经济博弈论_Chapter09

雇员的技能 The skill of an employee 车险或健康险的申请人的风险程度 for auto or The riskiness of an applicant pp health insurance. 密封式拍卖中的保留价格 Reservation price in a sealed sealed-bid bid auction
Slide 2
不确定性与信息：应用 Uncertainty y and Information: Applications
激励合同的本质 Nature of incentive contracts 公司的组织 Organization of companies 劳动力市场与耐用消费品市场 Markets for labor and for durable goods 政府对商业的管制 Government regulation of business 税收与支出政策的改变与选举的关系 Relation of tax and expenditure policy changes to elections 向委员会进行立法授权 Delegation of legislation to committees 孔雀巨大而华丽的尾巴 Peacock’s large and ornate tail 与家人 朋友 老师和同事的日常交往 与家人、朋友、老师和同事的日常交往 Daily interaction with family, friends, teachers, and coSlide 3 workers
不对称信息：基本思想 Asymmetric y Information: Basic Ideas
不掌握信息的参与者想做的事情 不掌握信息的参与者想做的事情： The less-informed player may want to do one of the following:

获取信息或从虚假信息中过滤出真实信息 Elicit information or filter truth from

一国军备数量和准备情况 国军备数量和准备情况 The weaponry and readiness of a country
甚至即使知道可能的行动，某一参与者所采取的实际 行动也不太可能被其他参与者观察到 行动也不太可能被其他参与者观察到。 Even when the possible actions are known, the actual actions taken by y one player p y may y not be observable to others.
不确定性与信息 Uncertainty and Information
第9章 Chapter 9
不确定性与信息 Uncertainty and Information
关于结果的不确定性存在于许多博弈中。 Uncertainty about outcomes exists in many of the games. 有时这一不确定性是参与者的混合策略导致的，但更多时候是博弈所固 有的东西。 Sometimes this uncertainty is the result of the players’ mixed strategies, but more often it is something intrinsic to the game. 在某些博弈中，每个参与者可能不确知其他人的动机或收益；这里的不 确定性是不对称的，因为这一另外的参与者完全清楚地知道他自己的收 益。 In some games, each player may be unsure about the motives or payoffs of the others; here the uncertainty is asymmetric, because t the e ot other e p player aye knows o s his s own o payoffs payo s perfectly pe ect y well. e 对信息的操纵成为一个重要的策略维度。 Manipulation of the information becomes an important dimension of strategy.
不确定性与信息：内容提要 Uncertainty y and Information: Outline
不对称信息：基本思想 不对称信息 基本思想 Asymmetric Information: Basic Ideas 直接传达 或“直说” 直接传达，或 直说 Direct Communication, or “Cheap Talk” 信号传递和筛选 Signaling and Screening 激励支付（奖金） Incentive Payments 信号传递博弈中的均衡：完美贝叶斯均衡 Equilibrium in Signaling Games: Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium *贝叶斯纳什均衡 Bayesian Nash Equilibrium 关于信号传递与筛选的证据 Evidence about Signaling and Screening Slide 4

投保房主在洪水或地震中的实际损失金额 投保房主在洪水或地震中的实际损失金额。 The actual dollar value of loss to an insured homeowner in a flood or an earthquake
Slide 9
不对称信息：基本思想 Asymmetric y Information: Basic Ideas 通过操纵不对称信息，你可以影响博弈 的均衡结果。 的均衡结果 By manipulation of asymmetric information, you can affect the equilibrium outcome of a game. 因此这一操纵本身成为一个策略博弈。 Th Therefore f such h manipulation i l ti itself it lf becomes a game of strategy.

收益 payoffs 内在特征 innate characteristics 行动 Actions 结果 outcomes
Slide 5
不对称信息：基本思想 Asymmetric y Information: Basic Ideas
每个参与者都非常了解自己的偏好或收益 每个参与者都非常了解自己的偏好或收益， 但对其他参与者这些方面的了解就模糊许多。 Each player know his own preference or payoffs quite well but those of the other players much more vaguely.
Slide 6
不对称信息：基本思想 Asymmetric y Information: Basic Ideas
参与者对于自身内在特征的知识也有类似情况。 The same is true for a p player y ’s knowledge g of his own innate characteristics.
例子：扑克牌中的欺诈手段以误导对手关于你手中牌的判
断 Bluffing in poker to mislead others about your cards

有选择地披露真实信息
例子 Examples?
Reveal selected information truthfully
Slide 11
Slide 7
不对称信息：基本思想 Asymmetric y Information: Basic Ideas
有时某一参与者可能的行动选择不完全为其他参与者 所了解。 Sometimes i the h actions i available il bl to one player l are not fully known to other players.
falsehood
雇主想要找出未来雇员的技能，或现有雇员的努力程度
An employer wants to find out the skill of a prospective employee and the effort of a current employee. 保险公司想要知道申请人的风险级别，索赔人的损失程度， 保险公司想要知道申请人的风险级别 索赔人的损失程度 以及可以减轻保险公司责任的索赔人的任何有影响的过失。 An insurance company wants to know a applicant’s risk class, class the amount of loss of a claimant, and any contributory negligence by the Slide 12 claimant that would reduce its liability.
不对称信息：基本思想 Asymmetric y Information: Basic Ideas
不掌握信息的参与者想做的事情（续）： 掌握信息的参与 想做的事情 续 The less-informed player may want to do one of the following:

保持无知：使自己无从知道对手的策略行动可以使 自 免受其承诺或威胁的影响 自己免受其承诺或威胁的影响。 Remain ignorant: Being unable to know your opponent’s strategic move can immunize you against his commitments and threats.


在边缘政策博弈中的风险忍受度 game of brinkmanship Risk tolerance in a g p 在谈判中的耐心 Patience in bargaining 在国际关系中的和平意愿或好战倾向 Peaceful f l or warlike lik intentions i i in i international relations