A comparison of two downscaling methods for precipitation in China
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critical ratios of differencesCritical ratios of differences refer to the comparison of the size or magnitude of differences between two or more variables or groups in a statistical analysis. It is used to determine whether the observed differences are statistically significant or can be attributed to chance. In this article, we will explore the concept of critical ratios of differences and provide some examples to enhance understanding.When conducting statistical analyses, researchers often compare the means or proportions of different groups or variables to assess the significance of the differences observed. The critical ratio of differences helps to determine whether the observed differences are meaningful or can be considered statistically significant.To calculate the critical ratio of differences, one must first estimate the standard error of the difference between the means or proportions being compared. The standard error is a measure of the variability or spread of the data, and it is used to determine how much difference would be expected due to random chance alone.The critical ratio is then calculated by dividing the observed difference by the standard error. If the resulting ratio is larger than a predetermined critical value, it suggests that the observed difference is statistically significant. On the other hand, if the ratio is smaller than the critical value, it implies that the observed difference is likely due to chance.For instance, let's consider a study comparing the effectiveness of two different teaching methods on student performance. Theresearchers collect data from two groups of students – one taught using method A and the other using method B. They compute the mean scores for each group and find a difference of 5 points between the two means.To determine the significance of this difference, the researchers use the formula for the critical ratio of differences. They also estimate the standard error of the difference based on the sample sizes and variances of each group.If the calculated critical ratio is, for example, 1.96, which corresponds to a 95% confidence level, and the observed ratio is 2.5, then the researchers can conclude that the difference in student performance between the two teaching methods is statistically significant. This means that the observed difference is unlikely to have occurred by chance alone.The critical ratio of differences is also commonly used in hypothesis testing. Hypothesis testing involves setting up a null hypothesis and an alternative hypothesis and using statistical analyses to determine which hypothesis is supported by the data. The critical ratio helps researchers to make this determination.In conclusion, critical ratios of differences play a crucial role in statistical analyses by allowing researchers to assess the significance of observed differences between variables or groups. By comparing the observed difference to the standard error and the critical value, researchers can determine whether the observed difference is statistically meaningful or can be attributed to chance. This helps to ensure the accuracy and reliability of researchfindings and provides a basis for making informed decisions based on the data.。
第40卷第1期2021年2月红外与毫米波学报J.Infrared Millim.Waves Vol.40,No.1 February,2021基于风云气象卫星的土壤湿度数据降尺度方法研究盛佳慧1,2,3,饶鹏1,2*(1.中国科学院上海技术物理研究所,上海200083;2.中国科学院智能红外感知重点实验室,上海200083;3.中国科学院大学,北京100049)摘要:针对被动微波土壤湿度数据空间分辨率较低的问题,分别基于随机森林、多项式拟合及DISPATCH等统计学和物理模型,融合可见光、热红外和地表高程参量对风云三号B星(FY3B)微波土壤湿度数据进行降尺度,使其空间分辨率从25km提高至1km。
同时,考虑FY3B、与相关输入数据源过境时间不匹配现象,设置升降轨共计四组对照实验,对比分析FY3B降尺度的最优化数据组合。
采用2015年4月1日至2016年12月31日的REMEDHUS土壤湿度原位站点及ECA&D气象站点数据验证,结果显示随机森林方法综合降尺度精度最高,模型拟合效果最好。
此外,采用FY3B升轨数据降尺度效果更优。
关键词:土壤湿度;FY3B/MWRI;MODIS;降尺度;随机森林;DISPATCH;多项式拟合;REMEDHUS中图分类号:TP79;S152.7文献标识码:AThe research on downscaling methods based on Fengyunmeteorological satellite soil moisture dataSHENG Jia-Hui1,2,3,RAO Peng1,2*(1.Shanghai Institute of Technical Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Shanghai200083,China;2.Key Laboratory of Intelligent Infrared Perception,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Shanghai200083,China;3.University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing100049,China)Abstract:In view of the low spatial resolution of passive microwave soil moisture(SM)data,statisti‐cal and physical models including random forest(RF),polynomial fitting and DISPATCH are utilized to disaggregate the FY3B microwave SM product from25km to1km with the synergistic application of Optical/Thermal infrared(TIR)observations and surface elevation parameters.Meanwhile,consid‐ering different overpass times of FY3B and other relevant input data source observations,four data combinations are separately used to derive the spatially downscaled SM with above three downscaling method,and the optimized data combination of FY-3B downscaling is proposed by comparison and analysis.Validation is performed from April1,2015to December31,2016with the in-situ measure‐ments of REMEDHUS network and the precipitation time series of ECA&D meteorological site.Ex‐perimental results show that RF-based method can achieve the highest comprehensive downscaling ac‐curacy and the best model fitting effect.In addition,the effect of applying FY-3B ascending data to downscale turns out to be better.Key words:Soil moisture,FY3B/MWRI,MODIS,downscaling,random forest,DISPATCH,polynomial fitting,REMEDHUSPACS::07.07.Df,43.60.Rw文章编号:1001-9014(2021)01-0074-15DOI:10.11972/j.issn.1001-9014.2021.01.012收稿日期:2019⁃11⁃09,修回日期:2020⁃07⁃10Received date:2019⁃11⁃09,Revised date:2020⁃07⁃10基金项目:中国科学院先导培育计划项目(09KCE043N2)Foundation items:Supported by Pilot Cultivation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(09KCE043N2)作者简介(Biography):盛佳慧(1996-),女(满族),黑龙江绥化人,硕士研究生,现从事遥感图像处理技术研究。
两种统计降尺度方法在秦岭山地的适用性Liu Jiayi;Deng Lijiao;Fu Guobin;Bai Hongying;Wang Jun【摘要】基于ASD(automated statistical downscaling)统计降尺度模型提供的多元线性回归和岭回归两种统计降尺度方法,采用RCP4.5 (representative concentration pathways 4.5)和RCP8.5情景下全球气候模式MPI-ESM-LR输出的预报因子数据、NCEP/NCAR再分析数据和秦岭山地周边10个气象站观测数据,评估两种统计降尺度方法在秦岭山地的适用性及预估秦岭山地未来3个时期(2006-2040年、2041-2070年和2071-2100年)的平均气温和降水.结果表明:率定期和验证期内,两种统计降尺度方法均可以较好地模拟研究区域的平均气温和降水的变化特征,且多元线性回归的模拟效果优于岭回归.在未来气候情景下,两种统计降尺度方法预估的研究区域平均气温均呈明显上升趋势,气温增幅随辐射强迫增加而增大.降水方面,21世纪未来3个时期降水均呈不明显减少趋势,但季节分配发生变化.综合考虑两种统计降尺度方法在秦岭山地对平均气温和降水的模拟效果和情景预估结果,认为多元线性回归降尺度方法更适用于秦岭山地气候变化的降尺度预估研究.【期刊名称】《应用气象学报》【年(卷),期】2018(029)006【总页数】11页(P737-747)【关键词】气候变化;未来情景;统计降尺度;秦岭山地【作者】Liu Jiayi;Deng Lijiao;Fu Guobin;Bai Hongying;Wang Jun【作者单位】【正文语种】中文引言秦岭山地横贯我国中西部,是南北自然环境的天然分界线,有着古老的地质演化历史和复杂的自然环境。
秦岭山地不仅源源不断为关中山地提供充足的水源,还是南水北调中线工程的主要水源地,同时也对全球气候变化较为敏感[1]。
数据分析英语试题及答案一、选择题(每题2分,共10分)1. Which of the following is not a common data type in data analysis?A. NumericalB. CategoricalC. TextualD. Binary2. What is the process of transforming raw data into an understandable format called?A. Data cleaningB. Data transformationC. Data miningD. Data visualization3. In data analysis, what does the term "variance" refer to?A. The average of the data pointsB. The spread of the data points around the meanC. The sum of the data pointsD. The highest value in the data set4. Which statistical measure is used to determine the central tendency of a data set?A. ModeB. MedianC. MeanD. All of the above5. What is the purpose of using a correlation coefficient in data analysis?A. To measure the strength and direction of a linear relationship between two variablesB. To calculate the mean of the data pointsC. To identify outliers in the data setD. To predict future data points二、填空题(每题2分,共10分)6. The process of identifying and correcting (or removing) errors and inconsistencies in data is known as ________.7. A type of data that can be ordered or ranked is called________ data.8. The ________ is a statistical measure that shows the average of a data set.9. A ________ is a graphical representation of data that uses bars to show comparisons among categories.10. When two variables move in opposite directions, the correlation between them is ________.三、简答题(每题5分,共20分)11. Explain the difference between descriptive andinferential statistics.12. What is the significance of a p-value in hypothesis testing?13. Describe the concept of data normalization and its importance in data analysis.14. How can data visualization help in understanding complex data sets?四、计算题(每题10分,共20分)15. Given a data set with the following values: 10, 12, 15, 18, 20, calculate the mean and standard deviation.16. If a data analyst wants to compare the performance of two different marketing campaigns, what type of statistical test might they use and why?五、案例分析题(每题15分,共30分)17. A company wants to analyze the sales data of its products over the last year. What steps should the data analyst take to prepare the data for analysis?18. Discuss the ethical considerations a data analyst should keep in mind when handling sensitive customer data.答案:一、选择题1. D2. B3. B4. D5. A二、填空题6. Data cleaning7. Ordinal8. Mean9. Bar chart10. Negative三、简答题11. Descriptive statistics summarize and describe thefeatures of a data set, while inferential statistics make predictions or inferences about a population based on a sample.12. A p-value indicates the probability of observing the data, or something more extreme, if the null hypothesis is true. A small p-value suggests that the observed data is unlikely under the null hypothesis, leading to its rejection.13. Data normalization is the process of scaling data to a common scale. It is important because it allows formeaningful comparisons between variables and can improve the performance of certain algorithms.14. Data visualization can help in understanding complex data sets by providing a visual representation of the data, making it easier to identify patterns, trends, and outliers.四、计算题15. Mean = (10 + 12 + 15 + 18 + 20) / 5 = 14, Standard Deviation = √[(Σ(xi - mean)^2) / N] = √[(10 + 4 + 1 + 16 + 36) / 5] = √52 / 5 ≈ 3.816. A t-test or ANOVA might be used to compare the means ofthe two campaigns, as these tests can determine if there is a statistically significant difference between the groups.五、案例分析题17. The data analyst should first clean the data by removing any errors or inconsistencies. Then, they should transformthe data into a suitable format for analysis, such ascreating a time series for monthly sales. They might also normalize the data if necessary and perform exploratory data analysis to identify any patterns or trends.18. A data analyst should ensure the confidentiality andprivacy of customer data, comply with relevant data protection laws, and obtain consent where required. They should also be transparent about how the data will be used and take steps to prevent any potential misuse of the data.。
八年级英语议论文论证方法单选题40题1. In the essay, the author mentions a story about a famous scientist to support his idea. This is an example of _____.A.analogyB.exampleparisonD.metaphor答案:B。
本题主要考查论证方法的辨析。
选项A“analogy”是类比;选项B“example”是举例;选项C“comparison”是比较;选项D“metaphor”是隐喻。
文中提到一个关于著名科学家的故事来支持观点,这是举例论证。
2. The writer uses the experience of his own life to prove his point. This kind of method is called _____.A.personal storyB.example givingC.case studyD.reference答案:B。
选项A“personal story”个人故事范围较窄;选项B“example giving”举例;选项C“case study”案例分析;选项D“reference”参考。
作者用自己的生活经历来证明观点,这是举例论证。
3. The author cites several historical events to strengthen his argument. What is this method?A.citing factsB.giving examplesC.making comparisonsing analogies答案:B。
选项A“citing facts”引用事实,历史事件可以作为例子,所以是举例论证;选项B“giving examples”举例;选项C“making comparisons”比较;选项D“using analogies”使用类比。
FORSCHUNGSZENTRUM J¨ULICH GmbHZentralinstitut f¨ur Angewandte MathematikD-52425J¨ulich,Tel.(02461)61-6402Interner BerichtA Comparison of twoParallization Strategiesfor TRACEMichael Gerndt,Olaf Neuendorf*Joachim Pr¨u mmer,Harry Vereecken*KFA-ZAM-IB-9425November1994(Stand22.11.94)(*)Institut f¨u r Erd¨o l und Organische Geochemie(ICG4)Prepare Boundary ConditionsCompute fluxes through all types of boundaries Solve system of linear equations Update time-dependent boundary conditions time loopvariable boundary loopnon-linear loopEvaluate soil propertiesPrepare variable boundary conditionsSPROP CGALGAssemble the nonlinear equationASSEMBLE Evaluate soil propertiesSPROPtime loopUpdate time-dependent boundary conditionsvariable boundary loopnon-linear loopEvaluate soil propertiesAssemble the nonlinear equationsPrepare Boundary ConditionsSchwarz loopSolve system of linear equationsExchange appropriate boundary informationEvaluate soil propertiesPrepare variable boundary conditionsCompute fluxes through all types of boundariescheck pressure head and infiltration1 gather operation on non-local nodes1 gather operation on non-local nodesCompute fluxes through all types of boundaries 1 scatter_add operation on non-local boundary nodes 1 global sum operationAssemble the nonlinear equation1 gather operation on non-local nodes2 scatter_add operations on non-local nodes2 scatter_add operations on variable boundary nodes 1 gather operation on nonlocal nodesnon-linear loopvariable boundary looptime loopUpdate time dependent boundary conditions9 gather operations on nonlocal nodesCompute translation tables and scheduling informationcalculate residuum of the non-linear loopSolve system of linear equations1 gather operation in loopcalculate residuum1 global sum operationEvaluate soil properties1 gather operation on non-local nodes2 scatter_add operations on non-local nodesPrepare boundary conditionsEvaluate soil properties4 gather operations on non-local nodesPrepare variable boundary conditions3 scatter_add operations on non-local nodes1 global max operation1 global sum operation92169211 Arraydx = dy = dz = 5 cm。
J. Chem. Chem. Eng. 7 (2013) 533-538Comparison of Detoxification Methods on Phorbol Esters in Deoiled Jatropha curcas Meal for Animal FeedsVittaya Punsuvon1, 2, 3* and Rayakorn Nokkaew21. Deparment of Chemistry, Faculty of Science, Kasetsart University, Bangkok 10900, Thailand2. Center of Excellence-Oil Palm, Kasetsart University, Bangkok 10900, Thailand3. Center for Advanced Studies in Tropical Natural Resource, Kasetsart University, Bangkok 10900, ThailandReceived: January 03, 2013 / Accepted: January 30, 2013 / Published: June 25, 2013.Abstract: The deoiled Jatropha curcas meal by hexane extraction was detoxified phorbol esters by two different methods. These two methods were alkali in methanol and only ethanol washing. After both treatments, the PEs (phorbol esters) was decreased by 100%. The crude protein in detoxified meal of alkali in methanol washing was less amount than only ethanol washing. The result showed that treatment by only ethanol washing was a promising way to detoxify deoiled Jatropha curcas meal for animal feeds in industrial scale.Key words: Detoxification, phorbol esters, jatropha meal, animal feed.1. IntroductionJatropha curcas Linn is a drought-resistant plant which belongs to the Euphorbiaceae family. It has been widely cultivated in central and south America, south-east Asia, India and Africa. Since it is a multipurpose tree, it has been promoted for planting in Thailand. It can be grown in low to high rainfall areas either in farms as a commercial crop or as a hedge to protect fields and prevent erosion. Its seeds contained a high amount of oil content approximately 50%-60% which is a good source of biodiesel fuel [1]. After extraction of oil, the Jatropha curcas seedcake is rich in protein between 50%-64%. Except for lysine, all other essential amino acids in the cake have been reported to be higher concentrations than those of the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) reference. However, the Jatropha curcas seed cake was found to be toxic to mice, rats, calves, sheep, goats, human and chickens, which greatly restricts its use. Some antinutritional components such as saponin, phytate,*Corresponding author: Vittaya Punsuvon, Associate Professor, Ph.D., research fields: biodiesel, green chemistry. E-mail:*************.th.trypsin inhibitors, glucosinolates, amylase inhibitors, flavonoids, vitexine, isovitexine and cyanogenic glucosides, as well as toxic irritant compounds, such as curcin, β-D-glucosides of sitosterol and 12-deoxy-16-hydroxy phorbol were reported in Jatropha curcas seed cake. Apart from these, PEs (phorbol esters) present at high levels in the seed cake had been identified as the main toxic agent responsiblefor toxicity [2].The term PEs is used today to describe a naturally occurring family of compounds widely distributed in plant species of the Euphorbiaceae family. These compounds are the esters of trigliante diterpenes. The fundamental substance, the alcohol moiety of this family of compounds is a tetracyclic diterpene as shown in Fig. 1.The hydroxylation of this fundamental substance in various position and concentration to various acid moieties by ester bonding characterize the large number of compounds termed as PEs which has six chemical structure 2-7 as shown in Fig. 2 [3].The analysis in the work of Hass et al. [4] was usedan isocratic mixture of80% acetronitrile and 20%All Rights Reserved.Comparison of Detoxification Methods on Phorbol Esters in Deoiled Jatropha curcas Meal for Animal Feeds534Fig. 1 Chemical structure of trigliane.Fig. 2 Six chemical structures of phorbol esters.Fig. 3 HPLC chromatogram of the methanol extract of Jatropha curcas seed oil from Hass [4].deionized water determined the retention time of phorbol esters by to 6-11 min. Therefore, the total sum of the phorbol esters peaks (retention time: 6-11 min) was used for quantification (Fig. 3).The biological effects of this compound are tumor promotion and cell proliferation. Various methods such as, water leaching, autoclaving, acid and alkali treatments were adopted to detoxify Jatropha curcas seed cake that was obtained after oil pressing. A few research of phorbol esters detoxification had been workon deoiled Jatropha curcas meal, it can be obtainedafter solvent extraction, which contained less phorbol esters content than seed cake. So, the objective of this research is to compare two methods especially alkali in methanol and only ethanol washing, to obtain a methodthat can not only effectively remove phorbol esters compound but also maintain the crude protein contentof detoxified meal.2. Materials and Methods2.1 MaterialsJatrop ha curcas seeds were obtained from Green Energy Group, Thailand. TPA (Phorbol-12-myristate-13-acetate) (Sigma Chemical Co., Ltd., USA) was phorbol ester standard. The other chemicals were analytical grade.2.2 Detoxification MethodJatrop ha curcas seeds were deshelled and the kernelwas ground. The ground kernel was deoiled using hexane extraction in soxhlet extraction for 4 h. The deoiled ground kernel of Jatrop ha curcas meal was treated by the following two methods: (1) The samplewas washed by 0.1 M NaOH in 90% methanol. The procedure was carried out by putting 80 g of deoiledmeal into round bottom flask and added 800 mL ofalkali in methanol solution into the flask. The heatingwas operated under reflux and constant stirring at 65︒C for 30 min. Then the solution was removed by vacuum filtration. The residue was washed again with100 mL of 90% methanol. After that, the residue was spread to dry at room temperature. (2) The sample wasonly washed by 85% ethanol. The procedure was carried out by putting 80 g of deoiled meal into round bottom flask and added 800 mL of 85% ethanol solution into the flask. The heating was operated underreflux and constant stirring at 40 ︒C for 30 min. Thenthe solution was removed by vacuum filtration. The residue was washed again with 100 mL of 85% ethanol.All Rights Reserved.Comparison of Detoxification Methods on Phorbol Esters inDeoiled Jatropha curcas Meal for Animal Feeds535After that, the residue was spread to dry at room temperature.2.3 Determination of Phorbol Esters ContentPhorbol esters were extracted from 10 g of deoiled and detoxified meal. 200 mL of methanol was used as solvent in soxhlet extractor for 4 h of extraction. After extraction, methanol was further evaporated by vacuum rota-evaporator until 10 mL of solution was obtained. The portion of solution was determined the phorbol esters concentration by HPLC-UV (high performance liquid chromatography with ultraviolet detector) (Shimadzu, LC-10AC, Japan).Phorbol esters concentration was determined according to Punsuvon et al. [5] that analyzed by HPLC and the method was modified from the method of Hass et al. [4]. A aliquot was load on a HPLC-UV reverse phase C18 Lichrophere 100, 5 μm (250 mm × 4 mm I.D.; Merck, Germany) column. The column was protected with a head column containing the same material. The separation was performed at 35 ︒C, 1 mL/min of flow rate and isocratic elution (4:1 by vol. of acetronitrile: DI water) for mobile phase. The phorbol esters chromatogram has four peaks to detect at 280 nm and appeared between 8-12 min. The results were expressed as equivalent to a standard, TPA (phorbol-12-myristate-13-acetate).2.4 Determination of Crude ProteinCrude protein in detoxified meal was determined in accordance with the standard method of the AOAC (Association of Official Analytical Chemists) 992.23.3. Results and DiscussionThe chromatogram of phorbol esters in Jratropha curcas meal before hexane extraction and deoiled after hexane extraction were presented in Figs. 4 and 5.Both chromatograms had four peaks of phorbol esters that appeared between 8-12 min. We calculated the phorbol esters concentration by summation the area of these four peaks and compared the concentration with TPA as external standard. The result showed that phorbol esters concentration in meal before hexane extraction was 2.9259 mg/g and in deoiled meal after oil extraction was 0.5482 mg/g. This result indicated phorbol esters mostly dissolved in oil. In addition, solvent extraction was better than pressing extractionFig. 4 Chromatogram of phorbol esters in Jratropha curcas meal before hexane extraction. All Rights Reserved.Comparison of Detoxification Methods on Phorbol Esters inDeoiled Jatropha curcas Meal for Animal Feeds536Fig. 5 Chromatogram of phorbol esters in Jratropha curcas deoiled meal after hexane extraction.Fig. 6 Chromatogram of phorbol esters after detoxification by alkali in 90% methanol washing.in term of oil recovery and phorbol esters detoxification in deoiled meal.The results of phorbol esters detoxification by alkali in 90% methanol and 85% ethanol were shown in Figs. 6 and 7, respectively.The non toxified deoiled meals can be showed in Figs. 8a and 8b.Both chromatograms had not appeared four peaks of phorbol esers between 8-12 min. This means all phorbol esters content could be remove by both in 90%methanol and 85% ethanol for washing. The detoxification of phorbol esters by both washing method had effectively decreased by 100% of phorbol esters content in deoiled meals.This result indicated that 85% ethanol washing had the same efficiency in phorbol esters removing as alkali in 90% methanol washing. But the advantage of ethanol is nontoxic solvent when it is compared with methanol. So, ethanol is suitable solvent for phorbol esters removing from the deoiled meal in case that theAll Rights Reserved.Comparison of Detoxification Methods on Phorbol Esters inDeoiled Jatropha curcas Meal for Animal Feeds537Fig. 7 Chromatogram of phorbol esters after detoxification by 85% ethanol washing.Fig. 8 Nontoxified deoiled meal after washing: (a) alkali in 90% methanol; (b) 85% ethanol.nontoxic deoiled meal is used as animal feed. Additional, the condition of ethanol washing is lower temperature (40 C) than alkali in 90% methanol washing.The detoxified deoiled meals were further analyzed for crude protein. The result showed deoiled meal after alkali in 90% methanol and 85% ethanol for washing contained were 61.47% and 65.41% of crude protein, respectively. It indicated that alkali in 90% methanol denatured the protein content in deoiled meal.4. ConclusionsDetoxification methods of phorbol esters for Jatropha curcas deoiled meal are very important since the meal is a co-product of biofuel industry. Therefore, a simple and inexpensive detoxification technique ofphorbol esters is necessary. On the basis of the results of this research, it can by concluded that the 85% ethanol washing is more a economic and effective method to maintain crude protein content than alkali in 90% methanol washing. It can be concluded that this method was a promising way to detoxify Jatropha curcas deoiled meal after solvent extraction for animal feed. The further study is to optimize the weight to volume ratio of deoiled meal and ethanol for continuous extraction in industrial scale.AcknowledgmentsThis work was supported by Higher Education Research Promotion and National Research University Project of Thailand, Office of the Higher Education Commision. The authors also would like to thank Green Energy Group for kindly providing Jatropha curcas seed and partly funded for this study.References[1] Saetae, D.; Suntorasuk, W. Variation of Phorbol EstersContents in Jatropha curcas from Different Provinces in Thailand and Application of Its Seed Cake for Starter Broiler Diets. Am. Euras. J. Agric. Environ. Sci. 2010, 8, 497-501.[2] Xiao, J.; Zhang, H. Evaluation of Detoxification Methodsin Toxic and Antinutritional Composition and Nutritional Quality of Protein in Jatropha curcas Meal. J. Agr. Food(a)(b)All Rights Reserved.Comparison of Detoxification Methods on Phorbol Esters inDeoiled Jatropha curcas Meal for Animal Feeds538Chem.2011,59, 4040-4044.[3]Haas, W.; Mittelbach, M. Novel 12-deoxy-16 HydroxyPhorbol Diester Isolated from the Seed Oil of Jatropha curcas L.. J. Nat. Prod.2002,65, 1334-1440.[4]Haas, W.; Mittelbach, M. Detoxification Experiments withthe Seed Oil from Jatropha curcas L.. Ind. Crop Prod.2000,12, 111-118.[5]Punsuvon, V.; Nokkaew, R.; Vaithanomsat, P. InEliminated Phorbol Esters in Seed Oil and Press Ake ofJatropha curcas L., Proceedings in Pure and AppliedChemistry International Conference 2008, 2008; pp 202-207.All Rights Reserved.。
31. There are problems associated with providing a bad experience to a customer. The customercan turn on you. A term associated with this is:A) Defector B) T erroristC) Marginal D) Piranha39. If the project internal rate of return is estimated to be 11% andI) The company cost of capital is 10%II) The company cost of capital is 12%III) Funds are limited and another project will yield 14%IV) Funds are unlimited and another project will yield 14%A) I and III are true B) I and IV are trueC) II and III are true D) II and IV are true48. Advantages of computer software driven project management methods include:I) Ability to analyze "What-if" optionsII) Automatic calculation of the critical pathIII) The effects of actual results on the project are knownIV) Training requirements are minimalA) I, II and III only B) II, III and IV onlyC) II and III only D) I, II, III and IV75. In the six sigma define step, the critical to quality tree is used by the project team. the variouslevels of the tree are determined EXCEPT for:A) The exact metrics for the customerB) The needs of the customerC) The basic drivers for the customerD) The potential third level CTQ metrics79. If you are reading this question you are a customer of QCI, Identify QCI process outputelements from the list below:I) Binder suppliersII) Solution textsIII) AuthorsIV) Paper suppliersV) LibrariesVI) Question CDsVII) Study PrimersA) II, VI and VII only B) I and IV onlyC) III and V only D) II, III and VII only84. The probability of Steven passing his math course is 0.7, the probability of Steve passing hishistory class is 0.8. if the probability of Steve passing both course is 0.56, what is theprobability Steve will pass either math or history?A) 0 B) 1C) 0.99 D) 0.8485. The hypergeometric distribution should be used instead of the binomial distribution when:A) There are more than 2 outcomes on a single trialB) Each trial is independentC) Sampling does not involve replacementD) There is a fixed number of trials89. When conducting a process capability study consistent with PPAP requirements, which of thefollowing is mandatory?A) A submission of related control chart dataB) A selected characteristic that is controllableC) Data collected from a significant production run of 300 or more consecutive piecesD) A demonstrated 5 sigma capability90. For the Weibull distribution, as the scale parameter decreases:A) The Weibull is equivalent to the exponentialB) The location parameter approaches zeroC) The probability density function stretches to the rightD) The probability density function is compressed to the left101. Tremendous advances had been made in the quality of an electronic component, produced in quantities of one million units per year. last year only six defectives were discovered.A further improvement was mad. The plant manager asked the master black belt to run a100,000unit trial to determine with 95% confidence if the rate had been lowered by 2 DPMO.What was the master black belt response?A) It will take too much timeB) It can't be done with 100,000unitsC) It will only be proven if 0 defectives are foundD) We must look for a larger improvement for testing purposes103. In an experiment designed to compare two different ways of measuring a given quantity, it was desired to test the null hypothesis that the means were equal at the 0.05 level ofsignificance. A sample of five parts was measured by method I and a sample of seven parts with method II. A t-ratio of 2.179 was obtained. we should:A) Reject the null hypothesisB) Fail to reject the null hypothesisC) Conclude that X1 is significantly greater than X2D) Conclude that we must know the sample means in order to answer the question107. A study was made on the effects of several health additives for a number of elite runners.the results of a One-Way ANOVA are presented in the following table. how manysubjects(runners) were in the study?Source Df Sum of Squares MSBetween 3 55.00Within 15 450.50T otal 18 505.50A) 18 B) 19C) 3 D) 4110. Y ou have just conducted a designed experiment at three levels A, B, and C yielding the following "Coded" data:A B C6 5 33 9 45 1 2As a major step in your analysis, you calculate the degree of freedom for the "error" sum of squares to be:A) 7 B) 9C) 6 D) 3113. Which of the following nonparametric tests does NOT make a ranking evaluation by comparison with a critical value of chi-square?A) Mood's median testB) Spearman Rank correlation coefficientC) Kendall Coefficient of concordanceD) Kruskal-Wallis test115. When analyzing experimental data, which term describes the condition in which the error variance is inconsistent among observations?A) Stochastic variationB) HomoscedasticityC) HeterogeneousD) Heteroscedasticity128. If a sample space contains several unknown minima areas, then what can happen using steepest ascent methodology?A) Many tests may be requiredB) The yield contours must be ignoredC) The design area around point p must be expandedD) A wrong answer can result131. T aguchi methods uses a linear graph to help interpret the corresponding orthogonal array.For instance, for a L4 array, a linear graph with factors 1 and 2 at the endpoints, and factors3 at the midpoint indicates:A) Factor 3 is the interaction of factors 1 and 2B) That factor 4 is missing, since it is a L4C) The main factors (1 and 3) are interactionsD) Factor 2 will be the experimental result133. Plackett and Burman designs are used for screening experiments. There are geometric and non-geometric designs. it has been stated that runs of 12,20,24,28, and 36 runs arenon-geometric designs. This is because:A) The runs are in multiples of 4B) The non-geometric design has 2-factor interactions confounded with main effectsC) The geometric design runs are in powers of 2D) A PB design of 12 runs can have 11 factors covered137. A four factor, three level experiment must be conducted. What are the fewest number o of trials possible if all interactions are ignored?A) 9B) 18C) 27D) 81138. When selecting and scaling the process input variables for an experiment, what is NOT a desirable approach?A) Include as many important factors as possibleB) Set factor levels at practical or possible levelsC) Combine process measurement responses when possibleD) Be bold, but not foolish, in selecting high and low factor levels142. The most common subgrouping scheme for Xbar-R control charts is to separate the variation:A) Within stream versus stream to streamB) Within time versus time to timeC) Within piece versus piece to pieceD) Inherent process versus error of measurement143. If a process is out of control, the theoretical probability that a single point on the X bar chart will fall between plus one sigma and the upper control limits is:A) 0.2240B) 0.1587C) UnknownD) 0.3413144. A process is checked by inspection of random samples of four s hafts after a polishing operation. and Xbar and R charts are maintained. A person making a spot check picks out two shafts, measures them accurately, and plots the value of each on the chart. Both points fall just outside the control limits. He advises the department foreman to stop the process.This decision indicates that:A) The process levels is out of controlB) Both the level and dispersion are out of controlC) The process levels is out of control but not the dispersionD) The person is not using the chart correctly146. When using a pre-control chart, it's possible to have two consecutive samples outside of the target area but inside of the specification. What is the expectation that two consecutivesamples would both fall between the target area and the specification limit on the high side?A) 1/7B) 1/49C) 1/196D) 1/98147. The best chart for analyzing volatile data, like stock market averages or commodity prices, would be:A) EWMA 指数加权移动平均控制图B) CuSum累积和控制图C) Moving averageD) Short run148. What type of control chart employs a V-mask?A) EWMAB) Moving averageC) CuSumD) Short run150. If two-sigma limits are substituted for conventional three-sigma limits on a control chart, which of the following occurs?A) Decrease in alpha risk B) Increase in beta riskC) Increase in alpha risk D) Increase in sample size151. Which of the following types of control charts has the largest average run length for small shifts in the process mean?A) X bar B) Cumulative sumC) EWMA D) Dodge-Romig154. An operator is observed plotting nominal and target charts, what technique is being employed?A) Xbar-R charts B) Attribute chartsC) Short-run charts D) CuSum charts158. Y ou look at a process and note that the chart for averages has been in control. If the range suddenly and significantly increases, the mean will:A) Usually increaseB) Stay the sameC) Always decreaseD) Occasionally show out of control of either limit159. An Xbar and R chart was prepared for an operation using twenty samples with five pieces in each sample, Xbarbar was found to be 33.6 and Rbar was 6.20. During production, asample of five was taken and the pieces measured 36,43,37,25,and 38. At the time, this sample was taken:A) Both the average and range were within control limitsB) Neither the average nor range were within control limitsC) Only the average was outside control limitsD) Only the range was outside control limits172. The Shingo prize business model does NOT consider:A) The strategic planning processB) BechmarkingC) InnovationD) Community support175. Assume an operation speed rate of 80%. If 40 units are produced at 2 minutes/unit in two hours, what is the performance efficiency of the work unit?A) 0.800 B) 0.667C) 0.534 D) 0.435180. The Shingo prize business model does NOT consider:A) The strategic planning process B) BenchmarkingC) Innovation D) Community support181. A number of authors have recommended sequences by which the HOQ(QFD) can capture customer needs in the design. Please arrange the following design details inappropriate sequence from start to finish.I) Production requirementsII) Key process operationsIII) Parts characteristicsIV) Engineering characteristicsA) I, II, III, IVB) II, I, IV, IIC) IV, I I, III, ID) IV, III, II, I188. The design of a solution using a broad set of possible solutions, converging to a narrow set of possible, and then to a final solution, is referred to as:A) 20 questions approachB) Set-based designC) Systematic designD) Pugh method189. Review the following set of DFX statements and identify the single true description:A) DFSS is a subset of DFXB) The selection of DFX tools is relatively simpleC) DFX is a targeted development approachD) DFX was first created in the 1990's191. Cooper stresses that new products will have a greater chance of success if they have all of the following characteristics EXCEPT:A) Having an attractive marketB) Having a unique and superior productC) Being first to marketD) Having a good product launch194. TRIZ is a methodology for problem solving and is quite useful in the design phase of a product. Which of the following methods are employed in TRIZ?I) Trial and errorII) Reference to a trickIII) Use of physical effects (Physics)IV) Combination of tricks and physicsA) I and II onlyB) II and III onlyC) I, II and III onlyD) II, III and IV only198. In the design of many parts and products, it is best if the deviation from the target not exceed a certain amount. The best tolerance objective is termed:A) Nominal-is-bestB) Larger-is-betterC) Smaller-is-betterD) 6 sigma achievement199. The T aguchi loss function follows which type of relationship, as actual values deviate from the target?A) Reverse normal B) LinearC) Log normal D) Parabolic。
THEMATIC ISSUEA comparison of two downscaling methods for precipitation in ChinaNa Zhao 1,2•Chuan-Fa Chen 3•Xun Zhou 1•Tian-Xiang Yue 1Received:27May 2015/Accepted:26August 2015ÓSpringer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015Abstract In most cases,climate change projections from General Circulation Models (GCM)and Regional Climate Models cannot be directly applied to climate change impact studies,and downscaling is,therefore,needed.A large number of statistical downscaling methods exist,but no clear recommendations exist of which methods are more appropriate,depending on the application.This paper compares two different statistical downscaling methods,Pre sim1and Pre sim2,using the Coupled Model Intercom-parison Project Phase 5(CMIP5)datasets and station observations.Both methods include two steps,but the major difference between them is how the CMIP5dataset and the station data used.The downscaled precipitation data are validated with observations through China and Jiangxi province from 1976to 2005.Results show that GCMs cannot be used directly in climate change impact studies.In China,the second method Pre sim2,which establishes regression model based on the station data,has a tendency to overestimate or underestimate the real val-ues.The accuracy of Pre sim1is much better than Pre sim2based on mean absolute error,mean relative error and root mean square error.Pre sim1fuses the mode data and station data effectively.Results also show the importance of themeteorological station data in the process of residual modification.Keywords Global climate models ÁStatisticaldownscaling method ÁGWR ÁHASM ÁPrecipitation ÁChinaIntroductionPrecipitation as a fundamental component of the global water cycle is a key parameter of ecology,hydrology and meteorology (Goovaerts 2000;Langella et al.2010;Li and Shao 2010;Antonellini et al.2014;Samper et al.2014).Understanding and quantifying the spatial variability of precipitation are of key importance in hydrological studies as precipitation drives most hydrological,environmental and agricultural processes.However,strong precipitation gradients over short distance are difficult to capture with point measurements from meteorological stations.Stations are generally located in areas which are readily accessible.It is usually low and insufficient for the use of conventional spatial interpolation techniques (Celleri et al.2007;Ward et al.2011).In recent years,the development of remote sensing and geographic information technology has pre-sented us with new methods of precipitation observation (Michaelides et al.2009).Satellite precipitation data have been widely evaluated with a better performance (Dinku et al.2007)and used for many applications such as hydrological modeling (Li et al.2012;Su et al.2008;Swenson and Wahr 2009),flood prediction (Li et al.2009),land cover (Cho et al.2014),rainfall erosivity estimation (Vrieling et al.2010)and climatological studies (Islam and Uyeda 2007).But studies show that different remote sensing data have different performances in China (Gao&Tian-Xiang Yueyue@1State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China2Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographic Information Resource Development and Application,Nanjing 210023,Jiangsu,China3Geomatics College,Shandong University of Science and Technology,Qingdao 266590,ChinaEnviron Earth SciDOI 10.1007/s12665-015-4750-7and Liu2013;Kan et al.2013).Moreover,the temporal coverage of remote sensing data is limited,not long enough to resolve the decadal trends and variability in China.In the World Climate Research Programme(WCRP), different global climate models(GCMs)participate in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase5(CMIP5). The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase5 (CMIP5)datasets have been used for the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (AR5).These simulations of GCMs have demonstrated the ability to generally replicate the precipitation trend over the second half of the twentieth century,and can offer precipitation in a longer time scale.However,GCMs have so far been too coarse to resolve this geographically well-defined region.A number of studies have been carried out to create a connection between climate change at the large scale and at the regional scale.The most straightforward approach is linear or more sophisticated methods of interpolation between large-scale grid points closest to the region to infer the regional scale.This method has attracted a lot of criticism,since it is felt that the model resolution is too coarse and the model performance is too poor to allow for interpolation of the results.To overcome the problems with direct interpolation,the approach ter-med downscaling can be pursued.This approach is based on the understanding that the large-scale information provided by standard coarse-grid GCMs may be postpro-cessed together with the regional information to specify the regional details of the present climate and its sensi-tivity to changes in atmospheric composition or other external anomalies.Downscaling methods are usually classified as either dynamical or statistical.Dynamical downscaling involves the use of high-resolution,limited-area climate models within the domain of interest, whereas in statistical downscaling relatively simple sta-tistical models are used to represent the link between atmospheric circulation variables,presumably well simu-lated by the GCMs,and local weather variables such as precipitation and temperature(Wilby and Wigley1997; Fowler et al.2007;Tareghian and Rasmussen2013;Duan and Mei2014).Statistical downscaling method is widely undertaken because it is easy and fast to apply(Fowler et al.2007;Haylock et al.2006;Barfus and Bernhofer 2014).Statistical downscaling is a two-step process con-sisting of(1)the development of statistical relationships between local climate variables and large-scale predictors and(2)the application of such relationships to the output of GCM experiments to simulate local climate character-istic in the future.The two main challenges in statistical downscaling are the determination of the functional rela-tionship and the identification of the predictor variables that convey the most relevant information about the pre-dictand and the climate change signal.Although there is a large body of literatures where an intercomparison of different downscaling methods has been made(Mehrotra et al.2004;Diaz-Nieto and Wilby 2005;Frost et al.2011;Liu et al.2012),very few of these studies have compared downscaling methods from the point of data usage ways.Here,we present two statistical downscaling methods and compare them to give the opti-mal one for China.We use the meteorological site infor-mation over China to downscale the simulations of CMIP5 output results.Both statistical downscaling methods used here involve two steps:(1)determining a local linear model by Geographical Weighted Regression method(GWR)for every location in the prediction domain,(2)using the High Accuracy Surface Modeling method(HASM)to modify the residual produced by thefirst step.The major differ-ence between them is the data used in the two steps.Then, we use the separate dataset in Jiangxi province and10%of the data from national scale to validate the results.At last,a conclusion is given in thefinal section.Study area and dataChina is located in east Asia.It is the third largest country on earth.China’s topography varies enormously from high mountainous regions to inhospitable desert zones andflat, fertile plains.It is a predominantly mountainous country with a very distinct structural pattern.The extremely varied landforms of China affect the climate conditions in various ways.Precipitation over China exhibits complex space and time rge interannual variability causes local precipitation tofluctuate from year to year.Severalfloods and droughts often occur in the same season of a year over different regions.Precipitation over China has distinct seasonal characteristics,and is largely controlled by the monsoon circulation.Traditionally,the time from mid-May to the end of August has been defined as the east Asian summer monsoon season,resulting in remarkably variable precipitation for the whole region(Wang and Li2007).The historical precipitation data of752stations across China were obtained from the national meteorological network in China for the period1976–2005,which were further analyzed for quality control.The sampling periods of the meteorology stations are not synchronous.Only712 stations with more than20complete years are selected with the exception of30locations with between15and25 complete years,which are located in the west of China.We chose10%of the total sampled points to verify test results and withheld from the downscaling calculations.We also used the meteorological stations in Jiangxi province to validate the results(Fig.1).The WCRP’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase5(CMIP5)multi-modelEnviron Earth Scidatasets (Moss et al.2008)were used in the period1976–2005with a resolution of 1o Â1o .The output data-bases from 21climate models were selected for the climate change projections in China under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)scenarios.The selected models include both twentieth century climate simulations and twenty-first century climate projections under the RCP2.6,RCP4.5,and RCP8.5scenarios.MethodThe statistical downscaling method used in this study can be summarized as,Pre sim ¼Pre downscale þPre resð1Þwhere Pre sim is the final result,Pre downscale is the down-scaling result and will be obtained by the GWR method.Pre res is the residual produced by GWR and will be inter-polated by HASM.The two downscaling methods are different according to the data used in Pre downscale ,and thus in Pre res .We denote the result of the first method is Pre sim1and the second is Pre sim2.For Pre sim1,we use CMIP5output to form the regression function and then get Pre downscale1,and employ station data to modify the residual to obtain Pre res1.While for Pre sim2,we use meteorological informa-tion to establish a statistical transfer function using latitude,longitude,elevation,and impact coefficient of aspect as independent variables to produce Pre downscale2,and employ the results of CMIP5to modify the residual and obtain Pre res2.The second method Pre sim2has been widely used in climate change research in recent years (Yue 2011;Wang et al.2012;Fan et al.2012).Geographically weighted regression methodDue to the large gradients in precipitation means and variances in China,it is common practice to transform observed precipitation first:Pre i ¼Pre imax Pre i ;i ¼1;...;nÈÉ;ð2Þwhere Pre i is the CMIP5simulation value in the first method or the station data in the second method,Pre i is the transformed data,n is the number of grids of CMIP5results or the number of stations.This process can limit extreme values in the results.Then,we carry Box–Cox transform of Pre i ,which can give a more normal distribution and/or improved predic-tions (Box and Cox 1964;Sakia 1992).The formulation of this transformation is,Pre i ¼ln Pre i ;d ¼0Pre di À1d ;d ¼08>><>>:ð3Þwhere Pre i is the Box–Cox transformed data and d is a suitable parameter,which is selected to make Pr e i obey normal distribution and thus satisfy the assumption of GWR method (Fotheringham et al.2002).In this paper,d ¼0:4in the first method and d ¼0:48in the second method.Studies have shown that this process avoids neg-ative values in the results and is necessary for precipitation interpolation (Yue et al.2013).It is incorrect to hold that the same linear relationship is appropriate in all places especially in the case of orographic enhancement.Unlike the ordinary linear regression model,GWR (Brunsdon et al.1996;Loader 2004)is developed to deal with non-stationarity in the regression context,which is especially important for characterizing highly variable pre-cipitation within China.GWR method has been successfully used in precipitation research (Brunsdon et al.2001)and the formulation of GWR can be written as Pre downscale ¼d 0;0ðx i ;y j ÞþX N i ;j ¼1a i ;j d i ;j ðx i ;y j Þð4ÞPre downscale is the downscaling value of ði ;j Þgrid-box inthe finer scale;d 0;0x i ;y j ÀÁis the intercept;a i ;j is theexplanatory variable and d i ;j x i ;y j ÀÁis the corresponding coefficient which is a function of the position.x i ;y i are the longitude and latitude,respectively.We select the inde-pendent variables from latitude,longitude,elevation,impact coefficient of aspect and sky view factor according to the value of the adjust R2in GWR.In this research,the most influence factors are latitude,longitude,elevationandFig.1Spatial distribution of the meteorological network in ChinaEnviron Earth Sciimpact coefficient of aspect with R2is equal to0.92for the first method and0.91for the second method.HasmAs an innovative surface modeling method(Yue2011), HASM is based on the fundamental theorem of surfaces which ensures that a surface is uniquely defined by itsfirst and second fundamental coefficients.Thefirst fundamental coefficients reflect the local details in the surface and the second fundamental coefficients mean the macro-informa-tion of the surface.The equation of HASM is the following symmetric positive definite linear system(Zhao and Yue 2014),Wx nþ1¼v nð5Þwhere W¼A T AþB T BþC T Cþk2S T S,v¼A T dþB T qþC T pþk2S T k,and k is a suitable parameter.The precon-ditioned conjugate gradient method can be used to solve Eq.(5)and the solution x is the simulated value of the residual Pre res in Eq.(1).Results and discussionWefirst compare two methods in Table1.Pre ms is the CMIP5output.Three indices,mean absolute error(MAE), mean relative error(MRE)and root mean square error (RMSE),were calculated from the station value and downscaling value at each validation sample site.The formulations of these indexes are:MAE¼1NXk¼1;...;NPre simÀPre obsj j;MRE¼1NXk¼1;...;NPre simÀPre obsPre obs;RMSE¼ffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi1NXk¼1;...;NðPre simÀPre obsÞ2s;Results show that thefirst method is much better than the second from these three error indexes for both datasets. The accuracy of the downscaling method Pre sim2is worse than the result of CMIP5based on the validation dataset inTable1Comparison of two downscaling methodsValidate dataset Methods MAE(mm)MRE(%)RMSE(mm)China Pre sim175.2410119.78Pre sim2343.7195424.96Pre ms347.39105436.23Jiangxi Pre sim174.43497.27Pre sim2227.8213257.91Pre ms208.6712245.40Environ Earth SciJiangxi province.Scatter correlation plots for the observed and predicted precipitation (Fig.2)suggest that the first downscaling method estimates the annual mean precipita-tion quite reliably,as shown in Fig.2a and c.Many sim-ulation points are relatively far from the straight line of y ¼x using the second method.Underestimation of pre-cipitation is evident for the points from national scale and overestimation of precipitation is obvious for Pre sim2in Jiangxi province (see Fig.2b,d).The correlation coeffi-cients between predicted and observed values are 0.97for Pre sim1and 0.73for Pre sim2for the 10%of the total sampled points in China.The correlation coefficients are 0.75and 0.71for Pre sim1and Pre sim2,respectively,in Jiangxi province.Figure 3illustrates the downscaling results.We can see that due to the large errors in the original CMIP5output (Fig.3a),especially in southeastern of the Tibetan Plateau,the second method which used the CMIP5output to modify the residual is worse than the first one.The distribution trends in Fig.3a,c are similar,which show that the second downscaling method did not modify the errors produced by CMIP5.However,Fig.3b,which is produced by the first downscaling method,agrees well with the real situation.The reason of this is the function of the meteorological station information.The accuracy of the results mainly depends on the first step in the downscaling process.For Pre sim1,there are about 969points of CMIP5output that distribute evenly across China.While for Pre sim2,641meteorological observations are used for downscaling which distribute extremely uneven in China.The site density is higher in eastern China than in western China,which did not well reflect the characteristicsofFig.3The comparison of two downscaling methods,a original CMIP5output,b the first method Pre sim1,c the second method Pre sim2Environ Earth Sciprecipitation in China.The number and the distribution of the stations limit the accuracy of the downscaling results. The evenly distributed points of CMIP5results and the local regress method,GWR which considers the non-sta-tionarity of the precipitation,ensure the accuracy of the downscaling results in thefirst step.And further,we can see that original CMIP5output is not good enough for use, which means that the introduction of station data is nec-essary to modify the local details that implemented by HASM.The comparison of the two downscaling methods also reveals that the second step in the downscaling pro-cess,that is,the residual correction,is critical important for accuracy improvement.ConclusionPrecipitation,as a fundamental component of the global water cycle,is a key parameter in ecology,hydrology and meteorology.Precipitation data with accurate,high spatial resolution are crucial for improving our understanding of basin-scale hydrology.In this study,we compare two sta-tistical downscaling methods using two datasets.One dataset scatters randomly in the whole of China and another is located in Jiangxi province.As expected,the results show that GCMs cannot be used directly in climate change impact studies.In China,the second method Pre sim2 which establishes regression model based on the station data has a tendency to overestimate or underestimate the real values.The advantage of thefirst method is obvious, which fuses the mode data and station data effectively. Results also show the importance of the meteorological station data in the process of residual modification.China is such a vast area,precipitation is affected by many geo-graphical and topographical factors,which means that more accurate results can be obtained in different regions with different explanatory variables,especially for short time scales.Except the variables considered in this study, further researches should concentrate on more explanatory variables to gain more accurate results. 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