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2010年第三季度国际经济观察2010-10-252010年三季度，各发达国家经济有复苏迹象。
但发达经济体虽然走上了经济复苏的道路，但未来经济仍面临许多不确定因素，确保金融稳定、继续巩固财政状况仍是各国下一季度经济工作的重点。
一、经济出现复苏迹象，未来前景仍需观察1.美国经济温和复苏随着2009年全球的V字反弹的结束，今年以来，美国的经济增速明显放缓。
三季度美国GDP增长2%，比二季度提升0.3个百分点，呈温和复苏态势。
其中，私人投资和政府投资仍然呈下滑态势；消费方面，消费者支出微幅上升，但消费者信心依然不高，消费者对价格依旧敏感，消费限于必需品；商品与服务的出口也继续下滑，但下降幅度在缩小。
图1：美国2007年以来GDP季度环比增长率单位：%资料来源：国研网国研数据图2：美国消费信贷指数单位：%资料来源：国研网国研数据8月份工业生产指数小幅回落至93.2，工业生产同比增速继续下滑，工业部门扩张力度放缓。
制造业PMI连续第四个月的下滑，但非制造业PMI回升，服务业表现较制造业为佳。
美国产能利用率依然不高，目前仅为危机前水平的85%左右。
订单方面，耐用品订单下滑幅度超过全部工业品订单的降幅，耐用品工业生产未来依然低迷，工业增速在此影响下将继续回落。
图3：美国GDP、消费、投资和出口折年率季度同比增长单位：%资料来源：国研网国研数据从产能利用率来看，相较于二季度，三季度美国各月的产能利用率有所提高，但与1972-2009年的均值相比较，仍有较大差距，说明美国经济仍未完全复苏。
图4：2010年美国产能利用率对比资料来源：国研网国研数据尽管美国三季度经济增长数据好过预期，但市场仍然担心，经济复苏能否得以延续。
根据美国劳工部公布的最新数据显示，2010年9月，美国失业率仍然维持在9.6％的高位，9月份政府部门总就业人数减少159,000人，降幅最大。
这其中不仅包括联邦政府解雇的77,000名人口普查员，还包括州及地方政府因预算压力而裁减的76,000名雇员。
2010年世界人口状况报告（最终五篇）第一篇：2010年世界人口状况报告2010年世界人口状况报告》预测，到2050年，世界人口将超过90亿，人口过亿的国家将增至17个，印度将取代中国成为世界人口第一大国。
报告显示，到2050年世界人口将增至91.5亿，比目前增加22.41亿。
其中非洲地区人口将从现在的10.33亿增至19.85亿，增幅最大；亚洲地区的人口也将有较大幅度的增长，将从目前的41.67亿增至52.32亿；而欧洲人口将从目前的7.33亿减至6.91亿，将是唯一人口减少的大洲。
报告说，目前全世界共有11个国家人口过亿。
其中中国人口最多，达到13.54亿，其次为人口12.15亿的印度。
其他人口过亿的国家依次为美国、印度尼西亚、巴西、巴基斯坦、孟加拉国、尼日利亚、俄罗斯、日本和墨西哥。
报告预测，到2050年时，刚果(金)、埃及、埃塞俄比亚、坦桑尼亚这4个非洲国家以及亚洲的菲律宾和越南也将人口过亿。
届时，印度的人口将增至16.14亿，成为世界第一人口大国；中国人口将增至14.17亿，退居第二。
目前，世界人口总数为69.09亿，其中只有12.37亿人生活在较发达地区。
2011年《新兴经济体蓝皮书》在京发布年新兴经济体蓝皮书》2011年04月07日 14:26 来源：中国经济网 [我要发表评论] [推荐朋友] [打印本稿]中国经济网北京4月7日讯（记者陈郁）中国经济网记者了解到，社科文献出版社今天在京举办了“金砖国家崛起与全球发展及治理”研讨暨2011年《新兴经济体蓝皮书》发布会。
会议探讨了新兴经济体的发展变化规律和全球发展与治理变革的新趋势，并正式发布了新兴经济体蓝皮书《金砖国家经济社会发展报告(2011)》。
金砖国家赶超发达国家势头明显整体平均增长率超8%，远高于发达国家整体平均增长率超，远高于发达国家2.6%的平均增长率的平均增长率蓝皮书指出，近十多年来，金砖国家发展迅速：经济增长速度较快，经济规模世界排位提升，对发达国家赶超效果明显；对世界经济增长贡献率提高、国际经济影响力提升等。
中国的人口与人力资源一、中国人口概况及其基本特征中国人口众多，在世界各国中位居首位。
根据国家统计局公布的数据，截止2012年12月31日，中国大陆总人口（包括31个省、自治区、直辖市和中国人民解放军现役军人，不包括香港、澳门特别行政区和台湾省以及海外华侨人数）13亿5404万人，比上年末增加669万人。
中国人口现状具有以下基本特征：1、人口总量大。
根据有关数据，截止到2012年12月31日，世界总人口为70.9亿，其中中国人口为13.54亿，占世界总人口的19.10%。
图表 1 2012年中国人口占世界人口百分比（右图）图表 2 2012年世界人口排名前十位的国家人口基本情况：246810121416中国印度美国巴西俄罗斯日本0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%图表 3 2012年世界部分主要国家人口及其占世界总人口的百分比2、新增人口多。
2012年，我国净增人口669万。
其中，出生人口1635万人，人口出生率为12.10‰，比上年提高0.17个千分点；死亡人口966万人，人口死亡率为7.15‰，比上年提高0.01个千分点；人口自然增长率为4.95‰，比上年提高0.16个千分点。
3、人口素质偏低。
中国文盲人口依然众多，依据2010年第六次全国人口普查统计数据显示，中国文盲人口（15岁及以上不识字的人）达54656573人，占全国总人口的比重为4.08%。
每10万人中具有大学文化程度的为8930人；具有高中文化程度的为14032人；具有初中文化程度的为38788人；具有小学文化程度的为26779人。
大学生比例，中国与其他世界大国也存在很大差距。
罗斯拿大色列本国国大利亚国国图表 4 中国与世界部分国家大学生比例4、农村人口偏多，城市化率较低。
截止2012年底，我国城镇人口71182万人，乡村人口64222万人，城镇人口占总人口比重达到52.57%。
但相比于西方发达国家，我国农村人口依然偏多，城市化率较低。
2010Da tI n f o r m | e m p o w e r | a D va n c e | w w w.p r b.o rgMost PoPulous Countries , 2010 and 205020102050Country PoPulation (millions)India 1,748 China 1,437 United States 423 Pakistan 335 Nigeria 326 Indonesia 309 Bangladesh 222 Brazil 215 Ethiopia174 Congo, Dem. Rep.166Country PoPulation (millions)China 1,338 India 1,189 United States 310 Indonesia 235 Brazil 193 Pakistan 185 Bangladesh 164 Nigeria 158 Russia 142 Japan127Countries With the Youngest and oldest PoPulations, 2010younGEst % aGEs <15Niger 50.1Uganda 48.7Burkina Faso 46.4Congo, Dem. Rep.46.4Zambia 46.2Malawi 45.9Afghanistan 45.9Chad 45.6Somalia 44.9Tanzania44.7PoPulation CloCk , 2010WorlDmorE DEvEloPEDCountriEslEss DEvEloPEDCountriEsPopulation6,892,319,000 1,236,646,0005,655,673,000 Births perYear140,184,16914,215,211125,968,959Day 384,06638,946345,120Minute 26727240Deaths perYear56,907,60612,125,05544,782,552 Day 155,91133,219122,692Minute1082385Natural increase (births-deaths) perYear 83,276,563 2,090,15681,186,407 Day 228,1555,726222,429Minute 158 4 154 Infant deaths perYear6,383,531 80,133 6,303,398 Day 17,489220 17,270Minute120.212olDEst % aGEs 65+Japan 22.6Germany 20.5Italy 20.4Sweden 18.3Greece 18.3Portugal 17.9Bulgaria 17.6Austria 17.6Latvia 17.4Belgium17.4Today, Global Population Adds Another Billion at Record Rates.at some point around 1800, after untold millennia of human history, global population reached its first billion. the world’s population now grows by 1 billion about every 12 years. the 20th century began with 1.6 billion and, at the end of that century, those two numbers had simply reversed to 6.1 billion. if birth rates continue to decline in developing countries, the increase to 8 billion could take slightly longer.First BillionSecondThird Fourth Fifth Sixth Seventh Eighth S ource : Population Reference Bureau estimates and projections; and un Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision (2009).As Developed Countries Undergo Aging and Little Growth inPopulation Size, Developing Countries Remain Young and Growing.the population “pyramid” of the developed countries clearly shows the decline in the number of young people as a result of low birth rates. the two pyramids provide a comparable picture of the developed and developing countries in the size of their respective populations andS ource : un Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision (2009).AgePopulation (millions), 2010Age Population (millions), 2010DEVELOPED COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRIESage structure. in somedeveloped countries, the size of the youngest age group is barely more than half that of their parents’ age group. When the two population pyramids are compared, it is obviousthat virtually all futureworld population growthwill take place in thedeveloping countries. Butthe amount of growth these countries will expe-rience depends upon the degree to which couples in those countries choose to reduce family size and have access to family planning services.The Number of Working-Age Adults Available to Support an Older Person Is Declining Globally but Still Varies Substantially From Country to Country.Population aging puts pressure on a society’s ability to support its elderly citizens. A commonly used indicator of this pressure is the elderly support ratio, calculated as the number of working-age people ages 15 to 64 divided by the number of persons 65 or older. This ratioserves as a rough indicator of the number of potential providers of support per potential elderly dependent. In 1950, there were 12 working-age people for every elderly person in the world. By 2010, this ratio had declined to 9, with the largest decline occurring in more developed countries. But the ratios still vary substantially across countries. In 24 countries, mostly in Europe, there are fewer than 5 working-age people for every elderly person. The ratio is lowest in Japan, Italy, and Germany—at 3. The ratio is above 25 in seven countries, principally in sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East. By 2050, the ratio for the world is projected to decline by more than one-half—to 4, and Japan will have the lowest ratio of only 1 working-age adult per elderly person. The elderly support ratio will be below 5 in more than half of the world’s countries. By 2050, no country will have a ratio above 20.Less than 5Elderly Support Ratio (2010)Elderly Support Ratio (2050)Country ratioNiger 19Uganda 16Guatemala 7Pakistan 7Egypt 5India 5Morocco 4United States 3Mexico 3China 3France 2Japan1S ource : UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision (2009).the number of people age 65 or older in the united States will more than double from 40 million in 2010 to 89 million by 2050. Spending on Social Security and Medicare is projected to increase dramatically between now and 2050 as the number of people receiving benefits grows. the magnitude of this increased spending is illustrated by comparing the projected costs of these two programs with Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which measures the total output of the u.S. economy. in 1970, spending on Social Security and Medicaretotaled only about 4 percent of GDP , while by 2010 this share had risen to more than 8 percent of GDP . By 2030, Medicare expenditures12345678910Expenditures as a Percentage of GDP Spending as a Percentage of GDP201020302050Social Security 4.9 6.1 5.8Medicare 3.5 6.48.7Total8.4%12.5%14.5%As the U.S. Population Ages, Spending on Entitlement Programs Such as Social Security and Medicare Will Rise Sharply.S ource : u.S. Social Security administration, A Summary of the 2009 Annual Social Security and Medicare Trust Fund Reports (2009).Worldwide, 40 percent of the population, or more than 2.6 billion people, lack one of life’s basic needs: an adequate sanitation facility, defined as one that hygienically separates sewage from human contact. there are wide regional and rural-urban disparities, and theSub-Saharan AfricaPercent of Population Who Use Improved Sanitation (2008)South Central Asia East AsiaLatin America/Caribbean Southeast AsiaWestern Asia More DevelopedCountriesIn Many Parts of the World, Rural Populations Still Lack Adequate Sanitation.S ource : Regional estimates calculated by PRB based on data from the WHo/unicef Joint Monitoring Programme for Water Supply and Sanitation.are projected to exceed thosefor Social Security; by 2050, totalspending on these two programs is projected to reach almost 15 percentof GDP . the rapid growth in Medicare spending will be fueled by the risingcost and use of health care services, in addition to the increase in the number of people receiving benefits.bulk of the underserved livein rural areas of developingcountries. Much of the worldis making little progress toward meeting the MillenniumDevelopment Goal target tohalve the proportion of theworld’s population withoutaccess to basic sanitation by 2015. at the currentpace, the world will miss theMDG target for improvedsanitation by 13 percentagepoints: approximately 1 billionpeople who are targeted forimprovement will still lackaccess.NOTES(—) Indicates data unavailable or inapplicable.a Infant deaths per 1,000 live births. Ratesshown with decimals indicate national sta-tistics reported as completely registered,while those without are estimates fromthe sources cited on reverse. Rates shown in italics are based upon fewer than 50annual infant deaths and, as a result, aresubject to considerable yearly variability.b Average number of children born to awoman during her lifetime.c The number of people of “working age”(15-64), divided by those ages 65+.d The status of Western Sahara is disputedby Morocco.e Special Administrative Region.f Kosovo declared independence fromSerbia on Feb. 17, 2008. Serbia has notrecognized Kosovo’s independence.g The former Yugoslav Republic.h Includes Kosovo.* Data prior to 2004 are shown in italics.For additional notes and sources, see reverse side.Data prepared by PRB demographer Carl Haub.© July 2010. Population Reference Bureau.All rights reserved.ACkNOWLEDGMENTSThe author gratefully acknowledges the valuable assistance of PRB staff members Donna Clifton, Jennay Ghowrwal, Toshiko Kaneda, Mary Mederios Kent, Kata Fustos, and Will Thompson; staff of the Interna-tional Programs Center of the U.S. Census Bureau; the United Nations (UN) Population Division; the Institut national d’etudesdémographiques (INED), Paris; and the World Bank in the preparation of this year’s World Population Data Sheet. This publication is funded by the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, the David and Lucile Packard Foundation, the U.S. Agency for International Development (Cooperative Agreement GPO-A-00-03-00004-00), and supporters. The information in this Data Sheet was not provided by and does not represent the views of the United States government or the U.S. Agencyfor International Development.NOTESThe Data Sheet lists all geopolitical entities with populations of 150,000 or more and all members of the UN. These include sovereign states, dependencies, overseas departments, and some territories whose status or boundaries may be undetermined or in dispute. More developed regions, following the UN classification, comprise all of Europe and North America, plus Australia, Japan, and New Zealand. All other regions and countries are classified as less developed. The least developed countries consist of 49 countries with especially low incomes, high economic vulnerability, and poor human development indicators. The criteria and list of countries, as defined by the United Nations, can be found at /en/ldc/.Sub-Saharan Africa: All countries of Africa except the northern African countries of Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia, and Western Sahara.World and Regional Totals: Regional population totals are independently rounded and include small countries or areas not shown. Regional and world rates and per-centages are weighted averages of countries for which data are available; regional aver-ages are shown when data or estimates are available for at least three-quarters of the region’s population.World Population Data Sheets from different years should not be used as a time series. Fluctuations in values from year to year often reflect revisions based on new data or estimates rather than actual changes in levels. Additional information on likely trends and consistent time series can be obtained from PRB, and are also available in UN and U.S. Census Bureau publications and websites.SOURCESThe rates and figures are primarily compiledfrom the following sources: official countrystatistical yearbooks, bulletins, and websites;United Nations Demographic Yearbook, 2007of the UN Statistics Division; World PopulationProspects: The 2008 Revision of the UNPopulation Division; and the InternationalData Base of the International ProgramsCenter, U.S. Census Bureau. Other sourcesinclude recent demographic surveys suchas the Demographic and Health Surveys,Reproductive Health Surveys, special studies,and direct communication with demographersand statistical bureaus in the United Statesand abroad. Specific data sources may beobtained by contacting the author of the2010 World Population Data Sheet. Forcountries with complete registration of birthsand deaths, rates are those most recentlyreported. For more developed countries,nearly all vital rates refer to 2009 or 2008.DEFINITIONSMid-2010 PopulationEstimates are based on a recent census;official national data; or PRB, UN, and U.S.Census Bureau projections. The effectsof refugee movements, large numbers offoreign workers, and population shifts due tocontemporary political events are taken intoaccount to the extent possible.Birth and Death RateThe annual number of births and deathsper 1,000 total population. These rates areoften referred to as “crude rates” since theydo not take a population’s age structure intoaccount. Thus, crude death rates in moredeveloped countries, with a relatively largeproportion of high-mortality older population,are often higher than those in less developedcountries with lower life expectancy.Rate of Natural Increase (RNI)The birth rate minus the death rate, implying theannual rate of population growth without regardfor migration. Expressed as a percentage.Net MigrationThe estimated rate of net immigration(immigration minus emigration) per 1,000population for a recent year based uponthe official national rate or derived as aresidual from estimated birth, death, andpopulation growth rates. Migration ratescan vary substantially from year to year forany particular country, as can the definitionof an immigrant.2050 Population as a Multiple of 2010Projected populations based upon reason-able assumptions on the future course offertility, mortality, and migration. Projectionsare based upon official country projections,series issued by the UN or the U.S. CensusBureau, or PRB projections.Infant Mortality RateThe annual number of deaths of infants underage 1 per 1,000 live births. Rates shown withdecimals indicate national statistics reportedas completely registered, while those withoutare estimates from the sources cited above.Rates shown in italics are based upon fewerthan 50 annual infant deaths and, as a result,are subject to considerable yearly variability.Total Fertility Rate (TFR)The average number of children a womanwould have assuming that currentage-specific birth rates remain constantthroughout her childbearing years (usuallyconsidered to be ages 15-49).Population Under Age 15/Age 65+The percentage of the total population inthese ages, which are often considered the“dependent ages.”Elderly Support RatioThe number of working-age people ages15-64 divided by the number of persons 65or older, indicating levels of potential societalsupport available for the elderly.Life Expectancy at BirthThe average number of years a newborninfant can expect to live under currentmortality levels.Percent UrbanPercentage of the total population livingin areas termed “urban” by that country.Countries define urban in many differentways, from population centers of 100 ormore dwellings to only the population livingin national and provincial capitals.Prevalence of HIV/AIDSThe estimated percentage of adults ages15-49 living with HIV/AIDS. Most figures arefrom UNAIDS’ 2008 Report on the GlobalAIDS Epidemic. Figures are updated withdata from Demographic and Health Surveyswhere available. Some regional averageswere calculated by PRB.Contraceptive UseThe percentage of currently married or“in-union” women of reproductive agewho are using any form of contraception.“Modern” methods include clinic and supplymethods such as the pill, IUD, condom, andsterilization. Data are from the most recentlyavailable national-level surveys, such asDemographic and Health Surveys, Repro-ductive Health Surveys, Multiple IndicatorCluster Surveys, regional survey programs,national surveys, and the UN PopulationDivision World Contraceptive Use 2009.For more developed countries, data refer tosome point in the 1990s and early 2000s;and for less developed countries, from 1995.Data prior to 2004 are shown in italics.GNI PPP per Capita, 2008 (US$)GNI PPP per capita is gross national incomein purchasing power parity (PPP) divided bymidyear population. GNI PPP refers to grossnational income converted to “international”dollars using a purchasing power parity con-version factor. International dollars indicatethe amount of goods and services one couldbuy in the United States with a given amountof money. Data are from the World Bank.Figures in italics are for 2006 or 2007.Mobile Phone Subscribers per 100InhabitantsData are from the International Telecommu-nications Union, Measuring the InformationSociety 2010 (www.itu.int).Percent of Population Who UseImproved SanitationFor monitoring Millennium DevelopmentGoals, an improved sanitation facility isdefined as one that hygienically separatessewage from human contact. Data are fromWHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programmefor Water Supply and Sanitation (www./datamining/tables.html).Acknowledgments, Notes, Sources, and Definitions1875 Connecticut Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20009 USAtel. 202-483-1100 | fax 202-328-3937 | e-mail: popref@ | website: if you value the PrB’s World Population Data Sheet and are among the tens of thousands of people who eagerly anticipate its publication each year, please consider making a contribution to PrB. Your donation will help ensure that PrB can maintain its commitment to keeping the Data Sheet as affordable as possible. Visit our website to donate now: .inForMPRB informs people around the world about issues related to population, health, and the environment. to do this, we transform technical data and research into accurate, easy-to-understand information.innovativE tools. Datafinder is a PRB searchable database of 133 population, health, and environment variables for all countries of the world. a separate u.S. database includes 579 social, economic, and demographic variables for each state and the District of columbia. influEntial rEPorts. Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting: Data and Trends—Update 2010 is a new and unique data sheet that highlights fGM/c data and information for 27 countries. this publication is useful tothose working for the abandonment of fGM/c and for the improvement of women’s repro-ductive health.unbiasED PoliCy anal ysis. for more than 20 years, PRB has hosted a monthly seminar series focused on the policy implica-tions of population issues including neglected tropical diseases, climate change and mortality, and HiV/aiDS.onlinE rEsourCEs. PRB’s websiteoffers full text of all PRB publications, including our respected Population Bulletins , and web-exclusive data and analysis on world issues ranging from aging to family planning.eMPoWerPRB empowers people—researchers, journal-ists, policymakers, and educators—to use information about population, health, and the environment to encourage action. frequently, people have information but lack the toolsneeded to communicate effectively to decision-makers. PRB builds coalitions and conducts trainings to share techniques to inform policy. Journalist nEtWorks. PRB builds the capacity of journalists from developing countries through seminars and study tours. We organized several study tours for journalists in uganda, Kenya, tanzania, and Mali to visit projects and the people they affect.PoliCy CommuniCations traininG. in the past decade, PRB has trained more than 800 professionals in asia, africa, and latin amer-ica. for example, we sponsored two workshops with Kenya’s national coordinating agency for Population and Development, training local and regional policymakers, program managers, and advocates.Data WorkshoPs. PRB’s data workshops and online training assist the annie e. casey foundation’s KiDS count network in using vital data about the status of children in the united States. Participants take away the knowledge needed to access data about their particular state and communicate with policymakers.adVanCePRB works to advance the well-being of current and future generations. toward that end, we analyze data and research, disseminate informa-tion, and empower people to use that informa-tion to inform policymaking. While the numbers of publications created or workshops conducted are one way to measure PRB’s work, the cre-ation of evidence-based policies, increaseddemand for health services, and active coalitions are better gauges of progress toward positive social change.EviDEnCE-basED PoliCiEs. PRB pro-vides analysis for the KiDS count Data Book, an annual report card on the well-being of children and families in the united States. the Data Book has helped promote the passage of several u.S. policies, including the State children’s Health insurance Program.DEmanD for hEal th sErviCEs. an article written after one study tour for journalists in Kenya led to a steep increase in vasectomies in western Kenya. Seminars for journalists in West africa increased coverage of contraceptive supply problems, prompting government action in Senegal.aCtivE Coalitions. PRB works with the east africa Population, Health, and environment network to increase information sharing across the region. the afRicaPHe online discussion group improves access to information andcapacity-building and funding opportunities.。
人口经济学的发展历程季明敏【摘要】介绍人口经济学产生和提出的背景及其发展历程以及在中国的发展,剖析当代人口经济学面临的问题,展望人口经济学在中国的发展前景.【期刊名称】《重庆与世界(学术版)》【年(卷),期】2013(030)011【总页数】3页(P34-36)【关键词】人口经济学;发展历程;人口理论【作者】季明敏【作者单位】江苏省委党校经济学教研部,南京210013【正文语种】中文【中图分类】F240一、人口经济学的形成历程人口经济学(populationeics)作为一门新兴的边缘学科，主要是考察人口变动对经济增长或经济发展的影响，同时研究人口变动的经济因素以及人口现象和经济现象的相互关系等等。
一般来说，人口经济学属于应用经济学的范畴。
(一)人口经济学的产生和提出人口经济学作为一门新兴学科是在二次世界大战以后，1970年代初诞生的。
不过，由于人口经济问题的历史久远性，经济学家对人口与经济相互关系的探讨，可以追溯到18世纪下半叶。
古典经济学派的集大成者亚当·斯密(AdamSmith)提出，经济发展的动因是人口绝对水准的增长，通过“分工的利益”影响劳动生产性。
他在1776年发表的《国富论》中曾明确地指出“一国的繁荣而言，最明确的标识是居民人数的增长”，人口增长是经济发展的重要因素。
古典经济学派的代表人物大卫·李嘉图(Davld-Rieardo)在《政治经济学及赋税原理》中论说，人口增长对经济发展而言，以收益递减法则的作用为前提，随着投人一定土地的人口增加，由土地集约的耕作和优良地向劣等地的移转，因而增加资本并不能提高生产率，反而使报酬呈现减退的倾向。
即使说生产超过人口的增长，也是不能永远持续稳定地增长。
“是因为人口增长常常是持续的，而土地的数量有限，质量又有差民，在土地上按照比例关系投人资本的各种增加部分使生产率减退”，从而产生了人口压力。
总之，亚当·斯密和大卫·李嘉图等经济学家，从经济学的角度来研究人口问题，从而使人口论在经济学中开始获得一定地位。
