W u HongyingOn Latin American Protests in 2019Wu Hongying*Abstract: A large-scale wave o f mass protests broke out in fifteen LatinAm erican countries during 2019. Some protests led to the resignation o fthe president and the collapse o f the governm ent. Others caused socialunrest and bloody conflicts. Some protests led to a national “curfew”，andthe governm ent was forced to cancel m ajor international conferences. Fora time, over ten countries were engaged in turbulent and chaotic activities.Accordingly, the 2019 Latin American protests w ere also dubbed uLatinA m erica’s T urm oil” by the international media. The scale, scope andim pact o f the protests have been rarely seen over the last forty years. Theyconstituted part o f the global chaos o f 2019. The cause was not only theanxious response o f the Latin American countries facing global changesnot seen for a century, but also a concentrated outbreak o f political,economic and social contradictions that has been accumulating in certainLatin American countries over a long period o f time. Facing unprecedentedglobal change over a century, the Latin Am erican countries will be able tousher in the “Latin American Spring” only if they carry out profoundreform with great courage, and achieve significant progress in theirpolitical system s, economic structures, and social security systems.Key words: Latin Am erica’s protests，Latin American turmoil, the w orld’sunprecedented changes for a century, reform and adjustment, Latin AmericanSpringT he so-called “Latin American protests”，also known as “Latin America’s turmoil”，*1refers to the large-scale wave of mass protests that swept• Dr. Wu H ongying is a research professor with the Institute o f Latin American Studies, CICIR, vice president o f Chinese A ssociation o f Latin American Studies and State Council Allowance Expert.1Rafael Romo, “Five keys to understanding Latin A m erica’s turmoil,” December 4, 2019, accessed March 31, 2020, https:///2019/12/03/americas/five-keys-latin-am erica-protests-rom o-intl/index.htm l.88CIR Vol. 30 No. 2On Latin American Protests in 2019across 15 countries in Latin America during 2019, as well as the severe social unrest and sharp political turbulence that ensued. This constituted part of the 2019 global chaos. The cause was not only the anxious response of the Latin American countries facing global changes not seen for a century, but also a concentrated outbreak of political, economic and social contradictions that has been accumulating in certain Latin American countries over a long period of time. To some extent, it was also a concentrated reflection of the insufficient governance systems and capabilities of the Latin American countries. Facing unprecedented global change over a century, what next for the Latin American countries? This has become the “challenge of a century” for the Latin American countries in the 21 st century.An Unprecedented Wave of Mass Protests“2019 has been marked by political turmoil and popular outcry throughout Latin America.”i A large-scale wave of mass protests broke out in 15 Latin American countries during 2019. For a while, Latin America, known as the “Forgotten Continent”,12let the world break its glasses and ask, “W hat’s happening in Latin America?”3In sum, “Latin America’s turm oir presents with the following characteristics:Firstly, the wave of protests ran throughout the year 2019. In January, Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido, with the support of the United States，“declared himself the interim president.” He fought fiercely with the elected President Nicolas Maduro, triggering sharp domestic political turmoil. In February, the Haitians protested against the corruption of officials on a large scale, demanding that President Moiz step down. In March, mass protests broke out in Nicaragua against pension reforms, and demanded that President Daniel Ortega, and his wife and Vice President1James B osw orth，“2019 has been a difficult year in Latin Am erica — 2020 may only get worse/* November 26, 2019, accessed March 31, 2020, https://www.businessinsider .com/political-instability-protests-in-latin-am erica-m ay-intensify-in-2020-2019-11.2Tom Phillips, <4An explosion o f protest, a howl o f rage-but not a Latin American spring,M October 24, 2019, accessed March 31, 2020, https:///world /2019/oct/24/latin-american-spring-protests-chile-ecuador-bolivia-haiti.3Rafael Romo, “Five keys to understanding Latin America ’ s turmoil.”CIR M arch/April 202089W u HongyingRosario Murillo step down. In April, a number of protests broke out in Paraguay, calling for the government to fight corruption. In May, demonstrations erupted in Honduras against the government' s plans to privatize health and education. In June, a national strike took place in Brazil, protesting government pension reforms. In July, the Venezuelan opposition set off another round of protests. In August, large-scale demonstrations broke out in M exico1s capital Mexico City, protesting against crimes related to discrimination against women. In August, protests against political corruption erupted in Honduras. In September, Peruvian President Martin Vizcarra announced the dissolution of the Congress, while the opposition-controlled parliament announced the suspension of the presidency. The “conflict between the legislative and the executive bodies” reached levels unprecedented in Peru，s history. In September, a national strike in Argentina burst out against a government budget cut. In early October, mass protests in Ecuador broke out against the cancellation of fuel subsidies. This escalated into serious social unrest, and the government was forced to “move the capital” to another city. In mid-October, large-scale protests were triggered by rising subway prices in Chile, and quickly escalated into bloody violent clashes. President Miguel Juan Sebastian Pifiera Echenique was forced to abandon hosting the APEC Informal Leadership Meeting and the UN Climate Change Conference. In late October, the Bolivian opposition accused President Morales of seeking re-election in order to cheat in the general election, and launched large-scale protests. Later these protests evolved into serious social unrest. At last, with the militaryJ s interference, President Evo Moraleswas forced to resign and went into exile in Mexico and Argentina. In late November, large-scale demonstrations broke out in Colombia in protest against the government' s privatization of state-owned enterprises and plans for pension reduction. These protests quickly escalated into violent clashes. In October, large-scale protests broke out simultaneously in eight countries (Haiti, Honduras, Argentina, Peru, Ecuador, Chile, Bolivia, Colombia), and this led to a resonance effect that propelled the “Latin American Turmoil” to a climax. A headline in Mexico *s El Universal newspaper in October declared Latin America90CIR Vol. 30 N o. 2On Latin American Protests in 2019and the Caribbean “red hot”.1Secondly, the scope of the protests was wide. “Historically，Latin America has seen two such similar periods of unified protests: during severe austerity in the 1980s and again during economic and political crises from 1998 to 2002.” But this round of wave of protests was more universal and more widespread. Fifteen countries out of Latin America’s 33 experienced large-scale waves of mass protests in 2019, accounting for nearly one-half of the Latin American countries and over 85 percent of Latin America' s area and population. At the same time, the wave of protests erupted not only in Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, and Colombia, the four largest Latin American economies, but also in some small countries such as Paraguay and Honduras; and not only in the OECD countries suchas Chile and Mexico, but also in Haiti, the w orld1s least developed country. Besides this, mass protests erupted not only in the right-wing ruled countries such as Brazil, Chile, and Colombia, but also in left-wing ruled countries such as Mexico, Venezuela, and Bolivia. In sum, this round of large-scale protests swept throughout the Latin American region, from South America to Central America, the Caribbean and Mexico in North America.Thirdly, young people comprised the main force in the protests. In the past, protesters represented a cross-section of social groups, with different interests. However, this wave of protests was characterized by the involvement of younger initiators and participants. Chile’s protests were first initiated by young people, and later received a wide response from people of all walksof life. They evolved into mass protests that involved over 1.2 million people. The Colombian protests were started by young students. These protests later escalated into a nationwide strike. The organizers of the El Salvador protest were also young college students, who pointed directly at fraud in the election of university presidents. It is clear that groups ranging from 18 to 35 years old, who are thoughtful, dare to act, and make good use of mobile phones, are not only the main force of this wave of protests,1Tom Phillips, 44 An explosion o f protest, a howl o f rage-but not a Latin American spring. ”CIR M arch/A pril 202091W u Hongyingbut that they are important organizers and leaders. As Latin American media put it: u Young students have demonstrated the role of leaders in the history of the country, and recently reshaped the meaning of the struggle, strengthened their representation in society and served as the starting point for the struggle for reform. Through social struggle, they awakened the people, fought for the constitutional order, and ushered in the ‘ Latin American Spring，•”丨Fourthly, social media acts as an “invisible organizer”. In the past, Latin American protests were mobilized principally by political parties, unions, or societies through “face to face” means. However, this wave of protests was organized chiefly through “invisible，inaudible, and intangible” social media. Regardless of the protests in Chile, Colombia, Peru, Mexico and other countries, almost all participants used social media such as Twitter, Instagram, Facebook12 on their mobile phones to contact, exchange, and communicate. Obviously, in an era where everyone has a mobile phone and social media has become the most convenient tool of communication, “social media and mobile technology have made it easy to organize effective protests, allowing young people to overcome government censorship and control.’’3The “bow-headed youth” and “headless groups” have become the most distinctive characteristics of this wave of protests. New social media has played the essential role of “invisible organizer” and “silent leader”. Latin American media commented that: “Unlike the second half of the 20th century, Latin Americans used modem scientific and technological achievements to organize and mobilize protests.” In Chile, students are using social networks to mobilize and organize demonstrations. As social media played a special role in this wave of protests, “Latin1O m ar Antonio Diaz Botiva, uColom bia y la prim avera latinoam ericana [Colom bia and the Latin American Spring],M O ctober 21, 2019, accessed March 31, 2020, https://s2orillas.co/colom bia-y-la-prim avera-latinoam ericana/.2Jorge Ramos, “Latin Americans are fUrious，” accessed March 31，2020, November 13, 2019, https://jorgeram /en/latin-am ericans-are-flirious/.3Ibid.92CIR Vol. 30 No. 2On Latin American Protests in 2019America’s turmoil” of 2019 is also referred to as the “high-tech protests.”1 Fifthly, violent tendencies are an obvious feature of this wave of protests. Latin Americans have a gentle nature and a respect for peace. However, the violent color of the 2019 protests was marked. Almost all protests began with peaceful demonstrations but ended with violent clashes. Some illegal activities also occurred, such as burning cars, burning subways, burning banks, burning public facilities, and so on. These protests “have the key signature of arson”，causing not only arson crime, but also escalating into bloody violence. The first incidence of violence was reported in Haiti on February 11, with four people getting killed on the first day of the anti-government riots. In Ecuador, ten people were killed and over 1,000 injured in the protests.12Protests in Bolivia left at least five people dead and dozens more injured.3At least three people were killed in the Colombian protests.4In Chile, there were 2,808 injuries during demonstrations, 1,737 of which were caused by firearms.5On the one hand the violent color of the protests reflects the extreme anger of the Latin American people with regard to the status quo. On the other hand, it also reflects the inadequate capacity of the Latin American governments to cope with serious crises. Although the protests in Latin America have largely been quashed, the root cause of the problems still exists, and it is possible that another wave of protests will break out in the future.Finally, “Latin America’s turmoil” constituted part of the global 1Monica Clua Losada and David J. Bailey, “The fUture o f protest is high tech -justlook at the Catalan independence m ovement/’November 5, 2019, accessed March 31，2020,https:///the-fUture-of-protest-is-high-tech-just-look-at-the-catalan-independence -movement-125776.2Jorge Ram os, <4Latin Am ericans are furious.M3“Bolivia protests: five killed in rally calling for exiled M orales’return，”N ovem ber 16, 2019, accessed M arch 31, 2020, https://w w /w orld /2019/nov/l 6/bolivia-protests-five-killed-in-rally-calling-for-exiled-m oraless-retum.4Manuel Rueda, 44Colombians join Latin Am erica' s protests,，?November 25, 2019,accessed March 31, 2020, https://news/world/2019/ll/25/ap-explains -colom bia-joins-latin-am ericas-wave-of-protests/.5Patricia Luna and Eva Vergara, 44 Chileans who lost eyes in protests demonstrate incapital,?，November 28, 2019, accessed March 31, 2020, https:///news/w orld/2019/11 /29/chileans-w ho-lost-eyes-in-protests-dem onstrate-in-capital/.CIR M arch/A pril 202093W u Hongyingchaos of 2019. Large-scale protests also erupted in Albania, Sudan, South Africa, Egypt, Algeria, Iran, Lebanon, Iraq, South Korea, India, Pakistan, Nepal, Indonesia, Kazakhstan and China?s Hong Kong, Spain, Germany, Switzerland, Romania, Serbia, Malta and Russia, etc. There were also the French “yellow vests movement”，the British “Brexit” campaign, the United States' anti-Trump protests, etc. The scope and scale of global protests in 2019 has been rarely seen for 50 years, making 2019 the most important year for global protests since 1968. Although these protests have no direct cause-effect relationship, they mutually transmit, imitate, and support one another, forming a global resonance effect and a butterfly effect. For example, protesters in Chile and Ecuador who “arsoned” and burned subways were clearly affected by the French “yellow vests movement” and the Hong Kong protests to a large degree. The British Magazine, the Economist,stated that 44Latin American protests form part of the wave of global protests in 2019.”Why Did the Latin American Protests Happen?Why did such large-scale protests break out in Latin America in 2019? This almost became a “question of the world”. After care f ill study, it can be found that the causes of “Latin America’s turmoil” are complex, with direct, indirect reasons, with historical and practical triggers, as well as domestic and external factors. Different countries also had their own different reasons. In general, the protests were characterized by the following different reasons.Firstly, some “seemingly small factors”1triggered the big protests. In Chile, large-scale protests broke out because of the increase of 30 pesos in the price of a subway ticket. This uled to the worst street violence in decades”，12and pushed the wave of Latin American protests to a high point1Adam Taylor, “Global protests share themes o f economic anger and political hopelessness/' October 26, 2019, accessed March 31, 2020,https://www. /world/2019/10/25/global-wave-protests-share-themes-economic-anger-political-hopelessness/.2Fareed Zakaria，“Why are there so m any protests across the globe right now?，” October 25, 2019, accessed March 31, 2020, https:///opinions /global-opinions/why-are-there-so-many-protests-across-the-globe-right-now/2019/10/24/ 5ced 176c-f69b-11 e9-ad8b-85e2aa00b5ce_story.htm l.94CIR Vol. 30 No. 2On Latin American Protests in 2019throughout the year. In Ecuador, the big demonstrations were triggered by the elimination of fuel subsidies. In Nicaragua and Colombia, many protestors opposed the governm ent's pensions reductions. In Honduras, the demonstrators reacted against reforms in medical care and education. In Argentina, some people took to the streets because of the planned budget cuts. Meanwhile, protests in Haiti, Bolivia, Peru, Colombia, and El Salvador were triggered by corruption scandals in the political parties and corruption charges against political figures. These “trigger points were considered the final straw in a build-up of small actions of perceived mismanagement and repression.”Secondly, the ongoing economic recession is a direct cause of the protests. Due to domestic and international factors, Latin America' s economy has continued to decline over the last six years. Latin A m erica's GDP grewby just 0.1 percent in 2019, which was lower than the 1.2 percent growth in 2017 and 1.0 percent growth in 2018. It was the slowest growth rate in three years, and growth in 2020 is not looking optimistic. Accordingly, 2014-2020 is set to become 4ia period of the lowest economic growth in Latin America for the past 40 years.”1Latin American economic growth in 2019 neither reached the average for developing countries (3.9 percent) nor the global average (3 percent); it did not reach the average level of developed countries (1.7 percent), and was far lower than the growth rateof Asian countries (5.9 percent), the region with the slowest global economic growth for six consecutive years. In 2019, twenty-three of Latin Am erica1 s33 countries did not grow as fast as they did in 2018, and 14 countries had growth rates of one percent or less. In particular, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Argentina, and Haiti had the slowest growth rates in the region: - 25.5 percent, -5.3 percent, -3.0 percent, and -0.7 percent respectively. At the same time, Latin America' s per capita GDP fell by 4.0 percent between 2014 and 2019. Unemployment rose from 8.0 percent in 2018 to 8.2 percent in 2019, and the unemployed population rose to 25.2 million, a1ECLAC, Preliminary O verview o f the Econom ies o f Latin A m erica and the Caribbean 2019,(U nited Nations publication, 2019), 11.CIR M arch/A pril 202095W u Hongyingrecord high.1 As a result of the economic downturn, the fiscal revenues of almost all governments decreased, and many countries were forced to reduce their public service subsidies and welfare benefits. This led to a decline in people’s living standards. The general population was extremely dissatisfied with the government’s austerity policies. In particular, the emerging middle class, who are at risk of “returning to poverty”，and the youth, who face the “triple pressures” of higher education, employment and life, were the most dissatisfied with the status quo, and they have become the initiators and main driving forces behind the protests. One Latin American scholar pointed out that ua fundamental factor of protest is the economic slowdown and stagnation suffered by most of the economies of the region as of 2014, with the end of the boom in raw materials.”12Thirdly, serious social injustice is another main cause of the protests. From the colonial era to today, Latin American economy and politics have basically followed the trajectory of “rich economy” and “elite politics”，that is, “from colonial times through today, Latin American economies have been set up for the benefit of the few.”3Although most Latin American countries won national independence in the 1830s, and the politics and economy of each country underwent nearly two hundred years of development, ordinary people didn’t really enjoy the benefits brought about by economic growth, except for political voting rights. In the first decade of the 21st century, with the rise of the “Golden Decade” of commodity prices, the left-wing Latin American governments generally adopted some social subsidy policies and poverty reduction measures. Brazil, for example, introduced the “Zero Hunger Program”，and the “Family Subsidies Plan”，which significantly reduced the number of people living in poverty. As a result, “while achieving strong economic1ECLAC, Preliminary O verview o f the E conom ies o f Latin Am erica and the Caribbean 2019, \ \9-\2\.2Gerardo Lissardy, uPor que la idea de que A m erica Latina gira hacia la derecha o izquierda perdio sentido en 2019 [Why the idea that Latin America turns to the right or left became meaningless in 2019]/' accessed March 31, 2020, https:///mundo /noticias-am erica-latina-50818892.3Jorge Ramos, “Latin Americans are furious.”96CIR Vol. 30 N o. 2On Latin American Protests in 2019growth, social injustice also declined.，M However, since 2014, as the economy has continued to decline, government revenue cuts and social subsidies have also been reduced. Public services have had to reduce accordingly, and this has led to a decline in the standard of living of ordinary people, a widening gap between rich and poor, and an aggravation of social injustice. uLatin America is still the most unequal region in the world; a huge gap continues to separate the wealthy and the poor.”123According to statistics, uLatin American countries occupy eight of the top ten spots in the list of most economically unequal.” Chile is the country with the highest economic freedoms, the highest per capita income, the lowest poverty rate, and the highest per capita social expenditure in Latin America. It stands to reason that large-scale protests should not be a feature of life here. But a closer look reveals that since Chile1 s education, healthcare, and transportation industries are heavily privatized, ordinary people enjoy less public welfare. As a result, 10 percent of wealthy people occupy an irrational wealth distribution of 37 percent of the national GDP. College students face the tremendous pressure of having to repay their education loans 20 years after graduation. Ordinary people deal with the daily reality of high prices. As a Chilean student in C hile’s capital Santiago said: “the pie is big enough for everybody, but those in power do not want to share with the middle and lower classes.，，3Indeed, social disparity is not only a deeply entrenched problem in Chile, but also in the region as a whole. This problem is tends not to be obvious during economic upswings, but it is particularly prominent and very sensitive during any rapid economic downturn. The wave of protests in Latin America in 2019 demonstrates once again that u Income inequality seems to have added an economic insecurity that helped lead to anger and protests”4. In particular, “the pressured middle class is extremely angry about corruption and inequality^, so they took to the streets1Julian M essina and Joana Silva, Wage Inequality in Latin Am erica.(World Bank, 2018), 1.2Jorge Ram os, “Latin Americans are ftirious.”3Rafael Romo, “Five keys to understanding Latin A m erica’s turm oil.”4Adam Taylor, <4A global wave o f protests share them es o f economic anger and political hopelessness/1 October 26,2019, accessed March 31,2020Jittps://www.washingtonpost .comAvaid/2019/10/25/global-wave-protests-share-themes-economic-anger-political-hopelessness/.CIR M arch/A pril 202097W u Hongyingto issue their “voice of anger”.1Fourthly, insufficient governance systems and incompetent governance capacity are also important reasons. After independence, most countries in Latin America generally followed the Western democratic political system. They formulated democratic constitutions, implemented the separation of powers, encouraged party politics, and promoted universal suffrage. In the 1980s, after the democratic movement erupted once again in Latin American countries, the region became a “democratic continent.” However, the large-scale protests that broke out in Latin America in 2019 fully exposed the lack of or immaturity of national governance systems and capabilities in the region. From the perspective of the legal system, the constitutional system of the Latin American countries is pretty complete, and the legal system is quite mature, but most of this is in paper and form. For example, most countries have formulated very strict laws, regulations and policies to guard against the corruption about which people are so angry. But “there are many examples of codes of conduct or internal policies that become dead letters or decorate a shelf.”12From the perspective of the political system, the Latin American countries have generally adopted the political system of “separation of three powers”. This was originally designed to achieve decentralization and seek a balance of power. In fact, however, it is a common phenomenon that the legislative, executive, and judicial branches often disagree with one another and are engaged in long-term combat. During this wave of protests, Venezuela' s u dispute between the executive and legislative branchesled to the appearance of “two presidents” and “two parliamentarians”.Peru’s “dispute between the executive and legislative branches” led to “a government with no president for a while”. As such, “Latin America’s citizens are angry at their political systems due to corruption and a lack of results on citizen1Ibid.2Yoab Bitran, “乙Podemos hablar de una ‘Prim avera Latinoam ericana’en Anticorrupci6n? [Can we speak of a “Latin American Spring” in Anticorruption?]，” March 8, 2018, accessed March 31, 2020, https://es.weforum.oi^/agenda/2018/03/podemos-hablar-de -una-prim avera-latinoam ericana-en-anticorrupcion/.98CIR Vol. 30 No. 2On Latin American Protests in 2019security and economic promises.”1From the perspective of party politics，the Latin Am erican countries generally im plem ent a tw o-party or multi-party system, but a result of this is that almost all political parties act out of one-party self-interest, ignore national interests and blindly compete for power. Ultimately this leads to the frequent occurrence o f party disputes. Most ruling parties lack the ability to prevent and resolve economic and social crises. From the perspective of government policies, the Latin American countries generally adopt a presidential tenure system, usually lasting four, five or six years. As a result, government policies are often based on short-term considerations, focusing on internal performance only, and it is difficult to make long-term and general plans. It is also difficult to promote major and far-reaching structural reforms. This results in more serious outcomes, such as disparity between rich and poor, the solidification of classes, and narrow upward flow channels. From the perspective of the political leaders, when a country needs to formulate a national development strategy or promote a major social reform agenda, it needs visionary, ambitious, and responsible leaders, and these leaders and their teams must plan, coordinate, communicate and promote. However, “Latin America’s turmoil” of 2019 demonstrates that most of the main political party leaders and national leaders lack the courage and ability to govern the country effectively, not to mention the ability to resolve and prevent crises. As stated in the World Economic Forum report, uthe weakness of the institutions and fragile rule of law that most of the region presents is an obstacle to the success of these initiatives.”12*Fifthly, external factors play the role of “important accomplice”. The internal causes of “Latin America’s turmoil” of 2019 were economic recession, political corruption, and social injustice. External factors, in particular that of the role of the US, are also significant in this situation of chaos. Since taking office, President Donald Trump has carried out a foreign policy that puts “America First”，and drastically adjusted the US1James Bosworth, “2019 has been a difficult year in Latin America —2020 may only get worse.”2Yoab Bitran, “&Podemos hablar de una 4 Prim avera Latinoam ericana ’en Anticorrupci6n? (Can we speak o f a “Latin American Spring” in A nticorruption?).’’CIR M arch/A pril 202099。
