影响长江口深水航道骤淤的非常态天气过程Ⅰ：台风的路径特征及数值验证黄华聪;贾晓;路川藤【摘要】为归纳长江口深水航道台风期骤淤的发生规律及特征,分析了发生骤淤时刻的气象条件与对应的波浪条件.研究发现,牛皮礁站的波能与骤淤具有较好的相关性;从台风路径上分析,长江口东侧过境台风对航道的骤淤影响显著.结合历史台风路径,选取3个典型路径的台风,选择藤田-高桥圆形经验风场和CFSR(climate forecast system reanalysis)风场的混合风场复演了台风场,然后采用SWAN模型模拟了不同路径台风期间的波况,最后以牛皮礁站的浅水波能流为判别参数,分析不同路径台风对长江口深水航道骤淤的影响.研究表明长江口东侧过境的台风是较易产生较大波能并进一步诱发骤淤的典型台风路径,这一分析结果与2010年以来的骤淤实测台风路径结果吻合.%To summarize the occurrence regularity and characteristics of sudden siltation during typhoon period in the deepwater navigation channel of Yangtze Estuary, the meteorological conditions and corresponding wave conditions during sudden siltation are analyzed. The results show that the wave energy correlates well with the siltation in NPJ station. The analysis of typhoon paths suggests that the sudden siltation in the navigation channel is significantly influenced by the taphoon passing through the east part of Yangtze Estuary. In this study, three typical typhoon paths are selected with reference to the historic typhoon paths in Yangtze Estuary, and the typhoon field was replicated by combing the empirical circular ( Fujita and Takahashi ) wind field and CFSR ( climate forecast system reanalysis) wind field. SWAN model is then used tosimulate the wave conditions under different typhoons paths. Finally, the effects of different typhoon paths on the sudden siltation are analyzed by taking the shallow water wave energy in NPJ station as the discriminant parameter. The study indicates that the typhoon passing through the east area of the Yangtze Estuary is found to be a typical typhoon path, which can readily induce relatively large wave energy and subsequent sudden siltation. And such analysis result agrees well with that of measured typhoon path causing sudden siltation since 2010 .【期刊名称】《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》【年(卷),期】2017(045)005【总页数】7页(P432-438)【关键词】长江口深水航道;骤淤;台风路径;藤田-高桥经验风场;CFSR风场;SWAN 模型;波能【作者】黄华聪;贾晓;路川藤【作者单位】上海河口海岸科学研究中心,上海 201201;上海河口海岸科学研究中心,上海 201201;上海交通大学水动力学教育部重点实验室,上海 200240;南京水利科学研究院河流海岸研究所,江苏南京 210029【正文语种】中文【中图分类】TV148;P732骤淤是港口航道工程十分关心的水沙事件,其因淤积量大且淤积时间短,给疏浚造成很大的压力,甚至会影响到船舶的安全通航。
四川省潜在蒸散量变化及其气候影响因素分析陈东东;王晓东;王森;栗晓玮【摘要】潜在蒸散(ET0)是评价某一地区干旱程度的重要指标,在全球气候变暖趋势下,估计ET0的变化对科学估算作物需水量,提高水分利用率具有重大意义.本文利用四川省1961-2014年151个气象站的气象资料,采用Penman-Monteith公式分3个区域(四川盆地、攀西地区和川西高原)计算ET0,并对主要气象因子平均气温、相对湿度、日照时数、平均风速的相对变化率、敏感系数及其对ET0贡献率的时空变化进行分析.结果表明:四川盆地和川西高原ET0呈现微弱减少,而攀西地区则呈现一定的增加,其空间分布表现为:攀西地区和川西高原南部年ET0为高值区,多在1000~1350mm,四川盆地的西南部年ET0为低值区,多在651~900mm,从西南向东北呈现"高-低-高"趋势.各气象因子对ET0的影响(对ET0变化的贡献率)主要取决于敏感性和相对变化率两方面.3个区域ET0对相对湿度的变化均表现最敏感,其敏感系数分别为-1.13、-1.40、-1.53.在主要气象因子中,在四川盆地和攀西地区,平均风速的多年相对变化率最大(-29.7%、-16.3%),川西高原则为平均温度(40.4%).进一步分析得出,平均风速在四川盆地和川西高原对ET0变化的贡献率最大,是主导影响因素,而在攀西地区则为相对湿度.%Potential evapotranspiration(ET0) is an important metric in measuring drought conditions for an area. Examining ET0changes is critical for estimating crop water demand, and thus it is crucial for improving water use efficiency in the context of global warming. Based on daily meteorological data of 151 meteorological stations in Sichuan province from 1961 to 2014, the authors calculated ET0 with the Penman-Monteith formula for the three terrain regions of Sichuan: Sichuan basin, Panxi region and WesternSichuan Plateau, and also analyzed relative variation and sensitivity coefficients of the major meteorological factors (i.e., mean air temperature, relative humidity, radiation hours, and mean wind speed), and the spatiotemporal changes in their contribution to ET0changes. The results showed that ET0 in the Sichuan basin and the Western Sichuan Plateau presented a weak declining trend, as opposed to an increasing trend in Panxi region. In terms of spatial distribution, ET0 was high in the Panxi region and the Western Sichuan Plateau (1000-1350mm·y-1), and it was low in the southwestern Sichuan Plateau (651-900mm·y-1), with a decreasing and then increasing gradient of ET0 from the southwest to northeast. The effect of each meteorological factor on ET0(i.e., contribution of each meteorological factor to ET0change) was determined by their sensitivity to ET0 and relative variation. ET0 was most sensitive to relative humidity across the three regions, with sensitivity coefficients of-1.13,-1.40,-1.53, respectively. Among all the meteorological factors, the variable with the highest long-term relative variation was mean wind speed in Sichuan basin (-29.7%) and Panxi region (-16.3%), in contrast to mean air temperature in Western Sichuan Plateau (40.4%). Further analyses suggested that the dominant factor determining ET0 for Sichuan basin and Western Sichuan Plateau was mean wind speed, and that for Panxi region was relative humidity.【期刊名称】《中国农业气象》【年(卷),期】2017(038)009【总页数】10页(P548-557)【关键词】潜在蒸散;气象因子;敏感系数;贡献率【作者】陈东东;王晓东;王森;栗晓玮【作者单位】中国气象局成都高原气象研究所/高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室,成都 610072;四川省农业气象中心,成都 610072;安徽省农业气象中心,合肥 230031;新疆农业气象台,乌鲁木齐 830002;重庆第二师范学院,重庆 400065【正文语种】中文潜在蒸散（ET0）表示在一定气象条件下水分供应不受限制时，某一固定下垫面可能达到的最大蒸散量。
基于AFTOX模型预测甲醛泄漏造成的大气影响和风险防控作者：亓国梁来源：《科技视界》2020年第17期摘要本文选用AFTOX模型，研究分析了甲醛储罐在发生泄漏的情况下，对周边大气环境的影响，通过对可能的气象条件和最不利气象条件下扩散毒性终点浓度和最远距离的预测，对泄漏后果进行了分析，并为应急管理提供依据。
关键词AFTOX模型;大气影响;应急管理中图分类号： X51 ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;文献标识码： ADOI：10.19694/ki.issn2095-2457 . 2020 . 17 . 91AbstractIn this paper， aftox model is selected to study and analyze the impact of formaldehyde storage tank on the surrounding atmospheric environment in case of leakage. Through the prediction of the terminal concentration and the farthest distance of diffusion toxicity under the possible meteorological conditions and the most unfavorable meteorological conditions， the leakage consequences are analyzed， and the basis for emergency management is provided.Key wordsAFTOX Model; Impact on the atmosphere;Contingency management0 引言本文以甲醛储罐泄漏事故为情景源，根据《建设项目环境风险评价技术导则》（HJ169-2018）中推荐的AFTOX模型，利用EIApro2018软件，对泄漏事故进行大气环境影响预测，并对预测结果进行分析，提出有效的风险防控和应急管理措施，为甲醛生产、使用企业进行风险管控和制定突发环境事件应急预案提供参考。
