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低碳经济的外文翻译

低碳经济的外文翻译
低碳经济的外文翻译

外文翻译

原文:

Low carbon economy

This paper examines different carbon pathways for achieving deep CO2 reduction targets for the UK using a macro-econometric hybrid model E3MG, which stands for Energy–Economy–Environment Model at the Global level. The E3MG, with combines a top-down approach for modeling the global economy and for estimating the aggregate and disaggregate energy demand and a bottom-up approach (Energy Technology sub Model, ETM) for simulating the power sector, which then provides feedback to the energy demand equations and the whole economy. The ETM sub model uses a probabilistic approach and historical data for estimating the penetration levels of the different technologies, considering their economic, technical and environmental characteristics. Three pathway scenarios (CFH, CLC and CAM) simulate the CO2 reduction by 40%, 60% and 80% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels respectively and are compared with a reference scenario, with no reduction target. The targets are modeled as the UK contribution to an international mitigation effort, such as achieving the G8 reduction targets, which is a more realistic political frame work for the UK to move towards deep reductions rather than moving alone. This paper aims to provide modeling evidence that deep reduction targets can be met through different carbon pathways while also assessing the macroeconomic effects of the pathways on GDP and investment.

Climate change, as a result of rising greenhouse gas emissions, threatens the stability of the world’s climate, economy and population. The causes and consequences of climate change are global, and while national governments can and should take action, the ultimate solution must be a collective global effort. The latest scientific consensus (IPCC, 2007) has further strengthened the evidence base that it is very likely that anthropogenic GHG emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century. A major recent report on the economics of global climate change (Stern,

2006) supports the position that the benefits of stringent climate mitigation action outweighed the costs and risks of delayed action. Although there is a global consideration of the climate change effects, individual countries have undertaken different steps in climate change mitigation, which is obvious given the extended negotiations towards the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol. The EU and individual Member States have undertaken several commitments and directed several policies towards the reduction of their emissions. UK has been selected for this analysis as there is political will within the country, as described below from the commitments to tackle climate change. But this commitment can be examined in the context of negotiations at international level, such as the recent commitment of G8 to reduce their emissions by 80% by 2050.

Climate change mitigation and energy security are the UK’s core energy policy goals (BERR, 2007). In addition, the decline in domestic reserves and production of UK oil and natural gas, combined with increasing geopolitical instabilities in key gas and oil production and transmission countries have highlighted the need for a secure and resilient UK energy system. Other UK energy policy goals are reductions in vulnerable consumers’ exposure to high energy prices and a continued emphasis on open and competitive energy markets.

The UK set itself a groundbreaking climate change mitigation policy with the publication of a long-term national CO2 reduction target of 60% by 2050(DTI, 2003). This target was established in response to the climate challenge set out by the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution (RCEP, 2000). Climate change mitigation targets were reaffirmed in light of competing energy security issues via the 2007 Energy White paper (BERR, 2007). The 60% UK CO2 reductions target is being established in the UK legislative process through the Climate Change Bill as the minimum CO2 reduction target required by 2050 (DEFRA, 2008). This longer term target has been further analyzed by the new regulatory Committee on Climate Change (CCC, 2008), in light of new evidence concerning global stabilization targets (IPCC, 2007). This has led to the proposal for an 80% reduction target for greenhouse gases by 2050 compared to 1990 levels. This target has been adopted by the Brown

Administration and the Energy and Climate Change Secretary of State Ed Miliband, becoming a law through the Climate Change Act (DECC, 2008). Additionally, the UK has been a leading proponent of global long-term CO2 target setting within the G8, as the causes and consequences of climate change are global, and while national governments can and should take action, the ultimate solution must be a collective global effort. The G8 dialogue resulted in agreement at the 2009 G8 Italian summit for a robust response to climate change including the adoption of the goal to achieve at least 80% reduction of their emissions by 2050, and aiming to reach an agreement of a 50% reduction in global emissions with other countries.

The implementation of three deep CO2 reduction targets (40%, 60% and 80%) for the G8 is examined using the macro-econometric E3MG model. Results are reported for the UK, which is selected as there is a political will to implement such reductions. These targets, examined within the UK Energy Research Center’s 2050 project (UKERC, 2050), are met through the implementation of a portfolio of policies in contrast to the neoclassical approach, where the targets are imposed and the marginal abatement cost for meeting those targets is estimated. The paper contributes by adopting a novel hybrid approach integrating simulation models of the economic system and energy technologies and therefore providing an alternative approach to the traditional economic equilibrium modeling. Moreover the paper aims to provide evidence that there exist pathways for meeting deep reduction targets and also helping the economy to grow. The need for such evidence has been noted by the IPCC in its assessment of the literature on stringent mitigation targets. Such evidence can inform the international negotiations for a post-Kyoto global agreement.

Long-term forecast of the economy and of the energy system expansion is subject to uncertainties on fossil fuel resources, prices, economic and technical characteristics of new technologies, behavioral change, political framework and regulatory environment. But the modeling approach implemented to simulate the energy system and the interaction with the global economy is crucial for the results. There are many modeling approaches used for examining energy and climate policies at global or at national level either through macro or energy system models. In the

extensive literature on energy-economic modeling of energy and climate policies, there are two wide spread modeling approaches: bottom-up vs. top- down models. The two model classes differ mainly with respect to the emphasis placed on technological details of the energy system and the comprehensiveness of endogenous market adjustments (Bohringer and Rutherford, 2007). However, recent evaluations of the literature (IPCC, 2007) have shown the increasing convergence of these model categories as each group of modelers adopts the strengths of the alternate approach. There is a long track record of energy models underpinning major energy policy initiatives, producing a large and vibrant research community and a broad range of energy modeling approaches (Jebara and Iniyan, 2006). Particularly in recent years, energy models have been directly applied by policy makers for long-term decarburization scenarios (IEA, 2008; Das et al., 2007; European Commission, 2006), with further academic modeling collaborations directly feeding into the global policy debate on climate change mitigation (Weyant, 2004; Strachan Neil et al., 2009).

Before deriving any particular conclusion from the scenarios presented in this paper, it is important to consider the modeling approach and the way the scenarios have been implemented with E3MG. E3MG being a macro-econometric model of the global economy has the advantage of examining policies at global and at national level, which is more important in cases of international efforts. The 40%, 60% and 80% reduction targets are not realistic options if implemented only by UK because they would not lead to a significant reduction in climate change and because no single country would easily take a decision moving towards such policies on its own. For these reasons we assume that the emissions reduction targets for the UK are implemented as part of international reduction targets. Based on the facts that the Obama USA Administration is committed to finding solution to climate change issue and the major developing countries are reluctant to adopt such policies in the medium term, a G8 reduction target of 40%, 60% and 80% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels seems to be a more realistic framework.

The E3MG model adopts a hybrid approach. The aggregate and disaggregate energy demand is estimated using econometric techniques, allowing for fuel

switching for the 12 different fuel types and for the 19 fuel users, while the power sector is simulated using a probabilistic approach which considers the economic, technical, environmental characteristics of the power units but considers also the history. The electric system expansion is modeled by using parameters for the different technologies based on historical data on learning rates, which allows new technologies to gain a share in the market even when their cost is higher than conventional technologies. Moreover the dispatch of the different technologies to meet the electric demand, although using the cost optimization approach comparing the penetration of the different technologies, takes historical data as its starting point. Both the energy demand system and the energy technology options are implemented so as to model market imperfections which exist in all markets and are not usually considered in the classical cost optimization techniques. These market imperfections, resulting either from socio-political factors or from the presence of oligopolies that speculate on the electricity price, cause differentiation in the electricity mix across countries, and lead in many cases to significantly different profiles from those projected from models assuming perfect market conditions.

The scenarios are implemented in this framework, allowing the cumulative investment at global level for alternative technologies so their faster penetration provides solutions with a more diverse electric mix. It is also important to mention that the emission reduction scenarios are modeled not by imposing a reduction target and estimating the marginal abatement cost for meeting this target, but by applying different policies at different strengths and different timing, which is consistent with the theoretical background of the space–time economics adopted in the E3MG model. The strength and timing of a policy can trigger (or not) the penetration of a new technology. For example, large investments in electric cars in the medium term can lead to their fast penetration, while large investments in hydrogen cars take longer to have effect and so cannot have similar results. The different scenarios have been implemented by applying in different strengths and timing the policies of carbon pricing, direct investment and revenue recycling in the form of investments in the power sector, investments in the transport and other consumption sectors. The aim

was all of them to have a positive effect, by reducing emissions whilst maintaining economic growth. This proves to be the most important conclusion of this paper, that there exist several portfolios of policies that can have large emissions reductions and also help the economy to grow. This finding is in contrast with those from many models predicting that energy investments will have an important negative effect on the economic growth, deriving from the assumptions in the neoclassical approach of full employment (so that there are no extra resources available to produce extra output) and of optimization of the baseline economy by a central planner (so that any shift away from the optimal solution will reduce GDP). But it is consistent with recent political decisions at EU, USA and Japan to invest on green technologies and infrastructure so as to boost their economies out of the global recession.

The set of Carbon Ambition scenarios (40%, 60%and80% CO2 reductions from 1990 levels by 2050) offer insights on decarburization pathways and energy–economy–environment trade offs. Decarbonising the global energy system is a timing and well as a political problem with the different portfolios of policies becoming preferable depending on the final and intermediate targets. Achieving the stringent 80% target for the UK by 2050 appears feasible, while maintaining economic growth, but implies adoption of a portfolio of policies including strong regulation and high carbon prices.

Source: A.S.Dagoumas,T.S.Barker,2010. “Pathways to a low-carbon economy for the UK with the macro-e conometric E3MG model”. Energy Policy,April,pp.3067-3077.

译文:

低碳经济

本文通过审查不同的碳途径来实现二氧化碳深度减排的目标,为实现这一目标,英国使用了在全球水平上代表能源——经济——环境的宏观经济混合模型E3MG。在全球经济视角下,E3MG模型将估计集聚与分散的能源需求这一自上而下的方法,同模拟电力部门这一自下而上的方法(能源技术模型,ETM)相结合,然后为能源需求平衡和整个经济提供反馈。能源技术模型使用了概率统计和历史数据来估计不同技术的水平差距,同时考虑了经济、技术和环境特点。三个途径方案(CFH,CLC,CAM)假设到2050年二氧化碳排放量在1990年的水平上分别下降40%,60%和80%,同时将其与没有减排目标的参考情形相比较。这一减排目标用来模拟英国对于国际缓和成果的贡献,如实现八国集团的减排目标,这是一个使英国走向深入减排而不是孤军奋战的更为现实的政治构架。本文旨在用建模来证明深入减排目标是可以通过不同的碳途径得以实现的,同时通过国内生产总值和投资的途径来评估宏观经济效应。

温室气体排放量的上升导致了气候的改变,威胁到了全球气候,经济和人口的稳定。这种气候改变导致了全球性问题,如果国际政府组织要采取措施,那么最终的解决方案必须是全球共同努力的结果。最新的科学研究结果(IPCC,2007)进一步强调了基础证据,人类活动产生的温室气体以现在的或很快的速度排放,有可能会导致更加严峻的全球变暖问题,而且在21世纪会诱发许多全球气候系统的变化。全球气候变化经济会议上的一份主要报告(斯特恩,2006)支持这样一个观点:严格气候缓解行动的利益要大于延迟行动的代价和风险。尽管气候变化带来的影响是要全球性考虑的,但个别国家在减缓气候变化上承担了不同的角色,这也明显延长了对《京都议定书》批准的谈判时间。欧盟和个别成员国已经采取了一些措施和直接的政策来减少温室气体的排放。根据国家内部的政治意愿,英国也被选入了这一分析,比如以下所述的解决气候变化问题的承诺。但这一承诺只有在国际水平谈判的情况下才能被审查到,比如八国集团最近承诺,到2050年温室气体排放量将减少80%。

气候变化的缓解和能源安全是英国的核心能源政策目标(BERR,2007)。此外,英国国内的石油及天然气储备和产量逐渐减少,随着地缘政治不稳定性的增加,在关键气体、石油生产和传输国家,英国强调,需要有一个安全的、有弹性的能源系统。其它英国能源政策的目标是减少敏感消费者对高能源价格的承受风

险,继续将重点放在开放的和有竞争力的能源市场上。

英国发布公告(DTI,2003),作为长期国家减排目标,到2050年二氧化碳排放量将降到60%,为自己建立了一套开创性的环境变化缓解政策。这一目标成立于皇家环境污染委员会对气候挑战的回应(RCEP,2000)。在2007年能源白皮书关于竞争能源安全问题中,重申了气候变化的缓解目标(BERR,2007)。到2050年最低限额二氧化碳排放的目标正在通过气候变化议案,在英国立法程序中建立英国60%的二氧化碳排放这一目标(DEFRA,2008)。新型气候变化委员会进一步分析了这个长期目标(CCC,2008),并提供了新的关于全球稳定目标的证据(IPCC,2007)。并提出了一个建议,到2050年温室气体排放量相比于1990年水平下降80%。布朗政府和能源及气候变化问题部的部长艾德米利班德已采纳这一目标,通过气候变化法案,使其成为了法律(DECC,2008)。此外,英国一直是八国集团中全球二氧化碳长期目标设定的主要倡导者,由于气候变化的原因和后果是全球性的,因此各国政府可以而且应该采取行动,最终解决方案必须是一个全球集体努力的结果。八国集团通过讨论,一致同意2009年意大利八国峰会稳健应对气候变化目标的协定,其包括至2050年达到温室气体排放量减少80%的目标,并与其他国家达成全球碳排放量减少50%的协议。

八国集团三个二氧化碳深度减排目标(40%,60%,80%)已通过宏观经济模型E3MG的审查。由于英国有政治意愿来实行这一减排,因此研究结果于英国发表。这些目标在英国能源研究中心2050年的项目中被审查(UKERC,2050),通过一系列的政策组合与新古典主义方法相比较,通过目标的执行和边际减排成本的估计来确保这些目标的实施。本文通过采取结合经济体系模型的新型复合方法与能源技术,来提供一个传统经济平衡模型的可选择方法。此外,本文旨在提供证据表明存在为满足深度减排目标且能帮助经济增长的途径。气候变化专门委员会在其对严格减排目标的文献评价中已提到了这些证据的必要性。这些证据可以告知为后京都全球协议而进行的国际谈判。

经济和能源系统扩展的长期预测受到化石燃料资源,价格,经济和新技术特点,行为改变,政治构架和监管环境这些不确定性因素的影响。但建模方法模拟实现能源系统,以及与全球经济的相互作用对结果是至关重要的。许多的建模方法通过在全球或国家水平上的宏观或能源系统模型,来审查能源问题和气候政

策。在研究能源和气候政策能源经济模型的大量文献中,有两个被广泛传播的模型:自下而上的模型与自上而下的模型。这两个模型的主要区别在于对能源系统技术详细度和内生市场调节的综合化程度两方面的强调情况(贝林和卢瑟福,2007)。然而,最近的文献评估(IPCC,2007)指出:这些模型类型的日益趋同,是由于每组建模利用了交替方法的优点。有一个能源模型的长期记录,其以主要能源积极政策为基础,形成了一个庞大且充满活力的研究团体和广泛的能源建模方法(杰巴拉和尹亚恩,2006)。特别是近几年来,能源模型被政策制定者直接运用于长期脱碳方案中(国际能源署,2008;丹斯等人,2007年;欧洲委员会,2006),并进一步融入到学术合作模型的关于气候变化缓解的全球政策讨论中(韦恩特,2004;斯特拉坎尼尔等人,2009年)。

在从本文的阐述中获得任何详细的结论之前,考虑一下建模的方法和E3MG 实施的情景模式是很重要的。E3MG作为全球经济的宏观经济模型,具有在全球和国际水平下进行审查的优势,这种情况下的国际努力是非常重要的。如果仅仅只有英国实行的话,要实现40%,60%,80%的减排目标是不现实的,因为在气候变化上这不会导致减排的有效降低,因为没有一个国家能够仅仅通过自己的力量轻松地决定政策的运行。由于这些原因,我们假设将英国减排目标的实现作为国际减排目标实现的一部分。实际上,奥巴马政府已经承诺寻找解决气候变暖问题的方法,在中期发展阶段,主要发展中国家也被迫采取了一些政策措施,八国集团到2050年二氧化碳排放量在1990年的水平上分别下降40%,60%和80%的目标,似乎是一个更加现实的构架。

E3MG模型采用了混合的方式。运用统计技术估计集聚的和分散的能源需求,允许12个不同的燃料类型和19个燃料用户的燃料切换, 同时电力部门运用概率统计的方法进行了模拟,其考虑到了电力单位经济、技术、环境的特点,也考虑到了历史的特点。电力系统功能扩展是以学习速率上的历史数据为基础,采用不同工艺基础参数进行建模的,尽管其成本均高于常规技术的成本,但新技术仍给市场带来了一份收获。此外,通过不同技术的调度来满足电厂的电力需求,例如使用成本优化法,比较不同的技术渗透,但仍要以历史数据为起点。能源需求系统和能源技术选择的实施,都是以存在于所有市场的市场不完善性为假设条件的,这通常不被考虑在古典成本优化技术之中。这些市场的不完善性,是由社会

政治因素和寡头垄断市场的存在所导致的,由此来推测电的价格,导致各国交流电的差异, 这种假设完善的市场条件导致了计划在很多情况下的显著不同。

这一构架下的方案已经实施了,其允许通过在全球水平上的累计投资额进行技术选择,从而他们的快速渗透能提供更加多元化的混合解决方案。同样重要的是,要说明模拟减排方案既不是通过降低减排目标,也不是通过估计边际减排成本来达到的,而是通过多方不同的力量,在不同的时点用不同的政策来实现的,这和E3MG模型采用的时空经济学理论背景是一致的。这一政策的力度和时间会导致一种新技术的渗透。例如,电动汽车在中期的巨大投资会导致快速渗透,但氢能汽车的巨大投资得花更长的时间才能生效,因此不能产生相同的结果。许多不同方案已通过不同力度和时间的碳定价政策实施了,包括在电力部门,运输和其他消费部门的直接投资和收益回收的投资形式。目的是通过减少排放,同时保持经济增长,使它们都能起到积极的作用。目前存在的几种组合政策会有较大的减排作用,还能帮助经济增长,这被证实为本文最重要的结论。该发现与许多模型的预测相反,例如能源投资对于经济增长会产生一个重要的负面影响,解决新古典主义方法对于充分就业的假设(所以没有额外的资源可以产生额外的输出)以及由中央计划的经济最优化的基线(导致任何最优解决方法的转向都会减少国民生产总值)。但它与最近的欧盟、美国和日本在环保技术和基础设施投资的政治决定是一致的,以致推动当地经济发展,减缓全球经济衰退。

以碳为目标的一整套方案(在1990年水平上的二氧化碳排放量到2050年分别减少40%,60%和80%)深刻地提出了脱碳途径和能源——经济——环境的权衡。全球能源脱碳系统是一个时间问题,同时也是一个政治问题,它通过依靠最终的和中期的目标使不同投资组合的政策变得更好。由此看来,到2050年英国实现严格的80%的减排目标同时保持经济的增长是可行的,但其也暗含着应采取一个严格法规和高碳价格的投资组合政策。

出处: A.S.戴格曼斯,T.S.巴克.《英国基于宏观经济E3MG模型的通向低碳经济之路》.能源政策,2010(4):3067-3077.

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期末论文 院系 专业班级 学号 学生姓名 成绩评定

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附录A

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内部控制外文文献翻译

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