寿险经验生命表doc-关于颁布《中国人寿保险业经验生命表资料

年龄死亡率生存人数死亡人数平均余命(x)q xl xd xL xT xe x o00.0008671000000.00867.00999566.5076420141.8776.4210.000615999133.00614.47998825.7775420575.3775.4920.000445998518.53444.34998296.3674421749.6074.5330.000339998074.19338.35997905.027*******.2473.5740.00028997735.85279.37997596.1672425548.2272.5950.000251997456.48250.36997331.3071427952.0671.6160.000237997206.12236.34997087.9570430620.7670.6370.000233996969.78232.29996853.6369433532.8169.6480.000238996737.49237.22996618.8768436679.1868.6690.00025996500.26249.13996375.7067440060.3067.68100.000269996251.14267.99996117.1466443684.6066.69110.000293995983.15291.82995837.2365447567.4665.71120.000319995691.32317.63995532.5164451730.2364.73130.000347995373.70345.39995201.0063456197.7263.75140.000375995028.30373.14994841.7362460996.7262.77150.000402994655.17399.85994455.2461466154.9861.80160.000427994255.32424.55994043.0460471699.7460.82170.000449993830.77446.23993607.6559477656.7059.85180.000469993384.54465.90993151.5958484049.0558.87190.000489992918.64485.54992675.8757490897.4657.90200.000508992433.10504.16992181.0356498221.5956.93210.000527991928.95522.75991667.5755506040.5655.96220.000547991406.20542.30991135.0554514372.9854.99230.000568990863.90562.81990582.5053523237.9354.02240.000591990301.09585.27990008.4652532655.4453.05250.000615989715.82608.68989411.4951542646.9852.08260.000644989107.15636.99988788.6650553235.4951.11270.000675988470.16667.22988136.5549564446.8450.14280.000711987802.95702.33987451.7848576310.2849.18290.000751987100.62741.31986729.9647588858.5048.21300.000797986359.31786.13985966.2446602128.5447.25310.000847985573.18834.78985155.7945616162.3046.28320.000903984738.40889.22984293.7944631006.5145.322010-2013非养老类业务一表男CL1生存人年数中国人身保险业经验生命表330.000966983849.18950.40983373.9843646712.7244.36 340.001035982898.781017.30982390.1342663338.7443.41 350.001111981881.481090.87981336.0441680948.6242.45 360.001196980790.611173.03980204.1040699612.5741.50 370.00129979617.581263.71978985.7339719408.4840.55 380.001395978353.881364.80977671.4738740422.7539.60 390.001515976989.071480.14976249.0037762751.2738.65 400.001651975508.931610.57974703.6536786502.2737.71 410.001804973898.371756.91973019.9135811798.6136.77 420.001978972141.461922.90971180.0134838778.7035.84 430.002173970218.562108.28969164.4233867598.6934.91 440.002393968110.282316.69966951.9332898434.2733.98 450.002639965793.592548.73964519.2231931482.3433.06 460.002913963244.862805.93961841.8930966963.1232.15 470.003213960438.933085.89958895.9830005121.2331.24 480.003538957353.043387.12955659.4829046225.2430.34 490.003884953965.923705.20952113.3228090565.7729.45 500.004249950260.724037.66948241.8927138452.4528.56 510.004633946223.064383.85944031.1326190210.5627.68 520.005032941839.214739.33939469.5425246179.4226.81 530.005445937099.875102.51934548.6224306709.8825.94 540.005869931997.365469.89929262.4223372161.2625.08 550.006302926527.475838.98923607.9822442898.8524.22 560.006747920688.506211.89917582.5521519290.8623.37 570.007227914476.616608.92911172.1520601708.3122.53 580.00777907867.697054.13904340.6219690536.1621.69 590.008403900813.567569.54897028.7918786195.5420.85 600.009161893244.028183.01889152.5217889166.7520.03 610.010*********.018908.14880606.9417000014.2319.21 620.011129876152.879750.71871277.5216119407.2918.40 630.01236866402.1710708.73861047.8015248129.7717.60 640.013771855693.4411783.75849801.5614387081.9716.81 650.015379843909.6812978.49837420.4413537280.4116.04 660.017212830931.1914301.99823780.2012699859.9715.28 670.019304816629.2115764.21808747.1011876079.7714.54 680.021*********.0017371.56792179.2211067332.6713.82 690.024*********.4319125.86773930.5110275153.4513.11 700.027*********.5821016.29753859.439501222.9512.43 710.030965743351.2923017.87731842.358747363.5111.77 720.034832720333.4225090.65707788.098015521.1611.13 730.0391********.7627187.47681649.037307733.0710.51 740.0437********.3029258.15653426.226626084.049.92750.048921638797.1531250.60623171.855972657.829.35 760.054506607546.5533114.93590989.085349485.978.81 770.060586574431.6234802.51557030.364758496.898.28 780.067202539629.1036264.16521497.034201466.537.79 790.0744503364.9537450.35484639.773679969.507.31 800.08222465914.6038307.50446760.853195329.73 6.86 810.0907427607.1038783.96408215.122748568.88 6.43 820.0998********.1338830.99369407.642340353.77 6.02 830.109754349992.1538413.04330785.631970946.12 5.63 840.120388311579.1137510.39292823.921640160.50 5.26 850.131817274068.7236126.92256005.261347336.58 4.92 860.144105237941.8134288.60220797.501091331.32 4.59 870.157334203653.2032041.57187632.42870533.82 4.27 880.171609171611.6329450.10156886.58682901.40 3.98 890.187046142161.5326590.75128866.16526014.82 3.70 900.203765115570.7823549.28103796.14397148.66 3.44 910.22187392021.5020417.0981812.96293352.52 3.19 920.24145171604.4217288.9662959.94211539.56 2.95 930.26253954315.4614259.9347185.50148579.63 2.74 940.28512940055.5311420.9934345.04101394.13 2.53 950.3091628634.548852.6524208.2167049.10 2.34 960.33452919781.886617.6116473.0842840.88 2.17 970.36110113164.274753.6310787.4526367.81 2.00 980.3887278410.643269.446775.9215580.35 1.85 990.4172575141.202145.204068.608804.43 1.71 1000.4465442996.001337.842327.074735.84 1.58 1010.4764471658.15790.021263.142408.76 1.45 1020.50683868.13439.99648.131145.62 1.32 1030.537558428.14230.15313.06497.49 1.16 1040.568497197.99112.56141.71184.430.93 105185.4385.4342.7242.720.50年龄死亡率生存人数死亡人数平均余命(x)q xl xd xL xT xe x o00.000621000000.00620.00999690.0081707122.9181.7110.000456999380.00455.72999152.1480707432.9180.7620.000337998924.28336.64998755.9679708280.7779.7930.000256998587.65255.64998459.8378709524.8178.8240.000203998332.01202.66998230.6877711064.9877.8450.00017998129.35169.68998044.5076712834.3176.8660.000149997959.66148.70997885.3275714789.8075.8770.000137997810.97136.70997742.6274716904.4974.8880.000133997674.27132.69997607.9273719161.8773.8990.000136997541.58135.67997473.7472721553.9572.90100.000145997405.91144.62997333.6071724080.2071.91110.000157997261.29156.57997183.0070726746.6070.92120.000172997104.72171.50997018.9769729563.6069.93130.000189996933.22188.42996839.0068732544.6468.94140.000206996744.79205.33996642.1367735705.6367.96150.000221996539.47220.24996429.3566739063.5066.97160.000234996319.23233.14996202.6665742634.1565.99170.000245996086.09244.04995964.0764746431.4965.00180.000255995842.05253.94995715.0863750467.4264.02190.000262995588.11260.84995457.6962754752.3463.03200.000269995327.27267.74995193.3961759294.6562.05210.000274995059.52272.65994923.2060764101.2661.07220.000279994786.88277.55994648.1059769178.0660.08230.000284994509.33282.44994368.1158774529.9559.10240.000289994226.89287.33994083.2357780161.8458.12250.000294993939.56292.22993793.4556786078.6257.13260.0003993647.34298.09993498.2955792285.1756.15270.000307993349.25304.96993196.7754798786.8755.17280.000316993044.29313.80992887.3953805590.1154.18290.000327992730.49324.62992568.1852812702.7253.20300.00034992405.86337.42992237.1551820134.5452.22310.000356992068.45353.18991891.8650827897.3951.23320.000374991715.27370.90991529.8249836005.5350.25330.000397991344.37393.56991147.5948844475.7149.27340.000423990950.80419.17990741.2247853328.1248.29350.000454990531.63449.70990306.7846862586.9147.31360.000489990081.93484.15989839.8645872280.1346.33生存人年数非养老类业务一表女CL2370.00053989597.78524.49989335.5444882440.2745.35 380.000577989073.29570.70988787.9543893104.7344.38 390.000631988502.60623.75988190.7342904316.7943.40 400.000692987878.85683.61987537.0541916126.0642.43 410.000762987195.24752.24986819.1240928589.0141.46 420.000841986443.00829.60986028.2039941769.8940.49 430.000929985613.40915.63985155.5838955741.6939.52 440.001028984697.771012.27984191.6337970586.1138.56 450.001137983685.501118.45983126.2736986394.4837.60 460.001259982567.051237.05981948.5236003268.2136.64 470.001392981329.991366.01980646.9935021319.6935.69 480.001537979963.981506.20979210.8834040672.7034.74 490.001692978457.781655.55977630.0033061461.8233.79 500.001859976802.231815.88975894.2932083831.8232.85 510.002037974986.351986.05973993.3331107937.5331.91 520.002226973000.302165.90971917.3530133944.2030.97 530.002424970834.412353.30969657.7529162026.8530.04 540.002634968481.102550.98967205.6128192369.1029.11 550.002853965930.122755.80964552.2227225163.4828.19 560.003085963174.332971.39961688.6326260611.2627.26 570.003342960202.933209.00958598.4325298922.6326.35 580.003638956993.933481.54955253.1624340324.1925.43 590.00399953512.393804.51951610.1323385071.0324.53 600.004414949707.884192.01947611.8722433460.9023.62 610.004923945515.874654.77943188.4821485849.0322.72 620.005529940861.095202.02938260.0820542660.5521.83 630.006244935659.075842.26932737.9419604400.4720.95 640.007078929816.816581.24926526.1918671662.5320.08 650.008045923235.577427.43919521.8617745136.3419.22 660.009165915808.148393.38911611.4516825614.4818.37 670.010********.769491.56902668.9815914003.0317.54 680.011955897923.2010734.67892555.8615011334.0516.72 690.013674887188.5312131.42881122.8214118778.1915.91 700.015643875057.1113688.52868212.8513237655.3615.13 710.017887861368.5915407.30853664.9412369442.5114.36 720.020*********.2917284.68837318.9511515777.5713.61 730.023*********.6119310.65819021.2910678458.6112.89 740.026528809365.9621470.86798630.539859437.3212.18 750.030137787895.1023744.79776022.709060806.7911.50 760.034165764150.3126107.20751096.718284784.0910.84 770.038653738043.1128527.58723779.327533687.3810.21 780.0436********.5330968.93694031.066809908.069.60790.049205678546.6033387.89661852.666115876.999.01 800.0553********.7135732.12627292.655454024.348.45 810.062254609426.6037939.24590456.984826731.687.92 820.06988571487.3539935.54551519.594236274.717.41 830.07832531551.8241631.14510736.253684755.12 6.93 840.0876********.6842922.44468459.463174018.87 6.48 850.0977********.2443695.87425150.312705559.41 6.05 860.108704403302.3743840.58381382.082280409.11 5.65 870.120371359461.7943268.78337827.401899027.02 5.28 880.132638316193.0241939.21295223.411561199.62 4.94 890.145395274253.8139875.13254316.241265976.21 4.62 900.158572234378.6737165.90215795.731011659.97 4.32 910.172172197212.7833954.52180235.52795864.24 4.04 920.186294163258.2630414.03148051.24615628.72 3.77 930.201129132844.2326718.83119484.81467577.48 3.52 940.21694106125.4023022.8494613.98348092.66 3.28 950.23402683102.5619448.1673378.48253478.69 3.05 960.25267363654.4016083.7555612.52180100.21 2.83 970.27311247570.6512992.1241074.59124487.69 2.62 980.29547834578.5310217.2029469.9483413.09 2.41 990.31979424361.347790.6120466.0353943.16 2.21 1000.34597516570.735733.0613704.2033477.13 2.02 1010.37385610837.674051.738811.8119772.93 1.82 1020.4032216785.942736.235417.8310961.12 1.62 1030.4338334049.711756.903171.265543.29 1.37 1040.4654472292.811067.181759.222372.03 1.03 10511225.631225.63612.81612.810.50年龄死亡率生存人数死亡人数平均余命(x)q xl xd xL xT xe x o00.000621000000.00620.00999690.0080351120.9380.3510.000465999380.00464.71999147.6479351430.9379.4020.000353998915.29352.62998738.9878352283.2978.4430.000278998562.67277.60998423.8777353544.3177.4640.000229998285.07228.61998170.7776355120.4476.4950.0002998056.46199.61997956.6675356949.6775.5060.000182997856.85181.61997766.0574358993.0174.5270.000172997675.24171.60997589.4473361226.9773.5380.000171997503.64170.57997418.3672363637.5372.5490.000177997333.07176.53997244.8171366219.1771.56100.000187997156.54186.47997063.3170368974.3670.57110.000202996970.07201.39996869.3869371911.0669.58120.00022996768.68219.29996659.0468375041.6868.60130.00024996549.40239.17996429.8167378382.6467.61140.000261996310.22260.04996180.2166381952.8366.63150.00028996050.19278.89995910.7465385772.6265.65160.000298995771.29296.74995622.9264389861.8864.66170.000315995474.55313.57995317.7763394238.9663.68180.000331995160.98329.40994996.2862398921.2062.70190.000346994831.58344.21994659.4761403924.9261.72200.000361994487.37359.01994307.8660409265.4460.74210.000376994128.36373.79993941.4659414957.5859.77220.000392993754.57389.55993559.7958421016.1258.79230.000409993365.01406.29993161.8757427456.3357.81240.000428992958.73424.99992746.2456434294.4556.83250.000448992533.74444.66992311.4155441548.2255.86260.000471992089.09467.27991855.4554449236.8054.88270.000497991621.81492.84991375.3953457381.3553.91280.000526991128.98521.33990868.3152466005.9652.94290.000558990607.64552.76990331.2651475137.6551.96300.000595990054.88589.08989760.3450484806.3950.99310.000635989465.80628.31989151.6549495046.0450.02320.000681988837.49673.40988500.7948505894.4049.05330.000732988164.09723.34987802.4247517393.6148.09340.000788987440.76778.10987051.7046529591.1847.12350.00085986662.65838.66986243.3245542539.4846.16360.000919985823.99905.97985371.0044556296.1645.20生存人年数非养老类业务二表男CL3370.000995984918.02979.99984428.024*******.1544.24 380.001078983938.021060.69983407.6842586497.1343.28 390.00117982877.341149.97982302.3641603089.4542.33 400.00127981727.371246.79981103.9840620787.1041.38 410.00138980480.581353.06979804.0539639683.1240.43 420.0015979127.521468.69978393.1738659879.0839.48 430.001631977658.821594.56976861.5437681485.9138.54 440.001774976064.261731.54975198.4936704624.3637.60 450.001929974332.721879.49973392.9835729425.8736.67 460.002096972453.242038.26971434.1134756032.8935.74 470.002277970414.972209.63969310.1633784598.7834.81 480.002472968205.342393.40967008.6432815288.6333.89 490.002682965811.942590.31964516.7831848279.9932.98 500.002908963221.632801.05961821.1030883763.2132.06 510.00315960420.583025.32958907.9229921942.1031.16 520.003409957395.263263.76955763.3728963034.1930.25 530.003686954131.493516.93952373.0328007270.8129.35 540.003982950614.573785.35948721.8927054897.7828.46 550.004297946829.224068.53944794.9626106175.8927.57 560.004636942760.694370.64940575.3725161380.9326.69 570.004999938390.054691.01936044.5524220805.5625.81 580.005389933699.045031.70931183.1923284761.0124.94 590.005807928667.345392.77925970.9522353577.8224.07 600.006258923274.575777.85920385.6421427606.8623.21 610.006742917496.726185.76914403.8320507221.2222.35 620.007261911310.956617.03908002.4419592817.3921.50 630.007815904693.927070.18901158.8318684814.9520.65 640.008405897623.747544.53893851.4817783656.1219.81 650.009039890079.218045.43886056.5016889804.6418.98 660.009738882033.798589.25877739.1616003748.1418.14 670.010*********.549204.36868842.3615126008.9817.32 680.011496864240.189935.31859272.5314257166.6116.50 690.012686854304.8810837.71848886.021*******.0815.68 700.014192843467.1711970.49837481.9212549008.0614.88 710.016106831496.6813392.09824800.6411711526.1414.08 720.018517818104.6015148.84810530.1710886725.5013.31 730.021********.7517271.58794319.9610076195.3212.55 740.025*********.1719760.74775803.809281875.3611.81 750.029********.4322587.08754629.898506071.5611.11 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修订寿险经验生命表工作中的险种分类及重大疾病发生率估计杨步青、梁子君、任启龙、袁智军上海财经大学保险精算研究中心生命表研究小组在2003年9月26－28日召开的第四届中国精算年会上，中国保监会正式披露了即将修订中国寿险经验生命表的项目，计划用三年时间、即于2006年完成对中国寿险精算生命表的修订。

这是一项较为庞大和繁重的工作，包含一系列的具体问题。

本文主要探讨了其中的数据分类和重大疾病发生率估计两个问题，希望对中国保监会的这项工作能有所帮助。

关键词：经验生命表、重大疾病发生率、数据分类第一部分：进展回顾一、中国寿险经验生命表CL（1990－1993）的编制过程回顾我国于1981年恢复国内的保险业务，包括寿险业务。

寿险业务的费率制定需要生命表作为依据，而当时既没有经验数据又没有精算技术，费率厘订只好借用日本的经验生命表。

寿险业经过十多年的快速发展后，业务数据有了一定的积累，为制定自己的生命表提供了一定的数据基础。

而且编制生命表的精算技术也在八十年代末引入到我国，并得到了快速发展。

1992年下半年，中国人民保险公司人身险部受中国人民银行的委托，启动了设计编制中国寿险经验生命表方案，并从1994年正式开始实施该项目。

中国寿险经验生命表的编制经历了资料收集和整理、调查表的填报与数据录入、经验资料的计算机处理、经验资料的分析、基本死亡率的计算和对死亡率的补整、修匀等过程。

数据主要来自当时的中国人民保险公司，通过整群抽样获得，收集了人保1985年1月1日到1993年12月31日之间承保的长期人身保险业务的资料，死亡率调查的观察期为1990年1月1日至1993年12月31日。

对所收集的数据，利用计算机对数据进行分析、筛选最后确定编制生命表的基础数据库。

完成基础数据库后，进而确定暴露数的计算方法，并根据暴露数来计算不同年龄的死亡率。

确定粗死亡率后还要对生命表进行补整、修匀。

第一次是方差补整，主要是考虑估计的随机波动，假设死亡率是正态随机变量，则其95%的置信估计区间为均值加或减两倍均方差形成的区间。

中国保险监督管理委员会关于继续使用《中国人寿保险业经验生命表(1990－1993)》的通知【法规类别】人身保险【发文字号】保监发[1999]238号【失效依据】中国保险监督管理委员会关于公布规章和规范性文件清理结果的通知【发布部门】中国保险监督管理委员会【发布日期】1999.12.13【实施日期】1999.12.13【时效性】失效【效力级别】部门规范性文件中国保险监督管理委员会关于继续使用《中国人寿保险业经验生命表（１９９０－１９９３）》的通知（保监发〔１９９９〕２３８号１９９９年１２月１３日）中国人寿保险公司、中国太平洋保险公司、中国平安保险股份有限公司、新华人寿保险股份有限公司、泰康人寿保险股份有限公司、新疆兵团保险公司、美国友邦保险有限公司广州分公司、中宏人寿保险有限公司、太平洋安泰人寿保险有限公司、安联大众人寿保险有限公司、金盛人寿保险有限公司、美国友邦保险有限公司上海分公司、美国友邦保险有限公司深圳分公司：现将继续使用《中国人寿保险业经验生命表（１９９０－１９９３）》的有关事项通知如下：一、中国第一张寿险业生命表命名为《中国人寿保险业经验生命表（１９９０－１９９３）》，英文名称为：《ＣｈｉｎａＬｉｆｅＩｎｓｕｒａｎｃｅＭｏｒｔａｌｉｔｙＴａｂｌｅ（１９９０－１９９３）》，简称：《ＣＬ（１９９０－１９９３）》。

其中非养老金类业务用表三张，养老金类业务用表三张（见附表），分别是：１．非养老金业务用男表，简称《ＣＬ１（１９９０－１９９３）》２．非养老金业务用女表，简称《ＣＬ２（１９９０－１９９３）》３．非养老金业务用男女表，简称《ＣＬ３（１９９０－１９９３）》４．养老金业务用男表，简称《ＣＬ４（１９９０－１９９３）》５．养老金业务用女表，简称《ＣＬ５（１９９０－１９９３）》６．养老金业务用男女表，简称《ＣＬ６（１９９０－１９９３）》二、非养老金业务表适用于不含养老金给付责任的普通寿险，养老金业务用表适用于养老金保险，包含养老金和普通寿险给付责任的综合保险，养老金保险责任使用养老金业务用表，其他保险责任使用非养老金业务用表。

寿险行业经验生命表征求意见稿尊敬的各位行业专家、从业人员和相关利益相关方：大家好！我是某寿险公司的市场策划部门负责人。

我们的公司一直致力于为广大客户提供优质的寿险产品和服务。

为了更好地适应市场需求和提高客户体验，我们计划制定一套寿险行业经验生命表。

现将这套生命表的初稿提交给大家，请各位就此稿件提出宝贵意见和建议，帮助我们改进和完善。

以下是我对寿险行业经验生命表的一些初步思考：一、背景与目的寿险行业经验生命表是对寿险业务中被保险人寿命的统计数据进行分析和预测的重要工具。

其背后依托的是历史寿险业务数据和统计学原理。

制定寿险行业经验生命表的目的是为了提供更准确、科学的衡量人群寿命风险的依据，从而指导保险公司在产品设计、定价和风险控制等方面做出决策。

二、编制原则1.数据来源可靠性原则：生命表的编制应基于大量可靠的历史寿险业务数据，确保数据的代表性和真实性。

2.统计学原理合理性原则：生命表的编制应遵循统计学的基本原理，合理地运用相应的统计模型和方法。

3.透明度原则：生命表编制过程应完全透明，包括数据源、处理方法和模型选择等方面，以便于相关利益相关方的监督和验证。

三、数据采集与处理1.数据采集：我们将通过与其他寿险公司合作，共享历史寿险业务数据，并进行合法合规的数据整理与加工工作。

2.数据分析：对采集到的数据进行详细的统计分析，包括寿命分布、死亡原因分布、寿命预测等等。

3.模型选择与验证：在数据分析的基础上，选择合适的统计模型进行生命表的构建，并对模型进行验证，确保其拟合度和预测能力。

四、生命表的应用1.产品定价：寿险行业经验生命表可以作为保险公司制定寿险产品定价策略的重要参考依据。

2.风险评估与管理：基于生命表，保险公司可以对人群寿命风险进行更准确的评估和管理，从而降低风险带来的损失。

3.保险销售：生命表中的寿命数据可以作为保险销售人员与客户进行风险沟通和信息传递的重要工具。

五、其他问题1.隐私保护：在数据采集和处理过程中，我们将严格遵守相关法律法规，保护客户个人信息的隐私和安全。