PERCs,DECs and Other Mandatory Convertibles
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翻译二级笔译综合能力分类模拟题18(总分100,考试时间90分钟)Reading ComprehensionAnyone who doubts that children are born with a healthy amount of ambition need spend only a few minutes with a baby eagerly learning to walk or a headstrong toddler starting to talk. No matter how many times the little ones stumble in their initial efforts, most keep on trying, determined to master their amazing new skill. It is only several years later, around the start of middle or junior high school, many psychologists and teachers agree, that a good number of kids seem to lose their natural drive to succeed and end up joining the ranks of underachievers. For the parents of such kids, whose own ambition is often inseparately tied to their children"s success, it can be abewildering, painful experience. So it is no wonder some parents find themselves hoping that ambition can be taught like any other subject at school.It"s not quite that simple. "Kids can be given the opportunities, but they can"t be forced," says Jacquelynne Eccles, a psychology professor at the University of Michigan who led a study examining what motivated first- and seventh-graders in three school districts. Even so, a growing number of educators and psychologists do believe it is possible tounearthambition in students who don"t seem to have much. They say that by instilling confidence, encouraging some risk taking, being accepting of failure and expanding the areas in which children may be successful, both parents and teachers canreignitethat innate desire to achieve.Dubbed Brainology, the unorthodox approach uses basic neuroscience to teach kids how the brain works and how it can continue to develop throughout life. The message is that everything is within the kids" control, that their intelligence ismalleable.Some experts say our education system, with its strong emphasis on testing and rigid separation of students into different levels of ability, also bears blame for the disappearance of drive in some kids. Some educators say it"s important to expose kids to a world beyond homework and tests, through volunteer work, sports, hobbies and other extracurricular activities. "The crux of the issue is that many students experience education as irrelevant to their life goals and ambitions," says Michael Nakkula, a Harvard education professor who runs a Boston-area mentoring program called Project IF (Inventing the Future), which works to get low-income underachievers in touch with theiraspirations. The key to getting kids to aim higher at school is to tell them the notion that classwork is irrelevant is not true, to show them how doing well at school can actually help them fulfill their dreams beyond it. Like any ambitious toddler, they need to understand that they have to learn to walk before they can run.1. The word "bewildering" underlined in Paragraph 1 is closest in meaning to ______.A. puzzlingB. unbelievableC. unpleasantD. awkward2. The passage is mainly about ______.A. when in one"s life ambition is most neededB. what to do to reform the education systemC. why parents of underachievers are ambitiousD. how to help school children develop their ambition3. The word "unearth" underlined in Paragraph 2 is closest in meaning to ______.A. discoverB. seekC. pursuitD. analyze4. According to the passage, most educators believe that many kids ______.A. show a lack of academic ambition at birthB. amaze their parents by acting like adultsC. become less ambitious as they grow upD. get increasingly afraid of failing in school5. The word "reignite" underlined in Paragraph 2 is closest in meaning to ______.A. rekindleB. confirmC. find outD. strike6. Paragraph 1 mentions some parents who would see their kids" failure as ______.A. naturalB. trivialC. intolerableD. understandable7. The word "malleable" in Paragraph 3 most probably means ______.A. justifiableB. flexibleC. uncountableD. desirable8. Some experts suggest that many kids lose ambition in school because they are ______.A. cut off from the outside worldB. exposed to school work onlyC. kept away from **petitionD. labeled as inferior to others9. The word "aspirations" underlined in Paragraph 4 refers to ______.A. ambitionB. careeC. goalD. project10. The last paragraph implies ______.A. the effectiveness of Project IFB. the significance of classworkC. the importance of walking to runningD. the attainment of different life goalsJan Hendrik Schon"s success seemed too good to be true, and it was. In only four years as a physicist at Bell Laboratories, Schon, 32, had co-authored 90 scientific papers—one every 16 days—detailing new discoveries in superconductivity, lasers, nanotechnology and quantum physics. This output astonished his colleagues, and made themsuspicious. When one co-worker noticed that the same table of data appeared in two separate papers—which also happened to appear in the two most prestigious scientific journals in the world, Science andNature—the jig was up. In October 2002, a Bell Labs investigation found that Schon had falsified andfabricateddata. His career as a scientist was finished. Scientific scandals, which are as old asscience itself, tend to follow similar patterns of presumption and due reward.In recent years, of course, the pressure on scientists to publish in the top journals has increased, making the journals much more crucial to career success. The questions are whether Nature and Science have become too powerful as arbiters of what science reaches to the public, and whether the journals are up to their task as gatekeepers.Each scientific specialty has its own set of journals. Physicists have Physical Review Letters, neuroscientists have Neuron, and so forth. Science and Nature, though, are the only two major journals that cover the gamut of scientific disciplines, from meteorology and zoology to quantum physics and chemistry. As a result, journalists look to them each week for the cream of the crop of new science papers. And scientists look to the journals in part to reach journalists. Why do they care? Competition for grants has gotten so fierce that scientists have sought popularrenownto gain an edge over their rivals. Publication in specialized journals will win theacclaimsfrom academics and satisfy the publish-or-perish imperative, **e with the added bonus of potentially getting your paper written up inThe New YorkTimes and other publications.Scientists tend to pay more attention to the big two than to other journals. When more scientists know about a particular paper, they"re more apt to cite it in their own papers. Being oft-cited will increase a scientist"s "hnpact Factor," a measure of how often papers are cited by peers. Funding agencies use the "Impact Factor" as a rough measure of the influence of scientists they"re considering supporting.11. The word "suspicious" underlined in Paragraph 1 is closest in meaning to ______.A. doubtfulB. incredibleC. stupendousD. horrendous12. The achievements of Jan Hendrik Schon turned out to be ______.A. surprisingB. inconceivableC. praiseworthyD. fraudulent13. The word "fabricated" underlined in Paragraph 1 is closest in meaning to ______.A. fakeB. compileC. draw upD. analyze14. To find why scientific scandals like Schon"s occur, people have begun to raise doubt about the two top journals for ______.A. their academic prestigeB. their importance to career successC. their popularity with scientific circlesD. their reviewing system15. The word "renown" underlined in Paragraph 3 is closest in meaning to ______.A. reputationB. purposeC. nameD. achievement16. According to the passage, what makes Science and Nature powerful?A. They cover the best researches on a variety of subjects.B. They publish controversial papers that others won"t.C. They prefer papers on highly specialized research.D. They have a special system of peer-review.17. The expression "the cream of the crop" in Paragraph 3 most likely means "______".A. the most of allB. the best of allC. the recently releasedD. the widely spread18. The word "acclaims" underlined in Paragraph 3 refers to ______.A. complimentB. prizeC. bonusD. core19. Scientists know that by reaching the journalists for Science and Nature they would get a better chance to ______.A. have more of their papers published in the journals in the futureB. have their names appear in many other renown publicationsC. have their research results understood by the general publicD. have their superiors give them monetary award for the publication20. Compared with other journals, Nature and Science would give the authors an extra benefit that their papers ______.A. will be more likely to become influential and be citedB. will be more likely to be free from challenge by peersC. will be reviewed with greater care to ensure the authorityD. will reappear in their original in papers like New York TimesThis leaves us with the challenge of finding some politically practicable way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. But it is an awkward truth that when most U.S. senators were asked informally in 2000 if they would support the Kyoto Protocol should President George W. Bush send it to the Senate forratification, the overwhelming majority, Democrats as well as Republicans, said they could not. The reason for the liberals"surprising reply is clear. Many studies, not all by conservatives, suggest that **pliancewith the terms of the Kyoto Protocol would likely lead to a deep American recession. For those willing to Fun this risk, sober reflection on the consequences of the economic collapse of 1929 and the subsequent worldwide depression with all its political and ultimately military consequences is certainly in order.That said, what can be done, in particular by our own country? Independent of the issues raised by the Kyoto Protocol, and given the weight of evidence that the problem of global warming is serious and fraught withdireconsequences, failure to do anything at all and instead to promote "business as usual" isdownrightcriminal.Yet the Bush administration has given no more than lip service to the problem, though that could be changing. It is one thing to weigh alternatives and **promises that reflect **plexity of the problem; it is quite another thing to do nothing, especially if doing nothing is just a way of securing support from certain industries that worsen the problem.There are, after all, things that can be done. Reopening a serious international dialogue, and not just saying a few good words, would be a useful if inadequate start. Not every problem must be solved before the weight of evidence becomes so compelling that certain initial steps become almost mandatory. We already know how to make more fuel-efficient automobiles, yet no national policy has surfaced to accomplish this. The scientific and **munities are the ones best suited to identify the scientific research that is still needed and the technical projects that show the greatest promise. These issues should be decided by them and not the politicians. Once solutions look promising, as a few already do, industry will be all too ready to jump in, for at that stage there is money to be made. And only a fool would underestimate human ingenuity when given a properincentive, or the strength of American industry once the boiler is lit under it.21. The word "ratification" underlined in Paragraph 1 is closest in meaning to ______.A. approvalB. agreementC. authorizationD. confirmation22. What can be inferred about the Kyoto Protocol from Paragraph 1?A. It was about environment protection.B. It was supported by most Democrats.C. It was considered awkward by conservatives.D. It was officially rejected by most US senators.23. The word "compliance" underlined in Paragraph 1 is closest in meaning to ______.A. obedienceB. submissionC. subjectionD. procrastination24. Many studies suggest that full agreement with the Kyoto Protocol would run the risk of ______.A. falling victim to military warfareB. offending other countriesC. re-experiencing the past miseriesD. provoking nationwide anger25. We can learn from Paragraph 2 that ______.A. measures should be taken to deal with global warming.B. the best way to deal with global warming is "let it be".C. the seriousness of global warming has been exaggerated.D. promoting "business as usual" must be further stressed.26. The word "dire" underlined in Paragraph 2 is closest in meaning to ______.A. horribleB. immeasurableC. incalculableD. inhuman27. The Bush administration ______.A. has assisted in aggravating global warmingB. has taken no measures against global warmingC. has **promises about global warmingD. has got big industries" support to stop global warming28. The author suggests all of the following measures EXCEPT ______.A. reopening a serious international dialogueB. **ing all difficulties before startingC. conducting scientific researches concernedD. doing the most promising technical projects29. The word "downright" underlined in Paragraph 2 refers to ______.A. completeB. realC. meaningfulD. especial30. In the last paragraph, the expression "once the boiler is lit under it" most probably means "when American industry is ______."A. underminedB. upgradedC. incensedD. stimulatedIt seems incredible to me that Latin is not taught in schools as a matter of course, especially in acountry that is foreverlamentingits own (undeniable) mediocrity when it comes to speaking foreign languages. As a 13-year-old, I hardly approached my own Latin lessons with anything resembling enthusiasm—I might have been keener if Aeneas went to the shops occasionally—but I am terrifically grateful I had them, all the same.The benefits are many. Having a basic grounding in Latin makes learning Romance languages a doddle(轻而易举的事): the fact that I speak English plus three others has less to do with any genetic predisposition—I was hopeless at learning Russian—than with an understanding of the root andprovenanceof Latin-derived words.It would be impossible to have asmatteringof Latin and find oneself stuck in Italy, provided one managed to persuade the speaker to slow down a bit. And the reason I can (arguably) just about string a sentence together in English—which isn"t my first language—has a great deal to do with understanding, through Latin, the way sentences and grammar work.Latin also has its own pleasing internal logic: you follow the rules and you get the answer. And I really believe that if you know Latin, you half-speak French already. The British used not to be appalling at languages: my theory is that they only became so during the past century, when Latin stopped being widely taught.Detractors (恶意批评者) might point out that there is little use in learning a dead language. But Latin is not dead: it"s everywhere. It makes the kind of people who never use two short words when six big ones will dointelligible. It demystifies jargon and legalese. It helps with crosswords. It even forces those of us who are pathologically illogical to think logically every once in a while: I remember the pleasure I felt at school, during Latin translation, when I realized I could create order and sense out of apparent chaos.Really, Latin"s useful applications are manifold. Watching Who Wants To Be A Millionaire? a few weeks ago, I noticed that the question which felled the contestant would almost certainly not have stumped him had he had some Latin. Of all the possible answers, only one had a Latin root that echoed the question. From Cicero to Chris Tarrant in a few easy steps, you can"t say more modern or less dusty than that.31. The word "lamenting" underlined in Paragraph 1 is closest in meaning to ______.A. mournB. weepC. condoleD. grieve over32. As a teenager, the author ______.A. had a keen interest in LatinB. had never showed any interest in LatinC. quit soon after he took the Latin courseD. was satisfied with his or her Latin course33. The word "provenance" underlined in Paragraph 2 is closest in meaning to ______.A. originB. genesisC. headspringD. filiation34. In paragraph 3, the author believes that knowing a little about Latin helps one ______.A. to speak Italian betterB. to figure out what an Italian saysC. to understand Italian historyD. to make friends with Italians35. The word "a smattering" underlined in Paragraph 3 is closest in meaning to ______.A. a little knowledgeB. a lotC. plenty ofD. little knowledge36. According to paragraph 4, the British ______.A. have always been terrible in learning LatinB. used to be good at languages when Latin was taughtC. became good at languages when people stopped learning LatinD. used to be terrible in languages when Latin was taught37. One of the benefits to learn Latin is that ______.A. it makes it easier to learn some other languagesB. it helps a lot in learning RussianC. it helps to improve mental healthD. it helps the writer speak four tongues38. The word "intelligible" underlined in Paragraph 5 refers to ______.A. transpicuousB. explicitC. implicitD. detailed39. That Latin is not dead is shown by all of the following EXCEPT ______.A. some difficult technical words become easy to understandB. crossword puzzles become easy to be solvedC. some people become more logical in their way of thinkingD. some people become more self-confident40. The contestant could have won if he/she ______.A. had not been beaten by some legal wordsB. had known something about LatinC. had not been so eager to be a millionaireD. had asked the question about Cicero。
整合心理治疗The IPT program was developed to reduce basic cognitive deficits inschizophrenic patients. This program consists of cognitive-behavioral training divided into five subprograms: 1) cognitive differentiation; 2)social perception; 3) verbal communication; 4) social skills; and 5)interpersonal problem solving. Each subprogram consists of steps of increasing complexity. The first subprogram is centered on the development of basic cognitive functions (attention, concentration, perception and motivation). The last two subprograms focus on social skills, social interaction and problem-solving abilities. The IPT techniques include instruction, model learning, role-playing, feedback and positive reinforcement, with the response training on family and social interaction, leisure and relevant social interactions.认知矫正治疗Cognitive remediation therapy (CRT), also called cognitive enhancement therapy (CET), is designed to improve neurocognitive abilities such as attention, working memory, cognitive flexibility and planning, and executive functioning which leads to improved social functioning.The procedure for CRT is set out in a manual(Delahunty et al., 1999). Participants received 40 hourly sessions at an average rate of 3 per week. In each session, a variety of tasks was presented to practice the component processes in remembering, complex planning and problem solving. The tasks were graded in difficulty with easier ones being presented early in the program. At first, information processing strategies or means to organize behaviour were incorporated into the tasks as the participant is unable to undertake these independently. The therapist also discussed information processing strategies and the regulation, organization and monitoring of behaviour for each task in order to produce few errors. The three steps of this process are as follows: (a) therapist demonstrated the information processing overtly, (b) the patient used such methods overtly, and (c) the patient used these methods covertly. There was an increase in the amount of covert use of these processing strategies as the participant moved through the program. Following initial training, therapist fidelity was monitored through direct observation and regular supervision was provided.认知适应训练CAT is a psychosocial intervention that aims to improve daily functioning by bypassing the impact of cognitive deficits and by stimulating functional behavior.Cognitive adaptation trainingClinical and environmental risk assessment A clinical and environmental risk assessment was conducted by the CAT therapist at baseline and repeated 3-monthly to determine the level of risk to the CAT therapist regarding home visits. Assessment of risk included past history of violence towards self/others, criminal history, current threats of violence to self/others, past/current substance abuse, paranoid ideation and environmental risks (e.g. co-habitants, pets, weapons). If risk was rated>‘low’, the participant was excluded or withdrawn from the study.Cognition and executive behaviourTo individually tailor the CAT intervention,a brief cognitive battery was administered at baseline to determine cognitive strengths and weaknesses.Executive functioning was measured with the Wisconsin Card Sorting Test-modified version and Controlled Oral Word Association Test,yielding a classification of ‘fair’ or ‘poor’. Other tests administered included Continuous Performance TestIdentical Pairs, MATRICS version;California Verbal Learning Test – Second Edition;Digit Span subtest of the WAIS-III;Symbol-Digit Modalities Test; and Trail-Making Test.The Wechsler Test of Adult Reading was administered to estimate pre-morbid IQ.CAT techniques are also guided by the executive behaviour displayed by the participant, measured using the Frontal Systems Behavior Scale (FrSBe). Where possible, the Family Rating Form was used; otherwise, theSelf-Rating Form was administered. The FrSBe comprises 46 items describing behaviours that may interfere with goal-directed activity. Overt behavioural type is profiled according to three subscales: (i) apathy (poor initiation); (ii) disinhibition (distractibility, impulsivity); and (iii) executive dysfunction (poor planning and sequencing). Participants’ executive functioning classification and behavioural profile (apathy, disinhibited or mixed) were used to plan the CAT Strategies.认知加强治疗CET is a performance based, comprehensive, developmental approach to the rehabilitation of social cognitive and neurocognitivedeficits. Participants work at recovery through structured group andcomputer exercises. CET is designed as a recovery phase intervention for symptomatically stable persons with severe mental illness, whononetheless remain socially and vocationally disabled. Overall, CET attempts to increase mental stamina, active information processing, and the spontaneous negotiation of unrehearsed social challenges. It does so with a focus on enhancing perspective taking, social context appraisal, and other components of social cognition.Cognitive enhancement therapy is a small-group approach that combines approximately 75 hours of progressive software training exercises in attention, memory, and problem solving with 1.5 hours per week of social cognitive group exercises (approximately 56 sessions). A group (6 patients) began to meet 4 to 6 months after the initiation of attention training. Software exercises required that patients work in pairs, offer mutual support and encouragement, respond to online Socratic coaching, and use the cueing and fading of prompts until the principles underlying test performance were mastered. Three attention training components of Ben-Yishay’s Orientation Remediation Module were used (the Attention Reaction Conditioner, Zero Accuracy Conditioner and Time Estimates) that are graduated in difficulty and designed to enhance vigilance, selective attention, the ability to shift between auditory and visual modalities, and rapid decision making. Attention training was followed by 7 memory routines and ultimately 7 problem-solving exercises from the Bracy PSSCogReHab program that represented the Trail Trace, Spatial Memory (sequenced and objects and location), Recall Recognition, Visual/Spatial Memory, Paired Associates and Verbal Memory (categories) exercises. The goal was to develop memory skills through the enhancement of a categorizing capacity, an abstracting attitude, cognitive flexibility, and decision making. Problem-solving exercises included Designer Patterns, Numbers Manipulation I and II, Reversals, Logicmaster, Deduction, and Checker Exchange. These engaging exercises targeted analytic logic, effortful decision making, strategic and foresightful planning, and the intuitive thinking that supports social cognition.。
Conditional Random Fields:Probabilistic Modelsfor Segmenting and Labeling Sequence DataJohn Lafferty LAFFERTY@ Andrew McCallum MCCALLUM@ Fernando Pereira FPEREIRA@ WhizBang!Labs–Research,4616Henry Street,Pittsburgh,PA15213USASchool of Computer Science,Carnegie Mellon University,Pittsburgh,PA15213USADepartment of Computer and Information Science,University of Pennsylvania,Philadelphia,PA19104USAAbstractWe present,a frame-work for building probabilistic models to seg-ment and label sequence data.Conditional ran-domfields offer several advantages over hid-den Markov models and stochastic grammarsfor such tasks,including the ability to relaxstrong independence assumptions made in thosemodels.Conditional randomfields also avoida fundamental limitation of maximum entropyMarkov models(MEMMs)and other discrimi-native Markov models based on directed graph-ical models,which can be biased towards stateswith few successor states.We present iterativeparameter estimation algorithms for conditionalrandomfields and compare the performance ofthe resulting models to HMMs and MEMMs onsynthetic and natural-language data.1.IntroductionThe need to segment and label sequences arises in many different problems in several scientificfields.Hidden Markov models(HMMs)and stochastic grammars are well understood and widely used probabilistic models for such problems.In computational biology,HMMs and stochas-tic grammars have been successfully used to align bio-logical sequences,find sequences homologous to a known evolutionary family,and analyze RNA secondary structure (Durbin et al.,1998).In computational linguistics and computer science,HMMs and stochastic grammars have been applied to a wide variety of problems in text and speech processing,including topic segmentation,part-of-speech(POS)tagging,information extraction,and syntac-tic disambiguation(Manning&Sch¨u tze,1999).HMMs and stochastic grammars are generative models,as-signing a joint probability to paired observation and label sequences;the parameters are typically trained to maxi-mize the joint likelihood of training examples.To define a joint probability over observation and label sequences, a generative model needs to enumerate all possible ob-servation sequences,typically requiring a representation in which observations are task-appropriate atomic entities, such as words or nucleotides.In particular,it is not practi-cal to represent multiple interacting features or long-range dependencies of the observations,since the inference prob-lem for such models is intractable.This difficulty is one of the main motivations for looking at conditional models as an alternative.A conditional model specifies the probabilities of possible label sequences given an observation sequence.Therefore,it does not expend modeling effort on the observations,which at test time arefixed anyway.Furthermore,the conditional probabil-ity of the label sequence can depend on arbitrary,non-independent features of the observation sequence without forcing the model to account for the distribution of those dependencies.The chosen features may represent attributes at different levels of granularity of the same observations (for example,words and characters in English text),or aggregate properties of the observation sequence(for in-stance,text layout).The probability of a transition between labels may depend not only on the current observation, but also on past and future observations,if available.In contrast,generative models must make very strict indepen-dence assumptions on the observations,for instance condi-tional independence given the labels,to achieve tractability. Maximum entropy Markov models(MEMMs)are condi-tional probabilistic sequence models that attain all of the above advantages(McCallum et al.,2000).In MEMMs, each source state1has a exponential model that takes the observation features as input,and outputs a distribution over possible next states.These exponential models are trained by an appropriate iterative scaling method in the 1Output labels are associated with states;it is possible for sev-eral states to have the same label,but for simplicity in the rest of this paper we assume a one-to-one correspondence.maximum entropy framework.Previously published exper-imental results show MEMMs increasing recall and dou-bling precision relative to HMMs in a FAQ segmentation task.MEMMs and other non-generativefinite-state models based on next-state classifiers,such as discriminative Markov models(Bottou,1991),share a weakness we callhere the:the transitions leaving a given state compete only against each other,rather than againstall other transitions in the model.In probabilistic terms, transition scores are the conditional probabilities of pos-sible next states given the current state and the observa-tion sequence.This per-state normalization of transition scores implies a“conservation of score mass”(Bottou, 1991)whereby all the mass that arrives at a state must be distributed among the possible successor states.An obser-vation can affect which destination states get the mass,but not how much total mass to pass on.This causes a bias to-ward states with fewer outgoing transitions.In the extreme case,a state with a single outgoing transition effectively ignores the observation.In those cases,unlike in HMMs, Viterbi decoding cannot downgrade a branch based on ob-servations after the branch point,and models with state-transition structures that have sparsely connected chains of states are not properly handled.The Markovian assump-tions in MEMMs and similar state-conditional models in-sulate decisions at one state from future decisions in a way that does not match the actual dependencies between con-secutive states.This paper introduces(CRFs),a sequence modeling framework that has all the advantages of MEMMs but also solves the label bias problem in a principled way.The critical difference between CRFs and MEMMs is that a MEMM uses per-state exponential mod-els for the conditional probabilities of next states given the current state,while a CRF has a single exponential model for the joint probability of the entire sequence of labels given the observation sequence.Therefore,the weights of different features at different states can be traded off against each other.We can also think of a CRF as afinite state model with un-normalized transition probabilities.However,unlike some other weightedfinite-state approaches(LeCun et al.,1998), CRFs assign a well-defined probability distribution over possible labelings,trained by maximum likelihood or MAP estimation.Furthermore,the loss function is convex,2guar-anteeing convergence to the global optimum.CRFs also generalize easily to analogues of stochastic context-free grammars that would be useful in such problems as RNA secondary structure prediction and natural language pro-cessing.2In the case of fully observable states,as we are discussing here;if several states have the same label,the usual local maxima of Baum-Welch arise.bel bias example,after(Bottou,1991).For concise-ness,we place observation-label pairs on transitions rather than states;the symbol‘’represents the null output label.We present the model,describe two training procedures and sketch a proof of convergence.We also give experimental results on synthetic data showing that CRFs solve the clas-sical version of the label bias problem,and,more signifi-cantly,that CRFs perform better than HMMs and MEMMs when the true data distribution has higher-order dependen-cies than the model,as is often the case in practice.Finally, we confirm these results as well as the claimed advantages of conditional models by evaluating HMMs,MEMMs and CRFs with identical state structure on a part-of-speech tag-ging task.2.The Label Bias ProblemClassical probabilistic automata(Paz,1971),discrimina-tive Markov models(Bottou,1991),maximum entropy taggers(Ratnaparkhi,1996),and MEMMs,as well as non-probabilistic sequence tagging and segmentation mod-els with independently trained next-state classifiers(Pun-yakanok&Roth,2001)are all potential victims of the label bias problem.For example,Figure1represents a simplefinite-state model designed to distinguish between the two words and.Suppose that the observation sequence is. In thefirst time step,matches both transitions from the start state,so the probability mass gets distributed roughly equally among those two transitions.Next we observe. Both states1and4have only one outgoing transition.State 1has seen this observation often in training,state4has al-most never seen this observation;but like state1,state4 has no choice but to pass all its mass to its single outgoing transition,since it is not generating the observation,only conditioning on it.Thus,states with a single outgoing tran-sition effectively ignore their observations.More generally, states with low-entropy next state distributions will take lit-tle notice of observations.Returning to the example,the top path and the bottom path will be about equally likely, independently of the observation sequence.If one of the two words is slightly more common in the training set,the transitions out of the start state will slightly prefer its cor-responding transition,and that word’s state sequence will always win.This behavior is demonstrated experimentally in Section5.L´e on Bottou(1991)discussed two solutions for the label bias problem.One is to change the state-transition struc-ture of the model.In the above example we could collapse states1and4,and delay the branching until we get a dis-criminating observation.This operation is a special case of determinization(Mohri,1997),but determinization of weightedfinite-state machines is not always possible,and even when possible,it may lead to combinatorial explo-sion.The other solution mentioned is to start with a fully-connected model and let the training procedurefigure out a good structure.But that would preclude the use of prior structural knowledge that has proven so valuable in infor-mation extraction tasks(Freitag&McCallum,2000). Proper solutions require models that account for whole state sequences at once by letting some transitions“vote”more strongly than others depending on the corresponding observations.This implies that score mass will not be con-served,but instead individual transitions can“amplify”or “dampen”the mass they receive.In the above example,the transitions from the start state would have a very weak ef-fect on path score,while the transitions from states1and4 would have much stronger effects,amplifying or damping depending on the actual observation,and a proportionally higher contribution to the selection of the Viterbi path.3In the related work section we discuss other heuristic model classes that account for state sequences globally rather than locally.To the best of our knowledge,CRFs are the only model class that does this in a purely probabilistic setting, with guaranteed global maximum likelihood convergence.3.Conditional Random FieldsIn what follows,is a random variable over data se-quences to be labeled,and is a random variable over corresponding label sequences.All components of are assumed to range over afinite label alphabet.For ex-ample,might range over natural language sentences and range over part-of-speech taggings of those sentences, with the set of possible part-of-speech tags.The ran-dom variables and are jointly distributed,but in a dis-criminative framework we construct a conditional model from paired observation and label sequences,and do not explicitly model the marginal..Thus,a CRF is a randomfield globally conditioned on the observation.Throughout the paper we tacitly assume that the graph isfixed.In the simplest and most impor-3Weighted determinization and minimization techniques shift transition weights while preserving overall path weight(Mohri, 2000);their connection to this discussion deserves further study.tant example for modeling sequences,is a simple chain or line:.may also have a natural graph structure;yet in gen-eral it is not necessary to assume that and have the same graphical structure,or even that has any graph-ical structure at all.However,in this paper we will be most concerned with sequencesand.If the graph of is a tree(of which a chain is the simplest example),its cliques are the edges and ver-tices.Therefore,by the fundamental theorem of random fields(Hammersley&Clifford,1971),the joint distribu-tion over the label sequence given has the form(1),where is a data sequence,a label sequence,and is the set of components of associated with the vertices in subgraph.We assume that the and are given andfixed. For example,a Boolean vertex feature might be true if the word is upper case and the tag is“proper noun.”The parameter estimation problem is to determine the pa-rameters from training datawith empirical distribution. In Section4we describe an iterative scaling algorithm that maximizes the log-likelihood objective function:.As a particular case,we can construct an HMM-like CRF by defining one feature for each state pair,and one feature for each state-observation pair:. The corresponding parameters and play a simi-lar role to the(logarithms of the)usual HMM parameters and.Boltzmann chain models(Saul&Jor-dan,1996;MacKay,1996)have a similar form but use a single normalization constant to yield a joint distribution, whereas CRFs use the observation-dependent normaliza-tion for conditional distributions.Although it encompasses HMM-like models,the class of conditional randomfields is much more expressive,be-cause it allows arbitrary dependencies on the observationFigure2.Graphical structures of simple HMMs(left),MEMMs(center),and the chain-structured case of CRFs(right)for sequences. An open circle indicates that the variable is not generated by the model.sequence.In addition,the features do not need to specify completely a state or observation,so one might expect that the model can be estimated from less training data.Another attractive property is the convexity of the loss function;in-deed,CRFs share all of the convexity properties of general maximum entropy models.For the remainder of the paper we assume that the depen-dencies of,conditioned on,form a chain.To sim-plify some expressions,we add special start and stop states and.Thus,we will be using the graphical structure shown in Figure2.For a chain struc-ture,the conditional probability of a label sequence can be expressed concisely in matrix form,which will be useful in describing the parameter estimation and inference al-gorithms in Section4.Suppose that is a CRF given by(1).For each position in the observation se-quence,we define the matrix random variableby,where is the edge with labels and is the vertex with label.In contrast to generative models,con-ditional models like CRFs do not need to enumerate over all possible observation sequences,and therefore these matrices can be computed directly as needed from a given training or test observation sequence and the parameter vector.Then the normalization(partition function)is the entry of the product of these matrices:. Using this notation,the conditional probability of a label sequence is written as, where and.4.Parameter Estimation for CRFsWe now describe two iterative scaling algorithms tofind the parameter vector that maximizes the log-likelihood of the training data.Both algorithms are based on the im-proved iterative scaling(IIS)algorithm of Della Pietra et al. (1997);the proof technique based on auxiliary functions can be extended to show convergence of the algorithms for CRFs.Iterative scaling algorithms update the weights asand for appropriately chosen and.In particular,the IIS update for an edge feature is the solution ofdef.where is thedef. The equations for vertex feature updates have similar form.However,efficiently computing the exponential sums on the right-hand sides of these equations is problematic,be-cause is a global property of,and dynamic programming will sum over sequences with potentially varying.To deal with this,thefirst algorithm,Algorithm S,uses a“slack feature.”The second,Algorithm T,keepstrack of partial totals.For Algorithm S,we define the bydef,where is a constant chosen so that for all and all observation vectors in the training set,thus making.Feature is“global,”that is,it does not correspond to any particular edge or vertex.For each index we now define thewith base caseifotherwiseand recurrence.Similarly,the are defined byifotherwiseand.With these definitions,the update equations are,where.The factors involving the forward and backward vectors in the above equations have the same meaning as for standard hidden Markov models.For example,is the marginal probability of label given that the observation sequence is.This algorithm is closely related to the algorithm of Darroch and Ratcliff(1972),and MART algorithms used in image reconstruction.The constant in Algorithm S can be quite large,since in practice it is proportional to the length of the longest train-ing observation sequence.As a result,the algorithm may converge slowly,taking very small steps toward the maxi-mum in each iteration.If the length of the observations and the number of active features varies greatly,a faster-converging algorithm can be obtained by keeping track of feature totals for each observation sequence separately. Let def.Algorithm T accumulates feature expectations into counters indexed by.More specifically,we use the forward-backward recurrences just introduced to compute the expectations of feature and of feature given that.Then our param-eter updates are and,whereand are the unique positive roots to the following polynomial equationsmax max,(2)which can be easily computed by Newton’s method.A single iteration of Algorithm S and Algorithm T has roughly the same time and space complexity as the well known Baum-Welch algorithm for HMMs.To prove con-vergence of our algorithms,we can derive an auxiliary function to bound the change in likelihood from below;this method is developed in detail by Della Pietra et al.(1997). The full proof is somewhat detailed;however,here we give an idea of how to derive the auxiliary function.To simplify notation,we assume only edge features with parameters .Given two parameter settings and,we bound from below the change in the objective function with anas followsdefwhere the inequalities follow from the convexity of and.Differentiating with respect to and setting the result to zero yields equation(2).5.ExperimentsWefirst discuss two sets of experiments with synthetic data that highlight the differences between CRFs and MEMMs. Thefirst experiments are a direct verification of the label bias problem discussed in Section2.In the second set of experiments,we generate synthetic data using randomly chosen hidden Markov models,each of which is a mix-ture of afirst-order and second-order peting models are then trained and compared on test data.As the data becomes more second-order,the test er-ror rates of the trained models increase.This experiment corresponds to the common modeling practice of approxi-mating complex local and long-range dependencies,as oc-cur in natural data,by small-order Markov models.OurFigure3.Plots of error rates for HMMs,CRFs,and MEMMs on randomly generated synthetic data sets,as described in Section5.2. As the data becomes“more second order,”the error rates of the test models increase.As shown in the left plot,the CRF typically significantly outperforms the MEMM.The center plot shows that the HMM outperforms the MEMM.In the right plot,each open square represents a data set with,and a solid circle indicates a data set with.The plot shows that when the data is mostly second order(),the discriminatively trained CRF typically outperforms the HMM.These experiments are not designed to demonstrate the advantages of the additional representational power of CRFs and MEMMs relative to HMMs.results clearly indicate that even when the models are pa-rameterized in exactly the same way,CRFs are more ro-bust to inaccurate modeling assumptions than MEMMs or HMMs,and resolve the label bias problem,which affects the performance of MEMMs.To avoid confusion of dif-ferent effects,the MEMMs and CRFs in these experiments use overlapping features of the observations.Fi-nally,in a set of POS tagging experiments,we confirm the advantage of CRFs over MEMMs.We also show that the addition of overlapping features to CRFs and MEMMs al-lows them to perform much better than HMMs,as already shown for MEMMs by McCallum et al.(2000).5.1Modeling label biasWe generate data from a simple HMM which encodes a noisy version of thefinite-state network in Figure1.Each state emits its designated symbol with probabilityand any of the other symbols with probability.We train both an MEMM and a CRF with the same topologies on the data generated by the HMM.The observation fea-tures are simply the identity of the observation symbols. In a typical run using training and test samples, trained to convergence of the iterative scaling algorithm, the CRF error is while the MEMM error is, showing that the MEMM fails to discriminate between the two branches.5.2Modeling mixed-order sourcesFor these results,we usefive labels,(),and26 observation values,();however,the results were qualitatively the same over a range of sizes for and .We generate data from a mixed-order HMM with state transition probabilities given byand,simi-larly,emission probabilities given by.Thus,for we have a standardfirst-order HMM.In order to limit the size of the Bayes error rate for the resulting models,the con-ditional probability tables are constrained to be sparse. In particular,can have at most two nonzero en-tries,for each,and can have at most three nonzero entries for each.For each randomly gener-ated model,a sample of1,000sequences of length25is generated for training and testing.On each randomly generated training set,a CRF is trained using Algorithm S.(Note that since the length of the se-quences and number of active features is constant,Algo-rithms S and T are identical.)The algorithm is fairly slow to converge,typically taking approximately500iterations for the model to stabilize.On the500MHz Pentium PC used in our experiments,each iteration takes approximately 0.2seconds.On the same data an MEMM is trained using iterative scaling,which does not require forward-backward calculations,and is thus more efficient.The MEMM train-ing converges more quickly,stabilizing after approximately 100iterations.For each model,the Viterbi algorithm is used to label a test set;the experimental results do not sig-nificantly change when using forward-backward decoding to minimize the per-symbol error rate.The results of several runs are presented in Figure3.Each plot compares two classes of models,with each point indi-cating the error rate for a single test set.As increases,the error rates generally increase,as thefirst-order models fail tofit the second-order data.Thefigure compares models parameterized as,,and;results for models parameterized as,,and are qualitatively the same.As shown in thefirst graph,the CRF generally out-performs the MEMM,often by a wide margin of10%–20% relative error.(The points for very small error rate,with ,where the MEMM does better than the CRF, are suspected to be the result of an insufficient number of training iterations for the CRF.)HMM 5.69%45.99%MEMM 6.37%54.61%CRF 5.55%48.05%MEMM 4.81%26.99%CRF 4.27%23.76%Using spelling featuresFigure4.Per-word error rates for POS tagging on the Penn tree-bank,usingfirst-order models trained on50%of the1.1million word corpus.The oov rate is5.45%.5.3POS tagging experimentsTo confirm our synthetic data results,we also compared HMMs,MEMMs and CRFs on Penn treebank POS tag-ging,where each word in a given input sentence must be labeled with one of45syntactic tags.We carried out two sets of experiments with this natural language data.First,we trainedfirst-order HMM,MEMM, and CRF models as in the synthetic data experiments,in-troducing parameters for each tag-word pair andfor each tag-tag pair in the training set.The results are con-sistent with what is observed on synthetic data:the HMM outperforms the MEMM,as a consequence of the label bias problem,while the CRF outperforms the HMM.The er-ror rates for training runs using a50%-50%train-test split are shown in Figure5.3;the results are qualitatively sim-ilar for other splits of the data.The error rates on out-of-vocabulary(oov)words,which are not observed in the training set,are reported separately.In the second set of experiments,we take advantage of the power of conditional models by adding a small set of or-thographic features:whether a spelling begins with a num-ber or upper case letter,whether it contains a hyphen,and whether it ends in one of the following suffixes:.Here wefind,as expected,that both the MEMM and the CRF benefit signif-icantly from the use of these features,with the overall error rate reduced by around25%,and the out-of-vocabulary er-ror rate reduced by around50%.One usually starts training from the all zero parameter vec-tor,corresponding to the uniform distribution.However, for these datasets,CRF training with that initialization is much slower than MEMM training.Fortunately,we can use the optimal MEMM parameter vector as a starting point for training the corresponding CRF.In Figure5.3, MEMM was trained to convergence in around100iter-ations.Its parameters were then used to initialize the train-ing of CRF,which converged in1,000iterations.In con-trast,training of the same CRF from the uniform distribu-tion had not converged even after2,000iterations.6.Further Aspects of CRFsMany further aspects of CRFs are attractive for applica-tions and deserve further study.In this section we briefly mention just two.Conditional randomfields can be trained using the expo-nential loss objective function used by the AdaBoost algo-rithm(Freund&Schapire,1997).Typically,boosting is applied to classification problems with a small,fixed num-ber of classes;applications of boosting to sequence labeling have treated each label as a separate classification problem (Abney et al.,1999).However,it is possible to apply the parallel update algorithm of Collins et al.(2000)to op-timize the per-sequence exponential loss.This requires a forward-backward algorithm to compute efficiently certain feature expectations,along the lines of Algorithm T,ex-cept that each feature requires a separate set of forward and backward accumulators.Another attractive aspect of CRFs is that one can imple-ment efficient feature selection and feature induction al-gorithms for them.That is,rather than specifying in ad-vance which features of to use,we could start from feature-generating rules and evaluate the benefit of gener-ated features automatically on data.In particular,the fea-ture induction algorithms presented in Della Pietra et al. (1997)can be adapted tofit the dynamic programming techniques of conditional randomfields.7.Related Work and ConclusionsAs far as we know,the present work is thefirst to combine the benefits of conditional models with the global normal-ization of randomfield models.Other applications of expo-nential models in sequence modeling have either attempted to build generative models(Rosenfeld,1997),which in-volve a hard normalization problem,or adopted local con-ditional models(Berger et al.,1996;Ratnaparkhi,1996; McCallum et al.,2000)that may suffer from label bias. Non-probabilistic local decision models have also been widely used in segmentation and tagging(Brill,1995; Roth,1998;Abney et al.,1999).Because of the computa-tional complexity of global training,these models are only trained to minimize the error of individual label decisions assuming that neighboring labels are correctly -bel bias would be expected to be a problem here too.An alternative approach to discriminative modeling of se-quence labeling is to use a permissive generative model, which can only model local dependencies,to produce a list of candidates,and then use a more global discrimina-tive model to rerank those candidates.This approach is standard in large-vocabulary speech recognition(Schwartz &Austin,1993),and has also been proposed for parsing (Collins,2000).However,these methods fail when the cor-rect output is pruned away in thefirst pass.。
公共政策终结理论研究综述摘要:政策终结是政策过程的一个环节,是政策更新、政策发展、政策进步的新起点。
政策终结是20世纪70年代末西方公共政策研究领域的热点问题。
公共政策终结是公共政策过程的一个重要阶段,对政策终结的研究不仅有利于促进政策资源的合理配置,更有利于提高政府的政策绩效。
本文简要回顾了公共政策终结研究的缘起、内涵、类型、方式、影响因素、促成策略以及发展方向等内容,希望能够对公共政策终结理论有一个比较全面深入的了解。
关键词:公共政策,政策终结,理论研究行政有着古老的历史,但是,在一个相当长的历史时期中,行政所赖以治理社会的工具主要是行政行为。
即使是公共行政出现之后,在一个较长的时期内也还主要是借助于行政行为去开展社会治理,公共行政与传统行政的区别在于,找到了行政行为一致性的制度模式,确立了行政行为的(官僚制)组织基础。
到了公共行政的成熟阶段,公共政策作为社会治理的一个重要途径引起了人们的重视。
与传统社会中主要通过行政行为进行社会治理相比,公共政策在解决社会问题、降低社会成本、调节社会运行等方面都显示出了巨大的优势。
但是,如果一项政策已经失去了存在的价值而又继续被保留下来了,就可能会发挥极其消极的作用。
因此,及时、有效地终结一项或一系列错误的或没有价值的公共政策,有利于促进公共政策的更新与发展、推进公共政策的周期性循环、缓解和解决公共政策的矛盾和冲突,从而实现优化和调整公共政策系统的目标。
这就引发了学界对政策终结理论的思考和探索。
自政策科学在美国诞生以来,公共政策过程理论都是学术界所关注的热点。
1956年,拉斯韦尔在《决策过程》一书中提出了决策过程的七个阶段,即情报、建议、规定、行使、运用、评价和终止。
此种观点奠定了政策过程阶段论在公共政策研究中的主导地位。
一时间,对于政策过程各个阶段的研究成为政策学界的主要课题。
然而,相对于其他几个阶段的研究来说,政策终结的研究一直显得非常滞后。
这种情况直到20世纪70年代末80年代初,才有了明显的改善。
六级阅读词汇替换总结use —— consumption原文比较级——higher better lowergenerate—— convertuse —— provideminds —— visionvigorous 、productive —— vitalityshow —— discoverenjoy —— overjoyeddebilitating (使虚弱) —— hindersafer —— much safe than beforeInternet and cable news —— media exposurepsychological and emotional makeup ,developmental issue —— personal qualitiesyet people are willing to eat up the intriguing predicaments (困境) of other people’s lives. —— remain facsinatedcater —— target suitfoucus on —— center onvary ----- differenttoo……to太。
而不能。
——否定改成肯定unlimited —— more than necessaryausterity (紧缩) —— shrinkcome up with —— developultimately the only ——bestincrease —— improvediverse —— differentAt times the unexpected demand for Reebok’s exceed ed supply,——its supply of products fell short of demand awake —— conscioussurface —— emerge fromlay their beliefs on the line ——they were unwilling to reveal their secrettake …..seriously —— sensepurpose —— planworth —— worthwhileinformation —— informedconcentration —— attentionlearn …..by heart —— memorizeeconomic and nationalistic ——commercial and state interestsgenerate ——originateenter the designed address —— inputting the exact addressidentical —— more or less the samecomplaints —— undesirable conditionsupply —— availableunfaire —— discrimiativeold way of life —— former wayover a time of period ——periodicalMajor impact —— largely effectconditioned by social conventions —— influenced by societyall —— variouspart of team —— deal with peoplefar beyond its actual importance and usefulness ——unrealisticat least as eager to make a political statement as to keep schools open. ——making a political issue of the closing of the schoolsbut denies the moves were politically motivated ——the political motives on the part of the educators Motivated in part by Christian compassion (怜悯) for the helpless as well as a practical political impulse to undercut the support of the socialist labor movement,——out of religious and political considerationsrash —— increased numberit’s not surprising that doctors and lawyers have helped themselves to a large slice of the growing pie. ——the workers are not the only ones to benefit from the compensation systemdefinitions —— conceptshuman terms —— moral valueTo show enthusiasm is to risk appearing unscientific, unobjective; it is to appeal to the students’ emotions rather than their intellect. ——it presents course content in a scientific and objective manneradvance —— raise.At night, the lenses have an even greater potential. ——will be sharper by a much greater degree at night than in the daytimeWhile US executives give both responsibility and authority to their employees, Japanese executives delegate only authority—the responsibility is still theirs. ——American executives consider authority and responsibility inseparable.rich —— expensivelow-density housing ——less crowded suburbanEnvironmental worries and diminishing oil reserves ——pollution and the diminishing oil resourceselicit ——getunderlying illness that may be responsible for the fatigue. ——illness causing fatigue should not be mistaken for overtraining syndromeless likely to develop heart disease ——can effectively reduce the recurrence of heart diseasepostpone ——remainThe realization that she can be a good provider may increase the chances that a working wife will choose divorce over an unsatisfactory marriage.a blank sheet of paper ——without a fixed natmobile ——remote-control3-D image ——different anglesaccurately——greater precisionfit —— catergifted student —— talented studentthey are far more likely to mention their families than their schools or teachersthey are far more likely to mention their families than their schools or teachers ——mainly to parental help and their education at home weaknesses ——low efficiencyout ——ward offpay more attention ——over-emphasizedkeep out —— keep awaytilted ——leaned30 days —— specific timediffer —— diversityI had an experience some years ago which taught me something about the ways in which people make a bad situation worse by blaming themselves.that our wishes cause things to happen ——at their commandtheir own hands —— themselvesregulate —— regulationcontrolling —— reprocessinghazardous substances ——harmful substanceslack —— loserecover —— regrowirresistible ——overwhelminghigh earners —— the wealthyconsider —— reviewapprove —— supportbeat down —— discouragedetail —— describehighly —— fullyrags-to-riches —— Start lifefrom very poordepend —— obtaincloud —— influencevalue on —— not overlookplaces the greatest value on information, services, support, and distribution. ——it should not overlook the importance of information, services, support, and distributionspecialized —— specific needsentertainment ——be entertainingassumption —— definitionone in four —— a quartercutting back supplies ——Reducing suppliesbusiness —— commerciala transfer of resources ——at the expense ofstill exist —— virtually untouchedused properly ——handlemake a plan ——prepareextreme worries ——over-cautiouspromote —— guaranteego mad —— be wildsatisfy ——gone far aheadprofession —— occupationdeserved —— naturaldisintegrating ——dividereciprocal action ——place the same ……unaffordable ——can’t affordmore expensive —— spend more moneya cheap place to vacation —— tourist destination。
中科院英语真题07.3有答案TIIE CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCIE}ICE5ENGLISH ENTRANCE EJCAMINATION FORDOCTORAL CANDIDATES14farch 2007PAPER ONEPAPER ONEPART 1 VUCABULARY (15 minutes, 10 points, 4.5 point each)1. Reductions in overseas government expenditure took place, but ______and more gradually than now seems desirable.A: reluctantly B: unwittingly C. impulsively D: anxiously2. In fear for their lives and in ______of their freedom, thousands of enslaved women and children fled to the Northern States on the eve of the American Civil War.A. WayB. viewC. visionD. pursuit3. If I could ensue a reasonably quick and comprehensive solution to the crisis in Iraq, t would not have entitled my speech “the______ problem.”A. Instant B: Inverse C. Insoluble D. Intact4. Some of the patients, especially the dying, wanted to ______ in the man and woman who had eased their suffering.A. confideB. ponderC. well D: reflect5. We all buy things on the ______ of the moment; this is what the retail trade calls an “impulse “buy. A: urge B. force C. spur D. rush.6. Nothing has ever equaled the ______ and speed with which the human species is altering the physical and chemical world.A. concernB. magnitudeC. volumeD. carelessness7. The second distinguishing characteristic of jazz is a rhythmic drive that was ______ called "hot" and later "swing."A. shortlyB. initiallyC. actuallyD. literally8. The depth of benefits of reading varies in ______ the depth of one's one?s experienceA. tempo withB. time withC. place ofD. proportion to9. Whatever the questions he really wanted to ask at the reprocessing plant, though, he would never allow his personal feelings to ______ with an assignment.A. interruptB. botherC. interfereD. intervene10. His ______ with computers began six months ago.A. imaginationB. invocationC. observationD. obsession11. I like cats but unfortunately I am ______ to them.A. vulnerableB. allergicC. inclinedD. hostile12. Some of the words employed by Shakespeare in his works have become______ and are no longer used in the present days.A. obsoleteB. obsceneC. obviousD. oblique13. One of the main ways to stay out of trouble with government agents is to keep a law______ away from those situations wherein you call attention to yourself.A. mannerB. positionC. profileD. station14. With 1 million copies sold out within just 2 weeks, that book is indeed a ______ success.A. provisionalB. sensationalC. sentimentalD. potential15. As the core of the management hoard, he can always come up with ______ ideas to promote the corporation's marketing strategies.A. integralB. instinctiveC. intangibleD. ingeniousl6. They speak of election campaign polls as a musician might of an orchestra ______, or a painter ofdefective paint.A. in paceB. out of focusC. in stepD. out of tune17. Surely it doesn't matter where charities get their money from: what ______much is what they do with it.A. taunts forB. asks forC. consists ofD. approves ofl8. Any business needs ordinary insurance______ risks such as fire, flood and breakage.A. inB. againstC. raftD. of19. As he was a thoroughly professional journalist, he already knew the media______.A. to and froB. upside and downC. inside and outD. now and then20. There was little, if any, evidence to substantiate the gossip and, ______, there was little to disprove it. PART II CLOZE TEST (15 minutes, 15 points)There is a closer relationship between morals andarchitecture and interior decoration______21, we suspect. Huxley has pointed out that Western ladies did not take frequent baths ______22 they were afraid to see their own naked bodies, and this moral concept delayed the______23 of the modern white-enameled bathtub for centuries. One can understand, ______24 in the design of old Chinese furniture there was so little consideration for human______ 25 only when we realize the Confucian atmosphere in which people moved about. Chinese redwood Furniture was designed for people to sit______26 in, because that was the only posture approved by society.Even Chinese emperors had to sit on a (n) ______27 on which I would not think of______28 for more than five minutes, and for that matter the English kings were just as badly off. Cleopatra went about______29 on a couch carried by servants, because______30 she had never heard of Confucius. If Confucius should have seen her doing that, he would certainly have struck her shins with a stick, as he did______31 one of his old disciples, Yuan Jiang, when the latter was found sitting in an______32 posture. In the Confucian society in which we lived, gentlemen and ladies had to______33 themselves perfectly erect, at least on formal______34 , and any sign of putting one's leg up would be at once considered a sign of vulgarity and lack of______35.21. A. for B. than C. as D. that22. A. if B. when C. because D. though23. A. rise B. existence C. occurrence D. increase24. A. what B. where C. how D. why25. A. care B. choice C. concern D. comfort26. A. upright B. tight C. fast D. stiff27. A. armchair B. throne C. altar D. couch28. A. moving B. keeping C. remaining D. lasting29. A. traveling B. staying C. wandering D. reclining30. A. fortunately B. frankly C. accordingly D. apparently31. A. in B. on C. to D. at32. A. responsible B. incorrect C. immoral D. imperfect33. A. hold B. sit C. behave D. conduct34. A. conditions B. situations C. occasions D. instances35. A. culture B. confidence C. morality D. modestyPART III READING COMPREHENSIONSection A (60 minutes, 30 points)Passage OneMost people would be impressed by the high quality of medicine available to most Americans. There is a lot of specialization, a great deal of attention to the individual, a vast amount of advanced technical equipment, and intense effort not to make mistakes because of the financial risk which doctors and hospitals must face the courts if they handle things badly.But the Americans are in a mess. The problem is the way in which health care is organized and financed. Contrary to public belief, it is not just a free competition system. To the private system has been joined a large public system, because private care was simply not looking after the less fortunate and the elderly.But even with this huge public part of the system, which this year will eat up 84.5 billion dollars-more than 10 percent of the U.S. budget-large numbers of Americans are left out. These include about half the I1 million unemployed and those who fail to meet the strict limits on income fixed by a government trying to make savings where it can.The basic problem, however, is that there is no central control over the health system. There is no limit to what doctors andhospitals charge for their services. Over than what the public is able to pay. The number of doctors has shot up and prices have climbed. When faced with toothache, a sick child, or a heart attack, all the unfortunate person concerned can do is pay up.Two-thirds of the populations are covered by medical insurance. Doctors charge as much as they want knowing that the insurance company will pay the bill.The medical profession has as a result become America's new big businessmen. The average income of doctors has now reached $100,000 a year. With such vast incomes the talk in the doctor's surgery is as likely to be about the doctor's latest financial deal, as about whether the minor operation he is recommending at several thousand dollars is entirely necessary.The rising cost of medicine in the U.S.A. is among the most worrying problem facing the country. In 1981 the country's health cost climbed 15.9 percent-about twice as fast as prices in general.36. In the U.S. patients can effect, in medical ______.A. occasional mistakes by careless doctorsB. a great deal of personal attentionC. low charge by doctors and hospitalsD. stacking nurses and bad services37. Doctors and hospitals try hard to avoid making mistakes because ______.A. they fear to be sued by the patientsB. they care much about Their reputationC. they compete for getting more patentsD. they wish to join the private medical system38. What do most Americans think about health in the U.S.?A. It must be in total chaosB. It must be a free competition systemC. It should cover the unemployedD. It should involve private care.39. From Paragraph 3 we know that ______from the public health system.A. millions of jobless people get support.B. those with steady income do not seek help.C. some people are made ineligible to benefit.D. those with private health care are excluded.40. According to the author, what is the key factor in the rise of health cost in the US?A. The refusal of insurance companies to pay the billsB. The increase of the number of doctors and hospitalsC. the lack of government control over the medical pricesD. The merger of private health care with the public system.41. It is implied that American doctors often______.A. trade their professionalism for financial benefitsB. fails to recognize the paying power of the patientsC. discuss about how to make money during the surgeryD. gives the patients expensive but needless treatments.Passage twoAlmost every day the media discovers an African community fighting some form of environmental threat from land fills. Garbage dumps, petrochemical plants, refineries, bus depots, and the list go on. For years, residents watched helplessly as their communities became dumping grounds.But citizens didn't remain silent for long. Local activists have been organizing under the mantle of environmental justice since as far back as 1968. More than three decades ago, the concept of environmental justice had not registered on the radar screensof many environmental or civil rights groups. But environmental justice fits squarely under the civil rights umbrella. It should not be forgotten that Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. went to Memphis on an environmental and economic justice mission in 1968, seeking support for striking garbage workers who were underpaid and whose basic duties exposed them to environmentally hazardous conditions.In 1979 landmark environmental discrimination lawsuit filed in Houston. Followed by similar litigation efforts in the 1980s, rallied activists to stand up to corporations and demand government intervention.In 1991, a new breed of environmental activists gathered in Washington, D.C., to bring national attention to pollution problems threatening low-income and minority communities Leaders introduced the concept of environmental justice, protesting that Black, poor and working-class communities often received less environmental protection than White or more affluent communities. The first National People of Color Environmental Leadership Summit effectively broadened what "the environment" was understood to mean. It expanded the definition to include where we live, work, play, worship and go to school, as well as the physical and natural world. In the process, the environmental justice movement changed the way environmentalism is practiced in the United States and, ultimately, worldwide.Because many issues identified at the inaugural summit remain unaddressed, the second National People of Color Environmental Leadership Summit was convened in Washington, D.C., this past October. The second summit was planned for 500 delegates; but more than 1,400 people attended the four-daygathering."We are pleased that the Summit II was able to attract a record number of grassroots activists, academicians, students, researchers, government officials We proved to the world that our planners, policy analysts and movement is alive and well, and growing," says Beverly Wright, chair of the summit. The meeting produced two dozen policy papers that show environmental and health disparities between people of color and Whites.42. In Paragraph 1, the word “residents?? refers to ______in particularA. ethnic groups in the U.SB. the American general publicC. a Africa AmericanD. the U.S. working-class43. More than three decades ago, environments justice was ______.A. controversial,among local activitiesB. First proposed by Martin Luther King Jr.C. fascinating to the civil rights groupsD. barely realized by many environmentalists44. In 1968, Martin Luther King Jr. went to Memphis to help the garbage workers ______.A. get relieved of some of their basic dutiesB. know what environmental justice wasC. fight for better working conditionsD. recognize their dangerous surroundings45.. Paragraph 3 implies that, in 1979 ______.A. the environmental justice issues were first brought to court in HoustonB. environmental activists cooperated in defying the USgovernmentC. the government intervention helped promote environmental justiceD. environmental problems attracted the attention of the government46. the new breed of environmental activists differed from the previous activists in that______.A. they noticed environmental disparities between the rich and the poorB. they cried for government intervention in saving the environmentC. they knew what …the environment really meant to the White peopleD. they practiced environmentalism outside as well as within the US47. With respect to getting environmental justice, Summit II aimed for ______.A. showing the achieved successB. attracting national attentionC. identifying relevant issuesD. finding solutions to the problemsPassage ThreeAnyone who doubts that children are born with a healthy amount of ambition need spent only“tow minutes with“baby eagerly learning to walk or a headstrong toddler stating to walk. No matter how many times the little ones stumble in their initial efforts, most keep on trying, determined to master their amazing new skill. It is only several years later, around the start of middle or junior high school, many psychologists and teachers agree, that a good number of kids seem to lose their natural drive tosucceed and end up joining the ranks of underachievers. For the parents of such kids, whose own ambition is often in separately tied to their children's success, it can be a bewildering, painful experience. So it is no wonder some parents find themselves hoping that ambition can be taught like any other subject at school.It's not quite that simple. "Kids can be given the opportunities, but they can't before,”says Jacquelyn Eccles, a psychology professor at the University of Michigan who tried a study examining what motivated first-and seventh-graders in three school districts. Even so growing number of educators and psychosis?s do believe it is possible to unearth ambition in students who don't seem to have much. They say that by instilling confidence, encouraging some risk taking, being accepting of failure and expanding the areas in which children may be successful, both parents and teachers can reignite that innate desire to achieve.Dubbed Brainology, the unorthodox approach uses basic neuroscience to teach kids how the brain works and how it can continue to develop throughout life. The message is that everything is within the kids' control, that their intelligence is malleableSome experts say our education system, with its strong emphasis on testing and rigid separation of students into disappearance of drive in some kids. Educators say it's important to expose kids to a world beyond homework and tests, through volunteer work, sports, hobbies and other extracurricular activities. “The crux of the issue is th at many students that many students experience education as irrelevant to their life goals and ambitions …says Michael Nakkula, a Harvard education professorwho runs a Boston-area mentoring program called Project IF (Inventing the Future), which works to get low-income underachievers in touch with their aspirations. The key to getting kids to aim higher at school is to tell them the notion that Glasswork is irrelevant is not true, to show them how doing well at school can actually help them fulfill their dreams beyond it. Like any ambitious toddler, they need to understand that they have to learn to walk before they can run.48. The passage is mainly about ______.A. when in one's life ambition is most neededB. what to do to reform the education systemC. why parents of underachievers are ambitiousD. how to help school children develop their ambition49. According to the passage, most educators believe that many kids ______.A. show a lack of academic ambition at birthB. amaze their parents by acting like adultsC. become less ambitious as they grow upD. get increasingly afraid of failing in school50. Paragraph 1 mentions some parents who would see their kids' failure as______.A. naturalB. trivialC. intolerableD. understandable51. The word "malleable" in Paragraph 3 most probably means ______.A. justifiableB. flexibleC. uncountableD. desirable52. Some experts suggest that many kids lose ambition in school because they are______.A. cut off from the outside worldB. exposed to school work onlyC. kept away from class competitionD. labeled as inferior to others53. The last paragraph implies______.A. the effectiveness of Project IFB. the significance of class workC. the importance of walking to runningD. the attainment of different life goalsPassage FourJan Hendrik Schon's success seemed too good to be true, and it was. In only four years as a physicist at Bell Laborites, Schon, 32, had co-authored 90 scientific papers--one every 16 days--dealing new discoveries in superconductivity, lasers, nanotechnology and quantum physics. This output astonished his colleagues, and made them suspicious. When one co-worker noticed that the same table of data appeared in two separate papers--which also happened to appear in the two most prestigious scientific journals in the world, Science and Nature-the jig was up. In October 2002 a Bell Labs investigation found that: Schon had falsified and fabricated data. His career as a scientist was finished .Scientific scandals, witch are as old as science itself, tend to follow similar patterns of presumption and due reward.In recent years, of course, the pressure on scientists to publish in the top journals has increased, making the journals much more crucial to career success. The questions are whetherNature and Science have become to too powerful as arbiters of what science reach to the public, and whether the journals are up to their task as gatekeepers.Each scientific specialty has its own set of journals. Physicists have Physical Review Letters; neuroscientists have Neuron, and so forth. Science and Nature, though, are the only two major journals that cover the gamut of scientific disciplines, from meteorology and zoology to quantum physics and chemistry. As a result, journalists look to them each week for the cream of the crop of new science papers. And scientists look to the journals in part to reach journalists. Why do they care? Competition for grants has gotten so fierce that scientists have sought popular renown to gain an edge over their rivals. Publication in specialized journals will win the acclaims from academics and satisfy the publish-or-perish imperative, but Science and Nature come with the added bonus of potentially getting your paper writtenup in The New York Times and other publications.Scientists tend to pay more attention to the big two than to other journals. When more scientists know about a particular paper, they're more apt to cite it in their own papers. Being oft-cited will increase a scientist's "Impact Factor," a measure of how often papers are cited by peers. Funding agencies use the "Impact Factor" as a rough measure of the influence of scientists they're considering supporting.54. The achievements of Jan Hendrik Schon turned out to be______.A. surprisingB. inconceivableC. praiseworthyD. fraudulent55. To find why scientific scandals like Schon's occur, people have begun to raise doubt about the two top journals for_____.A. their academic prestigeB. their importance to career successC. their popularity with scientific circlesD. their reviewing system.56. They according to the passage, what makes Science and Nature powerful?A. They cover the best researches on a variety of subjectsB. They publish controversial papers that others won't.C. They prefer papers on highly specialized research.D. They have a special system of peer-review.57. The expression "the cream of the crop" in Paragraph 3 likely means _____.A. the most of allB. best of allC. the recently releasedD. the widely spread58. Scientists know that by reaching the journalists for Science and Nature they would get a better chance to _____.A. have more of their papers published in the journals in the futureB. have their names appear in many other renown publicationsC. have their research results understood by the general publicD. have their superiors give them monetary award for the publication59. Compared with other journals, Nature and Science wouldgive the authors an extra benefit that their papers _____.A. will be more likely to become influential and be citedB. will be more likely to be free from challenge by peers.C. will be reviewed with greaser care to ensure me authorityD. will reappear in their original in papers like New York Times.Passage FiveThis leaves us with the challenge of finding some politically practicable way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. But it is an awkward truth that when most U.S senators were asked informally in 2000 if they would support the Kyoto Protocol should President George W. Bush send it to the Scant for ratification, the overwhelming majority, Democrats as well as Republicans, said they could not. The reason for the liberals' surprising reply is clear. Many studies, not all by conservatives, suggest that full compliance with the terms of the Kyoto Protocol would likely lead to a deep American recession. For those willing to run this risk, sober reflection on the consequences of the economic collapse of 1929 and the subsequent worldwide depression with all its political and ultimately military consequences is certainly in order.That said, what can be done, in particular by our own country Independent of the issues raised by the Kyoto Protocol, and given the weight of evidence that the problem of global warming is serious fraught with dire consequences, failure to do anything at all and instead to promote "business as usual" downright criminal.Yet the Bush administration has given no more than lip service to the problem, though that could he changing. It is one thing weigh alternatives and implements compromises that reflect the complexity of the problem; it is quite another thing to do nothing, especially if doing nothing is just a way of securingsupport from certain industries that worsen the problem.There are, after all, things that can he done. Reopening a serious international dialogue, and not just saying a few good words, would be a useful if inadequate start. Not every problem must be solving before -the weight of evidence becomes so compelling that certain initial steps become almost mandatory. We already know how to make more fuel-efficient yet no national policy has surfaced to accomplish this. The scientific and engineering communities are the ones best suited to identify the scientific research that is still needed and the technical projects that show the greatest promise. These issues should be decided by them and not the politicians. Once solutions look promising, as a few already do, industry will be all too ready to romp in, for at that stage there is money to be made. And only a fool would underestimate human ingenuity when given a proper incentive, or the strength of American industry once the boiler is lit under it.60. What can be inferred about the Kyoto Protocol from Paragraph 1?A. It was about environment protection.B. It was supported by most Democrats.C. It was considered awkward by conservationsD. It was officially rejected by most US senators.61. Many studies suggest that full agreement with the Kyoto Protocol would run the risk of _____.A. falling victim to military warfareB. offending other countriesC. re-experiencing the past miseriesD. provoking nationwide anger62. We can learn from Paragraph 2 that _____.A. measures should be taken to deal with global warming.B. the best way to deal with global warming is `let it be'.C. seriousness of global warming has been exaggerated.D. promoting "business as usual" must be further stressed.63. The Bush administration _____.A. has assisted in aggravating global warmingB. has taken no measures against global warmingC. has executed compromises about global warmingD. has got big industries' support to stop global warming64. The author suggests all of the following measures EXCEPT_____.A. reopening a serious international dialogueB. overcoming all difficulties before startingC. conducting scientific researches concernedD. doing the most promising technical projects65. In the last paragraph, the expression "once the boiler is lit under it" most probably means "when American industry is_____.A. underminedB. upgradedC. incensedD. stimulated.Section B(20 minutes, 10 points)The Bush crowd bristles at the use of the "Q-word"--quagmire(沼泽)---to describe American involvement in Iraq. But with our soldiers fighting and dying with no end in sight, who can deny that Mr. Bush has gotten us into "a situation from which extrication is very difficult," which is a standard definition of quagmire?More than 1,730 American troops have already died in Iraq._____66 one of six service members, including four women, who were killed .She was a suicide bomber struck their convoy in Falluja last week.With evidence mounting that U.S. troop strength in Iraq was inadequate, Mr. Bush told reporters at the White House, "There are some who feel that the conditions are such that they can attack us there. My answer is, Bring'em on."_____67 A New Jersey Democrat said: "I am shaking my head in disbelief. When I served in the Army in Europe during World War II, I never heard any military commander-let alone the commander in chief-invite enemies to attack U.S. troops."_____68"We've learned that Iraqis are courageous and that they need additional skills," said Mr. Bush in his television address. "And that is why a major part of our mission is to train them so they can do the fighting, and then our troops can come home."Don't hold your breath. _____69Whether one agreed with the launch of this war or not, the troops doing the fighting deserve to be guided by leaders in Washington who are at least minimally competent at waging war. _____70A. It was an immature display of street-corner machismo(男子气概)that appalled people familiar with the agonizing ordeals of combat.B. The American death toll in Iraq at that point was about 200, but it was clear that a vicious opposition was developing.C. This is another example of the administration's inability to distinguish between a strategy and a wish.D. Some were little more than children when they signed up for the armed forces, like Ramona Valdez, who grew up in the Bronx and was just 17 when she pined the Marines.E. The latest fantasy out of Washington is that American-。
考研英语一试题及答案(2)Text 3Up until a few decades ago, our visions of the future were largely - though by no means uniformly - glowingly positive. Science and technology would cure all the ills of humanity, leading to lives of fulfillment and opportunity for all.Now utopia has grown unfashionable, as we have gained a deeper appreciation of the range of threats facing us, from asteroid strike to epidemic flu and to climate change. You might even be tempted to assume that humanity has little future to look forward to.But such gloominess is misplaced. The fossil record shows that many species have endured for millions of years - so why shouldn't we? Take a broader look at our species' place in the universe, and it becomes clear that we have an excellent chance of surviving for tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of years. Look up Homo sapiens in the "Red List" of threatened species of the International Union for the Conversation of Nature (IUCN) ,and you will read: "Listed as Least Concern as the species is very widely distributed, adaptable, currently increasing, and there are no major threats resulting in an overall population decline."So what does our deep future hold? A growing number of researchers and organizations are now thinking seriously about that question. For example, the Long Now Foundation has its flagship project a medical clock that is designed to still be marking time thousands of years hence.Perhaps willfully, it may be easier to think about such lengthy timescales than about the more immediate future. The potential evolution of today's technology, and its social consequences, isdazzlingly complicated, and it's perhaps best left to science fiction writers and futurologists to explore the many possibilities we can envisage. That's one reason why we have launched Arc, a new publication dedicated to the near future.But take a longer view and there is a surprising amount that we can say with considerable assurance. As so often, the past holds the key to the future: we have now identified enough of the long-term patterns shaping the history of the planet, and our species, to make evidence-based forecasts about the situations in which our descendants will find themselves.This long perspective makes the pessimistic view of our prospects seem more likely to be a passing fad. To be sure, the future is not all rosy. But we are now knowledgeable enough to reduce many of the risks that threatened the existence of earlier humans, and to improve the lot of those to come.31. Our vision of the future used to be inspired by[A] our desire for lives of fulfillment[B] our faith in science and technology[C] our awareness of potential risks[D] our belief in equal opportunity32. The IUCN’s “Red List” suggest that human being are[A] a sustained species[B] a threaten to the environment[C] the world’s dominant power[D] a misplaced race33. Which of the following is true according to Paragraph 5?[A] Arc helps limit the scope of futurological studies.[B] Technology offers solutions to social problem.[C] The interest in science fiction is on the rise.[D] Our Immediate future is hard to conceive.34. To ensure the future of mankind, it is crucial to[A] explore our planet’s abundant resources[B] adopt an optimistic view of the world[C] draw on our experience from the past[D] curb our ambition to reshape history35. Which of the following would be the best title for the text?[A] Uncertainty about Our Future[B] Evolution of the Human Species[C] The Ever-bright Prospects of Mankind[D] Science, Technology and HumanityText 4On a five to three vote, the Supreme Court knocked out much of Arizona’s immigration law Monday-a modest policy victory for the Obama Administration. But on the more important matter of the Constitution, the decision was an 8-0 defeat for the Administration’s effort to upset the balance of power between the federal government and the states.In Arizona v. United States, the majority overturned three of the four contested p rovisions of Arizona’s controversial plan to have state and local police enforce federal immigration law. The Constitutional principles that Washington alone has the power to “establish a uniform Rule of Naturalization ”and that federal laws precede state laws are noncontroversial . Arizona had attempted to fashion state policies that ran parallel to the existing federal ones.Justice Anthony Kennedy, joined by Chief Justice John Roberts and the Court’s liberals, ruled that the state flew too close to the federal sun. On the overturned provisions the majority held the congress had deliberately “occupied the field” and Arizona had thus intruded on the federal’s privilegedpowers.However, the Justices said that Arizona police would be allowed to verify the legal status of people who come in contact with law enforcement. That’s because Congress has always envisioned joint federal-state immigration enforcement and explicitly encourages state officers to share information and cooperate with federal colleagues.Two of the three objecting Justice-Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas-agreed with this Constitutional logic but disagreed about which Arizona rules conflicted with the federal statute. The only major objection came from Justice Antonin Scalia, who offered an even more robust defense of state privileges going back to the Alien and Sedition Acts.The 8-0 objection to President Obama turns on what Justice Samuel Alito describes in his objection as “a shocking assertion of federal executive power”. The White House argued that Arizona’s laws conflicted with its enforcement priorities, even if state laws complied with federal statutes to the letter. In effect, the White House claimed that it could invalidate any otherwise legitimate state law that it disagrees with.Some powers do belong exclusively to the federal government, and control of citizenship and the borders is among them. But if Congress wanted to prevent states from using their own resources to check immigration status, it could. It never did so. The administration was in essence asserting that because it didn’t want to carry out Congress’s immigration wishes, no state should be allowed to do so either. Every Justice rightly rejected this remarkable claim.36. Three provisions of Arizona’s plan were overturn ed because they[A] deprived the federal police of Constitutional powers.[B] disturbed the power balance between different states.[C] overstepped the authority of federal immigration law.[D] contradicted both the federal and state policies.37. On which of the following did the Justices agree, according to Paragraph4?[A] Federal officers’ duty to withhold immigrants ‘information.[B] States’ independence from federal immigration law.[C] States’ legitimate role in immigration enforcement.[D] Congress’s intervention in immigration enforcement.38. It can be inferred from Paragraph 5 that the Alien and Sedition Acts[A] violated the Constitution.[B] undermined the states’ interests.[C] supported the federal statute.[D] stood in favor of the states.39. The White House claims that its power of enforcement[A] outweighs that held by the states.[B] is dependent on the states’ support.[C] is established by federal statutes.[D] rarely goes against state laws.40. What can be learned from the last paragraph?[A] Immigration issues are usually decided by Congress.[B] Justices intended to check the power of the Administration.[C] Justices wanted to strengthen its coordination with Congress.[D] The Administration is dominant over immigration issues.Part BDirections:In the following article, some sentences have been removed. For Questions 41-45, choose the most suitable one from the list A-G to fit into each of the numbered blank. There are two extra choices, which do not fit in any of the gaps. Mark your answers on ANSWER SHEET 1. (10 points)The social sciences are flourishing. As of 2005, there were almost half a million professional social scientists from all fields in the world, working both inside and outside academia. According to the World Social Science Report 2010, the number of social-science students worldwide has swollen by about 11% every year since 2000.Yet this enormous resource in not contributing enough to today’s global challenges including climate change, security, sustainable development and health.(41)______Humanity has the necessary agro-technological tools to eradicate hunger, from genetically engineered crops to artificial fertilizers . Here, too, the problems are social: the organization and distribution of food, wealth and prosperity.(42)____This is a shame—the community should be grasping the opportunity to raise its influence in the real world. To paraphrase the great social scientist Joseph Schumpeter: there is no radical innovation without creative destruction.Today, the social sciences are largely focused on disciplinary problems and internal scholarly debates, rather than on topics with external impact.Analyses reveal that the number of papers including the keywords “environmental changed” or “climate change” have increased rapidly since 2004,(43)____When social scientists do tackle practical issues ,their scopeis often local: Belgium is interested mainly in the effects of poverty on Belgium for example .And whether the community’s work contributes much to an overall accumulation of knowledge is doubtful.The problem is not necessarily the amount of available funding (44)____this is an adequate amount so long as it is aimed in the right direction. Social scientists who complain about a lack of funding should not expect more in today’s economic climate.The trick is to direct these funds better. The European Union Framework funding programs have long had a category specifically targeted at social scientists. This year, it was proposed that system be changed: Horizon 2020,a new program to be enacted in 2014,would not have such a category ,This has resulted in protests from social scientists. But the intention is not to neglect social science; rather, the complete opposite.(45)____That should create more collaborative endeavors and help to develop projects aimed directly at solving global problems.[A] It could be that we are evolving two communities of social scientists: one that is discipline-oriented and publishing in highly specialized journals, and one that is problem-oriented and publishing elsewhere, such as policy briefs.[B] However, the numbers are still small: in 2010, about 1,600 of the 100,000 social-sciences papers published globally included one of these Keywords.[C] the idea is to force social to integrate their work with other categories, including health and demographic change food security, marine research and the bio-economy, clear, efficient energy; and inclusive, innovative and secure societies.[D] the solution is to change the mindset of the academiccommunity, and what it considers to be its main goal. Global challenges and social innovation ought to receive much more attention from scientists, especially the young ones.[E] These issues all have root causes in human behavior. All require behavioral change and social innovations, as well as technological development. Stemming climate change, for example, is as much about changing consumption patterns and promoting tax acceptance as it is about developing clean energy.[F] Despite these factors, many social scientists seem reluctant to tackle such problems. And in Europe, some are up in arms over a proposal to drop a specific funding category for social-science research and to integrate it within cross-cutting topics of sustainable development.[G]During the late 1990s , national spending on social sciences and the humanities as a percentage of all research and development funds-including government, higher education, non-profit and corporate -varied from around 4% to 25%; in most European nations , it is about 15%.。
2022年考研考博-考博英语-四川大学考试全真模拟易错、难点剖析AB卷(带答案)一.综合题(共15题)1.单选题Planning our vocation we must take the frequent () of the weather into consideration.问题1选项A.transformationB.transmissionC.transactionD.transition【答案】A【解析】transformation转化, 转换;transmission传递。
传播;transaction交易;transition过渡。
句意:计划假期的时候, 我们必须把变化莫测的天气考虑进去。
2.翻译题In Germany, in contrast with France, friendship is much more clearly a matter of feeling, Adolescents, boys and girls, from deeply sentimental attachments, walk and talk together-not so much to polish their wits as to share their hopes and fears and dreams to form a common front against the world of school and family and to join in a kind of mutual discovery of each other's and their own inner life. Within the family, the closest relationship over a lifetime is between brothers and sisters. Outside the family, men and women find in their closest friends of the same sex the devotion of a sister, the loyalty of a brother. Appropriately, in Germany friends usually are brought into the family. Children call their father's and their mother's friends “uncle” and “aunt”. Between French friends, who have chosen each other for the similarity of their point of view, lively disagreement and sharpness of argument are the breath of life. But for Germans, whose friendships are based on common feelings, deep disagreement on any subject that matters to both is regarded as a tragedy. Like ties of kinship, ties of friendship are meant to be absolutely binding. Young Germans who come to the United States have great difficulty in establishing such friendship with Americans. We view friendship more tentatively, subject to changes in intensity as people move, change their jobs, marry, or discover new interests.【答案】与法国不同, 在德国, 友谊更注重感觉。
2022年考研考博-考博英语-厦门大学考试全真模拟易错、难点剖析AB卷(带答案)一.综合题(共15题)1.单选题Changing from solid to liquid, water takes in heat from all substances near it and this_______produces artificial cold surrounding it.问题1选项A.absorptionB.transitionC.consumptionD.interaction【答案】A【解析】absorption吸收; transition过渡, 转变; consumption消费, 消耗; interaction相互作用。
句意:水从固体变成液体, 会吸收附近所有物质的热量, 这种吸收会在周围产生人工寒潮。
选项A符合句意。
2.单选题The British historian Niall Ferguson speculated that the end of American_______might not fuel an orderly shift to a multipolar system.问题1选项A.domainB.hegemonyC.sovereigntyD.preference【答案】B【解析】domain领地,领域; hegemony霸权; sovereignty主权,君主; preference偏爱, 优先权。
句意:英国历史学家Niall Ferguson推测, 美国霸权主义的终结可能不会推动美国向多极体系的有序转变。
选项B符合句意。
3.翻译题(1). When we talk about the danger of romantic love, we don't mean danger in the obvious heartbreak way—the cheap betrayals, the broken promises—we mean the dark danger that lurks when sensible, educated women fall for the dogmatic idea that romantic love is the ultimate goal for the modern female. Every day, thousands of films, books, articles and TV programs hammer home this message—that without romance, life is somehow barren.However, there are women who entertain the subversive notion, like an intellectual mouse scratching behind the skirting board, that perhaps this higher love is not necessarily the celestial highway to absolute happiness. (2). Their empirical side kicks in. and they observe that couples who marry in a haze of adoration and sex are, ten years later, throwing china and fight bitterly over who gets the dog.(3). But the women who notice these contradictions are often afraid to speak them in case they should be labeled cynics. Surely only the most jaded and damaged would challenge the orthodoxy of romantic love. The received wisdom that there is not something wrong with the modern idea of sexual love as ultimate panacea, but (hat if you don't get it, there is something wrong with you. You freak, go back and read the label. (4).We say the privileging of romantic love over all others, the insistence that it is the one essential, incontrovertible element of human happiness, traced all the way back to the caves, is a trap and a snare. The idea that every human heart, since the invention of the wheel, was yearning for its other half is a myth.(5). Love is a human constant: it is the interpretation of it that changes. The way that love has been expressed, its significance in daily life, have never been immutable or constant. The different kinds of love and what they signify are not fixed, whatever the traditionalists may like to tell you.So the modern idea that romantic love is a woman's highest calling, that she is somehow only half a person without it, that if she questions it she is going against all human history, does not stand up to scrutiny. It is not an imperative carved in stone; it is a human idea, and human beings are frail and suggestible, and sometimes get the wrong end of the stick.Read the passage carefully and translate the underlined sentences into Chinese.【答案】1.当说到浪漫爱情的危险时, 我们并不是指显而易见令人心碎的危险一可耻的背叛、破碎的誓言——而是指当明智的知识女性对教条主义思想信以为真, 即浪漫的爱情是现代女性的终极目标时, 潜伏着的隐秘危险。
经济学人精读第30篇专利亟待改革但这不表示支持偷窃2015年10月6日09:23 阅读1373InnovationTime to fix patentsIdeas fuel the economy. Today’s patent systems are a rotten way of rewarding them创新解决专利问题迫在眉睫创意推动经济。
今天的专利体系是一种陈腐的奖励方式IN 1970 the United States recognised the potential of crop science by broadening the sco pe of patents in agriculture. Patents are supposed to reward inventiveness, so that shoul d have galvanised progress. Yet, despite providing extra protection, that change and a fu rther broadening of the regime in the 1980s led neither to more private research into whe at nor to an increase in yields. Overall, the productivity of American agriculture continued its gentle upward climb, much as it had before.1970年美国通过扩大农业方面的专利范围,认可了作物学的潜力。
专利意在奖励发明创造,所以本应激励进步。
但是,尽管提供了额外保护,这一变化以及 20 世纪 80 年代专利范围的进一步扩大既没有在小麦领域引入更多私人研究,也没有带来产量增长。
Reprinted from Journal of Applied Corporate FinanceVolume 10 Number 1 • Spring 1997Copyright © 1997 Stern Stewart Management Services, Inc.PERCS, DECS, AND OTHER MANDATORY CONVERTIBLES•M andatory convertibles such as PERCS andDECS are equity-linked securities that pay a higher dividend than the common stock for a number of years and then convert into common stock at a pre-specified date and have limited appreciation potential. From their modest beginnings in 1988 such mandatory convertibles have become sufficiently popular with issuers and investors to have accounted for a quarter of the 520 billion convertible market in 1996. And the variety of mandatory convertibles seems to increase every year with each new variation designed to satisfy a special demand in the marketplace or to accommodate the special circumstances of different issuers.1 Carrying names like Morgan Stanley’s PERCS and PEPS, Merrill Lynch’s PRIDES. Salomon Brothers DECS, and Goldman Sachs ACES, mandatory convertibles have been issued by companies such as Texas Instruments, General Motors, Citicorp, Sears, Kaiser Aluminum, Reynolds Metals, American Express, First Chicago, Bowater, Boise Cascade, K-Mart, James River, and Allstate. Moreover, mandatory convertibles are not limited to those issued by companies. They have been created byby Enrique R. Arzac, Columbia University *investment bankers in response to investor demandwithout the company’s involvement. ‘Synthetic” mandatory convertibles based upon the stock of firms like Merck, Microsoft, Hewlett Packard, and Amgen have beenissued under names like ELKS (by Salomon Brothers), YEELDS (by Lehman Brothers), and CHIPS (by Bear Steams).2 At the same time, some interesting variations on conventional convertibles and bond-plus-warrants units have also recently become popular in the Euromarket. Among prominent Euro issuers are Roche Holding, Sapporo Brewery, Kobe Electric, Nafinsa, Michelin, Empresas ICA, and Tsurumi Manufacturing. And, as in the U.S., a number of “designer" equity-linked securities have been introduced in the Euromarket. For example, Swiss Bank Corporation has issued bonds plus "knock-out” warrants for Roche Holding and Benetton—packages of securities that share some of the features of the recent American mandatory convertibles.3 Morgan Stanley has issued synthetic PERCS linked to the performance of SmithKline Beecham, Nafinsa has issued DECS that willbe exchanged for the shares of Teléfonos de Mexico it already owns, and Lukoil has issued DECS-typemandatory convertibles._________________________________________________________________________________________________*The author is grateful to Brooks Harris arid James Ryan for their insights into the practical aspects of mandatory convertibles, and Don Chew for his thoughtful comments arid editorial assistance.1. A convertible is a bond or preferred equity security which can be converted into common stock at the option of the holder.2. The acronyms stand for the various ways of describing these securities. For example, PERCS is short for Preferred Equity-Redemption Cumulative Stock; PEPS for Preferred Equity-Participation Securities, DECS for Debt Exchangeable for Common Stock or Dividend Enhanced Convertible Securities; PRIDES:Preferred Redeemable Increased Dividend Securities; ACES : Automatically Convertible Enhanced Securities; ELKS: Equity-Linked Securities; YEELDS: Yield Enhanced Equity Linked Securities; and CHIPS: Common Higher Income Participation Securities. The acronyms and complete names are trademarks of their designers. PERCS TM is a trademark of Morgan Stanley and Co. DECS SM is a service mark of Salomon brothers Inc.3. A knock-out option is an instrument that loses some option feature upon the price of the underlying security reaching a certain level.In this article I begin by discussing the rationale for mandatory convertibles from the point of view of issuers as well as investors. In general, convertibles securities reduce the costs of “information asymmetry” that can make equity offerings especially expensive for some smaller, high-growth companies (or any firm with little additional debt capacity where management is convinced its shares are undervalued). Mandatory convertibles play a similar role for larger, often highly leveraged or financially troubled, companies that are seeking equity capital, but want to avoid unnecessary dilution. Much as convertibles accomplish for smaller growth firms, mandatory convertibles enable large issuers with growth (or recovery) prospects that may not be fully reflected in their current stock prices to “signal” their confidence. (In designing “synthetic” convertibles, by contrast, investment bankers are choosing larger growth companies like Microsoft and Amgen that tend to avoid issuing securities with appreciable interest or dividend requirements.)After describing their potential benefits for investors and issuers, I go on to describe the main features and the valuation of three classes of these securities: PERCS, DECS, and mandatory convertibles with a value guarantee. For each of these three types, I present a fairlysimple valuation method—one that decomposes the securities into three basic components that are each readily valued individually: (1) the current value of the underlying common stock; (2) the fixed-income cash flow; and (3) the stock options embedded in the security.A SAMPLER OF MANDATORY CONVERTIBLES•PERCS. In October 1992, Citicorp issued $1 billion of PERCS at $14.75, which was also the price of its common stock at the time. The PERCS paid an annual dividend of $1.217 (or 8.25% of the issue price) while Citicorp’s common was paying no dividend. In addition, the PERCS were required to be converted into common stock on November 30, 1995, with the value of the common stock issued per PERCS not to exceed $20.28.•DECS. In October 1993, American Express issued $772 million of DECS at $36.75, the price of First Data Corp. common stock. (FDC was formerly a wholly-owned subsidiary of American Express that had been taken public in 1992, and American Express still owned 21.5% of the stock at the time of the DECS issue.) The DECS paid a coupon of 6.25% on notes that hadto be exchanged on October 15, 1996 for First Data common stock. The exchange rate was set at one common share per DECS if the maturity price of the stock was less or equal to $36.75; for a maturity price between $36.75 and $44.875, the exchange rate was defined such that the exchange value of the common would equal $36.75; and, for a maturity price greater or equal to $44.875, the exchange rate was 0.819 common shares per DECS, thus allowing the holders to receive 81.90/o of the price appreciation above $44.875. The DECS issue enabled American Express to liquidate its position in FDC without triggering capital gains taxes (which were put off until the maturity date of the DECS), while at the same time deducting the interest paid on the exchangeable notes from its current taxable income.•Bonds with Knock-out Warrants. In July 1993, Benetton issued 200 billion lira of bonds with three-year knock-out equity warrants. The warrants could be exercised at L17,983, which was 96% of the common stock price at the time of the issue, and they gave the investor the option to receive common stock on a one-to-one basis as long as the stock price was less than or equal to L29,873. Above this price, each warrant was to receive a fractional share with value equal to L29,873, thus capping the appreciation potential of the security. In addition, Benetton guaranteed a maturity price of not less than L21,543, thereby guaranteeing investors a minimum appre-ciation of 15%. However, if the share price exceeded the “knock-out” price of L24,353 any time during the life of the warrants, the downside protection would disappear (i.e., be “knocked out”).•Tax-deductible PERCS. In October 1996, SunAmerica issued $375 million of tax-deductible 8% PERCS Units.4 Tax deductibility was accom-plished by issuing a forward purchase contract for common stock of the company sold to equity investors. The proceeds from these purchase con-tracts were used to purchase U.S. Treasury Notes on behalf of the holders, which in turn were pledged with a depository as collateral to the purchase contract. The holders will receive the interest on the_________________________________________________________________________________________________4. PERCS in this ease was defined by Morgan Stanley to stand for ‘PremiumEquity Redemption Cumulative Security units’ in order to differentiate it from theoriginal non-tax-deductible formVOLUME 10 NUMBER 1 • SPRING 199755Treasury Notes plus a supplement paid by the issuer. In addition, SunAmerica issued $375 million of 6.2% notes to fixed-income investors. At settlement, the issuer can use the proceeds from the forward purchase contract to pay off the principal of the notes. This structure provided SunAmerica with both equity treatment by the rating agencies and a tax shield from the interest paid on the notes.EXPLAINING THE DEMAND FORMANDATORY CONVERTIBLESMandatory convertibles, and convertibles in general, have reached record levels in recent years as new issue volume exceed redemptions of dollar-denominated convertibles by almost $5 billion in 1995 and 1996. New issues of DECS alone exceeded $5 billion during this period, with more than $3 billion accounted for by issues exchangeable into the securities of units divested by the issuers. What would account for the recent surge in their popularity?On the demand side, investors are seeking current yield, capital appreciation, or some combi-nation of the two depending on the their cash requirements and tax situation. In addition, for any given return they attempt to minimize their risk by seeking downside protection and liquidity. With the recent decline of interest rates and dividend yields, those investors seeking higher current income created a demand that could be met by those issuers willing to offer a higher dividend yield than that provided by their common stock.Issuers, on the other hand, attempt to offer less of some or all of these attributes sought by investors. The role of the banker is to design a financial instrument that fits into the financial plan of the issuer and falls within the set of securities demanded by investors at a particular point in time. Securities that are popular with investors attract market makers, who in turn provide liquidity and pricing with narrow bid-ask spreads.5To some extent, there is always a gap between the information possessed by issuers and investors with respect to the risks or the appreciation potentialof a security. Equity-linked securities are particularly appropriate for closing that gap because their value is less sensitive than either conventional (straight) bonds or stocks to changes in the risk of the issuer. Investors holding convertibles of firms that become riskier after issuance of the securities experience two offsetting effects: although their claim to income decreases in value, their option on the company stock built into the convertible becomes more valuable because of the higher volatility of the stock.6This argument, which applies to mandatory as well as ordinary convertible securities, may be especially useful in explaining the appeal of “syn-thetic” mandatory convertibles to investors. The investment bankers that have been concocting such securities for their investors have likely discovered that investors are willing to pay a price greater than the value of the sum of the parts (a “financing synergy,” if you will) when a high-income stream is combined with a certain amount of upside potential associated with “glamour” firms like Microsoft, Merck, and Amgen.But how does this “financial synergies” argu ment apply to those mandatory convertibles actually issued by corporations? To see why information asymmetry can become an important financing concern, imagine you are the treasurer of a Fortune 500 company that is already fairly highly leveraged, and that your firm has recently experienced a sharp downturn in earnings. Assume further that, although management is convinced the downturn will be fairly temporary, your stock price is trading at only half its former high. (Think of Citicorp in 1992, for example, when its stock price had fallen well below $15 from a former high of over $35.)In these circumstances, your company—like the smaller high-growth firms that often issue ordinary convertibles—would generally prefer to issue new equity rather than debt. But, like many high-growth issuers of convertibles, you face an information problem: In management’s view, the current stock price does not reflect the firm’s longer-term prospects, and so issuing equity would cause exces-_________________________________________________________________________________________________5. The relationship between the firm’s value and the size of its investor pool is examined in Merton, “A Simple Model of Capital Market Equilibrium with Incomplete information,” Journal of Finance, Vol. 42, July 1987. See also Yakov Amihud and Haim Mendelsohn, “Liquidity and Cost of Capital Implications for Corporate Management,” Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Vol. 2 No. 3 (Fall 1989).6. This property of convertibles was first noted by Michael Brennan and Eduardo Schwartz, “The case for Convertibles,” Chase Financial Quarterly. Spring 1982. Reprinted i n Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Vol. 1 No. 2 (Spring 1988).There is always a gap between the information possessed by issuers and investors with respect to the risks or the appreciation potential of a security. Equity-linked securities are particularly appropriate for closing that gap.sive dilution of the existing shareholders’ value. Moreover, just announcing the firm’s intention to issue equity in these circumstances would probably depress the stock price further, thus resulting in further dilution.This justification for mandatory convertibles applies to a number of issuers in the early ‘90s, including General Motors and RJR Nabisco as well as Citicorp, each of which felt compelled to restructure their balance sheets because of their high levels of debt combined with low equity valuations. At the time of their mandatory convertible issues, each of these three companies had become relatively risky firms in the view of investors. And, in order to reduce the information costs that come with the issuance of common equity in such circumstances, it was natural for them to offer mandatory convertibles instead. In exchange for paying higher dividends during the initial years, these issuers were able to issue less costly, “delayed” common equity, while receiving full (or nearly full) equity credit from rating agencies and regulators.In such cases, mandatory convertibles have a number of benefits:• When compared to an issue of straight subordi-nated debt, mandatory convertibles limit excessive financial (default) risk by substituting preferred dividends for interest payments for a period of just a few years. Because the preferred dividends can be waived and accumulated if the downturn proves worse than expected, mandatory convertibles are typically viewed as equity equivalents by the rating agencies. • Mandatory convertibles reduce the negative signaling “effect,” and the resulting dilution of value, associated with conventional equity offerings. By using the promise of several years’ higher income to limit investors’ participation in the upside, the issuance of mandatory convertibles provides a stronger expression of confidence in the firm’s future to the investment community. (This is especially true in the case of PERCS, where, as we will see below, the firm is effectively purchasing a call option on its own stock from its new equityholders.)But the ability of mandatory convertible pre-ferred securities to reduce the costs associated with investor uncertainty is not the only argument for issuing them. The latest versions, as represented by the SunAmerica issue cited at the beginning of this article, also provide tax benefits relative to conven- tional equity. Tax-deductible structures provide a tax shield on most of the fixed charge as well as equity treatment from Moody’s and S&P for more than 90% of the issue. Moreover, convertible perpetual preferred stock, when issued by a special purpose trust that in turn lends the proceeds to the company, also permits tax deductibility; but because such securities do not ensure mandatory conversion into equity, they receive lower equity “credit” from rating agencies.Mandatory convertibles also provide a mixture of income and appreciation that can result in a greater after-tax return to taxable investors than that provided by pure fixed-income securities. This is particularly true for many European investors who enjoy favorable tax treatment of capital gains. Also, the equity risk to which investors are exposed can be reduced by a price guarantee of the kind provided by the Benetton issue described earlier.VALUING PERCSNow we turn to the valuation of mandatory convertibles, and let’s begin by considering the case of PERCS. The first step in valuing a complex security is to break it down into its most basic components.A PERCS is made up of three components:• A dividend cash flow received until the PERCS maturity;•A common share to be received at maturity;•A call option on the company’s stock written by the PERCS holder to the company.In equation form,P K = PV(cv div) – PV(cm div) + P – Call(X) (1) where P K is the value of the PERCS, PV is present value, cv div and cm div are the dividends on the convertibles and on the common, respectively; P is the price of the common stock; and Call(X) is a call option on the common stock of the issuer expiring at the PERCS maturity in which the strike price begins at X0 and decreases at a daily rate until its equals the PERCS cap X at maturity.The valuation of the first two components is straightforward. The third component reflects the value to the issuer of the cap on the upside appre-ciation of the PERCS; any further appreciation of the common stock above the cap does not accrue to the PERCS holder. Moreover, the specification that the investor receives a fractional share of common stockwith value equal to the cap at maturity7 makes a PERCS the equivalent of the following two transac-tions: (1) the issuer gives the holder a full share of stock and (2) the holder gives the company a call option with strike price equal to the cap.PERCS Dividend: In valuing the PERCS divi-dend, one may be tempted to discount it at the yield of the company’s outstanding preferred stock, if any, or at the yield of straight preferred stock of comparable companies. But because such yields reflect required returns on assets of long duration, they should not be applied to a cash flow to be received only during the following three years. A better choice is the rate paid by the company on subordinated notes with approximately the same duration as the PERCS dividend. For example, Citicorp’s subordinated notes were priced at an 80-basis point spread over Treasuries, or about 5.3% at the time of the PERCS issue. Using 5.3% as the discount rate,8 one would estimate the expected present value (on October 15, 1992) of the 13 PERCS dividends to be paid over the next 37 1/2 months to be $3. 49.9Common Dividend: Citicorp common stock at issue time was trading at $14.75, but PERCS holders forgo any dividends paid to common stockholders prior to the maturity of the PERCS. Thus, the value of the stock to be received at maturity is the price of the stock at issue time minus the present value of the dividends forgone. At the time of the PERCS issue, Citicorp paid no dividend but investors expected Citicorp to reinstate its dividend in 1994.10Citicorp annual dividend per share prior to its discontinuation was$1. The common dividend forgone can be discounted at the same rate as the preferred dividend (based on the assumption that the payment of short-term dividends is more certain than the firm’s longer-run earnings prospects).11The expected present value of Citicorp quarterly dividends forgone as of October 15 was $1.78. Therefore, the value of the common share minus the dividends forgone was $14.75 minus $1.78, or $12.97. This analysis also implies that the value of the PERCS dividend exceeded that of the common dividend forgone by $3.49 minus $1.78, or $1.71.Value of the Call Option: We have seen that the cap on the PERCS is equivalent to the holder’s having written a call option on Citicorp stock. More precisely, the holder has given the issuer an “Asian” (or average-price) call option,12 with a payoff that de-pends on the five-day average price of the underlying stock. The value of the call can be calculated based on the following six parameters:(1) the strike price ($20.28, which equals the cap value);(2) the current stock price adjusted for dividends forgone ($12.70);13(3) the time to expiration (3 years and 17 days);14(4) the risk-free rate of interest (4.5%, which was the yield on Treasury Notes maturing 11/95);(5) volatility (36%, as implied in the pricing of Citicorp CBOE Jan ‘95 options); and(6) averaging period (5 days).The estimated value of the call based on the values assigned to these six parameters is $1.73.15 Combining the above results shows the esti-mated value of Citicorp PERCS at the time of issue to have been $14.73:PERCS dividend — Common stock dividend $1.71+ Stockprice 14.75 – Call option PERCS value (1.73)$14.73_________________________________________________________________________________________________7. Actually, PERCS holders receive a number of shares equal to the cap divided by the average of closing prices during the five trading days ending two days before the notice date, which should be at least 30 days before conversion.8. All rates are expressed in bond equivalent yields.9. Citicorp’s PERS paid thirteen quarterly dividends, the first on November 30, 1992 (for the period October 15-November 29), and successive dividends on February 28, May 31, August 31 and November 30.10. On October 8, 1992, at a meeting with analysts and investors the week before the PERCS issue, Citicorp’s CEO John Reed said Citicorp was likely to resume paying dividend in 1994. See New York Times, October 9,1992, p. D1. 11. Strictly speaking, one should discount each year’s equity cash flow at a rate reflecting its own equity premium. But since the systematic risk of short-term dividends is close to zero, one can justify discounting them at rates that contain negligible risk premiums.12. The value of Asian options depends on the value of the asset not at expiration, but rather on the average value of a specified time period. For the precise analytic approximation to the value of average options used in this paper, see M. Curran. “Beyond Average Intelligence,” Risk, November 1992. Reprinted in R. Jarrow, ed., Over the Reinbow, Risk Publications, London, 1995, pp. 167-168. The effect of averaging is to reduce the volatility of the option. When the averaging period is large in relation to the maturity of the option, the values of Asian options are significantly lower than those of the corresponding European options. In the case of PERCS, the averaging periods are short, and thus averaging has a small effect on value at the time of issue.13. The issue of PERCS brings the initial equity of the company to V =nP + mP K =(n+m)P, where m is the number of PERCS issued and n is the number of common shares outstanding prior to the PERCS issue. Subtracting the dividend payments (see for example, J. C. Hull, Options, Futures and other Derivative Securities, 2nd. ed., Prentice-Hall, p. 233) yields V* =(n+m)P – [nPV(cm div) + mPV(cv div)] which, upon division by n+m gives the price input to use in the call formula V*/(n+m) =14.75 –(68 ×3.49 ÷366 ×1.78)/434 –$12.70.14 The effective expiration date of the call is 30-day shorter than maturity. See fn. 7.15. Citicorp had the right to call the PERCS at any time at the initial price of $23.931, declining by $.003262 each day until it reached the cap. This was taken into account by valuing the PERCS using the approximation suggested by Fisher B lack for Amencan options (in “Facts and Fantasy in the Use of Options,” Financial Analysts Journal, July-August 1975, pp. 36-41 and 61-72). The value of the call corresponds to the minimum value of the PERCS, which in this case is assumed at expiration.Convertible securities reduce the costs of “information asymmetry” that can make equity offerings especially expensive for some smaller, high-growth companies. Mandatory convertibles play a similar role for larger, often highly leveraged or financially troubled, companies that are seeking equity capital, but want to avoidunnecessary dilution._______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________FIGURE 1VALUE OF CITICORP PERCS_________________________________________________________________________________________________ The PERCS were issued at $14.75, the closing stock price on October 14, 1992. And, in fact, mandatory convertibles are typically designed so as to have the same value as the common stock at the time of issue. The common stock price is a natural choice for the initial value of these securities because they are contracts that obligate the buyer to purchase the common stock on a deferred basis.16The value of Citicorp PERCS as a function of the common stock price is presented in Figure 1.DESIGNING MANDATORY CONVERTIBLESPERCS issuers face a tradeoff between provid-ing investors with higher dividend income or greater potential price appreciation. The higher the preferred dividend relative to the common dividend, the lower the cap investors will accept. Conversely, the lower the preferred dividend, the higher the cap, and thus the greater the potential price appreciation that is required to attract investors.Of course, the trade-off is operative only within limits. In fact, for an exercise price X that is suffi-ciently high, the cap is effectively removed, with Call(X) ≈ 0 and PV(cv div) ≈ PV(cm div). In this case, the PERCS would have the same payoff as thecommon stock and will not be of interest to the yield oriented investors to which the PERCS is directed. On the other hand, a sufficiently high dividend will result in a cap so low that the PERCS effectively becomes a three-year subordinated note with no stock appreciation potential.As the above logic suggests, we can use the well-known relationship of put-call parity to trans-form equation (1) for Citicorp PERCS into the following equivalent: a three-year subordinated note minus a put written by the holder to the issuer. Expressed as an equation,P K = B(cv div, X) – Put(X)(2)where B(cv div, X) = the value of a three-year sub-ordinated note paying a quarterly coupon equal to the PERCS dividend and having face value due at maturity equal to X, the PERCS cap;17 and Put(X) = a put on the common stock of the issuer expiring at the PERCS maturity date with strike price X.Equation (2) shows how simple it is for invest-ment bankers to create synthetic mandatory convert-ibles, such as the issues of ELKS, YEELDS, and CHIPS mentioned earlier, without the need for an original issuer. In principle, a banker can supply PERCS-like instruments on any public company and___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________16. The discrepancy between the valuation above and the actual issue price may be due to a slight overestimation of the volatility of the call. The implied volatility of the PERCS priced at $14.75 is 35.8%. Note that the expiration date of the CBOE options on which the volatility is based is 283 days shorter than the PERCS. Available empirical evidence suggests that volatility is smaller for longer maturities. See M. Rubinstein, “Nonparametric Tests of Alternative OptionsPricing Models Using All the Reported Trades and Quotes on the 30 Most Active CBOE Options Classes from August 23, 1976 through August 31, 1978,” Journal of Finance, 40, June 1985, pp 455-480. 17. The principal of this note is essentially riskless because there is no uncertainty concerning the settlement of the PERCS at maturity.3025 2015 1050 10 20 30 40 Stock Price33PE R C S Va l u e。