The Probability Density of the Higgs Boson Mass

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a r X i v :h e p -p h /0010153v 2 11 J a n 2001The Probability Density of the Mass of the Standard Model Higgs BosonJens ErlerDepartment of Physics and Astronomy,University of Pennsylvania,Philadelphia,PA 19104-6396,USA(October 2000)The LEP Collaborations have reported a small excess of events in their combined Higgs boson analysis at center of mass energies√tion function is effectively being renormalized.For ex-ample,in a previous analysis[3]we found that the Higgs exclusion curve presented by the LEP Collaborations in-creased the95%upper limit by30GeV.The use of the Higgs exclusion curve,however,is only appropriate if no indication of an excess is observed.In general,it is more appropriate to consider the likelihood ratio for the data,Q LEP2=L(data|signal+background)p(data),(6)which must be satisfied once the likelihood,p(data|M H),and prior distribution,p(M H),are specified.p(data)≡ p(data|MH)p(M H)dM H in the denominator provides the proper normalization of the posterior distribution on the left hand side.Depending on the case at hand,the prior can1.contain additional information not included in thelikelihood model,2.contain likelihood functions obtained from previousmeasurements,3.or be chosen non-informative.Of course,the posterior does not depend on how infor-mation is separated into the likelihood and the prior.As for the present case,I choose the informative prior,p(M H)=Q LEP2p non−inf(M H),(7) where the non-informative part of the prior will be chosen asp non−inf(M H)=M−1H .(8)This choice corresponds to aflat prior in the variableln M H,and there are various ways to justify it[7].Onerationale is that aflat distribution is most natural for avariable defined over all the real numbers.This is thecase for ln M H but not M2H.Also,it seems that a prioriit is equally likely that M H lies,say,between30and40GeV,or between300and400GeV.In any case,thesensitivity of the posterior to the(non-informative)priordiminishes rapidly with the inclusion of more data.Asdiscussed before,p(M H)is an improper prior but thelikelihood constructed from the precision measurementswill provide a proper posterior.Occasionally,the Bayesian method is criticized for theneed of a prior,which would introduce unnecessary sub-jectivity into the analysis.Indeed,care and good judge-ment is needed,but the same is true for the likelihoodmodel,which has to be specified in any statistical model.Moreover,it is appreciated among Bayesian practition-ers,that the explicit presence of the prior can be advan-tageous:it manifests model assumptions and allows forsensitivity checks.From the theorem(6)it is also clearthat any other method must correspond,mathematically,to specific choices for the prior.Thus,Bayesian methodsare more general and differ rather in attitude:by theirstrong emphasis on the entire posterior distribution andby theirfirst principles setup.Including Q LEP2in this way,one obtains the95%CL upper limit M H≤201GeV,i.e.notwithstandingthe observed excess events,the information provided bythe Higgs searches at LEP2increase the upper limit by28GeV.Given extra parameters,ξi,the distribution func-tion of M H is defined as the marginal distribution,p(M H|data)= p(M H,ξi|data) i p(ξi)dξi.If the like-lihood factorizes,p(M H,ξi)=p(M H)p(ξi),theξi depen-dence can be ignored.If not,but p(ξi|M H)is(approxi-mately)multivariate normal,thenχ2(M H,ξi)=χ2min(M H)+1∂ξi∂ξj(ξi−ξi min(M H))(ξj−ξj min(M H)).The latter applies to our case,whereξi=(m t,αs,α(M Z)).Integration yields,p(M H|data)∼√∂ξi∂ξj)−1,introducesa correction factor with a mild M H dependence.It cor-responds to a shift relative to the standard likelihoodmodel,χ2(M H)=χ2min(M H)+∆χ2(M H),where∆χ2(M H)≡lndet E(M H)FIG.2.Probability distribution function for the Higgs boson mass.The probability is shown for bin sizes of1GeV. Included are all available direct and indirect data.The shaded and unshaded regions each mark50%probability.I also include theory uncertainties from uncalculated higher orders.This increases the upper limit by5GeV, M H≤205GeV(95%CL).(11) The entire probability distribution is shown in Fig.2. Taking the data at face value,there is(as expected) a significant peak around M H=115GeV,but more than half of the probability is for Higgs boson masses above the kinematic reach of LEP2(the median is at M H=119GeV).However,if one would double the in-tegrated luminosity and assume that the results would be similar to the present ones,one wouldfind most of the probability concentrated around the peak.A similar statement will apply to Run II of the Tevatron at a time when about3to5fb−1of data have been collected. The described method is robust within the SM,but it should be cautioned that M H extracted from the preci-sion data is strongly correlated with certain new physics parameters.Likewise,the Higgs searches at LEP2de-pend on the predictions of signal and background expec-tations which are strictly calculable only within a spec-ified theory.This note focussed on the Standard Model Higgs boson.Acknowledgements:This work was supported in part by the US Depart-ment of Energy grant EY–76–02–3071.。