计量经济学第三版版课后答案全
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第二章(1)①对于浙江省预算收入与全省生产总值的模型,用Eviews分析结果如下:Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/03/14 Time: 17:00Sample (adjusted): 1 33Included observations: 33 after adjustmentsVariable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.??XCR-squared????Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared????. dependent var. of regression ????Akaike info criterionSum squared resid????Schwarz criterionLog likelihood ????Hannan-Quinn criter.F-statistic????Durbin-Watson statProb(F-statistic)②由上可知,模型的参数:斜率系数,截距为—③关于浙江省财政预算收入与全省生产总值的模型,检验模型的显着性:1)可决系数为,说明所建模型整体上对样本数据拟合较好。
2)对于回归系数的t检验:t(β2)=>(31)=,对斜率系数的显着性检验表明,全省生产总值对财政预算总收入有显着影响。
④用规范形式写出检验结果如下:Y=—t= ()R2= F= n=33⑤经济意义是:全省生产总值每增加1亿元,财政预算总收入增加亿元。
(2)当x=32000时,①进行点预测,由上可知Y=—,代入可得:Y= Y=*32000—=②进行区间预测:∑x 2=∑(X i —X )2=δ2x (n —1)= ? x (33—1)=(X f —X)2=(32000—?2当Xf=32000时,将相关数据代入计算得到:即Yf 的置信区间为(—, +)(3) 对于浙江省预算收入对数与全省生产总值对数的模型,由Eviews 分析结果如下:Dependent Variable: LNYMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/03/14 Time: 18:00Sample (adjusted): 1 33Included observations: 33 after adjustmentsVariable Coefficien t Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.??LNXCR-squared ????Mean dependent varAdjusted R-squared ????. dependent var. of regression ????Akaike infocriterionSum squared resid ????Schwarz criterionLog likelihood ????Hannan-Quinncriter.F-statistic ????Durbin-Watson statProb(F-statistic)①模型方程为:lnY=由上可知,模型的参数:斜率系数为,截距为③关于浙江省财政预算收入与全省生产总值的模型,检验其显着性:1)可决系数为,说明所建模型整体上对样本数据拟合较好。
2)对于回归系数的t 检验:t (β2)=>(31)=,对斜率系数的显着性检验表明,全省生产总值对财政预算总收入有显着影响。
④经济意义:全省生产总值每增长1%,财政预算总收入增长%(1)对建筑面积与建造单位成本模型,用Eviews 分析结果如下:Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/01/14 Time: 12:40Sample: 1 12Included observations: 12Variable Coefficien t Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.?? XC R-squared ????Mean dependent varAdjusted R-squared ????. dependent var. of regression ????Akaike infocriterionSum squared resid ????Schwarz criterionLog likelihood ????Hannan-Quinncriter.F-statistic ????Durbin-Watson statProb(F-statistic)由上可得:建筑面积与建造成本的回归方程为:Y=(2)经济意义:建筑面积每增加1万平方米,建筑单位成本每平方米减少元。
(3)①首先进行点预测,由Y=得,当x=,y=②再进行区间估计:∑x 2=∑(X i —X )2=δ2x (n —1)= ? x (12—1)=22—即Yf的置信区间为(—, +)第三章1)对出口货物总额计量经济模型,用Eviews分析结果如下::Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/01/14 Time: 20:25Sample: 1994 2011Included observations: 18Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.??X2X3CR-squared????Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared????. dependent var. of regression ????Akaike info criterionSum squared resid8007316.????Schwarz criterionLog likelihood ????Hannan-Quinn criter.F-statistic????Durbin-Watson statProb(F-statistic)①由上可知,模型为:Y = + -②对模型进行检验:1)可决系数是,修正的可决系数为,说明模型对样本拟合较好2)F检验,F=>F(2,15)=,回归方程显着3)t检验,t统计量分别为X2的系数对应t值为,大于t(15)=,系数是显着的,X3的系数对应t值为,小于t(15)=,说明此系数是不显着的。
(2)对于对数模型,用Eviews分析结果如下:Dependent Variable: LNYMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/01/14 Time: 20:25Sample: 1994 2011Included observations: 18Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.??LNX2 LNX3 CAdjusted R-squared????. dependent var. of regression ????Akaike info criterionSum squared resid????Schwarz criterionLog likelihood ????Hannan-Quinn criter.F-statistic????Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic)①由上可知,模型为:LNY=+ LNX2+ LNX3②对模型进行检验:1)可决系数是,修正的可决系数为,说明模型对样本拟合较好。
2)F检验,F=> F(2,15)=,回归方程显着。
3)t检验,t统计量分别为,,,均大于t(15)=,所以这些系数都是显着的。
(3)①(1)式中的经济意义:工业增加1亿元,出口货物总额增加亿元,人民币汇率增加1,出口货物总额增加亿元。
②(2)式中的经济意义:工业增加额每增加1%,出口货物总额增加%,人民币汇率每增加1%,出口货物总额增加%(1)对家庭书刊消费对家庭月平均收入和户主受教育年数计量模型,由Eviews分析结果如下:Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/01/14 Time: 20:30Sample: 1 18Included observations: 18Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.??XTCR-squared????Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared????. dependent var. of regression ????Akaike info criterionSum squared resid????Schwarz criterionLog likelihood ????Hannan-Quinn criter.F-statistic????Durbin-Watson statProb(F-statistic)①模型为:Y = + 对模型进行检验:1)可决系数是,修正的可决系数为,说明模型对样本拟合较好。
2)F检验,F=> F(2,15)=,回归方程显着。
③经济意义:家庭月平均收入增加1元,家庭书刊年消费支出增加元,户主受教育年数增加1年,家庭书刊年消费支出增加元。
(2)用Eviews分析:①Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/01/14 Time: 22:30Sample: 1 18Included observations: 18Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.??TCR-squared????Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared????. dependent var. of regression ????Akaike info criterionSum squared resid????Schwarz criterionLog likelihood ????Hannan-Quinn criter.F-statistic????Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic)②Dependent Variable: XMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/01/14 Time: 22:34Sample: 1 18Included observations: 18Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.??TCR-squared????Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared????. dependent var. of regression ????Akaike info criterionSum squared resid4290746.????Schwarz criterionLog likelihood ????Hannan-Quinn criter.F-statistic????Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic)模型分别是:Y = -X = +(3)对残差进行模型分析,用Eviews分析结果如下:Dependent Variable: E1Method: Least SquaresDate: 12/03/14 Time: 20:39Sample: 1 18Included observations: 18Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.??E2CR-squared????Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared????. dependent var. of regression ????Akaike info criterionSum squared resid????Schwarz criterionLog likelihood ????Hannan-Quinn criter.F-statistic????Durbin-Watson statProb(F-statistic)模型为:E1= +参数:斜率系数α为,截距为(3)由上可知,β2与α2的系数是一样的。