PFD01 Model (1)
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危重症患者下肢深静脉血栓风险预测模型的构建及评价陈颖秦贤%,孙乔刘梅玉曲彦%摘要:目的建立危重症患者下肢深静脉血栓风险预测模型,并评价预测效能"方法选取重症医学科患者420例,分为建模组300例和验证组120例°应用Logistic回归分析筛选下肢深静脉血栓发生的独立危险因素,建立下肢深静脉血栓风险预测模型°应用Bootstrap法进行模型内部验证,利用验证组数据对模型进行外部验证°结果Logistic回归分析显示,血浆D-二聚体、机械通气、静脉血栓史、血管升压素和糖尿病是危重症患者发生下肢深静脉血栓的独立危险因素°建模组风险预测模型的曲线下面积为0.935,验证组曲线下面积为0.925°Hosmer-Lemeshow检验结果P=0.901°结论本研究建立的列线图预测效能较好,可操作性强,有利于下肢深静脉血栓早筛查、早诊断°关键词:危重症患者;下肢深静脉血栓;危险因素;风险预测模型;列线图;预测效能中图分类号:R472文献标识码:A DOI:10.3870/j.issn.1001-4152.2021.06.035Development and evaluation of a prediction model f or lower limb deep venous thrombosis in critically iil patients Chen Ying#Q z n Xian#Sun Qiao#Liu Meiyu#Qu Yan.Nursing School#Medical College of Qingdao University#Qingdao266000,China Abstract:Objective To develop a prediction model for lower limb deep venous thrombosis(DVT)in critically iil patients and to e-valuat8th8pr8dictiv8validity.Methods A total of420critica l y i l pati8nts w8r8divid8dintotwo parts!300cas8s for mod8l d8v8lopm8ntand120cas8sforv8rification.Logisticr8gr8ssionanalysiswasp8rform8dtoid8ntifyriskfactorsandformulat8pr8dic-tion model.Bootstrap method was used for internal validation of the model,and120cases for external validation of the model.Results Logistic regression analysis showed that plasma D-dimer,mechanical ventilation,venous thromboembolism history,vasopressor use and diabetes were independent risk factors for lower limb DVT in critically iil patients.The area under ROC curve was 0.935in internal validation and0.925in external validation.Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed P=0.901.Conclusion The nomogram established in this study for prediction of lower limb DVT in critically iil patient population has good predictive performance andstrongoperability#whi>his>ondu>ivetoearlys>reeninganddiagnosis.Key words:critically iil patient;lower limb deep vein thrombosis;risk factor;risk assessment model;nomogram;predic-tivevalidity进入21世纪,血栓性疾病占全球总死亡率的25%,包括静脉和动脉血栓(1)。
装备环境工程第20卷第6期·98·EQUIPMENT ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING2023年6月船舶撞击下10 MW单桩基础风机动力响应特性分析吴腾飞1,黄勇1,宋倩雯2,赵海盛2,李昕2(1.上海能源科技发展有限公司,上海 200032;2.大连理工大学 建设工程学部 工程抗震研究所,辽宁 大连 116024)摘要:目的探究风机在遭遇船舶撞击时的动力响应,以及不同工况下的失效模式。
方法采用 SACS 软件,建立DTU 10MW单桩基础风机的动力分析模型,并利用p-y曲线模拟桩土相互作用,计算不同撞击速度、撞击角度、风载方向作用下海上风机的动态响应,探究风机在停机工况和运行工况下的失效模式。
结果风机受风载作用时,最大机舱加速度和塔顶最大位移分别较无风载时增加了8.5%、68.1%。
以5 000 t撞击船为例,风机在停机状态下,撞击速度超过2.13 m/s时,风机面临因机舱故障而引发的失效;风机在运行状态下,撞击速度超过1.88 m/s时,风机面临因挠度超过最大允许值而引发的失效。
结论有、无风载时,机舱加速度响应的差异不明显,而有风载时的塔顶位移较无风载时增长明显。
根据风机在停机工况和运行工况下的失效模式,提出了相应的船舶撞击速度临界值。
关键词:海上风机;单桩基础;船舶撞击;动力响应;风载效应;有限元中图分类号:TM614 文献标识码:A 文章编号:1672-9242(2023)06-0098-10DOI:10.7643/ issn.1672-9242.2023.06.013Dynamic Responses Analysis of DTU 10 MW Monopile-supported OffshoreWind Turbine under Ship ImpactWU Teng-fei1, HUANG Yong1, SONG Qian-wen2, ZHAO Hai-sheng2, LI Xin2(1. Shanghai Energy Technology Development Co., Ltd., Shanghai 200032, China; 2. Institute of Earthquake Engineering,Faculty of Infrastructure Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Liaoning Dalian 116024, China)ABSTRACT: The work aims to investigate the dynamic responses of offshore wind turbine impacted by a ship and the failure modes under different operating conditions. SACS software was used to establish a dynamic analysis model of the DTU 10 MW monopole-supported offshore wind turbine and p-y curve was adopted to simulate the pile-soil interaction. The dynamic re-收稿日期:2022–08–17;修订日期:2022–09–15Received:2022-08-17;Revised:2022-09-15基金项目:国家电力投资集团有限公司B类科研项目(KYTC2021FD01)Fund:Class B Research Project for State Power Investment Corporation (KYTC2021FD01).作者简介:吴腾飞(1987—),男,工程师,主要研究方向为海上风电。