战略分析工具(ppt 57页)(英文)

最全麦肯锡战略分析工具BU Strategic Plan Template Book STRATEGYPLANNING INSTRUCTIONS TABLE OF CONTENTS BU STRATEGIC PLAN DEVELOPMENT IEXECUTIVE SUMMARY IIA INDUSTRY DYNAMICS AND IMPLICATIONS – SUMMARY IIAINDUSTRY DYNAMICS AND IMPLICATIONS – BACK-UP 1 IIA INDUSTRY DYNAMICS-UP 2 IIA INDUSTRY DYNAMICS AND IMPLICATIONS – AND IMPLICATIONS –BACKBACK-UP 3 IIA INDUSTRY DYNAMICS AND IMPLICATIONS – BACK-UP 4 IIB COMPETITIVE ASSESSMENT – SUMMARY IIB COMPETITIVE ASSESSMENT –BACK-UP1 IIB COMPETITIVE ASSESSMENT – BACK-UP2 IIC INTERNAL ASSESSMENT –BACK-UP 1 IIC INTERNAL ASSESSMENT SUMMARY IIC INTERNAL ASSESSMENT –– BACK-UP 2 IIC INTERNAL ASSESSMENT – BACK-UP 3 IIIA STRATEGY ARTICULATION – SUMMARY IIIA STRATEGY ARTICULATION – BACK-UP 1 IIIA STRATEGY ARTICULATION – BACK-UP 2 IIIA STRATEGY ARTICULATION –BACK-UP3 IIIA STRATEGY ARTICULATION – BACK-UP4 IIIB STRATEGICINITIATIVES – SUMMARY IIIB STRATEGIC INITIATIVES – BACK-UP 1 IIIB STRATEGIC INITIATIVES – BACK-UP 2 IIIB STRATEGIC INITIATIVES – BACK-UP 3 IIIBSTRATEGIC INITIATIVES – BACK-UP 4 IIIC FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS –SUMMARYIIIC FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS – BACK-UP 1 IIIC FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS –BACK-UP 2 IIIC FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS – BACK-UP 3 IIIC FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS – BACK-UP 4 IIID RISKSCONTINGENCIES STRATEGIC ALTERNATIVES– SUMMARY IIID RISKSCONTINGENCIES STRATEGIC ALTERNATIVES –BACK-UP 1 IIID RISKSCONTINGENCIES STRATEGIC ALTERNATIVES – BACK-UP2 IIID RISKSCONTINGENCIES STRATEGIC ALTERNATIVES – BACK-UP3 SEGMENTANALYSIS STRUCTURE-CONDUCT-PERFORMANCE SCP MODEL SWOT ANALYSISCAPABILITY PLATFORM ASSESSMENT OF SOURCES OFCOMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE 12 CAPABILITY PLATFORM ASSESSMENT OF SOURCES OF COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE 22 COMPETITOR CAPABILITY COMPARISON BENCHMARK PERFORMANCE AGAINST RELEVANT INDUSTRY KPIs SEGMENT ANALYSIS TREND ANALYSIS – RETURN ON CAPITAL EMPLOYED ROCE TREND ANALYSIS – CASH INTANGIBLE ASSET CHECKLIST WHERE TO COMPETE VALUE PROPOSITION BUSINESS MODEL STRATEGIC INITIATIVES SOURCES OF VALUE STRATEGIC INITIATIVES VALUE QUANTIFICATION STRATEGIC INITIATIVES RESOURCING REQUIREMENTS DEFINITION OF RISKS C1 What are the key assumptions Profit and loss eg revenues costs margin Balance sheet Corporate center directives Corporate center assumptions BASE CASE Business unit assumptions Revenues Market size Market share Price Costs Input costs Production costs Other costs eg SGA Margins Gross margin Operatingmargin Capital Planned investments divestments Changes in workingcapital 2002 KEY FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS 2003 2004 Growth rate Corporate center assumptions 2002 20032004 Key economic indicators GDP growth Consumer price indexExchange rate PhP USD 91-day T-bill rate Corporate tax rateInstructionsThese are the minimum required assumptions Feel free to add other assumptions relevant to your BU C2 What is your projected net income in the next few years Income statement forecast BASE CASE Historical Sales Cost of goods sold Gross profit Operating expenses Operating profit Other expenses Taxes Net profit 1999 FORECASTED INCOME STATEMENT 2000 In PhP million Forecast 2001 2002 2003 2004 CAGR 1999-2004 Growth analysis SalesGross profit Operating profit Net profit Margin analysis Gross margin Operating margin Net margin Key assumptions not listed earlier should be detailed at the bottom of the chart The impact of planned initiatives on the revenues and costs should be established clearly with additional attachments if required Best estimates on possible actual results InstructionsThese are the minimum required income statement accounts and analyses Feel free to add other accounts and analyses relevant to your BU C3What is your expected cash generation ability over the medium term Cash flow forecast InstructionsThese are the minimum required cash flow statement accounts Feelfree to add other accounts relevant to your BU BASE CASE Operatingprofit Depreciation and amortization Other non-cash operating expenses Net operating cash flow Increasedecrease in working capital Other operating cash flow Total operating cash flow FORECASTED CASH FLOW STATEMENT Historical 1999 2000 Forecast 2001 2002 2003 2004 CAGR 1999-2004 Capital expenditure Other investing cash flow items Total investing cash flow Increasedecrease in debt Dividends Other financing cash flow Total financing cash flow In PhP million Key assumptions not listed earlier should be detailed at the bottom of the chart The impact of planned initiatives on the fixed and working capital investments should beestablished clearly with additional attachments if required Best estimates on possible actual results C4 What is your expected capital productivity Balance sheet forecast ROCE computation ROCE Operating income x 1- tax rate All interest bearing debtshort and long minority interest stockholders equityInstructionsThese are the minimum required balance sheet accounts and analyses Feel free to add other accounts and analyses relevant to your BU BASE CASE Cash Accounts receivables Inventories Other current assets Total current assets Net fixed assets Other assets Total assets FORECASTED BALANCE SHEET Historical 1999 2000 Forecast 2001 2002 2003 2004 CAGR1999-2004 Accounts payable Other current liabilities Total current liabilities Shortans Long-term loans Other liabilities Total -term lo liabilities Minority interest Total stockholders equity In PhPmillion Capital employed ROCE Total liab stockholders equity Ratio analysis Working capital turnover Debt-equity ratio Best estimates on possible actual results D What strategic alternatives have you considered D1What are the associated risks to your chosen strategy D2Re-examining industry opportunities and industrycompetitive threats what alternatives exist to your chosen strategy InstructionsThe answer to thisoverarching questionrequires a recapitulationof the sections mainfindings D3 Beyond the 3-year time frame what breakthrough strategic options may be possible InstructionsThese subsectionscontain a 1-2 sentencesummary of the relevantfindings D1 What are the associated risks to your chosen strategy Identification of significant potential risks and plans to mitigate Sensitivityscenario financial analysis Potential risks Business risk Regulatory risk Technology risk Integrity risk Macroeconomic risk Impact Likelihood Contingency Other D2 Re-examining industry opportunities andindustrycompetitive threats what alternatives exist to your chosen strategy Where to compete Value proposition Business model Alignment with external realities Where to compete Alternative value proposition Alternative business model Alignment with external realities InstructionsBased on a review of the section on Environmental and Internal Assessment Strategy Articulation and the frameworks used Exhibit 2-4 13-15 determine other potential strategic alternatives D3 Beyond the 3-year time frame what breakthrough strategic options may be possible Out-of-the-box ideasInstructionsThink radical Think out-of-the-box IV EXHIBITS Instructions Please include all relevant supporting documentation in this section Exhibit 1 ILLUSTRATIVE Industry boundaries Segments Industry segments Relatively distinct sub-groupings within the industry Market is relatively similar within the segment but different across segments Different industry dynamics may vary in importance in different segments Producers Industry S Technology breakthroughs Changes in government policyregulations Domestic International Economics of demand Availability of substitutes Differentiability of products Rate of growth Volatilitycyclicality Economics of supply Concentration of producers Import competition Diversity of producers Fixedvariable coststructureCapacity utilization Entryexit barriers Industry chain economics Bargaining power of input suppliers Bargaining power of customers Marketing Pricing Volume Advertisingpromotion New productsRDDistribution Capacity change Expansioncontraction Entryexit Acquisitionmerger divestiture Vertical integration Forwardbackward integration Vertical joint ventures Long-term contracts Internal efficiency Cost control Logistics Process RD Organization effectiveness Finance Profitability Value creation Technological progress Employment objectives External shocks Feedback tructure C onduct P erformance Exhibit 2 Exhibit 3 1 Determinants of supplier power Differentiation of inputs Switching costs of suppliers and firms in the industry Presence of substitute inputs Supplier concentration Importance of volume to supplier Cost relative to total purchases in the industry Impact of inputs on cost or differentiation Threat of forward integration relative tothreat of backward integration by firms in the industry 2Determinants of barriers to entry Economies of scale Proprietary product differences Brand identity Switching costs Capital requirements Access to distribution Absolute cost advantages Proprietary learning curve Access to necessary inputs Proprietary low-cost product design Government policy Expected retaliation 5 Rivalry determinantsIndustry growth Fixed or storage costvalue added Intermittentovercapacity Product differences Brand identity Switching costsConcentration and balance Informational complexity Diversity of competitors Corporate stakes Exit barriers 3 Determinants of buying power Bargaining leverage Buyer concentration vs firm concentration Buyer volume Buyer switching costs relative to firm switching costs Buyerinformation Ability to backward integrate Substitute productsPull-through 4 Determinants ofsubstitution threat Relative price performance of substitutes Switchingcosts Buyer propensity to substitute 2 New entrants 3 Buyers 4Substitutes Intensity of rivalry 1 Suppliers Price sensitivity Pricetotal purchases Product differences Brand Identity Impact on qualityperception Buyer profits Decision makers incentives 5 Industry competitors "FORCES AT WORK" FRAMEWORK OpportunitiesThreats How are and supply expected to evolve How do you expect the industry chain demandeconomics to evolve What are the potential major industry discontinuitiesWhat competitor actions do you expect YOUR BU Exhibit 4 CONVERT OPPORTUNITIES BUILD ON STRENGTHS NEUTRALIZE THREATS ADDRESS WEAK-NESSES Strengths Weaknesses What are your BUs assetscompetencies that solidify your competitive position What are your BUs assetscompetencies that weaken your competitive position Can be used as a thought starter forcompetitive analysis and internal assessment Surfaces potential opportunitiesthreats arising from factors external to the BU Physical asset Location"space"Distributionsales network Brandreputation Patent Relationship with "license" allocator BHPs low-cost mines Telecommmedia company with rightsradio spectrum Avons representatives Coca-Cola Pharmaceutical company with a "wonder drug "Favored nation" status with a key minister in liberalizing economy Innovation Cross-functional coordination Market positioning Costefficiency management Talent development 3M with new products McDonalds with QSCV JJ with branded consumer health products Emerson Electrics Best Cost Producer program PG brand management program Privileged assets Distinctive competencies Necessary capabilities in order to succeed in the industry Example Exhibit 5 ILLUSTRATIVE Step 1 Ensure that these are the capabilities required to succeed in the industry Use this list as a thought starter add anddelete as you see appropriate BU Overall Segments A B C Step 2 Assess your overall position relative to the capabilities required to succeedin the industry Also determine if these capabilities are relevant to the segments you serve Physical asset Location"space"Distributionsales network Brandreputation Patent Relationship with "license" allocator Innovation Cross-functional coordination Market positioning Costefficiency management Talent development Privileged assets Distinctive competencies Necessary capabilities in order tosucceed in the industry Exhibit 6 Extremely relevant Somewhat relevant Irrelevant BU Overall Competitors A B C Step 3 Compare the strengths and weaknesses of your competitive position vs the necessary skills Physical asset Location"space"Distributionsales network Brandreputation Patent Relationship with "license" allocator Innovation Cross-functional coordination Market positioning Costefficiency management Talent development Privileged assets Distinctive competencies Necessary capabilities in order to succeed in the industry Exhibit 7 ILLUSTRATIVE Exhibit 8ILLUSTRATIVE KPIs examples Financial indicators Margin Net income ROCEOperating indicators Advertising effectiveness Utilization rate Strategic indicators Market share Percent of revenue from new products Working capital trend External indicators Market prices of raw materials BU Competitor A Competitor B Competitor C Revenue Gross profit Operating profit Assets employed People employed Operatingprofit margin Gross profitmargin ROCE Step 1 Identify the relevant segments Step 2 Provide a segment analysis based on the following minimum financial metrics revenue gross profit and margin operating profit and margin Step 3 Tothe extent assets and people can be disaggregated by segment deployment of assets against returns can be analyzed PhP of total Segment 1 PhP of total Segment 2 PhP of total Segment 3 PhP of totalSegment 4 PhP of total Total Exhibit 9Segment 1 Segment 2 Segment 3 Segment 4 Total NOT EXHAUSTIVE The ROCE tree can be disaggregated to show the other relevant KPIs of a BU ROCE Percent Operating income x 1 - tax rate PhP million Capital employed PhP million ? Revenue PhP million Operating margin Percent x 1 - tax ratePercent x Market share Percent Industry sales PhP million x Exhibit 10 NOT EXHAUSTIVE The cash flow tree can be disaggregated to show the other relevant KPIs of a BU Exhibit 11 Cash flow generated PhP million Operating cash flow PhP million Investing cash flow PhP million Net income PhP million Non-cash expenses PhP million Change in working capital PhP million Financing cash flow PhP million Exhibit 12Intangible assets Ways to extract near-term value Talent Highly motivated and competent workforce leveraging specific skill sets to Generate growth Improveincrease company intangibles Intellectual property Patents generating licensing fees Understanding of customer behavior Risk management Software ILLUSTRATIVE Network Interconnected webs of parties Non-exclusive Additional member lowers costs increases benefits Brandimage Inherent image or brand built upon excellent service and product offerings Lower search costs forcustomers Exhibit 13 Customers Channels Productsmarkets Target customers and segments Which customers are you Geographictrying to target or attract Which are you willing to serve but will not spend resources to attract Which would you prefer not to serve Howdoes the entity reach its target customers Which distribution channels will you use What customer segments can they reach Geographical scope of business activities Geographic limits to the business Local regional multi-local national international or global player If local which localities Quality and breadth of the product line Breadth of the product line Quality of the product line Product bundles or a series of unrelated products A companys specific promise to its target customers of the benefits it will provide at an explicit price It answer the following questions Who is your target customer What are the explicit benefits you provide to your customer What perceived value do you provide to the customer better than competition How much value do your customers attach to the benefits you provide Exhibit 14 Exhibit 15 Understand value desires Select target Chose the value Value proposition Design product process Procure manu- facture Distri- bute Provide the value Service PriceDefine benefitsprice Sales message Communicate the value Business model Integrated set of actions to provide and communicate the value proposition to customers Segmentation Value proposition Adver- tising Promo- tionalPR Value delivery system VDS Each BU must address these 2 issues to define their business model Illustration of how the value proposition will be provided and communicated Identification of existing strengths that can be leveraged and required capabilities that need tobe built to be distinctive in chosen value delivery system 1 2Categories of initiatives 1 Capture greater market share Volume increase EBIT impact via Price increase Cost reduction Other Invest-ment Capital employed impact via Divest-ment Capitalefficiency Other ü 2 Cost reduction eg effective channel management3Obtain higher prices 4 Create new market demand 5 Form strategic alliances partnerships ü ü ü ü ü ü ü ü ü ü ü Eg improvedworking capital employment increased asset utilization changes to assetownership Specific actionable initiatives Exhibit 16 ILLUSTRATIVE Exhibit 17 ILLUSTRATIVE Estimate of totalongoing operating income andcapital employed impact fromsuccessful implementation ofstrategic initiatives Operating income ongoing impact 2001-2004 PhP millions Capital employed ongoing impact 2001-2004 PhP billions Present operating income Volume increase Price increase Cost reduction benefit Additional costs Total ongoing operating income Present capital employed Improved capital efficiency Divestments Investments capexacquisitionsTotal ongoing capital employed one-time operating income impact one-time costs ––– Exhibit 18 ILLUSTRATIVE Categories of initiatives Specific actionable initiatives Peopleskills Resourcerequirements Funding Ex-Com involvement 1 Capture greater market share 2 Cost reduction 3 Achieve higher prices4 Create new market demand5 Form strategicalliancespartnerships Exhibit 19 Definition Risk of loss due to changes in industry and competitive environment as well as shifts in customer preferences Business risk Risk due to changes in regulatory environment eg deregulation Regulatory risk Risk due to major changes in technology Technology risk Risk of failures due to business processes and operations or peoples behavior either intentional eg fraud or unintentional eg errors Integrity risk Risk of loss due to changes in the political social oreconomic environments Macroeconomic risk Unit of measureFootnote Source Source CONFIDENTIAL Document Date This report is solely for the use of client personnel No part of it may be circulated quoted or reproduced for distribution outside the client organization without prior written approval from McKinsey Company This material was used by McKinsey Company during an oral presentation it is not a complete record of the discussion CONFIDENTIAL Training materials 8 June 2001 This report is solely for the use of client personnel No part of it may be circulated quoted or reproduced for distribution outside the client organization without prior written approval from McKinsey Company This material was used by McKinsey Company during an oral presentation it isnot a complete record of the discussion Jim Ayala – PHO MelissaGil –PHO Regina Manzano – PHO Suresh Mustapha – PHO Steve Shaw – HKO ShellyYeh – PHO Choon-Gin Tan – SIO The objective of these templates is toprovide completeness and consistency of BU strategic plan submissions These templates are not intended to replace or constrain BU strategic thinking and should be adapted to reflect a particular BUs sectoral context as required Each section begins with a summary that is based on a synthesis of questions and analyses that follow The suggested approach would be to first complete the relevant back-up analyses and then worktowards the overall synthesis I Executive summary IIEnvironmental and internal assessment A Industry dynamics and its implications B Competitive assessment C Internal assessment III Strategic definition and implications A Strategy articulation BStrategic initiatives C Financial projection DRiskscontingencies and strategic alternatives IV Exhibits Industry dynamics and implications Environmental and internal assessment Competitive assessment Internal assessment What are the major changes in industry dynamics and resulting opportunities and risks What are your competitive strengths and weaknesses How does your current business emphasis fit with industry opportunity and competitive landscapeStrategy articulation Strategic definition and implications Strategic initiatives Financial projections What strategy will your BU pursue over the next 3 years What will be the impact of major strategic initiatives What are the expected financial returns of your strategy Riskcontingen-cies strategic alternatives What strategic alternatives have you consideredInstructions The Executive Summaryprovides a synthesis of theEnvironmental and InternalAssessments and theresultant BU Strategic Plans II ENVIRONMENTAL AND INTERNAL ASSESSMENT A What are the major changes in industry dynamics and the resulting opportunities and risks A2 How is industry structure changing demand supply and industry chain economics What are the resulting opportunities and risks A3 What is the expected competitor conduct What are the resulting opportunities and risks A4 What are the present and future external factors that could present new opportunities and risks A1What industry are you competing in What are the various segments in the industry InstructionsThe answer to thisoverarching questionrequires a recapitulationof the sections mainfindings InstructionsThese subsectionscontain a 1-2 sentencesummary of the relevantfindings A1 What industry are you competing in What are the various segments in the industry Industry definition Industry segmentation Definition Sizing InstructionsExhibit 1 could providea useful framework foranswering this question Industry definition Industry segmentation A2 How is industry structure changing with respect to demand supply and industry chain economics What are the resulting opportunities and risks Economics of demand By segment Substitutes ability to differentiate Volatility cyclicality Economics of supply Producer concentration and diversity Import competition Capacity utilization Entryexit barriers Cost structure fixed and variable Industry chain economics Customer and supplier bargaining power InstructionsExhibit 23 or 4 could providea useful framework foranswering this question A3 What is the expected competitor conduct What are the resulting opportunities and risks Major industry competitor movesMarketing initiatives Industry capacity changes MAs divestitures Vertical integrationdisaggregation Alliances and partnerships Costcontrol and efficiency improvements InstructionsExhibit 23 or 4 could providea useful framework foranswering this question A4 What are the present and future external factors that could present new opportunities and risks Impact and likelihood of major industry discontinuities Changes in regulationgovernment policy Technological breakthroughs Instructions Exhibit 23 or 4 could providea useful framework foranswering this question B What are your competitive strengths and weaknesses B1 What are the capabilities required to succeed in this industry B2 How do you compare against these necessary capabilities InstructionsThe answer to thisoverarching questionrequires a recapitulationof the sections mainfindings InstructionsThese subsectionscontain a 1-2 sentencesummary of the relevantfindings B1 What are the capabilities required to succeed in this industry Privileged assets that create competitive advantage eg physical assets locationspace distributionsales network intangible assetsintellectual capital network brands talents Distinctive skillscompetencies that create competitive advantage eginnovation talent development InstructionsExhibit 5 could providea useful framework foranswering this question B2 How do you compare against thesenecessary capabilities Strengths and weaknesses of your competitive position vs necessary capabilities Benchmark performance against the industrys relevant key performance indicators KPIs with margin andmarket share as the required minimum Strengths and weaknesses of your competitive position vs necessary capabilities Benchmark performance against therelevant industrys KPIs InstructionsExhibits 6 and 7 couldprovide a useful frameworkfor answering this question InstructionsExhibit 8 could providea useful framework foranswering this question KPIs are a handful of levers that drive the value of the industrybusiness C How does your current business emphasis。