估值培训(全)

史上最全的投资估值方法和技术：如何估值及注意事项在投资的时候，对企业的进行估值是极其重要的一个环节，而如何做出准确的估值就是一项考验投资者眼光的工作。

关于估值及常见估值方法公司估值方法通常分为两类：一类是相对估值方法，特点是主要采用乘数方法，较为简便，如P/E估值法、P/B估值法、EV/EBITDA 估值法、PEG估值法、市销率估值法、EV/销售收入估值法、RNAV估值法；另一类是绝对估值方法，特点是主要采用折现方法，如股利贴现模型、自由现金流模型等。

一、企业的商业模式决定了估值模式1. 重资产型企业（如传统制造业），以净资产估值方式为主，盈利估值方式为辅。

2. 轻资产型企业（如服务业），以盈利估值方式为主，净资产估值方式为辅。

3. 互联网企业，以用户数、点击数和市场份额为远景考量，以市销率为主。

4. 新兴行业和高科技企业，以市场份额为远景考量，以市销率为主。

二、市值与企业价值无论使用哪一种估值方法，市值都是一种最有效的参照物。

市值的意义不等同于股价市值＝股价总股份数市值被看做是市场投资者对企业价值的认可，侧重于相对的“量级”而非绝对值的高低。

国际市场上通常以100亿美元市值作为优秀的成熟大型企业的量级标准，500亿美元市值则是一个国际化超大型企业的量级标准，而千亿市值则象征着企业至高无上的地位。

市值的意义在于量级比较，而非绝对值。

市值比较既然市值体现的是企业的量级，那么同类企业的量级对比就非常具有市场意义。

【例如】同样是影视制作与发行企业，国内华谊兄弟市值419亿人民币，折合约68亿美元，而美国梦工厂（DWA）市值25亿美元。

另外，华谊兄弟2012年收入为13亿人民币（2.12亿美元），同期梦工厂收入为2.13亿美元。

这两家公司的收入在一个量级上，而市值量级却不在一个水平上。

由此推测，华谊兄弟可能被严重高估。

当然，高估值体现了市场预期定价，高估低估不构成买卖依据，但这是一个警示信号。

精明的投资者可以采取对冲套利策略。

A P R I L 2010I C T L Y P R I V A T E A N DC O N F IDE N T I A LTransaction multiplesTrading multiples IntroductionDiscounted cash flow (“DCF”)Overview of the sessionR O D U C T I O N T O V A L U A T I O N梧桐树下整理What does the term “value”mean?1The Oxford Dictionary definition“the material or monetary worth of a thing; the amount at which it may be estimated interms of some medium of exchange or other standard of a like in nature”It is important to note that there is no general statutory definition of value Valuation is an art, not a science 2In practice, we rely heavily on experience and judgement1Extracts taken from ‘The Valuation of Business, Shares and Other Equity’; Wayne Lonergan 2Gold Coast Selection Trust v. Humphrey; 1948R O D U C T I O N T O V A L U A T I O N梧桐树下整理Why valuation is important?R O D U C T I O N T O V A L U A T I O N梧桐树下整理J.P. Morgan uses a number of valuation methodologies“Public MarketValuation”Value based onmarket trading multiples of comparable companiesApplied usinghistorical and prospective multiplesDoes not include acontrol premium“Intrinsic” value ofbusinessPresent value ofprojected free cash flowsIncorporates bothshort-term and long-term expected performanceRisk in cash flowsand capitalstructure captured in discount rateValue to afinancial/LBO buyerValue based ondebt repayment and return on equity investmentLiquidationanalysisBreak-up analysis Historical tradingperformanceExpected IPOvaluationDiscounted futureshare priceEPS impact Dividend discountmodelR O D U C T I O NT OV A L U A T I O N梧桐树下整理The final recommended valuation is a triangulation of each of the methodologiesR O D U C T I O N T OV A L U A T I O N梧桐树下整理1Based on Project X team estimates, which forecast Jun-09F EBITDA to be A$33.0mm 2Based on the management 30-Sep-08 presentation Jun-09F EBITDA of A$35.5mmThe valuation summary is one of the most important slides in a valuation presentationR O D U C T I O N T OV A L U A T I O N梧桐树下整理Transaction multiplesTrading multiples IntroductionDiscounted cash flow (“DCF”)Overview of the sessionR O D U C T I O N T O V A L U A T I O N梧桐树下整理DCF allows for rigorous analysis of valueDCF -mechanism used to estimate the value of an asset by discounting the estimated futurecash flows generated by the asset by a rate that reflects the risk of the cash flowsFree cash flow to the firm (FCFF) model = present value of expected future cash flows Dividend discount model = present value of expected future dividendsForces an understanding of the value drivers of the asset (revenue and cost) of the underlyingbusiness/unitCan divide value into componentsValue of various businesses, product lines or divisions (“sum of the parts”valuation)Value of free cash flows versus terminal value (TV can be very important) Contribution of various synergies (e.g. cost reductions, cross-selling) Various cases can be evaluatedUpside (favourable) versus downside (unfavourable) cases Key sensitivities on price, volumes, cost, growth etc.梧桐树下整理DCF has three key componentsProjecting cash flows requires in-depth understanding of the business and the industryIndustry outlook Expansion opportunities Company and competitor reports/presentations Equity research analyst reports and industry sector reports Other (e.g. market data such as forward curves, regulators)RODUCTI ON T OVALUAT IO N Competitive position Ongoing reinvestment needs Sources of informationNew product lines and Greenfield expansionsDevelopment costsEconomies of scaleWorking capitalRequired capital expendituresDiscretionary investmentsAnticipated industry growth (supply versus demand)Major opportunities and risksHow does this impact on the company in question?Pricing flexibilityPossible market share changesCost structure梧桐树下整理Use of financial statement analysis in practiceDCF has three key componentsROD UCTI ONT O V ALUAT ION 梧桐树下整理The cost of equity is a major component of the WACCThe cost of equity represents the long-term return expected by the market for this project Industry wide use of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM)Practical issues when using the CAPMExtremely difficult to estimate an “appropriate”beta (e.g. data issues, length of estimation period, benchmark rate of return)Sometimes include a country risk premiumRODUCT IONT OVALU A T I O N10 year bond yield Predicted betas Estimated using various techniques 11.50% 5.50% 1.00 6.00%=+x =+x 梧桐树下整理Cost of debt calculationRODUCTIONT O VA LUA TI O NGenerally use cost of a company’s medium-term debt (7-10 year money)Domestic debtQuoted as spread over a benchmark rate—Benchmark rates include BBSW, 10-year government bondsAdjusted for tax-deductibility of interest expenseCheck this against the approximate borrowing costs associated with a company’s corporatecredit rating and/or comparable companies梧桐树下整理DCF has three key componentsJPMorgan’s approach to free cash flow and valuationFree cash flow is the cash that remains after all necessary reinvestments have been made, e.g. capital expenditure and working capitalFree cash flow is measured prior to any debt service (interest and debt repayment), but after ‘cash’taxesNote the effect of carryforward losses on taxes paidFree cash flow therefore is the amount of cash that can be distributed to shareholders and debt holders (also known as the ‘unlevered cash flow’)Cash flows discounted at the weighted-average cost of capital to calculate firm valueSometimes we calculate cash flows after interest expense/income (‘levered’cash flow)Levered cash flows discounted at the cost of equityPresent value represents equity valueRODUCTIONTO VAL UATI ON梧桐树下整理Summary presentation of DCF resultsTransaction multiples Trading multiples IntroductionDiscounted cash flow (“DCF”)Overview of the sessionRODUCTIONTOVALUATION梧桐树下整理Firm value and equity value are two different concepts . . .1The value of debt should be a market value. It may be appropriate to assume book value of debt approximates the market value as long as the company’s credit profile has not changed significantly since the existing debt was issued.2Net debt equals total debt (short and long-term) + minority interest + preferred equity + capitalized leases -cash and cash equivalents.RODUC T IO NTO V A LU ATION梧桐树下整理. . . and are used for different multiplesThe defining difference lies in the treatment of debt and its associated cost (interest expense) A multiple that has debt in the numerator must have a statistic before interest expense in thedenominatorR O D U C T I O N T OV A L U A T I O N梧桐树下整理A broad range of trading multiples are typically usedR O D U C T I O N T OV A L U A T I O NFirm value / sales (LTM, FY1, FY2) Generally not very accurate although essential for high-tech companies Firm value / EBITDA (LTM, FY1, FY2)Generally most accurate multiple to use (watch out for interest income) Good ratio in cyclical industries Good for cross-country comparisons Independent of leverageFirm value / EBIT (LTM, FY1, FY2) Most useful when assessing a capital intensive businessMarket cap. / Net income (also known as P/E)Historical P/E ratio – affected by one-off chargesForward looking P/E – actively used by Wall Street analysts; forward looking – avoids problems with different fiscal years Market cap. / book value Most appropriate for financial institutions – Australian trading bank multiples in particular Firm value / total assets Useful when assessing utilities and other fixed-asset based companies Industry specificPrice per subscriber / barrel / production, etc.梧桐树下整理Example trading comparables pageR O D U C T I O NT O V A L U A T I O NAusenco 1,248 1,211 4.0x 3.3x 21.0x 15.6x 22.2x 16.5x 28.1x 21.5x 3.1% 4.0% Monadelphous 1,260 1,186 1.2x 1.1x 12.2x 10.8x 14.1x 12.4x 20.4x 18.2x 6.3% 7.2% Walter Diversified 276 325 1.1x 1.0x7.6x6.4x 10.9x8.9x 15.9x 13.4x3.4% 3.9% Sedgman 555 560 2.5x 2.2x 10.7x 9.2x 13.8x 11.9x 18.6x 15.5x3.5%4.4% Industrea 521 514 4.1x 2.9x 19.9x 14.2x 21.3x 15.0x 24.8x 20.1x 1.9% 1.9% Cardno 454 497 1.3x 1.1x 10.9x 8.9x 12.2x 10.0x 16.5x 13.2x 4.6% 5.9% Coffey 444 493 1.1x 1.0x 10.0x 9.0x 11.8x 10.4x 16.6x 14.3x 6.6%7.3% RCR Tomlinson283 304 0.6x 0.5x 5.5x 4.8x7.0x6.1x9.5x8.0x3.5%4.1% AJ Lucas 208 238 0.8x 0.5x9.3x5.6x 13.3x 7.9x 16.6x 11.0x0.7% 0.0% Lycopodium 1781671.5x 1.4x 11.1x 9.6x 11.7x 10.1x 16.6x 13.8x 6.4%7.3%Source: IBES, IRESS, Company reportsNote: Calendarised to 30 June; Market data as at 4-Dec-07梧桐树下整理Why trading values can differ from DCFSome important points to remember when calculating trading multiplesThe choice of the peer group is crucialNeed to understand in detail the industry segments that competitors operate in Must identify and explain significant differences in multiples across the peer group We always calculate the numbers ourselvesEBIT and other figures shown in annual reports and sources such as equity research reportsare often inconsistent with J.P. Morgan definitionsWe always normalise earnings measures by removing one-off distortions Deducting material profits on sale of assets Adding back abnormal lossesGenerally focus on forward-looking multiples We use median of forecast EBITDA, EBIT and NPATMean often skewed by outliers due to poor / outdated estimatesAs a general rule of thumb, multiples always run lowest to highest from EBITDA, EBIT and P/E Expected given use of depreciable equipment in typical business (EBITDA to EBIT multiple) Expected given most businesses generate a higher rate of capital return on capital employedthan the after-tax cost of debt (EBIT to P/E multiple)R O D U C T I O N T OV A L U A T I O N梧桐树下整理Transaction multiplesTrading multiples IntroductionDiscounted cash flow (“DCF”)Overview of the sessionR O D U C T I O N T O V A L U A T I O N梧桐树下整理Comparable deals analysis is usually problematicR O D U C T I O N T OV A L U A T I O N梧桐树下整理Why bother with comparable transactions?R O D U C T I O N T OV A L U A T I O N梧桐树下整理Sources used to locate comparable transactionsR O D U C T I O N T OV A L U A T I O N梧桐树下整理Coates National Hire10/02/2007 1,645 12.4x 11.2x NA PCH Group Ltd Cape Australia Pty Ltd 16/10/2007 $268.1 18.2 13.2 2.4x Concept Hire Ltd Cape Australia Pty Ltd11/09/2007 128.7 12.6 9.8 2.4 Prime Industrial Rentals Coates29/08/2007 39.75.0 4.5 1.1 United Rentals Inc Cerberus Capital Management23/07/2007 US$6,600.09.6 9.0 1.5 Allplant Coates 30/11/2006 72.4 NA 7.6 1.3 Hirequip NZ Ltd Nikko28/11/2006 189.1 12.6 10.2 2.1 Hirepool Ltd Next Capital1/07/2006 172.0 10.4 NA NA Allied Equipment Coates1/07/2005 135.7 NA 5.9 1.4 AH Plant Hire National Hire 21/10/2005 106.5 8.4 8.2 1.9 Sherrin Hire Pty Ltd Boom Logistics Ltd27/06/2005 130.0 7.2 NA 1.3 Allight Holdings Pty Ltd National Hire 1/11/2004 82.5 12.5 7.2 1.6 The Cat Rental Store WA National Hire 1/11/2004 46.9 12.7 6.2 1.0 Source: Coates Hire Scheme Booklet, Independent Experts ReportNote: NTOA is NTA + net debt –surplus assetsIndicative presentation of transaction compsC O V A L U A T I O N梧桐树下整理Anatomy of a takeover premiumR O D U C T I O N T O V A L U A T I O N 梧桐树下整理When can transaction values differ from DCF?RODUCTIONT OV ALU ATI ON梧桐树下整理Welcome to the team!RODUCTIONTOVALUATION梧桐树下整理。