汽车经销商供应链金融保兑仓模式的订货决策分析
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谨以此论文献给所有关心我的人 ------------------张枭伦
汽车经销商供应链金融保兑仓模式的订货决策分析 摘 要 随着经济全球化及社会分工的不断细化，供应链上企业之间的协调发展逐渐成为提高整条供应链竞争力的目标。供应链核心企业为降低运营成本，会挤占上下游中小企业的资金，而中小企业因缺乏作为质押物来获得银行贷款的不动产，存在资金流运转困难，从而影响到整个供应链的效率。在中小企业融资困难的背景下，银行可以提供盘活资金的金融服务，整合物流与资金流，形成供应链金融。而汽车行业由于自身的供应链结构简明，且汽车经销商对资金的依赖性较大，因此成为供应链金融重点关注的领域。伴随着中国汽车市场逐步放缓的增速，销售不畅增大了经销商的库存压力，因此可以通过研究经销商在供应链金融业务下的订货决策，从而降低库存，增加企业利益。 供应链金融保兑仓模式是一个包含多个复杂因素变量的系统，本文应用系统动力学研究了保兑仓模式下订货决策对现金流的影响。在相关理论基础上，以福田汽车经销商为研究对象，结合经销商保兑仓模式具体流程，定性分析出影响该模式的主要因素，以此因素作为变量构建系统动力学模型，并对模型的适用性进行检验。运用该模型对经销商集中决策和分散决策两种发展战略下不同订货策略进行系统分析。通过对比两种决策下经销商库存量、现金存量以及供应链收益的差异，得出经销商库存量对现金存量的影响，论证了经销商选择不同发展战略的可能性；通过对不同指标的改变，得出质押率的上升会导致经销商现金存量的下降，另外，在途调节时间的变动能够影响经销商发展决策的制定，当在途库存调节时间小于0.6month时，经销商只能选择集中决策的发展战略，当在途库存调节时间大于0.6month时，经销商可以选择集中和分散两种决策的发展战略。 本文的创新之处在于通过系统动力学模型对供应链金融保兑仓融资模式的订货决策进行系统分析。文中的系统动力学模型是针对福田汽车经销商构建的，且在模型构建中考虑到保兑仓业务关键性指标的设定，如赎货保证金、供应链收益等。通过将构建出的系统动力学系统运用到具体企业中，对经销商的发展战略决策、在不同的战略决策下的不同订货决策，以及决策何时开展进行了实证分析。 关键词：保兑仓 系统动力学 订货决策 集中决策 分散决策
A Research of Ordering Decision of Car Distributor in Supply Chain Finance Advanced Payment Model Abstract With the economic globalization and the constant refinement of the social division of labor, the coordinated development between enterprises in the supply chain is becoming the goal of improving the competitiveness of the entire supply chain. In order to reduce operating costs，the core enterprises of the supply chain will stand up the SMEs’ funds which is in up and down stream of the supply chain. While due to the lack of the real estate which can be regard as the pledge to obtain bank loans, there are operational difficulties of capital flow in SMEs, thus influence the efficiency of the entire supply chain. In the context of the financing difficulties in SMEs, the bank can revitalize the capital; integrate logistics and cash flow, all of this form supply chain finance. Due to a more concise of supply chain and car dealers have a large dependent on funding, the automotive industry becomes the focus of supply chain finance field. Supply chain finance business. Accompanied by a slowing down in the growth rate of China's auto market, the pressure on the stock of the dealer is increasing, so through the research on ordering decisions of the dealer in the supply chain finance, business interests will increase. Supply chain financial advanced payment model is a system contained many complex factors. Using system dynamics model, this paper analyses the influence of ordering decisions under advanced payment model on cash flow. Based on related theory and choose Foton Automobile Dealers as the object, combined with specific processes of dealer’s advanced payment model, giving a qualitative analysis of the main factors that affect the mode, and considering these factors as a variable to build the system dynamics model .At last make a test of the applicability of this model. Based on this model, making a systemic analysis of the ordering decision under two development strategy includes centralized strategy and decentralized strategy. By comparing the differences in dealer’s inventory, cash stock and supply chain revenue under two strategies, this paper finds that dealer inventory has a influence on cash
stock and demonstrates the possibility of the dealer to choose different development strategies; through altering different indicators, this paper analyses that the rise of the pledge rate will lead to a decline in the cash stock of the dealer, in addition , changes in the transit inventory regulation time can influence the development strategy of the dealer: when the transit inventory regulation time is less than 0.6month, dealers can only choose the centralized decision-making strategy , when greater than 0.6month, the dealer can choose centralized and decentralized decision-making strategy. The innovation is that using system dynamics model; this paper makes a systematic analysis of ordering decisions in supply chain financial advanced payment model. The system dynamics model in this paper is built for Foton dealer and during the building of this model, some critical indicators of advanced payment have been taken into account, such as foreclosure cargo margin, supply chain gains and so on. Through the building system dynamics system applied to a specific enterprise, this paper make a empirical analysis of development of a strategic decision of the dealer、different ordering decisions under different strategic decision, as well as when carried out these decisions. Key words：Advanced Payment Model System Dynamics Ordering Decision Centralized Decision Decentralized Decision
目 录 1 绪论 .................................................. 1 1.1 选题背景及意义 ................................................ 1 1.1.1 研究背景.................................................. 1 1.1.2 研究意义.................................................. 2 1.2文献综述 ...................................................... 2 1.2.1供应链金融的发展研究 ...................................... 2 1.2.2供应链决策的研究 .......................................... 3 1.2.3文献综述述评 .............................................. 4 1.3 主要内容 ...................................................... 5 1.3.1 内容与方法................................................ 5 1.3.2 技术路线.................................................. 6 1.3.3 主要创新点................................................ 6 2 研究理论基础 .......................................... 8 2.1 供应链金融理论 ................................................ 8 2.1.1 供应链金融的概念.......................................... 8 2.1.2 供应链金融行业现状........................................ 8 2.1.3 汽车行业供应链金融理论................................... 10 2.1.4 供应链金融保兑仓模式..................................... 11 2.2 系统动力学的相关理论 ......................................... 13 2.2.1 系统动力学的含义......................................... 13 2.2.2 系统动力学的基本理论..................................... 14 2.2.3 系统动力学仿真的一般步骤................................. 15 2.3 本章小结 ..................................................... 16 3 福田经销商保兑仓订货决策的系统动力学分析 .............. 17 3.1 福田经销商企业简介 ........................................... 17 3.2 福田经销商保兑仓融资模式介绍 ................................. 18 3.3 企业保兑仓融资模式影响因素分析 ............................... 19 3.3.1 外部环境因素............................................. 19 3.3.2 供应链绩效因素........................................... 20 3.3.3 企业自身因素............................................. 20 3.3.4 金融机构因素............................................. 21 3.4 企业订货决策系统动力学的模型建立 ............................. 21 3.4.1 研究目的................................................. 21
