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Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 9th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2014
4
The OTC Market Prior to 2008
很大程度上不受监管约束 金融机构常常是市场上流行产品的做市商,随时提供 买入价和卖出价 主协议通常都规定了双方如何处理交易 但也有一些交易被递交到中央交易对手 (CCPs). 中央 交易对手的作用如同交易所的清算中心
Is there an arbitrage opportunity?
16
期货交易所
CME Group (formed when Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade merged) NYSE Euronext (being acquired by bteh InterContinental Exchange) BM&F (Sao Paulo, Brazil) TIFFE (Tokyo) and many more (see list at end of book)
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 9th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2014
8
How Derivatives are Used
To hedge risks To speculate (take a view on the future direction of the market) To lock in an arbitrage profit To change the nature of a liability To change the nature of an investment without incurring the costs of selling one portfolio and buying another
1-month forward
3-month forward 6-month forward
1.5538
1.5533 1.5526
1.5543
1.5538 1.5532
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 9th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2014
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 9th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2014
5
Since 2008…
场外市场的监管加强了,其目的在于:
降低系统风险(业界事例1.2, page 3) 增加透明度
在美国和其他一些国家,场外标准衍生产品必须按互 换交易执行场所 (SEFs) 中所述的方式进行交易,其方 式与交易所交易类似 对于大多数标准衍生产品交易,世界上许多地区都要 求使用中央交易对手(CCPs) 所有交易都必须向登记中心提供备案
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 9th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2014 17
期货合约的例子
Agreement to:
Buy 100 oz. of gold @ US$1400/oz. in December Sell £62,500 @ 1.5500 US$/£ in March Sell 1,000 bbl. of oil @ US$90/bbl. in April
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 9th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2014
21
1. Oil: An Arbitrage Opportunity?
Suppose that:
The spot price of oil is US$95 The quoted 1-year futures price of oil is US$125 The 1-year US$ interest rate is 5% per annum The storage costs of oil are 2% per annum
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术语
同意在将来某一时刻以某一约定价格 买入资产的一方被称为多头 同意在将来某一时刻以同一约定价格 卖出资产的一方被称为空头
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 9th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2014
12
Example (page 6)
15Leabharlann 期货合约(page 7)在将来某一指定时刻以约定价格买入或卖出 某一产品的合约 与远期相似 不同的是,远期合约在场外交易而期货合约 在交易所交易
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 9th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2014
Is there an arbitrage opportunity?
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 9th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2014
19
2. Gold: Another Arbitrage Opportunity?
14
Profit from a Short Forward Position (K= delivery price=forward price at time
contract is entered into)
Profit
K
Price of Underlying at Maturity, ST
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 9th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2014
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 9th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2014
6
场外衍生产品市场和交易所交易市场的规模
(图 1.1, Page 4)
•来源:国际清算银行。图表显示了场外市场交易的面值总和及同一时间段交易 所合约中的标的资产的总价值。
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 9th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2014 7
雷曼的破产(业界事例1.1)
2008年9月15日,雷曼兄弟向法庭提出破产保护,这是美 国历史上最大的一起破产案。 雷曼在场外衍生产品市场上非常活跃,但由于其运作大多 依赖短期债务,当市场对雷曼失去信心时,贷款人拒绝再 将贷款进行延期,因此造成了它的破产 雷曼的交易对手数量高达8000多个,交易数量在百万笔 以上。 在2007年,雷曼兄弟的杠杆比率高达31:1
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 9th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2014
2
为什么衍生产品如此重要
在当今的经济环境下,衍生产品在转移风险方面扮演 着关键角色 标的资产包括股票、汇率、利率、大宗商品、债务工 具、电力、保费、气候等等 很多金融交易都嵌入了衍生产品 在对项目进行分析与估值方面实物期权的方法已被广 泛采用
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远期价格
远期合约的远期价格是使得该合约价值为 零的交割价格。在签署远期合约协议的时 刻,远期价格和交割价格是相同的。 随着时间推移,远期价格有可能改变,而 交割价格保持不变。
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 9th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2014
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 9th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2014
20
黄金的远期价格(ignores the gold lease rate)
如果黄金的即期价格为S ,一份期限为T年的远 期合约的远期价格为F,那么 F = S (1+r )T 这里r 为1年期无风险利率 (本国货币) 。 在这个例子中, S = 1400,T = 1,r =0.05 那么, F = 1400(1+0.05) = 1470
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 9th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2014
18
1. Gold: An Arbitrage Opportunity?
Suppose that:
The spot price of gold is US$1,400 The 1-year forward price of gold is US$1,500 The 1-year US$ interest rate is 5% per annum
Chapter 1
引言
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 9th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2014
1
What is a Derivative?
A derivative is an instrument whose value depends on, or is derived from, the value of another asset. Examples: futures, forwards, swaps, options, exotics…