chapter12 权益估值

CFA二级笔记12-权益-市场倍数估值模型本章框架一、basic concepts of multiples（乘数的主要概念）1.price multiples and enterprise valuation multiples2.cross border valuation difference（跨国公司估值的差异）3.justified price multiples二、price multiples1、P/E ratio1.1 基本介绍1.2 trailing and leading P/E ratio1.3 underlying earning and normalized earnings【错题7】反思：对于earring 调整项不熟悉，recurring费用是不需要加回的current BVPS=281.4 justified P/E1.5 predict P/E form regression1.6 PEG【错题4】反思：没看把材料看完整，这道题需要用到PEG【错题8】反思：PEG算对了，但它的经济含义不熟悉！PEG越小越好（因为每单位增长率的泡沫率越小越好，P/E可以理解为泡沫率）1.7 overall market multiples【错题9】反思：收益率越高，说明折现率越高，估值就越低，所以是低估2、earnings yield and dividend yield2.1 ranking stocks2.2 rationales and potential drawbacks2.3 justified dividend yield笔记11-错题5涉及到total return3、P/B ratio3.1 rational and potential drawback3.2 justified P/B ratio【错题5】反思：没有扣除优先股部分4、P/S ratio4.1 rationales and potential drawbacks【错题2】反思：reason 1 有点半斤八两的意思4.2 justified P/S ratio【错题1】反思：shares outstanding end of year换算成billion时出错，低级错误诶！5、P/CF ratio5.1 rationales and potential drawbacks5.2 definition of cash flow【错题3】反思：没有理解透题目和材料的意思题目问的是下面哪个指标可以完美解决材料所说的“没有考虑到非现费用和营运资本”的问题，很明显，根据FCFE公式得知，FCFE是最合适的。

Corporate Finance, 3e (Berk/DeMarzo)Chapter 12 Estimating the Cost of CapitalThe Equity Cost of CapitalUse the following information to answer the question(s) below.Assume that the risk-free rate of interest is 3% and you estimate the market's expected return to be 9%.1) Which firm has the most total riskA) EenieB) MeenieC) MineyD) MoeAnswer: CExplanation: C) Total risk is measured using volatility and Miney has the highest volatility, hence the most total risk.Diff: 1Section: The Equity Cost of CapitalSkill: Analytical2) Which firm has the least market riskA) EenieB) MeenieC) MineyD) MoeAnswer: AExplanation: A) Market risk is measured using beta and Eenie has the lowest beta, hence the lowest market risk.Diff: 1Section: The Equity Cost of CapitalSkill: Analytical3) Which firm has the highest cost of equity capitalA) EenieB) MeenieC) MineyD) MoeAnswer: DExplanation: D) Cost of capital is measured using the CAPM and is a linear function of beta. Therefore the firm with the highest beta (Moe) has the highest cost of equity capital.Diff: 1Section: The Equity Cost of CapitalSkill: Analytical4) The equity cost of capital for "Miney" is closest to:A) %B) %C) %D) %Answer: CExplanation: C) r Miney = 3% + (9% - 3%) = %Diff: 1Section: The Equity Cost of CapitalSkill: Analytical5) The equity cost of capital for "Meenie" is closest to:A) %B) %C) %D) %Answer: BExplanation: B) r Meenie = 3% + (9% - 3%) = %Diff: 1Section: The Equity Cost of CapitalSkill: Analytical6) The risk premium for "Meenie" is closest to:A) %B) %C) %D) %Answer: AExplanation: A) risk premium Meenie = (9% - 3%) = % Diff: 2Section: The Equity Cost of CapitalSkill: AnalyticalThe Market PortfolioUse the following information to answer the question(s) below.Suppose all possible investment opportunities in the world are limited to the four stocks list in the table below:1) The weight on Taggart Transcontinental stock in the market portfolio is closest to:A) 15%B) 20%C) 25%D) 30%Answer: BExplanation: B)Section: The Market Portfolio Skill: Analytical2) The weight on Wyatt Oil stock in the market portfolio is closest to:A) 15%B) 20%C) 25%D) 30%Answer: AExplanation: A)Section: The Market PortfolioSkill: Analytical3) Suppose that you are holding a market portfolio and you have invested $9,000 in Rearden Metal. The amount that you have invested in Nielson Motors is closest to:A) $6,000B) $7,715C) $9,000D) $10,500Answer: DExplanation: D)Calculations B × C D/1950Stock Price perShareNumber of SharesOutstanding(Millions)MarketCap WeightTaggart Transcontinental$25$Rearden Metal$45$Wyatt Oil$10$Nielson Motors$26$Total$Amount Nielson = × Amount Rearden = × $9,000 = $10,500 Diff: 2Section: The Market PortfolioSkill: Analytical4) Suppose that you are holding a market portfolio and you have invested $9,000 in Rearden Metal. The amount that you have invested in Taggart Transcontinental is closest to:A) $4,500B) $6,000C) $7,715D) $9,000Answer: BExplanation: B)Calculations B × C D/1950Stock Price perShareNumber of SharesOutstanding(Millions)MarketCap WeightTaggart Transcontinental$25$Rearden Metal$45$Wyatt Oil$10$Nielson Motors$26$Total$Amount Nielson = × Amount Rearden = × $9,000 = $6,000Diff: 2Section: The Market PortfolioSkill: Analytical5) Suppose that you have invested $30,000 invested in the market portfolio. Then the amount that you have invested in Wyatt Oil is closest to:A) $4,500B) $6,000C) $7,715D) $9,000Answer: AExplanation: A)Amount WO = Weight WO × Amount Market= .15 × $30,000 = $4,500Diff: 2Section: The Market PortfolioSkill: Analytical6) Suppose that you have invested $30,000 in the market portfolio. Then the number of shares of Rearden Metal that you hold is closest to:A) 450 sharesB) 700 sharesC) 1,400 sharesD) 2,300 sharesAnswer: BExplanation: B)Calculations B × C D/1950Stock Price perShareNumber of SharesOutstanding(Millions)MarketCap WeightTaggart Transcontinental$25$ Rearden Metal$45$ Wyatt Oil$10$ Nielson Motors$26$Total$ Shares RM = = = sharesDiff: 2Section: The Market PortfolioSkill: Analytical7) Suppose that you have invested $30,000 in the market portfolio. Then the number of shares of Wyatt Oil that you hold is closest to:A) 150 sharesB) 300 sharesC) 350 sharesD) 450 sharesAnswer: AExplanation: A)Calculations B × C D/1950Stock Price perShareNumber of SharesOutstanding(Millions)MarketCap WeightTaggart Transcontinental$25$ Rearden Metal$45$ Wyatt Oil$10$ Nielson Motors$26$Total$ Shares WO = = = sharesDiff: 2Section: The Market PortfolioSkill: Analyticalin Taggart Transcontinental. The number of shares of Wyatt Oil that you hold is closest to:A) 90 sharesB) 460 sharesC) 615 sharesD) 770 sharesAnswer: BExplanation: B)Calculations B × C D/1950Stock Price perShareNumber of SharesOutstanding(Millions)MarketCap WeightTaggart Transcontinental$25$ Rearden Metal$45$ Wyatt Oil$10$ Nielson Motors$26$Total$= = sharesDiff: 2Section: The Market PortfolioSkill: Analyticalin Taggart Transcontinental. The number of shares of Rearden Metal that you hold is closest to:A) 780 sharesB) 925 sharesC) 1,730 sharesD) 2,075 sharesAnswer: BExplanation: B)Calculations B × C D/1950Stock Price perShareNumber of SharesOutstanding(Millions)MarketCap WeightTaggart Transcontinental$25$Rearden Metal$45$Wyatt Oil$10$Nielson Motors$26$Total$= = 2, sharesDiff: 2Section: The Market PortfolioSkill: Analytical10) Suppose that you have invested $100,000 invested in the market portfolio and that the stock price of Taggart Transcontinental suddenly drops to $ per share.Which of the following trades would you need to make in order to maintain your investment in the market portfolio:1. Buy approximately 1,140 shares of Taggart Transcontinental2. Sell approximately 256 shares of Rearden Metal3. Sell approximately 57 shares of Wyatt Oil4. Sell approximately 148 shares of Nielson MotorsA) 1 onlyB) 2 onlyC) 2, 3, and 4 onlyD) 1, 2, 3, and 4E) None of the aboveAnswer: EExplanation: E) There is no need to rebalance your portfolio. As an investor, you still hold the market portfolio and therefore there are no trades needed. Diff: 3Section: The Market PortfolioSkill: AnalyticalUse the following information to answer the question(s) below.Suppose that Merck (MRK) stock is trading for $ per share with billion shares outstanding while Boeing (BA) has million shares outstanding and a market capitalization of $ billion. Assume that you hold the market portfolio.11) Boeing's stock price is closest to:A) $B) $C) $D) $Answer: CExplanation: C) Price BA = = = $Diff: 1Section: The Market PortfolioSkill: Analytical12) Merck's market capitalization is closest to:A) $ billionB) $ billionC) $ billionD) $ billionAnswer: BExplanation: B) Market Cap = Price × shares outstanding = $ × 2,110 = $77,437 millionDiff: 1Section: The Market PortfolioSkill: Analytical13) If you hold 1,000 shares of Merck, then the number of shares of Boeing that you hold is closest to:A) 240 sharesB) 330 sharesC) 510 sharesD) 780 sharesAnswer: BExplanation: B) Shares BA== = sharesDiff: 3Section: The Market PortfolioSkill: Analytical14) Which of the following statements is FALSEA) All investors should demand the same efficient portfolio of securities in the same proportions.B) The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) allows corporate executives to identify the efficient portfolio (of risky assets) by using knowledge of the expected return of each security.C) If investors hold the efficient portfolio, then the cost of capital for any investment project is equal to its required return calculated using its beta with the efficient portfolio.D) The CAPM identifies the market portfolio as the efficient portfolio. Answer: BDiff: 1Section: The Market PortfolioSkill: Conceptual15) Which of the following statements is FALSEA) If investors have homogeneous expectations, then each investor will identify the same portfolio as having the highest Sharpe ratio in the economy.B) Homogeneous expectations are when all investors have the same estimates concerning future investments and returns.C) There are many investors in the world, and each must have identical estimates of the volatilities, correlations, and expected returns of the available securities.D) The combined portfolio of risky securities of all investors must equal the efficient portfolio.Answer: CDiff: 1Section: The Market PortfolioSkill: Conceptual16) Which of the following statements is FALSEA) If some security were not part of the efficient portfolio, then every investor would want to own it, and demand for this security would increase causing its expected return to fall until it is no longer an attractive investment.B) The efficient portfolio, the portfolio that all investors should hold, must be the same portfolio as the market portfolio of all risky securities.C) Because every security is owned by someone, the sum of all investors' portfolios must equal the portfolio of all risky securities available in the market.D) If all investors demand the efficient portfolio, and since the supply of securities is the market portfolio, then two portfolios must coincide. Answer: ADiff: 2Section: The Market PortfolioSkill: Conceptual17) Which of the following statements is FALSEA) The market portfolio contains more of the smallest stocks and less of the larger stocks.B) For the market portfolio, the investment in each security is proportional to its market capitalization.C) Because the market portfolio is defined as the total supply of securities, the proportions should correspond exactly to the proportion of the total market that each security represents.D) Market capitalization is the total market value of the outstanding shares of a firm.Answer: ADiff: 1Section: The Market PortfolioSkill: Conceptual18) Which of the following statements is FALSEA) A value-weighted portfolio is an equal-ownership portfolio: We hold an equal fraction of the total number of shares outstanding of each security in the portfolio.B) When buying a value-weighted portfolio, we end up purchasing the same percentage of shares of each firm.C) To maintain a value-weighted portfolio, we do not need to trade securities and rebalance the portfolio unless the number of shares outstanding of some security changes.D) In a value weighted portfolio the fraction of money invested in any security corresponds to its share of the total number of shares outstanding of all securitiesin the portfolio.Answer: DDiff: 1Section: The Market PortfolioSkill: Conceptual19) Which of the following statements is FALSEA) The most familiar stock index in the United States is the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).B) A portfolio in which each security is held in proportion to its market capitalization is called a price-weighted portfolio.C) The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) consists of a portfolio of 30 large industrial stocks.D) The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted portfolio. Answer: BExplanation: B) A portfolio in which each security is held in proportion to its market capitalization is called a value-weighted portfolio.Diff: 2Section: The Market PortfolioSkill: Conceptual20) Which of the following statements is FALSEA) Because very little trading is required to maintain it, an equal-weighted portfolio is called a passive portfolio.B) If the number of shares in a value weighted portfolio does not change, but only the prices change, the portfolio will remain value weighted.C) The CAPM says that individual investors should hold the market portfolio, a value-weighted portfolio of all risky securities in the market.D) A price weighted portfolio holds an equal number of shares of each stock, independent of their size.Answer: AExplanation: A) Because very little trading is required to maintain it, a value-weighted portfolio is called a passive portfolio.Diff: 3Section: The Market PortfolioSkill: Conceptual21) Which of the following statements is FALSEA) A market index reports the value of a particular portfolio of securities.B) The S&P 500 is the standard portfolio used to represent "the market" when using the CAPM in practice.C) Even though the S&P 500 includes only 500 of the more than 7,000 individual . Stocks in existence, it represents more than 70% of the . stock market in terms of market capitalization.D) The S&P 500 is an equal-weighted portfolio of 500 of the largest . stocks. Answer: DExplanation: D) The S&P 500 is a value-weighted portfolio of 500 of the largest .stocks.Diff: 2Section: The Market PortfolioSkill: Conceptual22) Which of the following statements is FALSEA) The S&P 500 and the Wilshire 5000 indexes are both well-diversified indexes that roughly correspond to the market of . stocks.B) Practitioners commonly use the S&P 500 as the market portfolio in the CAPM with the belief that this index is the market portfolio.C) Standard & Poor's Depository Receipts (SPDR, nicknamed "spider") trade on the American Stock Exchange and represent ownership in the S&P 500.D) The S&P 500 was the first widely publicized value weighted index and it has become a benchmark for professional investors.Answer: BDiff: 2Section: The Market PortfolioSkill: Conceptual23) In practice which market index is most widely used as a proxy for the market portfolio in the CAPMA) Dow Jones Industrial AverageB) Wilshire 5000C) S&P 500D) . Treasury BillAnswer: CDiff: 1Section: The Market PortfolioSkill: Conceptual24) In practice which market index would best be used as a proxy for the market portfolio in the CAPMA) S&P 500B) Dow Jones Industrial AverageC) . Treasury BillD) Wilshire 5000Answer: DDiff: 1Section: The Market PortfolioSkill: ConceptualUse the table for the question(s) below.Consider the following stock price and shares outstanding data:25) The market capitalization for Wal-Mart is closest to:A) $415 BillionB) $276 BillionC) $479 BillionD) $200 BillionAnswer: DExplanation: D)Diff: 1Section: The Market Portfolio Skill: Analytical26) The total market capitalization for all four stocks is closest to:A) $479 BillionB) $415 BillionC) $2,100 BillionD) $200 BillionAnswer: BExplanation: B)Section: The Market PortfolioSkill: Analytical27) If you are interested in creating a value-weighted portfolio of these four stocks, then the percentage amount that you would invest in Lowes is closest to:A) 25%B) 11%C) %D) 12%Answer: BExplanation: B)Section: The Market Portfolio Skill: Analyticalvalue-weighted portfolio of these four stocks. The number of shares of Wal-Mart that you would hold in your portfolio is closest to: A) 710 B) 1390 C) 1000 D) 870 Answer: C Explanation: C)Stock Name Price per Share SharesOutstanding (Billions)MarketCapitalization (Billions)Percent of Total Number ofSharesLowes $ $ % 368 Wal-Mart $ $ % 1,002 Intel $ $ % 1,387 Boeing $ $ %190Total$Number of shares =Diff: 2Section: The Market Portfolio Skill: Analyticalvalue-weighted portfolio of these four stocks. The percentage of the shares outstanding of Boeing that you would hold in your portfolio is closest to: A) .000018% B) .000020% C) .000024% D) .000031% Answer: C Explanation: C)Stock Name Price per Share SharesOutstanding (Billions)MarketCapitalization (Billions)Percent of Total Number ofSharesLowes $ $ % 368 Wal-Mart $ $ % 1,002 Intel $ $ % 1,387 Boeing $ $ %190Total$Number of shares =percentage shares outstanding = 190/0 = .000024% Diff: 2Section: The Market Portfolio Skill: Analytical30) Assume that you have $250,000 to invest and you are interested in creating a value-weighted portfolio of these four stocks. How many shares of each of the fourstocks will you hold What percentage of the shares outstanding of each stock will you holdAnswer:Stock Name Price perShareSharesOutstanding(Billions)MarketCapitalization(Billions)Percentof TotalNumber ofSharesLowes$ $ %368Wal-Mart$ $ %1,002Intel$ $ %1,387Boeing$ $ %190Total$% of Shares%Number of shares =In a value weighted portfolio, the percentage of shares of every stock will be the same.Diff: 3Section: The Market PortfolioSkill: AnalyticalBeta EstimationUse the following information to answer the question(s) below.Year Risk-freeReturnMarketReturnWyatt OilReturnMarketExcessReturnWyatt OilExcessReturn Beta2007%%%%% 2008%%%.40%% 2009%%%%%1) Wyatt Oil's average historical return is closest to:A) %B) %C) %D) %Answer: AExplanation: A) r average =Year Risk-freeReturnMarketReturnWyatt OilReturnMarketExcessReturnWyatt OilExcessReturn2007%%%%% 2008%%%%% 2009%%%%% Average%%%%%Section: Beta EstimationSkill: Analytical2) The Market's average historical return is closest to:A) %B) %C) %D) %Answer: BExplanation: B) r average =Year Risk-freeReturnMarketReturnWyatt OilReturnMarketExcessReturnWyattOilExcessReturn2007%%%%% 2008%%%%% 2009%%%%% Average%%%%%Section: Beta EstimationSkill: Analytical3) Wyatt Oil's average historical excess return is closest to:A) %B) %C) %D) %Answer: CExplanation: C) excess return average =Year Risk-freeReturnMarketReturnWyatt OilReturnMarketExcessReturnWyattOilExcessReturn2007%%%%% 2008%%%%% 2009%%%%% Average%%%%%Section: Beta EstimationSkill: Analytical4) The Market's average historical excess return is closest to:A) %B) %C) %D) %Answer: DExplanation: D) excess return average =Year Risk-freeReturnMarketReturnWyatt OilReturnMarketExcessReturnWyattOilExcessReturn2007%%%%% 2008%%%%% 2009%%%%% Average%%%%%Section: Beta EstimationSkill: Analytical5) Wyatt Oil's excess return for 2009 is closest to:A) %B) %C) %D) %Answer: AExplanation: A) excess return e = (r WO - r rf)2009Section: Beta Estimation Skill: Analytical6) The Market's excess return for 2008 is closest to:A) %B) %C) %D) %Answer: AExplanation: A) excess return e = (r WO - r rf)2009Section: Beta EstimationSkill: Analytical7) Using the average historical excess returns for both Wyatt Oil and the Market portfolio, your estimate of Wyatt Oil's Beta is closest to:A)B)C)D)Answer: BExplanation: B) excess return average = excess return average =Year Risk-freeReturnMarketReturnWyatt OilReturnMarketExcessReturnWyattOilExcessReturn2007%%%%% 2008%%%%% 2009%%%%% Average%%%%%βWO= = = .8375Diff: 3Section: Beta EstimationSkill: Analytical8) Using the average historical excess returns for both Wyatt Oil and the Market portfolio estimate of Wyatt Oil's Beta. When using this beta, the alpha for Wyatt oil in 2007 is closest to:A) %B) %C) %D) +%Answer: CExplanation: C) excess return average =excess return average =Year Risk-freeReturnMarketReturnWyatt OilReturnMarketExcessReturnWyattOilExcessReturn2007%%%%% 2008%%%%% 2009%%%%% Average%%%%%βWO = = = .8375α = actual return - expected return for CAPM = % - [3% + .8375(6% - 3%)] = %Diff: 3Section: Beta EstimationSkill: Analytical9) Using just the return data for 2009, your estimate of Wyatt Oil's Beta is closest to:A)B)C)D)Answer: BExplanation: B)Year Risk-freeReturnMarketReturnWyatt OilReturnMarketExcessReturnWyattOilExcessReturn2007%%%%%2008%%%%%2009%%%%% Average%%%%%βWO = = = .8651Diff: 2Section: Beta EstimationSkill: Analytical10) Using just the return data for 2008, your estimate of Wyatt Oil's Beta is closest to:A)B)C)D)Answer: A Explanation: A)Year Risk-freeReturnMarketReturnWyatt OilReturnMarketExcessReturnWyattOilExcessReturn2007%%%%% 2008%%%%% 2009%%%%% Average%%%%%βWO = - = .8525Diff: 2Section: Beta EstimationSkill: Analytical11) Which of the following statements is FALSEA) Beta is the expected percent change in the excess return of the security for a 1% change in the excess return of the market portfolio.B) Beta represents the amount by which risks that affect the overall market are amplified for a given stock or investment.C) It is common practice to estimate beta based on the historical correlation and volatilities.D) Beta measures the diversifiable risk of a security, as opposed to its market risk, and is the appropriate measure of the risk of a security for an investor holding the market portfolio.Answer: DExplanation: D) Beta measures the nondiversifiable risk of a security.Diff: 1Section: Beta EstimationSkill: Conceptual12) Which of the following statements is FALSEA) One difficulty when trying to estimate beta for a security is that beta depends on the correlation and volatilities of the security's and market's returns in the future.B) It is common practice to estimate beta based on the expectations of future correlations and volatilities.C) One difficulty when trying to estimate beta for a security is that beta depends on investors expectations of the correlation and volatilities of the security's and market's returns.D) Securities that tend to move less than the market have betas below 1.Answer: BExplanation: B) Beta is measured using past information.Diff: 1Section: Beta EstimationSkill: Conceptual13) Which of the following statements is FALSEA) Securities that tend to move more than the market have betas higher than 0.B) Securities whose returns tend to move in tandem with the market on average have a beta of 1.C) Beta corresponds to the slope of the best fitting line in the plot of the securities excess returns versus the market excess return.D) The statistical technique that identifies the bets-fitting line through a set of points is called linear regression.Answer: ADiff: 2Section: Beta EstimationSkill: ConceptualUse the equation for the question(s) below.Consider the following linear regression model:(R i - r f) = a i + b i(R Mkt - r f) + e i14) The b i in the regressionA) measures the sensitivity of the security to market risk.B) measures the historical performance of the security relative to the expected return predicted by the SML.C) measures the deviation from the best fitting line and is zero on average.D) measures the diversifiable risk in returns.Answer: ADiff: 2Section: Beta EstimationSkill: Conceptual15) The a i in the regressionA) measures the sensitivity of the security to market risk.B) measures the deviation from the best fitting line and is zero on average.C) measures the diversifiable risk in returns.D) measures the historical performance of the security relative to the expected return predicted by the SML.Answer: DDiff: 2Section: Beta EstimationSkill: Conceptual16) The e i in the regressionA) measures the market risk in returns.B) measures the deviation from the best fitting line and is zero on average.C) measures the sensitivity of the security to market risk.D) measures the historical performance of the security relative to the expected return predicted by the SML.Answer: BDiff: 2Section: Beta EstimationSkill: ConceptualThe Debt Cost of CapitalUse the following information to answer the question(s) below.Consider the following information regarding corporate bonds:1) Wyatt Oil has a bond issue outstanding with seven years to maturity, a yield to maturity of %, and a BBB rating. The corresponding risk-free rate is 3% and the market risk premium is 5%. Assuming a normal economy, the expected return on Wyatt Oil's debt is closest to:A) %B) %C) %D) %Answer: BExplanation: B) r d = r rf + β(r m - r rf) = 3% + (5%) = %Diff: 1Section: The Debt Cost of CapitalSkill: Analytical2) Wyatt Oil has a bond issue outstanding with seven years to maturity, a yield to maturity of %, and a BBB rating. The bondholders' expected loss rate in the event of default is 70%. Assuming a normal economy the expected return on Wyatt Oil'sdebt is closest to:A) %B) %C) %D) %Answer: DExplanation: D) r d = ytm - prob(default) × loss rate = 7% - %(70%) = % Diff: 2Section: The Debt Cost of CapitalSkill: Analytical3) Wyatt Oil has a bond issue outstanding with seven years to maturity, a yield to maturity of %, and a BBB rating. The bondholders' expected loss rate in the event of default is 70%. Assuming the economy is in recession, then the expected return on Wyatt Oil's debt is closest to:A) %B) %C) %D) %Answer: BExplanation: B) r d = ytm - prob(default) × loss rate = 7% - %(70%) = %Diff: 2Section: The Debt Cost of CapitalSkill: Analytical4) Rearden Metal has a bond issue outstanding with ten years to maturity, a yield to maturity of %, and a B rating. The corresponding risk-free rate is 3% and the market risk premium is 6%. Assuming a normal economy, the expected return on Rearden Metal's debt is closest to:A) %B) %C) %D) %Answer: CExplanation: C) r d = r rf + β(r m - r rf) = 3% + (6%) = %Diff: 1Section: The Debt Cost of Capital。

公司理财精要版原书第12版习题库答案Ross12e_Chapter12_TBFundamentals of Corporate Finance, 12e (Ross)Chapter 12 Some Lessons from Capital Market History1) Stacy purchased a stock last year and sold it today for $4 a share more than her purchase price. She received a total of $1.15 per share in dividends. Which one of the following statements is correct in relation to this investment?A) The dividend yield is expressed as a percentage of the par value.B) The capital gain would have been less had Stacy not received the dividends.C) The total dollar return per share is $2.85.D) The capital gains yield is positive.E) The dividend yield is greater than the capital gains yield.2) Which one of the following correctly describes the dividend yield?A) Next year's annual dividend divided by today's stock priceB) This year's annual dividend divided by today's stock priceC) This year's annual dividend divided by next year's expected stock priceD) Next year's annual dividend divided by this year's annual dividendE) The increase in next year's dividend over this year's dividend divided by this year's dividend3) Bayside Marina just announced it is decreasing its annual dividend from $1.48 per share to $1.45 per share effective immediately. If the dividend yield remains at its pre-announcement level, then you know the stock price:A) was unaffected by the announcement.B) increased proportionately with the dividend decrease.C) decreased proportionately with the dividend decrease.D) decreased by $.03 per share.E) increased by $.03 per share.4) Which one of the following statements related to capital gains is correct?A) The capital gains yield includes only realized capital gains.B) An increase in an unrealized capital gain will increase the capital gains yield.C) The capital gains yield must be either positive or zero.D) The capital gains yield is expressed as a percentage of a security's total return.E) The capital gains yield represents the total return earned by an investor.5) Which of the following yields on a stock can be negative?A) Dividend yieldB) Capital gains yieldC) Capital gains yield and total returnD) Dividend yield, capital gains yield, and total returnE) Dividend yield and total return6) Small-company stocks, as the term is used in the textbook, are best defined as the:A) 500 newest corporations in the U.S.B) companies whose stock trades OTC.C) smallest 20 percent of the companies listed on the NYSE.D) smallest 25 percent of the companies listed on NASDAQ.E) companies whose stock is listed on NASDAQ.7) The historical record for the period 1926–2016 supports which one of the following statements?A) When large-company stocks have a negative return, they will have a negative return for at least two consecutive years.B) The return on U.S. Treasury bills exceeds the inflation rate by at least .5 percent each year.C) There was only one year during the period when double-digit inflation occurred.D) Small-company stocks have lost as much as 50 percent and gained as much as 100 percent in a single year.E) The inflation rate was positive each year throughout the period.8) Which one of the following time periods is associated with low rates of inflation?A) 1941–1942B) 1973–1974C) 2014–2015D) 1979–1980E) 1946–19479) For the period 1926–2016, U.S. Treasury bills always:A) provided an annual rate of return that exceeded the annual inflation rate.B) had an annual rate of return in excess of 1.2 percent.C) provided a positive annual rate of return.D) earned a higher annual rate of return than long-term government bonds.E) had a greater variation in returns year-over-year than did long-term government bonds.10) Which one of the following statements is a correct reflection of the U.S. financial markets for the period 1926–2016?A) U.S. Treasury bill returns never exceeded a return of 9 percent in any one year.B) U.S. Treasury bills had an annual return in excess of 10 percent in three or more years.C) Inflation equaled or exceeded the return on U.S. Treasury bills every year during the period.D) Long-term government bonds outperformed U.S. Treasury bills every year during the period.E) National deflation occurred in at least one year during every decade during the period.11) For the period 2009–2016, U.S. Treasury bills had an annual rate of return that was:A) between .5 and 1 percent.B) between 1 and 2 percent.C) negative in at least one year.D) negative for two or more years.E) between 0 and .25 percent.12) Which one of the following categories of securities had the highest average annual return for the period 1926–2016?A) U.S. Treasury billsB) Large-company stocksC) Small-company stocksD) Long-term corporate bondsE) Long-term government bonds13) Which one of the following categories of securities had the lowest average risk premium for the period 1926–2016?A) Long-term government bondsB) Small-company stocksC) Large-company stocksD) Long-term corporate bondsE) U.S. Treasury bills14) The rate of return on which type of security is normally used as the risk-free rate of return?A) Long-term Treasury bondsB) Long-term corporate bondsC) Treasury billsD) Intermediate-term Treasury bondsE) Intermediate-term corporate bonds15) For the period 1926–2016, the average risk premium on large-company stocks was about:A) 12.7 percent.B) 10.4 percent.C) 8.6 percent.D) 6.9 percent.E) 7.3 percent.16) Assume that last year T-bills returned 2.8 percent while your investment in large-company stocks earned an average of7.6 percent. Which one of the following terms refers to the difference between these two rates of return?A) Risk premiumB) Geometric average returnC) Arithmetic average returnD) Standard deviationE) Variance17) Which one of the following statements correctly applies to the period 1926–2016?A) Large-company stocks earned a higher average risk premium than did small-company stocks.B) The average inflation rate exceeded the average return on U.S. Treasury bills.C) Large-company stocks had an average annual return of 14.7 percent.D) Inflation averaged 2.6 percent for the period.E) Long-term corporate bonds outperformed long-term government bonds.18) The excess return is computed as the:A) return on a security minus the inflation rate.B) return on a risky security minus the risk-free rate.C) risk premium on a risky security minus the risk-free rate.D) risk-free rate plus the inflation rate.E) risk-free rate minus the inflation rate.19) Which one of the following earned the highest risk premium over the period 1926–2016?A) Long-term corporate bondsB) U.S. Treasury billsC) Small-company stocksD) Large-company stocksE) Long-term government bonds20) What was the average rate of inflation over the period of 1926–2016?A) Less than 2.0 percentB) Between 2.0 and 2.4 percentC) Between 2.4 and 2.8 percentD) Between 2.8 and 3.2 percentE) Greater than 3.2 percent21) Assume you invest in a portfolio of long-term corporate bonds. Based on the period 1926–2016, what average annual rate of return should you expect to earn?A) Less than 5 percentB) Between 5 and 6 percentC) Between 6 and 7 percentD) Between 7 and 8 percentE) More than 8 percent22) The average annual return on small-company stocks was about ________ percent greater than the average annual return on large-company stocks over the period 1926–2016.A) 3B) 5C) 7D) 9E) 1123) Based on the period 1926-2016, the actual real return on large-company stocks has been around:A) 9 percent.B) 10 percent.C) 6 percent.D) 7 percent.E) 8 percent.24) To convince investors to accept greater volatility, you must:A) decrease the risk premium.B) increase the risk premium.C) decrease the real return.D) decrease the risk-free rate.E) increase the risk-free rate.25) Which one of the following best defines the variance of an investment's annual returns over a number of years?A) The average squared difference between the arithmetic and the geometric average annual returnsB) The squared summation of the differences between the actual returns and the average geometric returnC) The average difference between the annual returns and the average return for the periodD) The difference between the arithmetic average and the geometric average return for the periodE) The average squared difference between the actual returns and the arithmetic average return26) Which one of the following categories of securities had the most volatile annual returns over the period 1926–2016?A) Long-term corporate bondsB) Large-company stocksC) Intermediate-term government bondsD) U.S. Treasury billsE) Small-company stocks27) If the variability of the returns on large-company stocks were to decrease over the long-term, you would expect which one of the following as related to large-company stocks to occur as a result?A) Increase in the risk premiumB) Increase in the average long-term rate of returnC) Decrease in the 68 percent probability range of returnsD) Increase in the standard deviationE) Increase in the geometric average rate of return28) Which one of the following statements is correct based on the historical record for the period 1926–2016?A) The standard deviation of returns for small-company stocks was double that of large-company stocks.B) U.S. Treasury bills had a zero standard deviation of returns because they are considered to be risk-free.C) Long-term government bonds had a lower return but a higher standard deviation on average than did long-term corporate bonds.D) Inflation was less volatile than the returns on U.S. Treasury bills.E) Long-term government bonds were less volatile than intermediate-term government bonds.29) What is the probability that small-company stocks will produce an annual return that is more than one standard deviation below the average?A) 1.0 percentB) 2.5 percentC) 5.0 percentD) 16 percentE) 32 percent30) Which one of the following is a correct ranking of securities based on the volatility of their annual returns over the period of 1926–2016? Rank from highest to lowest.A) Large-company stocks, U.S. Treasury bills, long-term government bondsB) Small-company stocks, long-term corporate bonds, large-company stocksC) Long-term government bonds, long-term corporate bonds, intermediate-term government bondsD) Large-company stocks, small-company stocks, long-term government bondsE) Intermediate-term government bonds, long-term corporate bonds, U.S. Treasury bills31) Which one of the following had the least volatile annual returns over the period of 1926–2016?A) Large-company stocksB) InflationC) Long-term corporate bondsD) U.S. Treasury billsE) Intermediate-term government bonds32) Which one of the following statements is correct based on the period 1926–2016?A) Long-term government bonds had more volatile annual returns than did the long-term corporate bonds.B) The standard deviation of the annual rate of inflation was less than 3 percent.C) U.S Treasury bills have a zero variance in returns because they are risk-free.D) The risk premium on small-company stocks was less than 10 percent.E) The risk premium on all U.S. government securities is 0 percent.33) Generally speaking, which of the following best correspond to a wide frequency distribution?A) High standard deviation, low rate of returnB) Low rate of return, large risk premiumC) Small risk premium, high rate of returnD) Small risk premium, low standard deviationE) High standard deviation, large risk premium34) Standard deviation is a measure of which one of the following?A) Average rate of returnB) VolatilityD) Risk premiumE) Real returns35) Which one of the following is defined by its mean and its standard deviation?A) Arithmetic nominal returnB) Geometric real returnC) Normal distributionD) VarianceE) Risk premium36) Which of the following statements are true based on the historical record for 1926–2016?A) Risk-free securities produce a positive real rate of return each year.B) Bonds are generally a safer, or less risky, investment than are stocks.C) Risk and potential reward are inversely related.D) The normal distribution curve for large-company stocks is narrower than the curve for small-company stocks.E) Returns are more predictable over the short term than they are over the long term.37) Estimates of the rate of return on a security based on the historical arithmetic average will probably tend to ________ the expected return for the long-term and estimates using the historical geometric average will probably tend to ________ the expected return for the short-term.A) overestimate; overestimateB) overestimate; underestimateC) underestimate; overestimateD) underestimate; underestimateE) accurately estimate; accurately estimate38) The primary purpose of Blume's formula is to:A) compute an accurate historical rate of return.B) determine a stock's true current value.C) consider compounding when estimating a rate of return.D) determine the actual real rate of return.E) project future rates of return.39) The average compound return earned per year over a multiyear period is called the ________ average return.A) arithmeticB) standardC) variantD) geometricE) real40) The return earned in an average year over a multiyear period is called the ________ average return.B) standardC) variantD) geometricE) real41) Assume all stock prices fairly reflect all of the available information on those stocks. Which one of the following terms best defines the stock market under these conditions?A) Riskless marketB) Evenly distributed marketC) Zero volatility marketD) Blume's marketE) Efficient capital market42) Which one of the following statements best defines the efficient market hypothesis?A) Efficient markets limit competition.B) Security prices in efficient markets remain steady as new information becomes available.C) Mispriced securities are common in efficient markets.D) All securities in an efficient market are zero net present value investments.E) All securities provide the same positive rate of return when the market is efficient.43) Which one of the following is the most likely reason why a stock price might not react at all on the day that new information related to the stock's issuer is released? Assume the market is semistrong form efficient.A) Company insiders were aware of the information prior to the announcement.B) Investors do not pay attention to daily news.C) Investors tend to overreact.D) The news was positive.E) The information was expected.44) Which one of the following is most indicative of a totally efficient stock market?A) Extraordinary returns earned on a routine basisB) Positive net present values on stock investments over the long-termC) Zero net present values for all stock investmentsD) Arbitrage opportunities which develop on a routine basisE) Realizing negative returns on a routine basis45) Which one of the following statements is correct concerning market efficiency?A) Real asset markets are more efficient than financial markets.B) If a market is efficient, arbitrage opportunities should be common.C) In an efficient market, some market participants will have an advantage over others.D) A firm will generally receive a fair price when it issues new shares of stock if the market is efficient.E) New information will gradually be reflected in a stock's price to avoid any sudden price changes in an efficient market.46) Efficient financial markets fluctuate continuously because:A) the markets are continually reacting to old information as that information is absorbed.B) the markets are continually reacting to new information.C) arbitrage trading is limited.D) current trading systems require human intervention.E) investments produce varying levels of net present values.47) Inside information has the least value when financial markets are:A) weak form efficient.B) semiweak form efficient.C) semistrong form efficient.D) strong form efficient.E) inefficient.48) Evidence seems to support the view that studying public information to identify mispriced stocks is:A) effective as long as the market is only semistrong form efficient.B) effective provided the market is only weak form efficient.C) ineffective.D) effective only in strong form efficient markets.E) ineffective only in strong form efficient markets.49) Which one of the following statements related to market efficiency tends to be supported by current evidence?A) It is easy for investors to earn abnormal returns.B) Short-run price movements are easy to predict.C) Markets are most likely only weak form efficient.D) Mispriced stocks are easy to identify.E) Markets tend to respond quickly to new information.50) Which form of market efficiency would most likely offer the greatest profit potential to an outstanding professional stock analyst?A) WeakB) SemiweakC) SemistrongD) StrongE) Perfect51) You are aware that your neighbor trades stocks based on confidential information he overhears at his workplace. This information is not available to the general public. This neighborcontinually brags to you about the profits he earns on these trades. Given this, you would tend to argue that the financial markets are at best ________ form efficient.A) weakB) semiweakC) semistrongD) strongE) perfect52) The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission periodically charges individuals with insider trading and claims those individuals have made unfair profits. Given this, you would be most apt to argue that the markets are less than ________ form efficient.A) weakB) semiweakC) semistrongD) strongE) perfect53) Individual investors who continually monitor the financial markets seeking mispriced securities:A) earn excess profits on all of their investments.B) make the markets increasingly more efficient.C) are never able to find a security that is temporarily mispriced.D) are overwhelmingly successful in earning abnormal profits.E) are always quite successful using only historical price information as their basis of evaluation.54) One year ago, you purchased a stock at a price of $43.20 per share. The stock pays quarterly dividends of $.18 per share. Today, the stock is selling for $45.36 per share. What is your capital gain on this investment?A) $1.44B) $2.16C) $2.80D) $1.74E) $2.3455) Six months ago, you purchased 300 shares of stock in Global Trading at a price of $26.19 a share. The stock pays a quarterly dividend of $.12 a share. Today, you sold all of your shares for $27.11 per share. What is the total amount of your dividend income on this investment?A) $36B) $72C) $348D) $144E) $20456) One year ago, you purchased 200 shares of SL Industries stock at a price of $18.97 a share. The stock pays an annual dividend of $1.42 per share. Today, you sold all of your shares for $17.86 per share. What is your total dollar return on this investment?A) $50B) $91C) $58D) $62E) $8257) You own 850 shares of Western Feed Mills stock valued at $53.15 per share. What is the dividend yield if your total annual dividend income is $1,256?A) 2.67 percentB) 2.78 percentC) 1.83 percentD) 2.13 percentE) 2.54 percent58) West Wind Tours stock is currently selling for $52.30 a share. The stock has a dividend yield of 2.48 percent. How much dividend income will you receive per year if you purchase 600 shares of this stock?A) $824.96B) $836.20C) $724.80D) $762.00E) $778.2259) One year ago, you purchased a stock at a price of $38.22 a share. Today, you sold the stock and realized a total loss of11.09 percent on your investment. Your capital gain was –$4.68 a share. What was your dividend yield?A) 1.15 percentB) .88 percentC) 1.02 percentD) .67 percentE) .38 percent60) You just sold 427 shares of stock at a price of $19.07 a share. You purchased the stock for $18.83 a share and have received total dividends of $614. What is the total capital gain on this investment?A) $716.48B) $511.52C) $102.48D) $618.48E) $476.5261) Last year, you purchased 400 shares of Analog stock for $12.92 a share. You have received a total of $136 in dividends and $4,301 in proceeds from selling the shares. What is your capital gains yield on this stock?A) 9.09 percentB) 6.73 percentC) ?16.78 percentD) ?14.14 percentE) ?11.02 percent62) Today, you sold 540 shares of stock and realized a total return of 7.3 percent. You purchased the shares one year ago ata price of $24 a share and have received a total of $86 in dividends. What is your capital gains yield on this investment?A) 5.68 percentB) 6.64 percentC) 6.39 percentD) 7.26 percentE) 7.41 percent63) Four months ago, you purchased 900 shares of LBM stock for $7.68 a share. Last month, you received a dividend payment of $.12 a share. Today, you sold the shares for $9.13 a share. What is your total dollar return on this investment?A) $1,305B) $1,413C) $1,512D) $1,394E) $1,08064) One year ago, you purchased 100 shares of Best Wings stock at a price of $38.19 a share. The company pays an annual dividend of $.46 per share. Today, you sold for the shares for $37.92 a share. What is your total percentage return on this investment?A) 2.62 percentB) 1.93 percentC) 2.72 percentD) 1.08 percentE) .50 percent65) Suppose a stock had an initial price of $76 per share, paid a dividend of $1.42 per share during the year, and had an ending share price of $81. What was the capital gains yield?A) 6.17 percentB) 6.69 percentC) 7.05 percentD) 6.58 percentE) 5.44 percent66) Suppose you bought a $1,000 face value bond with a coupon rate of 5.6 percent one year ago. The purchase price was $987.50. You sold the bond today for $994.20. If the inflation rate last year was 2.6 percent, what was your exact real rate of return on this investment?A) 4.88 percentB) 5.32 percentC) 3.65 percentD) 3.78 percentE) 4.47 percent67) Leo purchased a stock for $63.80 a share, received a dividend of $2.68 a share and sold the shares for $59.74 each. During the time he owned the stock, inflation averaged 2.8 percent. What is his approximate real rate of return on this investment?A) ?.64 percentB) ?4.96 percentC) ?2.16 percentD) 2.16 percentE) 4.96 percent68) Christina purchased 500 shares of stock at a price of $62.30 a share and sold the shares for $64.25 each. She also received $738 in dividends. If the inflation rate was 3.9 percent, what was her exact real rate of return on this investment?A) 4.20 percentB) 1.54 percentC) 1.60 percentD) 3.95 percentE) 5.50 percent69) What is the amount of the risk premium on a U.S. Treasury bill if the risk-free rate is 3.1 percent, the inflation rate is 2.6 percent, and the market rate of return is 7.4 percent?A) 0 percentB) 2.8 percentC) .5 percentD) 1.7 percentE) 4.3 percent70) You've observed the following returns on Crash-n-Burn Computer's stock over the past five years: 7 percent, 13 percent, 19 percent, ?8 percent, and 15 percent. Suppose the average inflation rate over this time period was 2.6 percent and the average T-bill rate was 3.1 percent. Based on this information, what was the average nominal risk premium?A) 6.6 percentB) 6.1 percentC) 9.2 percentD) 1.2 percentE) 3.5 percent71) You bought one of Shark Repellant's 6 percent coupon bonds one year ago for $867. These bonds pay annual payments, have a face value of $1,000, and mature 12 years from now. Suppose you decide to sell your bonds today when the required return on the bonds is 7.4 percent. The inflation rate over the past year was 2.9 percent. What was your total real return on this investment?A) 6.48 percentB) 6.61 percentC) 8.18 percentD) 7.44 percentE) 9.70 percent72) You find a certain stock that had returns of 8 percent, ?3 percent, 12 percent, and 17 percent for four of the last five years. The average return of the stock for the past five-year period was 6 percent. What is the standard deviation of the stock's returns for the five-year period?A) 10.39 percentB) 4.98 percentC) 7.16 percentD) 9.25 percentE) 5.38 percent73) A stock had returns of 5 percent, 14 percent, 11 percent, ?8 percent, and 6 percent over the past five years. What is the standard deviation of these returns?A) 7.74 percentB) 8.21 percentC) 9.68 percentD) 8.44 percentE) 7.49 percent74) The common stock of Air Express had annual returns of 11.7 percent, 8.8 percent,16.7 percent, and ?7.9 percent over the last four years, respectively. What is thestandard deviation of these returns?A) 8.29 percentB) 9.14 percentC) 11.54 percentD) 7.78 percentE) 10.66 percent75) A stock had annual returns of 5.3 percent, ?2.7 percent, 16.2 percent, and 13.6 percentover the past four years. Which one of the following best describes the probability that this stock will produce a return of 20 percent or more in a single year?A) Less than 2.5 percent but more than .5 percentB) More than 16 percentC) Less than .5 percentD) Less than 1 percent but more than .5 percentE) Less than 16 percent but more than 2.5 percent76) A stock has an expected rate of return of 9.8 percent and a standard deviation of 15.4 percent. Which one of the following best describes the probability that this stock will lose at leasthalf of its value in any one given year?A) less than 16 percentB) less than .5 percentC) less than 1.0 percentD) less than 2.5 percentE) less than 5.0 percent77) A stock had annual returns of 11.3 percent, 9.8 percent, ?7.3 percent, and 14.6percent for the past four years. Based on this information, what is the 95 percentprobability range of returns for any one given year?A) ?2.4 to 17.5 percentB) ?2.60 to 11.80 percentC) ?12.5 to 26.7 percentD) ?10.4 to 12.3 percentE) ?10.9 to 25.1 percent78) Aimee is the owner of a stock with annual returns of 17.6 percent, ?11.7 percent, 5.6 percent, and 9.7 percent for the past four years. She thinks the stock may achieve a returnof 17 percent again this coming year. What is the probability that your friend is correct?A) Less than .5 percentB) Greater than .5 percent but less than 1 percentC) Greater than 1 percent but less than 2.5 percentD) Greater than 2.5 percent but less than 16 percentE) Greater than 16 percent79) A stock had returns of 3 percent, 12 percent, 26 percent, ?14 percent, and ?1 percent for the past five years. Based on these returns, what is the approximate probability that this stock will return at least 20 percent in any one given year?A) Approximately .1 percentB) Approximately 5 percentC) Approximately 2.5 percentD) Approximately .5 percentE) Approximately 16 percent80) A stock had returns of 14 percent, 13 percent, ?10 percent, and 7 percent for thepast four years. Which one of the following best describes the probability that this stockwill lose no more than 10 percent in any one year?A) Greater than .5 but less than 1.0 percentB) Greater than 1 percent but less than 2.5 percentC) Greater than 2.5 percent but less than 16 percentD) Greater than 84 percent but less than 97.5 percentE) Greater than 95 percent81) Over the past five years, a stock produced returns of 11 percent, 14 percent, 4percent, ?9 percent, and 5 percent. What is the probability that an investor in this stockwill not lose more than 10 percent in any one given year?。

权益市场估值和盈利的趋势投资逻辑权益市场估值和盈利的趋势投资逻辑是基于以下几点理论和观察：1. 估值与盈利的关系：股市上的公司股票价格往往与公司的盈利能力密切相关。

当公司盈利增长时，人们更愿意购买该公司的股票，导致股票价格上涨；当公司盈利下滑时，人们可能会减持或卖出股票，导致股票价格下跌。

2. 市场波动与估值调整：股市是一个涨跌的市场，价格波动是常态。

当市场热情高涨时，投资者情绪乐观，股市可能进入高估阶段；当市场情绪低迷时，股市可能进入低估阶段。

因此，市场上的股票估值往往与市场情绪和投资者情绪有关。

3. 长期投资逻辑：长期来看，公司的盈利能力和发展潜力是决定公司估值的重要因素。

一个公司如果有持续增长的盈利能力，市场往往愿意给予较高的估值；相反，如果公司盈利能力不稳定或下滑，市场可能会对其估值进行调整。

基于以上观察和理论，权益市场估值和盈利的趋势投资逻辑可以总结为以下几点：- 预测盈利趋势：投资者应该关注公司的盈利能力，并尝试预测公司未来的盈利趋势。

这可以通过分析公司的财务以及行业和经济的发展情况来实现。

如果一个公司有持续增长的盈利能力，那么它可能是一个值得投资的机会。

- 评估估值水平：投资者应该关注当前市场的估值水平，并做出相应的投资决策。

当市场估值过高时，投资者可以选择保持谨慎态度或选择卖出一部分持仓；当市场估值较低时，投资者可以选择购买股票来获得更好的投资机会。

- 长期投资：权益市场是一个长期投资的市场，投资者应该通过长期持有优质股票来获取稳定的回报。

短期的市场波动可能会影响股票价格，但对于那些具备良好盈利能力和潜力的公司来说，这些波动往往是暂时的。

因此，投资者应该关注公司的基本面，并坚定地持有优质股票。

综上所述，权益市场估值和盈利的趋势投资逻辑是基于对市场估值水平和公司盈利能力的分析和预测，并且通过长期持有优质股票来获取稳定的投资回报。