8类逻辑错误

提纲：1非因果关系 Non Causal relationship相关非因果后此谬误混淆因果因果关系简单化2横比 The Fallacy of Analogy & Comparison3纵比 Assuming All things remains over time4数据与调查 Problematic DataA 不充分采样错误Insufficient Sample Fallacy数量不够不具有代表性B 有偏采样错误The Biased-Sample Fallacy问卷设计问题谁组织的调查数据问题5充分/必要Sufficient Evidence & Necessary ConditionA 充分条件?有它就好B 必要条件?缺它不行C 充要条件先打必要条件再打充分条件6整体与部分 Composition and Division整体适用部分个体适用整体7非此即彼 False DilemmaA考虑问题不全面B没有限定重要词语C循环论证D为2对立目标辩论E无理取闹8其它一．N on Causal relationship 非因果关系1相关非因果2后此谬误3混淆因果4因果关系简单化相关非因果In the last several years, whenever sales of personal computers went up, sales of athletic shoes also rose strongly; therefore, buyers of personal computers must have bought athletic shoes as well Commuter use of the new subway train is exceeding the transit company’s projections. However, commuter use of the shuttle buses that transport people to the subway stations is below the projected volume. If the transit company expects commuters to ride the shuttle buses to the subway rather than drive there, it must either reduce the shuttle bus fares or increase the price of parking at the subway stations具体攻击方法1 The argument depends on an unproven cause-and-effect relationshipbetween the ___&___. (P)The argument depends on an unproven cause-and-effect relationship between the unexpectedly low shuttle-bus usage and shuttle-bus fares or stationparking fees.2 The reason for ____ might have nothing to do with____The reason for the unexpectedly low shuttle-bus usage might have nothing to do with either shuttlebus fares or station-parking fees.3 For instance______.For instance, commuter awareness of the shuttle-bus option might be growing more slowly than anticipated. For that matter, many commuters might be wary of riding the buses due to a recent shuttlebus accident.4 Without ruling out these and other alternatives explanations for_____, the author cannot draw a conclusion that_____.Without ruling out these and other alternative explanations for the low shuttle-bus usage, the author cannot reasonably conclude that adjusting shuttle fares or stationparking fees will have any effect on that usage.后此谬误I found my love after having a special style of haircut, so the haircut mustbe the reason I found my love In the first 4 years that Montoya has served as mayor of the city of SP, the population has decreased and the unemployment rate has increase. Two businesses have closed for each new business that has opened.Under Varro, who served as mayor for four years before Montoya, the unemployment rate decreased and the population increased. Clearly, the residents of SP would be best served if they voted Montoya out of office and reelected Varro具体攻击方法1 The author assumes that ___ caused ____. (P)The author assumes that the Montoya administration caused the unemployment in SP as well as its population loss.2 The line of reasoning is that because____ was before ____, the former eventcaused the latter.The line of reasoning i s that because Montoya’s election was before the rise in unemployment and the decline in population. The former event caused the latter3 To illustrate___.To illustrate, perhaps a state wide or nationwide recession is the cause of these events. Or perhaps the current economic downturn is part of a larger picture of economic cycles and trends, and has nothing to do with who happens to be mayor.Yet another possibility is that Varro enjoyed a period of economic stability and Varro’s own administration se t the stage for the unemployment and the decline in population.混淆因果他做了很多好事，所以是一个好人 2 years ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past 2 years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View’s tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. Therefor, the best way to improve Hopewell’s economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View.具体攻击方法1 It’s possible that the author has confused cause with effect respecting____It’s possible that the author has confused cause with effect respecting the recent developments in Ocean View.2 Perhaps____ was a response to ____Perhaps Ocean View’s constr uction of a new golf course and hotel was a response to previous increases in tourism and business development.3 Without ruling out these and other alternative explanations for_____, theauthor cannot reasonably infer_____(总论点)Without ruling out these and other alternative explanations for the recent trends, the author cannot reasonably infer Hopewell’s economy would benefit by following Ocean View’s example.因果关系简单化男人有钱就会变坏 For the third year in a row, the average household income in our country has risen significantly. That prosperity means that families are likely to be spending more time and money on leisure activities. Megamart stores should therefore concentrate on enlarging and promoting its line of products typically used in leisure activities: athletic and outdoor equipment, televisions, gourmet cooking equipment, and luggage and travel accessories.1 The author attempts to establish a positive relationship between the fact that ____ and the claim that ___The author attempts to establish a positive relationship between the fact that a significant rise in average household income and the claim that the families are likely to be spending more time and money on leisure activities.2 This argument, nonetheless, is based on an oversimplified analysis of the cause of ___.This argument, nonetheless, is based on an oversimplified analysis of the cause of spending more time and money on leisure activies.3 Actually, it is equally possible that ____ or it is possible that ___Actually, it is equally possible that the local residents is in greater need for necessities, nor luxuries for instance the cooking and leisure equipment, or it is possible that an inflation happened meanwhile the increase of the income, thus whether the actual income will be raised is unveiled.4 Without ruling out such alternative explanations, the author can not convince me that ____ necessarily results in _____Without ruling out such alternative explanations, the author can not convince me that the increase of income necessarily results in spending more time and moneyon leisure activities二．The Fallacy of Analogy & Comparison 横比Over time, the costs of processing go down because as organizations learn how to do things better, they become more efficient. In color film processing, for example, the cost of a 3-by-5-inch print fell from 50 cents for 5-day service in 1970 to 20 cents for 1-day service in 1984. The same principle applies to the processing of food.1 It is highly doubtful that the facts drawn from the ___ are applicable to the ____It is highly doubtful that the facts drawn from the color-film processingindustry are applicable to the food processing industry.2 Differences between the 2 ____ clearly outweigh the similarities, thus making the analogy less than valid.Differences between the 2 industries clearly outweigh the similarities, thus making the analogy less than valid.3 For instance _____.For instance, problems of spoilage, contamination, and timely transportation all affect the food industry but virtually absent in the film-processing industry.三. Assuming All things remains over time 纵比拿破仑时代送礼送什么最贵重? 技术革新引发巨变 Con-Edison 收购专利 98年F/A-18 可用植物油 ?国际粮油价格现在你认为宝贵的一切, 未来可能… Mental health experts have observed that symptoms of mental illness are less pronounced in many patients after group music-therapy sessions, and job opening in the music therapy field have increased during the past year. Consequently, graduates from our degree program for music therapists should have no trouble finding good positions. To help improve the financial status of Omega U, we should therefore expand our music-therapy degree program by increasing its enrollment targets.1 Committing the fallacy of all things are equal overtime, the author assumes that ___ will remain unchanged in the future.Committing the fallacy of all things are equal overtime, the author assumes that the job market will remain unchanged in the future.2 However, ____ is an insufficient evidence that ____However, a recent one-year increase is an insufficient evidence that guarantee the coming year’s employment.4-Problematic Data 数据与调查A 不充分采样错误Insufficient Sample FallacyB 有偏采样错误The Biased-Sample Fallacy充分采样的条件1 样本必须具有足够大的数量2 具有代表性A 不充分采样错误之数量不够After experiencing a decline in usage by its members, healthy Heart Fitness Center built an indoor pool. Since usage did not increase significantly it appears that health club managers should adopt another approach – lowering membership fees rather than installing expensive new features. 1 The conclusion that ___ is basedon too small sample to be reliable.The conclusion that installing new features at fitness centers will not increase member usage is based on too small sample to be reliable.2 The only evidence offered in support of this conclusion is that ___The only evidence offered in support of this conclusion is that Healthy Heart Fitness Center did not experience an increase.3 Unless it can be shown that ___ is typical of all, the conclusion that ___ is groundless.Unless it can be shown that Healthy Heart is typical of all, the conclusion that all health club managers should abolish purchasing new features rather than lowering membership fees is dubious.A 不充分采样错误之没有代表性As overall life expectancy continues to rise, the population of our country is growing increasingly older. For example, over 20% of the residents of 1 of our more populated regions are now at least 65 years old, and occupancy rates at resort hotels in that region declined significantly during the past 6 months. Because of these 2 related trends, a prudent investor would be well advised to sell interest in hotels and invest in hospitals and nursing homes instead.1 The example cited, is insufficient to warrant the claim because there is no reason to believe data drawn from ___ is representative of all.The example cited, is insufficient to warrant the claim because there is no reason to believe data drawn from this more populated region is representative of all.2 For instance _____.For instance, if the region from which the data was gathered was Florida, it would clearly be unrepresentative. Florida is populated by a disproportionate number of retired people over 65 years old.B 有偏采样错误1问卷设计问题2谁组织的调查3数据问题1问卷设计问题选项科学否?信息保密否?Among Newtrue employees participating in our department’s most recent survey, about half indicated that they are happy with our current four-day work week. These survey results show that the most effective way to improve overall productivity at Newtrue is to allow each employee to choose for himself or herself either a four-day or five-day work week1 The survey methodology might be problematic. First ___. Second___.The survey methodology might be problematic. First we are not informed whether survey required that respondents choose their workweek preference between the 2 alternatives. A third one could be omitted. Second, we are not informed whether thissurvey is anonymous or even confidential. 2谁组织的调查KPMG-红十字会-王石 Managers at our central office report that their employees tend to be most productive in the days immediately preceding a vacation. To help counteract our declining market share, we could increase the productivity of our professional staff members, who currently receive 4 weeks paid vacation a year, by limiting them to a maximum of 1 week’s continuous vacation time. They will thus take more vacation breaks during a year and give us more days of maximum productivity. The memo provides no evidence that the reports from the managers are ___ . The managers all have their own ____ in the vacation policies, and therefore might have fabricated the reports so that ____.3数据问题Reelect Adams, and you will be voting for proven leadership in improving the state’s economy. Over the past year alone, 70% of the state’s workers have had increases in their wages, 5 thousand new jobs have been created, and 6 corporations have located their headquarters here.1 The statistics listed are vague and oversimplified.2 For example ____.For example, the 5,000 new jobs may have been too few to bring state unemployment rates down significantly; the pool indicates that 6 new corporations located in the state, but fails to indicate if any left.5-Sufficient Evidence & Necessary Condition 充分/必要条件A 充分条件?有它就好B 必要条件?缺它不行C 充要条件葵花宝典欲练神功，必先自宫若不自宫，亦可成功若是自宫，未必成功A 充分条件It makes no sense that in most places 15 year olds are not eligible for their driver’s license while people who are far older can retain all of their driving privileges by simply renewing their license. If older drivers can get these renewals, often without having to pass another driving test, then 15 year olds should be eligible to get a license. 15 year olds typically have much better eyesight, especially at night, much better hand-eye coordination; and much quicker reflexes. They are also less likely to feel confused by unexpected developments or disoriented in unfamiliar surroundings, and they recover from injuries more quickly.1 Even if ____, _____is not acceptable.Even if it is granted that 15 year olds possess better night vision, reflexes, hand-eye coordination, and are less disoriented in unfamiliar surroundings than older drivers, these abilities to qualify them to obtain a driver’s lic ense is not acceptable.2 The author assumes that_____, in addition ____ .The author assumes that physical capabilities are the only attributes necessary to operate a motor vehicle. In addition to these abilities, drivers must be able to exercise good judgment in all types of driving situations and conditions and must be aware of the consequences of their decisions and actions when driving.B 必要条件Scientists must typically work 60-80 hrs a week if they hope to further their careers; consequently, good and affordable all-day child care must be made available to both male and female scientists if they are to advance in their fields. Moreover, requirements for career advancement must be made more flexible so that preschool-age children can spend a significant portion of each day with a parent.1 In this argument, the author asserts that ____ must ____ . However, the author fails to consider and rule out other options.In this argument, the author asserts that in order for scientist, male and female alike, to further their career, they must have access to all-day child care. However, the author fails to consider and rule out other options.2 For instance_____.For instance, a scientist whose spouse has time during each day to spend with their child. Besides, many scientist-parents, might have friends or relatives who can provide child care. Furthermore, childless scientists or scientists whose children are old enough to take care of themselves will have no need for the services advocated in this argument.C 充要条件Applications for advertising spots on KMTV, our local cable television channel, decreased last year, Meanwhile a neighboring town’s local channel, KOOP, changed its focus to farming issues and reported an increase in advertising applications for the year. To increase applications for advertising spots, KMTV should and only focus its programming on farming issues as well1-先打必要条件The argument depends on the assumptions that ____ is the only way ____.The argument depends on the assumptions that the proposed change is the only way KMTV can stimulate advertising applications.However, this is not the case. For example____.For example, by reducing advertising rates, improving programming quality, or extending broadcast range.2-再打充分条件In addition, the author further assumes that the ____ would suffice to ____ . In addition, the author further assumes that the proposed programming change would suffice to bring about the desired increase.However, this is not always the case. For example _____.However, this is not always the case. For example the last year’s decline was due to a combination of factors - say the whole economy was experiencing a recession period.6-Composition and Division 整体与部分整体适用部分个体适用整体因为全球股价仍在持续下跌，我们不应该购买股票 AppleIt is no longer cost-effective for the Perks Company to continue offering its employees a generous package of benefits and incentives. In periods when national unemployment rates are low, Perks may need to offer such a package in order to attract and keep good employees, but since national unemployment rates are now high, Perks does not need to offer the same benefits and incentives. 1 概括论据论点The author relies on the reasoning that it is unnecessary to pay relatively high wages during periods of high unemployment because the market will supply many good employees at lower rates of pay. 2 The particular ____ may not be representative as a wholeThe particular industry that Perks is involved in may not be representative as a whole3 For instance_____.For instance, it is possible that relatively few unemployed people have the type of qualifications that match job openings at Perks.命题：男人都不是好东西There is a common misconception that university hospitals are better than community or private hospitals. This notion is unfounded. The university hospitals in our region employ 15% fewer doctors, have a 20% lower success rate in treating patients, make far less overall profit, and pay their medical staff considerably less than do private hospitals. From this it seems clear that the quality of care at university hospitals is lower.1 The most egregious reasoning error in the argument is ____The most egregious reasoning error in the argument is the author use one region university hospitals’ phenomenon as evidence to generalize about all the university hospitals.2 The underlying assumption is____.The underlying assumption is that the hospitals of this region can be a good indicator or representative for all university hospitals.7-False Dilemma 非此即彼人死后，要么___, 要么___.Commuter use of the new subway train is exceeding the transit company’s projections. However, commuter use of the shuttle buses that transport people to the subway stations is below the projected volume. If the transit company expects commuters to ride the shuttle buses to the subway rather than drive there, it must either reduce the shuttle bus fares or increase the price of parking at the subway stations1 The author assumes that _____ and _____ are mutually exclusive alternatives. The author assumes that reducing shuttle fees and increasing parking fees are mutually exclusive alternatives.2 However, the author provides no reason for imposing an either-orchoice.3 For instance_____.For instance, the most effective solution might include a combination of policy changes, in shuttle fares, parking fees, change the route as well as rescheduling.8-other fallacies 其它A考虑问题不全面B没有限定重要词语C循环论证D为2对立目标辩论E无理取闹A考虑问题不全面When the Apogee Company had all its operations in one location, it was more profitable than it is today. Therefore, the Apogee Company should close down its field offices and conduct all its operations from a single location. Such centralization would improve profitability by cutting costs and helping the company maintain better supervision of all employees.B没有限定重要词语20 years ago, only half of the students who graduated from Einstein High School went on to attend a college. Today, 2/3 of the students who graduated do so. Clearly, Einstein has improved its educational effectiveness over the past 2 decades. This improvement has occurred despite the fact that the school’s funding, when adjusted for inflation, is about the same as it was 20 years ago. Therefore, we don’t need to make any increase in the school funding at this time1 The meaning of the vague concept _____ has to be established.The meaning of the vague concept “Educational efficien cy” has to be established.2 自由发挥Usually we are interested in something more than just the numbers of students who go on to college from a high school.3 For instance____.For instance, how well the school has prepared students for a successful college experience? How much the student can utilize their knowledge to serve the kind? Are they merely a cold-blooded calculator or a capable man with compassion upon others?C循环论证没有任何论据支持关键假设未被证明1 month ago, all the showerheads on the 1st 5 floors of Sunnyside Towers were modified to restrict the water flow to approximately 1/3 of its original force. Though actual readings of water usage before and after the adjustment are not yet available, the change will obviously result in a considerable savings for Sunnyside Corporation. D为2对立目标辩论Scientists must typically work 60-80 hrs a week if they hope to further their careers; consequently, good and affordable all-day child care must be made available to both male and female scientists if they are to advance in their fields. Moreover, requirements for career advancement must be made more flexible so that preschool-age children can spend a significant portion of each day with a parent.1 In essence, the 2nd assertion serves to undermine the 1st one.2 For instance_____.For instance, if the children of scientists spend significant time each day with a parent, without compromising to the scientistparent’s career, then all-day child care would seem unnecessary. E无理取闹诉诸权威：砖家辟谣人身攻击He’s gay, don’t believe in him。