国际金融 第3章1

第三章外汇衍生产品市场外汇远期交易:本质上是一种预约买卖外汇的交易.买卖双方签订合同，约定买卖外汇的币种、数额、汇率和交割时间.到规定的交割日期或在约定的交割期内，按照合同规定条件完成交割.通常来说买方会交纳10%的保证金1外汇远期交易分类A定期外汇远期交易:固定交割日期双方在成交时就确定了未来交割日期B择期外汇远期交易:不固定交割日期在零售外汇市场上，银行在约定期限内给予客户交割日选择权，从成交后的第三个营业日起至约定日期止，期间的任何一天。

2交易主体和期限合约买入者(需求者),进口商、外币债务人、外汇远期看涨的投机者合约卖出者(供应者),出口商、外币债权人、外汇远期看跌的投机者期限：按月来计，3个月；1-6个月；1年3基本特征:场外交易,没有标准化的透明性的条款违约风险显著,可能要求合约对手方提供担保到期前不能转让，合约签订时无价值,外汇远期只是一种约定，既非资产也非负债4定期外汇远期交易--报价方法A远期汇率直接报价法:外汇银行直接报远期汇率瑞士、日本等国采用此法B远期差价报价法:外汇银行在即期汇率之外，标出远期升贴水.也可采用报标准远期升贴水的做法C掉期率报价法:外汇银行在即期汇率之外，标出掉期率5择期远期汇率的确定择期交易为客户提供外汇交割灵活性，但银行会选择对自己有利的汇率范围进行报价。

6利率平价定理:如果两种相似金融工具的预期收益不同，资金就从一种工具转移到另一种工具相似金融工具的预期收益率相等时达到均衡7国际金融套利：如果经过汇率调整，一国某种金融工具的预期收益率仍高于另一国相似金融工具，资金就会跨国移动R h - R f=F-S/S 若相等，就不存在套利活动Rh为本国利率Rf为外国利率F为远期利率S即期利率两种货币的远期升贴水率近似等于利率差，利率较高的货币远期有贴水，反之也成立。

8外汇远期交易的应用远期交易的目的：转嫁风险，套期保值；投机赚钱；套利（1）套期保值：进出口商从订立贸易契约到支付货款，通常要经过一段时间，才能获得外汇收入或是支付外汇款项。

Chapter 3The International Monetary SystemQuestions3-1. The Gold Standard and the Money Supply. Under the gold standard all national governments promised to follow the “rules of the game.” This meant defending a fixed exchange rate. What did this promise imply about a country’s money supply?A country’s money supply was limited to the amount of gold held by its central bank or treasury.For example, if a country had 1,000,000 ounces of gold and its fixed rate of exchange was100 local currency units per ounce of gold, that country could have 100,000,000 local currencyunits outstanding. Any change in its holdings of gold needed to be matched by a change in thenumber of local currency units outstanding.3-2. Causes of Devaluation. If a country follows a fixed exchange rate regime, what macroeconomic variables could cause the fixed exchange rate to be devalued?The following macroeconomic variables could cause the fixed exchange rate to be devalued:•An interest rate that is too low compared to other competing currencies• A continuing balance of payments deficit•An inflation rate consistently higher than in other countries.3-3. Fixed versus Flexible Exchange Rates. What are the advantages and disadvantages of fixed exchange rates?•Fixed rates provide stability in international prices for the conduct of trade. Stable prices aid in the growth of international trade and lessen risks for all businesses.•Fixed exchange rates are inherently anti-inflationary, requiring the country to follow restrictive monetary and fiscal policies. This restrictiveness, however, can often be a burden to a countrywishing to pursue policies that alleviate continuing internal economic problems, such as highunemployment or slow economic growth.•Fixed exchange rate regimes necessitate that central banks maintain large quantities of international reserves (hard currencies and gold) for use in the occasional defense of the fixedrate. As international currency markets have grown rapidly in size and volume, increasingreserve holdings has become a significant burden to many nations.•Fixed rates, once in place, may be maintained at rates that are inconsistent with economic fundamentals. As the structure of a nation’s economy changes, and as its trade relationshipsand balances evolve, the exchange rate itself should change. Flexible exchange rates allow thisto happen gradually and efficiently, but fixed rates must be changed administratively—usuallytoo late, too highly publicized, and at too large a one-time cost to the nation’s economic health.Chapter 3 The International Monetary System 13 3-4. The Impossible Trinity. Explain what is meant by the term impossible trinity and why it is true.•Countries with floating rate regimes can maintain monetary independence and financial integration but must sacrifice exchange rate stability.•Countries with tight control over capital inflows and outflows can retain their monetary independence and stable exchange rate, but surrender being integrated with the world’scapital markets.•Countries that maintain exchange rate stability by having fixed rates give up the ability to have an independent monetary policy.3-5. Currency Board or Dollarization. Fixed exchange rate regimes are sometimes implemented through a currency board (Hong Kong) or dollarization (Ecuador). What is the difference between the two approaches?In a currency board arrangement, the country issues its own currency but that currency is backed 100% by foreign exchange holdings of a hard foreign currency—usually the U.S. dollar.In dollarization, the country abolishes its own currency and uses a foreign currency, such asthe U.S. dollar, for all domestic transactions.3-6. Emerging Market Exchange Rate Regimes. High capital mobility is forcing emerging market nations to choose between free-floating regimes and currency board or dollarization regimes. What are the main outcomes of each of these regimes from the perspective of emerging market nations?There is no doubt that for many emerging markets a currency board, dollarization, and freely-floating exchange rate regimes are all extremes. In fact, many experts feel that the global financial marketplace will drive more and more emerging market nations towards one of these extremes. As illustrated by Exhibit 3.6 (in the chapter and reproduced here), there is a distinct lack of “middle ground” left between rigidly fixed and freely floating. In anecdotal support of this argument,a poll of the general population in Mexico in 1999 indicated that 9 out of 10 people would preferdollarization over a floating-rate peso. Clearly, there are many in the emerging markets of theworld who have little faith in their leadership and institutions to implement an effective exchange rate policy.14 Eiteman/Stonehill/Moffett •Multinational Business Finance, Twelfth Edition3-7. Argentine Currency Board. How did the Argentine currency board function from 1991 to January 2002 and why did it collapse?Argentina’s currency board exchange regime of fixing the value of its peso on a one-to-one basis with the U.S. dollar ended for several reasons.•As the U.S. dollar strengthened against other major world currencies, including the euro, during the 1990s, Argentine export prices rose vis-à-vis the currencies of its major trading partners.•This problem was aggravated by the devaluation of the Brazilian real in the late 1990s.•These two problems, in turn, led to continued trade deficits and a loss of foreign exchange reserves by the Argentine central bank. (4) This problem, in turn, led Argentine residents toflee from the peso and into the dollar, further worsening Argentina’s ability to maintain itsone-to-one peg.Euro.On January 4, 1999, eleven member states of the European Union initiated the3-8. TheEuropean Monetary Union (EMU) and established a single currency, the euro, which replacedthe individual currencies of participating member states. Describe three of the main ways thatthe euro affects the members of the EMU.The euro affects markets in three ways: (1) countries within the euro zone enjoy cheaper transaction costs; (2) currency risks and costs related to exchange rate uncertainty are reduced; and (3) allconsumers and businesses both inside and outside the euro zone enjoy price transparency andincreased price-based competition.The United Kingdom, Denmark, and Sweden have chosen not to adopt the euro but 3-9. Maveri c ks.rather maintain their individual currencies. What are the motivations of each of these three countries that are also members of the European Union?The United Kingdom chose not to adopt the euro because of the extensive use of the U.K. pound in international trade and financial transactions. London is still the world’s most importantfinancial center. The British are also very proud of their long tradition in financial matters when “Britannia ruled the waves.” They are afraid that monetary and financial matters may eventually migrate to Frankfurt where the European Central Bank is located. The British are also worriedabout continued concentration of decision making in Brussels where the main European Unioninstitutions are located.Denmark is also worried about losing its economic independence as a small country surrounded by big neighbors. Denmark’s currency, the krone, is mostly tied to the euro anyway, so it does not suffer a misalignment with the primary currency unit of the surrounding economies. Sweden has strong economic ties to Denmark, Norway, and the United Kingdom, none of which adopted the euro so far. Sweden, like the others, is afraid of over-concentration of power within EuropeanUnion institutions.Despite popular fears and a certain amount of nationalism, all three countries have strong forces within that would like these countries to adopt the euro. This would usually require popularreferendums, so you may see them adopt the euro in the future.Chapter 3 The International Monetary System 15 3-10. International Monetary Fund (IMF). The IMF was established by the Bretton Woods Agreement (1944). What were its original objectives?The IMF was established to render temporary assistance to member countries trying to defend the value of their currencies against cyclical, seasonal, or random occurrences. Additionally it was to assist countries having structural trade problems. More recently it has attempted to help countries, such as Russia, Brazil, Argentina, and Indonesia, to resolve financial crises.3-11. Special Drawing Rights. What are Special Drawing Rights?The Special Drawing Right (SDR) is an international reserve asset created by the IMF to supplement existing foreign exchange reserves. It serves as a unit of account for the IMF and other international and regional organizations and is also the base against which some countries peg the exchangerate for their currencies.Defined initially in terms of a fixed quantity of gold, the SDR has been redefined several times.It is currently the weighted value of currencies of the five IMF members having the largest exports of goods and services. Individual countries hold SDRs in the form of deposits in the IMF. These holdings are part of each country’s international monetary reserves, along with official holdings of gold, foreign exchange, and its reserve position at the IMF. Members may settle transactionsamong themselves by transferring SDRs.3-12. Exchange Rate Regime Classifications. The IMF classifies all exchange rate regimes into eight specific categories that are summarized in this chapter. Under which exchange rate regime would you classify each of the following countries?a. France: Exchange arrangements with no separate legal tender.b. The United States: independent floating.c. Japan: independent floating.d. Thailand: managed floating with no pre-announced path for the exchange rate. Prior to theAsian Crisis of 1997 it was tied to the U.S. dollar.3-13. The Ideal Currency. What are the attributes of the ideal currency?If the ideal currency existed in today’s world, it would possess three attributes (illustrated inExhibit 3.4), often referred to as The Impossible Trinity.a.Exchange rate stability. The value of the currency would be fixed in relationship to othermajor currencies so traders and investors could be relatively certain of the foreign exchangevalue of each currency in the present and into the near future.b. Full financial integration. Complete freedom of monetary flows would be allowed, so tradersand investors could willingly and easily move funds from one country and currency to anotherin response to perceived economic opportunities or risks.c. Monetary independen c e. Domestic monetary and interest rate policies would be set by eachindividual country to pursue desired national economic policies, especially as they mightrelate to limiting inflation, combating recessions, and fostering prosperity and full employment.The reason that it is termed The Impossible Trinity is that a country must give up one of the three goals described by the sides of the triangle, monetary independence, exchange rate stability, orfull financial integration. The forces of economics do not allow the simultaneous achievement of all three.16 Eiteman/Stonehill/Moffett •Multinational Business Finance, Twelfth Edition3-14. Bretton Woods Failure. Why did the fixed exchange rate regime of 1945–1973 eventually fail?The fixed exchange rate regime of 1945–1973 failed because of widely diverging nationalmonetary and fiscal policies, differential rates of inflation, and various unexpected externalshocks. The U.S. dollar was the main reserve currency held by central banks and was the key to the web of exchange rate values. The United States ran persistent and growing deficits in itsbalance of payments, which required a heavy outflow of dollars to finance the deficits. Eventually the heavy overhang of dollars held by foreigners forced the United States to devalue the dollarbecause the United States was no longer able to guarantee conversion of dollars into its diminishing store of gold.3-15. EU and Euro Expansion. With so many new countries joining the European Union in 2004, when will they officially move to the euro—if ever?In January 2007 two more countries were added to the EU’s growing membership—Bulgaria and Romania. Their entry was little more than two years after the EU had added 10 more countriesto its ranks. As illustrated by Global Finance in Practice 3.2, to date only one of these new12 members has actually adopted the euro. Although all members are expected to eventuallyreplace their currencies with the euro, recent years have seen growing debates and continualpostponements by the new members in moving toward full euro adoption.。

第三章金融工具、金融市场和金融机构金融市场和其他市场基本相同。

就像在卡萨布兰卡和阿姆斯特丹的跳蚤市场以及伦敦和苏黎世的黄金市场，人们买入卖出，讨价还价，最后成功或失败。

在金融市场上，人们可以买卖证券，如股票和债券，一种不像手镯和黄金那样以有形资产存在却一样有价值的资产。

在本章中，我们拟介绍金融工具和金融机构。

但在详细介绍之前，我们先看一下本章整体的框架。

3.1 资金流动所有的金融机构必须提供一种机制，资金可以通过这种机制从资金充足的储蓄者流入到资金短缺的借款人手里。

虽然金融机构因国家而异，但都是有两种基本的传导机制来实现该过程。

资金可以直接通过金融市场或者间接通过我们所说的金融中介机构的中介市场流动。

图3.1描述的过程被称为资金流动。

资金从左向右流动，而金融债权由右向左流动。

当资金通过金融市场流动时，借款消费者出售金融债权如股票和债券给贷款人。

在这种情况下，贷款人和借款人之间联系是“直接”的，因为资金从贷款人流向借款人，而证券从借款人流向贷款人。

金融中介机构图3.1 从贷款人向借款人的资金流向当资金通过中介机构流动时，这个过程就是“间接”的。

这是因为贷款人购买金融中介机构发行的金融债权，然后，金融中介机构购买借款人发行的金融债权。

例如，贷款人（储蓄者）购买银行存单，而银行可以发放商业贷款，就像是购买一个商业公司的商业票据（如欠条）。

这里贷款人不直接购买商业贷款，而是以存款的形式投资于银行间接地提供资金。

此外，金融中介机构从金融市场购买证券，例如一家人寿保险公司购买公司债券。

因此，你会注意到在图3.1中，金融中介机构和金融市场之间有一个箭头。

通过各种各样的方法、金融工具和金融机构，金融系统将数百万的资金转移到需要更多资金的借款人手中。

资金可以通过金融市场和金融中介市场这两个渠道，从资金盈余者手里转移到资金需求者手里。

储户贷款者将获利，因为他们可以从借出的资金中赚取利息和股息红利。

借款消费者也将受益，因为他们获得了投资所需的资金，否则将无法进行融资（可能投资赚取的收益超过支付的利息）。