投资学讲义.doc

Investment InstitutionsWhat are Investment institutions? Contractual savings institutions -Insurance companies -Pension fundsInvestment intermediaries -Mutual funds / unit trusts -Investment trusts -Hedge funds-Private equity company❝Investment institution is a financial intermediary (company) engaged in investing in, and managing, a portfolio of securities on behalf of their shareholders. ❝Indirect investment in capital/money marketinstruments via an investment institution is the most popular way for individuals to invest surplus funds ❝In the UK, 50 –60% of equities and bonds are held and managed by investment institutions ❝Benefits: diversified portfolio, professional managements❝All investment companies charge a fee (annual expense ratio) to shareholders to pay for theoperating costs and the management fee.❝Depositary institutions◦Intermediaries with a significant proportion of their funds derived from customer deposits, e.g. Building societies. Short-term liabilities.❝Contractual savings institutions◦Typically acquire funds at periodic intervals on a contractual basis❝Investment intermediaries◦Collective investment funds, Finance companies,Investment banks, Securities firms❝Two major groups: Insurance companies and Pension funds ❝Long-term liabilities❝Liquidity of their assets is less important than for depositary institutions –they can predict with greater accuracy their future payments due to customers❝Hence, they can invest a greater proportion of funds in long-term securities (bonds,equities)❝Primary objective is to protect policyholders (firms and individuals) from adverse events ❝Receive premiums from policyholders and promise compensation if specified events occur❝Two main segments: general insurance and life insurance❝Protection against personal injury and liabilities such as accidents, theft and fire❝Usually over a fixed time period e.g. 1 year ❝Claims usually made soon after the event so liabilities are mostly short term❝Hence they hold a greater proportion of liquid assets than life insurers. Holding financial assets might be viewed as a byproduct of the business.❝Some authors (e.g. B&T) do not view this category as an investment intermediary❝Protects the policyholder in the event of death, illness or retirement; hence long-term liabilities❝Term assurance, Whole-of-life policy, Endowment policy, Annuities❝Term assurance: provides insurance cover, for specifiedperiod, against the risk of death. If the insured survivesthe specified period then no payment is made.❝Whole-of-life policy pays a capital sum on the death ofthe person assured, whenever that event occurs.❝Endowment policy pays a capital sum at the end ofsome specified term or earlier if the assured dies withinthe term.-The premium for Whole-of-life and endowment policieswill be higher than for term assurance.❝Annuities: A policyholder pay an initial lump sumwhich used by the insurance company to providean agreed income until death.-The insurance company immediately creates a fund❝Risk: certain sums are guaranteed to be paid in thefuture and these sums exceed the value of thepremiums over the life of the contract.❝Match the term structure of its assets and liabilities❝Invest in long-term assets e.g. bonds, equities andmortgages.❝Provide retirement income (in the form ofannuities) to employees covered by a pension plan❝Personal scheme and public (state) scheme❝Funded scheme and unfunded (pay-as-you-go)scheme❝Funded scheme: Receive contributions fromemployers and/or employees and invest thesefunds in assets, including equities and bonds.Returns from the investment are used to paybenefits to members of the scheme.❝Two main types of funded scheme: defined benefit(DB) and defined contribution (DC)❝DB: the sponsor agrees to pay members ofthe scheme a pension equal to apredetermined percentage of their finalsalary (average salary), subject to themember‟s years of service❝DC: the return on the investmentsdetermines pension benefits❝Occupational schemes where the sponsor isthe employer have historically been DB,while private pensions are DC❝Risk: benefits to be paid are not known with certainty;inflation complications as it increases the benefits to bepaid by fund.❝Benefit from tax deferral: in the UK, contributions arenot taxable, pensioner pays income tax❝Pension fund trustees will determine the overallinvestment strategy❝They will often decide what proportion of assets to beheld in different asset classes❝Asset mix will be influenced by the maturity of the fund❝Long-term liabilities hence long-term assets❝Index-linked bonds, Equities❝Investment companies are classified, depending on whether their own capitalisation (number of shares outstanding) is constantly changing or fixed:-Open-end : capitalisation constantly changing; new investors buy additional shares from the company and some existing shareholders sell their shares back to the company.-Closed-end : fixed capitalization; share traded onexchange.open-ended❝Mutual funds / unit trusts❝Open-ended investment companies OEICsClosed ended❝Investment trusts ❝Hedge funds❝Private equity company❝Pool resources from many individuals andcompanies and invest these in a range of assets ❝Provide opportunities for small investors to investin a diversified fund at low cost❝Take advantage of lower transaction costs in trading larger blocks of securities❝Trusts in the legal sense; controlled and monitored by trustees; who act as guardian of the assets on behalf of the beneficial owners ❝Investment decisions❝When an investor buys a stake in a unit trust, he/she purchases a new unit in the fund (unless matched with a seller by the fund manager)❝Open-ended fund where the size of the fund can varyaccording to the number of contributors to the fund ❝Price of each unit reflects current value of the fund divided by the number of outstanding units❝All sales and purchases of units are made with the trust manager.❝Do not trade on stock exchange.❝Dual pricing structure: offer price (investors buy units)and bid price (investors sell units back to the trust)❝Annual management fee (usually 0.5 -1% of the funds under management), plus the bid-offer spread on buying and selling units❝Limited in the amount that can be invested in any single security❝Total return for a mutual fund includes reinvestment dividends and capital gain.❝A cumulative total return measures the actual performance over 3, 5 or 10 years.❝In Jan 2009, 8,000 domestic mutual funds withassets of $9.4 trillion in the US.❝Short-term funds:-Money market mutual funds ❝Long-term funds: -Capital market funds;-Equity (stock) funds, Bond funds or Hybrid(balanced) funds (hold combination of stocks and bonds)-Index funds: mutual funds holding an managed portfolio of bonds or stocks designed to match particular market index, such as S&P 500. Has low expenses ratio.❝OEICs operate similarly to a unit trust in the sense that they are open-ended❝But an OEIC has a company structure and can be listed on the stock exchange ❝Shares will reflect the value of the fund ❝Shares will have a single price (rather than the separate buying and selling prices indicated for unit trusts)❝Companies whose business is the investment of funds in financial assets.❝A closed-end fund, only able to raise more funds through rights issue shares or borrowing (bonds) ❝Not a trust in the legal sense; limited liability company with listed shares (traded in stock market).❝Investors can purchase ordinary shares of the ITC ❝A portfolio, managed by ITC‟s board of directors who determine the investment strategy❝Not faced with outflow of funds, so investment strategy does not depend on maintaining cash flows to meet future liabilities❝The existence of borrowed funds in the capitalstructure implies a …gearing effect‟ on the value of the ITC shares❝Net asset value (NAV) per share is the value of assetsless debt divided by number of issued shares-E.g. ITC capital structure: £8m in equities (4m shares) + £2m debt. Thus the NAV per share = £2-If the value of ITC asset portfolio were to doubled to £20m, then the NAV per would increase to £4.5 (£18m/4m shares)-A 100% in the value of assets held has led to an increase in the NAV per share of 125%❝The gearing effect is of benefit to shareholders in a rising stock market.❝The hedge funds are largely unregulated❝Reputation is as risky funds, shrouded by mystery and only accessible to the wealthy.❝According to IFSL, the number of hedge funds increased from 4,000 with $324bn of assets in 1999 to peak of 11,000 with $2,150bn in 2007, and then declined to 10,000 hedge funds and $1,500bn by the start of 2009. ❝There is no unique definition of hedge fund since it is an industry term rather than a legal term❝“Includes a multitude of skill -based investment strategies with a broad range of risk and returnobjectives. A common element is the use of investment and risk management skills to seek positive returns regardless of market direction.”❝A hedge fund is an actively managed investment fund ❝Seeks an attractive …absolute return‟, a return whether the market go up or down.❝Do not follow any benchmark, but rather just try to generate high returns (larger than ordinary available return) while managing risks, by exploiting various market opportunities❝Typical strategies include -Short selling,-Borrowing, Leverage -Use of derivatives❝Fees include a fixed fee and management fee e.g. 1-2% of assets plus 20-25% of upside performance.Hedge fundsMutual funds and pension fundsInvestment trusts FreedomLimitation on borrowing, short selling, and the use of derivatives May borrow Limitations on short selling, and the use of derivatives❝Typical investors◦Wealthy individuals ◦Pension funds◦Other hedge funds, creating …funds of hedge funds‟ –diversity in strategy and risk❝Returns and risk can vary a great deal among the different hedge fund strategies❝Market neutral (or relative value arbitrage) funds ◦Attempt to produce returns that have no or low correlation with e.g. equity markets◦Highly quantitative portfolio construction◦Concentrate on the relative value of individual shares, bonds, currencies ...◦Commonly apply arbitrage strategies-e.g. exploit mispricing between an underlying asset and a derivative instrument-Concentrate on the difference in performance of two given securities in homogenous universe. E.g. belief that BP will do better than X in oil firm; go long on BP and short on X.-Take position with convertible bonds❝Long/short funds-Generally invest in equity and bonds, taking directional bets on individual security or sector-Analyse individual companies and individual shares-Micro investors (look at individual/specific stocks)-Some may specialize in geographical sectors -Others may specialize in either small or large companies -E.g. 130/30-Timing is crucial-Stock-picking skill (short selling overpriced stocks and buying underpriced stocks)-Not automatically market neutral e.g. could havestrong positive correlation with equityGlobal (macro) asset funds-Look at stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities from a global point of view -Macro-investors (look at broad themes) -Have positive exposure to the market-A fund might go long in sectors they believe will provide good returns, and short on countries they believe will have negative returns❝Event driven funds-Looks to exploit special situations -Take over bids-Merger, Corporate restructuring❝A group of individuals set up a limited liabilitypartnership, might have a limited life of around 10 years.❝Make good returns by buying public companies or neglected subsidiaries at good price and turning them into more attractive business❝They will gear up with debt that a public company would not want to risk.❝Normally be turned into non-quoted company❝They get involved in the business, bringing their own expertise and give managers big incentives to improve the business❝They seek cut costs, squeeze suppliers and sell unwanted assets, sell and lease back property ❝Large amount of leverage involved❝They take their profit in a variety of ways:-Refloat the company-Sell the company to someone else in the same business -Refinancing❝The private equity market was boosted in the early 2000s.❝IFSL shows that the global private equity investment amounted to $176.6bn in 2000, this increased to $317.6bn in 2007, then hit by the credit crisis andfell to $189bn.❝In the UK, well-known firms that are or have been owned by private equity groups: Boots, Iceland, Debenhams, New Look, Kwik-Fit❝E.g. In Dec. 2003, a group of private equity firms-Texas Pacific, CVC and Merrill Lynch Global Private Equity-bough Debenhams for £1.7bn, of which £600m was their own capital.❝In two refinancing in 2004 and 2005, they reconstructed the balance sheet with new borrowings and paid themselves back £1.3bn(twice of their original capital) in about 18 months. ❝They refloated Debenhams in May 2006.Explain the different types of investment institution. Identify and analyse the factors that will influence the investment strategy applied by each type of institution.。

三、分析篇一、债券的投资价值分析(一)影响债券投资价值的因素1、影响债券投资价值的内部因素：期限、票面利率、提前赎回规定、税收待遇、流动性、信用级别。

2、影响债券投资价值的外部因素：基础利率、市场利率及其它因素。

(二)债券价值的计算公式Pn 为从现在开始n 个时期后的终值，P0为现值，r 为每期的利率，n 为时期数，M 为面值。

1、货币的终值和现值●终值是指今天的一笔投资在未来某个时点上的价值。

用复利计算： 用单利计算：●现值是将未来所获得的现金流量折现。

2、一次还本付息债券的定价公式●若按单利计息，并一次还本付息,但按单利贴现：（i 为每期利率，r 为必要收益率） ●若按单利计息，并一次还本付息,但按复利贴现: ●若按复利计息，并一次还本付息,但按复利贴现：3、附息债券的定价公式 ●一年付息一次，按复利贴现（C 为每年支付的利息）： ●一年付息一次，按单利贴现：（三）利率期限结构理论：（收益理论）对收益率曲线不同形状的解释，产生了三种主要的期限结构理论：预期理论和市场分割理论。

n p P r =n 0（1+）(1)1M i n P r n +⨯=+⨯(1)(1)n n Mi P r +=+预期理论：认为对未来短期利率的预期可能影响到对未来远期利率的预期。

根据是否承认还有其他因素的影响，可以进一步划分为完全预期理论、流动性偏好理论和集中偏好理论。

②流动性偏好理论：根据流动性偏好理论，不同期限的债券之间存在一定的替代性，这意味着一种债券的预期收益确实可以影响不同期限债券的收益。

但是不同期限的债券并非是完全可替代的，因为投资者对不同期限的债券具有不同的偏好。

远期利率除了包括预期信息之外，还包括了风险因素，它可能是对流动性的补偿。

影响短期债券被扣除补偿的因素包括：不同期限债券的可获得程度及投资者对流动性的偏好程度。

在债券定价中，流动性偏好导致了价格的差别。

这一理论假定，大多数投资者偏好持有短期证券。

为了吸引投资者持有期限较长的债券，必须向他们支付流动性补偿，而且流动性补偿随着时间的延长而增加，因此，实际观察到的收益率曲线总是要比预期假说所预计的高。

Investment InstitutionsWhat are Investment institutions? Contractual savings institutions -Insurance companies -Pension fundsInvestment intermediaries -Mutual funds / unit trusts -Investment trusts -Hedge funds-Private equity company❝Investment institution is a financial intermediary (company) engaged in investing in, and managing, a portfolio of securities on behalf of their shareholders. ❝Indirect investment in capital/money marketinstruments via an investment institution is the most popular way for individuals to invest surplus funds ❝In the UK, 50 –60% of equities and bonds are held and managed by investment institutions ❝Benefits: diversified portfolio, professional managements❝All investment companies charge a fee (annual expense ratio) to shareholders to pay for theoperating costs and the management fee.❝Depositary institutions◦Intermediaries with a significant proportion of their funds derived from customer deposits, e.g. Building societies. Short-term liabilities.❝Contractual savings institutions◦Typically acquire funds at periodic intervals on a contractual basis❝Investment intermediaries◦Collective investment funds, Finance companies,Investment banks, Securities firms❝Two major groups: Insurance companies and Pension funds ❝Long-term liabilities❝Liquidity of their assets is less important than for depositary institutions –they can predict with greater accuracy their future payments due to customers❝Hence, they can invest a greater proportion of funds in long-term securities (bonds,equities)❝Primary objective is to protect policyholders (firms and individuals) from adverse events ❝Receive premiums from policyholders and promise compensation if specified events occur❝Two main segments: general insurance and life insurance❝Protection against personal injury and liabilities such as accidents, theft and fire❝Usually over a fixed time period e.g. 1 year ❝Claims usually made soon after the event so liabilities are mostly short term❝Hence they hold a greater proportion of liquid assets than life insurers. Holding financial assets might be viewed as a byproduct of the business.❝Some authors (e.g. B&T) do not view this category as an investment intermediary❝Protects the policyholder in the event of death, illness or retirement; hence long-term liabilities❝Term assurance, Whole-of-life policy, Endowment policy, Annuities❝Term assurance: provides insurance cover, for specifiedperiod, against the risk of death. If the insured survivesthe specified period then no payment is made.❝Whole-of-life policy pays a capital sum on the death ofthe person assured, whenever that event occurs.❝Endowment policy pays a capital sum at the end ofsome specified term or earlier if the assured dies withinthe term.-The premium for Whole-of-life and endowment policieswill be higher than for term assurance.❝Annuities: A policyholder pay an initial lump sumwhich used by the insurance company to providean agreed income until death.-The insurance company immediately creates a fund❝Risk: certain sums are guaranteed to be paid in thefuture and these sums exceed the value of thepremiums over the life of the contract.❝Match the term structure of its assets and liabilities❝Invest in long-term assets e.g. bonds, equities andmortgages.❝Provide retirement income (in the form ofannuities) to employees covered by a pension plan❝Personal scheme and public (state) scheme❝Funded scheme and unfunded (pay-as-you-go)scheme❝Funded scheme: Receive contributions fromemployers and/or employees and invest thesefunds in assets, including equities and bonds.Returns from the investment are used to paybenefits to members of the scheme.❝Two main types of funded scheme: defined benefit(DB) and defined contribution (DC)❝DB: the sponsor agrees to pay members ofthe scheme a pension equal to apredetermined percentage of their finalsalary (average salary), subject to themember‟s years of service❝DC: the return on the investmentsdetermines pension benefits❝Occupational schemes where the sponsor isthe employer have historically been DB,while private pensions are DC❝Risk: benefits to be paid are not known with certainty;inflation complications as it increases the benefits to bepaid by fund.❝Benefit from tax deferral: in the UK, contributions arenot taxable, pensioner pays income tax❝Pension fund trustees will determine the overallinvestment strategy❝They will often decide what proportion of assets to beheld in different asset classes❝Asset mix will be influenced by the maturity of the fund❝Long-term liabilities hence long-term assets❝Index-linked bonds, Equities❝Investment companies are classified, depending on whether their own capitalisation (number of shares outstanding) is constantly changing or fixed:-Open-end : capitalisation constantly changing; new investors buy additional shares from the company and some existing shareholders sell their shares back to the company.-Closed-end : fixed capitalization; share traded onexchange.open-ended❝Mutual funds / unit trusts❝Open-ended investment companies OEICsClosed ended❝Investment trusts ❝Hedge funds❝Private equity company❝Pool resources from many individuals andcompanies and invest these in a range of assets ❝Provide opportunities for small investors to investin a diversified fund at low cost❝Take advantage of lower transaction costs in trading larger blocks of securities❝Trusts in the legal sense; controlled and monitored by trustees; who act as guardian of the assets on behalf of the beneficial owners ❝Investment decisions❝When an investor buys a stake in a unit trust, he/she purchases a new unit in the fund (unless matched with a seller by the fund manager)❝Open-ended fund where the size of the fund can varyaccording to the number of contributors to the fund ❝Price of each unit reflects current value of the fund divided by the number of outstanding units❝All sales and purchases of units are made with the trust manager.❝Do not trade on stock exchange.❝Dual pricing structure: offer price (investors buy units)and bid price (investors sell units back to the trust)❝Annual management fee (usually 0.5 -1% of the funds under management), plus the bid-offer spread on buying and selling units❝Limited in the amount that can be invested in any single security❝Total return for a mutual fund includes reinvestment dividends and capital gain.❝A cumulative total return measures the actual performance over 3, 5 or 10 years.❝In Jan 2009, 8,000 domestic mutual funds withassets of $9.4 trillion in the US.❝Short-term funds:-Money market mutual funds ❝Long-term funds: -Capital market funds;-Equity (stock) funds, Bond funds or Hybrid(balanced) funds (hold combination of stocks and bonds)-Index funds: mutual funds holding an managed portfolio of bonds or stocks designed to match particular market index, such as S&P 500. Has low expenses ratio.❝OEICs operate similarly to a unit trust in the sense that they are open-ended❝But an OEIC has a company structure and can be listed on the stock exchange ❝Shares will reflect the value of the fund ❝Shares will have a single price (rather than the separate buying and selling prices indicated for unit trusts)❝Companies whose business is the investment of funds in financial assets.❝A closed-end fund, only able to raise more funds through rights issue shares or borrowing (bonds) ❝Not a trust in the legal sense; limited liability company with listed shares (traded in stock market).❝Investors can purchase ordinary shares of the ITC ❝A portfolio, managed by ITC‟s board of directors who determine the investment strategy❝Not faced with outflow of funds, so investment strategy does not depend on maintaining cash flows to meet future liabilities❝The existence of borrowed funds in the capitalstructure implies a …gearing effect‟ on the value of the ITC shares❝Net asset value (NAV) per share is the value of assetsless debt divided by number of issued shares-E.g. ITC capital structure: £8m in equities (4m shares) + £2m debt. Thus the NAV per share = £2-If the value of ITC asset portfolio were to doubled to £20m, then the NAV per would increase to £4.5 (£18m/4m shares)-A 100% in the value of assets held has led to an increase in the NAV per share of 125%❝The gearing effect is of benefit to shareholders in a rising stock market.❝The hedge funds are largely unregulated❝Reputation is as risky funds, shrouded by mystery and only accessible to the wealthy.❝According to IFSL, the number of hedge funds increased from 4,000 with $324bn of assets in 1999 to peak of 11,000 with $2,150bn in 2007, and then declined to 10,000 hedge funds and $1,500bn by the start of 2009. ❝There is no unique definition of hedge fund since it is an industry term rather than a legal term❝“Includes a multitude of skill -based investment strategies with a broad range of risk and returnobjectives. A common element is the use of investment and risk management skills to seek positive returns regardless of market direction.”❝A hedge fund is an actively managed investment fund ❝Seeks an attractive …absolute return‟, a return whether the market go up or down.❝Do not follow any benchmark, but rather just try to generate high returns (larger than ordinary available return) while managing risks, by exploiting various market opportunities❝Typical strategies include -Short selling,-Borrowing, Leverage -Use of derivatives❝Fees include a fixed fee and management fee e.g. 1-2% of assets plus 20-25% of upside performance.Hedge fundsMutual funds and pension fundsInvestment trusts FreedomLimitation on borrowing, short selling, and the use of derivatives May borrow Limitations on short selling, and the use of derivatives❝Typical investors◦Wealthy individuals ◦Pension funds◦Other hedge funds, creating …funds of hedge funds‟ –diversity in strategy and risk❝Returns and risk can vary a great deal among the different hedge fund strategies❝Market neutral (or relative value arbitrage) funds ◦Attempt to produce returns that have no or low correlation with e.g. equity markets◦Highly quantitative portfolio construction◦Concentrate on the relative value of individual shares, bonds, currencies ...◦Commonly apply arbitrage strategies-e.g. exploit mispricing between an underlying asset and a derivative instrument-Concentrate on the difference in performance of two given securities in homogenous universe. E.g. belief that BP will do better than X in oil firm; go long on BP and short on X.-Take position with convertible bonds❝Long/short funds-Generally invest in equity and bonds, taking directional bets on individual security or sector-Analyse individual companies and individual shares-Micro investors (look at individual/specific stocks)-Some may specialize in geographical sectors -Others may specialize in either small or large companies -E.g. 130/30-Timing is crucial-Stock-picking skill (short selling overpriced stocks and buying underpriced stocks)-Not automatically market neutral e.g. could havestrong positive correlation with equityGlobal (macro) asset funds-Look at stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities from a global point of view -Macro-investors (look at broad themes) -Have positive exposure to the market-A fund might go long in sectors they believe will provide good returns, and short on countries they believe will have negative returns❝Event driven funds-Looks to exploit special situations -Take over bids-Merger, Corporate restructuring❝A group of individuals set up a limited liabilitypartnership, might have a limited life of around 10 years.❝Make good returns by buying public companies or neglected subsidiaries at good price and turning them into more attractive business❝They will gear up with debt that a public company would not want to risk.❝Normally be turned into non-quoted company❝They get involved in the business, bringing their own expertise and give managers big incentives to improve the business❝They seek cut costs, squeeze suppliers and sell unwanted assets, sell and lease back property ❝Large amount of leverage involved❝They take their profit in a variety of ways:-Refloat the company-Sell the company to someone else in the same business -Refinancing❝The private equity market was boosted in the early 2000s.❝IFSL shows that the global private equity investment amounted to $176.6bn in 2000, this increased to $317.6bn in 2007, then hit by the credit crisis andfell to $189bn.❝In the UK, well-known firms that are or have been owned by private equity groups: Boots, Iceland, Debenhams, New Look, Kwik-Fit❝E.g. In Dec. 2003, a group of private equity firms-Texas Pacific, CVC and Merrill Lynch Global Private Equity-bough Debenhams for £1.7bn, of which £600m was their own capital.❝In two refinancing in 2004 and 2005, they reconstructed the balance sheet with new borrowings and paid themselves back £1.3bn(twice of their original capital) in about 18 months. ❝They refloated Debenhams in May 2006.Explain the different types of investment institution. Identify and analyse the factors that will influence the investment strategy applied by each type of institution.。

投资学(现代投资理论)前言我们先考虑如下三个问题1Finance是什么？2Finance金融体系内容是什么？3投资学(现代投资理论)是什么？Finance，在中文中有这么几个意思：理财（对个人、家庭、企业、公司）、财务（企业或公司）、金融（投融资机构：基金公司，银行等）、财政（国家）等意思所以把Finance仅仅翻译成金融是不恰当的。

有三本著名的金融财务杂志(1)JFE(Journal of Financial Economics)(2)JF(Journal of Finance这是美国金融学会的)(3)RFS(Reviews of Financial Studies)有三个国际性的证书考试：(1) CFA(Chartered Financial Analyst特许金融分析师：是证券投资与管理界的一种职业资格称号，由美国“特许金融分析师学院”(ICFA)发起成立，每年在全球范围内举行资格考试。

CFA 协会主办的CFA 课程和考试被认为全球投资专业里最为严格的考试，在投资知识、专业标准及道德操守方面制定了全球准则。

CFA特许状持有人可以向其客户、雇主和同事表明他已经修读了一套严谨的专业课程，知识涵盖了广泛的投资领域，并且承诺遵守最高的职业道德准则。

因此，CFA特许状被投资业看成一个“黄金标准”，投资者也希望找到那些持有CFA特许状的专业人士，因为这一资格被认为是投资业界中具有专业技能和职业操守的承诺。

)要上万美元的考试费。

特许金融分析师 (CFA)报考条件：大四学生及以上。

取得资格所需时间(平均)：3-4 年。

取得资格所需费用（不含培训）：RMB18,000。

国际认可程度：高，全球投资领域通行证。

国内认可程度：高，是高端金融领域“王牌”认证，目前12000 名考生，800-1000 名持证人，2007 年考生增长57%。

薪酬水平：对投资行业薪酬状况的调查表明，雇主愿意提供高额奖金给拥有CFA特许资格认证的投资专业人士。

第18章权益估值模型•第一节估值与市场价格•第二节股利贴现模型•第三节市盈率•第四节自由现金流估值方法第一节 估值与市场价格一、比较估值1.公司的价值比率与行业平均水平相比较2.股价/销售收入这一比率对评估处于起步阶段的公司和行业很有用，因为他们通常还没有正的收益。

3.账面价值建立在历史成本之上，并不是真正的市场价值。

尽管这种情况不常见，但总有一些公司的市场价值小于其账面价值。

4.每股清算价值是股价“底线” 或最小值。

5.托宾q 值是市值与重置成本的比值。

二、内在价值与市场价格股票收益是由现金股利和资本利得或损失构成的。

期望收益率可能高于或低于基于股票风险的必要收益率。

[]1100()()Expected HPR= ()E D E P P E r P +-=• 资本资产定价模型可以用来估计必要收益率k:()f M f k r E r r β⎡⎤=+-⎣⎦ •如果股价定价是正确的，k 就等于期望收益率。

•市场对k 达成共识，则k 是市场资本化率。

•内在价值(IV) 是基于模型估计的真实价值。

•市场价格(MV) 是所有市场参与者达成共识的价格。

• 交易信号：IV > MV 购买 IV < MV 出售或卖空IV = MV 持有或公平的定价三、例子假设股票持有期1年，ABC股票预期每股红利E(D1)=4元，现价P0=48元，年底的预期价格E(P1)=52元，则投资者预期的持有期收益率为：E(r)={E(D1)+[E(P1)-P0]}/P0={4+[52-48]}/48=0.167或16.7%由CAPM模型，假定r f=6%，E(R M)-r f=5%， =1.2，则投资者对ABC股票的期望收益率为k=6%+1.2×5%=12%，这个收益率是投资者对具有相同风险投资所要求的收益率，即必要收益率。

由以上可知：预期收益率超出必要收益率4.7%，应增加更多的ABC股票判断股票是否被低估的另一方法是比较内在价值与市场价格：股票的每股内在价值（用V0表示）被定义为投资者从股票上所能得到的全部现金回报，包括红利和最终卖出股票的损益，是用正确反映了风险调整的利率k贴现所得的现值。

第17章宏观经济分析与行业分析本章主要内容：17.1全球经济分析基本面分析分析预期收益等价值决定因素的分析方法。

自上而下的层次分析法分析宏观经济环境对企业所处行业的影响分析行业类型及竞争程度，对公司在行业中所处位置进行确定运用不同方法，对公司合理市场价值进行确定。

国际宏观经济环境分析国际政治关系政治、经济、军事、外交国际经济关系全球或者区域经济增长、国际金融以及利率和汇率变动、股市波动、贸易关系等国际金融市场环境分析市场之间的流动（比如黄金市场低迷，股市）汇率影响证券实际升值，进口增加，出口减少，影响相应行业预期升值，人民币增加国际金融市场动荡，影响证券17.2.1国内宏观因素分析1．内生产总值( Gross Domestic Product)快速增长的GDP +结构合理表示该国经济正迅速扩张,经济结构趋于合理，上市公司有充足的机会来提高销售量，利润也会持续上升，从而使人们对经济形势产生良好的预期，增加了，人们投资的积极性，从而促进证券市场价格上扬；非均衡状态时，可能激发各种矛盾，从而导致经济衰退，进而证券市场价格就会下降。

2. 通货膨胀( Inflation )（1）高水平的通货膨胀会导致中央银行提高利率, 严控信贷规模, 从而导致股价下跌。

（2）通货膨胀使生产成本增加, 特别对于产品价格增加慢于成本增加的企业，经营状况恶化、盈利下降以至陷入亏损, 这些企业的股价将因此下降并拖累大市下跌。

（3）一部分产品价格上涨大于成本增加幅度的生产企业和相当一部分消费型商业企业会从价格上涨中获得利益, 一些资本密集型企业则会从资产增值中获得利益，其股价就会上涨。

（4）通货膨胀不但会产生经济影响, 还有可能产生社会影响, 从而影响人们的心理和预期, 进而对股价产生影响。

3.失业率( Unemployment rate )失业率是指正在寻找工作的劳动力占总劳动力(即包括正在工作和正积极寻找工作的劳动力) 的百分比。

第3章证券是如何交易的3.1公司如何发行证券①一级市场：公司通过发行债券或股票为投资项目募集资金，投资银行将新发行的证券推销给投资者的市场②二级市场：投资者交易已发行证券的市场一二级市场之间的关系：一级市场是基础，二级市场是一级市场的延续，一级市场为二级市场提供了可交易证券，二级市场为证券提供流动性，二级市场发展对一级市场具有促进作用③IPO（首次公开发行）：公司初次采取公开方式将股票发行给公众，募集资金并使本公司股票可在二级市场自由交易（上市）④增发：已经上市的公司再次向投资者增加发行股票，募集资金的行为3.2证券如何交易3.2.1 市场类型①直接搜索市场买卖双方自我寻求交易对手，组织性最差，交易效率极低。

②经纪人市场经纪人利用自己掌握的信息，为买卖双方撮合交易，并从中收取费用。

③交易商市场交易商利用自我账户专注于某类资产的买入和卖出，获取差价收入。

④拍卖市场组织性最强的市场，所有交易都聚集在同一场所进行，相比交易商市场无需去需求最优交易价格，降低买卖差价。

3.2.2 交易指令的类型①市价委托指令是按当前市场价格立即执行的买入或卖出指令，成交迅速，按照对手最优价格即时成交卖方报价买方报价序号价格（元/股）数量（手）序号价格（元/股）数量（手）1 33.11 82 33.09 102 33.12 123 33.08 63 33.13 134 33.07 204 33.14 205 33.06 185 33.14 356 33.05 30②限价交易指令投资者严格设定希望买卖证券的价格，限价买入指令要求经纪人在股价降到或低于某一价格时买入一定量证券，限价卖出指令要求经纪人在股价升到或高于某一价格时卖出一定量证券。

③止损指令类似于限价指令，只有股票价格触及价格界限时指令才会被执行。

对卖出止损指令而言，只有股价跌到指定价格时才会卖出股票。

买入止损指令则是当股价上升到某价格时才会买入股票。

交易实例：判断成交情况卖方报价买方报价序号价格（元/股）数量（手）序号价格（元/股）数量（手）1 33.80 182 33.79 122 33.81 223 33.78 173 33.82 134 33.77 204 33.83 205 33.76 185 33.84 356 33.75 30A、买入指令33.80元/股，数量18手B、买入指令33.81元/股，数量18手C、卖出指令33.78元/股，数量20手33.79成交12手，33.78成交8手3.2.3 交易机制①交易商市场（场外交易市场OTC）②电子交易所自动撮合成交③专家做市商每种证券都被分配给一个专家做市商，同时报出买价和卖价，并在此价格下接受成交，为市场提供流动性，利润来自于买卖差价，但差价比较小。