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大气科学学院毕业论文英文文献译文

班级:应用气象专业2012级 122 班学生姓名:周强指导教师:肖国杰原文期刊英文信息

题目:Variety distribution pattern and climatic potential productivity of spring maize in Northeast China under climate change

作者:YUAN Bin GUO Jian Ping YE Ming Zhu ZHAO Jun Fang

期刊名:Chinese Science Bulletin (中文名:中国科学通报)

年月及卷期:2012 年 9 月,第 57 卷第 26 期起止页码:3497 -3508 译文(节译,中文字数: 4027 ):

气候变化下中国东北玉米的多种布局分配方式和春季玉米气候生产潜力

元彬,郭建平,叶明珠,赵俊芳

气象科学中国社科院,北京100081

中国学校环境与资源,安徽农业大学,合肥230036

一摘要

这项研究是基于对101个气象观测站,从1971年到2000年每天的气象资料和0.25°×0.25°的网格分析,以及1951至2100年的数据,由国家气候中心

发布的未来A1B气候情景下通过模拟RegCM3模式,与在中国东北气候条件下玉米的需求增长相结合。农业气候的轨迹资源和气候变化对东北春季玉米品种分布与气候生产潜力的影响,模拟中国在未来气候变化条件下进行的分析。农业气候资源的主要因素包括:初始日期日均温度稳定地传递10℃(≥10℃)下,第一霜冻日期,生长期间的天数,≥10℃的累计温度,总辐射和降水的生长期。结果表明:(1)在未来的100年中,第一霜冻日期(≥10℃)会显著推进,初霜日期将被推迟。生长期的天数将延长,在≥10℃的累积温度和总的辐射量显著增加。然而,降水没有显著变化。(2)由于气候变化,在中国东北,早熟品种将逐步取代晚熟品种,几个玉米品种种植界限将向北,向东扩展。(3)高价值的玉米在中国东北的气候生产潜力会向东北方向产生一个显著的变化。(4)适当对播种期的调整是增加玉米的气候生产潜力的有效方法。

二引文

近年来,全球气候变化已经成为一个热点议题。 IPCC第四次评估报告显示,全球平均气温升高了0.74±0.18℃,近50的线性趋势几乎是近100年的两倍,最近100年研究表明,由于未来气候的变化,农业生产方式和农作物种植系统将被改变,农业生产成本和投资成本将增加,这将对粮食安全产生重要影响。气候变暖导致了明显的温度升高和干旱的增加,高纬度地区如中国东北的降水量逐渐减少,这对农业生产的有很大的影响。

在全球变暖局势下,从上世纪80年代开始,东北平原有一个明显和持续气温增长。和20世纪60年代70年代相比,20世纪80年代 - 90年代的时间段中,东北平原的平均温度增加了1.0°C-2.5°C ,气候变暖的幅度在全国所有农业领域中是最大的。因此,如何适应粮食生产在东北平原的气候变化已经成为一个

普遍关注的问题。目前,有很多对中国东北三省的温度变化、降水和农业气候资源变化的研究成果,气候变化对农作物的影响主要集中在模拟的作物产量上。然而,很少有对未来东北玉米农业气候资源,玉米的品种分布和气候潜在生产力的研究。玉米在东北的种植面积占全国作物种植面积的26.6%,其中玉米对我国的食品生产起着重要作用。因此,本文是基于对101个气象观测站1971年到2000年每天的气象资料在0.25°×0.25°的网格模式下和1951至2100年的数据,由国家气候中心发布的未来A1B气候情景下通过模拟RegCM3模式,与中国东北气候条件下玉米的生长需求相结合,对东北农业气候再变化资源和气候变化对中国东北春季玉米气候生产潜力的影响进行了分析和预测。与此同时,提出了一个适当调整玉米在东北的品种布局和适当调整玉米播种日期的有效方法来提高东北的气候生产力以获得东北地区玉米的最大生产量。

三正文摘选

1资料与方法

1.1数据资源

由国家气象信息中心提供的101个气象台站的逐日气象数据,自1971年到2000年系统蒸发散失在中国东北纳入日常平均温度,每日最高和最低温度,日降水量,日平均风速和每日平均相对湿度。和国家气象中心通过 0.25°×0.25°°的网格模拟的1951至2100年中国东北在未来气候A1B情景下和RegCM3模式的日平均气温,日最高和最低温度,日降水量,日平均风速,日平均值相对湿度,日总辐射,日净辐射量。

1.2方法

气候模型模拟数据的修正。如果通过模拟的数据和观察的数据之间存在一些

差异,误差矫正应该使用气候模型使用前(1971-2000)的模拟数据。由于实际条件的限制,气象观测站的错误更正只发日平均气温,日最高和最低温度,十天降水量,每日平均相对湿度,和每日平均风速,其中的70个气象观测站均匀地从选定的东北三省为插值校正,其余31个气象站的数据用于对模拟数据的验证。2结果和分析

2.1模型模拟的数据的修改结果

每日平均温度和10天(30年的平均值)的降水量的比较在图1中进行了比较。修改前观察到的数据和模型模拟的数据之间存在一些差异,更大的错误可能会在降水比较中发现。然而,错误在修改后显著降低,并且模型模拟数据与观察到的数据吻合。日平均气温和之后10天的降水量的平均误差在图2中进行了比较。有修改后的错误以及均方根误差显著减少。其结果是,它可以被看作是修改后的模型来模拟数据,这样可以很好地反映中国东北地区气候条件下1971年至2000年的情况,类似的结果还可以发现对其他要素的修改。气候模型的模拟假设错误是全身性的,全部由气候模型模拟的数据将具有不随时间而改变的相同的错误,因此,相同的修改可以用于由气候模式模拟获得从1951年-2100的所有数据,它可以用来分析气候变化趋势及其对农业的影响。

2.2农业气候资源的变化

整个时间顺序分为5个阶段:1951 年- 1980年,1981年-2010年,2011年-2040年,2041年-2070年,以及2071至2100年,其中的1981年-2010年期间被选定为基准期,分析中国东北地区农业气候资源的变化。结果表明,1951年-2100年的初始日每日平均温度稳定地增长10℃,第一结霜日期将被推迟,生长期将被延长,总辐射与≥10℃活性80%的保证率下积温将在中国东北增加,上

述变化将在2011年以后更为明显,尤其是对≥10℃活动积温的变化。在基准期中,≥10℃活动积温逐渐从南部下降到北部,从西部到东部。与地处西部辽西走廊值最高的区域,辽东半岛与活动积温3400°Cd以上。与位于小兴安岭和长白山区与活动积温的最低值区域根据2100°C d。相较于基准期,2011年后≥10℃活动积温就会从东到西增加,更多的增加将出现在东北平原和辽宁省。据估计,在2071年-2100年,在≥10℃活动积温下,在辽宁省会来到4000-5000°C d,吉林省和黑龙江省的西南部,和值的中西部的部分也将在2200-2500°C d增加3400°C d。在长白山,这将满足春节玉米的成长和发展的热量要求。至于降水,1951年-2100年只有很小的波动,总体变化并不显著。

2.5气候生产潜力适应播种数据的影响

上述分析表明,辽宁省春玉米气候生产潜力开始在2011年后下降,由于温度升高,为了避免不利的高温期,播种采用推迟播种的方法,以获取最大限度地玉米生产。由于在不同的纬度,经度和海拔高度不同的区域,气候资源有很大不同,所以很难确定一个统一播种延迟天。因此,在辽宁省两个试点地区被选定为研究对象,在一定的前提条件,即玉米能充分成熟,通过延迟播种分析相对于玉米气候生产潜力方面,播种数据的变化率为10,20,30,40,50(以传统方式)。可以看出,2045之前,对于热资源测试点B(123.25°E,41.5°N),播种暂时不能推迟;而测试点A(122.25°E,39.5°N)有相对丰富的热力资源,播期可推迟适当的天数,从而有效地提高了气候生产潜力。2045后,播种推迟方法在两个试验点起了更显著的作用。随着气温的逐渐升高,播种天数被延迟得越多,气候潜在生产率得到提高,但每年中也有大的波动。显然,由于东北地区气候逐渐变暖,在过多的热量资源的地区,适当的播种期推迟能有效提高玉米气候生产潜

力。但辽宁省出现了在某些地区比测试点B热量少的热力资源,所以调整播种天的方法在这些地区现在是不可取的。整个东北地区,由于地理和气候条件的差异,每年有一个大的温度波动。如何确定播种推迟日期的最合适的数量是个非常复杂的问题,需要考虑很多因素。

四结论和讨论

由于气候不断变暖,农业气候在东北地区的已经显著改变,特别是在热力资源上发现了明显加重。与1981年-2010年相比,中国东北地区适宜播种玉米的日期已经显著提升了,2100年,播种天数将增加20左右,第一霜冻日期显著延迟,该地区的生长期普遍延长,生长期在2010年将会延长30-40 天左右,大于等于10℃的活动积温温度显示了一个中国东北重大的增长趋势。热资源的增加改变了玉米品种的布局,早熟品种已经由晚熟品种逐渐取代。从理论上讲,2041年后,除小兴安岭的小部分山,中晚熟品种也基本将种满中国东北。种植界限向北和向东延生,所在区域本来不适合种植玉米,届时将逐渐适合玉米的种植。随着热资源的增加,早熟品种逐渐被晚熟品种取代,玉米气候生产潜力有显著改变。根据大于等于10℃的初始日期来确定播种期的传统方法已经不能充分利用当地气候资源,会造成产量减少。根据气候潜在变化,如果我们把≥10℃的初始日期作为播种日期,当温度升高到一定的程度上,在玉米生长过程中,特别是成熟阶段,会经历由辽宁省产生高温带来的不利影响,导致产量下降。为了避免高温,并改善生产效率,在播种期可以调节播种时期或种植抗高温玉米品种。对于吉林省和黑龙江省而言,那里有足够的热量,玉米气候潜力由于生产力的增加将会有逐渐改善,这归功于2000年后热力资源的增加。由于在不同的年份不同区域的不同的气候资源,如何确定合适的方法来延迟播种日期是一个复杂的问题,需要

考虑的因素很多。至于气候模型对未来气候数据的模拟结果,尽管一些初步的数据纠错已经作出,仍然和实际效果存在差异,这将对我们的研究结果有一定的影响。由于观测台的数目的限制,我们只修改了温度,降水,相对湿度,和风速。然而,辐射数据是直接从模型的结果作出。因此,研究成果有一定的不确定性。

这项研究分析了气候变化对玉米品种分布与气候生产潜力基于对80%的成熟度的标准,其中有在一定的科学依据下分析气候资源对未来100年中国东北地区的影响。但用于对播种日期的调整,对于不同的地区不同的年份有一个不同的天数,因此,最佳播种期需要进一步的研究。同时,玉米产量也受到了社会生产力因素和人为因素的影响,其中有理论和实践之间的差异。一个区域的实际产量受诸多因素影响,如气候,土壤和社会经济。虽然气候生产潜力只是对农业气候资源评估的重要工具之一,但气候生产潜力和实际产量并不完全一致,因此,如何合理地考虑作物生产的社会经济因素的贡献也为今后研究的重要任务之一。

论文外文文献翻译3000字左右

南京航空航天大学金城学院 毕业设计(论文)外文文献翻译 系部经济系 专业国际经济与贸易 学生姓名陈雅琼学号2011051115 指导教师邓晶职称副教授 2015年5月

Economic policy,tourism trade and productive diversification (Excerpt) Iza Lejárraga,Peter Walkenhorst The broad lesson that can be inferred from the analysis is that promoting tourism linkages with the productive capabilities of a host country is a multi-faceted approach influenced by a variety of country conditions.Among these,fixed or semi-fixed factors of production,such as land,labor,or capital,seem to have a relatively minor influence.Within the domain of natural endowments,only agricultural capital emerged as significant.This is a result that corresponds to expectations,given that foods and beverages are the primary source of demand in the tourism economy.Hence,investments in agricultural technology may foment linkages with the tourism market.It is also worth mentioning that for significant backward linkages to emerge with local agriculture,a larger scale of tourism may be important. According to the regression results,a strong tourism–agriculture nexus will not necessarily develop at a small scale of tourism demand. It appears that variables related to the entrepreneurial capital of the host economy are of notable explanatory significance.The human development index(HDI), which is used to measure a country's general level of development,is significantly and positively associated with tourism linkages.One plausible explanation for this is that international tourists,who often originate in high-income countries,may feel more comfortable and thus be inclined to consume more in a host country that has a life-style to which they can relate easily.Moreover,it is important to remember that the HDI also captures the relative achievements of countries in the level of health and education of the population.Therefore,a higher HDI reflects a healthier and more educated workforce,and thus,the quality of local entrepreneurship.Related to this point,it is important to underscore that the level of participation of women in the host economy also has a significantly positive effect on linkages.In sum, enhancing local entrepreneurial capital may expand the linkages between tourism and other sectors of the host country.

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(原文复印或打印材料,B5纸) In this paper based on the unique geometry and mechanical movement of beam pumping unit,we have presented a simple swing equation and computed motorial parameter;meanwhile under the conditions of the static load and inertial load of the polished-rod of a conventional pumping unit,we have also presented on equivalent dynamic model of the pumping unit system and the type-curves of net torque of the crankshaft with the characteristic of inertial counterbalance have been computed;Based on features and mechanical analysis of belt,a simple model for calculating belt transmission efficiency is developed the model can provide a theoretical base for study on the other transient variable of beam pumping unit;the cyclic loading coefficients is defined once and compute the nominal Power of the motor; at last we compare the beam pumping unit and the adjustable diameter and changeable toque pumping unit, based on this a program have been finished,and we also introduce other power saving pumping units. This graduation project mainly completes through the high accuracy data acquisition, the gain installs on the oil well oil extraction equipment the electric current, the voltage, the temperature, the pressure, the fluid position, the contact surface, the current capacity, contains water data and so on sensor, corresponds the connection with the many kinds of wireless communications (for example GPRS/CDMA) transmits it to the observation and control center, as well as will receive in the central server to the parameter carries on the real-time analysis and the processing parallel intergrowth becomes the database and the curve report form. Is advantageous for the oil field management level to carry on the prompt accurate management to the scene equipment. This system depends on in the Beijing Kunlun passing condition automation software science and technology limited company's entire center cultural work

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目录 1挑战:小额贷款中的进入和商业银行的长期承诺 (1) 2什么商业银行带给小额贷款和什么把他们留在外 (2) 3 商业银行的四个模型进入小额贷款之内 (4) 3.1内在的单位 (4) 3.2财务子公司 (5) 3.3策略的同盟 (5) 3.4服务公司模型 (6) 4 合法的形式和操作的结构比较 (8) 5 服务的个案研究公司模型:厄瓜多尔和Haiti5 (9)

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java毕业论文外文文献翻译

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