数据、模型与决策(运筹学)课后习题和案例答案012s

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CD SUPPLEMENT TO CHAPTER 12
DECISION CRITERIA Review Questions
12s-1 It might be desirable to use a decision criterion that doesn’t rely on the prior probabilities if these probabilities are not reliable.
12s-2 The maximax criterion is a very optimistic criterion that focuses on the best that can happen by choosing the alternative that can yield the maximum of the maximum payoffs.
12s-3 The maximin criterion is a very pessimistic criterion that focuses on the worst that can happen by choosing the alternative that can yield the maximum of the minimum payoffs.
12s-4 The pessimism-optimism index measures where the decision-maker falls on a scale from totally pessimistic to totally optimistic. This index is used with the realism criterion to
combine the maximax and maximin criteria.
12s-5 The maximax and maximin criteria are special cases of the realism criterion where the decision-maker is totally optimistic (index = 1) or totally pessimistic (index = 0).
12s-6 The regret from having chosen a particular decision alternative is the maximum payoff minus the actual payoff.
12s-7 The regret that can be felt afterward if the decision does not turn out well is being minimized with the minimax regret criterion.
12s-8 A totally optimistic person would find the maximax criterion appealing, while a totally pessimistic person would find the maximin criterion appealing. The realism criterion
would appeal to someone who wants to be able to choose how aggressive to be. The
minimax regret criterion would appeal to someone who spends time regretting past
decisions.
12s-9 There is no uniformly reasonable criterion that doesn’t use prior probabilities.
12s-10 The maximum likelihood criterion focuses on the most likely state of nature.
12s-11 The main criticism of the maximum likelihood criterion is that it does not consider the payoffs for the other states of nature besides the most likely.
12s-12 The equally likely criterion assumes that the states of nature are equally likely.
12s-13 The main criticism of the equally likely criterion is that it ignores any prior information about the relative likelihood of the various states of nature.
Problems 12s.1 a)
b)
c)
d)
12s.2 a)
b)
c)
d)
12s.3 a)
b)
c)
d)
12s.4 a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
f)
12s.5 a)
b)
c)
The above answers demonstrate the objection that making choices between serious alternatives can depend on irrelevant alternatives with this criterion.
12s.6 a)
b) Choose either the conservative or the counter-cyclical investment
c)
d)
e) Choose the speculative investment (maximum payoff when stable economy = $10
f)。