经济学人全球面临债务危机中国为何能全身而退You can find bubbliness in bits of American finance,including the corporate-b ond market, and somenasty off-balance-sheet liabilities like student loansand public-sector pensions, but America does notlook like a source of imminent trouble.你可以在美国金融里找到泡沫碎片，包括证券市场，和一些严重的表外负债，像学生贷款和公共部门养老金，但是美国看起来并不会产生迫在眉睫的麻烦。
Britain and Japan have changed less. Abenomics has improved Japan's prosp ects, butgovernment debt is still close to 250% of GDP.英国和日本改变较少。
安备经济学已提高日本的经济预期但是，政府债务仍相当于GDP的250%左右。
In Britain the combination of budget cuts and weak private investment has produced a recovery that is built on the same ingredients—particularly rising house prices—that caused thelast bust.在英国，预算减少与个人投资力弱双重作用之下，催生了建立在相同因素上的复苏--尤其是不断上涨的房价---这引发了最后的破产。
Britain is not about to fell the world economy, but growth that was based mo re on investment,both public and private, would be an awful lot safer.英国并不打算让世界经济雪上加霜，但基于更多公共和私人投资的增长将极其缓慢。
[2011.05.26]Time for a change 改变的时刻Why a euro-zone finance minister, even a talented one, should not lead the IMF为什么欧元区的财政部长，即使能力超群，也不应该入主国际货币基金组织OFFICIALL Y the search for a new head of the IMF, to replace Dominique Strauss-Kahn, who awaits trial on charges of sexual assault, has barely begun. The fund’s member governments have until June 10th to propose candidates, after which a shortlist will be drawn up. But in practice the race seems all but over. That is because European countries, which hold over a third of the votes on the IMF’s board, have rallied around a single contender: France’s finance minister, Christine Lagarde.原国际货币基金组织（IMF）总裁多米尼克•斯特劳斯-卡恩目前因面临性侵犯指控留监候审。
从正式角度讲，该组织寻找新老板来接替卡恩的工作才刚刚开始。
IMF的成员国政府要到6月10日才会提名候选人，最后候选人名单将随后出炉。
但实际上，这场角逐看似已近尾声，因为拥有IMF三分之一以上投票权的欧洲国家都力挺一个竞争者：法国财政部长克里斯蒂娜•拉加德。
In contrast, emerging economies,which have long argued that the fund should have a non-European boss, have so far conspicuously failed to fix on an alternative candidate. The Americans, kingmakers in this contest, have said little in public but in private seem happy with Ms Lagarde, not least because they hope to keep both the deputy’s job at the fund and the presidency of the World Bank. Barring embarrassments, one French politician is likely to succeed another.恰恰相反的是，新兴经济体一直嚷嚷着该组织应该推选一位非欧洲籍的总裁，但很明显的是，他们至今未能物色到其他候选人。
欧债危机名词解释欧洲债务危机(European Debt Crisis欧洲债务危机(European Debt Crisis，简称“欧债危机”)是指欧洲主权债务危机，主要是指希腊、爱尔兰、葡萄牙、西班牙和意大利等国家的债务危机，严重者甚至危及整个欧元区。
自2009年7月始，以希腊为首的欧洲债务危机迅速恶化。
2009年10月，欧盟向希腊发放近6000亿欧元救助贷款，但2010年3月，欧洲中央银行就警告希腊，如果不能改革金融市场和采取紧缩措施，将很难获得进一步的资金支持。
同时，西班牙、葡萄牙和意大利也纷纷效仿希腊，推出了规模巨大的经济改革方案，以赢得更多援助资金。
但与此同时，其他成员国却未能出台类似的经济刺激计划，导致危机进一步恶化。
2010年5月，希腊再次提高借款利率，令该国经济前景雪上加霜。
同月，希腊政府决定向国际货币基金组织寻求约5000亿欧元的援助。
在美国的压力下，国际货币基金组织于6月同意向希腊提供总额5600亿欧元的紧急贷款，并随即开始讨论下一步援助计划。
这样，国际货币基金组织向希腊提供的总额度约1万亿欧元的援助资金正式生效。
然而，国际货币基金组织的救助行动对于解决希腊问题显然是杯水车薪。
7月23日，欧盟领导人最终宣布，将对希腊实施更为严厉的制裁，这直接引爆了欧元区的信任危机。
8月3日，德国总理默克尔表示，已准备好进一步实施财政紧缩措施。
11月30日，爱尔兰方面传来噩耗：该国主权信用评级被国际评级机构穆迪下调至投机垃圾级。
一系列的连锁反应开始显现： 10月26日，西班牙股市出现跳水； 10月28日，葡萄牙比塞塔失守10%； 11月2日，意大利银行业恐慌情绪蔓延； 11月4日，希腊股市创出历史新低，国际货币基金组织随后宣布对希腊实施为期三个月的紧急援助，涉及金额3500亿欧元； 11月18日，欧盟委员会批准了规模为9000亿欧元的紧急救援计划； 11月19日，德国马歇尔计划开始实施。
欧洲债务危机（European debt crisis）The root of the European debt crisis:(1) the excessive debt of government and private sector over borrowing is the direct cause of the crisis. In addition to Spain and Portugal have experienced a net savings surplus in 1990s, five PIIGS were in debt investment in 1980 to 2009 years. Long term debt investment has led to huge government deficits. The European Union's stability and growth pact stipulates that the government's fiscal deficit should not exceed 3% of GDP, while the government deficit has increased sharply in the 2007~2009 years since the onset and early outbreak of the crisis. In the case of Greece, on the eve of the euro from 2001 to 2008 the average annual debt crisis, Greece deficit reached 5%, while the euro zone data is only 2%; Greece's current-account deficit 9% annual output in the euro area data is only 1%. In 2009, Greece's debt to GDP ratio was as high as 115%, and the country that used to overdraw the future has gradually lost its capital to continue borrowing. These problems are prevalent in the PIIGS five countries. With the deepening of European integration, some level of economic development in Greece and Portugal as the representative of the low countries, wages, social welfare, unemployment benefits and other aspects gradually to par with developed countries such as Germany, France, the expenditure level of excess domestic output more and more. Since wages and social welfare are difficult to adjust downward after rising, the so-called "Stickiness" leads to a rising debt ratio between the government and the private sector. The causes of debt problems in Spain and Ireland are slightly different from those in greece. The two countries were affected by the subprime mortgage crisis, the real estate market rapidlydepressed, a large number of bad debts appeared in the domestic banking system, and eventually formed a banking crisis. And the government's ability to borrow and repay debt is a problem in the process of bailing out the banking sector. At this point, the five governments that already have huge debts have no better ability to lend further, and the government credit can not make investors feel relieved to act as creditors. Investors generally regard 6% as a warning value of sovereign debt crisis, and once that exceeds this level, the country will face sovereign debt crisis. The debt problem in Italy is relatively optimistic in the PIIGS five countries, but the current 10 year treasury bond yield is close to 6%. In addition to Italy, the PIIGS five countries in 2009 the government deficit has been several times the warning value of 3%. When huge government budget deficits cannot be compensated by new debt, the debt crisis will inevitably erupt.(2) the income distribution system of deformity has accumulateda great deal of crisis. After the Second World War, European countries have set up the social income distribution system and social security system with high welfare. One is from the wage level, the European countries known as the "high salary", even in poorer countries such as Greece in Europe, social wage growth has been, although the GDP growth rate has remained at 1% ~ 2%, the real wage growth has been higher than 5%, reached 8%, 4 percentage points higher than in European countries 2008. The two is from the social welfare perspective, countries including the establishment of child allowances, sick leave allowance, health and education, housing, unemployment, pension insurance, funeral subsidies and other welfare system, covering all aspects of social life. In particular, the huge subsidy for theunemployed has become an important drag on the government's finances. The unemployment rate in Greece, for example, is around 10%, which is not the highest in Europe, but for a relatively thin country, unemployment relief is a heavy pressure. The Greeks still enjoy the most expensive pension system in the world today. Retired workers enjoy 96% of pre retirement income, and pension benefits are among the top 30 in the richest countries in OECD. The large population of unemployed also limits the increase of government revenue, and the total tax revenue in Greece has maintained 40% of GDP,Years have not increased, but spending has increased year by year. This kind of fiscal income barely keeps up with the rising wage and welfare, and the abnormal income distribution system brings more and more pressure to the government finance, and the hidden danger of the crisis is accumulating constantly.(3) the government dereliction of duty and system defects of PIIGS countries experienced such a serious crisis, slow, or not as indiscriminate government five prescription "of the blame. Although the five governments performed differently in the crisis and in the crisis, their dereliction of duty was an important factor in the crisis. First of all, in order to pursue short-term interests, please the people and public opinion survey in the general election, the government adopts the "obscurantism", take "harm than good behavior. The Greek government, for example, hid large amounts of financial deficits before 2009.Second, some governments try to evade regulatory sanctions between the European Commission and the European Central Bankin various ways. Germany, France and other economic development "leader" was a negative example in this regard, and other countries have followed suit. Again, in Ireland and Spain as the representative of the national government allowed the domestic economy bubble, once the bubble burst, and spend a lot of money to help taxpayers virtual economy, resulting in economic structure distortion. Finally, the head of government is overcautious, did not dare to take decisive measures to nip the crisis in the bud". The Italy government, for example, failed to take decisive action when the deficit reached 5.3% in 2009, but only delayed it, which led to the escalation of the crisis.(4) the defects of the euro zone system and the institutional defects of the euro zone are also evident in this crisis. First of all, according to the system design of the euro area, the member states do not have the right to issue currency, nor do they have independent monetary policy. The European Central Bank is responsible for currency issuance and monetary policy implementation in the whole region. In the process of European economic integration, the unification of the currency to countries in the region to enjoy the many benefits in the economic recession, this arrangement can promote regional and international trade development, reduce the macro transaction cost. However, in a storm, the crisis of the country cannot to implement monetary policies, and thus unable to devalue the currency to reduce the debt scale and to increase the international competitiveness of export products, only through austerity and raising taxes such as total demand to increase the compression of debt financing, which makes the already ailing economy one disaster after another. The president ofIceland recently pointed out that Iceland is able to rebound quickly from bankruptcy, because the government and the central bank to be able to own the currency devaluation to promote exports, this is any euro zone countries are unable to enjoy the "welfare policy". The British government has repeatedly reiterated that it will not join the euro zone. To sum up, Europe and the United States and other developed countries are burdened with more and more heavy debt burden, the main factors are not to be ignored:First, the social security, health care and other social welfare expenditures continue to grow, the financial burden is increasingly heavy;Two is affected by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, the government used to save financial institutions and stimulate economic growth in fiscal spending increased substantially;The three is due to the negative impact of the U.S. subprime crisis is not eliminated, Europe and the United States actually slow economic growth, fiscal revenue growth rate is severely damaged, causing public debt sustainability and safety questioned by the market. European debt crisis solutions and solutions and future trendsSolutions to European debt crisis and future trends:Crisis countries have been unable to solve their own chronic illness by themselves, and the aid programs and efforts of neighboring countries and institutions will determine the course of the crisis to a large extent. As the largest sovereigncountry in the euro area, Germany's willingness to rescue and aid to the crisis countries will become an important factor in the development of the crisis. As mentioned above, the economic and financial situation in Germany is gradually recovering, and the prospects are more optimistic,So Germany has the power to help countries in crisis. From another point of view, the stable and harmonious euro zone is an important guarantee for German economic growth, and Germany itself has been unable to dissociate itself from the euro area.On the one hand, the European monetary integration is an irreversible process, which determines the German difficult to withdraw from the euro area; on the other hand, Germany could not let the crisis country's problems while standing on the sidelines, system integration is destined to "pull one hair and the whole body", is the only common development the only way out.So Germany has a willingness to bail out countries with crisis. Although the German domestic disputes on the issue of aid continued, but only truly to the crisis countries to lend a helping hand, just in line with Germany's own interests. In the middle of July 2011, after the fierce debate at home, the German government announced that it would coordinate with the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to determine the second round of rescue plans for greece. Although the domestic situation in France is not optimistic in Germany, the situation is similar. If Germany and France can further work together on the issue of aid, then the rescue process will likely be greatly shortened. In the rescue process, theEuropean Central Bank, the European Commission, the International Monetary Fund and other institutions have put forward solutions to crisis countries, to lend a helping hand. Greece, Ireland and Portugal have all applied to the European Commission for aid, and the rescue program is in the making or early stage of implementation. Aid to Ireland by these organizations is a more successful case.At the end of 2010, Ireland reached an agreement with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund to accept 85 billion euros of aid. According to the agreement, the International Monetary Fund, the European Commission and the European Central Bank's joint review group will be a quarterly review of the Irish Financial and economic situation and promote the effectiveness of the rescue plan. In mid July 2011, the review showed that the rescue plan on schedule, the use of funds, the Irish government implemented the relevant measures stipulated in the agreement, the industry wage for some useful adjustment, especially the adjustment of some of the current unemployment rate is high for the industry wage structure. These adjustments have positive significance for the recovery of macroeconomic supply level. After the review, Ireland will receive another 4 billion euros of bailout money. In the long run, the rescue of the crisis depends not only on external aid, but also on the direction and effort of the crisis countries themselves. Previously, the investment and consumption patterns of these countries in crisis leads to excessive overdraft crisis staged, and the government not only failed to carry out proper guidance in the policy system, and even the fire in the wrong direction "".If these countries can not "means", still maintain beyond their output capacity range of consumer spending, even temporarily survived the crisis, the future will also appear in a series of problems caused by the deficit. After the baptism of the crisis, the euro area must be more cautious, strict and perfect in system construction, rules making, policy implementation and so on. Previously, the European Central Bank has been unable to formulate policies for specific countries in the region, and seems to be rigid and lagging behind in formulating policies for curbing inflation and ensuring economic growth. Before the European debt crisis, the ECB's untimely policy was considered a catalyst for the crisis.In the United States subprime crisis swept the world in July 2008, the European Central Bank, despite the vulnerability of the eurozone economy, the benchmark interest rate increased from 4% to 4.25%, so that some countries had overwhelmed the financial and real estate industry in the "besieged on all sides of the situation, and a large area of bad debts of the real estate industry will inevitably affect the financial industry.In addition, the European Central Bank has a large number of bonds held by member states. Three small economies, Greece, Ireland and Portugal, are in crisis,The amount of treasury bonds held by the European Central Bank is 47 billion euros, 19 billion euros and 21 billion euros respectively. Therefore, the solvency of Member States is closely related to the central bank itself. It is believed that after the crisis, the core macroeconomic management institutions represented by the ECB will conduct a moreprofound self-examination, which will be conducive to the long-term and healthy development of the entire euro area.。
