CHINA-ASEAN FIVE-CONNECTIVIT INDEX

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OPINION58ASEAN is an important link along the “21st

Century Maritime Silk Road” as well as a key cooperation partner in China’s Belt and Road Initiative. For more than three years since the Belt and Road was first proposed, ASEAN countries have enthusiastically participated in construction, helping the project achieve impressive progress.To qualify progress of connectivity along the Belt and Road, the “Five-Connectivity Index Subject Group” was established at Peking University to spearhead calculation of the Five-Connectivity Index on the Belt and Road. Based on objective data of basic status and development trends of 64 involved countries, the index made specific and in-depth assessment of the relations of these countries with China in terms of policy coordination, facilities connectivity, unimpeded trade, financial integration and people-to-people bonds. Table 1 presents the overall development of Five-Connectivity between China and 10 ASEAN countries from 2016 to 2017.In general, Five-Connectivity Index between China and 10 ASEAN countries averaged 62.07 in 2016, higher than that of other countries along the route (52.4). This indicates that the overall level of connectivity between China and ASEAN countries is relatively high. In the national category, the analysis determined that ASEAN countries accounted for 5 of 11 countries with smooth link types in terms of “five connectivity” and none was of the weak link type.

By Chen Yiyuan, Zhai KunChina-ASEAN Five-Connectivity Index

0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 79.1977.2468.5762.9061.5761.1957.2454.1951.0947.48

SingaporeMalaysiaThailandIndonesiaVietnamCambodiathe PhilippinesLaosBruneiMyanmar

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2369121419233645

+1-1——-2—-2+5-1-3

SmoothGradeRankingNations2017 RankingChange●Facilities Connectivity●Unimpeded Trade●Financial Integration●People-to- People BondsGoodPotential+++++13.6715.29 13.4610.94 13.4610.9410.9614.65 9.67 9.9414.8315.13 10.31 10.5010.3110.50 7.96 7.6711.91 10.46 18.5315.79 13.0912.95 13.0912.95 12.16 9.57 10.90 9.58 17.80 16.0715.04 15.14 15.04 15.1413.259.02 10.72 6.81 14.36 14.95 16.67 13.3716.6713.37 12.92 13.28 7.90 10.70 ●Policy Coordin

ation

South Asia Southeast Asia14.0012.0010.008.006.004.002.000.00

12.098.6610.65

8.31

11.7712.5012.12

10.828.999.91

Policy CoordinationFacilities ConnectivityUnimpeded TradeFinancial IntegrationPeople-to-people BondsIn particular, Singapore ranked 2nd with 79.19 and Indonesia 3rd with 77.24, closely following Russia. Thailand was sixth and captured the top spot in rankings of seven countries with good link types including Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam. And Thailand is very likely to move up in the rankings of countries of the smooth link type. Myanmar was a country of potential links, and ranked 46th with the score of 47.48. Myanmar is most likely to leap up on the list of smooth link types in the near future.Compared to data from 2015, ASEAN countries are developing steadily in connectivity. In 2016, the Five-

Five-Connectivity Index Subject Group, Peking UniversityTable 1

Table 2OPINION

59Connectivity Index of every ASEAN country remained stable, with only some minor ranking changes. Vietnam and the Philippines dropped two places and Myanmar dropped three in the rankings. Laos grabbed fifth place with a rapid rise in the rankings.Table 2 represents Five-Connectivity Index comparison between Southeast Asia and South Asia.Healthy Overall Development in Policy CoordinationThe index of 10 ASEAN countries averages 12.58 in policy coordination, higher than that of other countries (10.97) along the route. Among them, the index of seven countries is above the average, and the index of three countries is below, but very close to the average. This indicates that compared to other countries along the route, China and ASEAN countries are at relatively high levels in policy coordination.China and ASEAN countries have maintained traditional friendly relations with strong mutual trust in politics. At the bilateral level, China has established diplomatic ties with countries throughout the region and set up embassies in the countries. Mutual trust between China and ASEAN countries is ever increasing in politics and strategy, and high-level visits are frequent. These mechanisms have become good channels of policy coordination. Bilateral mechanisms of communication and cooperation are many and diverse. Moreover, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has been deeply aligned with respective development strategies of ASEAN countries. The BRI is highly complementary to the “Two Corridors & One Ring” of Vietnam, the “Rectangular Strategy for Growth” of Cambodia and the “Global Maritime Axis” strategy of Indonesia. At the multilateral level, China has established a strategic partnership with ASEAN as a whole. “10+1” has designated five key cooperative fields, namely agriculture, telecommunications, HR development, mutual investment and development of the Mekong River Basin. The China-ASEAN relationship has become a dialogue partnership with the widest links, greatest achievements and the closest contact. In March 2016, the first Lancang-Mekong cooperation leaders’ meeting was held in Sanya, China’s Hainan Province, officially launching the Lancang-Mekong cooperation mechanism. More than half of the 45 early-harvest projects approved by the first leaders’ meeting are now under construction or in planning. Lancang-Mekong cooperation has also become an important platform for the BRI.