The analysis report on steel export1.The recently domesticsteel marketAt present the partial air factors, Kim nine is disappointed, silver ten will be hopeless, currently on the market for the market in October basic have cautious pessimism, even a business for the fourth quarter of this year is also relatively cautious .There’re many factors in fact that can been controlling the steel market trend. Risk factors for continued tightening credit policy tone; macro-economic growth is apparently abate, automotive, real estate, home appliances and other downstream industry needs badly; steel production time and amplitude uncertainty.In late October, the domestic construction steel market prices fell, but the deal was not significantly better. Traders mentality extremely unstable, for the latter part of the market is not optimistic .This caused the market a low-cost discard fashion, from the overall situations,the current spot market transactions are stronglylow-cost resources. Business strategy between price war grows in intensity. For the short-term market, businesses that billet and imported ore continued to drop, so that the original cost of material supporting force weakened gradually .In the period of steel electronic wheel fell sharply in the process, increasing the market panic heart serious, goods rejection phenomenon. But with the recent threaded futures wheel oversold condition, near the end of month existence possibility in the market oversold bounce, the market formed a certain support,the domestic construction steel plummet may be narrowed.2007.1-2010.1 steel capacityOverall, October domestic construction steel price indicated an expanded fall. Until October 24th, the domestic 25mm threaded steel price at 4218 yuan / tons ,compared to the same period last month to drop 502 yuan / ton;The Beijing 25mm in the price of 4160 yuan / ton, compared to the same period last month to drop 540 yuan / ton; The Shanghai 18-25mm in the price of 4370 yuan / ton, compared to the same period last month drop 270 yuan / ton; The Guangzhou18-25mm in the price of 4410 yuan / ton, compared to the same period last month to drop 550 yuan / ton; Domestic 6.5mm high price of 4407 yuan / ton, compared to the same period last month to drop 452 yuan / ton; Beijing 6.5mm high price of the 4220 yuan / tons, compared to the same period last month to drop 480 yuan / ton; shanghai 6.5mm the high price of 4330 yuan / ton, compared to the same period last month to drop 470 yuan / ton, Guangzhou 6.5mm in the price of 4390 yuan / ton, compared to the same period last month to drop 590 yuan / ton.T here’re 136 steel production lines in October that plan to produce a total of 8,750,000 tons, relatively increasing 802,000 tons per month.2008.12-2010.12 steel stock2.The trend in the end of 2011 of steel marketIn September the steel export proportion and steel straight-offer drops in quantity.The domestic economic growth fell back, monetary policy slanting closely, shrinking to downstream demand, market sentiment hedge warming, and a wheel drop in price starts. Affected by the bad factors of non-benefit, within the winter’s approaching, steel demand growth slowly is an indisputable fact.The above factors, now the domestic construction steel market, the boundary between weak season and busy season has become increasingly blurred. Under the circumstance of current global economic slowdown, the European debt crisis failing to resolve, the domestic real estate market prospecting darkly, and the regulating policy on economics’ still not relaxing, construction steel market is still not optimistic. After the mid of October, the steel future market show a strong reboundwith a small rebound in spot market. Due to sharp decline in October, in November there will be a slight rebound in the market, but the range is not too large .It’s affected by airtemperaturein the winter ,the market demand in the north will drop;At the same time ,the pressure in south market of resources increasing , it is expected the latter part of the domestic construction steel market will remain vulnerable .Generally consideration,It’s expected in early November, the domestic construction steel market prices will rebound, in the latershake slightly.Steel and iron industry will have a high speed pace of restructuring, the situation that North-South light will change. In 2015, the proportion of concentration of the first ten industries should be changed from 48.6% in the end of 2010 to 60%. It has already no time to delay for the development mode’s change of China' steel and iron industry. "The Twelfth-Five-Year’s Development plan in Steel and Iron Industry " formally introduced, it’s no doubt it points out the direction of the transformation and upgrading for steel and iron industry in the period of The Twelfth-Five-Year .the iron and steel industry" Twelfth Five-Year Plan" some expertpoint out," plan" will lead the steel industry to usher in a new development. "Plan" will accelerate the pace of restructuring of the steel industry, raising the level of industry concentration, and optimizing the regional layout, changing the "North-South light" situation.3.Export over these yearsAfter twenty-first Century, economy of our country entered a period of rapid growth, strong steel demand driven the increase of steel imports sharply. In 2003 China's steel imports reached a record of 37,160,000 tons. 1995-2003, China's steel exports relatively stable, ranging in 300-700 million tons. From the beginning of 2004, due to the rapid growth of domestic steel production, steel imports have fallen significantly, export increases continuously. By 2006, China's steel import and export situation has a historic breakthrough, from a net importer of steel became the world's largest steelexporter .Annual export capacity of 43,030,000 tons, imports amounted to 18,520,000 tons, achieve 24,510,000 tons of net exports of steel, steel consumption accounted for the world in increments of 42.39%. In 2007 China's steel exports reached62,710,000 tons, continue to increase substantially.2006.1-2009.2 exports of steel4.The proportion of exportsChina’s major exporting countries as Korea, American, European a nd Southeast Asia .During 2001-2006 the steel quantity China exports to the above four countries grows considerably ,in addition to the drop of 23.5% exporting to the United States in 2007, the exports increase significantly in the remaining three zones ,especially in Southeast Asian countries. Both the export amount and export proportion reach 60% and China's main import source as Japan, China Taiwan, South Korea, Russia and The European Union. The imports have increased from these five countries and regions with a small increase rate. The amount of imported steel and the amount of aggregate proportion exceeds 70% of the total import. Sheet is the largest specie in the change of export and import products structure , but in China in recent years due to plate capacity growth is very rapid, and the variety and quality of continuous improvement, to a great extent to replace imports, therefore, plate imports decreased year by year and at the same time, export volume is also increase.2009.1-2010.11 exports of steel productsAt the same time, in recent years, China's wire rod export also showed rapid growth trend. Steel pipe and exports also increased year by year, but the proportion of exportthe declined. In 2001, China imported 14,885,000 tons of plate, the import rose to the highest level in 2003, amounted to 33,249,000 tons; but in 2007 it dropped to 14,291,000 tons. The importproportion of sheet steelhas been above 80% all the time, 2003 sheet steel imports accounted for the proportion reached 89.5%, 2006 to 83.9%, slightly to 84.7% in 2007. The export of mainsteel products showed asubstantial grow. Among all the products of steel export market, particularly it has a fast grow in the bar and plate. In 2001 the export plate only 1,755,000 tons, in 2007 increased to 28,318,000 tons, grow 15 times than that in 2001, accounts for the proportion to rise from 37.1% to 45.2%. Export of rod and wire from 942,000 tons, to 16,247,000 tons in 2007, grow 16 than that in 2001, accounts for the proportion to rise from 19.9% to 25.9%. Exports of steel pipe also increased year by year, but exports accounted for the proportion of the total decline. In 2005, China's net imports of plate have been broke by net exports. At presents, all the main five steel products still maintain net export. In 2007, most of the varieties of wire rod were China's net export, about 15,184,000 tons, followed by the plate, which reached 14,027,000 tons; and the third is the pipe,net exports of 8,564,000 tons.The comparison exporting volume to different countriesIn a specific point, exports of steel plate account for the proportion apparently, and galvanized rectangular tube rose by 8 percentage points. From the growth rate, the increase rate of thick wide strip, hot rolling steel strip, narrow cold rolled wide strip, plate, and medium plate account for more than 110%. So the above-mentioned products export has a good recovery. Although the domestic steel production has increased, but exports rise even more, causing the export proportion majority of steel products accounted for is climbed up considerably.。
