标准普尔、穆迪主权评级标准

Table 3a: S&P’s sovereign rating methodology profile, 2002Stability and legitimacy of political institutions Popular participation in political processesOrderliness of leadership successionTransparency in economic policy decisions and objectivesPublic SecurityPolitical risk Geopolitical RiskProsperity, diversity and degree to which economy is market-oriented Income disparitiesEffectiveness of financial sector in intermediating fundsCompetitiveness and profitability of non financial private sector Efficiency of public sectorProtectionism and other non market influencesIncome and economic structure Labor flexibilitySize and composition of savings and investmentEconomic growth prospects Rate and pattern of economic growthGeneral government revenue, expenditure and surplus/deficit trends Revenue-raising flexibility and efficiencyExpenditure effectiveness and pressuresTimeliness, coverage and transparency in reportingFiscal flexibility Pension obligationsGeneral government gross and net debt as a percentage of GDP Share of revenue devoted to interestCurrency composition and maturity profileGeneral government debt burdenDepth and breadth of local capital markets Size and health of non financial public-sector enterprisesOffshore & contingent liabilitiesRobustness of financial sector Price behavior in economic cyclesMoney and credit expansionCompatibility of exchange-rate regime and monetary goalsInstitutional factors such as central bank independenceMonetary stability Range and efficiency of monetary policy toolsImpact of fiscal and monetary policies on external accountsStructure of the current accountComposition of capital flowsExternal liquidity Reserve adequacyGross and net public-sector external debtMaturity profile, currency composition and sensitivity to interest rates Access to concessional fundingPublic-sector external debt burden Debt service burdenGross and net financial sector external debtGross and net non financial private-sector external debtMaturity profile, currency composition and sensitivity to interest rates Access to concessional fundingPrivate-sector external debt burdenDebt service burden Source: S&P’s (2002b).Table 3b: Moody’s sovereign rating methodology profile, 2004Nominal GDP (US$ Bil.)Population (Mil.)GDP per capita (US$)GDP per capita (PPP basis, US$)Nominal GDP (% change, local currency)Real GDP (% change)Inflation (CPI, % change Dec/Dec)Gross Investment/GDPGross Domestic Saving/GDPNominal Exports of G & S (% change, US$ basis)Nominal Imports of G & S (% change, US$ basis)Economic structure and performance Openness of the EconomyGen. Gov. Revenue/GDPGen. Gov. Expenditures/GDPGen. Gov. Financial Balance/GDPGen. Gov. Primary Balance/GDPGen. Gov. Debt (US$ Bil.)Gen. Gov. Debt/GDPGen. Gov. Debt/Gen. Gov. RevenueGen. Gov. Int. Pymt/Gen. Gov. RevenueGovernment finance Gen. Gov. FC & FC-indexed Debt/GG DebtNominal Exchange Rate (local currency per US$, Dec)Real Eff. Exchange Rate (% change)Current Account Balance (US$ Bil.)Current Account Balance/GDPExternal Debt (US$ Bil.)Short-term External Debt/Total External DebtExternal Debt/GDPExternal Debt/CA ReceiptsInterest Paid on External Debt (US$ Bil.)Amortization Paid on External Debt (US$ Bil.)Net Foreign Direct Investment/GDPOfficial Forex Reserves (US$ Bil.)External payments and debt Net Foreign Assets of Domestic Banks (US$ Bil.)M2 (% change Dec/Dec)Short-term Nominal Interest Rate (% per annum, Dec 31)Domestic Credit (% change Dec/Dec)Domestic Credit/GDPM2/Official Forex Reserves (X)Total External Debt/Official Forex ReservesDebt Service RatioExternal Vulnerability IndicatorLiquidity RatioTotal Liab. due BIS Banks/Total Assets Held in BIS Banks"Dollarization" RatioMonetary, external vulnerability and liquidity indicators"Dollarization" Vulnerability Indicator Source: Moody’s (2004b).Table 4a: S&P’s subsovereign rating methodology, 2005Sovereign factors Demographics Economic structure EconomyGrowth prospects Intergovernmental system stability and predictability System structureand managementManagement capacity and institutional legitimacy Revenue sources and flexibility Expenditure trends and flexibility Fiscal flexibilityand performanceBudgetary performance and financing requirements Liquidity and debt management Debt burdenFinancial position Off-balance-sheet liabilitiesSource: S&P’s (2005a).Table 4b: Moody’s subsovereign rating methodology, 2005Population Gross Domestic ProductGDP per capita GDP per capita as a % of National Average Real GDP (% change)Unemployment Rate (%)Economic structure and performance National Unemployment RateGross Direct and Guaranteed DebtNet Direct and Guaranteed DebtNet Direct and Guaranteed Debt per capitaNet Direct and Guaranteed Debt/GDPNet Direct and Guaranteed Debt/Operating Revenue (%)Net Direct and Guaranteed Debt/Total Revenue (%)Foreign Currency Gross Direct Debt (after swaps)/Gross Direct Debt (%)Short-term Gross Direct Debt/Gross Direct Debt (%)Short-term and Variable Rate Long-term Gross Direct Debt/Gross Direct Debt (%)Debt profile Weighted Average Maturity of Gross Direct Debt (years)Discretionary Own Source Revenue/Operating Revenue (%)Intergovernmental Transfers/Operating Revenue (%)Earmarked Revenue/Operating Revenue (%)Interest Payments/Operating Revenue (%)Debt Service/Total Revenue (%)Accrual Financing Surplus (Requirement)/Total Revenue (%)Cash Financing Surplus (Requirement)/Total Revenue (%)Gross Borrowing Need/Total Revenue (%)Total Expenditures per capita (US$)Total Expenditures/GDP (%)Primary Operating Balance/Operating Revenue (%)Gross Operating Balance/Operating Revenue (%)Net Operating Balance/Operating Revenue (%)Self-financing RatioCapital Spending/Total Expenditures (%)5-year Total Revenue CAGR less 5-year Total Expenditure CAGR (%)Financial performance Net Working Capital/Total Expenditures (%)Source: Moody’s (2005b).。