英文版宏观行业研究报告
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宏观、行业研究报告
1、纺织服装行业:冬装销售和年报预期不佳,行业整体机会仍需等待
2、医药生物：发改委麻醉药调价方案出台点评报告:部分麻醉药品提价,对后续降价方案保持乐观
3、机械：指导意见方向明确,机器人行业发展潜力凸显
4、建材：农村需求逐步释放,管道行业发展提速前行
5、传播与文化：游戏用户数量快速增长,移动游戏行业爆发
6、旅游：交通部正制定促进邮轮运输业发展指导意见
……
ENGLISH VERSION:
Healthcare: Growth recovery on track in Oct
2.China Auto Drivers:Growing but slowing
Summary:
November sales seemingly below trend: CAAM's release of Nov au
tosales suggests auto sales momentum has now slowed to below tr
end aftertwo consecutive months of remarkable growth (21%/ 2
4% YoY for PV inSep/Oct). Specifically, overall sales growth i
n Nov stand at 14% YoY.
While PV remains stronger (16% YoY, 6% MoM) than CV, such g
rowth isnow below the historical average of 14% MoM/24% YoY. Sh
ould weworry about this? Probably no. Our base case is that aut
o sales growth willdecelerate to 9% in 2014 vs 15% this year du
e to a higher base. Togetherwith the leadership change in Oct-1
2 resulting in a high base in Nov-12, aseeming deceleration i
n YoY growth in Nov-13 is very much expected. Ourkey observatio ns in November sales include:1) PV again grows faster than C
V (16% vs 5% YoY in Nov-13). Year toNov PV sales now stand at 1 5% growth, while CV is only 7%.
2) SUV fever persists: Nov SUV sales grew at 59% YoY, leadi ng YTDgrowth to 49%. SUV as a percentage of total PV sales no
w stay at ~18%vs 13% in Nov-12. We believe China’s SUV penetrat ion could top 20%by end-2014 and reach a similar level of 25-3 0% as Korea, Taiwan or theUS in 3-4 years.
Average discounts of the premium segment elevated, while mi d-lowend were flat: On the dealers’ end, we see widening discou nts forselective brands in the premium segment, including impor ted models,while mid- and low-end were largely flat. Our key fi ndings on pricediscounts in 2H-Nov vs 1H-Nov include:1) Averag e discounts in the premium segment widened by 27bps to ~9.7%i
n 2H-Nov; mid- and low-end stayed flat at ~8.6% and 7.7%.
2) Premium models: Discounts of Benz’s C-class widened by ~ 230bps to16.6%, while premium of S-class narrowed to 6.2% fro
m 8.8% overMSRP. BMW’s 3-series and 7-series elevated 130bps an d 90bps to~8.4% and ~15.3%, respectively. Audi's A4 and A6 disc ounts were flat at~12.8% and ~14.2%.
3) Mid- to low-end: Discount of Honda’s new Accord continue
d to widenfollowing its launch in Sep-13 and is now at ~2.8% (v s 0% in 2H-Sep).
On the other hand, the discount of Nissan’s Teana narrowe d for the firsttime since its new launch in Apr-13 and is now a t ~3.2%. Toyota'sCamry and Hyundai’s Sonata were both flat at 1 1.8% and 16.7%. GreatWall’s Haval SUV and Geely’s EC7 were als o flat at 2% and 6.5%.
4) Imported models’ discounts widened modestly to ~8.8% i n 2H-Nov from~8.6% in 1H-Nov. Similar trends were seen in bot
h tier-one (10% to10.3%) and tier0two (8% to 8.2%) cities.
Recommendation: We stick to our view of favouring OEMs over components or dealers. We like Brilliance, Great Wall, GAC an
d Geely.
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