七问美欧债务危机
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欧债危机名词解释欧洲债务危机(European Debt Crisis欧洲债务危机(European Debt Crisis,简称“欧债危机”)是指欧洲主权债务危机,主要是指希腊、爱尔兰、葡萄牙、西班牙和意大利等国家的债务危机,严重者甚至危及整个欧元区。
自2009年7月始,以希腊为首的欧洲债务危机迅速恶化。
2009年10月,欧盟向希腊发放近6000亿欧元救助贷款,但2010年3月,欧洲中央银行就警告希腊,如果不能改革金融市场和采取紧缩措施,将很难获得进一步的资金支持。
同时,西班牙、葡萄牙和意大利也纷纷效仿希腊,推出了规模巨大的经济改革方案,以赢得更多援助资金。
但与此同时,其他成员国却未能出台类似的经济刺激计划,导致危机进一步恶化。
2010年5月,希腊再次提高借款利率,令该国经济前景雪上加霜。
同月,希腊政府决定向国际货币基金组织寻求约5000亿欧元的援助。
在美国的压力下,国际货币基金组织于6月同意向希腊提供总额5600亿欧元的紧急贷款,并随即开始讨论下一步援助计划。
这样,国际货币基金组织向希腊提供的总额度约1万亿欧元的援助资金正式生效。
然而,国际货币基金组织的救助行动对于解决希腊问题显然是杯水车薪。
7月23日,欧盟领导人最终宣布,将对希腊实施更为严厉的制裁,这直接引爆了欧元区的信任危机。
8月3日,德国总理默克尔表示,已准备好进一步实施财政紧缩措施。
11月30日,爱尔兰方面传来噩耗:该国主权信用评级被国际评级机构穆迪下调至投机垃圾级。
一系列的连锁反应开始显现: 10月26日,西班牙股市出现跳水; 10月28日,葡萄牙比塞塔失守10%; 11月2日,意大利银行业恐慌情绪蔓延; 11月4日,希腊股市创出历史新低,国际货币基金组织随后宣布对希腊实施为期三个月的紧急援助,涉及金额3500亿欧元; 11月18日,欧盟委员会批准了规模为9000亿欧元的紧急救援计划; 11月19日,德国马歇尔计划开始实施。
欧债危机解决方案
《欧债危机解决方案》
欧洲债务危机是指自2009年以来,欧盟成员国的债务危机。
由于希腊、意大利、葡萄牙、爱尔兰等国的债务违约和财政问题,导致整个欧元区陷入危机,影响了全球金融市场。
面对这一危机,欧盟和国际金融机构采取了一系列措施来化解危机,寻求解决方案。
首先,欧盟和国际货币基金组织提供了数百亿欧元的紧急救助贷款,帮助受影响国家克服严重的债务问题。
这些救助措施旨在稳定金融市场,防止债务危机蔓延,同时也要求受援国家实施一系列改革措施,包括削减开支、提高税收和改革经济体制。
其次,欧盟成员国通过建立欧洲稳定机制和欧洲稳定机构,为受影响的国家提供财政支持和紧急救助,以保护欧元区的稳定和一体化进程。
此外,欧盟还提出了一系列长期解决方案,包括建立更加紧密的财政联盟、共享债务和经济政策协调等措施,以加强欧元区的稳定和一体化进程。
总的来说,《欧债危机解决方案》是一个综合性的解决方案,旨在通过各种短期和长期的措施,化解债务危机,稳定欧元区的经济和金融体系,同时也为欧盟成员国提供了更多的财政和经济政策协调机制,为欧盟的未来发展奠定了基础。
一.欧债危机的定义:欧洲债务危机即欧洲主权的债务危机。
其是指在2008年金融危机发生后,由希腊单一国家的主权债务危机演变为整个欧元区的债务危机。
二.欧债危机爆发的导火线及过程自2007年夏天次贷危机爆发以来,无论在发达国家还是发展中国家都普遍采取了货币与财政双宽松的刺激政策。
这在一定时期内有效地抑制了全球经济下滑;但与此同时,由于大规模举债,各国政府的债务负担大大提高,特别是对欧洲一些由于人口结构等因素本来就债台高筑的国家更是雪上加霜。
欧洲主权债务危机正是在这种特殊的背景下既偶然又必然地爆发了。
希腊是倒下的第一张多米诺骨牌。
直接起因是2009年11月希腊新政府上台之后,发现上届政府掩盖了真实的财政状况。
新政府将财政赤字由预期的6%上调至12.7%,大大超过《稳定与增长公约》规定的3%的上限。
消息的披露迅速引发了惠誉、标准普尔与穆迪等信用评级机构相继下调了希腊主权债务评级。
2010年5月,希腊主权债务危机全面爆发。
这个希腊财政预算的大洞逐渐扩大,其它欧盟国家如果不想掉进这个洞就并必须得小心而行,特别是那些在财政上比较薄弱的国家。
显然所有欧元国家都想把这个希腊财政预算的大洞填不上,他们这样做是因为一旦一个欧元国家宣布破产,这会对其他经济相连的国家带来严重的后果。
为了填补这个大坑,其他欧元国家,欧洲央行和希腊政府都采取了相应的救助措施。
但是由于这个坑是在是太大了,这个坑的瘟疫效应引起其他欧盟国家西班牙、爱尔兰、葡萄牙和意大利等同时出现了信用危机,受主权债务问题影响国家GDP占到欧元区GDP 的37%,欧债危机由此爆发。
这场欧债危机已经撼动了整个欧元体系。
三.欧债危机产生的原因欧债危机从表面上看是国债危机,但是如果往深处想,其实是整个国家经济的发展模式出现了问题,是整个欧盟区货币制度与财政制度的问题。
目前,美国国债(不含间接债务和隐性债务)总规模为14.27万亿美元,占GDP之比达到98.3%,与发生主权债务危机的欧洲相比,负债水平仅次于希腊和意大利,高于英国、葡萄牙、爱尔兰、西班牙等国。
欧债危机(European debt crisis)The European debt crisis intensifiedThe spectre of a sovereign debt crisis lingers on the continentWith Greece, Ireland, Portugal's sovereign debt crisis warming, the debt crisis began to spread from the periphery to the core countries, Italy and Spain, who will be the European debt crisis, a fall of "Domino" became the talk of boiling point. As of the end of 2010, Italy's public debt to GDP ratio reached 119%, far higher than the upper limit of 60% "Maastricht treaty" provisions, in the EU after Greece 142.8%. In addition, Italy's economic growth is weak, the export growth trend is weak, the import commodity prices are soaring, and the bad economic environment makes Italy's crisis worse. Spain is also faced with the risk of being involved in the debt crisis. Data show that Spain's budget deficit in 2010 as high as 9.2% of gdp. Although the Spanish government is implementing the biggest budget cuts in 30 years, measures have also been taken to raise the retirement age and reduce the cost of layoffs. But the International Fund believes that Spain's measures to prevent the debt crisis are incomplete and face considerable risk of debt. According to reports, the financial giant Soros will blame the European debt crisis on Germany's selfishness and inaction. He believes that the German Prime Minister Merkel insisted on maintaining its own financial system security, and buried the scourge of today's European debt crisis. Italy's prime minister, Berlusconi, called on Congress to pass the austerity package as soon as possible. However, according to statistics, Italy's economy grew by 1.03% in the first quarter of 2011, and this slow economic growth could fall into recessiononce it meets fiscal austerity. If Italy seeks help from the outside world, it must tighten its economy, so it may be caught in a double predicament of recession and rising public debt. As the third and fourth largest economies in the euro area, Italy and Spain are among the most important players in the European economy, and the impact on markets is far weaker than in Greece, when debt defaults occur. In view of the fact that Italy and Spain huge foreign debt, some analysts believe that if the two countries into a debt crisis from market financing, then other EU countries will not have enough power to rescue Italy and Spain, the eurozone may therefore fall apart. From a global perspective, if the European sovereign debt crisis spread to the core countries, the global market will reverse the direction of investment, funds withdrawal from the stock market, commodity markets, access to precious metals markets, such as hedging. This will lead to an obvious fluctuation in asset prices, which may lead to a new round of financial crises. As the debt crisis in Italy and Spain approaches, the euro zone's second largest economy, France, is also facing debt risk. There are signs that market investors are shorting French sovereign bonds, and the debt crisis is pressing.Traces of American debt behind the European debt crisisBehind the European debt crisis is a deeper contest, that is, the United States and Europe are launching a war of currency dominance and debt resources. As a matter of fact, the United States continues to carry out structural authority given by its monetary hegemony". Since the birth of the euro, the euro has been one of the world's most powerful potential competitors, challenging the dollar hegemony system. First, the euro weakensthe dollar's position in international trade. For emerging market countries, the euro provides an alternative currency option to settle the dollar. As the euro area's main export commodities are competitive with the United States, the rise in the euro settlement will inevitably lead to a fall in the dollar settlement. The settlement amount is the pricing power, and the decrease of the US dollar settlement amount means the loss of the pricing power of the United States in the international market. Second, the euro hit the reserve currency position of the dollar. After the birth of the euro, the proportion of the world's total foreign exchange reserves continued to rise, while the dollar continued to decline. A statistical data according to IM F's official foreign exchange reserves, from 1996 to 2009, the dollar in international reserve position has experienced a "inverted U" trend, before the euro was formally established and at the beginning of the establishment, the dollar in international reserve status is rising, the proportion of world reserves from 1995 59% rose to 2001 by the end of 71.5%. But since 2001, the share of the dollar has fallen, and by 2010 it has fallen to 62.1%. However, the threat to the United States seems more than that, and one of the biggest challenges is the scramble for resources between American bonds and European bonds. This is perhaps the biggest concern for the United states. Under the borrowing dependent system, the US long-term international trade deficit and current account deficit can be maintained, and it needs to be guaranteed by the continuous revolving movement of U. S. dollars. To keep the dollar moving round and round, it must depend on exports from other countries in exchange for dollars,Other countries have traded dollars to invest in the UnitedStates by buying American bonds, and the dollar has returned to the United States to finance its debts. What worries the United States is that, like the United States, European countries are basically debt dependent countries". According to the IM F database, world debt issue of the number of the top ten countries, including the United States, 7 European countries and Japan and Australia, the 10 countries foreign bonds accounted for 83.8% of the world, and the eurozone bond market collection scale accounted for 45% of the world. The United States has more than 32% of the shares, this is undoubtedly the biggest challenge for the United States debt dependent system. Since the financial crisis, the Fed has become the biggest buyer of US debt and has monetized its currency through quantitative easing. Since the outbreak of the crisis, the Fed's balance sheet size increased from $899 billion 300 million in June 2007 to $27231 billion in early May 2011, is 3 times more than before the crisis. Now, the Fed is about to stop its $600 billion treasury bond purchase plan in June, and who will continue to take over such a huge debt is the biggest problem. With both the monetary and fiscal pressures on the US, only the creation of a bond that is worse than the US Treasury will allow the financial markets to choose a better one between bad and worse. So, the recent U.S. rating agencies continue to reduce Greece, Ireland, Belgium's sovereign credit rating, turns on the European debt crisis manufacturing turmoil, shorting Euro dollar, using "hedging properties" and a strong stage, the capital back into the United States, while the United States became the winner of the crisis, including Treasury and beauty shares and other institutions bonds popular dollar assets. Although the U.S. Treasury has exceeded the debt ceiling, but the 10 year Treasury yields and30 year Treasury yields hit a five month low, U.S. Treasury bonds being oversubscribed, debt financing smoothly. Between the inside and outside the pincer attack, the European debt crisis is no longer the crisis of the five European countries, the risk of the debt crisis spreading from the marginal countries to the core country is further increasing, and waiting for Europe will be a new round of debt storm. - Zhang MonanEurope's debt crisis or big bangLast weekend, Wei Jianguo, former Vice Minister of Commerce and Secretary General of the China International Exchange Center, said: "in order to guard against risks, China will no longer be eager to buy European debt.". China has bought a lot of European debt (about 1/4 of its foreign exchange reserves), and if the euro falls, China will suffer a huge loss. Europe can only go its own way, China can do very limited". This is a delicate and definite statement. The author believes that this is a correct decision, of course, is a painful decision - not to buy European debt, the United States can not buy more debt, China's foreign exchange reserves to buy what? From the beginning of the euro on Friday afternoon appeared Powei trend, although the U.S. payrolls data range, far less than expected, but the euro is still down after a brief recovery, which indicates that the euro will move closer to the rail under the shock City, probably in the week fell below the 14000 mark integer. The origin of the European debt crisis is the continued decline in competitiveness in the euro area. Before this competition decreased only two or three countries in line, and the debt crisis in Europe is a meeting after the rescue, theeuro zone countries have a obvious weakness. In August, economic data from the core countries of the euro zone were issued with a very negative warning, including Germany's August Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index, with a final value of 50.9, expected to be 52, the lowest since September 2009. France's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index was worse in August, only 49.1. German and French data show that the region's two most powerful countries, the real economy has been growing at almost zero. Although we cannot conclude that Germany and France is a country like Greece dragged down -- save people dragged down is normal, but the conclusion that Germany and France have no spare capacity to save the eurozone two or three countries, is the fact that. Without the economic support of France and France, what happens in the euro area can be expected, and a strong euro is not expected. The second reason for the inevitable occurrence of the European debt crisis is that the rescue plan is impractical. The source of the European debt crisis is the most euro zone countries are a serious violation of financial discipline, but the EU's rescue plan is that Germany and France including the European Central Bank are a serious violation of financial discipline, the use of public funds and savings deposits to buy euro zone government debt line two or three. The results, although we can not say that By no means retrievable, at least to the recipient countries to send the wrong signal, can rely on big body, creditors who. Learned from the foreign media reports, the European Central Bank (ECB) last month decided to purchase the bonds of Italy, the country clearly slow budget consolidation measures.Italy's prime minister Berlusconi's promises to cut huge public debt have gone into empty talk. German media simply said:"because the European Central Bank's intervention, resulting in Italy budget measures even more confusing.". The European Central Bank to buy the bonds of Italy, every budget measures in Italy, the country's bond yields vary due to debt purchase operations of the European Central Bank to decline, the Italy government issued a signal to reduce the deficit can relax. Therefore, the decision to buy Italy's national debt was wrong. It's not just the European central bank that made the mistake. The solution of the European debt crisis is only one, is to give up the tail, the strong euro policy. Of course, this is extremely painful, and the extent of the pain is likely to exceed that of the US subprime crisis in 2008. Third reasons why the debt crisis is inevitable happened 17 euro zone countries is a mess, but not as strong as steel making. The European debt crisis spread from Greece to Ireland, where euro zone leaders gathered countless times, and each time made a statement to the world, showing how strong the euro zone was and how powerful it was. But as soon as the meeting is over, the noise is immediately transmitted through the media, and the small action is constant. Fourth reasons why the debt crisis inevitably happened in real is the main countries of the euro zone leaders lack the political sensitivity andforward-looking, misjudge the situation. How to solve the European debt crisis? It's difficult to drag out September, and the solution is not to buy bonds of troubled countries in the euro area, nor to create what is known as the euro zone's unified bond market. The only way is docked, Greece should be expelled from the euro zone. But objectively speaking, the best moment has been missed, because Italy, the euro zone third, which is much larger than Greece, will have an accident, followed by Spain, Portugal, ireland. To save it, the euro zone has no suchstrength. The last way is to push the euro zone high debt countries selling assets to repay, but the price is only suihangjiushi. The market would work only if the offer was lower, which would require a fall in the euro! To be sure, the ultimate solution to the European debt crisis is to be assessed after the euro crash. Today, the euro has fallen below the European Central Bank's defense line 13850, the lowest drop to 13386, will need at least 15% decline in the future. What about China? Only to see, can not buy, do not want to cover. Foreign exchange reserves are "cocktail", the euro is relative to other currencies down, the euro fell, the dollar will rise, and other currencies will rise. We can be thankful that holdings of euro assets are not many, 1/4 foreign exchange reserves in value, another 3/4 of the reserves in the appreciation of the euro, even if we suffer greatly, loss is not big. The problem is that the euro can not be bought in the future, and the foreign exchange reserves can not continue to increase substantially. The lessons of the European debt crisis tell us not only about the problems in the euro zone countries, but also that the currencies of almost all countries in the world are unreliable. The sure solution is not to expand the reserves indefinitely, but to spend the reserves.The spread of the European debt crisisThe European debt crisis is spreading to the core of the euro zone, this time in france. Moodie, a prominent rating agency, has warned that in the next 3 months whether to consider the French Treasury AAA rating "negative" will be considered". Negative observation is often the prelude to a downgrade. Moodie said in a statement, as with other euro zone sovereigncountries, France's financial position has weakened; the global financial and economic crisis in France, led to the financial indicators is the worst in other AAA countries. At present, a total of 6 countries enjoy the euro area AAA rating, namely France, Germany, Holland, Finland, Austria and Luxemburg, France's highest level of debt. IMF said public debt in France would reach 85% of GDP in 2011 and high in the world class AAA countries. The spread between French and German bunds widened to a record 93.2 basis points in October 17th, compared with just 29 basis points in April. A new wave of pressure on the French rating was largely caused by the exposure of its banking system to sovereign debt in Europe, as well as increased bailouts for other countries. The European Union is preparing to require European banks to increase the size and quality of their core capital, and the government will inject capital into substandard banks. Besides its own burden, France, the second largest economy in the euro area, is the second largest contributor to EU bailout funds. The euro zone is now studying how to expand the size of EFSF's borrowing to prevent a larger economy, such as Italy and Spain, into a crisis, which will add to the burden on public finances in france. In addition, the French economic growth situation also makes public finances not optimistic. In October 18 Pakistan Lu admitted that the forecasts for 2012 GDP growth of 1.75% will be too optimistic.Faubion Zulegdze, the chief economist at the European Policy Centre, argues that France is not very different from Spain in terms of its economic growth potential. The pressure on France's sovereign rating will make it harder for the euro zone to respond to the debt crisis. At present, the AAA rating of EFSF is based on the rating levels of the various fundedcountries, so Moodie also said in 17, if France suffered a downgrade, EFSF's highest rating will be questioned. In response, Europe is working to advance the permanent crisis response mechanism, the European stability mechanism (ESM). The most important feature of ESM is that it enjoys the status of an international institution like IMF without the impact of the investor rating. As scheduled, ESM will replace EFSF in the summer of 2013, but now Europe hopes to advance it by a year, at least in 2012。
欧债危机发生原因和影响及解决措施standalone; self-contained; independent; self-governed;autocephalous; indie; absolute; unattached; substantive一、欧债危机产生的原因一、欧元从诞生之日到次贷危机发生前夕累计升值80%之多,导致欧债广泛受到投资者的欢迎,相应地,举债成本也就变得十分低廉。
在此基础上,诸国积累了大量的政府债务。
高盛就曾帮助希腊政府粉饰财政状况以便其能够大量举债。
二、欧元区只有统一的货币政策而缺乏统一的财政政策,这就使其制度架构存在“先天不足”的缺陷。
某些成员国无法根据本国特有情况在适当时间制定适当的货币政策。
同时,欧洲《稳定与增长公约》中关于财政赤字不得超过该国GDP的3%,公共债务不得超过GDP的60%的规定基本形同虚设,没有得到欧元区国家的遵守和执行。
三、欧洲银行业的信贷大幅扩张,积聚了大量风险。
四、欧洲人口结构老龄化以及过度的福利政策,极大地抑制了欧元区整体竞争力的提升和可持续发展的能力。
这也是欧元区国家长期低增长、高失业,政府债务不断加剧的最根本原因。
欧债危机对欧洲经济的冲击可通过欧洲银行业和非金融部门两个渠道传导。
主权债券的贬值,会直接导致欧洲银行的资产质量大幅缩水。
与此同时,银行自身的融资成本也会呈现出上升的趋势。
这就为政府公共财政部门的危机向银行业的扩散埋下了隐患。
同时,欧债危机还会波及到欧洲的实体经济,主要表现在企业的融资成本也随之上升,资本市场上由于政府融资需求的提高而造成对私人部门消费和投资的“挤出”。
一、外部原因:金融危机中政府加杠杆化使债务负担加重。
金融危机使得各国政府纷纷推出刺激经济增长的宽松政策,高福利、低盈余的希腊无法通过公共财政盈余来支撑过度的举债消费。
评级机构煽风点火,助推危机蔓延。
评级机构不断调低主权债务评级,助推危机进一步蔓延。
全球三大评级机构不断下调上述四国的主权评级。
欧债危机的原因、影响、前景及解决对策一、概述全称为欧洲主权债务危机,是一场自2009年10月起逐渐在部分欧洲国家爆发的金融危机。
其根本原因在于这些国家政府无法及时履行对外债务偿付义务,导致国家资产负债表失衡,主权信用受到破坏。
这场危机不仅影响了欧洲国家的经济发展和社会稳定,也对全球经济产生了深远的冲击。
从原因上来看,欧债危机的爆发具有多方面的复杂性。
欧洲国家经济发展的不平衡、高福利政策带来的财政压力、货币政策与财政政策的不协调等因素都在其中起到了关键作用。
特别是在全球金融危机的背景下,欧洲国家的债务问题进一步加剧,最终导致了危机的全面爆发。
在影响方面,欧债危机对欧洲乃至全球经济产生了广泛而深刻的影响。
它导致了欧元区国家经济增长放缓,财政状况恶化,同时也引发了社会问题和政治动荡。
欧债危机还对全球金融市场产生了强烈的冲击波,股市、汇市和债券市场都受到了不同程度的冲击。
更重要的是,欧债危机还影响了国际贸易,使得贸易保护主义抬头,全球贸易增速放缓。
对于欧债危机的前景,各方观点不一。
有乐观派认为欧洲国家会采取有效措施解决债务问题,实现经济复苏;也有悲观派认为欧债危机将持续恶化,引发全球金融动荡。
多数观点认为,欧债危机的解决需要各方共同努力,加强政策协调,提供必要的支持和援助。
为了应对欧债危机,各国需要采取切实有效的对策。
这包括加强财政整顿,降低债务成本,实施相应的经济增长战略,以及建立更加协调的财政政策与货币政策机制。
全球各国也应加强合作,共同应对欧债危机对全球经济带来的挑战。
欧债危机是一场复杂且严重的经济事件,其原因、影响和前景都具有多方面的复杂性。
只有通过深入分析和研究,我们才能更好地理解这场危机,从而采取有效的对策来应对其带来的挑战。
1. 简述欧债危机的背景及概况又称欧洲主权债务危机,是一场始于2009年的重大经济危机。
其背景源于全球金融危机的余波未平,而欧洲部分国家因长期积累的财政赤字和国债问题,导致主权债务风险凸显,进而引发了市场对这些国家偿债能力的广泛担忧。
欧债危机的解决方案
《欧债危机的解决方案》
欧债危机是指欧洲一些国家的主权债务危机,自2009年开始,并对整个欧洲经济体系造成了巨大的冲击。
欧债危机的解决并非易事,但有一些可行的方案可以帮助这个问题得到解决。
首先,欧洲国家需要加强财政纪律,并制定更加严格的债务限制。
通过稳健的财政政策和财政改革,可以降低国家的债务水平,从而减轻欧洲经济面临的压力。
其次,欧盟成员国需要加强经济一体化,通过建立更加紧密的经济联系,促进经济成长和繁荣。
这可以通过建立统一的货币和金融政策以及加强对金融市场的监管来实现。
另外,欧洲国家还可以通过加强合作和协调来解决欧债危机。
这包括建立有效的危机管理机制、推进经济结构改革、加强对金融机构的监管等。
最后,国际社会和国际金融机构也可以发挥重要作用,通过向危机国家提供援助和支持,帮助它们度过难关。
总之,欧债危机的解决需要欧洲各国和国际社会共同努力,通过加强财政纪律、推进经济一体化、加强合作和协调等方式来解决这一问题。
只有这样,才能够最终解决欧债危机,促进欧洲经济的稳定和发展。
七问美欧债务危机2011年08月12日 08:37:27连日来,美欧股市剧烈动荡,致使全球金融市场出现恐慌情绪,凸显了美欧经济复苏困境和深层政治和经济结构弊端,也使世界上其他国家金融受到巨大的冲击和影响。
美欧经济规模巨大,对世界经济的影响和责任也巨大,应切实反思并改革自己的经济和社会发展政策,切实解决经济“失衡”问题。
欧债危机扩散银行业危机显露欧美市场再次暴跌本周以来全球股市大玩过山车。
全球股市在周一大幅跳水后,周二报复性反弹,而周三欧美股市再度暴跌。
与周一的暴跌不同,周三(10日)欧美市场暴跌不再是缘于美国主权信用评级被下调引发的心理恐慌,而是美欧银行业暴露出的危机新苗头以及欧洲债务危机的扩散。
每每在市场信心不足之际,传闻的杀伤力就尤为强大。
当天美欧市场传言纷纷。
先是在欧洲市场开盘后有传闻说在救援希腊问题上欧洲国家出现分歧,可能延缓实施救援措施,这可能使欧洲主要银行破产,因此法国三大银行股价盘中暴跌。
此后又有消息说法国兴业银行将面临流动性问题,可能需要融资。
而另一则传闻的杀伤力更大:市场纷纷猜测继美国之后,法国将失去3A评级,欧债危机将由意大利蔓延至法国。
当天法国信用违约互换(CDS)价格飙高至175点,是欧元区3A评级国家中债券违约保险成本最高的国家。
>>>详细美国可能在玩一场大阴谋美国可能在玩一场惊天大阴谋,需警惕美国借标普降级洗劫全球财富。
美国首次失去全球“3A”信用评级,全球上演灾难大片,股市全线重挫。
其实美国早就不应该享受最高的“3A”评级,但为什么标普选在美国减赤议案达成后为其降级,这个时间节点的选择很奇妙,因为这很可能是一场成全美国的完美大戏。
【一问】美国政府能否完成减赤目标?美国政府减赤努力任重道远美国财政部10日公布的数据显示,截至今年7月份,2011财年(2010年10月至2011年9月)美国财政赤字已破1万亿美元大关,这表明美国政府在平衡预算方面仍面临较大压力。
居高不下的财政赤字已成为美国经济的重大挑战,美国政府减赤努力任重道远。
按照当前的开支和收入状况,本财年美国联邦政府财政赤字预计将超过1.3万亿美元,从而连续第三年突破1万亿美元大关。
2009财年,美财政赤字达到创纪录的1.41万亿美元,2010财年赤字规模也达到1.29万亿美元。
在2009财年之前,历史上美国联邦政府赤字从未超过1万亿美元。
美国联邦政府债务攀升的局面已延续多年。
小布什政府在2001年和2003年推出的大规模减税方案、耗资上万亿美元的伊拉克和阿富汗两场战争、奥巴马政府制定的经济刺激方案、开支增幅数倍于经济增速的医疗支出是美国债台高筑的四大推手。
国际评级机构标准普尔5日宣布,美国两党达成的减赤方案不足以达到其所认为稳固美国政府中期债务状况所需要的程度,出于对美国财政赤字和债务规模不断增加的担心,决定把美国主权信用评级从顶级的AAA级下调至AA+级。
这一决定也造成近期国际资本市场剧烈波动。
>>>详细新闻分析:标普缘何下调美国主权信用评级标准普尔表示,下调美国主权信用评级主要基于三方面原因,一是美国债务状况堪忧,债务占国内生产总值(GDP)的比例逐年上升,二是美国国会日前通过的提高债务上限法案效力不够,三是标普对美国国会未来应对类似问题能力的信心受挫。
【二问】欧债:“猪”之后会跟着谁?危机由欧元区边缘向中心蔓延连日来,全球股市大跌,重要原因之一就是市场普遍担心欧洲债务形势恶化。
如今,欧债危机触角向意大利、西班牙伸展,“欧猪五国”(PIIGS,即葡萄牙、意大利、爱尔兰、希腊及西班牙五国)有全面沦陷之虞。
世人担忧,“欧猪五国”危局会将更多欧元区国家拖入危机泥潭。
降级旋风横扫欧洲英法AAA评级岌岌可危英国每日电讯报援引资深投资人吉姆·罗杰斯的话说:英国的主权信用将很有可能遭遇降级,并将被迫展开新一轮的量化宽松计划。
除英国外,难以自保的还有法国。
德国《世界报》8月9日报道说,有迹象表明,法国有可能会成为继美国之后第二个失去最高主权债务评级AAA的国家。
文章进而分析说,在欧元区,除了法国,还有德国,奥地利,荷兰,芬兰,卢森堡等国拥有AAA级主权债务评级,但法国被认为是“链条上最薄弱的一环”。
法国政府为此正为保持AAA的评级而努力。
萨科奇政府承诺将减少财政预算,以保持法国主权债务评级保持AAA的水平。
法国预算部部长说,法国已经并将继续持续地减少财政赤字。
欧债危机六大看点欧洲将向何处去?法国总统萨科齐和德国总理默克尔7日发表声明,对意大利和西班牙针对重振公共投资和提高竞争力所采取的措施表示欢迎,希望意西两国尽快全面落实这些措施,因为这对重建欧洲市场信心至关重要。
对希腊的第二轮救助方案7月下旬出炉后不久,意大利和西班牙就再次成为受关注的对象。
美国国会2日刚就提高债务上限达成一致,意大利和西班牙债务形势就被集中炒作,接着连续数日两国债券遭市场疯狂抛售,收益率创14年来新高,市场恐慌情绪不断加剧。
5日,美国主权信用评级首度遭降,进一步在欧洲引发担忧。
欧债危机如何演绎,欧洲将向何处去?欧债危机制度性根源自2009年希腊债务危机爆发以来,欧盟便积极寻求应对之道。
时至今日,危机不仅未能解除,反而扩大。
分析人士认为,入不敷出的高福利制度是其主因。
欧盟统计局数据显示,欧盟用于社会保障的支出占其成员国GDP总量的27.2%。
靠借债维持的高福利制度既增加劳动力成本、降低经济竞争力,又令财政支出流动性减弱,削弱政府刺激经济能力,最终导致经济增速放缓,税收萎缩,各国只能借债还钱,陷入恶性循环。
欧元区现有单一货币体制为欧债危机的扩散提供了途径。
国际货币基金组织指出,欧元区机构缺乏对政府预算的中央控制,这意味着一个国家的税收和开支决定可能通过其对货币的影响成为所有其他国家的问题。
同时,由于采用单一货币,陷入欧债困境的欧元区国家无法利用货币贬值和通货膨胀手段来渡过难关,只能寻求紧缩财政或外界援助。
紧缩财政将损害现有福利政策,激起民众反弹。
而外界援助则后继乏力。
欧洲金融稳定机制(EFSF)7500亿欧元的总规模,不足以援助负债3万亿欧元的“欧猪五国”,防止债务危机向其他国家蔓延。
【三问】美元体系和美国霸权是否会动摇?美债危机余波未了美元体系是否会因此崩溃?丧失AAA评级,进一步动摇了美元作为国际储备货币的强势地位。
据英国《金融时报》分析,早在标普调降美国信用评级之前,美国的信用已在很多国家心目中遭到降级了,美元的地位不可能不受到影响。
据摩根大通调查,美国今年第二季度个人支出的增长率,几乎是非衰退时期的最低数字。
今年前6个月,美国国内生产总值仅增长了0.8%。
美国经济的疲弱,早已动摇了美元的地位。
分析人士认为,全球经济需要另一种储备货币,但问题在于目前尚没有可靠的替代品。
由于欧元区部分国家近来的经济动荡,欧元已丧失了成为储备货币的优势。
日元的状况虽然要好于欧元,但还未成气候。
在这种情况下,中国的人民币已成为最受市场看重的潜在储备货币。
有分析人士认为,人民币成为储备货币的一天可能比大多数人想象的来得早。
美国政府在缩减开支方面无所作为,美联储资产负债表的规模无限制膨胀,早已引发了许多国家对美元储备货币地位的不满。
今年6月份,瑞银集团对数十位中央银行储备管理经理进行的一项调查显示,超过半数的经理人认为美元可能在未来25年内丧失全球性货币地位,取而代之的将是货币资产组合。
许多受访人预计,由于主权违约已成为全球经济的最大风险,黄金将在今后一年内成为表现最佳的资产。
>>>详细美国霸权被“无解”的美债危机动摇美国已经深陷入不敷出的危机境地。
目前,包括14万多亿美元的国债在内,美国的总债务已高达55万亿美元,人均负债17.6万美元,家庭平均负债67万美元。
而税基薄弱的美国年度税收额仅约3万亿美元,中等收入家庭年均收入约5万美元。
美国债务危机是一个“混世魔王”,期待它温顺地进化成“救世主”是不切实际的幻想。
它不只是单一的财政或财政体系危机,而是美国的经济增长危机、经济制度危机、宪政危机、霸权危机,以及世界政治经济秩序不公正不合理危机等混合体的外表包装,它的任何破损都使其他危机暴露在外,特别是美国霸权受到动摇。
>>>详细【四问】美债危机暴露了美国哪些软肋?新华国际时评:美债风波暴露美国制度软肋为了选举政治和党派利益而苦苦缠斗、争吵和交易来的债限协议,既不会拥有解决美债积弊的诚意与力度,也缺乏重振美国经济的通盘考量与长远谋划,甚至还可能为未来的债务风险新添一些伏笔。
其中,最令世人失望的,倒不在于明年美国大选之后,这样的闹剧可能还会重演,而在于从协议内容来看,两党都安于、囿于借新债还旧债的老路子,不论代言哪个利益群体,都断然不肯割肉疗疮,唯恐因此失去选票。
《今日美国》的评论一针见血:“(这)就像是把国家的债务和赤字这个皮球在相似的路上尽可能地踢远了一些,后面还会有人捡起来。
”人世间,再长的道路终有一天会走到头,不负责任地踢皮球终有一天可能踢到铁板。
即便强悍如美国,也不可以无限期地随意透支未来,更不可以赖账。
不管美债市场多大、多深、多么经得起经济和政治的双重折腾,就连美国人自己,也未必相信它会是那艘永不沉没的穿越版泰坦尼克号。
经历这场债务风波之后,外国投资者虽因形格势禁,无可奈何地在继续购买美债,但同时也纷纷另作打算,或增持他国货币,或瞩目新兴市场,或转向投资开发自然资源。
此次美债风波算是就此平息了,但它给世界经济带来的阴影却没那么容易清除;它所暴露出的制度软肋动摇了世界对美国的信心,而这种信心也没那么容易恢复。
人们相信美国,投资美国,如今,这一切却多多少少变成了离现实渐行渐远的迷思。
美债有风险,需防陷太深,或成全球市场的共识。
>>>详细美国体制修复能力遭挑战美国历史上曾出现过两次大的体制性变革,一次是19世纪末到20世纪初的“进步运动”,解决的是美国从自由资本主义向垄断资本主义转型过程中出现的工业化、城市化、垄断化、国际化等重大难题;另一次是20世纪30年代到40年代的“罗斯福新政”,解决的则是从一般垄断资本主义向国家垄断资本主义转轨过程中面临的全方位挑战。
“进步运动”的成功,得益于民主、共和两党和衷共济,虽改革路径不同,但目标高度一致;“罗斯福新政”的成功,则与罗斯福连续十三年执政的“绝对权威”分不开。
而两次改革成功的另一共同条件是,一战和二战的爆发转移了矛盾、拉动了经济、刺激了就业。
奥巴马今日之处境则完全不同。
内部,两党恶斗、党内分化,缺乏大的政治变革所急需的政治基础,而且社会矛盾多元、利益群体多样,减福利、增税收、削经费样样都难,以致奥巴马空有变革之志,而无变革之法;外部,欧日等西方盟国日子比美国更难,新兴大国群体性崛起势头不减,国际体系变迁深度展开,使美国借助国际机制、转嫁矛盾的难度增大。