CHAPTER 10AN OVERVIEW OF RISK MANAGEMENTObjectives« To explore how risk affects finan cial decisi on-mak ing.« To provide a con ceptual framework for the man ageme nt of risk.«To explain how the financial system facilitates the efficient allocation of risk-bearing.Outline10.1 What Is Risk?10.2 Risk and Econo mic Decisi ons10.3 The Risk Ma nageme nt Process10.4 The Three Dime nsions of Risk Tran sfer10.5 Risk Tran sfer and Econo mic Efficie ncy10.6 In stituti ons for Risk Man ageme nt10.7 Portfolio Theory: Quan titative An alysis for Optimal Risk Man ageme nt10.8 Probability Distributions of ReturnsSummary* Risk is defined as uncertainty that matters to people. Risk management is the process of formulating the benefit- cost trade-offs of risk-reduction and deciding on a course of action to take. Portfolio theory is the quantitative analysis of those trade-offs to find an optimal course of action.* All risks are ultimately borne by people in their capacity as consumers, stakeholders of firms and other econo mic orga ni zati ons, or taxpayers.* The risk in ess of an asset or a tra nsacti on cannot be assessed in isolati on or in the abstract; it depe nds on the specific frame of refere nee. In on e con text, the purchase or sale of a particular asset may add to one ' s risk exposure; in another, the same transaction may be risk-reducing.* Speculators are in vestors who take positi ons that in crease their exposure to certa in risks in the hope of in creas ing their wealth. In con trast, hedgers take positi ons to reduce their exposures. The same pers on can be a speculator on some exposures and a hedger on others.* Many resource-allocation decisions, such as saving, investment, and financing decisions, are significantly in flue need by the prese nee of risk and therefore are partly risk-ma nageme nt decisi ons.* We disti nguish among five major categories of risk exposures for households: sick ness, disability, and death job loss; consumer-durable asset risk ; liability risk ; and financial asset risk .* Firms face several categories of risks: production risk , price risk of outputs , and price risk of in puts .* There are five steps in the risk-management process: risk identification, risk assessment, selection of riskman ageme nt tech ni ques, impleme ntati on, review.* There are four techniques of risk management: r isk avoidanee, loss prevention and control, risk retention, risk tra nsfer.* There are three dimensions of risk transfer: hedging , insuring , and diversifying .* Diversificati on improves welfare by spread ing risks among many people, so that the existi ng un certa inty matters less. * From society ' s perspective-n^ageme nt in stituti ons con tribute to econo mic efficie ncy in two importa nt ways. First, they shift risk away from those who are least willing or able to bear it to those who are most willing to bear it. Second, they cause a reallocation of resources to production and consumption in accordance with the new distribution of risk-bearing.By allowing people to reduce their exposure to the risk of undertaking certain bus in ess ven tures, they may en courage en trepre neurial behavior that can have a ben efit to society.* Over the cen turies, various econo mic orga ni zati ons and con tractual arra ngeme nts have evolved to facilitate a more efficient allocation of risk-bearing by expanding the scope of diversification and the types of risk that are shifted.* Among the factors limit ing the efficie nt allocati on of risks are tra nsacti ons costs and problems of adverse selecti on and moral hazard.Solutions to Problems at End of ChapterOn the Nature of Risk and Risk Management1. Suppose that you and a friend have decided to go to a movie together next Saturday. You will select any movie for which tickets are available when you get to the theater. Is this a risky situation for you? Explain. Now suppose that your friend has already purchased a ticket for a movie that is going to be released this Saturday. Why is this a risky situation? How would you deal with the risk?SOLUTION:No, the uncertainty doesn ' t represienncteriysokusdo not care which movie you see. However, if your friend has a ticket already, and if you wait till Saturday to buy yours, the show may be sold out. To eliminate the risk that you may not be able to sit with your friend and see the same movie, you might buy your ticket in advance.2. Suppose you are aware of the following investment opportunity: You could open a coffee shop around the corner from your home for $25,000. If business is strong, you could net $15,000 in after-tax cash flows each year over the next 5 years.a. If you knew for certain the business would be a success, would this be a risky investment?b. Now assume this is a risky venture and that there is a 50% chance it is a success and a 50% chance you gobankrupt within 2 years. You decide to go ahead and invest. If the business subsequently goes bankrupt, did you make the wrong decision based on the information you had at the time? Why or why not?SOLUTION:a. No, this investment would not be risky.b. No, you did not make a “ wrong ” decision. When you made your decision, you did not know for certain that thecompany would go bankrupt. You decided to invest for many reasons, including the possibility of making a lot of money.Given your tolerance for risk and the fact that you based our decision on the information available at the time, your decision was not wrong and may have been optimal at the time.3. Suppose you are a pension fund manager and you know today that you need to make a $100,000 payment in 3 months.a. What would be a risk-free investment for you?b. If you had to make that payment in 20 years instead, what would be a risk free investment?c. What do you conclude from your answers to Parts a and b of this question?SOLUTION:a. A risk-free investment for you would be a Treasury Bill (default risk free) which matures in exactly 3 months.b. A risk-free investment would be a zero coupon U.S. Treasury security maturing in 20 years and which would have thesame single payment of $100,000.c. Because risk is dependent upon circumstances, what is risk-free for one individual may be risky for another too. There canbe any number of risk-free investments depending upon circumstances. Your investment time horizon is critical tochoosing the best risk-free investment (so payments in can exactly match payments out so that you are left with no risk).4. Is it riskier to make a loan denominated in dollars or in yen?SOLUTION:It depends on the context. For people whose income and expenses are denominated in dollars (perhaps because they live in the U.S), denominating a loan in yen would be riskier than denominating it in dollars. But for someone whose income and expenses are denominated in yen, denominating the loan in yen would be less risky than in dollars.5. Which risk management technique has been chosen in each of the following situations?« Installing a smoke detector in your home« Investing savings in T-bills rather than in stocks« Deciding not to purchase collision insurance on your car« Purchasing a life insurance policy for yourselfSOLUTION:« Loss preve nti on and con trol.・Risk avoida nee« Risk rete nti on・Risk tran sfer6. You are considering a choice between investing $1,000 in a conventional one-year T-Bill offering an interest rate of 8% and a one-year Index 丄inked Inflation Plus T-Bill offering 3% plus the rate of inflation.a. Which is the safer investment?b. Which offers the higher expected return?c. What is the real return on the Index 丄inked Bond?SOLUTION:a. The inflation-indexed T-Bill offers a fixed real rate of return of 3% over the life of the investment. The realreturn on the conventional T- Bill ' s real return depends upon the expected rate of inflation over the life of thein vestme nt. The safer in vestme nt is the In flati on Plus T-Bill.b. The real rate of return on the conventional T-Bill depends upon the expected rate of inflation over the life of thein vestme nt. You do not know which expected retur n is higher unl ess you know what in flati on is expected to be.c. The real retur n on the in dex-l in ked T-Bill is 3%.Hedging and Insurance7. Suppose you are interested in financing your new home purchase. You have your choice of a myriad financing options. You could enter into any one of the following agreements: 8% fixed rate for 7 years, 8.5% fixed rate for 15 years, 9% fixed for 30 years. In addition, you could finance with a 30-year variable rate that begins at 5% and increases and decreases with the prime rate, or you could finance with a 30year variable rate that begins at 6% with ceilings of 2% per year to a maximum of 12% and no minimum.a. Suppose you believe that interest rates are on the rise. If you want to completely eliminate your risk of risinginterest rates for the longest period of time, which option should you choose?b. Would you consider that hedging or insuring? Why?c. What does you r risk management decision “ cost ” you in terms of quoted interest rates during the firstyear?SOLUTION:a. You would choose the 30-year fixed rate at 9%.b. That would be a hedge because you have elim in ated both the upside (decli ning rates) or dow nside ( rising rates).c. This costs me at least 4% since I could get a variable rate loa n at 5%.8. Referring to the information in problem 7, answer the following:a. Suppose you believe interest rates are going to fall, which option should you choose?b. What risk do you face in that transaction?c. How might you insure against that risk? What does that cost you (in terms of quoted interest rates?). SOLUTION:a. You would want one of the variable rate options, in particular the variable loan tied to the prime rate, currently equal to5%.b. You face the risk of rising rates.c. You could in sure aga inst that risk by purchas ing the opti on to have a 12% ceil ing on the rate (2% in crease per year.This option cost you 1% (the difference between 6% and 5%).9. Suppose you are thinking of investing in real estate. How might you achieve a diversified real estate investment?SOLUTION:« You could own several differe nt build ings in the same gen eral area.« You could own several differe nt build ings in differe nt geographic areas.« You could sell some of your equity own ership to other owners to lower your own in dividual exposure to decli ning market values.10. Suppose the following represents the historical returns for Microsoft and Lotus Development Corporation:Historical ReturnsYear MSFT LOTS110%9%215%12%3-12%-7%420%18%57%5%a. What is the mean return for Microsoft? For Lotus?b. What is the standard deviation of returns for Microsoft? For Lotus?c. Suppose the returns for Microsoft and Lotus have normally distributed returns with means and standarddeviations calculated above. For each stock, determine the range of returns within one expected standard deviation of the mean and within two standard deviations of the mean.SOLUTION:a. Mea n return Microsoft: 8.0%; Lotus: 7.4%b. If you use the formula for the sta ndard deviati on based on a sample of size n:You find that the standard deviations are: MSFT: 10.94%; Lotus: 8.357%.However, if you use the formula for the population standard deviation:You find that the standard deviations are: MSFT 12.23% and LOTS 9.34%.c. Range of returns within 1 standard deviation Microsoft: -2.94% to +18.94% Range of returns within 1 standarddeviation Lotus: -0.957% to + 15.76% Range of returns within 2 standard deviations Microsoft: -13.88% to+29.88% Range of returns within 1 standard deviation Lotus: -9.31% to + 24.11%。
