美国经济展望与货币政策

编者按：本文为美联储副主席克拉里达(Richard H. Clarida)在第36届NABE年度经济政策会议的演讲（中英双语）。

美国经济展望与货币政策感谢您有机会今年再次参加美国国家商业经济学协会的年度经济政策会议。

我真的很期待这次对话。

但是首先，我想与大家分享一些有关美国经济和货币政策前景的想法。

在经历了这个创纪录的经济扩张的第11年，美国经济依然处于良好的状态。

劳动力市场保持强劲，经济活动以适度的速度增长，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的基线前景是在2020年继续保持这种表现。

目前，个人消费支出PCE价格通胀正略低于委员会的2％的目标，但我们预计，在适当的货币政策下，通胀率将逐步上升至我们对称的2％的目标。

尽管失业率处于50年来的最低水平，但工资的增长与生产率的提高和潜在的通货膨胀相符。

迄今为止，我们没有看到任何证据表明强劲的劳动力市场正在对价格通胀施加过度的成本上升的压力。

尽管支持家庭消费的基本面保持了稳定，但在2019年，海外增长的乏力以及全球的发展对美国的投资，出口和制造业造成压力。

今年开始，种种迹象表明，全球经济增长的阻力已开始减弱，贸易政策的不确定性有所缓解。

但是，前景仍然存在风险。

特别是，我们正在密切监视冠状病毒的情况；至少在今年一季度，冠状病毒可能会对中国的增长产生明显的冲击。

对中国增长的破坏可能会蔓延到全球经济的其他部分。

但是，现在尚无法猜测这些影响的规模或持久性，以及它们是否会导致前景发生重大变化。

此外，美国的通货膨胀率仍然低迷。

我认为通过调查，市场价格和计量经济模型测得的通货膨胀预期处于和我们的价格稳定目标相一致的范围的低位。

在2019年期间，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）在货币政策立场上有所转变，以抵消一些重大的全球增长阻力和全球通货紧缩压力。

我相信这种转变是适时的，我们不仅一直在为经济提供支持，同时还帮助维持了美国的前景预期。

货币政策运行良好，并将继续支持持续的增长，强劲的劳动力市场，以及带动通胀率回到我们对称的2％的目标。

只要收到的有关经济的大致信息与这一前景保持一致，当前的货币政策立场就不大可能会变动。

话虽如此，货币政策并没有达到预定的目标。

委员会将在逐次会议的基础上推进，并持续监视我们最近的政策行动的效果以及与前景相关的其他信息，以评估联邦基金利率目标范围是否在适当路径上。

当然，如果在将来，出现了需要引起我们对前景进行重新评估的重大事态发展，我们将作出相应反应。

在2019年1月，我和我的FOMC同事确认我们的目标是就美国金融体系中就充足银行准备金水平展开操作。

10月，我们宣布并开始实施这项计划，以应对9月份显而易见的回购协议（repo）市场带来的压力。

为此，我们一直在购买短期国债，并进行隔夜回购操作和定期回购操作。

这些努力已经成功地稳住了货币市场的形势，包括在年底前的那一波压力。

随着我们的短期国债购买继续将准备金增加到充足水平，我们打算逐步结束对回购操作的积极使用。

随着准备金达到持续充足的水平，我们打算放慢购买短期国债的步伐，以使我们的资产负债表的增长与对负债的需求趋势保持一致。

我要强调，我们随时准备根据自己的目标而调整计划的细节，也就是将联邦基金利率保持在FOMC所需的目标范围内，并且这些操作只是技术措施；我们并不打算就此改变货币政策立场。

最后，请允许我以联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的角度回顾，于2019年开始的货币政策战略，相关工具和沟通尝试。

这种回顾（的公众参与对我们来说是前所未有的）对于美联储来说是第一次。

通过14次Fed Listens活动，包括在芝加哥举行的一次研究会议，我们不仅听取了学术专家的各种观点，而且还听取了消费者，劳工，社区，企业和其他团体的代表的观点。

我们在评估如何最好地实现和维持充分就业和价格稳定时充分吸收和使用了这些见解。

7月，我们开始在定期举行的FOMC会议上讨论与评估各种相关主题。

我们将在FOMC会议纪要中继续报告我们的讨论，并在今年晚些时候完成回顾时与公众分享我们的结论。

非常感谢您的时间和精力。

我期待接下来的对话和问答环节。

Thank you for the opportunity to participate again this year in the Annual Economic Policy Conference of the National Association for Business Economics. I am really looking forward to this conversation. But first, I would like to share with you some thoughts about the outlook for the U.S. economy and monetary policy.In its 11th year of a record expansion, the U.S. economy is in a good place. The labor market remains strong, economic activity is increasing at a moderate pace, and the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) baseline outlook is for a continuation of this performance in 2020. At present, personal consumption expenditures, or PCE, price inflation is running somewhat below the Committee's 2 percent objective, but we project that, under appropriate monetary policy, inflation will rise gradually to our symmetric 2 percentobjective. Although the unemployment rate is around a 50-year low, wages are rising broadly in line with productivity growth and underlying inflation. We are not seeing any evidence to date that a strong labor market is putting excessive cost-push pressure on price inflation.Although the fundamentals supporting household consumption remain solid, over 2019, sluggish growth abroad and global developments weighed on investment, exports, and manufacturing in the United States. Coming into this year, indications suggested that headwinds to global growth had begun to abate, and uncertainties around trade policy had diminished. However, risks to the outlook remain. In particular, we are closely monitoring the emergence of the coronavirus, which is likely to have a noticeable impact on Chinese growth, at least in the first quarter of this year. The disruption there could spill over to the rest of the global economy. But it is still too soon to even speculate about either the size or the persistence of these effects, or whether they will lead to a material change in the outlook. In addition, U.S. inflation remains muted. And inflation expectations—those measured by surveys, market prices, and econometric models—reside at the low end of a range Iconsider consistent with our price-stability mandate.Over the course of 2019, the FOMC undertook a shift in the stance of monetary policy to offset some significant global growth headwinds and global disinflationary pressures. I believe this shift was well timed and has been providing support to the economy and helping to keep the U.S. outlook on track. Monetary policy is in a good place and should continue to support sustained growth, a strong labor market, and inflation returning to our symmetric 2 percent objective. As long as incoming information about the economy remains broadly consistent with this outlook, the current stance of monetary policy likely will remain appropriate.That said, monetary policy is not on a preset course. The Committee will proceed on a meeting-by-meeting basis and will be monitoring the effects of our recent policy actions along with other information bearing on the outlook as we assess the appropriate path of the target range for the federal funds rate. Of course, if developments emerge that, in the future, trigger a material reassessment of our outlook, we will respond accordingly.In January 2019, my FOMC colleagues and I affirmed that we aim to operate with an ample level of bank reserves in the U.S. financialsystem. And in October, we announced and began to implement a program to address pressures in repurchase agreement (repo) markets that became evident in September. To that end, we have been purchasing Treasury bills and conducting both overnight and term repurchase operations. These efforts have been successful in achieving stable money market conditions, including over theyear-end. As our bill purchases continue to build reserves toward levels that we associate with ample conditions, we intend to gradually transition away from the active use of repo operations. And as reserves reach durably ample levels, we intend to slow the pace of purchases such that our balance sheet grows in line with trend demand for our liabilities. Let me emphasize that we stand ready to adjust the details of this program as appropriate and in line with our goal, which is to keep the federal funds rate in the target range desired by the FOMC, and that these operations are technical measures not intended to change the stance of monetary policy. Finally, allow me to offer a few words about the FOMC's review of the monetary policy strategy, tools, and communication practices that we commenced in 2019. This review—with public engagement unprecedented in scope for us—is the first of its kind for the FederalReserve. Through 14 Fed Listens events, including a research conference in Chicago, we have been hearing a range of perspectives not only from academic experts, but also from representatives of consumer, labor, community, business, and other groups. We are drawing on these insights as we assess how best to achieve and maintain maximum employment and price stability. In July, we began discussing topics associated with the review at regularly scheduled FOMC meetings. We will continue reporting on our discussions in the minutes of FOMC meetings and will share our conclusions with the public when we complete the review later this year.Thank you very much for your time and attention. I look forward to the conversation and the question-and-answer session to follow.。