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耐克公司：资本成本2001年7月5日，KIMI FORD，NORTHPOINT 集团（实际是一家基金管理公司）的portforlio经理，仔细思考着分析人员关于耐克公司的积极评论。
耐克的股票价格从年初开始显著下跌。
FORD正在考虑为她管理的NORTHPOINT 大资本基金公司购买一些股份，这家基金公司主要投资财富杂志世界500强企业，其重点是价值投资。
它持有最多的股份包括埃克森公司、通用公司、麦当劳、3M及其它大企业，通常是经济历史悠久的股票。
虽然股票市场在过去18个月下跌，NORTHPOINT大资本基金公司却表现极好。
2000年，这家基金回报率20.7%，而S&P500甚至下跌了10.1%。
到2001年6月底，这家基金的YEAR-TO-DATE回报率为6.4%，而S&P500为7.3%。
一个星期前的2001年6月28日，耐克公司组织了分析人员会议，发布2001财政年度业绩（耐克的财务年度结束于每年5月份）。
不过，这次会议还有另外一个目的：耐克公司管理层希望沟通重振公司的战略。
1997年以来，耐克公司的总收入上升并稳定于90亿美元左右，而净收入从8亿美元左右下跌到5.8亿美元左右（见表一）。
耐克在美国运动鞋市场的市场份额从1997年的48%下降到2000年的42%。
此外，最近的供应链问题及美元升值的负面影响对收产生的负面影响。
会上，管理层公布了致力于既首先要关注增长，同时也注重经营成效的计划。
为了提高收入，公司将在中等价位产品类别内（这一类别的运动鞋每双售价为70-90美元）开发更多的运动鞋产品，而耐克公司近年来忽视了这一类别。
耐克公司也计划推动它的服装产品部门，这一部门在服装行业老将MINDY CROSSMAN （MINDY CROSSMAN在2000年9月加入耐克公司，她是JONES 服装集团的POLO牛崽裤部门的前任董事长及首席执行官）的领导下表现极佳。
在成本方面，耐克公司将在费用控制上作出更大努力。
Graduate School of Business Administration University Version 2.0 of VirginiaUVA-F-1353 Version 2.0Nike, Inc.: Cost of Capital On July 5, 2001, Kimi Ford, a portfolio manager at NorthPoint Group, a mutual fund management firm, pored over analyst write-ups of Nike, Inc., the athletic shoe manufacturer. Nike’s share price had declined significantly from the start of the year. Kimi was considering buying some shares for the fund she managed, the NorthPoint Large-Cap Fund, which invested mostly in Fortune 500 companies with an emphasis on value investing. Its top holdings included ExxonMobil, General Motors, McDonald’s, 3M and other large-cap, generally old-economy stocks. While the stock market declined over the last 18 months, NorthPoint Large-Cap had performed extremely well. In 2000, the fund earned a return of 20.7 percent even as the S&P 500 fell 10.1 percent. The fund’s year-to-date returns at the end of June, 2001 stood at 6.4 percent versus the S&P 500’s minus 7.3 percent. Only a week ago, on June 28, 2001, Nike held an analysts’ meeting to disclose its fiscal year 2001 results1. However, the meeting had another purpose: Nike management wanted to communicate a strategy for revitalizing the company. Since 1997, Nike’s revenues had plateaued at around $9 billion, while net income had fallen from almost $800 million to $580 million (see Exhibit 1). Nike’s market share in U.S. athletic shoes had fallen from 48 percent in 1997 to 42 percent in 2000.2 In addition, recent supply-chain issues and the adverse effect of a strong dollar had negatively affected revenue. At the meeting, management revealed plans to address both top-line growth and operating performance. To boost revenue, the company would develop more athletic shoe products in the mid-priced segment3 – a segment that it had overlooked in recent years. Nike also planned to push its apparel line, which, under the recent leadership of industry veteran Mindy Grossman4 had performed extremely well. On the cost side, Nike would exert more effort on expense control. Finally, company executives reiterated their long-term revenue growth targets of 8-10 percent, and earnings growth targets of above 15 percent.Nike’s fiscal year ended in May. Robson, Douglas, “Just Do…Something: Nike’s insularity and foot-dragging have it running in place”, Business Week, July 2, 2001 3 Sneakers in this segment sold for $70-$90 a pair. 4 Mindy Grossman joined Nike in September 2000. She was the former president and chief executive of Jones Apparel Group's Polo Jeans division.2 1This case was prepared from publicly available information by Jessica Chan under the supervision of Professor Robert F. Bruner. The financial support of the Batten Institute is gratefully acknowledged. This case was written as a basis for class discussion rather than to illustrate effective or ineffective handling of an administrative situation. Copyright 2001 by the University of Virginia Darden School Foundation, Charlottesville, VA. All rights reserved. To order copies, send an e-mail to dardencases@. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, used in a spreadsheet, or transmitted in any form or by any means— electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise—without the permission of the Darden School Foundation. Rev. 10/02.-2-UVA-F-1353Analyst reactions were mixed. Some thought the financial targets to be too aggressive; others saw significant growth opportunities in apparel and in Nike’s international businesses. Kimi Ford read all the analyst reports that she could find about the June 28 meeting, but the reports gave her no clear guidance: a Lehman Brothers report recommended a ‘Strong Buy’ while UBS Warburg and CSFB analysts expressed misgivings about the company and recommended a ‘Hold’. Kimi decided instead to develop her own discounted-cash-flow forecast to come to a clearer conclusion. Her forecast showed that at a discount rate of 12 percent, Nike was overvalued at its current share price of $42.09 (see Exhibit 2). However, she had done a quick sensitivity analysis that revealed Nike was undervalued at discount rates below 11.2 percent. Since she was about to go into a meeting, she requested her new assistant, Joanna Cohen, to estimate Nike’s cost of capital. Joanna immediately gathered all the data she thought she might need (Exhibits 1 through 4) and set out to work on her analysis. At the end of the day, she submitted her cost of capital estimate and a memo (Exhibit 5) explaining her assumptions to Ms. Ford.-3-UVA-F-1353Exhibit 1 Nike, Inc.: Cost of Capital Consolidated Income StatementsYear Ended May 31 (In millions except per share data) Revenues Cost of goods sold Gross profit Selling and administrative Operating income Interest expense Other expense, net Restructuring charge, net Income before income taxes Income taxes Net income Diluted earnings per common share Average shares outstanding (diluted) Growth (%) Revenue Operating income Net income Margins (%) Gross margin Operating margin Net margin Effective tax rate (%)* 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 20014,760.8 2,865.3 1,895.6 1,209.8 685.8 24.2 11.7 649.9 250.2 399.7 1.36 294.06,470.6 3,906.7 2,563.9 1,588.6 975.3 39.5 36.7 899.1 345.9 553.2 1.88 293.69,186.5 5,503.0 3,683.5 2,303.7 1,379.8 52.3 32.3 1,295.2 499.4 795.8 2.68 297.09,553.1 6,065.5 3,487.6 2,623.8 863.8 60.0 20.9 129.9 653.0 253.4 399.6 1.35 296.08,776.9 5,493.5 3,283.4 2,426.6 856.8 44.1 21.5 45.1 746.1 294.7 451.4 1.57 287.58,995.1 5,403.8 3,591.3 2,606.4 984.9 45.0 23.2 (2.5) 919.2 340.1 579.1 2.07 279.89,488.8 5,784.9 3,703.9 2,689.7 1,014.2 58.7 34.1 921.4 331.7 589.7 2.16 273.335.9 42.2 38.442.0 41.5 43.94.0 (37.4) (49.8)(8.1) (0.8) 13.02.5 15.0 28.35.5 3.0 1.839.6 15.1 8.5 38.540.1 15.0 8.7 38.636.5 9.0 4.2 38.837.4 9.8 5.1 39.539.9 10.9 6.4 37.039.0 10.7 6.2 36.0*The U.S. statutory tax rate was 35%. The state tax varied yearly from 2.5% to 3.5%. Source: Company's 10-K SEC filing, UBS Warburg-4Exhibit 2 Nike, Inc.: Cost of Capital Discounted Cash Flow Analysis2002 Assumptions: Revenue growth (%) COGS/Sales (%) S&A/Sales (%) Tax rate (%) Current assets/Sales (%) Current liabilities/Sales (%) Yearly depreciation and capex equal each other. Cost of capital (%) Terminal value growth rate (%) Discounted Cash Flow Operating income Taxes NOPAT Capex, net of depreciation Change in NWC Free cash flow Terminal value Total flows Present value of flows Enterprise value Less: current outstanding debt Equity value Current shares outstanding Equity value per share at 12% Sensitivity of equity value to discount rate: Discount rate 8.00% 8.50% 9.00% 9.50% 10.00% 10.50% 11.00% 11.17% 11.50% 12.00% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009UVA-F-1353201020117.0 60.0 28.0 38.0 38.0 11.5 12.0 3.06.5 60.0 27.5 38.0 38.0 11.56.5 59.5 27.0 38.0 38.0 11.56.5 59.5 26.5 38.0 38.0 11.56.0 59.0 26.0 38.0 38.0 11.56.0 59.0 25.5 38.0 38.0 11.56.0 58.5 25.0 38.0 38.0 11.56.0 58.5 25.0 38.0 38.0 11.56.0 58.0 25.0 38.0 38.0 11.56.0 58.0 25.0 38.0 38.0 11.51,218.4 463.0 755.4 8.8 764.1 764.1 682.3 11,415.7 1,296.6 10,119.1 271.5 $ 37.271,351.6 513.6 838.0 (174.9) 663.1 663.1 528.61,554.6 590.8 963.9 (186.3) 777.6 777.6 553.51,717.0 652.5 1,064.5 (198.4) 866.2 866.2 550.51,950.0 741.0 1,209.0 (195.0) 1,014.0 1,014.0 575.42,135.9 811.7 1,324.3 (206.7) 1,117.6 1,117.6 566.22,410.2 915.9 1,494.3 (219.1) 1,275.2 1,275.2 576.82,554.8 970.8 1,584.0 (232.3) 1,351.7 1,351.7 545.92,790.1 1,060.2 1,729.9 (246.2) 1,483.7 1,483.7 535.02,957.5 1,123.9 1,833.7 (261.0) 1,572.7 17,998.7 19,571.5 6,301.5Current share price:$42.09Note: Terminal value is estimated using the constant growth model: Equity value $ 75.80 67.85 61.25 55.68 50.92 46.81 43.22 42.09 40.07 37.27 TV = FCF10 * (1 + Terminal value growth rate) WACC - g TV = $1,572.7 * (1.03) 12% - 3%-5Exhibit 3 Nike, Inc.: Cost of Capital Consolidated Balance SheetsMay 31, As of (In millions) Assets Current Assets: Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories Deferred income taxes Prepaid expenses Total current assets Property, plant and equipment, net Identifiable intangible assets and goodwill, net Deferred income taxes and other assets Total assets Liabilities and shareholders' equity Current Liabilities: Current portion of long-term debt Notes payable Accounts payable Accrued liabilities Income taxes payable Total current liabilities Long-term debt Deferred income taxes and other liabilities Redeemable preferred stock Shareholders' equity: Common stock, par Capital in excess of stated value Unearned stock compensation Accumulated other comprehensive income Retained earnings Total shareholders' equity Total liabilities and shareholders' equity 2000 2001UVA-F-1353$254.3 1,569.4 1,446.0 111.5 215.2 3,596.4$304.0 1,621.4 1,424.1 113.3 162.5 3,625.31,583.4 410.9 266.2 $ 5,856.91,618.8 397.3 178.2 $ 5,819.6$50.1 924.2 543.8 621.9 2,140.0 470.3 110.3 0.3$5.4 855.3 432.0 472.1 21.9 1,786.7 435.9 102.2 0.32.8 369.0 (11.7) (111.1) 2,887.0 3,136.0 $ 5,856.92.8 459.4 (9.9) (152.1) 3,194.3 3,494.5 $ 5,819.6Source: Company 10-K SEC filing.-6-UVA-F-1353Exhibit 4 Nike, Inc.: Cost of Capital Capital Market and Financial Information On or Around July 5, 2001Current yields on U.S. Treasuries 3-month 6-month 1-year 5-year 10-year 20-year 3.59% 3.59% 3.59% 4.88% 5.39% 5.74%Nike Share Price Performance Relative to S&P500: January 2000 to July 5, 20011.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 Feb-00 Aug-00 May-00 Sep-00 Feb-01 May-01 Nov-00 Jan-00 Jun-00 Jan-01 Jun-01 Jul-00 Mar-00 Apr-00 Mar-01 Dec-00 Oct-00 Apr-01 Jul-01Historical Equity Risk Premiums (1926-1999) Geometric mean 5.90% Arithmetic mean 7.50% Current Yield on Publicly Traded Nike Debt* Coupon 6.75% paid semi-annually Issued 07/15/96 Maturity 07/15/21 Current Price $ 95.60 Nike Historic Betas 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 YTD 06/30/00 AverageNikeS&P 5000.98 0.84 0.84 0.63 0.83 0.69 0.80Nike share price on July 5, 2001: Dividend History and Forecasts Paymt Dates 31-Mar 30-Jun 1997 0.10 0.10 1998 0.12 0.12 1999 0.12 0.12 2000 0.12 0.12 2001 0.12 0.12$42.0930-Sep 0.10 0.12 0.12 0.1231-Dec 0.10 0.12 0.12 0.12Total 0.40 0.48 0.48 0.48Consensus EPS estimates: FY 2002 FY 2003 $ 2.32 $ 2.67Value Line Forecast of Dividend Growth from '98-00 to '04-'06: 5.50%* Data have been modified for teaching purposes. Sources of data: Bloomberg Financial Services, Ibbotson Associates Yearbook 1999, Value Line Investment Survey, IBES-7Exhibit 5 Nike, Inc.: Cost of Capital Joanna’s Analysis TO: FROM: DATE: SUBJECT: Kimi Ford Joanna Cohen July 6, 2001 Nike’s Cost of CapitalUVA-F-1353Based on the following assumptions, my estimate of Nike’s cost of capital is 8.4 percent: I. Single or Multiple Costs of Capital? The first question I considered was whether to use single or multiple costs of capital given that Nike has multiple business segments. Aside from footwear, which makes up 62 percent of revenue, Nike also sells apparel (30 percent of revenue) that complement its footwear products. In addition, Nike sells sport balls, timepieces, eyewear, skates, bats, and other equipment designed for sports activities. Equipment products account for 3.6 percent of revenue. Finally, Nike also sells some non-Nike branded products such as Cole-Haan dress and casual footwear, and ice skates, skate blades, hockey sticks, hockey jerseys and other products under the Bauer trademark. Non-Nike brands account for 4.5 percent of revenue. I asked myself whether Nike’s business segments had different enough risks from each other to warrant different costs of capital. Were their profiles really different? I concluded that it was only the Cole-Haan line that was somewhat different; the rest were all sports-related businesses. However, since Cole-Haan makes up only a tiny fraction of revenues, I did not think it necessary to compute a separate cost of capital. As for the apparel and footwear lines, they are sold through the same marketing and distribution channels and are often marketed in "collections" of similar design. I believe they face the same risk factors, as such, I decided to compute only one cost of capital for the whole company. II. Methodology for Calculating the Cost of Capital: WACC Since Nike is funded with both debt and equity, I used the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) method. Based on the latest available balance sheet, debt as a proportion of total capital makes up 27.0 percent and equity accounts for 73.0 percent:-8Capital sources Book Values Debt Current portion of long-term debt $ 5.4 Notes payable 855.3 Long-term debt 435.9 $ 1,296.6 Equity III. Cost of Debt $3,494.5UVA-F-135327.0% of total capital 73.0% of total capitalMy estimate of Nike’s cost of debt is 4.3 percent. I arrived at this estimate by taking total interest expense for the year 2001 and dividing it by the company’s average debt balance.5 The rate is lower than Treasury yields but that is because Nike raised a portion of its funding needs through Japanese yen notes, which carry rates between 2.0 percent to 4.3 percent. After adjusting for tax, the cost of debt comes out to 2.7 percent. I used a tax rate of 38 percent, which I obtained by adding state taxes of 3 percent to the U.S. statutory tax rate. Historically, Nike’s state taxes have ranged from 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent. IV. Cost of Equity I estimated the cost of equity using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). Other methods such as the Dividend Discount Model (DDM) and the Earnings Capitalization Ratio can be used to estimate the cost of equity. However, in my opinion, CAPM is the superior method. My estimate of Nike’s cost of equity is 10.5 percent. I used the current yield on 20-year Treasury bonds as my risk-free rate, and the compound average premium of the market over Treasury bonds (5.9 percent) as my risk premium. For beta I took the average of Nike’s beta from 1996 to the present. V. Putting it All Together Inputting all my assumptions into the WACC formula, my estimate of Nike’s cost of capital is 8.4 percent. WACC = Kd (1-t) * D/(D+E) + Ke * E/(D+E) = 2.7% * 27.0% + 10.5% * 73.0% = 8.4%5Debt balances as of May 31, 2000 and 2001 were $1,444.6 and $1,296.6 respectively.。
投资组合案例1耐克公司资本成本估算陈润城（韦昭亦陈明）2014—10—28目录一、前言 (1)二、资本成本的计算 (2)2.1计算权益资本成本 (2)2.2计算债务资本成本 (2)三：资本结构中负债和权益占的比重计算 (3)3.1债务占的资本资产的比重 (3)3.2。
权益占资本资产的比重 (3)四：计算加权平均资本成本 (3)五：结论 (4)附录 (5)案例目标我们小组在本投资组合案例中先运用CAPM模型计算出权益资本成本，再加上计算得来的债务资本成本，从而估算出2001年耐克公司的资本成本WACC。
一、前言NIKE是全球著名的体育运动品牌,英文原意指希腊胜利女神，中文译为耐克。
公司总部位于美国俄勒冈州。
公司生产的体育用品包罗万象，例如服装，鞋类，运动器材等.耐克商标图案是个小钩子。
耐克一直将激励全世界的每一位运动员并为其献上最好的产品视为光荣的任务。
耐克首创的气垫技术给体育界带来了一场革命。
运用这项技术制造出的运动鞋可以很好地保护运动员的膝盖,在其在作剧烈运动落地时减小对膝盖的影响。
耐克公司的销售收入从1997年开始一直在90亿美元左右徘徊，而净利润已经从8亿美元下降到5。
8亿美元左右（见表1-3).耐克在美国运动鞋市场的份额由1997年的48％下降到2000年的42％.耐克公司于2001年6月28日召开了分析员会议，发布其2001年会计年度业绩（耐克公司的会计年度截止于每年5月份)。
耐克公司在这次会议的另外一个目的：耐克公司管理层希望在会上介绍公司重振雄风的战略。
在会议上，管理层披露了公司的最高产量增长计划和经营业绩预测。
为了增加销售收入，公司将在中档价位板块开发更多的运动鞋产品，还计划进一步开拓服装业务。
在成本方面,耐克公司将加强成本控制。
最后,公司高管重申了他们的长期销售收入增长目标是8％至10%,利润增长目标在15％以上。
当时,一份雷曼兄弟公司的报告建议福特“强力买入”，而瑞银华宝及瑞士信贷第一波士顿的分析员则表达了对公司的担忧，并建议她“按兵不动"，于是福特就决定自己进行计算预测来得出更加清晰的结论。
