- 1、下载文档前请自行甄别文档内容的完整性,平台不提供额外的编辑、内容补充、找答案等附加服务。
- 2、"仅部分预览"的文档,不可在线预览部分如存在完整性等问题,可反馈申请退款(可完整预览的文档不适用该条件!)。
- 3、如文档侵犯您的权益,请联系客服反馈,我们会尽快为您处理(人工客服工作时间:9:00-18:30)。
14.4
Probability 0.05 0.25 0.40 0.25 0.05
Cash Flow $ –3,000 1,000 5,000 9,000 13,000
Van Horne and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer.
Summary of Proposal A
The standard deviation = SQRT (14,400,000) = $3,795
The expected cash flow = $5,000
Coefficient of Variation (CV) = $3,795 / $5,000 = 0.759
(CF1)(P1)
$ –150 250 2,000 2,250 650 $5,000
14.7
(CF1 – CF1)2(P1)
(–3,000 – 5,000)2 (0.05) ( 1,000 – 5,000)2 (0.25) ( 5,000 – 5,000)2 (0.40) ( 9,000 – 5,000)2 (0.25) (13,000 – 5,000)2 (0.05)
Van Horne and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer.
Variance of Year 1 Cash Flows (Proposal A)
Van Horne and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer.
Variance of Year 1 Cash Flows (Proposal B)
• The Problem of Project Risk
• Total Project Risk
• Contribution to Total Firm Risk: Firm-Portfolio Approach
• Managerial Options
14.3 Van Horne and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer.
14.6
Van Horne and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer.
Variance of Year 1 Cash Flows (Proposal A)
(CF1)(P1) (CF1 – CF1)2*(P1)
$ –150 250 2,000 2,250 650 $5,000
14.8
3,200,000 4,000,000 0 4,000,000 3,200,000 14,400,000
Van Horne and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer.
(CF1)(P1) (CF1 – CF1)2(P1)
$ –50 500 2,000 2,000 550 $5,000
14.14
1,800,000 2,250,000 0 2,250,000 1,800,000 8,100,000
Van Horne and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer.
Chapter 14
Risk and Managerial (Real) Options in Capital Budgeting
14.1 Van Horne and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer.
(CF1)(P1) (CF1 – CF1)2(P1)
$ –50 500 2,000 2,000 550 $5,000
14.13
(–1,000 – 5,000)2 (0.05) ( 2,000 – 5,000)2 (0.25) ( 5,000 – 5,000)2 (0.40) ( 8,000 – 5,000)2 (0.25) (11,000 – 5,000)2 (0.05)
14.12
Van Horne and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer.
Variance of Year 1 Cash Flows (Proposal B)
Expected Value of Year 1 Cash Flows (Proposal A)
CF1
$ –3,000 1,000 5,000 9,000 13,000
P1
0.05 0.25 0.40 0.25 0.05 S=1.00
(CF1)(P1)
$ –150 250 2,000 2,250 650 CF1=$5,000
14.10
Probability 0.05 0.25 0.40 0.25 0.05
Cash Flow $ –1,000 2,000 5,000 8,000 11,000
Van Horne and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer.
An Illustration of Total Risk (Discrete Distribution)
ANNUAL CASH FLOWS: YEAR 1 PROPOSAL A
State Deep Recession Mild Recession Normal Minor Boom Major Boom
An Illustration of Total Risk (Discrete Distribution)
ANNUAL CASH FLOWS: YEAR 1 PROPOSAL B
State Deep Recession Mild Recession Normal Minor Boom Major Boom
Van Horne and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer.
Risk and Managerial Options in Capital Budgeting
Expected Value of Year 1 Cash Flows (Proposal B)
CF1
$ –1,000 2,000 5,000 8,000 11,000
P1
0.05 0.25 0.40 0.25 0.05 S=1.00
(CF1)(P1)
$ –50 500 2,000 2,000 550 CF1=$5,000
CV is a measure of relative risk and is the ratio of standard deviation to the mean of the distribution.
14.9 Van Horne and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer.
Probability Distribution of Year 1 Cash Flows
Proposal A
0.40
Probability
0.25
0.05
–3,000
14.5
1,000
5,000
9,000
13,000
Cash Flow ($)
Van Horne and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer.