区域气候模式论文：区域气候模式数值模拟对比分析

【关键词】区域气候模式数值模拟对比分析【英文关键词】regional climate model numerical simulation comparative analysis区域气候模式论文：RegCM3.0与RegCM4.0对中国区域气候模拟的对比分析【中文摘要】与全球环流模式相比,高分辨率的区域气候模式不仅可以更好描述物理过程及其参数化,同时又可以获取更小尺度的强迫信息,对于区域与局地气候的描述可以更精确。

中国地处东亚季风区,地形复杂,气候多变,全球模式对中国气候的模拟经常出现明显的偏差,使得区域气候模式在这一区域的的应用更加重要,RegCM系列模式是目前应用最广的区域气候模式之一,2010年6月RegCM的最新版本4.0发行,在很多物理过程上进行了改进,但其在我国气候模拟中目前还没有得到应用,因此检验其在我国的实用性并与上一版本作比较是十分必要的。

本文采用RegCM3及RegCM系列最新版本RegCM4,利用美国国家环境预测中心(NCEP)再分析数据Ⅱ及NOAA的周平均海温资料,对我国4个典型多雨年(1998年,2003年,2007年和20110年)及从1982-2010近30年的夏季气候进行模拟试验,将得到的结果与中国743站降水、温度资料通过诊断和统计检验进行对比分析,并初步探讨不同版本模式对中国区域陆面过程的模拟的差异及其对气候模拟的影响,主要结论如下：(1)从多年平均看,RegCM3、RegCM4-BATS、RegCM4-CLM3.5基本能模拟出中国地区的降水空间型态和主要雨带,但模拟的雨带位置与观测存在一定的偏差,位置整体偏南。

相对而言,RegCM4-BATS模拟的雨带位置与观测更接近,尤其是对东南沿海强降水带的模拟,其他两个方案模拟的强降水范围较小,量值也较低。

(2)三种方案模拟的全国夏季平均降水较观测存在不同程度的偏少。

相对而言,RegCM4-BATS模拟的降水较其他两个方案大,更接近观测,对降水空间分布型态的模拟也较好。

总体而言,三个方案在对湿润区降水的模拟偏少,尤其是RegCM3和RegCM4-CLM3.5,其中在江淮和江南较为突出；对干旱半干旱、半湿润区降水的模拟则偏多,尤其是在东北和高原东部地区。

(3) RegCM3、RegCM4-BATS、RegCM4-CLM3.5三种方案都能够模拟出位于东南沿海及新疆沙漠地带的温度高值区。

RegCM3在东南沿海模拟的温度值较低,另外两种方案模拟的东南沿海温度高值区量值与观测更为接近,但位置略偏北。

三种方案都模拟出了青藏高原冷区的存在,但模拟的冷区范围比观测偏大,并且冷中心的温度也比观测低。

此外,三种方案在天山地区模拟的温度也出现了不同程度的偏低。

(4)三种方案模拟的全国近29年夏季平均温度都小于观测值,三种方案的模拟均存在冷偏差。

RegCM3模拟的夏季平均温度在全国范围偏低较多,相对而言,RegCM4-BATS模拟的夏季平均温度空间分布型态与实际最为接近。

同时RegCM4-BAT在温度年际变化趋势的模拟上与观测较为一致；RegCM4的两种方案相对夏季平均温度长期变化趋势的模拟均优于比RegCM3.0。

(5)模式模拟的感热与温度呈较好的正相关关系,无论是典型年还是多年平均的感热在江淮和华南RegCM4-CLM3.5模拟都较大,而同时其在江淮和华南模拟的温度过高,由此可见陆面过程模拟的准确性对大气过程有较大影响。

三种方案模拟的全国夏季土壤湿度分布较为符合实际。

土壤湿度和降水也有着很好的正相关关系,虽然土壤湿度并不是影响降水的唯一因子,但土壤湿度的量值和分布对降水的模拟有很大影响。

RegCM4-BATS模拟的土壤湿度相对准确,其模拟的降水也总体较好。

【英文摘要】Compare to the global general circulation model (GCM), high resolution regional climate model can not only describe physical processes and their parameterization better, but also get more detailed imformation in smaller scale. Just for such a reason, regional climate model can describe the regional and local climate better than GCM. Climate simulation over China given by GCMs always shows evident bias, because of the complex terrain and changeable climate. Sothe application of regional climate model in China is very important. RegCM is one of most widely used regional climate models. Its latest version RegCM4.0with a lot of improvement in physical process have been issueded in June.2010. Testing its suitable in our country and comparing it to RegCM3is necessary due to no usein China.In this paper, by using RegCM3and RegCM4of NCAR and U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction renalysis II and weekly sea temperature of NOAA, we simulated to four typical raininess year(1998,2003,2007,2010) and the summer near thities years from1982to2010. The conclusion from the simulation have been compared to the national observation precipitation and temperature data from743stations throughing diagnosis and statistical test.At the same time, we preliminary analyze the effect of simulations on land surface processes to atmospheric variables. The main conclusions are as follows:(1) From the years on average precipitation, RegCM3, RegCM4-BATS, RegCM4-CLM3.5all can basically simulate precipitation spatial patterns and primary rainbands in China, but there is a certain deviation between simulated rainbands and oberservation rainbands, the overall southerly. Comparatively speaking, the RegCM4-BATS, simulat rain belts with observations closer, especially with the simulation of heavy precipitation belts along the southeast coast, the other two programs simulate smaller scope of the heavy precipitation area and the value is lower.(2) National average summer precipitation values simulated by the three projects are smaller than the oberservedvalue. Seen from the view of the national area, the three projects simulate precipitation less than normal. Relatively speaking, the precipitation values simulated by RegCM4-BATS which is closer to the observed value and have a better precipitation distribution patterns is larger than the other two projects. The three projects, especially RegCM3and RegCM4-CLM3.5, simulate too few in the humid area, which is more prominent in the south of the Yangtze Rive and the area near the Huai River.In the semi-arid and semi-humid area, especially in the northeast and eastern plateau, they all simulate long bias. (3) The three projects of RegCM3, RegCM4-BATS, RegCM4-CLM3.5are all able to simulate the temperature of the high value areas which are located along the southeast coast and the desert in Xinjiang. RegCM3simulate the low value temperature in the area of southeast coast, the other two projects simulate the same value to the oberservation temperature in the area of southeast coast which have high value of temperature, but the location is northerly. The three projects simulate the existence of the cooling zone of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.The simulated cold area is large than the observation and the cold center temperature is lower than theobservation, below5℃. In addition, due to topographic effects, the simulated temperature is low.(4) the average summer temperature between1982-2010simulated by the three projects is less than the observed values. Seen from the view of the national area, the simulation of the three are cold bias.The summer average temperature simulated by RegCM3is lower more across our country. Relatively speaking, the average summer temperature distribution pattern and the value which simulate by RegCM4-BATS is best. The temperature interannual variability of the trend simulated by RegCM4-BAT is more consistent with the observations. The two kinds of programs of RegCM4is better to compared RegCM3.0on the long-term trend in the average summer temperature simulation(5) There is a good positive correlation between the simulated sensible heat flux and temperature.Whether it is a typical year or the average sensible heat of29years, in the south of the Yangtze Rive and the South China RegCM4-CLM3.5simulate larger.Contrast to temperature distribution shows that RegCM4-CLM3.5simulate high temperature at these areas.we can see that the accuracy of the land surface process simulation have a significant impact on simulation of atmospheric processes, and vice versa.The national summer soil moisture distribution simulated by the three projects is more realistic.There is also a good positive correlation between soil moisture and precipitation. although the soil moisture is not the only factor to affect the precipitation, the magnitude and distribution of soil moisture has a great influence on the precipitation simulation. The soil moisture simulated by RegCM4-BATS is relatively accurate, so it is best to simulate precipitation..【目录】RegCM3.0与RegCM4.0对中国区域气候模拟的对比分析摘要6-8Abstract8-9第一章绪论10-17 1.1 研究背景10 1.2 国内外研究现状10-14 1.3 存在的问题和拟解决的关键问题14-15 1.4 本文的主要研究内容和章节安排15-17第二章模式介绍和数据说明17-24 2.1 模式介绍17-22 2.2 资料和试验设计22-24第三章 REGCM3.0和REGCM4.0对中国夏季典型多雨年气候模拟的对比研究24-46 3.1 模式对降水的模拟对比24-35 3.2 模式对温度的模拟对比35-45 3.3 本章小结45-46第四章 REGCM3.0和REGCM4.0对中国区域近30年夏季气候模拟的对比研究46-59 4.1 模式对降水的模拟对比46-51 4.2 模式对温度的模拟对比51-57 4.3 本章小结57-59第五章模式对地表能量通量及水文过程的模拟比较59-79 5.1 感热和潜热的模拟比较59-70 5.2 土壤湿度的模拟比较70-77 5.3 本章小结77-79第六章结论与讨论79-82 6.1 全文总结79-81 6.2 不足与展望81-82参考文献82-87致谢87。