提纲：
1非因果关系 Non Causal relationship
相关非因果
后此谬误
混淆因果
因果关系简单化
2横比 The Fallacy of Analogy & Comparison
3纵比 Assuming All things remains over time
4数据与调查 Problematic Data
A 不充分采样错误Insufficient Sample Fallacy
数量不够
不具有代表性
B 有偏采样错误The Biased-Sample Fallacy
问卷设计问题
谁组织的调查
数据问题
5充分/必要Sufficient Evidence & Necessary Condition
A 充分条件?有它就好
B 必要条件?缺它不行
C 充要条件
先打必要条件
再打充分条件
6整体与部分 Composition and Division
整体适用部分
个体适用整体
7非此即彼 False Dilemma
A考虑问题不全面
B没有限定重要词语
C循环论证
D为2对立目标辩论
E无理取闹
8其它
一．N on Causal relationship 非因果关系
1相关非因果
2后此谬误
3混淆因果
4因果关系简单化
相关非因果
In the last several years, whenever sales of personal computers went up, sales of athletic shoes also rose strongly; therefore, buyers of personal computers must have bought athletic shoes as well Commuter use of the new subway train is exceeding the transit company’s projections. However, commuter use of the shuttle buses that transport people to the subway stations is below the projected volume. If the transit company expects commuters to ride the shuttle buses to the subway rather than drive there, it must either reduce the shuttle bus fares or increase the price of parking at the subway stations
具体攻击方法
1 The argument depends on an unproven cause-and-effect relationship
between the ___&___. (P)
The argument depends on an unproven cause-and-effect relationship between the unexpectedly low shuttle-bus usage and shuttle-bus fares or stationparking fees.
2 The reason for ____ might have nothing to do with____
The reason for the unexpectedly low shuttle-bus usage might have nothing to do with either shuttlebus fares or station-parking fees.
3 For instance______.
For instance, commuter awareness of the shuttle-bus option might be growing more slowly than anticipated. For that matter, many commuters might be wary of riding the buses due to a recent shuttlebus accident.
4 Without ruling out these and other alternatives explanations for
_____, the author cannot draw a conclusion that_____.
Without ruling out these and other alternative explanations for the low shuttle-bus usage, the author cannot reasonably conclude that adjusting shuttle fares or stationparking fees will have any effect on that usage.
后此谬误
I found my love after having a special style of haircut, so the haircut must
be the reason I found my love In the first 4 years that Montoya has served as mayor of the city of SP, the population has decreased and the unemployment rate has increase. Two businesses have closed for each new business that has opened.
Under Varro, who served as mayor for four years before Montoya, the unemployment rate decreased and the population increased. Clearly, the residents of SP would be best served if they voted Montoya out of office and reelected Varro
具体攻击方法
1 The author assumes that ___ caused ____. (P)
The author assumes that the Montoya administration caused the unemployment in SP as well as its population loss.
2 The line of reasoning is that because____ was before ____, the former event
caused the latter.
The line of reasoning i s that because Montoya’s election was before the rise in unemployment and the decline in population. The former event caused the latter
3 To illustrate___.
To illustrate, perhaps a state wide or nationwide recession is the cause of these events. Or perhaps the current economic downturn is part of a larger picture of economic cycles and trends, and has nothing to do with who happens to be mayor.
Yet another possibility is that Varro enjoyed a period of economic stability and Varro’s own administration se t the stage for the unemployment and the decline in population.
混淆因果
他做了很多好事，所以是一个好人 2 years ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past 2 years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View’s tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. Therefor, the best way to improve Hopewell’s economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View.
具体攻击方法
1 It’s possible that the author has confused cause with effect respecting____
It’s possible that the author has confused cause with effect respecting the recent developments in Ocean View.
2 Perhaps____ was a response to ____
Perhaps Ocean View’s constr uction of a new golf course and hotel was a response to previous increases in tourism and business development.
3 Without ruling out these and other alternative explanations for_____, the
