宏观经济研究宏观经济周报去杠杆和地产调控有利资金流入股市政府的去杠杆政策将有利于股市长期发展。
10月10日，国务院公布《关于积极稳妥降低企业杠杆率的意见》。
中国人民银行表示将积极支持有关政策，我们预期央行未来将会进一步宽松货币政策。
本轮人民币贬值还没结束。
我们预计美元/人民币将在本轮下跌至6.83，即较8月低位6.63贬值约3%。
在宽松的货币环境下，房地产市场的紧缩措施将有利股市。
为抑制房地产市场炒作，近20个城市在国庆节期间推出房地产限购措施，政策力度较2011年和2013年更为严厉。
由于货币政策倾向宽松，我们预期股市长远将可受益于资金流向的转变。
股票市场将受益于政府去杠杆政策国际清算银行的数据显示，截至2015年底，中国的债务总额累计约人民币172万亿，占GDP 的255%。
也就是说，虽然中国的人均指标和城市化率仍然远远落后发达国家，但债务占GDP 比率已经接近发达国家的水平。
更重要的是，中国非金融机构的债务占GDP 的比重已经上升到171%，高于其他主要经济体（美国71%；日本101%；欧元区103%）。
关于中国银行贷款，国际货币基金组织在4月发表的《全球金融稳定报告》中提述，中国上市公司的风险债务占债务总额的比率高达14.1%。
虽然其中的数据运算方法受到争议，但我们预测，一并计入需要关注贷款及影子银行融资后，潜在风险贷款率约为7%/人民币8.5万亿，远高于官方公布截至2016上半年底的不良贷款比率1.75%/人民币1.4万亿。
然而，由于M2/贷款增长率仍远高于名义GDP 增长率，总负债比率将于未来几年继续上升。
在这情况下，政府可能会将部分企业债务转移到低杠杆的经济部门，即家庭部门和中央政府。
宏观经济研究2016年10月13日2016中国宏观经济预测Q1(A)Q2(A)Q3Q4实际GDP 按年% 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.8 CPI 按年% 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.3 M2按年% 13.4 11.8 13.3 13.0 7天回购利率% 2.85 2.7 2.7 2.65 10年国债收益率%2.84 2.84 2.60 2.50 美元兑人民币6.476.646.907.00资料来源：国信证券（香港）余晶晶证监会中央编号:BDF565 +852 2899 8342Janice.yu@In terms of the incremental debt, the transform of indirect financing (bank loans) into direct financing (equity and fixed income), which was the focus of financial reform scheme mentioned in the third plenary session of the 18th central committee of CPC in 2013, has been put on the agenda again.On Oct 10, the State Council published “The opinions on lowering the corporate leverage actively yet prudently”. Within the document, the government addressed the development of equity market as a main solution of deleveraging, including: 1) to broaden the sources of funding of equity investment, such as insurance capital, enterprise annuities, pension insurance and household deposits; 2) to propel the debt-to-equity swap of bank loans; 3) to develop the private equity funds, and research on the transfer board system from NEEQ (new three board) to ChiNext; 4) to promote the enterprise’s M&A, which will help to drive the new round of SOE reform theme. In a word, the government would like to cultivate and strengthen the stock market to absorb the part of debts from traditional direct financing.As PBOC has stated that it will actively support that policy, we expect the central bank will expand the easing monetary policy in the future, including the increase of base money, the reduction of official 7 days repo rate or SLF rate, and the RRR-cut.RMB depreciation is still on-goingDuring the Nation ’s holiday, the USD/CNY has devalued from 6.67 to 6.72 (0.5%). Fundamentally, because of the rising market expectation on easing monetary policy, the 10 years bond yield has maintained as low as 2.7% from this Sep, recording as the lowest level since the April of 2002. Considering the Fed ’s rate-hike possibility in this December, the spread between China-US bond yields will continue to narrow in coming months, resulting in depreciation pressure on RMB rate further.We reckon that this round of RMB depreciation has not ended. In light of the USD/CNH swap rates, the efforts on foreign exchange intervention has maintained modest after SDR inclusion. The one-week swap rates stay at around 60bps, while it gone up to 220bps/465bps in last August and this January respectively.Since last October, RMB has depreciated against USD substantially for three times. Firstly, On 11 August 2015, the PBOC slashed the mid-rate by over 1,000bp and CNY/USD depreciated from 6.20 to 6.32, a single-day loss of 1.8%. Secondly, from November 2015 to mid-January 2016, RMB devalued 4.3% from 6.32 to 6.58. Thirdly, during May to mid-July 2016, RMB devalued 3.3% from 6.47 to 6.69. In this case, we expect USD/CNY will fall to 6.83 for this round, that is, 3% from low point of 6.63 in this August.Figure 4 Swap rates show that the efforts on foreign exchange interventionFigure 5 RMB has depreciated against USD substantially for three timesProperty market tightening measures will benefit stock market under loose money conditionIn September, the 30 cities ’ property sales has grew for 28.8% YoY, improved a bit from 26.8% in August. Meanwhile, the Sep MoM growth of 100 cities housing price index advanced to 2.83% comparing with 2.17% in last month. The performance continues to differentiate among major cities, while Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Chengdu and Suzhou turned out to be the new leading cities. In fact, the rotation of hot cities is an obvious feature of speculation.Given the descending economic growth, we reckon that the property-related investment almost peaked as well. Firstly, the YoY growth of property investment has rebounded consecutively for eight months since 2016. Secondly, the proportion of real estate in GDP has reached around 9%, serving as the highest level since 2011.Figure 8 The YoY growth of property investment has reboundedFigure 9 The proportion of real estate in GDP has reached around 9%To curb the property speculation, nearly 20 cities have introduced the measures for home purchase restrictions during the National day holiday, while the policy efforts have exceeded that of 2011 and 2013. In the previous two periods, the YoY growth of property sales dropped 1-2 months after the publication of restrictive policies.However, the monetary conditions differed in last two rounds of housing restrictions. In particular, the central government lifted the interest rate in 2011, whereas they maintained a stable lending conditions in 2013. In this case, as the monetary policy will tend to be easing, we expect the stock market will probably benefit from the liquidity rotation in longer term.Figure 10 The monetary conditions differed in 2011 and 2013Figure 11 The stock market will probably benefit from the liquiditySource: Guosen Securities(HK) Research, WindInformation DisclosuresStock ratings, sector ratings and related definitionsStock Ratings:Buy: A return potential of 10 % or more relative to overall market within 6 – 12 months.Neutral: A return potential ranging from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 – 12 months.Sell: A negative return of 10% or more relative to overall market within 6 –12 months.Sector Ratings:Overweight: The sector will outperform the overall market by 10% or higher within 6 –12 months.Neutral: The sector performance will range from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 –12 months.Underweight: The sector will underperform the overall market by 10% or lower within 6 – 12 months.Interest disclosure statementThe analyst is licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. 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