Valuation model

自由现金流贴现模型属于什么模型
自由现金流贴现模型是一种以自由现金流为基础的报酬评价方法，其用于判断
转手投资的价值是否超过原决策者的无风险报酬水平，然后做出相应的投资决定。

以该模型为基础，在报酬测算之外，还可以用来比较来自不同投资机会之间的价值。

自由现金流贴现模型是以股权价值分析模型，即DCF正规估值模型（Discounted Cash Flow Valuation Model）为基础，进行完善而形成的。

自由现金流贴现模型重点分析的是未来收入的来源，考虑投资的风险等因素，
一般采用的是DCF（贴现现金流量法）模型，即预测被估计公司未来几年的现金流量，并结合当前的股票或期货市场的收益率，从而获得未来的贴现现金流量，从而使估计公司的价值。

自由现金流贴现模型以风险调整报酬率进行贴现回报，即在得出现金流量以后，再加上与风险相关的报酬率，最终得出该投资机会的正常报酬率，再加以适当的折扣率，适用于投资市场的实际情况，最终得出各个股票的价值评估。

自由现金流贴现模型也为投资者提供了较为理智的成本来甄别盈亏，它以公司
未来可预期现金流回报及其相关风险等因素来做出衡量，进而判断投资机会的价值，更加贴近实际，以此来指导投资决策。

自由现金流贴现模型最终将现金流量均衡在未来和现在之间，并调整为与当前市场收益率成比例的效果，作为参考材料来判断投资收益的价值。

股票估价模型下股票内在价值的计算公式
股票估价模型（valuation models）是用于计算股票内在价值的
理论模型，常用的包括贴现现金流量模型（DCF）、股利贴现模型（DDM）和相对估值模型等。

1.贴现现金流量模型（Discounted Cash Flow Model，DCF）：基
于公司未来现金流量的贴现值来估计股票的内在价值。

其计算公式为：内在价值= Σ [CF / (1+r)^n]
其中，CF表示每年的自由现金流（Free Cash Flow），r表示折
现率，n表示未来现金流的年份。

2.股利贴现模型（Dividend Discount Model，DDM）：假设股票
价值等于未来股息的现值之和，其计算公式为：
内在价值= Σ [D / (1+r)^n]
其中，D表示每年的股息（dividend），r表示折现率，n表示未
来股息的年份。

3.相对估值模型：通过与同行业或同类股的相对估值比较来估算
股票的内在价值。

常用的相对估值指标包括市盈率（PE ratio）、市
净率（PB ratio）、市销率（PS ratio）等。

相对估值模型没有明确
的公式，而是通过比较公司股价与相关指标的平均水平来评估股票的
内在价值。

需要注意的是，股票估价模型仅是一种估算内在价值的理论模型，具体的估价结果还需要结合公司的财务状况、市场环境和行业发展等
因素进行综合分析。

此外，不同的估价模型适用于不同类型的公司和
不同投资目标，投资者在使用估价模型时需要综合考虑多个因素来进
行判断。

剩余收益估价模型目录概念简述计算公式启示编辑本段概念剩余收益估价模型（RIM Residual Income Valuation Model）又被称为EBO模型，最早是由爱德华兹（Edwards）和贝尔（Bell）于1961年提出来的，但并没有引起理论界多大的重视，沉寂了很长一段时间；1995年美国学者奥尔森（Ohlson）在其文章《权益估价中的收益、帐面价值和股利》中对这个方法进行了系统的阐述，建立了公司权益价值与会计变量之间的关系，使该方法重新得到理论界的重视，并成为近十年来美国财务学、会计学界最热门的研究主题之一。

编辑本段简述所谓剩余收益是指公司的净利润与股东所要求的报酬之差。

剩余收益的基本观点认为企业只有赚取了超过股东要求的报酬的净利润，才算是获得了正的剩余收益；如果只能获得相当于股东要求的报酬的利润，仅仅是实现了正常收益。

即RIt+1=NIt+1－rBVt，其中RIt+1代表t+1期的剩余收益，NIt+1代表t期的企业净收益，BVt是t期企业权益的帐面价值，r 是投资者要求的必要报酬率。

剩余收益需要进行资本成本的调整从而反映会计上未加确认但事实上存在的权益资本的机会成本。

剩余收益模型使用公司权益的帐面价值和预期剩余收益的现值来表示股票的内在价值。

在考虑货币时间价值以及投资者所要求的风险报酬情况下，将企业预期剩余收益按照一定的贴现率进行贴现以后加上当期权益价值就是股票的内在价值。

编辑本段计算公式剩余收益估价模型的基本公式是：PV0=BV0+ΣRIt*(1+r)-t可以进一步的考虑，企业净收益的增加来源是什么？NIt+1=ROEt+1*BVtROEt+1代表t+1期的净资产报酬率。

所以上述模型可以表示为：P0＝BV0+∑（ROEt－r）BVt-1*(1+r)-t而净资产报酬率ROE，可以根据杜邦财务分析体系再分解为资产报酬率、销售净利率、权益乘数等，所有这些参数都可以从企业的财务报表中得到，至于投资者要求的必要报酬率，可以根据CAPM模型或者是APT模型进行估算。

行业估值方法行业估值是对特定行业的企业进行评估和估价的过程。

在投资决策、并购交易或财务分析中，行业估值方法被广泛运用。

以下是几种常见的行业估值方法：1. 市场倍数法（Multiples Valuation）市场倍数法是最常用的行业估值方法之一。

它通过比较目标企业与同行业其他企业的财务指标的比率来确定企业的估值。

常见的市场倍数包括市盈率（PE ratio）、市销率（PS ratio）和市净率（PB ratio）等。

根据行业的不同，选择适当的倍数指标可以更准确地估算企业的价值。

2. 投资回报率法（Return on Investment）投资回报率法是一种评估企业价值的常用方法。

它基于企业过去和预期的现金流量，通过计算资本回报率（ROIC）或折现现金流量来估值企业。

投资回报率法考虑了企业的盈利能力和未来现金流的可持续性，对长期投资具有较高的预测能力。

3. 价值驱动模型（Value Driver Model）价值驱动模型是一种基于企业价值创造要素的估值方法。

它通过分析企业的价值创造驱动因素（如市场份额、利润率、增长率等），根据这些因素的变化来估算企业的价值。

价值驱动模型可以帮助投资者更好地理解行业内企业价值的相对优劣，并做出相应的投资决策。

4. 交易对比法（Transaction Comparable）交易对比法是一种通过相似交易来估值企业的方法。

投资者可以参考行业内同类企业的交易价格和估值指标，将其应用到目标企业上以获取估值参考。

交易对比法能够更直观地了解行业内近期的估值水平，为投资决策提供重要线索。

综上所述，行业估值方法是投资决策和财务分析的重要工具。

通过市场倍数法、投资回报率法、价值驱动模型和交易对比法等行业估值方法，投资者可以更准确地评估和估价企业的价值，从而做出明智的投资决策。

Project SolidgoldNames and CasesProject Name Project SolidgoldIncome Statement Case2Base CaseCase 11Upside CaseCase 22Base CaseCase 33Downside CaseCase 44MS CaseCase 55SpareBalance Sheet Case1No Change to Balance Sheet Case 11No Change to Balance Sheet Case 2215% (91:9) @ RMB1.00Case 3315% (91:9) @ RMB1.05Case 4415% (91:9) @ RMB1.10Case 5515% (91:9) @ RMB1.20 Dividend Payout Method3No DividendCase 11Tier 1Case 22CARCase 33No DividendNotes1.Project Solidgold Base Case, No Change to Balance Sheet, No Dividend SummaryHistorical Year Ending December 31,Forecast Year Ending December 31,RMB MM2001A2002A2003A2004A2005F2006F2007F2008F2009F2010FSelected Income Statement DataNet Interest Income66,45778,86690,93998,940102,474111,338120,523130,423141,172152,526 Other Operating Income 5,4796,2867,6828,0588,3469,0689,81610,62211,49812,422 Net Revenue71,93685,15298,621106,998110,820120,406130,339141,045152,669164,948 Operating Expenses (Ex Provisions)(39,498)(42,746)(50,805)(45,396)(46,305)(50,015)(53,568)(57,429)(61,908)(66,629) Operating Profit Before Provisions32,43842,40647,81661,60264,51570,39176,77183,61790,76198,319 Provisions for Losses(21,838)(20,011)(10,006)(2,326)2,928(4,882)(5,175)(5,489)(5,827)(6,190) Income Before Taxes10,60022,39537,81059,27667,44265,50971,59678,12784,93492,129 % Growth111.3%68.8%56.8%13.8%-2.9%9.3%9.1%8.7%8.5% Pre-Provision Income26,46533,53935,63643,41442,25948,77353,14457,83562,73367,917 Net Income4,62713,52825,63041,08845,18643,89147,96952,34556,90661,726 % Growth192.4%89.5%60.3%10.0%-2.9%9.3%9.1%8.7%8.5%Selected Balance Sheet DataGross Loans1,528,0981,783,4822,126,9892,135,4462,293,9832,464,5252,647,7672,844,6593,056,2173,283,537 % Growth16.7%19.3%0.4%7.4%7.4%7.4%7.4%7.4%7.4% Corporate1,319,0601,512,3731,763,0201,746,3751,873,9392,011,0032,158,1002,315,9652,485,3872,667,212 % of Gross Loans86.3%84.8%82.9%81.8%81.7%81.6%81.5%81.4%81.3%81.2% Retail209,038271,109363,969389,071420,044453,521489,667528,693570,830616,325 % of Gross Loans13.7%15.2%17.1%18.2%18.3%18.4%18.5%18.6%18.7%18.8% Total Assets2,513,7062,854,2073,556,9403,806,8904,122,5694,458,5934,822,0655,215,1535,640,0616,099,230 % Growth13.5%24.6%7.0%8.3%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.1%8.1% Average IEA(including cash, all AFS bonds & equity securities)2,757,9413,220,8503,568,1623,794,2774,122,9354,478,7464,863,3255,310,7005,791,673 % Growth16.8%10.8% 6.3%8.7%8.6%8.6%9.2%9.1%Gross Deposits2,466,1082,822,7443,195,6733,377,7483,647,9683,939,8054,254,9904,595,3894,963,0205,360,062 % Growth14.5%13.2% 5.7%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0% Demand Deposits1,491,0631,726,6601,949,8602,034,0942,196,8222,372,5672,562,3732,767,3622,988,7513,227,852 Time Deposits975,0451,096,0841,245,8131,343,6541,451,1461,567,2381,692,6171,828,0261,974,2692,132,210 Average IBL2,601,0022,933,3543,315,2783,531,9323,802,4254,094,5574,410,0604,750,8035,118,806 % Growth12.8%13.0% 6.5%7.7%7.7%7.7%7.7%7.7%Total Demand Deposits60.5%61.2%61.0%60.2%60.2%60.2%60.2%60.2%60.2%60.2% Total Time Deposits39.5%38.8%39.0%39.8%39.8%39.8%39.8%39.8%39.8%39.8%Equity(146,346)(136,316)187,237205,220250,406294,297342,266394,612451,518513,244 % Growth-6.9%-237.4%9.6%22.0%17.5%16.3%15.3%14.4%13.7%Loan / Deposit62.0%63.2%66.6%63.2%62.9%62.6%62.2%61.9%61.6%61.3% Selected Profitability RatiosNIM (%)- 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.6% Non-Interest Income / Total Income (%)7.6%7.4%7.8%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5% Cost / Income (%)54.9%50.2%51.5%42.4%41.8%41.5%41.1%40.7%40.6%40.4% Cost (ex restructuring)/Income(%)54.6%49.3%47.0%41.6%20.1%19.8%19.4%19.0%18.9%18.7% ROAE (%)N/M N/M N/M20.9%19.8%16.1%15.1%14.2%13.5%12.8% ROAA (%)-0.5%0.8% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% Pre-Provision Income/Average Equity N/M N/M N/M22.1%18.5%17.9%16.7%15.7%14.8%14.1% Pre-Provision Income/Average Assets- 1.2% 1.1% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2%Selected Asset Quality DataNPLs319,190302,4121,945,81983,98468,81973,93679,43385,34091,68798,506 NPLs / Gross Loans20.9%17.0%91.5% 3.9% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% LLR - Loans199,325207,289118,81254,28449,56552,80756,29060,03364,05568,376 LLR / NPLs62.4%68.5% 6.1%64.6%72.0%71.4%70.9%70.3%69.9%69.4%Selected Capital Adequacy DataGross Tier I Ratio (%) 6.6% 5.8%9.6%9.2% 6.4% 6.0% 5.7% 5.4% 5.1% 4.8% Net Tier I Ratio (%) 6.6% 5.8% 5.9%7.5% 5.5% 5.1% 4.8% 4.4% 4.1% 3.8% Tier II Ratio (%)0.3% 1.1%0.6% 2.6% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% Total CAR (%)8.0%8.2%10.3%11.9%7.7%7.3% 6.9% 6.5% 6.2% 5.8% Equity / Assets (%)-5.8%-4.8% 5.3% 5.4% 6.1% 6.6%7.1%7.6%8.0%8.4% Dividend-------Dividend Payout Ratio0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Project Solidgold Base Case, No Change to Balance Sheet, No Dividend Offering SummaryNo Greenshoe Greenshoe of 0,000MM Shares, 0.0% RMB MM Current ProForma%%ProForma%%Size by Shares OfferedOffered Secondary Shares-0.0%9.0%-0.0%#DIV/0! Offered Primary Shares-0.0%91.0%-0.0%#DIV/0! Greenshoe-0.0%#DIV/0!Subtotal Offered--0.0%100.0%-0.0%#DIV/0! Other Existing194,230194,230100.0%194,230100.0%Total194,230194,230100.0%194,230100.0%RMB/Share---Size by ValueOffered Secondary Shares-#DIV/0!-#DIV/0!Offered Primary Shares-#DIV/0!-#DIV/0!Greenshoe-#DIV/0!Subtotal Offered-#DIV/0!-#DIV/0!Other Existing--#DIV/0!-#DIV/0!Total--#DIV/0!-#DIV/0!Project Solidgold Base Case, No Change to Balance Sheet, No Dividend AssumptionsHistorical Year Ending December 31,Forecast Year Ending December 31,RMB MM2001A2002A2003A2004A2005F2006F2007F2008F2009F2010F Macro EconomyPBOC 1 Yr Fixed Deposit Rate 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% PRC CPI Inflation Rate 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%AssetsLoan GrowthBill Discounting220.6%107.0%44.6%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0% Other Corporate12.2%13.5%-3.8%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3% Retail29.7%34.3% 6.9%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%YieldsTotal Corporate 5.8% 5.3% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% Total Retail 5.2% 4.8% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% Overall 5.2% 5.2% 5.1% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%LiabilitiesDeposits Growth14.5%13.3% 5.7%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%Deposit Interest Rate 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2%SG&A% of Net Revenue38.0%35.9%38.0%29.6%29.6%29.6%29.6%29.6%29.6%Project Solidgold Base Case, No Change to Balance Sheet, No Dividend Key RatiosHistorical Year Ending December 31,Forecast Year Ending December 31,RMB MM2001A2002A2003A2004A2005F2006F2007F2008F2009F2010F Loan / Deposit62.0%63.2%66.6%63.2%62.9%62.6%62.2%61.9%61.6%61.3%Selected Profitability RatiosNIM (%)- 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.6% Non-Interest Income / Total Income (%)7.6%7.4%7.8%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5% Cost / Income (%)54.9%50.2%51.5%42.4%41.8%41.5%41.1%40.7%40.6%40.4% Cost (ex restructuring)/Income(%)54.6%49.3%47.0%41.6%20.1%19.8%19.4%19.0%18.9%18.7% ROAE (%)N/M N/M N/M20.9%19.8%16.1%15.1%14.2%13.5%12.8% ROAA (%)-0.5%0.8% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% Pre-Provision Income/Average Equity N/M N/M N/M22.1%18.5%17.9%16.7%15.7%14.8%14.1% Pre-Provision Income/Average Assets- 1.2% 1.1% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2%Selected Asset Quality DataNPLs319,190302,4121,945,81983,98468,81973,93679,43385,34091,68798,506 NPLs / Gross Loans20.9%17.0%91.5% 3.9% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% LLR - Loans199,325207,289118,81254,28449,56552,80756,29060,03364,05568,376 LLR / NPLs62.4%68.5% 6.1%64.6%72.0%71.4%70.9%70.3%69.9%69.4%Selected Capital Adequacy DataGross Tier I Ratio (%) 6.6% 5.8%9.6%9.2% 6.4% 6.0% 5.7% 5.4% 5.1% 4.8% Net Tier I Ratio (%) 6.6% 5.8% 5.9%7.5% 5.5% 5.1% 4.8% 4.4% 4.1% 3.8% Tier II Ratio (%)0.3% 1.1%0.6% 2.6% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% Total CAR (%)8.0%8.2%10.3%11.9%7.7%7.3% 6.9% 6.5% 6.2% 5.8% Equity / Assets (%)-5.8%-4.8% 5.3% 5.4% 6.1% 6.6%7.1%7.6%8.0%8.4% Dividend-------Dividend Payout Ratio0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Project Solidgold Base Case, No Change to Balance Sheet, No Dividend Income StatementHistorical Year Ending December 31,Forecast Year Ending December 31,RMB MM2001A2002A2003A2004A2005F2006F2007F2008F2009F2010F Interest Income110,147116,554132,471142,190147,066159,198171,912185,624200,489216,289 % Growth 5.8%13.7%7.3% 3.4%8.2%8.0%8.0%8.0%7.9% Loans and Advances to CustomersCorporate70,66373,23485,70089,88089,61396,611103,678111,262119,401128,136 % Growth 3.6%17.0% 4.9%-0.3%7.8%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3% Retail10,39812,53315,85418,74420,70122,35024,13126,05528,13130,373 % Growth20.5%26.5%18.2%10.4%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0% Other29,08630,78730,91733,56636,75240,23744,10348,30852,95757,780 % Growth 5.8%0.4%8.6%9.5%9.5%9.6%9.5%9.6%9.1%Interest Expense(43,690)(37,688)(41,532)(43,250)(44,592)(47,860)(51,389)(55,201)(59,317)(63,763) % Growth-13.7%10.2% 4.1% 3.1%7.3%7.4%7.4%7.5%7.5% Deposits from Customers(39,628)(34,511)(39,103)(39,278)(40,808)(44,073)(47,598)(51,406)(55,519)(59,960) % Growth-12.9%13.3%0.4% 3.9%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0% Other(4,062)(3,177)(2,429)(3,972)(3,784)(3,787)(3,791)(3,795)(3,799)(3,803) % Growth-21.8%-23.5%63.5%-4.7%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%Net Interest Income66,45778,86690,93998,940102,474111,338120,523130,423141,172152,526% Growth18.7%15.3%8.8% 3.6%8.7%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.0% Fee & Commission Income3,0893,6614,5815,9726,1856,7207,2757,8728,5219,206 % Growth18.5%25.1%30.4% 3.6%8.7%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.0% % of Total Net Revenue 4.3% 4.3% 4.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% Other Income2,3902,6253,1012,0862,1612,3472,5412,7502,9763,216 % Growth9.8%18.1%-32.7% 3.6%8.7%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.0% Net Revenue71,93685,15298,621106,998110,820120,406130,339141,045152,669164,948 % Growth18.4%15.8%8.5% 3.6%8.7%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.0% SG&A (Incl Others)(39,498)(42,746)(50,805)(45,396)(46,305)(50,015)(53,568)(57,429)(61,908)(66,629) % Growth8.2%18.9%-10.6% 2.0%8.0%7.1%7.2%7.8%7.6% % of Total Net Revenue54.9%50.2%51.5%42.4%41.8%41.5%41.1%40.7%40.6%40.4% D&A(6,295)(6,686)(7,122)(7,556)(6,389)(6,656)(6,625)(6,621)(6,888)(7,155) Operating Income32,43842,40647,81661,60264,51570,39176,77183,61790,76198,319 % Growth30.7%12.8%28.8% 4.7%9.1%9.1%8.9%8.5%8.3% Losses from Loan Impairments(21,838)(20,011)(10,006)(2,326)2,928(4,882)(5,175)(5,489)(5,827)(6,190) Earnings Before Tax10,60022,39537,81059,27667,44265,50971,59678,12784,93492,129 % Growth111.3%68.8%56.8%13.8%-2.9%9.3%9.1%8.7%8.5% Income Tax(5,973)(8,867)(12,180)(18,188)(22,256)(21,618)(23,627)(25,782)(28,028)(30,402) % Growth48.5%37.4%49.3%22.4%-2.9%9.3%9.1%8.7%8.5% Net Income4,62713,52825,63041,08845,18643,89147,96952,34556,90661,726 % Growth192.4%89.5%60.3%10.0%-2.9%9.3%9.1%8.7%8.5%Project Solidgold Base Case, No Change to Balance Sheet, No Dividend Balance SheetHistorical Year Ending December 31,Forecast Year Ending December 31,RMB MM2001A2002A2003A2004A2005F2006F2007F2008F2009F2010F AssetsCash314,726285,584330,749398,702421,303444,566469,591496,516525,490556,673 % Growth-9.3%15.8%20.5% 5.7% 5.5% 5.6% 5.7% 5.8% 5.9% Interbank Placements & Other79,230115,277239,040159,391164,173169,098174,171179,396184,778190,321 % Growth45.5%107.4%-33.3% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Loans and Advances to Customers1,328,7731,576,1932,008,1772,081,1622,245,6542,412,9912,592,7892,785,9762,993,5533,216,594 % Growth18.6%27.4% 3.6%7.9%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5% Corporate1,319,0601,512,3731,763,0201,746,3751,873,9392,011,0032,158,1002,315,9652,485,3872,667,212 % Growth14.7%16.6%-0.9%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3% Retail209,038271,109363,969389,071420,044453,521489,667528,693570,830616,325 % Growth29.7%34.3% 6.9%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0% Credit Card00001,2361,2731,3111,3511,3911,433 % Growth 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Provisions(199,325)(207,289)(118,812)(54,284)(49,565)(52,807)(56,290)(60,033)(64,055)(68,376) % Growth 4.0%-42.7%-54.3%-8.7% 6.5% 6.6% 6.6% 6.7% 6.7% Investments651,842757,642802,9361,006,4211,132,6151,275,7691,431,9701,602,3421,788,2061,990,763 % Growth16.2% 6.0%25.3%12.5%12.6%12.2%11.9%11.6%11.3% PP&E65,14163,73568,89966,65764,83662,74860,39357,77154,88351,729 % Growth-2.2%8.1%-3.3%-2.7%-3.2%-3.8%-4.3%-5.0%-5.7% Other Assets73,99455,776107,13994,55793,98993,42193,15193,15193,15193,151 % Growth-24.6%92.1%-11.7%-0.6%-0.6%-0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0% Total Assets2,513,7062,854,2073,556,9403,806,8904,122,5694,458,5934,822,0655,215,1535,640,0616,099,230 % Growth13.5%24.6%7.0%8.3%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.1%8.1%Equity & LiablilitiesInterbank Deposits134,374108,910115,271110,771110,771110,771110,771110,771110,771110,771 % Growth-19.0% 5.8%-3.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% Deposits from Customers2,466,6282,824,4443,200,0073,381,1613,651,6543,943,7864,259,2894,600,0324,968,0355,365,478 % Growth14.5%13.3% 5.7%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0% Subordinated Bonds and Other Debts00040,00040,00040,00040,00040,00040,00040,000 % Growth0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% Other Liabilities59,05057,16954,42569,73869,73869,73869,73869,73869,73869,738 % Growth-3.2%-4.8%28.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% Total Liabilities2,660,0522,990,5233,369,7033,601,6703,872,1634,164,2954,479,7984,820,5415,188,5445,585,987 % Growth12.4%12.7% 6.9%7.5%7.5%7.6%7.6%7.6%7.7%Total Shareholders' Equity(146,346)(136,316)187,237205,220250,406294,297342,266394,612451,518513,244 % Growth-6.9%-237.4%9.6%22.0%17.5%16.3%15.3%14.4%13.7%Total Equity & Liabilities2,513,7062,854,2073,556,9403,806,8904,122,5694,458,5934,822,0655,215,1535,640,0616,099,230 % Growth13.5%24.6%7.0%8.3%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.1%8.1%Project Solidgold Base Case, No Change to Balance Sheet, No Dividend Assumptions (Assets)Historical Year Ending December 31,Forecast Year Ending December 31,RMB MM2001A2002A2003A2004A2005F2006F2007F2008F2009F2010FMacro Economic AssumptionsPBOC 1 Yr Fixed Deposit Rate 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% PRC CPI Inflation Rate 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%Interest Earning Assets AssumptionsCash N/A8.0%14.1%171.1% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%Loan Distribution (% of Total Loans)CorporateBill Discounting 1.0% 2.8% 4.9%7.0%7.1%7.1%7.1%7.2%7.2%7.3% Other Corporate85.3%82.0%78.0%74.7%74.6%74.5%74.4%74.2%74.1%74.0% Fixed Asset Loans29.5%25.4%27.2%29.5%29.5%29.4%29.4%29.3%29.3%29.2% Working Capital Loans51.5%52.4%47.4%42.2%42.2%42.1%42.0%41.9%41.9%41.8% Others 4.4% 4.1% 3.4% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9% Total Corporate86.3%84.8%82.9%81.8%81.7%81.6%81.5%81.4%81.3%81.2% RetailConsumption Loans12.4% 1.6%14.0%14.8%14.9%15.0%15.1%15.1%15.2%15.3% Home Mortgage0.9%12.0% 2.7% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Other Retail ex Cards0.4% 1.6%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4% Total Retail13.7%15.2%17.1%18.2%18.3%18.4%18.5%18.6%18.7%18.8%Loan GrowthCorporateBill Discounting N/A220.6%107.0%44.6%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0% Other Corporate N/A12.2%13.5%-3.8%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3% Fixed Asset Loans N/A0.8%27.6%9.0%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3% Working Capital Loans N/A18.9%7.8%-10.6%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3% Other Corporate N/A10.1%-1.9%-11.6%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3% RetailConsumption Loans N/A-85.2%964.4% 6.6%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0% Home Mortgage N/A1484.6%-73.0%8.5%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0% Other Retail ex Cards N/A358.9%-70.0% 5.9%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0% Total Retail N/A29.7%34.3% 6.9%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0% Total Loan N/A16.7%19.3%0.4%7.4%7.4%7.4%7.4%7.4%7.4%Banking CardNew Cards Issued % 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% Churn Rate % 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Active Accounts90.0%90.0%90.0%90.0%90.0%90.0% Per Card Receivable2,0002,0002,0002,0002,0002,000 Receivables as % of Gross Credit Limit60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0% Commission Fee as % of Receivables 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% Revolving Balances as % of Total Receivables 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% Interest Rate%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Interest YieldsCorporateFixed Asset Loans 6.3% 6.0% 5.7% 5.4% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% Working Capital Loans 6.8% 6.0% 5.5% 5.3% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% Bill Discounting 4.8% 3.4% 2.9% 3.7% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% Other Corporate 3.3% 2.9% 2.7% 2.2% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% Total Corporate 5.8% 5.3% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% RetailConsumption Loans 5.4% 5.4% 4.6% 5.2% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% Home Mortgage 5.2% 5.0% 5.0% 4.9% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% Other Retail 5.1% 5.2% 5.4% 5.3% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% Total Retail 5.2% 4.8% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% Total Loans 5.2% 5.2% 5.1% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%Other Interest Earning AssetsGrowthFinancial Assets at Fair Value N/A914.5%18.7%152.7% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Statutory Reserve Deposits N/A16.7%31.7%31.6%8.4%8.3%8.3%8.3%8.3%8.2% Other Cash N/A-28.1%-0.8%-23.9% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Placements with Other Financial Institutions N/A44.1%108.3%-34.5% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Interest YieldsCash0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% Financial Assets at Fair Value0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% Statutory Reserve Deposits and Others 1.7% 2.5% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% Placements with Other Financial Institutions 3.7% 2.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%Fee Income and OtherBank Card Fee Income% of Net Interest Income0.6%0.8% 1.1% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% Other Fee Income% of Net Interest Income 4.1% 3.8% 3.9% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% Other Income% of Net Interest Income 3.6% 3.3% 3.4% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1%Project Solidgold Base Case, No Change to Balance Sheet, No Dividend Assumptions (Liabilities)Historical Year Ending December 31,Forecast Year Ending December 31,RMB MM2001A2002A2003A2004A2005F2006F2007F2008F2009F2010F Interest Bearing Liabilities AssumptionsOrdinary & Treasury DepositsGrowthCorporateDemand Deposits N/A11.4%10.5% 1.9%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0% Time Deposits N/A 6.4%13.0%13.5%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0% RetailDemand Deposits N/A28.3%18.9%10.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0% Time Deposits N/A14.9%13.9% 5.7%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0% Certificates of Deposit N/A226.9%154.9%-21.3%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0% Total Deposits N/A14.5%13.3% 5.7%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%Deposit Distribution (% of Total Deposit)CorporateDemand Deposits44.7%43.5%42.5%40.9%40.9%40.9%40.9%40.9%40.9%40.9% Time Deposits11.6%10.8%10.8%11.6%11.6%11.6%11.6%11.6%11.6%11.6% RetailDemand Deposits15.7%17.6%18.5%19.2%19.2%19.2%19.2%19.2%19.2%19.2% Time Deposits27.9%28.0%28.2%28.2%28.2%28.2%28.2%28.2%28.2%28.2% Certificates of Deposit0.0%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%Currency% RMB94.1%95.0%95.0%96.2%96.2%96.2%96.2%96.2%96.2%96.2% % Others 5.9% 5.0% 5.0% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8%Interest RatesCorporateDemand Deposits 1.1%0.9% 1.0%0.7% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% Time Deposits 2.5% 1.9% 1.8% 1.6% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% RetailDemand Deposits 1.1%0.8%0.8%0.7% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% Time Deposits 2.5% 2.0% 1.9% 2.0% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% Certificates of Deposit 2.3% 2.1% 2.3% 2.6% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% Total 1.6% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2%Other Interest Bearing Liabilities% of Total LiabilitiesDue to Banks 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Interest RatesDue to Banks 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.6% 2.1% 2.7% 3.1% 3.4% 3.5% Operating Expenses AssumptionsSG&A / Net Revenue (%)General and Administrative25.7%24.5%27.2%21.7%21.7%21.7%21.7%21.7%21.7%21.7% Other12.3%11.4%10.8%7.9%7.9%7.9%7.9%7.9%7.9%7.9%Asset Quality AssumptionsNPLs / Total Loans (%)CorporateFixed Asset Loans 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% Working Capital Loans 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.3% 3.0% 2.8% 2.5% 2.3% Bill Discounting 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% Other Corporate 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9% 2.8% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% RetailConsumption Loans 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9% 2.8% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% Home Mortgage 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9% 2.8% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% Other Retail 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9% 2.8% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% Total 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%ProvisionsTarget Specific LLR / NPLs57.7%62.6% 5.0%39.2%39.2%39.2%39.2%39.2%39.2%39.2% Target General Provisions / Loan Balances 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% Charge off / Total NPL 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%Project Solidgold Base Case, No Change to Balance Sheet, No Dividend Selected Assets - CashDetailed Historical Year Ending December 31,Forecast Year Ending December 31,RMB MM2001A2002A2003A2004A2005F2006F2007F2008F2009F2010F Cash and Balances With Central BanksCash (Interest Bearing, Note 14, KPMG)Beginning Balance66,18668,17270,21772,32374,49376,728 PF Adjustments-Adjusted Beginning Balance66,18668,17270,21772,32374,49376,728 Change1,9862,0452,1072,1702,2352,302 Ending Balance19,79921,39024,41166,18668,17270,21772,32374,49376,72879,030 % Growth8.04%14.12%171.13% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% Average Balance20,59522,90145,29967,17969,19471,27073,40875,61076,761 Yield0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00% Interest Income------Statutory Reserve Deposits (Note 14, KPMG)Beginning Balance235,884255,586276,864299,844324,662351,466 Change (RMB Related)19,49621,05622,74124,56026,52528,647 % Of RMB Deposits7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5% Change (Other Currency Related)205222240259279302 % Of Other Currency Deposits 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Ending Balance116,682136,121179,309235,884255,586276,864299,844324,662351,466380,414 % Growth16.66%31.73%31.55%8.35%8.33%8.30%8.28%8.26%8.24% Average Balance126,402157,715207,597245,735266,225288,354312,253338,064352,538Yield 1.71% 2.48% 1.77% 1.69% 1.69% 1.69% 1.69% 1.69% 1.69% 1.69% Interest Income-4,1614,5084,8825,2875,7245,969Other Cash (Note 14, KPMG)Ending Balance178,245128,073127,02996,63299,53199,53199,53199,53199,53199,531 % Growth-28.1%-0.8%-23.9% 3.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% Average Balance153,159127,551111,83198,08199,53199,53199,53199,53199,531Yield 1.71% 2.48% 1.77% 1.69% 1.69% 1.69% 1.69% 1.69% 1.69% 1.69% Interest Income1,6611,6851,6851,6851,6851,685Financial Assets at Fair Value (Note 15, KPMG)Ending Balance1241,2581,4933,7733,8864,0034,1234,2474,3744,505 % Growth-914.5%18.7%152.7% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Average Balance6911,3762,6333,8303,9444,0634,1854,3104,376Yield0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00% Interest Income----------Placements with Other Financial Institutions (Note 16, KPMG)Ending Balance79,106114,019237,547155,618160,287165,095170,048175,149180,404185,816 % Growth44.1%108.3%-34.5% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Average Balance96,563175,783196,583157,952162,691167,572172,599177,777183,110Yield 3.74% 2.87% 1.92% 1.76% 1.76% 1.76% 1.76% 1.76% 1.76% 1.76% Interest Income2,7802,8632,9493,0383,1293,223Project Solidgold Base Case, No Change to Balance Sheet, No Dividend Selected Assets - Loans and Advances to CustomersDetailed Historical Year Ending December 31,Forecast Year Ending December 31,RMB MM2001A2002A2003A2004A2005F2006F2007F2008F2009F2010F Corporate Loans (Note 17, KPMG)Fixed Asset LoansBeginning Balance630,672676,350725,399778,005834,426894,939 PF Adjustments------Adjusted Beginning Balance630,672676,350725,399778,005834,426894,939 Change (Net of New and Maturing Loans)45,92649,25252,82456,65460,76365,170 % Growth0.8%27.6%9.0%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3% Write-Offs(248)(203)(218)(233)(250)(268) Gross Ending Balance450,232453,625578,844630,672676,350725,399778,005834,426894,939959,840 Average Balance451,929516,235604,758653,511700,874751,702806,215864,682927,389 Average NPL Balance(22,544)(21,026)(22,551)(24,186)(25,940)(27,822) Adjusted Earning Average Balance630,966679,848729,151782,029838,742899,567 Yield 6.30% 5.96% 5.65% 5.42% 5.13% 5.13% 5.13% 5.13% 5.13% 5.13% Interest Income-32,35334,85937,38740,09843,00646,125Working Capital LoansBeginning Balance901,691966,9981,037,1251,112,3371,193,0041,279,521 PF Adjustments------Adjusted Beginning Balance901,691966,9981,037,1251,112,3371,193,0041,279,521 Change (Net of New and Maturing Loans)65,66170,41775,52481,00186,87593,175 % Growth18.9%7.8%-10.6%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3% Write-Offs(355)(290)(311)(334)(358)(384) Gross Ending Balance786,506935,1411,008,195901,691966,9981,037,1251,112,3371,193,0041,279,5211,372,312 Average Balance860,824971,668954,943934,3441,002,0611,074,7311,152,6711,236,2631,325,917 Average NPL Balance(32,232)(30,062)(32,242)(34,580)(37,088)(39,777) Adjusted Earning Average Balance902,112971,9991,042,4891,118,0901,199,1751,286,139 Yield 6.78% 6.04% 5.54% 5.34% 5.13% 5.13% 5.13% 5.13% 5.13% 5.13% Interest Income-46,25549,83953,45357,33061,48765,946Other CorporateBeginning Balance63,62968,23773,18678,49484,18690,291 PF Adjustments------Adjusted Beginning Balance63,62968,23773,18678,49484,18690,291 Change (Net of New and Maturing Loans)4,6334,9695,3295,7166,1306,575 % Growth10.1%-1.9%-11.6%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3% Write-Offs(25)(20)(22)(24)(25)(27) Gross Ending Balance66,64873,35471,96663,62968,23773,18678,49484,18690,29196,839 Average Balance70,00172,66067,79865,93370,71275,84081,34087,23893,565 Average NPL Balance(2,275)(2,121)(2,275)(2,440)(2,617)(2,807) Adjusted Earning Average Balance63,65968,59073,56578,90084,62190,758 Yield 3.30% 2.85% 2.74% 2.24% 5.13% 5.13% 5.13% 5.13% 5.13% 5.13% Interest Income-1,9951,9911,5193,2643,5173,7724,0464,3394,654Bill DiscountingBeginning Balance150,383162,354175,294189,265204,350220,636 PF Adjustments------Adjusted Beginning Balance150,383162,354175,294189,265204,350220,636 Change (Net of New and Maturing Loans)12,03112,98814,02415,14116,34817,651 % Growth220.6%107.0%44.6%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0% Write-Offs(59)(49)(53)(57)(61)(66) Gross Ending Balance15,67450,253104,015150,383162,354175,294189,265204,350220,636238,221 Average Balance32,96477,134127,199156,369168,824182,280196,807212,493229,429 Average NPL Balance(5,394)(5,065)(5,468)(5,904)(6,375)(6,883) Adjusted Earning Average Balance150,974163,760176,811190,903206,118222,546 Yield 4.79% 3.35% 2.89% 3.68% 5.13% 5.13% 5.13% 5.13% 5.13% 5.13% Interest Income-7,7418,3979,0669,78810,56911,411Total Corporate Loans1,319,0601,512,3731,763,0201,746,3751,873,9392,011,0032,158,1002,315,9652,485,3872,667,212 KPMG Audited Numbers1,319,0601,512,3731,763,0201,746,3751,873,9392,011,0032,158,1002,315,9652,485,3872,667,212 Difference----------Project Solidgold Base Case, No Change to Balance Sheet, No Dividend Selected Assets - Loans and Advances to CustomersDetailed Historical Year Ending December 31,Forecast Year Ending December 31,RMB MM2001A2002A2003A2004A2005F2006F2007F2008F2009F2010F Retail LoansConsumption LoansBeginning Balance317,053342,293369,573399,028430,831465,168 PF Adjustments------Adjusted Beginning Balance317,053342,293369,573399,028430,831465,168 Change (Net of New and Maturing Loans)25,36427,38329,56631,92234,46637,213 % Growth-85.2%964.4% 6.6%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0% Write-Offs(125)(103)(111)(120)(129)(140) Gross Ending Balance189,25727,940297,402317,053342,293369,573399,028430,831465,168502,242 Average Balance108,599162,671307,228329,673355,933384,301414,930447,999483,705 Average NPL Balance------Adjusted Earning Average Balance329,673355,933384,301414,930447,999483,705 Yield 5.36% 5.42% 4.58% 5.16% 5.12% 5.12% 5.12% 5.12% 5.12% 5.12% Interest Income16,86918,21319,66521,23222,92424,751Home MortgageBeginning Balance62,91667,92573,33879,18385,49492,308 PF Adjustments------Adjusted Beginning Balance62,91667,92573,33879,18385,49492,308 Change (Net of New and Maturing Loans)5,0335,4345,8676,3356,8407,385 % Growth1484.6%-73.0%8.5%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0% Write-Offs(25)(20)(22)(24)(26)(28) Gross Ending Balance13,538214,51957,97562,91667,92573,33879,18385,49492,30899,665 Average Balance114,029136,24760,44665,42070,63176,26182,33988,90195,986 Average NPL Balance------Adjusted Earning Average Balance65,42070,63176,26182,33988,90195,986 Yield 5.18% 5.04% 5.01% 4.87% 5.12% 5.12% 5.12% 5.12% 5.12% 5.12% Interest Income3,3483,6143,9024,2134,5494,912Other RetailBeginning Balance9,1029,82710,61011,45512,36813,354 PF Adjustments------Adjusted Beginning Balance9,1029,82710,61011,45512,36813,354 Change (Net of New and Maturing Loans)7287868499169891,068 % Growth358.9%-70.0% 5.9%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0% Write-Offs(4)(3)(3)(3)(4)(4) Gross Ending Balance6,24328,6508,5929,1029,82710,61011,45512,36813,35414,418 Average Balance17,44718,6218,8479,46410,21811,03311,91212,86113,886 Average NPL Balance------Adjusted Earning Average Balance9,46410,21811,03311,91212,86113,886 Yield 5.14% 5.22% 5.36% 5.31% 5.12% 5.12% 5.12% 5.12% 5.12% 5.12% Interest Income484523565610658711Total Retail Loans209,038271,109363,969389,071420,044453,521489,667528,693570,830616,325 KPMG Audited Numer209,038271,109363,969389,071420,044453,521489,667528,693570,830616,325 Difference----------。

UE估值模型1. 简介UE估值模型（User Engagement Valuation Model）是一种用于评估用户参与度和价值的模型。

它通过分析用户在产品或服务中的参与程度，结合相关数据指标，对用户行为进行量化评估，并以此来估算用户的价值。

UE估值模型的主要目标是帮助企业更好地了解用户，优化产品和服务策略，提高用户参与度和满意度，并最终实现商业目标。

2. UE估值模型的构成要素UE估值模型主要由以下几个构成要素组成：2.1 用户参与度指标用户参与度指标是衡量用户在产品或服务中参与程度的关键指标。

常见的用户参与度指标包括：•活跃用户数：统计某一时间段内使用产品或服务的独立用户数量。

•使用时长：衡量每个用户在产品或服务上花费的时间。

•使用频率：统计每个用户在某一时间段内使用产品或服务的次数。

•互动行为：记录每个用户在产品或服务中进行的互动行为，如点赞、评论、分享等。

2.2 用户价值评估指标用户价值评估指标用于量化每个用户对企业的贡献价值。

常见的用户价值评估指标包括：•转化率：衡量用户从产品或服务的普通使用者转变为付费用户的比例。

•平均收入：统计每个用户在产品或服务中带来的平均收入。

•用户生命周期价值（LTV）：预测每个用户在其使用周期内对企业的总收益。

2.3 数据分析工具和技术为了实施UE估值模型，需要借助数据分析工具和技术来处理和分析相关数据。

常用的数据分析工具和技术包括：•数据收集工具：如Google Analytics、Mixpanel等，用于收集用户行为数据。

•数据处理和分析工具：如Python、R等编程语言，用于处理和分析大量的用户行为数据。

•统计分析方法：如回归分析、聚类分析等，用于探索用户参与度与价值之间的关系。

3. UE估值模型的应用场景UE估值模型可以广泛应用于各个行业和领域，特别适用于以下几个场景：3.1 电子商务在电子商务领域，UE估值模型可以帮助企业了解用户在购物过程中的参与程度，并根据不同用户群体的参与度和价值，制定个性化的营销策略。

AVM技术实现方式什么是AVM技术？AVM（Automated Valuation Model）技术是一种自动化估值模型，用于评估不动产的价值。

它是通过使用大数据、机器学习和统计分析等技术，结合市场数据和相关因素，来预测不动产的市场价值。

AVM技术在房地产行业中被广泛应用，可以帮助评估公司、金融机构、房地产开发商以及个人投资者等快速准确地确定不动产的价值。

它可以有效地提高评估的效率和准确性，降低了人工评估的成本和错误率。

AVM技术实现方式1. 数据收集与预处理在实现AVM技术之前，首先需要收集和整理大量的市场数据。

这些数据包括历史交易记录、物业特征、地理位置信息、经济指标等。

收集到的数据需要经过预处理，包括去除异常值、填充缺失值、标准化等操作，以保证数据质量和一致性。

2. 特征工程特征工程是AVM模型建立过程中非常重要的一步。

通过对收集到的原始数据进行特征提取和变换，可以得到更有价值的特征。

常用的特征包括房屋面积、地理位置、周边设施、交通状况等。

同时，还可以结合领域知识和经验对特征进行组合和衍生，以提高模型的预测能力。

3. 模型选择与建立在AVM技术中，常用的模型包括线性回归模型、支持向量机模型、决策树模型等。

选择适合的模型需要综合考虑数据的特点、问题需求以及计算资源等因素。

在建立模型之前，需要将数据划分为训练集和测试集，并进行交叉验证以评估不同模型的性能。

4. 模型训练与优化通过使用训练集对选定的模型进行参数估计和优化，从而得到最佳的模型。

训练过程中需要注意过拟合和欠拟合问题，采用正则化方法或调整参数来提高模型的泛化能力。

5. 模型评估与验证在完成模型训练后，需要使用测试集对模型进行评估和验证。

常用的评估指标包括均方误差（MSE）、平均绝对误差（MAE）等。

通过比较不同模型的性能，选择最优的模型用于实际应用。

6. 模型部署与应用在经过验证的AVM模型可以部署到实际应用中，进行不动产估值工作。

用户可以通过输入相关的物业特征和信息，即可获得相应的市场价值预测结果。

wind公司价值估值模型表格英文回答：Valuation models are used to estimate the value of a company, such as Wind Corporation. There are several valuation models that can be used to determine the value of a company, including the discounted cash flow (DCF) model, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio model, and the comparable company analysis (CCA) model.The DCF model is a widely used valuation model that estimates the present value of a company's future cash flows. It takes into account the company's projected cash flows, the discount rate, and the terminal value. By discounting the projected cash flows back to their present value, the DCF model provides an estimate of the company's intrinsic value.The P/E ratio model is a simpler valuation model that compares a company's price-to-earnings ratio with its peersin the industry. The P/E ratio is calculated by dividing the company's market price per share by its earnings per share. By comparing the company's P/E ratio with the industry average, an estimate of the company's value can be derived.The CCA model is another commonly used valuation model that compares a company's financial metrics, such as revenue, earnings, and cash flow, with those of similar companies in the industry. By identifying comparable companies and analyzing their financial performance, an estimate of the company's value can be determined.In addition to these valuation models, there are other factors that can influence the value of a company. These include the company's growth prospects, market conditions, industry trends, and competitive landscape. It is important to consider these factors when performing a valuation analysis.中文回答：估值模型用于估计公司的价值，例如Wind公司。

剩余收益估价模型剩余收益估价模型(Residual Income Valuation Model)[编辑]剩余收益估价模型概述剩余收益模型（RIM）又被称为EBO模型，最早是由爱德华兹（Edwards）和贝尔（Bell）于 1961 年提出来的，但并没有引起理论界多大的重视，沉寂了很长一段时间；1995年美国学者奥尔森（Ohlson）在其文章《权益估价中的收益、帐面价值和股利》中对这个方法进行了系统的阐述，建立了公司权益价值及会计变量之间的关系，使该方法重新得到理论界的重视，并成为近十年来美国财务学、会计学界最热门的研究主题之一。

所谓剩余收益是指公司的净利润及股东所要求的报酬之差。

剩余收益的基本观点认为企业只有赚取了超过股东要求的报酬的净利润，才算是获得了正的剩余收益；如果只能获得相当于股东要求的报酬的利润，仅仅是实现了正常收益。

即RI t+ 1= NI t+ 1−rBV t，其中RI t+ 1代表 t+1 期的剩余收益，NI t+ 1代表 t+1 期的企业净收益，BV t是 t期企业权益的帐面价值，r 是投资者要求的必要报酬率。

剩余收益需要进行资本成本的调整从而反映会计上未加确认但事实上存在的权益资本的机会成本。

剩余收益模型使用公司权益的帐面价值和预期剩余收益的现值来表示股票的内在价值。

在考虑货币时间价值以及投资者所要求的风险报酬情况下，将企业预期剩余收益按照一定的贴现率进行贴现以后加上当期权益价值就是股票的内在价值。

[编辑]剩余收益估价模型的公式剩余收益估价模型的基本公式是：可以进一步的考虑，企业净收益的增加来源是什么？ROE t+ 1代表t+1期的净资产报酬率。

所以上述模型可以表示为：而净资产报酬率ROE，可以根据杜邦财务分析体系再分解为资产报酬率、销售净利率、权益乘数等，所有这些参数都可以从企业的财务报表中得到，至于投资者要求的必要报酬率，可以根据CAPM模型或者是APT模型进行估算。

[编辑]对剩余收益估价模型的评价这个模型采纳了折现现金流量模型中货币的时间价值、风险－收益对等原则的优点，同时及传统的方法又有不同，不是从利润分配角度出发，而是从企业的价值创造（ROE）观点考虑问题。

最新修改
增加了FCFE估值、DDM估值、APV估值、EVA估值和AE估值。

原先的估值对应FCFF估值。

其他估值模型有些数是链接到更改了自由现金流定义＝ EBIT×（1-所得税率）＋折旧－资本支出－非现金性流动资本变化
预测前首先需要自己输入的数据
3主营收入及成本：各公司收入及成本的预测方法不尽相同，需要分析师自己做
4预测假设：各种假设条件
5固定资产预测：历史折旧和摊销
7损益表及利润分配：2003-2004A利润数据
8资产负债表：2003-2004历史数据
7损益表及利润分配、8资产负债表：无公式的单元格需要手动填入，如一些特殊会计科目
DCF估值（FCFF）：分析日期、股本结构，假设条件中的“第二阶段增长率、长期增长率、应付债券利率、β”。

注意：第二阶段(201其他估值模型：各假设条件（第二阶段年数也不可更改）
11输出结果：2003-2004年经营活动现金流量、投资活动现金流量、融资活动现金流量
值。

其他估值模型有些数是链接到FCFF的，因此FCFF的估值要做全券利率、β”。

注意：第二阶段(2010-2017)年数不可更改。

简述上市公司及其股票估值的主要方法上市公司是指已在证券交易所上市的股票的公司。

上市公司的股票估值是投资者在证券市场上购买股票时所采取的一种分析和抉择行为，其实质是根据投资者对公司财务状况、盈利能力和股权以及未来发展潜力的判断和评估，来估计公司股票现价及其合理价格的过程。

一般而言，上市公司的股票估值的主要方法可以分为以下几种：一、市场相对价值法（Market-to-Market Method）市场相对价值法是比较市场上不同上市公司的股票价格和其他指标，通过分析市场相对价值的比较，来估算某只股票相对于其他股票的估值。

二、贝塔价值法（Beta Value Method）贝塔价值法是以市场上其他股票的价格波动作为参考，对某只股票的价格波动模型进行建立，以测定其价格是否高低于市场，从而进行估值。

三、折现现金流量法（Discounted Cash Flow Method）折现现金流量法是计算公司未来几年的经营现金流量状况，根据公司的实际情况，把现金流量现值化，从而估算上市公司的股票价格。

四、盈利能力估值法（Profitability Valuation Method）盈利能力估值法是运用公司的资产、负债、收益等财务数据，对公司的盈利能力和发展前景进行分析，从而估算出上市公司的股价。

五、定价模型法（Fair Value Model Method）定价模型法是指根据公司的财务报表、审计报告等，建立定价模型，从而估算出上市公司股票的估值。

总之，上市公司的股票估值的主要方法可以分为市场相对价值法、贝塔价值法、折现现金流量法、盈利能力估值法和定价模型法等。

在实际投资时，投资者应根据公司的实际情况，结合以上多种方法，以全面合理的方式来分析估算相应上市公司的股票价格。

单阶段估值模型
单阶段估值模型（Single-stage valuation model）是一种用于估计资产或企业价值的模型。

它基于一系列假设和预测，将所有现金流量（包括未来现金流量）汇总到一个时间点，以确定资产或企业的价值。

单阶段估值模型通常使用贴现现金流量（DCF）方法来估计资产或企业的价值。

它假设未来现金流量以一个稳定的增长率持续增长，并将这些现金流量贴现到一个合适的折现率上。

单阶段估值模型的主要优点是简单和直观，适用于预测较为稳定的现金流量和增长率。

然而，它的局限性在于没有考虑到不同时间段现金流量的不确定性和变化，可能导致估值不准确。

因此，在使用单阶段估值模型时，需要仔细考虑假设和预测的合理性，并结合其他估值方法和模型进行综合分析，以得出更准确的估值结论。

企业的14种估值方法企业的估值方法有很多种，针对不同的行业和情况选择不同的估值方法。

下面是目前常见的14种企业估值方法：2. 基本面分析法（Fundamental Analysis Method）：通过对企业的财务情况、业绩及发展前景进行深入分析，结合行业发展趋势等因素，进行估值，可采用尺度因素、价值因素、效益因素等。

4. 成本法（Cost Approach）：通过计算企业所需的投资成本来确定企业的价值。

常用的成本法有修正净资产法、再生产成本法等。

5. 盈利模型法（Profit Model approach）：通过对企业的盈利模型进行分析和计算，确定企业的价值。

常用的盈利模型法有净资产法、自由现金流模型法等。

6. 优化模型（Optimization Models）：采用最优化理论和方法，确定企业估值的最优解。

常用的优化模型有线性规划模型、整数规划模型、非线性规划模型等。

8. 专家评估法（Expert Valuation Method）：根据专家对估值对象进行评估，结合专家经验和判断，确定估值。

9. 资本资产定价模型法（Capital Asset Pricing Model Method）：通过资本的成本计算出资本成本率，然后将资本成本率用于计算企业的估值。

10. 多元回归法（Multiple Regression Method）：通过回归分析，结合多个影响因素，确定企业的估值。

11. 动态估值法（Dynamic Valuation Method）：根据企业所处的市场环境和市场预期，动态计算企业的估值。

12. 增长模型法（Growth Model Method）：根据企业持续增长的前提下，根据增长率和资本回报率计算企业的估值。

13. 实物模型法（Tangible Asset Model Method）：指通过计算企业的实物资产的价值来确定企业的估值。

14. 杂凑法（Balance Sheet Method）：通过对企业资产负债表的计算和分析，确定企业的估值。

可供出售金融资产的估值方法在金融领域，估值是对资产或证券的价值进行评估的过程。

对于可供出售的金融资产，其估值方法可能会因资产的性质、市场条件和会计准则的要求而有所不同。

以下是一些常见的可供出售金融资产的估值方法：市场价格法（Market Price Method）：上市证券：对于上市的金融资产，可以使用其市场价格来进行估值。

这通常是最直接和透明的方法。

非上市证券：对于非上市的金融资产，可以通过估算类似资产的市场价格，或者参考行业和市场交易情况来确定其估值。

估值模型法（Valuation Model Method）：使用各种估值模型，如贴现现金流量模型（DCF）、相对估值模型等。

这种方法适用于那些不容易通过市场价格确定价值的金融资产。

对于固定收益证券，可以使用贴现现金流量模型计算其现值，考虑到未来现金流入的贴现效应。

市场比较法（Market Comparables Method）：比较可供出售金融资产与类似市场上已经交易的资产，确定估值。

这通常在缺乏直接市场价格的情况下使用。

对于股权投资，可以参考同一行业或类似公司的市盈率、市净率等指标。

流动性折扣法（Liquidity Discount Method）：考虑金融资产的流动性，对其进行折扣。

不同类型的资产具有不同的流动性，较难变现的资产可能会受到一定的折扣。

流动性折扣通常在市场交易相对有限或交易成本较高的情况下应用。

独立专业估值（Independent Professional Valuation）：委托独立的专业估值机构进行估值。

这通常用于需要高度专业知识或对估值结果需要独立验证的情况。

最优化方法（Optimization Methods）：使用数学优化方法，通过考虑不同的变量和约束，寻找资产的最优估值。

这可能涉及到对多个因素进行权衡和优化。

在进行估值时，要考虑到相关的会计准则，如国际财务报告准则（IFRS）或美国通用会计准则（GAAP），以确保估值符合相关的会计标准和法规。

雪球估值模型雪球估值模型（Snowball Valuation Model），顾名思义，是一种估值模型。

该模型由雪球网创始人陆奇等人提出，目的在于帮助投资者更好地了解一家公司的价值，从而更好地进行投资决策。

雪球估值模型主要基于公司的财务数据，通过对财务指标的分析和计算，得出一个相对准确的估值结果。

基本框架雪球估值模型的基本框架包括三个关键要素：估值指标、行业平均数和公司财务数据。

估值指标：估值指标是确定公司价值的核心指标。

雪球估值模型主要采用市盈率（P/E）、市净率（P/B）和市销率（P/S）三个指标。

这三个指标能够比较准确地反映一家公司的价值水平，具有较高的可靠性。

行业平均数：雪球估值模型是一种相对估值模型，这就意味着它需要对公司进行行业比较。

在雪球估值模型中，需要采用行业平均数来进行比较，以便确定公司的估值是否偏高或偏低。

行业平均数是由该行业内所有公司的财务指标平均值得出的。

公司财务数据：在雪球估值模型中，需要对公司的财务数据进行分析和计算。

通过采用财务数据，来计算出估值指标的数值，从而可以把公司的价值与行业平均数进行比较。

应用场景雪球估值模型基于公司的财务数据进行分析和计算，所以主要应用于财务分析领域。

具体来说，它可以应用于以下场景：投资决策：雪球估值模型可以帮助投资者更好地了解一家公司的价值，并与行业平均数进行比较。

这对于投资者做出投资决策非常有帮助。

产业分析：雪球估值模型通过比较行业平均数和公司的财务数据，可以提供一个相对准确的行业内公司价值排名。

这对于产业分析非常重要。

公司估值：雪球估值模型可以通过计算出的估值指标，来确定一家公司的大致价值范围。

这在公司估值时非常有帮助。

总结雪球估值模型是一种相对估值模型，它基于公司的财务数据进行分析和计算，可以较为准确地反映公司的价值水平。

与其他估值模型相比，雪球估值模型具有简单易用、可靠性高等优点。

由于其广泛应用于财务分析领域，所以被越来越多的投资者和产业分析师所采用。

dividend valuation model 推导
Dividend Valuation Model (DVM) 是一种基于股息的公司估值模型，它是由著名的估值
理论家John Burr Williams于1938年提出的。

它是一种更新权息折算模型，通过把未来
的现金流折算成当前现金流获得标的公司的价值，同时考虑到投资者获得估值时的回报期望。

DVM 理论认为，价值就是目前及未来支付的股息之和，由于未来的股息是未来的现金流，
因此价值就是期望未来的现金流累积的价值，称作将权息折算为当前价值。

DVM的实质是
有限时间内序列现金流的折现现值。

根据 DVM 理论，投资者所看到的估值是股息现值的
折现值，而不是股息的现值数额。

根据DVM模型，股息现值的估算公式为：V=DP1/(r-g)，其中V表示标的公司的价值，D表示即期股息，P1表示未来支付的股息，r表示投资者的报酬率，g表示预期股息增长率。

V=DP1/(r-g)表明，公司价值应该等于将未来的股息折现后的价值。

DVM模型做出了一个重要的假设，即未来的现金流将保持恒定水平，这取决于投资者认为
当前的股息估值水平会持续多久。

假设未来的股息水平和当前的股息水平不会增长或减少，那么DVM模型可以用作估值工具。

但是，如果未来的股息会发生变化，该模型就不再有效，因为必须考虑未来的股息增长率与股息减少率。

因此，Dividend Valuation Model 可以用来估算一家公司的价值，它是基于未来的股息，以及未来的现金流的当前价值。

但是，它需要假定未来的股息水平和当前的股息水平保持
一致，如果有变化，就不再有效。