美国CPI结构

美国经济指标详解-CPI
消费者物价指数(CPI)
定义以与居民⽣活有关的产品及劳务价格统计出来的物价变动指针。

公布时间每⽉第三个星期。

制作⽅式⽬前美国的消费者物价指数是以1982年⾄1984年的平均物价⽔准为基期，涵盖了房屋⽀出、⾷品、交通、医疗、成⾐、娱乐、其它等七⼤类，
364种项⽬的物价来决定各种⽀出的权数。

数据解读讨论通货膨胀时，最常提及的物价指数之⼀。

消费者物价指数上升太多，有通货膨胀的压⼒，此时中央银⾏可能藉由调⾼利率来加以控制，
对美元来说是利多。

不过，由于与⽣活相关的产品多为最终产品，
其价格只涨不跌，因此，消费者物价指数也未能完全反应价格变动的实情。

补课：CPI构成中国的CPI构成1 食品 34%2 娱乐教育文化用品及服务 14%3 居住 13%4 交通通讯 10%5 医疗保健个人用品 10%6 衣着 9%7 家庭设备及维修服务 6%8 烟酒及用品 4%从中国CPI构成权重体系中，食品占了34%。

在目前统计指标中，食品是所有八大类商品中权重最大的分类项。

而猪肉又是食品分类中最重要的子项目，约占CPI整体9%的权重。

猪肉价格对CPI影响过大，给公众感觉是“猪”操控CPI。

中国的CPI指数不是包括房产作为固定资产的价格的，而所谓“居住”仅仅是指房屋装修等附加消费。

无怪乎房子飞涨CPI水平还能维持在10%一下，按照书本上说的，这个叫“缓慢的通货膨胀”。

CPI的国际比较“通过对美国、欧盟国家、加拿大、日本CPI构成的比较分析，有以下特点。

1．当今世界各国CPI的构成类别大致相同，权重因各国经济发展情况和恩格尔系数不同而有所不同。

2． CPI构成中各类别权重的确定都是在抽样调查的基础上，依据居民消费支出的构成比例进行算术平均或几何平均方法得到的。

3．各国CPI构成中分歧较大的类别是“住房”或“居住”项。

美国CPI-U的“住房”项中包含虚拟租金的价格变动，即当居民没有自有住房时每月租房的等值租金支出水平高低。

除了美国，世界各国居住类商品和服务价格均不含自有住房的虚拟租金部分。

此外，有些国家将购置房屋的“抵押贷款利息”和“物业费”等计入“居住”类价格之中，比如加拿大。

4．食品、居住、交通类商品和服务价格是CPI构成中权重最大的三类价格，三者权数之和超过50%，所以稳定此三类商品和服务的价格将会有效地控制CPI，进而控制通货膨胀率;反之，此三类价格的上涨将直接导致CPI的上升。

”。

美国的cpi数据是多少美国通胀率是每年量化经济增长和活动的可靠指标。

2020年以来，美国的消费物价指数（CPI）一直显示出高企的局势。

从2020年到2021年2月，美国CPI总体上以全国每月的2.6％的比例上涨。

CPI是由美国劳工部发布的劳动力统计局（BLS）提侨的，它衡量由消费者购买的商品和服务的价格的变化，包括商品的食品，住房，服装，交通和其他购物费用，也包括财政产品和服务。

它包括失业保险，社会保障，养老金和住房抵押贷款等。

CPI不仅反应了价格变化，还反应了消费购买行为的变化。

除了指出物价变化，它也通过反映消费者支出模式等方面反映出经济的发展情况。

自2020年以来，作为经济萧条的伴随现象，美国的CPI一直处于较高的水平，但相对去年同期也有所回落。

例如，2020年7月，美国CPI比去年同期上涨2.2％；2020年8月时，美国CPI比去年同期上涨1.7％；2020年9月，美国CPI比去年同期上涨1.4％；2020年10月，美国CPI比去年同期上涨1.2％；2020年11月，美国CPI比去年同期上涨1.1％；2020年12月，美国CPI比去年同期上涨1.4％。

然而，2021年1月份的美国CPI增长有所上升，比去年同期上升了1.6％，这一点也说明了经济强劲的回升趋势，在2021年有望延续下去。

CPI的变化关系到经济的发展，因此美国政府一直严格控制CPI的变化。

美国联邦储备系统公布的数据表明：2020年2月，美国CPI比去年同期上涨2.3％；2020年3月，美国CPI比去年同期上涨到了2.4％，但在2020年4月，由于全球经济危机和疫情冲击，美国CPI跌至去年同期的负1.4％。

随后，由于多重刺激政策出台，从2020年5月以来，美国CPI略有回升，至2021年2月，CPI总体上以全国每月的2.6％的比例上涨。

通过对近几年美国CPI变化情况的对比来看，2020年疫情期间的美国CPI出现了两次大幅度变化，其中一次为2020年4月负1.4％跌幅，另一次则是2021年2月份的2.6％上涨。

美国消费者支出水平与支出结构研究消费,无论是满足人们的基本需求,还是对国民经济的整个拉动作用,在经济发展中都具有非常重要的地位,尤其是后危机时期,世界各国对本国市场和本国消费者需求水平的提高和消费结构的改善更加重视。

本文选取美国消费者支出水平与支出结构进行研究,主要是因为美国是世界经济的头号强国,对世界经济的发展和国际经济政治格局有着举足轻重的影响力。

而且美国是一个高度发达的消费经济国家,即使在发达国家中,其消费也属于较高水平。

另一方面,美国引领着世界技术创新和产品创新的潮流,而技术与产品创新又为美国带来新的商品和消费服务,美国因此引领着全球消费市场和潮流。

居民消费对美国经济增长有重大贡献,本文研究美国消费者支出,旨在研究美国居民的消费水平和消费结构,以及美国的消费者支出经济何以能够长期稳定的成为其经济增长的动力和源泉,探索支撑美国消费者高消费水平和较为稳定的消费结构的力量。

经济全球化使得全球的消费结构都在发生变化,观察美国消费者支出的变化与趋势,对把握世界整体消费以及中国消费的变化与趋势都非常有意义。

中美两国的经济发展基于不同的政治和社会经济制度,但经济发展的本质和经济及社会发展中存在的问题有相通之处,从根本上讲,都是围绕供给和需求来进行的。

美国的社会结构呈橄榄型,经济发展以及制度制定更关注中等收入阶层。

中国是发展中国家,有着与美国不同的社会制度和结构,但普通居民的需求是相通的,都是要首先满足物质生活,安全需求、精神需求等。

对于未来消费可能发生变化及其对一个国家经济增长的影响,我们应在研究美国消费者支出的基础上,通过国际比较,可以做到未雨绸缪,立足主动,因势引导,结合我国的供给侧改革,恰当的运用金融、税收等政策工具,推动我国消费经济更好的、更有效率的为经济增长和改善人民生活水平服务。

在对国内外相关研究的基础上,通过对相关的理论进行梳理,本文发现,在消费与经济增长的关系方面,无论是马克思主义学派,还是传统西方经济学,都把消费需求放在相当重要的位置。

目前，国内的CPI指数统一执行国家统计局规定的“八大类”体系，即指数的构成包括食品、烟酒及用品、衣着、家庭设备用品及服务、医疗保健及个人用品、交通和通信、娱乐教育文化用品及服务、居住等八大类，每个大类中又包含若干个具体项目，总共有300多项。

其构成权重分别是食品34%；娱乐教育文化用品及服务14%；居住13%；交通通讯10%；医疗保健个人用品10%；衣着9%；家庭设备及维修服务6%；烟酒及用品4%。

在此，我们再来看看美国的CPI指数的分类与权重构成。

美国的CPI是指包括200多种各式各样的商品和服务价格的平均变化值。

而这些商品与服务又分为8个主要类别及不同的权重。

如住宅（42.1%）、食品和饮料(15.4%)、交通运输(16.9%)、医疗(6.1%)、服装(4.0%)、娱乐(5.8%)、教育和交流(5.9%)、其他商品和服务(3.8%)。

影响中国CPI指数的三大原因粮食价格不会大跌根据国家统计局数字，CPI（消费价格指数）增长在2004年呈现了一个向上的半抛物线走势。

从元月份的2.4％，在2月份轻微回落0.3个百分点，然后一路上扬，在7月和8月达到5.3％的最高点。

由于投资的快速增长，从4月份中国政府开始了一轮宏观调控。

受时滞效应影响，CPI 数据并没有立即回落。

高盛亚洲证券首席经济学家梁红女士此前曾预计，到10月份，CPI 数据可能达到最高点。

与粮食产品密切相关的还有油料和肉制品。

1－8月份，食用油和油料价格上涨22％到26％之间，8月与上月相比，则互有涨跌，总体稳定。

肉制品1－8月上涨非常不均衡，猪肉价格上涨35％，牛肉和羊肉上涨只有9％和5％。

但受粮食成本上涨的推动，8月份猪肉价格比上月上涨3.9％，鸡蛋则飙升7.6％。

能源成为新的推动力“能源价格的上涨将为中国经济发展前景带来新的变数。

”亚洲开发银行驻中国首席代表克鲁斯·莫利先生认为。

2003年，中国对石油的需求量同比增长了9％，而2004年1－6月份，石油需求又劲增20.6％。

美国通货膨胀分析随着美国经济的持续增长，通货膨胀已成为一个备受关注的问题。

随着物价的上涨，通货膨胀对消费者的生活产生了视觉和实质性的影响。

本文将对美国通货膨胀现状进行分析，并探究其原因和影响。

一、美国通货膨胀情况美国通货膨胀率是指物价指数（CPI）的年度变化率。

CPI反映出商品和服务的平均价格变化，包括食品、住房、交通和通讯等各方面消费品。

尽管通货膨胀在过去几年中一直徘徊在2%以下，但在2021年初突破了3%。

4月份的通货膨胀率为4.2%，创下2008年以来的最高纪录。

自1990年以来，美国的平均通货膨胀率为2.2%。

二、通货膨胀的原因1.疫情后的需求增加随着美国疫苗接种进程加快，市民的需求逐渐回升。

近期出现了大量新冠解封的案例，带动了很多消费。

但由于COVID-19大流行对供应链的冲击，部分商品的库存不足，导致价格上涨，从而导致通货膨胀。

2.供应链问题美国供应链的一环出现问题已经持续了很长时间。

货物在各大港口排队，货物运输瓶颈严重，遇到短缺甚至断货等问题，价格就会上涨。

3. 全球物品价格上涨随着全球经济的复苏，商品和原材料价格不断上涨，也导致了美国的通货膨胀。

例如石油、铁矿石、铜和铝等商品的价格上涨。

三、通货膨胀对美国经济的影响1. 降低购买力通货膨胀导致物价上涨，购买力下降。

人们的消费预算不够，不能购买原先的商品，或选择购买同质化的低价商品，从而降低了自己的生活品质。

2. 飞涨利率解决通货膨胀不得不采取的措施之一是通过提高利率来降低消费，限制经济增长，但飞涨的利率会导致负担加重，相应地会推高财政开支。

3.拖累股市通货膨胀的严重程度可能会推高利率，使股票市场不再那么有吸引力。

四、总结虽然美国的通货膨胀率在近期出现了明显的上升，但美国联邦储备委员会和政府官员说明，这一上升是暂时的，并不表明美国经济失控。

对于通货膨胀的控制需通过一系列政策、对经济的调整和紧缩来实现。

此外，经济发展的持续增长和经济结构的优化都是控制通货膨胀的有效途径。

Transmission of material in this release is embargoed until USDL-13-0057 8:30 a.m. (EST) Wednesday, January 16, 2013Technical information: (202) 691-7000 • Reed.Steve@ • /cpiMedia Contact: (202) 691-5902 • PressOffice@C ONSUMER P RICE I NDEX –D ECEMBER 2012The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.The gasoline index declined again in December, but other indexes, notably food and shelter, increased, resulting in the seasonally adjusted all items index being unchanged. Gasoline was the only major energy index to decline; the indexes for natural gas and electricity both increased. Within the food category, five of the six major grocery store food groups increased as the food at home index rose for the third consecutive month.The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in December, the same increase as in November. Besides shelter, the indexes for airline fares, tobacco, and medical care also increased. The indexes for recreation, household furnishings and operations, and used cars and trucks all declined in December.The all items index increased 1.7 percent over the last 12 months, compared to a 1.8 percent figure in November. The index for all items less food and energy rose 1.9 percent over the last 12 months, the same figure as last month. The food index has risen 1.8 percent over the last 12 months, and the energy index has risen 0.5 percent.Year in ReviewThe CPI rose 1.7 percent in 2012 after a 3.0 percent increase in 2011. This was the third smallest December-December increase of the past ten years and compares to a 2.4 percent average annual increase over the span.The energy index increased 0.5 percent in 2012, a sharp deceleration from its 6.6 percent increase in 2011. The gasoline index rose 1.7 percent in 2012 after increasing 13.8 percent in 2010 and 9.9 percent in 2011. The household energy index declined in 2012, falling 1.1 percent after increasing 1.8 percent in 2011. The fuel oil index rose 3.6 percent in 2012, but the electricity index decreased 0.5 percent and the index for natural gas fell 2.9 percent, the fourth straight year it has declined.The index for food rose 1.8 percent in 2012, a deceleration from its 4.7 percent increase in 2011. The index for food at home rose 1.3 percent in 2012 compared to 6.0 percent in 2011. Five of the six major grocery store food group indexes rose in 2012, with increases ranging from 0.5 percent (dairy and related products) to 2.0 percent (other food at home). The nonalcoholic beverages group was the only index to decline, falling 0.2 percent. The index for food away from home rose 2.5 percent in 2012 after increasing 2.9 percent in 2011.The index for all items less food and energy decelerated slightly in 2012, rising 1.9 percent after a 2.2 percent increase in 2011. This matches the average annual increase of 1.9 percent over the past ten years. Several indexes decelerated in 2012. The apparel index, which rose 4.6 percent in 2011, increased 1.8 percent in 2012. The index for new vehicles increased 1.6 percent in 2012 after rising 3.2 percent in 2011, and the medical care index rose 3.2 percent in 2012 after a 3.5 percent increase the prior year. The index for airline fares rose 2.1 percent, the tobacco index increased 1.9 percent, and the recreation index rose 0.8 percent; all of these increases were smaller than in 2011. The index for household furnishings and operations was unchanged in 2012 after rising in 2011, and the index for used cars and trucks turned down in 2012, falling 2.0 percent after increasing 4.0 percent in 2011. In contrast, the shelter index accelerated in 2012, rising 2.2 percent after a 1.9 percent increase in 2011. The index for rent rose 2.7 percent and the index for owners’ equivalent rent increased 2.1 percent.Consumer Price Index Data for December 2012FoodThe food index rose 0.2 percent in December for the third month in a row. The index for food at home increased 0.2 percent after rising 0.3 percent in each of the two previous months. The index for meat, poultry, fish, and eggs was unchanged in December, while the remaining major grocery store food group indexes all increased. The fruits and vegetables index posted the largest increase, rising 0.6 percent; this was its seventh increase in the last nine months. The indexes for cereals and bakery products, dairy and related products, and nonalcoholic beverages, which all rose in November, each increased 0.2 percent in December. The index for other food at home increased 0.1 percent in December after rising 0.4 percent in November. The index for food away from home rose 0.1 percent in December, the same increase as in October and November.EnergyThe energy index declined 1.2 percent in December after declining 4.1 percent in November. Thegasoline index, which fell 7.4 percent in November, declined 2.3 percent. It has decreased 10.1 percentsince its recent peak in September. (Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices decreased 4.2 percent inDecember.) The index for fuel oil was unchanged in December, while other major energy componentsincreased. The natural gas index rose 1.3 percent in December, the same increase as in November. Theindex for electricity rose 0.2 percent, its fifth consecutive increase.All items less food and energyThe index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in December, the same increase as inNovember. The shelter index rose 0.1 percent in December after increasing 0.2 percent in November.The rent index rose 0.2 percent and the index for owners’ equiv alent rent increased 0.1 percent, while the lodging away from home index declined 0.9 percent. The index for airline fares continued to rise,increasing 1.2 percent in December. This was its fourth consecutive increase and it has risen 6.5 percentsince August. The index for medical care increased 0.1 percent as the medical care services index rosebut the index for medical care commodities declined. The tobacco index rose 0.5 percent in December,its first increase since September. In contrast to these increases, the recreation index declined inDecember, falling 0.2 percent. The index for household furnishings and operations also fell 0.2 percent,while the index for used cars and trucks declined 0.4 percent, its sixth consecutive decrease. The indexesfor apparel and personal care both declined 0.1 percent in December. The index for new vehicles, whichrose 0.2 percent in November, was unchanged in December.Not seasonally adjusted CPI measuresThe Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 1.7 percent over the last 12months to an index level of 229.601 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index declined 0.3 percent priorto seasonal adjustment.The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 1.7percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 225.889 (1982-84=100). For the month, the indexdecreased 0.3 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) increased 1.6 percent over thelast 12 months. For the month, the index decreased 0.2 percent on a not seasonally adjusted basis. Pleasenote that the indexes for the post-2010 period are subject to revision.The Consumer Price Index for January 2013 is scheduled to be released on Thursday, February21, 2013, at 8:30 a.m. (EST).Discontinuation of Department Store Inventory IndexesThe Bureau of Labor Statistics will discontinue publication of its Department Store Inventory indexes after the release of the December 2013 CPI in mid-January 2014, and these values will no longer be uploaded to the Labstat database. For further information please contact Sharon Gibson at 202-691-6968 or gibson.sharon@.Publication Changes for Average Price SeriesThe Bureau of Labor Statistics will discontinue publication of three average price series after the release of the June 2013 CPI in mid-July 2013. They are:-utility (piped) gas, 40 therms;-utility (piped) gas, 100 therms; and-electricity, 500 kilowatt hours.The Bureau will, however, continue to publish average prices for utility (piped) gas on a per therm basis, and will continue to publish electricity prices on a per kilowatt hour basis. As such, users will be able to convert these data to any consumption amount. CPI Detailed Report table P1. Average residential prices for utility (piped) gas, electricity, and fuel oil, U.S. city average and selected areas will no longer be published. Data for fuel oil #2, per gallon (3.785 liters) will continue to be available in the CPI Average Price Data public database.Facilities for Sensory ImpairedInformation from this release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: 202-691-5200, Federal Relay Services: 1-800-877-8339.Brief Explanation of the CPIThe Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change in prices over time of goods and services purchased by households. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes CPIs for two population groups: (1) the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which covers households of wage earners and clerical workers that comprise approximately 29 percent of the total population and (2) the CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and the Chained CPI for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U), which cover approximately 88 percent of the total population and include in addition to wage earners and clerical worker households, groups such as professional, managerial, and technical workers, the self-employed, short-term workers, the unemployed, and retirees and others not in the labor force.The CPIs are based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, and fuels, transportation fares, charges for doctors’ and dentists’ services, drugs, and other goods and services that people buy for day-to-day living. Prices are collected each month in 87 urban areas across the country from about 4,000 housing units and approximately 26,000 retail establishments-department stores, supermarkets, hospitals, filling stations, and other types of stores and service establishments. All taxes directly associated with the purchase and use of items are included in the index. Prices of fuels and a few other items are obtained every month in all 87 locations. Prices of most other commodities and services are collected every month in the three largest geographic areas and every other month in other areas. Prices of most goodsIn calculating the index, price changes for the various items in each location are averaged together with weights, which represent their importance in the spending of the appropriate population group. Local data are then combined to obtain a U.S. city average. For the CPI-U and CPI-W separate indexes are also published by size of city, by region of the country, for cross-classifications of regions and population-size classes, and for 27 local areas. Area indexes do not measure differences in the level of prices among cities; they only measure the average change in prices for each area since the base period. For the C-CPI-U data are issued only at the national level. It is important to note that the CPI-U and CPI-W are considered final when released, but the C-CPI-U is issued in preliminary form and subject to two annual revisions.The index measures price change from a designed reference date. For the CPI-U and the CPI-W the reference base is 1982-84 equals 100. The reference base for the C-CPI-U is December 1999 equals 100. An increase of 16.5 percent from the reference base, for example, is shown as 116.500. This change can also be expressed in dollars as follows: the price of a base period market basket of goods and services in the CPI has risen from $10 in 1982-84 to $11.65.For further details visit the CPI home page on the Internet at /cpi/ or contact our CPI Information and Analysis Section on (202) 691-7000.Note on Sampling Error in the Consumer Price IndexThe CPI is a statistical estimate that is subject to sampling error because it is based upon a sample of retail prices and not the complete universe of all prices. BLS calculates and publishes estimates of the1-month, 2-month, 6-month and 12-month percent change standard errors annually, for the CPI-U. These standard error estimates can be used to construct confidence intervals for hypothesis testing. For example, the estimated standard error of the 1 month percent change is 0.03 percent for the U.S. All Items Consumer Price Index. This means that if we repeatedly sample from the universe of all retail prices using the same methodology, and estimate a percentage change for each sample, then 95% of these estimates would be within 0.06 percent of the 1 month percentage change based on all retail prices. For example, for a 1-month change of 0.2 percent in the All Items CPI for All Urban Consumers, we are 95 percent confident that the actual percent change based on all retail prices would fall between 0.14 and 0.26 percent. For the latest data, including information on how to use the estimates of standard error, see “Variance Estimates for Price Changes in the Consumer Price Index, January-December 2011”. These data are available on the CPI home page (/cpi), or by using the following link /cpi/cpivar2011.pdfCalculating Index ChangesMovements of the indexes from one month to another are usually expressed as percent changes rather than changes in index points, because index point changes are affected by the level of the index in relation to its base period while percent changes are not. The example below illustrates the computation of index point and percent changes.Percent changes for 3-month and 6-month periods are expressed as annual rates and are computed according to the standard formula for compound growth rates. These data indicate what the percentIndex Point ChangeCPI 202.416Less previous index 201.800Equals index point change .616Percent ChangeIndex point difference .616Divided by the previous index 201.800Equals 0.003Results multiplied by one hundred 0.003x100Equals percent change 0.3A Note on Seasonally Adjusted and Unadjusted DataBecause price data are used for different purposes by different groups, the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes seasonally adjusted as well as unadjusted changes each month.For analyzing general price trends in the economy, seasonally adjusted changes are usually preferred since they eliminate the effect of changes that normally occur at the same time and in about the same magnitude every year--such as price movements resulting from changing climatic conditions, production cycles, model changeovers, holidays, and sales.The unadjusted data are of primary interest to consumers concerned about the prices they actually pay. Unadjusted data also are used extensively for escalation purposes. Many collective bargaining contract agreements and pension plans, for example, tie compensation changes to the Consumer Price Index before adjustment for seasonal variation.Seasonal factors used in computing the seasonally adjusted indexes are derived by the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal Adjustment Method. Seasonally adjusted indexes and seasonal factors are computed annually. Each year, the last 5 years of seasonally adjusted data are revised. Data from January 2007 through December 2011 were replaced in January 2012. Exceptions to the usual revision schedule were: the updated seasonal data at the end of 1977 replaced data from 1967 through 1977; and, in January 2002, dependently seasonally adjusted series were revised for January 1987-December 2001 as a result of a change in the aggregation weights for dependently adjusted series. For further information, please see “Aggregation of Dependently Adjusted Seasonally Adjusted Series,” in the October 2001 issue of the CPI Detailed Report.Effective with the publication of data from January 2006 through December 2010 in January 2011, the Video and audio series and the Information technology, hardware and services series were changed from independently adjusted to dependently adjusted. This resulted in an increase in the number of seasonal components used in deriving seasonal movement of the All items and 54 other lower level aggregations, from 73 for the publication of January 1998 through December 2005 data to 82 for the publication of seasonally adjusted data for January 2006 and later. Each year the seasonal status of every series isadjustment status from seasonally adjusted to not seasonally adjusted, not seasonally adjusted data will be used in the aggregation of the dependent series for the last 5 years, but the seasonally adjusted indexes before that period will not be changed. Note: 38 of the 82 components are not seasonally adjusted for 2012.Seasonally adjusted data, including the all items index levels, are subject to revision for up to five years after their original release. For this reason, BLS advises against the use of these data in escalation agreements.Effective with the calculation of the seasonal factors for 1990, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has used an enhanced seasonal adjustment procedure called Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment for some CPI series. Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment allows for better estimates of seasonally adjusted data. Extreme values and/or sharp movements which might distort the seasonal pattern are estimated and removed from the data prior to calculation of seasonal factors. Beginning with the calculation of seasonal factors for 1996, X-12-ARIMA software was used for Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment.For the seasonal factors introduced in January 2012, BLS adjusted 31 series using Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment, including selected food and beverage items, motor fuels, electricity and vehicles. For example, this procedure was used for the Motor fuel series to offset the effects of events such as damage to oil refineries from Hurricane Katrina.For a complete list of Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment series and explanations, please refer to the article “Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment”, located on our website at/cpi/cpisapage.htm.For additional information on seasonal adjustment in the CPI, please write to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Division of Consumer Prices and Price Indexes, Washington, DC 20212 or contact Christopher Graci by electronic mail at Graci.Christopher@ or by telephone at (202) 691-5826, or Carlyle Jackson by electronic mail at Jackson.Carlyle@ or by telephone at (202) 691-6984. If you have general questions about the CPI, please call our information staff at (202) 691-7000. Recalculated Seasonally Adjusted Indexes to be Available on February 19, 2013Each year with the release of the January CPI, seasonal adjustment factors are recalculated to reflect price movements from the just-completed calendar year. This routine annual recalculation may result in revisions to seasonally adjusted indexes for the previous 5 years. BLS will make available recalculated seasonally adjusted indexes, as well as recalculated seasonal adjustment factors, for the period January 2008 through December 2012, on Tuesday, February 19, 2013. This date is two working days before the scheduled release of the January 2013 CPI on Thursday, February 21, 2013.The revised indexes and seasonal factors will be available on the internet. The address is/cpi/cpisapage.htm. Look under Seasonal Adjustment in the CPI and select Revised Seasonally Adjusted Indexes and Factors, 2008-2012.For further information please contact Christopher Graci by electronic mail atGraci.Christopher@ or by telephone at (202) 691-5826, or Carlyle Jackson by electronic mail atDecember2012[1982-84=100,unless otherwise noted]Expenditure category Relativeimpor-tanceNov.2012Unadjusted indexesUnadjusted percentchangeSeasonally adjusted percentchangeDec.2011Nov.2012Dec.2012Dec.2011-Dec.2012Nov.2012-Dec.2012Sep.2012-Oct.2012Oct.2012-Nov.2012Nov.2012-Dec.2012All items............................................100.000225.672230.221229.601 1.7-0.30.1-0.30.0 Food.............................................14.243231.301234.896235.390 1.80.20.20.20.2 Food at home................................8.553229.982232.295232.901 1.30.30.30.30.2 Cereals and bakery products............ 1.226265.997267.817268.0570.80.10.40.30.2 Meats,poultry,fish,and eggs........... 1.950228.853232.303232.262 1.50.00.8-0.10.0 Dairy and related products1............0.900218.458218.921219.4430.50.20.80.80.2 Fruits and vegetables.................... 1.265283.550284.367288.516 1.8 1.50.60.20.6 Nonalcoholic beverages and beveragematerials.................................0.941168.520168.222168.204-0.20.0-0.30.50.2 Other food at home....................... 2.271200.566204.531204.626 2.00.0-0.10.40.1 Food away from home1.................... 5.690234.435240.038240.359 2.50.10.10.10.1 Energy...........................................9.759232.300238.946233.4730.5-2.3-0.2-4.1-1.2 Energy commodities........................ 6.013287.363303.627291.815 1.5-3.9-0.5-6.9-2.2 Fuel oil1...................................0.233369.085382.355382.532 3.60.0 1.1-0.20.0 Motor fuel.................................. 5.682282.501299.777287.408 1.7-4.1-0.6-7.3-2.3 Gasoline(all types).................... 5.490280.713298.131285.606 1.7-4.2-0.6-7.4-2.3 Energy services2............................ 3.746189.891187.359187.880-1.10.30.30.90.4 Electricity2................................. 2.842192.777191.837191.879-0.50.00.50.70.2 Utility(piped)gas service2..............0.904178.193171.243173.098-2.9 1.1-0.2 1.3 1.3 All items less food and energy...............75.998226.740231.263231.033 1.9-0.10.20.10.1 Commodities less food and energycommodities...............................19.668145.929147.487146.3870.3-0.7-0.1-0.1-0.2 Apparel..................................... 3.665123.470129.573125.656 1.8-3.00.7-0.6-0.1 New vehicles.............................. 3.171142.953144.762145.181 1.60.3-0.10.20.0 Used cars and trucks..................... 1.847148.140145.862145.234-2.0-0.4-0.9-0.5-0.4 Medical care commodities1............. 1.718327.254334.285332.684 1.7-0.50.0-0.4-0.5 Alcoholic beverages......................0.945227.335231.178231.572 1.90.2-0.10.20.4 Tobacco and smoking products1.......0.799847.063858.504862.945 1.90.5-0.10.00.5 Services less energy services.............56.330275.643282.044282.400 2.50.10.30.20.2 Shelter......................................31.559253.716258.999259.298 2.20.10.30.20.1 Rent of primary residence2.......... 6.509257.189263.365264.098 2.70.30.40.20.2 Owners’equivalent rent ofresidences2,3......................23.942261.982267.099267.480 2.10.10.20.20.1 Medical care services.................... 5.426430.005445.278445.955 3.70.20.00.30.3 Physicians’services2................. 1.613342.966350.277349.910 2.0-0.10.00.10.0 Hospital services2,4.................. 1.547246.377257.537258.486 4.90.40.10.50.9 Transportation services.................. 5.812269.858276.008276.982 2.60.40.70.20.5 Motor vehicle maintenance andrepair1................................ 1.147255.644258.943258.845 1.30.00.20.10.0 Motor vehicle insurance............... 2.479396.193412.890414.773 4.70.50.90.10.5 Airline fare...............................0.768299.315305.354305.733 2.10.1 2.4 1.4 1.21Not seasonally adjusted.2This index series was calculated using a Laspeyres estimator.All other item stratum index series were calculated using a geometric means estimator. 3Indexes on a December1982=100base.4Indexes on a December1996=100base.NOTE:Index applies to a month as a whole,not to any specific date.category,December2012[1982-84=100,unless otherwise noted]Expenditure categoryRelativeimportanceNov.2012Unadjusted percentchangeSeasonally adjusted percent change Dec.2011-Dec.2012Nov.2012-Dec.2012Sep.2012-Oct.2012Oct.2012-Nov.2012Nov.2012-Dec.2012All items..................................................................100.000 1.7-0.30.1-0.30.0 Food....................................................................14.243 1.80.20.20.20.2 Food at home......................................................8.553 1.30.30.30.30.2 Cereals and bakery products.................................. 1.2260.80.10.40.30.2 Cereals and cereal products................................0.469-0.70.00.60.50.0 Flour and preparedflour mixes..........................0.051 2.3 1.60.9-0.5 1.9 Breakfast cereal1..........................................0.290-0.8-0.70.9 1.2-0.7 Rice,pasta,cornmeal1...................................0.128-1.50.8-1.5 1.30.8 Rice1,2,3..............................................0.00.1-0.6 1.70.1 Bakery products............................................0.757 1.70.20.40.00.4 Bread2...................................................0.222 1.50.80.4-0.9 1.0White bread1,3...................................... 2.3 1.2 1.8-0.7 1.2Bread other than white1,3.........................-0.20.7 1.1-1.30.7 Fresh biscuits,rolls,muffins1,2......................0.113 1.30.9-1.00.40.8 Cakes,cupcakes,and cookies........................0.186 1.3-0.8 1.3-0.4-0.6Cookies1,3........................................... 1.8-1.20.00.9-1.4Fresh cakes and cupcakes1,3.................... 1.5-0.5 2.6-0.5-0.5 Other bakery products..................................0.236 2.30.00.30.70.3Fresh sweetrolls,coffeecakes,doughnuts1,3... 5.40.8 1.20.20.8Crackers,bread,and cracker products3.......... 1.40.70.5-0.1 1.2Frozen and refrigerated bakery products,pies,tarts,turnovers3...................................0.3-2.1-1.1 2.4-2.7 Meats,poultry,fish,and eggs................................. 1.950 1.50.00.8-0.10.0 Meats,poultry,andfish...................................... 1.838 1.5-0.10.70.10.2 Meats........................................................ 1.1890.8-0.20.60.00.2 Beef and veal1..........................................0.560 4.60.30.50.10.3Uncooked ground beef1............................0.220 5.6-0.10.10.2-0.1Uncooked beef roasts1,2..........................0.082 3.2-0.2 2.40.4-0.2Uncooked beef steaks1,2..........................0.207 4.10.60.1-0.20.6Uncooked other beef and veal1,2................0.052 4.2 2.1 1.20.0 2.1 Pork.......................................................0.365-3.3-1.5 1.0-0.1-0.1Bacon,breakfast sausage,and related products2 ............................................................................0.138-2.4-0.7-0.6-0.20.1 Bacon and related products3....................-1.80.0-0.8-0.1 1.1Breakfast sausage and related products1,2,3 ............................................................................-4.1-2.0-1.0-2.1-2.0 Ham....................................................0.078-2.3-2.4-1.0-0.50.1Ham,excluding canned3.........................-2.8-2.6-1.1-0.80.3Pork chops............................................0.061-3.7-2.1 2.3 1.0-1.9Other pork including roasts and picnics2.........0.088-5.4-1.4 4.60.40.3 Other meats..............................................0.263-1.20.4-0.10.10.5Frankfurters3.........................................-1.20.9-2.00.70.7Lunchmeats1,2,3..................................-0.50.60.80.20.6Lamb and organ meats1,3........................-7.8-2.0 5.0-1.2-2.0Lamb and mutton1,2,3............................-16.5-1.8 4.3-3.3-1.8 Poultry....................................................0.346 5.70.7 1.50.20.7Chicken2..............................................0.272 6.00.6 1.70.40.8Fresh whole chicken1,3......................... 3.6-0.6 2.0 2.1-0.6Fresh and frozen chicken parts1,3............7.1 1.6 1.90.1 1.6Other poultry including turkey2.....................0.074 4.6 1.10.30.90.1 Fish and seafood1......................................0.304-0.1-0.50.00.2-0.4Freshfish and seafood1,2.........................0.155-1.5-1.0-0.3-0.5-1.0Processedfish and seafood2......................0.149 1.40.00.00.6-0.1Shelf stablefish and seafood1,3............... 6.9 1.5-0.1 1.1 1.5。

美国经济指标消费者物价指数 :消费者物价指数（Consumer Price Index），英文缩写为CPI，是反映与居民生活有关的产品及劳务价格统计出来的物价变动指标，通常作为观察通货膨胀水平的重要指针。

消费者物价指数上升太多，有通货膨胀的压力，此时中央银行可能会通过调高利率来加以控制，对一国货币来说是利多。

不过，如果消费者物价指数升幅过大，表明通胀已经成为经济不稳定的因素的时候，央行会有紧缩货币政策和财政政策的风险，从而造成经济前景不明朗，因此该指数过高的升幅并不被市场欢迎。

(CPI比预期好，则表示美元坚挺，金价将会受到打压、下降)。

来源：劳工部 (Labor Department)统计频率：每月发布时间：美东部时间8：30AM，通常在每月第三个星期重要性：高、四星级，通常会影响金融市场走势，而且其时效性及通胀意涵也广泛受到市场追踪。

GDP :即国内生产总值，英文名称Gross Domestic Product，通常缩写为GDP。

该指标是宏观经济中最受关注的经济统计数字，因为它被认为是衡量国民经济发展情况最重要的一个指标。

GDP增长速度越快，表明该国经济发展越快，增速越慢，该国经济发展越慢，若GDP陷入负增长，则该国毫无疑问的陷入经济衰退。

西方国家GDP的公布通常分为每月公布和每季公布，其中又以每季公布的GDP数据最为重要，投资者应考察该季度GDP与前一季度及去年同期数据相比的结果，增速提高，或高于预期，均可视为利好。

（GDP比预期的要好，表示美国经济较好，美元走势较好，美元指数上升，金价受到打压。

）来源：商务部经济分析局（ Bureau of Economic Analysis ， US Department of Commerce ）统计频率：每季与每年，而且每次数据会修正两次发布时间：美东部时间 8:30 AM ，逢 1 、 4 、 7 及 10 月底时，所发布的资料为前一季度的先期报告（ advance report ），次月底修正重要性：非常高、五星级，尤其在与市场的期待值相提并论时，实际发布的经济成长率或衰退率经常会左右金融市场的走势。

美国主要经济数据详解和公布时间美国是世界经济中最重要的组成部分，其经济的好坏将对全球经济的稳定和发展产生巨大的影响，为此研究分析美国经济指标是我们了解世界经济形势一个有效手段，也是黄金价格短期波动的最主要影响因素。

美国公布的经济指标主要包括了以下几大部分内容：国民收入和生产、工业生产和订单、固定资本投资与建筑、就业与失业、国内贸易和商品库存、综合商品价格。

以下我们将就其中一些重要指标进行简要分析。

1、国内生产总值一国的国内生产总值，是该国各个经济部门在一定时期(一年或者一季)内所生产的没有扣除资本消费(Capital consumption)的全部商品和劳务总值。

所谓的资本消费指的是固定资本折旧。

也即是指不论谁在该国拥有生产资产，其产出均应计入该国的国内生产总值。

例如：外国公司在美国设立子公司，即使将营利汇回其位于其它国家的母公司，其营利仍是美国GDP的一部份。

GDP是代表一个国家境内的全部经济活动，反应经济增长的基本情况，用以分析经济发展目前是处于何种状态。

GDP增速加快表明经济处于扩张阶段，对生产资料的消费需求会增加。

实质GDP是每季数据，第一季的先期报告(advance)公布于四月底，其余各季分别公布于七月、十月与隔年的一月。

对于任何一季的报告，第一次修正报告称为“初步”(preliminary)，第二次修正报告称为“修正后”(revised)或“最终”(final)。

2、工业生产指数工业生产指数(Industrial production index)是衡量制造业、矿业与公共事业的实质产出重要的经济指标，工作生产指数是反应一个国家经济周期变化的主要标志。

工业生产指数由美国联邦准备银行(Federal Reserve Board)搜集资料,其引用数据不是确实生产数据,绝大部分是估计数据(因资料搜集不易)。

样本为250家个别企业,代表27种不同的工业,以1987年为基期。

内容有三种不同类别(1)所有工业:(2)市场分类：包括最终产品、中产品和原料市场;(3)工业类别：包括制造业(耐用品与非耐用品)、矿业及公用事业。

美国通胀率变化情况及对我国的影响2021年以来，美国通胀压力加大，呈持续上升态势。

2021年6月，美国CPI同比上涨5.4%，续创2008年8月以来新高；PPI同比上涨7.3%，创下历史最高纪录。

美国通胀正扩散到更多经济领域，若持续下去将威胁全球经济复苏；美国通胀持续高位，促使美联储缩表和加息预期增强；美国高通胀或加大中国输入性通胀压力。

一、基本情况（一）6月美国CPI续创新高。

美国CPI从2020年5月开始呈上升态势，2021年加速上升。

2021年6月，CPI同比上涨5.4%，续创2008年8月以来新高；核心CPI同比上涨4.5%，创1991年11月以来新高。

分结构看，6月商品价格上涨8.9%，为1981年7月以来新高，对CPI贡献超六成。

其中，耐用品（汽车、家居及家用设备、交通工具等）价格上涨14.6%，创1957年以来新高。

6月服务价格上涨3.2%，为2018年10月以来新高。

（二）美国PPI连续6个月创新高。

美国PPI从2020年4月（-1.5%）触底反弹，持续攀升。

2021年6月，PPI 同比上涨7.3%，创下历史最高纪录，去年12月PPI同比增速仅为1.8%。

其中，6月美国二手车和卡车价格指数环比大涨10.5%，创下有史以来最大的月度涨幅，是美国PPI上涨的主要推动因素。

图1：2019年以来美国CPI、PPI同比增速变化情况数据来源：美国劳工统计局二、相关影响（一）美国通胀正扩散到更多经济领域，若持续下去将威胁全球经济复苏。

美国通胀压力比预期严重，并将持续较长时间，通胀压力正扩散到更多经济领域。

美国CPI和PPI 双双走高，表明实际通胀率正推升市场通胀预期，经济运行与政策脱节持续的时间越长，市场中的投机行为就会越多，风险也就越大。

6月美国通胀随经济复苏再次飙升，通胀严重性不容小觑。

如果这波通胀持续下去，可能会威胁全球经济复苏。

（二）美国通胀持续高位，促使美联储缩表和加息预期增强。

美国通货膨胀率一直在上升，引发人们对价格上涨过快的担忧，这可能会促使美联储比预期更早地提高利率或撤回支持疫情应对的政策。