A Model of Hailstorms Forecast
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ArticleID: 1009-3818(2002)03-0052-02AModelofHailstormsForecast*FUZHi-jun(ShanxiProvinceKeyLab.ofhazardMonitoringandMechanismSimulating,BaojiCollegeofArtsandSciences,BaojiShanxi,721007)
Abstract: Accordingtothestatisticaldataofthehailstormsin-stancesandthegroundtemperatureatzerocenturies,regressionmedolisbuilt.Usingtheregressionmedol,thehailstormsstrengthwillbeforecastedinQianlongarea,ShaanxiProvince.Keywords: hailstorms;forecastmodel;QianlongareaCLCNumber: P458.1 DocumentCode: A
QianlongareaincludesLongxian,Qianyang,andFengxiangthreecountriesintheGuanzhongbasininShanxiProvince,iscontigoustoTianshuiCityandPingliangareainGansuProvince,andislaidin106b26cto107b38cEand34b20cto35b6cN,area4462km2.Itisoneofthemain-producingareainShanxiProvince,andalsoafrenquently-occuringhailstormarea[1].
1 NaturalenvironmentconditionsQianlongareaisQianheriverbasinregion,altitudefrom595to2466m,relativeheight1871m.AccordingtointegratedphsicogeographicalrecongnizationofBaoji,Guanshanstonemiddlemountainsclimaticregioninthewest,Qianherivervalleyplainheat-temperaturezonehu-mid-halfhumidclimaticregioninthecentre,Beishanloesshandformtemperaturezonehalfhumid-humidcl-imaticregioninthenorth,andGuanzhongbasinWeibeitablelandheattemperaturezonehalfhumidclimaticregionintheeastofit.Meantemperature-2.57einJan.andmeandaycomparativetemperature10.93e,meantem-perature23.67eandmeandaycomparativetemperature10.47einJul.,meandaysoftheheighttemeperatureoverorequal35eis3.73days.Meanprecipitation629.23mm
Receiveddate:2002-04-18Biography:FUZHi-jun(1960-),male,Professor,Master,directoroflab.*Foundationitem:ThefundofnaturalscienceintheEducationDepartmentofShanxiProvince(No.99JK0135).
yearly,meansunshine2053hours,andmeansolarradia-tion46.68@108J/m2.
2 AnalysesofhailstormssourceinQianlongarea Accordingto420hailstormsinstancesofPingliangareainGansuProvinceand177hailstormsinstancesofQianlongareainShaanxiProvince,from1962to1981inChina(table1),analysesasfellows:(1)fromApt.toOct.yearly,about66percenthailstormsofQianlongareaaretakenbackgroudofhailstormsinPingliangarea.ThesehailstormsareformedatJingning,ZhuanglongorPingliangnearbyLiupanshanMt.,whichjumpforwardatfallinghail-movement-fallinghail-movement-fallinghailpatterninwestornorthwestwind,theintervaloffallinghailregionisdecideddyatmosphericcriculationconditionsandmeteorologicalclimaticindifferentregions,about50to100km;(2)about34percenthailstormsrelatewiththeclimaticsystemandnaturalgeographicalenviron-mentinQianlongarea,andrelatewithclimateconditioninPingliangarea,i.e.34percenthailstormsofQianlongareaaren.ttakenplacebackgroundofhailstormsinPingliangarea.
3 Therelationshipbetweenhailstormsandthegroudtemperatureatzerocentimetre Thedistributionsofthetimeandthespaceofhai-lstormscann.tbalanceinQianlongarea(table2).Fromtable2,thehailstormsinstancesinLongxiancountyisthemostinQianlongarea,becauseofhailstormsinQianyangandFengxiangcountiescausedfromLongxiancounty,studiesonhailstormsofLongxiancountyinQianlongareaistapicalsense.
第14卷第3期常德师范学院学报(自然科学版)Vol.14No.32002年9月JournalofChangdeTeachersUniversity(NaturalScienceEdition)Sep.2002 Withtheneedofmeteorologicaldepartment,thegroudtemperatureatzerocentimetreisobservedat8:00,14:00,and20:00dailyinthestations[2].At234hai-lstormsinstancesofLongxiancounty,164hailstormsin-stancesappear14:00to20:00daily,before14:00andafter20:00dailyrelativelyreducible,thedistributionofhailstormdayisobviouslysinglehumptype.TheimportantreasonofforminghailstormsinQianlongareaisspeedyriseofgroudtemperatureatzerocentimeter.Thestatist-icaldataoffallinghailsinLongxiancountyafter14:00istable3.Fromtable3,thecomparativemeanvalueofgroudtemperatureatzerocentimetreis16.73to22.93eduringfallinghailmonths,andthecomparativemeanva-lueofgroudtemperatureatzerocentimetreat158haildaysis24.32to29.24e,obviouslyhigherthancomparativevalueofgroudtemperatureatzerocentimetreathailmooth.Alsoin26hailstormsinstancesofcausingserioslyhazards,thecomparativemeanvalueofgroudtemperatureatzerocentimetrefrom23.10to30.35e,ishigherthanmeanvalueofhailmonth.
Table1 ThestatisticsofhailstormsinstancesandthedistributionofmonthHailstormsmonthandtheinstances345678910Total
Pingliangarea2355012687723614420Qianlongarea(A)1421584121182177Relatively(B)812432614122117B/A0.570.570.740.630.670.6710.66
Note:RelativelyistheconditionsofthesamefallinghaildayinQianlongareaandPingliangarea.
Table2 Thecharacteristicofyearlychangeinfallinghailinstances(1962to1994)AreaHaildaysMeanVarianceStandardderiationVariablecoefficientLongxiancounty2347.0913.033.610.51Qianyangcounty320.970.560.750.77Fengxiangcounty371.121.041.020.96Qianlongarea3039.1824.904.990.54