Risk Analysis on the Developed Economies' Sovereign Debt Crisis

前言学弟学妹们,当你们看到这篇复习资料的时候, 学长已经在文档上传的当天上午参加了国际金融的考试, 本复习资料主要针对对象为成都信息工程学院(CUIT)英语系大三学生, 且立足教材也基于托马斯·A ·普格尔(Thomas A. Pugel)先生所著国际金融英文版·第15版, 其他版本或者相似教材也可作为参考, 本资料的整理除了参考维基百科,百度百科以及MBA 智库百科,当然最重要的是我们老师的课件. 为了帮助同学们顺利通过考试, 当然是拿到高分, 希望此资料能够帮助你们节省时间, 达到高效复习的效果.外国语学院2011级,陈爵歌(Louis) 2014年1月6日晚于宿舍 Chapter 2Transnationality Index (跨国化指数)(TNI ) is a means of ranking multinational corporations that is employed by economists and politicians. (反映跨国公司海外经营活动的经济强度，是衡量海外业务在公司整体业务中地位的重要指标) Foreign assets to total assets(外国资产占总资产比)Foreign sales to total sales(海外销售占总销售)Foreign employees to total employees(外籍雇员占总雇员)跨国化指数的构成联合国跨国公司与投资司使用的跨国化指数由三个指标构成：国外资产对公司总资产的百分比；国外销售对公司总销售的百分比；国外雇员人数对公司雇员总人数的百分比关于TNI 的计算公式:International Economic Integration( 国际经济一体化)International economic integration refers to the extent and strength of real -sector and financial -sector linkages among national economies.(国际经济一体化是指两个或两个以上的国家在现有生产力发展水平和国际分工的基础上，由政府间通过协商缔结条约，让渡一定的国家主权，建立两国或多国的经济联盟，从而使经济达到某种程度的结合以提高其在国际经济中的地位)Real Sector(实际经济部门): The sector of the economy engaged in the production and sale of goods and services(指物质的、精神的产品和服务的生产、流通等经济活动。

高级经济师(建筑与房地产)个人自传范文As a passionate individual with a strong background in economics and a keen interest in the construction and real estate industry, it is my pleasure to share my journey asan Advanced Economist (Construction and Real Estate)through this personal statement.作为一个对经济学有着浓厚兴趣并在建筑与房地产行业拥有深厚背景的热情个体，我很高兴通过这篇个人自传来分享我作为一位高级经济师（建筑与房地产）的成长之路。

From a young age, I was captivated by the intricate dynamics of the economy and its impact on various sectors. This fascination led me to pursue a Bachelor's degree in Economics at a prestigious university. The comprehensive curriculum provided me with a solid foundation in microeconomics, macroeconomics, econometrics, and financial analysis.从小起，我就对经济的复杂动态以及其对各个领域的影响感到着迷。

这种迷恋推动着我进入一所享有声誉的大学攻读经济学学士学位。

全面的课程设置给予了我扎实的微观经济学、宏观经济学、计量经济学和财务分析基础。

During my undergraduate years, I realized that my passion lay not only in economics but specifically in the construction and real estate sector. I was fascinated by how economic principles intersected with the development of urban landscapes and housing markets. This led me to specialize in Construction Economics for my graduate studies.在本科期间，我意识到我的热情不仅仅在于经济学，更具体地说是在建筑与房地产行业。

世界卫⽣状况英⽂报告(1) The world's biggest killer and the greatest cause of ill-health and suffering across the globe is listed almost at the end of the International Classification of Diseases. It is given the code Z59.5 - extreme poverty. Poverty is the main reason why babies are not vaccinated, why clean water and sanitation are not provided, why curative drugs and other treatments are unavailable and why mothers die in childbirth. It is the underlying cause of reduced life expectancy, handicap, disability and starvation. Poverty is amajor contributor to mental illness, stress, suicide, family disintegration and substance abuse. Every year in the developing world 12.2 million children under 5 years die, most of them from causes which could be prevented for just a few US cents per child. They die largely because of world indifference, but most of all they die because they are poor. In the time it takes to read this sentence, somewhere in the world a baby has died it its mother s arms. For that mother, the message that her neighbour's infant will live is no consolation. It does not stem her grief to know that 8 out of 10 children in the world have been vaccinated against the five major killer diseases of childhood, or that globally since 1980 infant mortality has fallen by 25%, while overall life expectancy has increased by more than 4 years, to about 65 years. Beneath the heartening facts about decreased mortality and increasing life expectancy, and many other undoubted health advances, lie unacceptable disparities in health. The gaps between rich and poor, between onepopulation group and another, between ages and between the sexes, are widening. For most people in the world today every step of life, from infancy to old age, is taken under the twin shadows of poverty and inequity, and under the double burden of suffering and disease. For many, the prospect of longer life may seem more like a punishment than a gift. Yet by the end of the century we could be living in a world without poliomyelitis, a world without new cases of leprosy, a world without deaths from neonatal tetanus and measles. But today the money that some developing countries have to spend per person on health care over an entire year is just US $4 - less than the amount of small change carried in the pockets and purses of many people in developed countries. A person in one of the least developed countries in the world has a life expectancy of 43 years according to 1993 calculations. A person in one of the most developed countries has a life expectancy of 78 - a difference of more than a third of a century. This means a rich, healthy man can live twice as long as a poor, sick man. That inequity alone should stir the conscience of the world - but in some ofthe poorest countries the life expectancy picture is getting worse. In five countries life expectancy at birth is expected to decrease by the year 2000, whereas everywhere else it is increasing. In the richest countries life expectancy in the year 2000 will reach 79 years. In some of the poorest it will go backwards to 42 years. Thus the gap continues to widen between rich and poor, and by the year 2000 at least 45 countries are expected to have alife expectancy at birth of under 60 years. In the space of a day passengers flying from Japan to Uganda leave the country with the world s highest life expectancy - almost 79 years - and land in one with the world s lowest - barely 42 years. A day away by plane, but half a lifetime s difference on the ground. A flight between France and C?te d'Ivoire takes only a few hours, but it spans almost 26 years of life expectancy. A short air trip between Florida in the USA and Haiti represents a life expectancy gap of over 19 years. The purpose of the report is to highlight such inequities and to tackle the wider question: what are the global health priorities? It also tries to answer other crucially important questions. Which are the major diseases, the major causes of death, handicap, disability and diminution of the quality of life? Which conditions cause most misery, although they may not be fatal? Which countries, or communities within countries, have the greatest health needs? Where should health resources be targeted? The report, for the first time, has attempted to examine the burden of ill-health not just by disease, but also by age, as the impact of illness differs across the age spectrum. Where possible, the analysis of health status has been carried out for infants and children, adolescents, adults and the elderly. On the basis of the data available and considered to be reasonably reliable, ten leading causes of death, illness and disability have been identified. There is also an explanation of what WHO is doing to bridge the gaps in health, an attempt to assess health trends in the coming years, and an effort to chart a health future for mankind - a future in which a baby lives, not dies, in its mother's arms. Child health The number of children under 5 years who died in 1993 - more than 12.2 million - equals the entire populations of Norway and Sweden combined. Of such deaths in the developing world, the great majority could have been avoided if those countries enjoyed the same health and social conditions as the world s most developed nations. The gap between the developed and the developing world in terms of infant and child survival is one of the starkest examples of health inequity. The estimated global figure for mortality among children under 5 years in 1993 was 87 per 1 000 live births, anencouraging fall from rates of 215 during the period 1950-1955 and of 115 in 1980. Yet in parts of the developed world only 6 out of 1 000 liveborns die before reaching age 5, whereas in 16 of the least developed countries the rate is over 200 per 1 000, and in one country it is 320 per 1 000. Infant mortality - deaths of children under 1 year - varies from 4.8 per 1 000 live births to 161 - a 33-fold difference. The gap in infant mortality between developed and developing world narrowed by 50% during the years 1960-1993, from 113 to 54 per 1 000 live births. But at the same time the gap widened between least developed and developing countries. Malnutrition contributes substantially to childhood disease and death but often goes unrecognized as such. In 1990 more than 30% of the world s children under 5 years were underweight for their age. As many as 43% of children in the developing world - 230 million - have low height for their age. Micronutrient malnutrition is estimated to affect at least 2 billion people of all ages, but children are particularly vulnerable. As a result of iodine deficiency - a public health problem in 118 countries - at least 30 000 babies are stillborn each year and over 120 000 are born mentally retarded, physically stunted, deaf-mute or paralysed. A quarter of all children under age 5 in developing countries are at risk of vitamin A deficiency. There have been improvements in child health, and 1993 saw the number of children dying from vaccine-preventable diseases reduced by 1.3 million compared to 1985 - equal to the population of Trinidad and Tobago. Nevertheless, around 2.4 million children under 5 years are still dying every year from such diseases, particularly measles, neonatal tetanus, tuberculosis, pertussis, poliomyelitis and diphtheria. There are also worrying signs that recent immunization gains are being eroded or even reversed by economic and social conditions. Every year in the developing world acute respiratory infections, particularly pneumonia, kill more than 4 million children under 5 years - one death every 8 seconds - and are a leading cause of disability. They account for 30-50% of visits by children to health facilities everywhere. Significant reductions in mortality could be achieved by treating the underlying bacterial infections with low-cost antibiotics for a few days. Diarrhoeal diseases, resulting from unsafe water and poor sanitation coupled with poor food-handling practices, are responsible for a further 3 million deaths a year among children under age 5 in the developing world - one every 10 seconds - and are a graphic example of the deadly synergy of poverty and lack of knowledge. Worldwide there are an estimated 1.8 billion episodes of childhood diarrhoea annually. Many of the deaths from diarrhoea could be prevented by using oral rehydration salts, which cost just US $0.07 on average. Health of school-age children and adolescents Across the world some 2.3 billion people, about 40% of the total population, are aged under 20. Although teenagers and young adults are generally healthy, they are among the most vulnerable in terms of the diseases of society - poverty, exploitation, ignorance and risky behaviour. In squandering the health of its young, the world squanders its tomorrows. The behaviour patterns established in adolescence, highly influenced by the adult world, are of immense importance to an individual's life span and to public health as a whole. In many countries health services are not meeting adolescent needs, and there are concerns that education, training and jobs for the young are inadequate. Education is a vital, although often unrecognized, contributor to the well-being and sensible fertility practices of young people, because schooling is linked with health status and pregnancy rates. A blackboard and piece of chalk can be as influential as antibiotics and contraceptives in protecting health. Improving the education of adolescents in general, and girls in particular, is one of the most effective ways to promote equity, enhance development and protect health for all. The desire for sex and a fulfilling relationship are powerful driving forces for most young people, who at the same time are under pressure to engage in sexual relationships too early. Yet many young people are denied even basic knowledge about their own bodies or the means to protect themselves from unwanted pregnancy and sexually transmitted diseases (STDs). These diseases are most frequent in younger sexually active people, and appear to be increasing worldwide. The highest rates for notifiable STDs are generally seen in the 20-24 age group, followed by those aged 15-19 and 25-29. In nearly all parts of the world the peak age of infection is lower in girls than in boys. At the same time HIV and AIDS are having a devastating effect on young people. In many countries in the developing world, up to two-thirds of all new HIV infections are among people aged 15-24. Overall it is estimated that half the global HIV infections have been in people under 25 years - with 60% of infections of females occurring by the age of 20. Thus the hopes and lives of a generation, the breadwinners, providers and parents of the future, are in jeopardy. Many of the most talented and industrious citizens, who could build a better world and shape the destinies of the countries they live in, face tragically early death as a result of HIV infection. Other health dangers facing adolescents include tobacco, alcohol and other drug misuse, their exploitation as cheap and often illegal labour, and the worrying growth in the numbers of street children. Recent estimates suggest there may be as many as 100 million street children, at high risk of malnutrition, infectious diseases, STDs including HIV/AIDS, and criminaland sexual exploitation. The rise in accidents, violence and suicides involving young people in many parts of the world is a cause for deep concern.。

英语经济理论学习30题1. In a market economy, the allocation of resources is mainly determined by _____.A. government planningB. market forcesC. traditional customsD. random events答案：B。

本题主要考查市场经济中资源分配的决定因素。

选项A，政府规划在计划经济中起主导作用，而市场经济主要依靠市场力量。

选项C，传统习俗对资源分配的影响较小。

选项D，随机事件不是市场经济中资源分配的主要决定因素。

市场力量，如供求关系等，在市场经济中起着关键作用。

2. The law of demand states that, other things being equal, as the price of a good rises, the quantity demanded _____.A. risesB. fallsC. remains unchangedD. increases sharply答案：B。

本题考查需求定律。

根据需求定律，在其他条件不变的情况下，商品价格上升，需求量会下降。

选项A 价格上升需求量上升不符合需求定律。

选项C 需求量保持不变也不符合。

选项D 需求量大幅增加同样不符合需求定律。

3. Supply refers to the _____.A. amount of a good that producers are willing and able to sell at a given priceB. total amount of a good that exists in the economyC. amount of a good that consumers are willing to buyD. amount of a good that the government wants to produce答案：A。

STEEPLE分析(SPESTLE Analysis)STEEPLE分析STEEPLE是以下因素英文单词的缩写，社会/人口（Social/demographic）、技术（Technological）、经济（Economic）、环境/自然（Environmental/Natural）、政治（Political）、法律（Legal）、道德（Ethical）。

SPESTLE AnalysisSPESTLE:∙S = Social (e.g. changes in social behaviour that might impact product / service selection);∙T = Technological (e.g. rapid development in cheaper components that will affect product prices or performance);∙ E = Economic (e.g. non-Euro exchange rates affecting key imported supplies);∙ E = Environmental (e.g. waste re-cycling legislation and penalties on producers);∙P = Political (e.g. government directives on certification or subcontracting);∙L = Legal (e.g. changes in employment laws)∙ E = European (or International) (e.g. World Trade Organisatio n agreements affecting market dynamics and competitors)A summary of the STEEPLE Analysis can be used to check the reasonableness and validity of your overriding Business Strategy and Targets. Any resultant issues should then be turned into an action plan that will describe how and when you are going to resolve such matters or mitigate the anticipated risks. For example, this might provide the rationale for why and on what basis you need additional credit from your funding providers. This analysis of the external environment, should be considered and applied when compiling, monitoring and reporting your Business & Financial Plan.Analysis of the external environment: identification of issues and risks 'STEEPLE' analysisThis analysis examines the context in which the Authority operates. It identifies some of the key issues that exist (or are emerging) in the external environment and suggests how these will or might impact on future strategy and resources. These are listed under seven main headings (factors):NoSO1 Major demographic changes in local communities can impacton Hampshire’s risk profile and therefore theeffectiveness of our IRMP and actions.Continually assess the impact on of bothstrategic and local plans (especiallydesignated major development areas MDAs) andidentify the scale and timing of anyimplications for our IRMP and associatedactions.Review our internal processes to ensure that alllocal planning consultation documents arereviewed (at both SMT and Group Managementlevels) and that our comments are fed back to therelevant stakeholders.SO2 Increases in the number of older and other vulnerablepeople living alone in the community (including thoseunder ‘care in the community’ arrangements) willcontinue to pose a specific risk to our plans to reducefire deaths and injuries.Ensure, by working in close collaboration withpartner organisations and other agencies, thatour information on these ‘at risk’ groups isup to date and that our priorities for action(including the targeting of home safety visits)are regularly reviewed.SO3 National increase in the incidence of arson particularlyin relation to vehicles and schools. Both pose aconsiderable risk to our plans to reduce arson. In thecase of vehicles, the increase is likely to beattributable, at least partly, to the impact of EUenvironmental regulations and the cost of disposal ofscrap vehicles.Through careful analysis we will target thosesegments of the population most likely to startsuch fires; and, working with partner agencies,remove or reduce the opportunity for suchincidents.STEEPLE analysis - technologicalRefNoIssue/Risk Strategic Action LevelTE1 Transition from local control rooms to the new regionalcontrol centres should realise a significant improvementin the information and communications technologies (ICT)available for mobilising resources effectively. The netcost to the Authority of the new centres is currently notknown. Additionally, we need to maintain the capacity andresilience of the Authority’s existing and increasinglyredundant control room systems. To date a fully-costednational business case has not be produced by ODPM.Ensure, by active participation in the projectplanning and specification processes for the newcontrol centres, that the Authority’s ownmobilising policies and management informationneeds are capable of being satisfied by the newcontrol centres; that indications of future netcosts / savings are made available as soon aspossible for financial planning purposes.Ensure, so far as is possible and practicable,that arrangements remain robust for thecontinued maintenance and support of theexisting control room’s ICT– particularly thatsupport provided by third-party suppliers andcontractors.TE2Reliance on ICT for the day?to?day delivery andmanagement of services is at an unprecedented level –As the Authority seeks to exploit opportunitiesand tangible benefits for the improved deliveryand likely to increase with further technological innovation and implementation. Major and/or prolonged failures in our ICT infrastructure and critical applications could have serious and potentially costlyimplications. of services through ICT application development (including meeting expectations/targets for e-government), ensure that increased investment is made in improving both the resilience and performance of the Service’s ICTinfrastructure.Ensure that sound maintenance and support agreements are in place with all third-party suppliers and contractors of our ICT services so that our business continuity plans remain robust and can be regularly tested.STEEPLE analysis - environmentalRefNoIssue/Risk Strategic Level ActionEN1Weather-related incidents (eg flooding, storms) andmajor chemical/biological incidents can have a sudden anddramatic impact on our resources - both in terms of ourability to respond to them and the resultant financialcost.Regularly review and test plans for dealing withsuch incidents - including, where appropriate,participation in realistic exercises with allother relevant civil protection agencies.Based on local experience and from informationgathered from other fire and rescue authorities,ensure that the Authority’s own businesscontingency plans and financial reserves /balances are assessed annually and that theprovision made is soundly based and realistic.EN2 Given the Authority’s role in helping to protect theenvironment, it would be highly embarrassing, damagingto our reputation, and potentially costly in financialterms, if our own operational and management practicescontravened environmental legislation and expected goodpractice.Conduct an environmental/sustainability auditof our day-to-day operational and managementarrangements (particularly those relating topolicies and procedures on our own sites) so toensure that we eliminate any poor practices andthat the Authority can be regarded as one thatactively promotes environmentally sustainableactivities wherever possible. Repeat theseaudits at three-yearly intervals.STEEPLE analysis - economicRefNoIssue Risk Strategic Level ActionEC1 Now that the Authority is a ‘precepting authority’ ithas to ensure that it makes adequate provision (iereserves and balances) in its budget for the financialconsequences of the strategic and volatile riskshighlighted in this analysis, those identified in otherbusiness plans, and for any areas of uninsured risks.Each year the Authority will assess the adequacyof its reserves and balances based oninformation contained in the risk register,other business plans and specific reports(including, in particular, the forecastprovision required for the firefighters’Failure to do so, could result in the Authority having to resort to: major cuts in its budget and/or unplanned borrowing and/or subsequent and unacceptably high increases in Council Tax levels. In turn, this would increase the risk of Government intervention and ‘capping’ (leading to further unplanned cuts inexpenditure). pension scheme).Insurance arrangements (cover and premiums) will continue to be formally re-tendered every three years and selectively market-tested annually.EC2 The Authority, in common with all local authorities, isexpected to demonstrate that it strives for Best Valuein delivering its services to the public and there areclear expectations (targets) to achieve year-on-yearefficiency savings. Failure to respond positively to thisexpectation could result in Government intervention.As part of its budget planning and monitoringprocesses, the value of any efficiency savings- both “cashable” and “non-cashable” will belogged in reports and a record of the cumulativeimpact on resources will be maintained.EC3 As with all public sector bodies we are required to ensurethat public funds are managed with probity and to guardagainst fraud and misuse and to ensure best value isachieved.We will continue to ensure that sound Internal(and workplace) audits processes are in placeand that all budget holders and managers arefully aware of the Authority’s financialregulations and codes of practice relating tocontracts.STEEPLE analysis - politicalRefNoIssue/Risk Strategic Level ActionPO1 The Government’s expectations for greater collaborationbetween fire and rescue authorities at the regional level- through the Regional Management Boards (RMBs) - willhave an impact on both the approach to and way we manageand deliver some key services (including regional controlcentres mentioned above). Failure to fully embrace andinfluence the development of the ‘regional agenda’ couldlead to the Authority becoming politically isolated andvulnerable to decisions made that are not in its bestinterests.The Authority is already leading on developinga regional approach to human resourcemanagement, and is actively involved in keyaspects of the planning processes for the newregional control centres.This level of engagement - and opportunities toexert further influence by both Members andsenior officers - needs to be sustained andexploited so that the Authority can bereasonably assured that its best interests arepromoted and any risks to it are minimised.PO2 Members of the Authority are also members of one of thethree constituent authorities (Hampshire County Council;Portsmouth City Council; Southampton City Council); someare also members of district councils and other publicbodies (eg the Police Authority). As local councillorsthey will also be representing the interests of theelectorate in their Division/Ward. It is important torecognise that this will, on occasion, cause inevitabletensions for Members who may need to satisfy or respondProposals for change (arising from the IRMP)that directly impact on the delivery of servicesin local communities need to be well presentedand the benefits of change (and itsimplications) communicated effectively duringperiods of consultation. Members will need to besatisfied that local concerns have been properlyanticipated and taken into account in presentingbusiness cases for any proposals for change soto different and sometimes opposing views/priorities when considering their stance on policy decisions –particularly those affecting their local area. These tensions could, understandably, inhibit progress on some aspects of the modernisation agenda.that they can have confidence in the thoroughness of the consultation process when decisions need to be made.PO3 Failure to fully engage in local Crime and Disorder Panelsand Local Strategic Partnerships (LSPs) could result inthe Authority missing out on opportunities (and sourcesof additional funding) that could directly contribute tothe achievement of its corporate aims – particularlythose relating to prevention and protection actions.There is a clear expectation on all local authorities toexploit the potential benefits and economies of scale oftaking cross-cutting initiatives and partnership workingto improve the delivery of services to the public. TheAuthority would receive understandable criticism(particularly through the CPA process) if there is littleevidence of collaborative activity.The Authority is becoming a more active memberof the Hampshire and Isle of Wight LocalAuthorities Association and in local strategicpartnerships and panels. There is scope howeverto increase the level of engagement andcontribution made by Members of the Authorityand officers (particularly the new GroupManagers). Specific IRMP actions (such as theproposed pilot of deploying a vehicle and crewat the Popley Fields Community Centre,Basingstoke) will increasingly emerge astangible examples of the benefits ofcollaborative working.STEEPLE analysis - legalRefNoRisk/Issue Strategic Level ActionLE1The Fire and Rescue Services Act 2004 places on astatutory footing ‘other activities’ the Service hastaken on over the last 50 years since the previouslegislation was put in place. These go beyondfirefighting and include rescue from road trafficaccidents, responding to serious environmental disastersand the new terrorist threat. The scope for litigationbeing taken against the Authority has therefore widened.Direct experience gained from the muchpublicised case of ‘Capital & Counties vHampshire County Council, 1990’ serves as aconstant reminder of the potential andsignificant impact of litigation – and theconsequences of authorities standing their owninsurable risks.In conjunction with its external insuranceadvisers and brokers, the Authority annuallyreviews the adequacy of its insurancearrangements and the provision for uninsuredrisks.LE2New legislation – notably with the enactment of theRegulatory Reform Order (RRO) - will change the emphasisof the fire and rescue service’s role in respect of firesafety inspection and enforcement. The Authority needsto ensure that it has taken the necessary action to changeits organisational and management arrangements tosatisfy the requirements of the RRO. Failure to do so,will mean that our policies, plans and actions aim at‘Protecting’ Hampshire will fail to deliver measurableIn anticipation of the RRO, organisational andmanagerial structures (and roles) have alreadybeen reviewed and implemented.A new fire safety risk database and managementinformation system is being developed andimplemented during 2004/5 and 2005/06.Training programmes for fire safety officers areresults. in place to ensure that we are well placed torespond positively to shift of emphasis towardsself-inspection/compliance (on the part ofbuilding owners/users) and the need to be moreproactive in an 'audit-type' role and in theenforcement of offenders.LE3The Freedom of Information Act 2000 has significantimplications for the way all public authorities manageinformation – both in hard copy and electronic formats.From January 2005, members of the public have the rightto request access to any information held by the Authorityon any subject provided it is not restricted on thegrounds of security or the Data Protection Act. There arefinancial penalties as well as public embarrassment fornon-compliance.The Authority has made good progress inpreparing to meet the requirements of the Act andhad it Publication Scheme in place well beforethe relevant deadline. A policy commitment tocomply with the requirements of the Act has beenapproved by the Authority.Work is continuing to improve generalhousekeeping in information management and toimprove systems of electronic document storageand retrieval. Retention policies for differentcategories of information are continually beingreviewed. Key personnel in each functional areaare being given training to ensure that theyfully understand the requirements andimplications of the Act.STEEPLE analysis - ethicalET1 As a public body we are expected to embrace excellentethical and moral standards in all that we do. We are notonly expected to follow the letter of the law, but alsouphold the spirit of the law by having in place policiesand practices that are beyond reproach. Not to do so wouldleave the Authority exposed to criticism on a number offronts.Our employment policies and practices arecontinually being updated and enhanced to ensurethat we do all we can to improve fairness anddignity in the workplace; and, so that we willbe better placed to achieve the ambitiousequality targets, set by the Government, forfire and rescue authorities.During 2004/05 and 2005/06 will be reviewing ourprocurement polices and practices (both in thelight of the Government’s national procurementstrategy and in the context of collaborativeactions at regional level). We will do all we canto ensure sound and ethical purchasingarrangements for goods and services.The Standards Committee ensures that Authority’s Standing Orders and Code of Conduct relatingto Members is strictly applied and reviewed.。

高顿财经FRM定量分析习题测评（二）1. A bank uses a continuously-compounded annual interest rate of 5% in one of its risk models. What is the equivalent interest rate the bank should use if it converts to semi-annual compounding in the model?A. 4.94%B. 5.00%C. 5.06%D, 5.12%2. An analyst is looking to combine two stocks with annual returns that are jointly normally distributed and uncorrelated. Stock A has a mean return of 7% and a standard deviation of returns of 20%; Stock B has a mean return of 12% and a standard deviation of returns of 15%. If the analyst combines the stocks into an equally weighted portfolio, what is the probability that the portfolio return over the next year will be greater than 12%?A. 42.07%B. 44.32%C. 55.67%D. 57.93%3. An investor holds a portfolio of stocks A and B. The current value, estimated annualexpected return, and estimated annual standard deviation of returns are summarized in the table below:Stock A Stock BCurrent Value(USD) 40,000 60,000Expected Return 8% 9%Standard Deviation 16% 20%If the correlation coefficient of the returns on stock A and B is 0.3, then the expected value of the portfolio at the end of this year, within two standard deviations, will be between:A. USD 69,600 and USD 130,400.B. USD 71,800 and USD 145,400.C. USD 78,200 and USD 139,000.D. USD 81,400 and USD 135,800.4. An economic analyst has calculated the probabilities of three possible states for the economy next year: growth, normal, and recession. A bank analyst has estimated the possible returns on two stocks, A and B, in each of the three scenarios shown in the following table:State Probability Return of Stock A Return of Stock BGrowth 0.20 0.30 0.20normal 0.60 0.10 0.10Recession 0.20 -0.20 -0.10Given that the standard deviations of the estimated returns on stocks A and B are 16.0% and 9.8%, respectively, what is the covariance of the estimated returns on stocks A and B?A. -0.0187B. -0.0156C. 0.0156D. 0.01785. You are examining a pool of senior secured loans and observe that 10% of the loans are delinquent in their interest payments. The outstanding balance on 60% of the delinquent loans exceeds the Value of the collateral pledged to secure them and the outstanding balance on 30% of the non-delinquent loans exceeds the value of the collateral pledged to secure them. If you randomly select a loan from the pool and observe that its collateral value is less than the outstanding balance, what is the probability that the loan is delinquent?A. 6%B. 9%C. 18%D. 54%QUESTIONS 6 AND7 REFER TO THE FOLLOWING INFORMATIONA bank analyst run an ordinary least squares regression of the daily returns of the stock on the daily returns on the S&P 500 index using the last 750 trading days of data. The regression results are summarized in the following tables:Predictor Coefficient Standard Error t-statistic p-value Constant 0.0561 0.00294 19.0971 0.00000 Return on the S&P 500 1.2054 0.00298 404.25225 0.00000 2R=87.86%Analysis of VarianceSourceDegree ofFreedom Sum ofSquaresMeanSquareF-statistic p-valueRegression 1 11.4393911.43939163419.87971 0.00000 Residual Error 749 0.054250.00007Total 750 0.446776. The bank analyst wants to test the null hypothesis that the beta of the portfolio is 1.2 ata 5% significance level. According to the regression results, the analyst would:A. Reject the null hypothesis because the t-statistic is greater than 1.64.B. Fail to reject the null hypothesis because the t-statistic is greater than 1.64.C. Reject the null hypothesis because the p-value is greater than 5%.D. Fail to reject the null hypothesis because the p-value is greater than 5%.7. A colleague of the bank analyst suggested adding the returns on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index as an additional explanatory variable. The new regression results show that the 2R increased and the adjusted 2R decreased. What conclusion can be drawn from these results?A. The increased 2R gives an inflated estimate of how well the regression fits the data.B. The decreased adjusted 2R suggests that the coefficient of the returns on the DJIA isnot significant.C. The increased 2R indicates an improvement in the regression.D. The decreased adjusted 2R suggests the existence of omitted variable bias in thisregression.8. An operational risk analyst is attempting to analyze a bank's loss severity distribution. However, historical data on operational risk losses is limited. Which of the following is the best way to address this issue?A. Generate additional data using Monte Carlo simulation and merge it with the bank'soperational losses.B. Estimate the parameters of a Poisson distribution to model the loss severity ofoperational losses.C. Estimate relevant probabilities using expected loss information that is published by creditrating agencies.D. Merge external data from other banks with bank's internal data after making appropriatescale adjustments.9. You are conducting an ordinary least squares regression of the returns Y and X as Y=a+b*Y+ε based on the past three year's daily adjusted closing price data. Prior to conducting the regression, you calculated the following information from the data:Sample covariance 0.000181Sample Variance of Stock X 0.000308Sample Variance of Stock Y 0.000525Sample mean return of stock X -0.03%Sample mean return of stock Y0.03%What is the slope of the resulting regression line? A. 0.35 B. 0.45 C. 0.59 D. 0.7710. A risk analyst is estimating the regression X R =α+Y β*Y R +Z β*Z R +ε, where X R is the return of stock X, Y R is the return of stock Y, and Z R is the return of stock Z, using 20 years of daily return data. He wants to test the null hypothesis that Y β=0 and Z β=0 with a 95% confidence level by using an F-test. Critical values of the F-statistic at the 95% confidence level are given in the following table:1F = 3.8415 2F = 2.9957 3F =2.6049If the t-statistics for Y β and Z β are 2.34 and 1.64, respectively, and the correlation between the two t-statistics is 0.3. What conclusion can the risk analyst infer from the regression results?A. The risk analyst should reject the null hypothesis since the F-statistic is more than 2.9957B. The risk analyst should fail to reject the null hypothesis since the F-statistic is less than 2.9957C. The risk analyst should reject the null hypothesis since the F-statistic is more than 3.8415D. The risk analyst should fail to reject the null hypothesis since the F-statistic is less than 3.841511. An analyst is considering an investment in stock DKR and has gathered the following information:Expected return of DKR 8.00% Risk-free rate2.50% Standard deviation of DKR returns14.75%Standard deviation of market returns 13.50%Correlation of DKR return and market returns 0.76The analyst believes DKR is fairly valued according to the CAPM. Based on this information, what is the expected return of the market portfolio?A. 9.12%B. 10.43%C. 12.19%D. 15.12%12. A quantitative analyst used a simulation to forecast the S&P 500 index value at the endof the year with an index value of 1,800 at the beginning of the year. He generated 200 scenarios and calculated the average index value at year-end to be 1,980 with a 95% confidence interval of [1,940,2,020]. In order to improve the accuracy of the forecast, the quantitative analyst increased the number of scenarios to attain a new 95% confidence interval of [1,970,1,990] with the same sample mean and the same sample standard deviation. How many scenarios were used to generate this result?A. 400B. 800C. 1,600D. 3,20013. A risk manager is examining the relationship between portfolio managers' years ofworking experience and the returns of their portfolios. He performs an ordinary leastsquares (OLS) regression of last year's portfolio returns (Y) on the portfolio managers' years of working experience (X) and provides the following scatter plot to his supervisor: Which of the following assumptions of the OLS regression has most likely been violated?A. Perfect multicollinearityB. Expectation of zero for the error termsC. Normally distributed error termsD. Homoskedasticity。

Workplace OHS & Risk AssessmentRecommended topics for review for Final Exam School of Safety Engineering | CUMT Spring 20201.balanced society, balanced life style.a balanced society：在平衡的社会，there is a strong respect for the community, there also a strong emphasis on personal freedom and the opportunity to pursue and fulfill individual potential.在尊重社区的同时，也高度重视个人自由以及追求和发挥个人潜能的机会。

freedom for the individual, equality, tolerance and a strong sense of mutual trust。

以个人自由，平等，宽容和强烈的相互信任感为核心价值观in workplaces, a safe work environment is a “given”. Safety: A Non-negotiable Priority安全：不可商议的优先事项balanced life style：1. Core value: to maintain a balanced work and family life. 保持平衡的工作和家庭生活，工作中Work culture: team-oriented, formal and based on open dialogue between management and employees.以团队为导向，正式，并基于管理层和员工之间的公开对话为核心文化，2.In-job training and safety culture、Well-compensated workers 有在职培训、浓厚的安全文化、不错的工资保证了工人的健康安全3.people in Denmark devote more time than OECD average to socialize with friends, family,sports and hobbies。

《国际经贸高级英语(精读与翻译)》参考答案罗汉主编key to ExercisesUnit OneⅠ/1. the accumulation of physical capital indispensable to economic growth2. to import advanced equipment and know-how from abroad3. license trade accounting for 90 per cent of the total volumeof the world s trade of technology4. lack of human capital reflected in economic development5. the great impact of high technology on the adjustment of industries6. key factors driving economic growth7. the transformation from an agricultural nation into an industrial one8. the tangible and intangible factors making up the total factor productivity growth9. the improvement of educational systems lurking in technological progress10. the ratio of capital to labour in this industry11. expand the labour force and increase its education and training12. the role of the R&D department in the operations of multinational corporations13. a study report analyzing variations in technical progress across a large number of countries14. to incorporate quantity and models into economic analysis15. great gap in incomes between developed and developing nationsⅡ/1. Many economists attributed the rapid economic growth rate of someland desiring areas, such as HongKong and Singapore, to the enhancement of educational levels of their population. Based on this, they drew their conclusion that knowledge is the key to their economic development.2. In the 1960s, on the basis of importing much sophisticated technology andknow how from developed countries, Japan expanded its e conomy in large scales, enabling its economy to keep up with the most advanced level of the world in 20 years.3. The development of new economic theories has raised many subjects to statistics. For example, high rates of school enrollment may not translate into high rates of economic growth if the quality of education is poor, or if educated people are not employed at their potential because of distortion in the labor market.4. In 1994, after a long period of investigation and research, the famous economist Krugman presented a study report analyzing variations in technical progress across a large number of countries. He said in the report that the economic development of Asia was not based on the progress of technology, so the economy contained much foam in it. Three years later, the sudden break out of southeast Asian Economic Crisis verified his conclusion.5. People haven't hitherto come up with an ideal method to put a value on science and technology, for it is intangible to some degree.Ⅲ. In the information age, knowledge, rather than physical assets or resources, is the key to competitiveness. This is as true for the obviously konwledge intensive sectors,such as software or biotechnology, as it is for industrial age manufacturing companies or utilities.For the knowledge intensive sectors,knowledge which feeds through from research and development to innovative products and processes is the critical element. Butwith industrial age manufacturing companies or utilities, using knowledge aboutcustomers to improve service is what counts.What is new about attitudes to knowledge today is the recognition of the need to harness, manage and use it like any other asset. This raises issues not only of appropriate processes and systems, but also of how to account for knowledge in the balance sheet.In future, the value of intellectual capital will be more widely measured and reported. The measurement and reporting of key performance indicators related to intellectual capital will become a more widespread practice among major organizations, completing the financial accounts.Unit TwoⅠ/1. to crack the FORTUNE Global 5002. a collective enterprise supervised by workers3. be pessimistic about the factory s ability to absorb technology4. the incorporation (mix)of foreign management practices and Chinese nationalism5. a leading guru of Japanese quality control6. to transfer the management concepts to new acquisitions7. the dominant position in China s refrigerator market8. a case study of the management art9. to let shoddy products released to the market in large quantities10. to set the stage for the renovation of the enterprise11. the wholly-owned companies and holding companies under the control of the parent company12. to soak up the laid-offs released from state owned companies13. to sell modern refrigerator making technolog y to the factory14. the state-owned enterprises accounting for the majority of industrial enterprises15. the development of domestic pillar industriesⅡ/1. Although this joint venture has been growing very fast, it still has a long way to go to realize its goal of cracking the Fortune Global 500.2. Haier once tried to place the sample products in sight of the assembly line workers to improve the quality of the products, but now it has outgrown thispractice.3. In the early 1980s, out of every 1000 urban Chinese households, there were only two or three that owned refrigerators. With the enhancement of people's livingstandard, refrigerators have become the first big item in the households buy of many families.4. The company has 70 subsidiaries around the world, one third of which arewholly-owned, with their products sold to 108 countries and areas. In recent years, it has averaged an increase of 50% a year in revenues.5. The rapid development of collective and private enterprises will help to soak up the labour force released from poorly operated state-owned enterprises and to relieve the nation's employment burden.Ⅲ. Many managers feel uncomfortable if not actively involved in accomplishing a given job. This is said to result from a“low tolerance for ambiguity”. The manager desires to know what is happening on a moment by moment basis. A wise manager should know clearly what work must be delegated, and train employees to do it. If after training, an employee is truly unable to perform the work, then replacement should be considered. A manager should avoid reverse delegation.This happens when an employee brings a decision to the manager that the employee should make. An acceptance of reverse delegation can increase the manager'swork load and the employee is encouraged to become more dependent on the boss. Unit ThreeⅠ/1. to issue a vast amount of short term government bonds2. plenty of capital inflow to the security market in the recent period3. the preference of investors to the inflation protected treasury bonds4. to decrease the risk by hedging5. diversified portfolio6. to reach more than 50% of the initial public offering7. dilution of securities caused by the distribution of shares8. the trigger event that causes the imploding on market index9. short maturity U.S. government and corporate fixed income secu r ities10. real assets like commodities and real estate11. to avoid insider-trading charges through legal windows12. some trigger events that will charge the interest rate in the capital market13. reflect investors' wary view of the market14. shepherd the funds every step of the way15. the agriculture bonds that come back in the stock marketⅡ/1. During the past several months, the interest rate and the exchange rate have fluctuated greatly, which has brought enormous loss to many investors. But this institution overrode the adverse factors in the market and still obtained a big profit by wise hedging investments.2. The diversification of portfolio can decrease the non-systematic riskof individual securities in the portfolio efficiently, but it is unable to remove the systematic risk of the market.3. During the period of high inflation in capitalist countries between the late 1960s and late 1970s, many people tended to convert their money incomes into goods or real estate.4. One of the Bundesbank council members said that the central bank is under no immediate pressure to cut interest rates and that it needs more time to study the economic data before making a decision.5. Many experts consider that the interest rates would trend higher, because, although it is true that there is not much inflation now, wage inflation is evidentand the entire economy is in such high gear right now.Ⅲ. For all the similarities between the 1929 and 1987 stock market crashes, there are one or two vital differences. The most important of these was the reaction of the financial authorities. In 1929, the US Federal Reserve reacted to the crash by raising interest rates, effectively clamping down on credit. This caused manyotherwise healthy companies to fail simply due to cash flow problems. If onecompany failed leaving debts, many others down the line would meet the same fate. In 1987, the authorities were quick to lower interest rates and to ensure that ample credit was made available to help institutions overcome their difficulties. There were no widespread business failures and, more importantly, the economy did not enter another depression. There was a period of recession(milder than a 1930s-style depression), but this was largely due to a resurgence of inflation. The sharp interest rate cuts, and excessively hasty financial deregulation, pushed inflation higher, which in turn forced governments to reverse earlier interest rate cuts, prompting an economic slow-down.Unit FourⅠ/1. to rely heavily on monetary flexibility to reign in inflation2. to execute tight monetary policy3. to implement fiscal policy in the form of social insurance and national taxes4. to pour into economically expanding regions5. to replace their individual currencies with a single currency6. to bode well for the future of the EMU7. to control government deficits to meet Maastricht conditions8. the overvalued currency as a main barrier to export9. to refrain from dumping surplus goods abroad10. the influence of integrated economy on capital flow11. the balance-of-payments deficit warranting the devaluation policy adopted by the monetary authority12. to eliminate the economic costs associated with holding multiple currencies13. costs that must be taken into account when estimating profits14. to take advantage of the small difference between the central bank's pegged rates and market rates15. to hedge against risks coming from volatile exchange ratesⅡ/1. Ironically, Europe will see an increase in economic specialization along with the European unification process.2. The European Central Bank will face a dilemma when two member countries both badly need certain monetary policies to regulate their economies but the policies they need are of opposite directions.3. A person will be called an“arbitrageur"if, to gain profits, he takes advantage of the different exchange rates on different markets, or at different times on a same market.4. The national economies of many European countries have recently been forced to fit Maastricht conditions and arbitrary deadlines, and such actions have created unnecessary economic turmoils.5. As a central bank, the Federal Reserve System currently uses its control over the money supply to keep the national inflation rates low and to expand national economies in recession.Ⅲ. Even before construction of the euro is complete, governments can point to one notable success. The past year has seen extraordinary turmoil in global financial markets. Rich country stock markets and currencies have not been spared. Yet Europe has been, comparatively speaking, a safe haven, Intra-European movements in exchange rates have been tiny. This is something that the euro-11 governments had committed themselves to, but their success could not have been taken for granted a year ago. The fact is, at a time of unprecedented financial turbulence, theforeign exchange markets regarded the promise to stabilize intra-European exchange rates as credible. Currencies have held steady and interest rates have converged: it augurs well for the transition to the new system.Unit FiveⅠ/1. a major engine of growth in Asian economy2. the structural weakness in South Korea's financial system3. to execute economic policies which adhere to IMF-aid programs4. a sharp decline in the price competitiveness of that country's exports5. the slump in the Japanese stock market6. a more advantageous position than its rivals in terms of price competitiveness7. trade disputes sparked by price distortion8. the financial panic triggered by the devaluation of Japanese yen9. to stabilize the recently turbulent capital flows10. the advantageous position of industrial countries in the world trade system11. the serious welfare losses for all nations resulted from a full scale trade war12. a USD 58 billion bailout which South Korea was forced to seek from the IMF13. the great expenditure caused by huge government institutions14. technology intensive and knowledge intensive products with high competitiveness15. the country's economy which remains mired in recessionⅡ/1. While the Asian economy regained stability, the possibility of devaluation of the HongKong dollar will be an important variable affecting the recurrence of similar economic crises in Asia.2. In order to connect the improvement of price competitiveness brought about bythe currency depreciation to a better balance of payment, internationalcooperation is as essential as are internal reforms.3. The Asian financial crisis owing to the heavily indebted banking systems,excessive government spending and over reliance on foreign loans has damaged the world economy seriously.4. Some Japanese companies began to fall out of their over reliance on loansfrom the banking system, focusing on profits and cutting out wasteful spending.5. Erupted in July 1997, the Asian financial crisis reflected the defectsin the fragile financial systems of Asian countries.Ⅲ. Like death and taxes, international economic crises cannot be avoided. Theywill continue to occur as they have for centuries past. But the alarmingly rapid spread of the 1997 Asian crisis showed these economies' vulnerability to investor skittishness. Unfortunately, there is no international“911" that emerging markets can dial when facing economic collapse. Neither the IMF nor a new global financial architecture will make the world less dangerous. Instead, countries that want toavoid a rerun of the devastating 1997—98 crisis must learn to protect themselves. And liquidity is the key to financial self help. A country that has substantial international liquidity—large foreign currency reserves and a ready source offoreign currency loans—is less likely to be the object of a currency attack. Substantial liquidity also enables a country already under a speculative siege to defend itself better and make more orderly financial adjustments. The challenge is to find ways to increase liquidity at reasonable cost.Unit SixⅠ/1. capital flight depleting a country s foreign exchange reserves2. domestic hyperinflation caused by devaluation3. to adopt expansionary fiscal policy to increase national income4. be faced with the danger of increasingly shrinking aggregate demand5. capital market harassed by liquidity trap6. to rule out the possibility of massive speculative activities7. to drive down domestic prices at the expense of economic stagnation8. the international gold standard system characterized by fixed exchange rates9. the pressure of hot money flow on currencies10. the neoclassical theory centering on the spontaneous adjustments of market11. intelligent policy makers who will use variable means to achieve economic goals12. flexible fiscal and financial policies that can help the economy out of depression13. the different dilemmas that the developing countries and the mature economies are faced with14. to sacrifice full employment to achieve high output rate15. the increased demand for this currency that will lead to the devaluation of another currencyⅡ/1. The economic turmoil in that country made the central bank and the treasury department take each other to task, which reflected the importance of the collaboration of a country s monetary and fiscal policies.2. The government has now slipped into such a dilemma that if it wants toimprove its balance of payment, it will need to lower the exchange rate, but to lower the exchange rate will lead to inflation.3. Although devaluation will magnify exports, it can also lead to the increasing foreign curren cy denominated debt;it can even cause the collapse of people's confidence in the government. Therefore, the government did not dare to adopt the devaluation policy without careful consideration.4. The increase of foreign currency denominated debt is not necessarilythe indispensable cost of economic development. Because, although it may promote economic growth in the short run, it will increase the burden of domestic enterprises and lead to imbalanced balance of payment in the long run.5. Major capitalist countries had been seeing gold standard as a symbol of strong economic power, but they were forced to give it up for good during the Great Depression.Ⅲ. Troubled Asian Economies have turned out to have many policy and institutional weaknesses. But if America or Europe should get into trouble next year or the year after, we can be sure that in retrospect analysts will find equally damning things to say about Western values and institutions. And it is very hard to make the case that Asian policies were any worse in the 1990s than they had been in previous decades, so why did so much go so wrong so recently?The answer is that the world became vulnerable to its current travails not because economic policies had not been reformed, but because they had. Around the worldcountries responded to the very real flaws in post Depression policy regimes bymoving back toward a regime with many of the virtues of pre-Depressionfree-market capitalism. However, in bringing back the virtues of old fashioned capitalism, we also brought back some of its vices, most notably a vulnerability both toinstability and sustained economic slumps.Unit SevenⅠ/1. government reforms compatible with a country's development program2. lay emphasis on the resolution of government involvement3. the state induced transfer of wealth from the rich to the less fortunate4. to finance the development of public sectors5. a sharp decrease in the subsidy expenditure of a welfare state6. to minimize the public expenditure of this country7. the growth rate of gross fixed asset formation8. heavy interest obligations resulting from huge interest payments9. a certain share of shadow economy in the government performance10. to avoid increasing government spending and lowering the economic growth rates11. the benchmark to assess the scope for reducing the size of government12. be of growing importance in government reforms13. to facilitate adjustment to the new economic environment14. the detrimental short-run effects of reforms on some groups15. the protectionist and competitive devaluation policies administered by some industrial countriesⅡ/1. Over the years, opinions about the role of state have been changing, andpolitical institutions have been changing as well, to accommodate the demand for more state involvement in the economy.2. It's generally believed that even if welfare states cut down the hugewelfare expenditures, they can't necessarily solve their serious economic problems such as large budget deficits and hyperinflation.3. The government carried out the expansionary fiscal policy, which resulted inthe increase of budget deficits. To compensate the deficits, it should take certain measures, such as issuing bonds or increasing the money supply.4. Many industrial countries face the dilemma during their reforms between high inflation rates and low unemployment rates, so they must consider all around to minimize the losses.5. Radical reforms must aim at maintaining public sector objectives while reducing spending. In this process, the role of the government will change from the provider to the overseer or the regulator of activities.Ⅲ. Modern societies have accepted the view that governments must play a larger role in the economy and must pursue objectives such as income redistribution andincome maintenance. The clock cannot be set back and, in fact, it should not be. For the majority of citizens, the world is certainly a more welcoming place now than it was a century ago. However, we argue that most of the important social and economic gains can be achieved with a drastically lower level of public spendingthan that which prevails today. Perhaps the level of public spending does not needto be much higher than, say, 30 percent of GDP to achieve most of the importantsocial and economic objectives that justify government intervention. Achievingthis expenditure level would require radical reforms, a well-functioning private market, and an efficient regulatory role for the government.Unit EightⅠ/1. winds of reform in Japan s banking sector2. the amended Bank of Japan Law in line with the global standards for autonomy and transparency3. touch on the paramount goal in the sphere of monetary policies4. charge the central bank with maintaining price stability and nurturing a secure credit system5. generate unnecessary panics in the financial markets6. the execution of monetary policies independent of the bureaucracy7. the institutions in charge of formulating the interest rate policies8. a discount rate at a historical low of 0.5%9. to keep maintaining and nurturing the credit system in accordance with the state policy10. in the spheres of fiscal and monetary policies11. the new economic law entering force this year12. in the context of propelling economic reforms13. to strengthen the government s functions through fiscal policies14. key measures which have won confidence from the market15. the implementation of a merit based promotion systemⅡ/1. It is no overstatement to say that the bad accounts in Japan's banks have accumulated to a very high level.2. The central bank's quasi-bureaucratic status has stymied its normal operations, so many economists call for the enhancement of its autonomy in accordance with the global standards.3. It has been normal for bank shares to march in line with movements in net interest margins, which means bank shares tend to rise as net margins widen and fall as the latter narrow.4. Japan's bank shares are in a different position from their American counterparts: America s bank shares have already risen sharply thanks to the country's full-fledged economic recovery, while Japan's bank shares are still weak as the banks struggle to get to grips with their bad debts.5. Runs on the banks proliferated and a sharp fall in bank loans followed, before the non-performing loans, amounting to 30% of bank assets, were taken over by the state in 1997.Ⅲ. How fast Japan's financial system seems to be reforming. Barely a week goes by without news of another merger between Japan s huge but troubled financial firms. Deregulation is the spur. Three years ago the government announced a “Big Bang"for the country's financial-services industry. This would tear down firewallsthat had largely stopped insurance companies, banks and stockbrokers from competing in each other's patches. It was also meant to put an end to arbitrary, stiflingand often corrupt supervision.The biggest reason for deregulation in this way was that Japan's incestuous,Soviet'style financial system was hopelessly bad at allocating credit around the economy. The massive bad-loan problems that have plagued the country's banks for most of the 1990s are merely one symptom of an even bigger ill. Even so, there was wide spread scepticism that the government would go through with the cure. It deserves some credit, therefore, for largely sticking to its plans.Unit NineⅠ/1. the most commonly used measures of income distribution2. the shift from labour to capital markets3. specialization in production and the dispersion of specialized production processes4. the widening gap between the wages of skilled workers and those of unskilled workers5. new production techniques biased toward skilled labor6. economic inefficiency and distortions retarding growth7. sustainable growth and a viable balance of payments policy8. a broadly based, efficient and easily administered tax system9. reduce disparities in human capital across income groups10. targeted programs consistent with the macroeconomic framework11. constitutional rules on revenue sharing12. to promote equality of opportunities through deregulating economy13. cash compensation in lieu of subsidies14. stimulate the use of public resources and the overall economic growth15. take effective measures to promote employment and equityⅡ/1. Much of the debate about income distribution has centered on wage earnings, which have been identified as an important factor in the overall distribution of incomes. But in Africa and Latin America, unequal ownership of land is a factor that cannot be ignored.2. Globalization has linked the labor, product and capital markets of theeconomies around the world and has indirectly led to specialization in production and the dispersion of specialized production processes to geographically distant locations.3. Although fiscal policies are usually viewed as the principal vehicle for assisting low-income groups and those affected by reform programs, quite a number of countries have adopted specific labor market policies in an effort to influence income distribution.4. Measures governments can take to promote equality of opportunities include deregulating the economy;setting up strong and responsible institutions, including a well functioning judicial system;reducing opportunities for corrupt practices;and providing adequate access to health and education services.5. Another important issue is whether governments should focus on outcomes—such as decreasing the number of people living in poverty, or ensuring that all members of society have equal opportunities.Ⅲ. One theory on wealth distribution indicates that irrational distribution andcorruption are the major reasons for the uneven income level. According to this theory, wealth goes through four stages of distribution—the market, the government, non governmental organizations and unlawful activities, mainly corruption. Usually the first stage of distribution—the market—will result in an uneven spread of resources, which should be redressed by the second distribution stage, the government. In the third stage, the distribution of wealth is realized through contributions and donations made by non governmental organizations. The contributions are given to the poor in the form of charity activities. Thenfollows illegal grabbing of wealth, such as robbery, embezzlement, tax evasion andbribery. Their harm to social equality and stability is enormous and cannot really be measured.Unit TenⅠ/1. to facilitate the establishment of a new form of leadership in today's corporations2. to link a corporation's developing prospective to its present business performance3. companies which forge ahead in the rather changeable world economy4. to encourage domestic enterprises to seek out opportunities to enter foreign markets5. to instill development strategies of new products into employees at all levels6. to consider the promotion in the company the criteria to judge whether one is successful or not。

英文原文：Schedule Risk Management INTRODUCTIONSchedule risks are both threats and opportunities to the success of a project. Threats tend to reduce the success of meeting the project goals and opportunities tend to increase the success. Risk management is the process of identifying, analyzing, qualifying and quantifying the risks, and developing a plan to deal with them. This is routinely done during baseline schedule development as well as during schedule updates. Implementation of risk management starts with early planning in both budgetary cost estimating and preliminary master scheduling in order to determine budgets and schedules with a comfortable level of confidence in the completion date and final cost. While there are entire volumes addressing risk in construction projects, it is important to note that the issue of time-related risk has not been universally incorporated into planning. Assessing cost risk is more intuitive, and very often addressed through the use of heuristics, so it has become more of a standard of the industry than time-related risk management. Most estimators will automatically add a contingency toa cost estimate to cover the risk of performance based on the type of project and circumstances pertaining to the undertaking of the project. Estimators estimate this contingency using their own rules of thumb developed over years of estimating as well as estimate ingmanuals，such as Means’ CostData or Cost Works. However, when it comes todeveloping the critical path method (CPM) schedules, risk management is often overlooked or underestimated.The purpose of this chapter is to provide an overview of risk management and the assessment process as well as best practices for incorporation of risk management into CPM schedule development and maintenance. For more detailed information about schedule risk, the reader should refer to risk management books, particularly those that focus on project management. One of the best resources available is David Hulett’s new book, Practical Schedule Risk Analysis.Any risk management program starts with a good and accurate CPM schedule, created through the use of best practices and checked for quality, reasonableness, and appropriateness of the network model. Without a well-designed and developed CPM baseline schedule, a risk management process will not be effective. The risk analysis depends upon accurate and consistent calculations of the network logic, the appropriateness of the sequencing and phasing, and a reasonable approach to estimating activity durations.Most CPM schedules are not adjusted for risk but rather are developed as if there were one right answer for the schedule’s numerical data. Generally, activity durations are established by calculation of the quantity of work represented by an activity divided by the production rate, or by sheer ‘‘gutfeeling’’ of the project manager or crew leader. This production rate is normally established by the contractor’s historical records or an estimating system, such as Means’, that provides an accurate data base of average production rates. Once those durations are calculated, they are often used as deterministic values, which assumes that the durations are accurate and unlikely to change. This assumption ignores the fact that the schedule is attempting to predict how long it will take to complete an activity at some unknown time in the future,using an unknown crew composition, with variable experience, and working in unknown conditions. Risk management recognizes the uncertainty in duration estimating and provides a system to brain storm other risks that may occur during the project. Probability distributions are the best way to model planned activity durations, as noted by Hulett ‘‘The best way to understand the activity durations that are included in the schedule is as probabilistic statements of possible durations rather than a deterministic statement about how long the future activity will take.’’DEFINITION OF RISK TERMSThe Project Management Institute (PMI) defines project risk in its Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK) as ‘‘an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on at least one project objective, such as time, cost, scope, or quality. A risk may have one or more causes and, if it occurs, one or more impacts.’’ PMBOK adds ‘‘Riskconditions could include aspects of the project’s or organization’s environment that may contribute to project risk, such as poor project management practices, or dependency on external participants who cannot be controll ed.’’Risk Management: A process designed to examine uncertainties occurring during project delivery and to implement actions dealing with those uncertainties in order to achieve project objectives The definition of risk management in PMBOK, 4th Edition, is: ‘‘systematic process of identifying, analyzing, and responding to project risk.’’Risk definition by AACEi Cost Engineering Terminology7 is: ‘‘the degree of dispersion or variability around the expected or ‘best’ value, which is estimated to exist for the economic variable in question, e.g., a quantitative measure of the upper and lower limits which are considered reasonable for the factor being estimated.’’Time Contingency: An amount of time added to the base estimated duration to allow for unknown impacts to the project schedule, or to achieve a certain level of confidence in the estimated duration.Probability: A measure of the likelihood of occurrence of an event.Risk register: A checklist of potential risks developed during the risk identification phase of risk management.Risk allocation: A determination of how to respond to risks, which can include shifting risk, avoiding risks, preventing or eliminating risks, andincorporating risks into the schedule.Deterministic: A calculated approach to estimating single activity duration using work quantity divided by estimated production rate.Probabilistic: The determination of risk likelihood and consequences to establish duration ranges or risk-adjusted durations that can be used in a schedule in recognition that there are no certainties in estimating future durations.Monte Carlo analysis: A probabilistic approach to determining confidence levels of completion dates for a project schedule by calculating durations as probability distributions.Probability distribution: The spread of durations in a statistically significant population that is used for the range of durations in probabilistic scheduling approaches.Confidence level: A measure of the statistical reliability of the prediction of project completion.What-if scenario: A modeling of a risk for use in a CPM schedule in order to predict the ramifications of an identified risk.Qualitative analysis: Occurring on the project, as well as assessing the severity of that risk should it occur and prioritizing the resultant list of risks. Quantitative analysis: The assigning of a probability to the qualitative description of the risk, ranking the risks, and calculating the potential impact from both individual risks as well as the cumulative effect of all risksidentified.Exculpatory clauses: Disclaimer verbiage that is designed to shift risk. TYPES OF RISK IN CONSTRUCTION PROJECTSEverything that has ever gone wrong on a construction project is a potential risk on the next project. Many project managers instinctively develop a lessons-learned list of historical risks and take steps to minimize their exposure to those risks in the future.Risks vary by industry and even by construction project type as well as by personnel involved with the project. A roadway or bridge project has a different group of risks than a facility or building, and the selected contractors may have different degrees of influence on the level of risks to performance. If an owner attempts to save money in preconstruction services by limiting the extent of field investigation or development of as-built data, there will be a higher risk of discovery of unknown problems. The experience and competence of the architects and engineers handling the design of the project, as well as their quality control indevelopment of working drawings, directly affect the construction effort and, consequently, the risk associated with the plans and specifications.Even if the owner has been proactive in preconstruction investigation, there is always a risk of unforeseen conditions. This can be a function of the type of soils encountered, the local municipality, and its culture and history of keeping good records of obsolete utilities. If the city in which the project is tobe built has a history of requiring contractors to remove all abandoned underground lines, there is a much lower risk of underground conflicts.The selection of the project team can impact positively or negatively the probability of successful project completion. Design-bid-build projects that use procurement philosophies allowing all financially capable contractors to participate will likely experience a much higher level of risk to on-time performance than a procurement philosophy that requires qualification of proposed contractors to ensure that they have the appropriate experience and resources to construct the project. A single weak subcontractor on a project will increase risk of performance and require more management than may be anticipated. If this is not considered, everyone will be surprised when that subcontractor fails and has to have their work augmented or corrected. Problems related to the management and possible termination of a failing subcontractor usually has serious negative impacts on the project.The reputation of the construction manager (CM) as well as the corporate culture will affect project performance. If the CM defines success with minimum time extensions as the only benchmark, there will likely be more conflict and a higher need for dispute resolution efforts. In addition, the management abilities of the CM directly affect many project tasks, such as review of shop drawings and response to requests for information in order to resolve questions about the construction.Work by outside or third parties can carry significant risks of influence onthe project’s success. For example, a light rail station to be built on top of a parking garage under construction by a different contractor will run an increased risk of completion on time. The project has no control over—and little ability to influence—the completion of the parking garage, which quickly becomes vital to completion of the light rail project.Most projects are affected by local weather conditions, which, when adverse, can significantly impede progress. Most specifications require the contractor to take into account the normal local weather conditions in his schedule planning, which includes normal adverse weather, but also allow for time extensions when unusually adverse weather occurs. Best practices would require the contractor to research the local historical weather records in order to plan for three to five year average weather conditions. Different parts of the country and the world have a wide variance in weather conditions, so planning or failure to plan for the risk of local weather can significantly affect project success.Local political situations, especially in volatile political climates, may hamper all efforts to construct a project efficiently. Countries with unstable political or economical systems will have higher risks in successful project completion than those with more stable systems. Countries or regions subject to wars, terrorism, turmoil, or other typesof violence also run greater risks to successful project completion than others. If the locality has a policy of requiring deep investigation into environmentalissues or stringent or complicated bureaucracy, projects built in that locality will have a higher risk of late permits and conflict during construction. Another large risk on any project is the experience and reputation of the project team for safe construction practices. Safety violations and accidents can shut down a job completely. Even minor safety failures can distract the project team and impede timely performance. If a contractor has a poor safety record, the risk of delays because of safety violations is increased and should be taken into account during schedule development.A large volume of change orders on a project will affect employee morale; there is nothing worse than asking a craftsman to rip out recently installed high-quality woodwork for a requested change. If the CM has a good change management program in place, including most importantly good planning, the risks of negative pressure from changes are lowered. Without the program, the risks may be significant enough to derail project completion. Most conversations about risk are related to negative risks that impair successful performance, but often there are opportunities that would be overlooked without good risk assessment. A renovation project that calls for a three-story masonry wall to be demolished to the foundation in order to install a beam and column system might be redesigned with a pin beam temporary support structure, allowing the upper two stories to remain in place, saving time and money, as well as removing some risk. The brainstorming about risks needs to include looking for opportunities that could positively impact the project timefor completion.It seems obvious that failure to plan for the myriad of risks that often affect project performance will render the planning less accurate. Without risk management, every item that might appear on a risk register (a checklist of potential risks) is a surprise to the project team should it happen, diverting attention and emphasis from the project management and consuming valuable resources. Most disputes arise from risks that likely were not considered at the inception of the project and might have been eliminated or mitigated with good risk planning.Once a company develops a regular risk management culture, the risk register generates many of the same risks on project after project. However, a company’s ‘‘risk register’’ should not be a fixed template, used as is on all its projects. The list must be updated and customized for each project taking into consideration its own risks. These lessons learned, when incorporated into the project schedule through the risk managementprogram, are invaluable in helping to minimize threats that carry negative impacts and take advantage of opportunities that bring positive impacts to project comp.IMPORTANCE OF GOOD PLANNING FOR RISK MANAGEMENT The quality of the risk management plan will control the usefulness of the risk analysis. This quality is achieved through developing a good and encompassing master risk register in a brainstorming workshop withexperienced attendees, and following that process with analysis and risk allocation. This is combined with a process of continuing risk monitoring during updates as well as continuous cycles of risk management. Participants in the workshop will often comment that they cannot take certain risks into account because they do not have control of the risks or they have no idea if that risk will actually happen. One of the typical issues is repeated cycles of shop drawings, where experience tells us that a complicated design may cause structural steel shop drawings to be rejected, requiring revision and resubmission. Some stakeholders feel that this is beyond their ability to plan for and therefore, the schedule should ignore it and assume the risk will not happen. Accepting this assumption minimizes the risk identification and analysis process. This type of risk should be identified, and then during the qualitative analysis, it will be weeded out as a low priority or incorporated as a high priority. However, if the risk is just not included on the risk register, the opportunity to analyze it is lost.With a thorough and organized risk workshop, based on a good master risk register, and participation by the major stakeholders as well as the project management team, the output of the risk analysis will be very useful. The most likely risks will be identified and analyzed, and with the rest of the risk management steps, the schedule will evolve into a risk-adjusted schedule, capable of reasonable analysis and realistic completion predictions.RISK SHIFTING IN CONTRACTSContract language may have a significant impact on how much of the risk each party carries. Sometimes called exculpatory clauses, this language attempts to shift or apportion undetermined risk. Contracts are often used to control or assign risk to various parties, or just to assign it to a party other than the owner. Many owners, developers, and contractors prefer using standard contract forms, such as those specially developed by organizations such as the American Institute of Architecture (AIA), the Construction Management Association of America (CMAA), and theAssociated General Contractors (AGC) in the United States and FIDIC or NEC in Europe and the Middle East, because such contract forms were written and updated by professionals and are widely known and used. However, many others insist on writing their own contracts or making amendments to the standard forms so that they can change certain conditions, which may—and usually does—affect the risk ofthe contracting parties.One example of this risk shifting is the use of clauses stating that geotechnical reports and information are provided to bidders for information only, and the owner is not responsible for any usage or interpretation of the geotechnical information. This is an attempt to limit the owner’s exposure to delays because of differing site conditions.Another example is that of the typical ‘‘no damages for delay’’ la nguage that sometimes shows up in contracts, which does not typically shift the timeperformance risk, but only the costs for the delay. This language attempts to move the risk of the costs of delays from the responsibility of the owner to the contractor, so that the sole remedy is a time extension.Construction manager and contractor insurances are means to handle the shifted risk of contracts and limit the liability of those parties. These types of insurance can provide some level of protection against the adverse consequences of unknown problems that might affect the completion of the project. Builder’s risk policies provide insurance that will replace materials and provide for damage repair that can be invoked fairly quickly in the event of vandalism or property losses, allowing the project to resume production and minimize delayed completion risks.An astute owner realizes that the more that risk is shifted to the contractor, the higher the cost and, sometimes, the longer the performance time of the project will be. A fair risk allocation is essential for a successful, economical, and timely completed project. Unfair risk allocation results in risks being distributed among the construction team, creating disharmony and adversarial relationships among the very team members that are needed to resolve the problems at hand.The risk management plan is the place to identify all risks and determine how to deal with these risks. This provides much better protection through a fair and objective allocation of risk, producing a clear understanding of the risk objectives by the entire project team. In some contracts, owners may tryto shift some risks to the contractor as part of what they perceive as negotiation. Contractor’s profit is usually proportional to the risk taken by the contractor. It is important for any owner to understand that there is always a price for shifting the risk, whether declared or hidden. Perhaps in some instances if the owner knew the real cost of shifting certain risks, he would have preferred not to shift them.An example of the above is when buying a new car or home. A standard warranty comes usually with every new vehicle and covers manufacturer’s defects up to a certain time period (e.g.36 months) or mileage (e.g.36,000 miles), whichever comes first. Of course, the salesperson will try to sell the buyer (owner) an ‘‘extended warranty’’policy that extends most of the original warranty terms in time and mileage and perhaps adds a few attractive items. A buyer who considers himself a good negotiator may manage to obtain this extended warranty policy at ‘‘no extra cost.’’ This is a myth! In most cases, the buyer would have received a price discount on the vehicle, roughly equivalent to the dealer’s cost on the extended warranty policy, in lieu of the policy itself.中文：计划风险管理介绍进度风险对于一个项目的成功既是威胁又是机遇。

Chapter17Macroeconomic and industry Analysis1. A top down analysis of a firm starts with ____________.D. the global economy2. An example of a highly cyclical industry is ________.A. the automobile industry3. Demand-side economics is concerned with _______.A. government spending and tax levelsB. monetary policyC. fiscal policyE. A, B, and C4. The most widely used monetary tool is ___________.C. open market operations5. The "real", or inflation-adjusted, exchange rate, isC. the purchasing power ratio.6. The "normal" range of price-earnings ratios for the S&P 500 Index isD. between 12 and 257. Monetary policy is determined byC. the board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.8. A trough is ________.B. a transition from a contraction in the business cycle to the start of an expansion9. A peak is ________.A. a transition from an expansion in the business cycle to the start of a contraction10. If the economy is growing, firms with high operating leverage will experience __________.A. higher increases in profits than firms with low operating leverage.11. If the economy is shrinking, firms with high operating leverage will experience __________.A. higher decreases in profits than firms with low operating leverage.12. If the economy is growing, firms with low operating leverage will experience __________.C. smaller increases in profits than firms with high operating leverage.13. If the economy is shrinking, firms with low operating leverage will experience__________.C. smaller decreases in profits than firms with high operating leverage.14. Industrial production refers to _________.C. the total manufacturing output in the economy.15. GDP refers to _________.D. the total production of goods and services in the economy16. A rapidly growing GDP indicates a(n) ______ economy with ______ opportunity for a firm to increase sales.D. expanding; ample17. A declining GDP indicates a(n) ______ economy with ______ opportunity for a firm to increase sales.A. stagnant; little18. The average duration of unemployment and changes in the consumer price index for services are _________.C. lagging economic indicators19. A firm in an industry that is very sensitive to the business cycle will likely have a stock beta ___________.A. greater than 1.020. If the economy were going into a recession, an attractive industry to invest in would be the ________ industry.B. medical services21. The stock price index and contracts and new orders for nondefense capital goods areA. leading economic indicators.22. A firm in the early stages of the industry life cycle will likely have ________.B. high risk.C. rapid growthE. B and C23. Assume the U.S. government was to decide to increase the budget deficit. This action will most likely cause __________ to increaseA. interest ratesB. government borrowingD. both A and B24. Assume the U.S. government was to decide to decrease the budget deficit. This action will most likely cause __________ to decreaseA. interest ratesB. government borrowingD. both A and B25. Assume that the Federal Reserve decreases the money supply. This action will cause________ to decrease.C. investment in the economy26. If the currency of your country is depreciating, the result should be to ______ exports and to _______ imports.B. stimulate, discourage27. If the currency of your country is appreciating, the result should be to ______ exports and to _______ imports.C. discourage, stimulate28. Increases in the money supply will cause demand for investment and consumption goods to _______ in the short run and cause prices to ________ in the long run.A. increase, increase29. The North American Industry Classification System (NAICS)A. are for firms that operate in the NAFTA region.B. group firms by industry.D. A and B.30. If interest rates increase, business investment expenditures are likely to ______ and consumer durable expenditures are likely to _________.D. decrease, decrease31. Fiscal policy generally has a _______ direct impact than monetary policy on the economy, and the formulation and implementation of fiscal policy is ______ than that of monetary policy.B. more, slower32. Fiscal policy is difficult to implement quickly becauseA. it requires political negotiations.B. much of government spending is nondiscretionary and cannot be changed.D. A and B.33. InflationA. is the rate at which the general level of prices is increasing.B. rates are high when the economy is considered to be "overheated".D. A and B.Two firms, A and B, both produce widgets. The price of widgets is $1 each. Firm A has total fixed costs of $500,000 and variable costs of 50 cents per widget. Firm B has total fixed costs of $240,000 and variable costs of 75 cents per widget. The corporate tax rate is 40%. If the economy is strong, each firm will sell 1,200,000 widgets. If the economy enters a recession, each firm will sell 1,100,000 widgets.34. If the economy enters a recession, the after-tax profit of Firm A will be ________.C. $30,00035. If the economy enters a recession, the after-tax profit of Firm B will be _______.E. none of the above36. If the economy is strong, the after-tax profit of Firm A will be _______.D. $60,00037. If the economy is strong, the after-tax profit of Firm B will be __________.C. $36,00038. Calculate firm A's degree of operating leverage.A. 11.039. Calculate firm B's degree of operating leverage.C. 29.8640. Classifying firms into groups, such as _________ provides an alternative to the industry life cycle.A. slow-growersB. stalwartsD. A and B41. Supply-side economists wishing to stimulate the economy are most likely to recommendD. a decrease in the tax rate.42. Which of the following are not examples of defensive industries?B. durable goods producers.43. Which of the following are examples of defensive industries?A. food producers.C. pharmaceutical firms.D. public utilitiesE. A, C and D44. ________ is a proposition that a strong proponent of supply side economics would most likely stress.B. Higher marginal tax rates promote economic inefficiency and thereby retard aggregate output as they encourage investors to undertake low productivity projects with substantial tax shelter benefits45. The industry life cycle is described by which of the following stage(s)?A. start-up.B. consolidation.D. A and B.46. In the start-up stage of the industry life cycleA. it is difficult to predict which firms will succeed and which firms will fail.B. industry growth is very rapid.D. A and B.47. In the consolidation stage of the industry life-cycleC. the performance of firms will more closely track the performance of the overall industry.48. In the maturity stage of the industry life cycleA. the product has reached full potential.B. profit margins are narrower.C. producers are forced to compete on price to a greater extent.E. A, B, and C.49. In the decline stage of the industry life cycleA. the product may have reached obsolescence.B. the industry will grow at a rate less than the overall economy.C. the industry may experience negative growth.E. A, B, and C.50. A variety of factors relating to industry structure affect the performance of the firm, includingA. threat of entry.B. rivalry between existing competitors.E. A and B.51. The process of estimating the dividends and earnings that can be expected from the firm based on determinants of value is calledD. fundamental analysis.52. The emerging market exhibiting the highest growth in real GDP in 2007 wasA. China53. The emerging stock market exhibiting the highest U.S. dollar return in 2007 wasA. China54. The life cycle stage in which industry leaders are likely to emerge is theC. consolidation stage.55. Investment manager Peter Lynch refers to firms that are in bankruptcy or soon might be asE. turnarounds.56. A top-down analysis of a firm's prospects starts withD. an assessment of the broad economic environment.57. Over the period 1999-2006, which of the following countries had a change in its real exchange rate that was favorable for U.S. consumers who want to buy its goods?E. Japan58. Over the period 1999-2006, which of the following countries had a change in its real exchange rate that was most unfavorable for U.S. consumers who want to buy its goods?A. Canada59. In recent years, P/E multiples haveB. risen dramatically.60. In recent years, P/E multiples for S&P 500 companies haveD. ranged from 12 to 25.61. The industry with the highest ROE in 2007 wasD. iron/steel.62. The industry with the lowest ROE in 2007 wasE. airlines.63. The industry with the lowest return in 2007 wasA. home construction.64. The industry with the highest return in 2007 wasB. oil equipment.65. Investors can ______ invest in an industry with the highest expected return by purchasing ______.B. not; industry-specific iShares66. Which of the following are key economic statistics that are used to describe the state of the macroeconomy?I) gross domestic productII) the unemployment rateIII) inflationIV) consumer sentimentV) the budget deficitE. I, II, III, IV, and V67. An example of a positive demand shock isE. a decrease in tax rates.68. An example of a negative demand shock isA. a decrease in the money supply.B. a decrease in government spending.E. A and B.69. During which stage of the industry life cycle would a firm experience stable growth in sales?A. Consolidation70. The emerging stock market exhibiting the highest local currency return in 2007 wasB. ChinaE. China71. Sector rotationC. is shifting the portfolio more heavily toward an industry or sector that is expected to perform well in the future.72. According to Michael Porter, there are five determinants of competition. An example of _____ is when new entrants to an industry our pressure on prices and profits.A. Threat of Entry73. According to Michael Porter, there are five determinants of competition. An example of _____ is when competitors seek to expand their share of the market.B. Rivalry between Existing Competitors74. According to Michael Porter, there are five determinants of competition. An example of _____ is when the availability limits the prices that can be charged to customers.C. Pressure from Substitute Products75. According to Michael Porter, there are five determinants of competition. An example of _____ is when a buyer purchases a large fraction of an industry's output and can demand price concessions.D. Bargaining power of Buyers76. Assume the U.S. government was to decide to increase the budget deficit. This action will most likely cause __________ to increaseA. interest ratesB. government borrowingD. both A and B77. If interest rates decrease, business investment expenditures are likely to ______ and consumer durable expenditures are likely to _________.A. increase, increase78. An example of a defensive industry is ________.B. the tobacco industryC. the food industryE. B and CTwo firms, C and D, both produce coat hangers. The price of coat hangers is $1.20 each. Firm C has total fixed costs of $750,000 and variable costs of 30 cents per widget. Firm D has total fixed costs of $400,000 and variable costs of 50 cents per widget. The corporate tax rate is 40%. If the economy is strong, each firm will sell 2,000,000 widgets. If the economy enters a recession, each firm will sell 1,400,000 widgets.79. If the economy enters a recession, the total revenue of Firm C will be ________.A. $1,680,00080. If the economy enters a recession, the total cost of Firm C will be ________.B. $1,170,00081. If the economy enters a recession, the before tax profit of Firm C will be ________.C. $510,00082. If the economy enters a recession, the tax of Firm C will be ________.D. $204,00083. If the economy enters a recession, the after tax profit of Firm C will be ________.E. $306,00084. If the economy is strong, the total revenue of Firm C will be ________.D. $2,400,00085. If the economy is strong, the total cost of Firm C will be ________.C. $1,305,00086. If the economy is strong, the before tax profit of Firm C will be ________.B. $1,050,00087. If the economy is strong, the tax of Firm C will be ________.A. $420,00088. If the economy is strong, the after-tax profit of Firm C will be _______.E. $630,00089. If a firm's sales decrease by 15% and profits decrease by 20% during a recession, the firms operating leverage is ____________?A. 1.33Short Answer Questions90. Discuss the tools of the U.S. government's "demand-side" policy. Include in your discussion of these tools the relative advantages and disadvantages of each in terms of the effect of the use of these tools on the economy.The two tools of the government's "demand-side" policy are fiscal and monetary policy. Fiscal policy is the use of government spending and taxing for the specific purpose of stabilizing the economy. Fiscal policy, once enacted, has the most direct and immediate effect on the economy. However, the formulation and implementation of fiscal policy is extremely slow, as such policy must be approved by both the legislative and executive branches of the federal government. Monetary policy consists of actions taken by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) to influence the money supply and/or interest rates. Monetary policy is relatively easy to formulate and to implement, but has less direct impact on the economy than fiscal policy. The most widely used tool of the FRS is the open market operations, in which the Fed buys or sells bonds for the Fed's account. Buying securities increases the money supply; selling securities decreases the money supply. Open market operations occur daily. Other FRS tools include adjusting the discount rate, which is the interest rate the Fed charges banks onshort-term loans, and altering reserve requirements, which are the fraction of deposits that banks must maintain in cash deposits with the Fed. Reductions in the money supply signal an expansionary monetary policy; lowering reserve requirements increase the money supply, and thus, stimulate the economy. The Fed walks a fine line: expansionary monetary policy probably will lower interest rates and stimulate investment and consumption in the short run, but ultimately inflation probably will result.Feedback: The rationale of this question is to ascertain whether the student has an understanding of the basic principles of macroeconomics.91. Discuss the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)'s indexes of economic indicators, and how each of the categories of these indicators might be used by the securities' analyst.The NBER has developed a set of cyclical indicators to help forecast, measure, and interpret short-term fluctuations in economic activity. The leading economic indicators are those that tend to increase or decrease in advance of the rest of the economy. These indicators are used to forecast the state of the economy for the coming period (usually one year). Coincident economic indicators move in tandem with the broad economy, and are used to confirm (or disconfirm) an earlier economic prediction. Lagging economic indicators are those that move after the broad economy, and are used to identify the end of a stage of the business cycle (such as a trough) and as an indication that another stage of business cycle (such as the expansion) is about to begin. The S&P 500 stock index is an excellent leading economic indicator, as would be expected by market efficiency proponents. However, if the stock market anticipates general economic trends, the task of the fundamentalist using economic forecasts to identify attractive industries (and thus stocks) for the future becomes even more impossible.Feedback: The purpose of this question is to ascertain the student's understanding of the widely quoted economic indicators and the usefulness (and lack thereof) in securities' analysis.92. Discuss the industry life cycle, how this concept can be used by security analysts, and the limitations of this concept for security analysis.The industry life cycle may be defined by the following stages: start up (rapid and increasing growth), consolidation (sable growth), maturity (slowing growth), and relative decline (minimal or negative growth). Investors interested in identifying new, and presumably ultimately successful, industries will use this technique, trying to get in on the "ground floor". In the start up stage, no historical data is present; thus, one cannot identify potentially successful firms. However, typically, all of the firms are selling at low prices and the investor will "diversify across the industry" by buying many different stocks in the industry. If the industry becomes successful, the surviving firms will appreciate substantially in value; the non-surviving firms will be written off as losses. Typically, in this stage, firms are paying little or no dividends. Investment in this stage is for the risk-tolerant investor. As the industry moves from the start up to the consolidation stage, firms begin paying or increasing dividends; the surviving firms become more successful, begin to enjoy economies of scale, and are moving up the learning curve in terms of cost efficiency. In the maturity stage, the growth has slowed and dividends may have increased; less risk is involved. By the relative decline stage, the firm has no new exciting capital budgeting projects and may have become an "income stock", by paying out a higher than average level of dividends. At this stage, the stock may be attractive for the risk-averse retiree interested in dividend income. However, the stock must be watched carefully in this stage, as this industry may be dying (buggy whips). However, over the industry life cycle, the clientele for the firms' stocks have changed, from the risk-tolerant to the risk averse.The problem with using this concept for investment purposes is identifying where the industry is in the industry life cycle. In addition, all industries do not move through the cycle in the same fashion. In fact, the goal is to avoid the relative decline stage.Feedback: The purpose of this question is to ascertain whether the student understands the industry life cycle, how the concept can be used by investors, and the limitations of the concept for investors.93. Discuss the ways in which the global economy might have an effect on a firm whose headquarters are in Montana. Be specific - cite some of the relevant factors that should be considered.A firm that operates from Montana cannot ignore the global economy. The firm may make sales to other countries, employ people from other countries, and invest in other countries. It may face price competition from similar firms abroad, be subject to wages that are different from those paid by foreign firms, and management may have less power to do what it wants due to labor unions. Exports of its products and imports will be influenced by the global economy. Interest rates in other countries will determine part of the return on the firm's investments. Exchange rates pose an additional risk if the company wants to repatriate its earnings. Countries' political and economic policies should be considered, with some being more predictable than others. Global markets have some linkages, but there are significant variations in performance among countries.Feedback: This question emphasizes the importance of the global economy, which should not be ignored when doing a macroeconomic analysis.94. List and discuss three of the five determinants of competition suggested in Porter's 1985 study.The determinants are: the threat of entry from new competitors, rivalry between existing competitors, price pressure from substitute products, the bargaining power of buyers, and the bargaining power of suppliers. Each of these is discussed below.Threat of entry from new competitors - If there are high profit margins in the industry, new competitors will be likely to enter. There may be some barriers to entry that existing firms can establish to discourage this. Possible barriers include longstanding relationships with suppliers and buyers, proprietary knowledge or patents, brand loyalty, and experience in the market. Rivalry between existing competitors - This could lead to price competition and lower profit margins. Expansion of one firm cuts into the rivals' market shares. Firms with homogeneous products face price pressure because they are unable to differentiate their products from their competitors' products. High fixed costs might force a company to operate at close to full capacity.Price pressure from substitute products - If firms in related industries produce similar products, the firm may not be able to charge as much for its product. Some examples are carbonated beverages and fruit drinks, paint and wallpaper, and movies and videos. Many other examples may be offered.Bargaining power of buyers - Buyers might have bargaining power if they purchase a substantial proportion of the firm's output. The firm might have to settle for accepting a lower price for its products. The automobile industry is an example given in the textbook. Bargaining power of suppliers - If the firm depends on a supplier to provide much of its inputs, the supplier might demand a higher price. This is especially true if there are no easily available alternative suppliers. Labor unions are cited as an example.Feedback: This question tests the student's understanding of the relationships among industry structure, competitive strategy, and profitability.。