A case study.ppt

Case Study: Tesla MotorsContinue Creating Self-driving cars or not?Sayidana Brannan-Douglas | Hamza Mahmood | Bowen ZhengHigh Level Overview of the ProblemMain Sources of concern, % of respondents* * Based on responses by car buyers in China, Germany, Japan and S. Korea (n = 3500)●Increased humans trust and relianceon new systems.●Adaptive cruise control often fails tostop in the case of stationary objects.● 3 out of 6 fatal accidents linked toautopilot feature were associated withTesla’s car.●Tesla’s in-house technology is not thesafest compared to its competitorsSub-Problems of Problems To Address●Safety●Socio-Ethical●FinancialSafetyChallengesLack of LiDAR systemFlaw in Sensor LayoutSub-optimal Performance of Car ComputerLack of Sensor: LiDAR●Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR)scanning is the state-of-the-art insurveying technology.●More advanced than the sonar andradar.●Instead of using sound or radio wavesto scan its environment, LiDAR utilizes laser light pulses.Lack of Sensor: LiDAR●Competing companies are usingLiDAR, even LiDAR matrix for moreaccurate mapping and ranging. Except Tesla…●Major Disadvantages:○Super expensive ($75k per unit)○Redesign and re-write theprogram of Autopilot software.Blind zones Increase the potentialpossibility of crash due to not detect or detect too late.Flaw of sensors: LayoutShort of Car computer: under-performance●Currently using:○Nvidia Drive PX2 Platform○8000 Gflops○200 Watts●Only 1 front camera is workingnow.●PX2 does not have enoughcomputation power to handle allthe cameras and sensors.●More powerful chip is available.Kman Auto on YouTube https://youtu.be/Pm1S49THsH4Possible Solutions●Put LiDAR on Tesla●Change the layout●Find a better Car ComputerJudging criterias●Cost : cost increase per car●Time of completion : month(s)●Effectiveness : “little to none”, “good”, and “perfect”.●No design change. Supply chain change cost will be even out with the lower priceper chipset.●Similar architecture, similar hardware.●Make more sensors active, but they are still just sonar and camera.Decision Analysis LiDAR Rearrange sensors Better ECUCost (per car)Time ofdevelopment Effectiveness 75000+100036 months Perfect ●LiDAR is very expensive●Tesla does not have program experience with LiDAR before, estimate progressmight be slow●Given the other companies using LiDAR now, the result is pretty good.150024 months Little to none 024 monthsGood●Even-swap method. Target: $cost●Average per car per month cost = $6277.42●“little to none” = -$10000; “Good” = -$30000; “Perfect” = -$50000.Decision AnalysisLiDAR Better ECUCost (per car)251987.12120658.08●The car computer alternative is our team’s choice to furtherimprove the Autopilot safety.Socio-EthicalChallenges Self-driving cars are not 100% safe given there havebeen a total of 38 dangerous incidents so farTesting results are not made public knowledge. Thiscauses trust issues between people and the companyRobots and self-driving machines are going to drivepeople out of employment.Trolley Problem A Big Challenge for ethicists in thefield of robotics and AIHit 4 TeenagersHit a Nobel Prizewinner Decision??Socio-Ethical Goals●Prioritize Safety of human life●Establish trust of consumers by pushing for full transparency of essential data betweencompanies and potential car buyers.●Create new opportunities for blue-collar workers (specifically taxi/truck drivers)Solution 1: Introduce Safe Shutdown Mode●To address the trolley problem, we recommend adding a safe shutdownmode in the critical, life threatening situations.●No loss of life or damage involved●Hard problem!Such cases are unpredictable and hard to anticipate.Requires sophisticated Machine Learning algorithms.●Progress so far: Tesla’s Model 3Stoppage50 MPH28 MPH NowSolution 2: Share Knowledge with Community●Dealing with the transparency and trust problem. People who areinterested in purchasing cars are unaware about the black-boxsurrounding the self-driving car.●IIHS and New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) published Tesla’s reportof successfully passing the exam, earning 5 star rating for safety.●This builds the necessary trust to potentially buy the car.●Idea: Tesla can provide glimpse inside the ‘Autopilot’ feature to achieveacceptance. (Classified detail, so tricky business)Solution 3: Create Opportunities for Drivers●Drivers run the risk of unemployment due to technological advancement ●Automation is causing drivers to accept low wage jobs●Social reforms required to keep blue-collared workers in the workforce●Raise awareness and teach softskills to people so they can at least do clerical work3.5M Truck Drivers 340K Taxi Drivers 660K Bus DriversJobs Gained!Mckinsey’s latest report estimatesthat robots in the workplace couldcreate nearly double the jobs.The World Economic Forum generated a range ofestimates for job creation in the period up to 2022.“133 million new roles may emerge that aremore adapted to the new division of laborbetween humans, machines, and Algorithms.”SMARTER Method Using ROC Weights Rank of WeightRank Order CentroidWeightsPolicy Alternative 161.1Raise Awareness227.8Share results to public 311.1Safe ShutdownPolicy Goals Cost Associated ($/yr) Safe Shutdown Mode$15,000/carEstablishing Trust$800,000Create New Opportunities$2,500,000WeightsPrioritize Safety Establish Trust New Opportunities Raise Awareness 61.1324Share results to public 27.8451Safe Shutdown 11.1513Aggregate Score 100 4.11 2.72 3.06SMARTER MethodUsing ROC WeightsFinancialChallenges Lack of time against diligent competitors who are alsotrying to be the first to release autonomous carsBudget constraints for continuously investing in such anexpensive endeavor with extremely high estimates forthe cost of hardware and software car packageNegatively impacting the financial revenue of AmericancitiesChallenge 1: Lack of time against diligent competitors●Diligent competitors also trying to be the first to release autonomous cars many ofwhom do not also manage distributing standard cars on a regular basis.●Heavy money investment for tools and personnel required to remain at the top of thecompetition●Time constraints often means hiring additional people or paying existing personnel moremoney to solve the problem fasterChallenge 2: Budget Constraints●Continuously investing in such an expensive endeavor with extremely high estimates forthe cost of hardware and software car package●Tesla’s Market Cap is $41.7-66.1 Billion●Current estimates for a self-driving hardware and software car package: $70,000 to$150,000●Tesla’s Quarter 2 2018 earnings report revealed a loss of over $717.5 million but Quarter3 earnings released on October 24th reports a $311.5 million profitChallenge 3: Negatively impacting the financial revenue of American cities●For many American cities, 15-50% of their revenue comes from cars,○Gas taxes, vehicle registration fees, traffic tickets, and parking revenue●Driverless car’s software will ensure its is not parked in an illegal spot or has expiredregistration●It would be in Tesla’s interest to create driverless cars that will aid city residents whilealso not causing tremendous city revenue deficits.Criteria and goals used to judge the solutionsvery large financial investment -as a business profit has to be asignificant concern -weighed heaviest International high profile company with popular CEO -significantpart of appeal -weighed second heaviest Ensures that all the options are possible to implement -weighedthird heaviest 3. FEASIBILITY1. COST2. IMAGEProposed Solutions●Delay production until their revenue increases again○Trending in the Right direction: Quarter 3 earnings: $311.5 million profit○Postponing means necessary money for manufacture main cars, autonomous cars, and any unexpected occurrences.○Cost: positive; Image: neutral; Feasibility: positive●Seek additional financial investment○Current investors top 10 investors are entrepreneurs and investment companies invest billions○Cost: positive; Image: positive; Feasibility: neutral●Halt production completely○No longer in the race to becoming the first to release the self-driving car○Significantly decreases financial burden○Cost: neutral; Image: negative; Feasibility: neutralGoal Alternative MatrixEven SwapsDelay production until their revenue increases again Seek additional financial investmentsHalt production completely Cost Image FeasibilityScore +/+++//-/150162.5Swap ratio:Cost: “+” = 100“/” = 50 “-” = 0Image:“+” = 50“/” = 25“-” = 0Feasibility:“+” = 25“/” = 12.5“-” = 010025251005012.550012.5Recommendations●Seek a more efficient Car computer chipset●Prioritize safety with full transparency of essential data betweencompanies and potential car buyers●Seek additional financial investment a specific autonomous carfrom those at a similar status of their current investorsThank You Questions?。