九 07年美国次贷危机（American subprime mortgage crisis innine and 07）07 U.S. subprime mortgage crisis 2008-05-19 17:38Subprime mortgage crisis in 07 yearsFirst, the definition of subprime mortgage crisis in the United StatesThe subprime mortgage crisis in the United States refers to the financial market crisis caused by the insolvency of the debtor in the real estate market. It refers to a storm that happened in the United States due to the bankruptcy of the subprime mortgage institutions, the closure of the investment fund and the violent volatility of the stock market. It has led to a looming shortage of liquidity in the world's major financial markets. The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States began to emerge gradually in the spring of 2006. August 2007 swept the world's major financial markets such as the United States, the European Union and japan. The subprime mortgage loan is relative to the mortgage loan with better credit condition. Through the form of mortgage, to low-income, no or lack of sufficient repayment ability to prove, or other heavy debt, credit conditions more "second" housing buyers loans. The mortgage loan of American real estate market can be divided into 3 levels: high quality loan market, "ALT-A" loan market and secondary loan market. High quality loan market faces high credit level, reasonable debt burden and little risk, and the mortgage interest rate is relatively low. Secondary market refers to the low credit score, lack of proof of income, heavydebt of customers, such as the low income class and new immigrants in the United states. The "ALT-A" loan market is a gray area between the two, refers to the credit record is good, but lack or no fixed income, deposits, assets and other legitimate documents of the client. Subprime markets and ALT-A lending markets are high-risk markets, mortgage rates are higher than high-quality loans, subprime lending crisis is the risk caused by this part of the market.Two, the causes of the subprime mortgage crisis:The direct cause of the U.S. subprime mortgage market turmoil is the rising interest rates in the United States and the continued cooling of the housing market. Subprime mortgages are loans provided by some lending institutions to borrowers with poor credit and low income.Interest increases, resulting in increased repayment pressure, many users who have bad credit feel the pressure of repayment, the possibility of default, the impact of the recovery of bank loans caused crisis.The US subprime mortgage market usually adopts the fixed interest rate and floating interest rate combination of repayment, namely: property buyers in the purchase in the first few years of fixed rate loans, followed by floating rate loans.In the 5 years before 2006, the U.S. subprime mortgage market grew rapidly due to the continued prosperity of the US housing market and the low level of interest rates in the United States in the past few years.With the cooling of the housing market in the United States, especially the short-term interest rate, the repayment interest rate of the subprime mortgage loans has also risen sharply, and the repayment burden of the buyers has been greatly aggravated. At the same time, the continued cooling of the housing market also makes it difficult for homebuyers to sell their homes or refinance through mortgage housing. This situation directly leads to a large number of subprime mortgage borrowers can not repay the loan on time, and then lead to the "subprime mortgage crisis"".Three, the impact of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis:1, the impact of subprime mortgage crisis on the United states:How broad will the impact of the sub prime crisis in the United States be? This is the current world economic and financial circles pay close attention to the problem.From its direct influence:First of all, the impact is a large number of low-income buyers. Unable to repay their loans, they will face the difficult situation of housing being repossessed by banks.Secondly, more secondary mortgage institutions will be forced to apply for bankruptcy protection because they can not accept loans and suffer serious losses.Finally, because many US and European investment funds havebought a large amount of securities derived from subprime mortgages, they will also suffer heavy losses.This crisis has undoubtedly brought a lot of enlightenment to the domestic financial industry. In the financial innovation, mortgage market development and financial supervision, etc. - since the outbreak of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis,No matter from the global capital market fluctuations or changes in the United States in the real economy, the loan is not to be underestimated in the United States and worldwide. For China, this storm has sounded the alarm for us to be prepared.The brunt of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States is the banking sector, and the importance of the risks hidden behind the housing mortgage loan is a problem that should be paid close attention to by the commercial banks in china. In the real estate market overall rising period, housing mortgage loans are high-quality assets of commercial bank loans, a relatively high rate of return, the default rate is low, once the default can also get compensation through the auction of the mortgaged real estate. At present, the real estate mortgage loan occupies a large proportion in the assets of China's commercial banks, and it is also one of the main sources of loan income. According to the new Basel Capital Accord, commercial banks have lower provision for the risk of real estate mortgage loans. However, once the real estate market prices and mortgage rates rising at the same time, property buyers repayment default rate will rise sharply, the total amount of principal and interest after the auction may be lower than the value ofreal estate mortgage principal or, this will lead to a significant increase in the ratio of bad debts of commercial banks, the impact on the profitability of commercial banks and capital adequacy the rate of. However, the real estate market in the near future China possibility of falling prices is unlikely, but in the long term bank mortgage loans risk should not be ignored, must implement strict loan conditions and loan approval system in the present stage.In fact, the source of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States is that the U.S. real estate financial institutions relaxed the loan conditions in the market boom period, and launched the former tight loan products. The commercial bank China should pay full attention to the lessons from the crisis, the first should strictly ensure Shoufu policy implementation, increase the ratio of loans Shoufu, eliminate zero Shoufu phenomenon; second should take strict pre loan credit audit, avoid false mortgage phenomenon.Before the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis, the U.S. economy has been running on the platform with high growth rate, low inflation rate and low unemployment rate for more than 5 years, and the topic of "high fever" in the US housing market has lasted for several years. There is a certain similarity between the economic picture of China and the United States before the housing market cools.The biggest warning of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States is that we should be vigilant against the impact of macroeconomic regulation and control policies to deal with the economic cycle on a particular market. The root cause ofthe U.S. subprime mortgage crisis is the Fed's interest rate hike leading to the decline of the real estate market. The current Chinese facing accelerating inflation situation, if the central bank in order to curb inflationary pressures and take a substantial measures to improve the RMB loan interest rate, then it should be wary of two aspects: the first is the tightening of lending impact on real estate development enterprises, which may cause developers funding fracture; second is to improve the effect of repayment pressure on the mortgage application the possible mortgage default rates rise. The impact of these two areas will eventually converge to the commercial bank system, resulting in non-performing loans of commercial banks as collateral rates rise, real estate value decline, and ultimately affect the profitability of commercial banks and even survival ability.People need to understand the differences between China and the United States in the economic cycle and the housing market cycle. The United States is a country with a long history of market economy under the global system. It has a strong cyclical nature and is now in the late stage of the prosperity of the current economic cycle.China has not yet experienced a complete economic cycle, even from the reform and opening up to now only 30 years of history, from 1992 and 1993 put forward the market economy to now is only 15 years of history. At this stage, the key word of China's economy is the imbalance between supply and demand, and the demand for fixed investment is large. This is different from the US economy, which focuses on the cycle of nearly 10 years; in addition, the cycles of the housing market in China and theUnited States are different. After the implementation of housing reform in China, the end of the housing market for many years, the demand soared. Although China's housing market is also driven by speculative factors,But large demand and limited supply are the most important reasons for higher housing prices. And for the Chinese housing market, the government has room for regulation.The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States also gives enlightenment to China's Macro-economic Control. There are three main aspects:First, it is necessary to bring asset prices into the monitoring object of the central bank when implementing monetary policy. Because once asset prices affect aggregate demand or aggregate supply through wealth effects or other channels, it will have an impact on inflation. Even if the central bank carrying out the inflation targeting system, it is necessary to take the fluctuation of asset prices as an important reference for the formulation of monetary policy;Second, macroeconomic regulation and control must be taken into account the negative impact of regulatory policy. For example, when the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, the real estate market may not bear enough pressure;Third, the government should not easily provide relief for the crisis. The crisis is a punishment for blind investment and blind diversification. If the government provides relief to such behavior, it will lead to moral hazard. The Central Bankof the developed countries joined the market in capital injection, which may lead to the next bubble.The impact of American subprime mortgage crisis on China in 2 and 07 years:If you add a lot of mortgage loans, the fluctuations in real estate prices have affected half of the bank's credit asset security.The scale of China's real estate loans has developed rapidly in recent years, and has a great impact on the profitability and asset security of the banking industry. According to the Shanghai Banking Bureau released February 2008 "the 2007 Shanghai real estate credit operation report" said that as of 2007 12 at the end of the month, the Chinese funded commercial bank real estate loans 513 billion 762 million yuan, an increase of 45 billion 288 million yuan over the beginning of this year, an increase of 6 billion 328 million yuan, the balance of real estate loans grew 10.58%. In 2007, 27.5% of the incremental loans from Chinese commercial banks in Shanghai were invested in real estate. By the end of 12 last year, the proportion of commercial banks in China's real estate loans accounted for 32.2% of the loans. If you add a lot of mortgage loans, the fluctuations in real estate prices have affected half of the bank's credit asset security. Continue to strengthen in the real estate market volatility and macroeconomic regulation and control at the same time, more correlation between real estate credit operation and the market closely, both the bank and the real estate development enterprises, or mortgage borrowers, are facing the pressure and the risk caused by pricefluctuations. In view of this situation, Shanghai banking regulatory bureau said, will strengthen macro regulation, gather attention credit resources to the real estate industry trends, timely prompt banks pay attention to the potential of the system of credit risk, develop and implement reasonable and scientific credit policy, dispersion, control and management of real estate credit risk.Comparing China's real estate market with the American subprime mortgage market, the two are very different. The most important thing is that mortgage lenders generally apply directly to banks for loans, without sophisticated derivatives. At the same time, the real estate Shoufu in 20%, policy is not allowed to issue zero down payment loans. However, we should also see the risks of China's housing mortgage loan.First, the lower proportion of the loan down payment and false credit, there are a lot of speculative lending. In the real estate "New Deal" before the implementation of China's real estate loans down payment ratio of 20%. But in actual operation, there are also false operations. According to the report, in 2004, Shanghai had had a loan of 78 million yuan, the purchase of 128 houses of major violations of the loan behavior, is through the way of false credit into.Two is the ability to pay loans increased continuously. In accordance with the CBRC guidelines for individual housing mortgage loans, the amount of personal monthly mortgage repayment shall not exceed 50% of the monthly disposable income of individual families. But in fact, domestic residents and housing investors in dealing with housing mortgage loans, manypeople can not meet this basic standard. Some people from the unit or find someone out of random wage income certificate. Bank credit personnel and real estate sales personnel to improve housing sales and loan performance,Even explicitly tell lenders to lend as soon as they can prove it. With false income proof, wage proof and other false documents to the bank mortgage loans, undoubtedly buried huge potential risks.Three is the rapid growth of the loan interest rate, leading to part of the debtor loss of payment capacity. In recent years, the central bank has raised benchmark interest rates several times. October 29, 2004 increased from 5.31% to 5.58%; in April 28, 2006, the benchmark interest rate for financial institutions increased by 0.27 percentage points to 5.85% per year. After 10 consecutive times up, the current one-year benchmark loan interest rate has increased to 7.47%, which is poor credit, repayment ability is not strong lenders, is undoubtedly enormous pressure.Four, house prices are falling after soaring. Statistics show that housing prices in big cities have risen by about 20% in recent years. For specific projects, it rose 50% to 100% or more. The rapid rise in house prices has stimulated buyers' enthusiasm for buying, and real estate has become a way to obtain huge wealth, so that many people with low debt paying ability are involved in the purchase team. When house prices fall, housing market liquidity decreases, loan interest rates rise sharply, it is bound to increase the debt pressure of high priced buyers, so that bank credit faces huge risk of default.The subprime mortgage business in the United States itself is a good thing, and its starting point is to provide loans to people with lower credit ratings or lower incomes, so that they can realize their own dream of owning their own housing. In 1994 ~2006, more than 9 million American families bought new homes, of which about 20% of families took advantage of subprime loans. However, in this process, some negative factors gradually emerge, which eventually led to the outbreak of the crisis.One is excessive securitization. Almost parallel to the subprime lending business is the securitization of American economies, such as the conversion of some obscure debt into securities and then selling them to investors. In other words, any risk can be transformed into securities. So the subprime lending institutions are not idle. They convert their subprime loans to more than six hundred billion dollars into securities and sell them to investors in various countries. So, the banks with investment experience don't see the high risk? The subprime lenders to keep a lot of credit rating agencies, which can easily get the highest credit rating to "AAA", "AAA" certificate of disaster caused by flooding water banks lost sensitivity to risk.Second, inflation. With this piece of "cake" bigger, because rich people have more and more paper assets, and wantonly squandered; the poor are due to see your house every day in appreciation, began to buy usually reluctant to buy things. Finally, the Fed had to raise interest rates to suppress inflation. But after interest rates rise, the poor people who have already been short of money have become unable to affordloans, which has led to a rapid rise in default rates in the subprime mortgage market. So far, the U.S. economy has fallen into a very low liquidity state. With economic development at a low pace, it's harder for poor people to pay off those mountain loans.What can we learn from the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States? Some people may say that we can't learn anything, because China has no subprime market. But take a closer look, and we'll find that there's something like the subprime mortgage in China's economy, and if we don't pay attention to it, the Chinese economy is in a vicious spiral.A typical example is the financial innovation project of China's real estate. Many Chinese want to get wealth by investing in real estate, so it's a good thing for banks to help people realize that. Banks across the country have come up with ideas that attract people to borrow money to buy a house". For example, Shenzhen Bank launched the "Bi weekly for business in 2006, it is allowed to" biweekly "rather than the" month "as a unit of repayment. In this way, borrowers can not only shorten the repayment period, but also pay less interest,So, especially by the "real" welcome. For example, "revolving loan" business, which allows people to mortgage commercial housing to the bank and obtain a certain amount of credit. In this way, borrowers buy more real estate, you can get more loan amount, so more "real estate" sought after. With the help of these financial innovations, real estate prices in Shenzhen have been rising at an alarming rate last year. According to the national development and Reform Commission statistics,Shenzhen new commercial housing prices rose as high as 13.5%, of which more than 60% of the loan house buyers is not the demand for home, but investment demand. By the end of last year, Shenzhen bank mortgage scale has reached 70 billion yuan. Although there is no large-scale loan defaults, but the rising rate of inflation is likely to force the central bank to raise interest rates; interest rates continue to improve, and will lead to many "real users" can not afford to pay interest and breach of contract. At that time, in the absence of the subprime market in Shenzhen City, will not repeat the American sub-prime mortgage crisis, banks can not do real estate loans; will not leave much money to other industries; all economic activities and stagnant because of the lack of cash.Thankfully, in the second half of last year, the central government resolutely implemented the new mortgage policy, the purpose is to suppress the speculative demand of real estate, curb the rising trend of housing prices, and ensure China's financial security. However, the "New Deal" just launched soon, all the opposition began to appear, the purpose of these people is nothing more than hope that the "new home" once again become the "air conditioning", so that they can be at the end of the real estate in big money crazy. In fact, the steady development of China's economy is the greatest happiness of every Chinese. Why should we go against it?Four, how to guard against credit riskThe important implication of the subprime crisis for commercial banks is that ignoring risks in the economic growth stage will inevitably lead to the risk of economic slowdown, even theoutbreak of the crisis. When the economy fluctuates periodically, the loan quality of commercial banks will bear the bruntFirst, we should strengthen the analysis of macroeconomic operation, and pay close attention to the risks that may arise from the economic cycle fluctuations.Two, scientific design of credit products. One of the important reasons for the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States is that the financial institutions are trying to reduce lending standards in order to profit.Three, we should grasp the relationship between macroeconomic trends and specific products.Four, we should do well early warning, control scale and risk.Five, financial innovation should adhere to the principle of "prudent management".The world stock market crash (five, 2007, the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis)The subprime mortgage crisis is a kind of wind that happened in the United States, because of the bankruptcy of the subprime mortgage institutions, the closure of the investment fund and the violent volatility of the stock marketStorm. It has led to a looming shortage of liquidity in the world's major financial markets. The subprime mortgage crisisin the United States began to emerge in the spring of 2006Now. August 2007 swept the world's major financial markets such as the United States, the European Union and japan.With the cooling of the housing market in the United States, especially the short-term interest rate, the repayment interest rate of the subprime mortgage loans has also risen sharply, and the buyers have also paid more attention to itThe loan burden is aggravating. At the same time, the continued cooling of the housing market also makes it difficult for homebuyers to sell their homes or refinance through mortgage housing. suchThe situation directly leads to a large number of subprime mortgage borrowers can not repay the loan on time, and then lead to the "subprime mortgage crisis"".The direct cause of the U.S. subprime mortgage market turmoil is the rising interest rates in the United States and the continued cooling of the housing market.Subprime mortgages are loans provided by some lending institutions to borrowers with poor credit and low income.The American subprime mortgage market usually adopts the combination of fixed interest rate and floating interest rate, that is, the buyers will be in the first few years after buying the houseRepay the loan at a fixed rate, and then repay the loan at a floating rate.Interest increases, resulting in increased repayment pressure, many originally bad credit users feel the pressure of repayment,The possibility of default, the bank loansThe crisis of influence caused by the recovery of funds.The impact of subprime mortgage crisis in the United StatesFirst of all, the impact is a large number of low-income buyers. Unable to repay their loans, they will face a difficult housing recoveryNoodles。
