金融保险金融危机与房地产.docx

金融危机对房地产市场的影响在全球经济发展过程中，金融危机是一种无法忽视的现象。

金融危机既是对金融体系的一次巨大考验，也是对房地产市场的一次严峻挑战。

本文将从多个角度探讨金融危机对房地产市场的影响，并分析其可能带来的变化和挑战。

1. 金融危机与房地产市场之间的关系金融危机对房地产市场的影响是复杂而深远的。

首先，金融危机往往导致金融机构的资金链断裂，从而削弱了对房地产市场的信贷支持。

缺乏足够的信贷资金将限制购房者的购买能力，进一步导致房地产需求下降，从而影响房地产市场的供需关系。

其次，金融危机造成的经济衰退和就业压力也会使人们对房地产市场产生犹豫和担忧，进一步抑制了购房者的购买意愿。

2. 金融危机对房地产市场供需关系的影响金融危机对房地产市场的供需关系产生重要影响。

首先，金融危机造成的信贷紧缩和金融机构倒闭使得购房者很难获得贷款，导致购房需求减弱。

其次，由于金融危机导致的经济衰退，失业率上升，购房者的购买力受到严重压制，进一步拖累了房地产市场的需求。

3. 金融危机对房地产市场价格的影响金融危机对房地产市场价格产生重要影响。

首先，由于购房需求下降，供大于求的情况出现，房地产市场的价格往往会受到一定程度的冲击。

其次，金融危机使得部分投资者面临资金周转困难，不得不低价抛售房产，进一步推动房地产市场价格的下跌。

4. 金融危机对房地产市场投资信心的影响金融危机对投资者的信心有着重要影响。

金融危机不仅削弱了投资者对金融市场的信心，也影响了他们对房地产市场的信心。

由于经济的不稳定和金融环境的不确定性，投资者往往会对房地产市场投资持观望态度，从而增加了市场的不确定性。

5. 金融危机对房地产市场的机会与挑战尽管金融危机对房地产市场造成了一系列的负面影响，但也同时带来了一些机会与挑战。

首先，在金融危机之后，房地产市场的价格可能会下跌，为有购买能力的人提供了购买房产的机会。

其次，金融危机也可能加速市场结构和调整，推动行业的洗牌和整合。

金融危机对房地产业的影响金融危机是指由于金融机构出现系统性风险而引发的金融市场崩溃，世界各地的经济都可能受到其冲击。

房地产业作为全球经济的重要组成部分，也无法避免金融危机的影响。

本文将探讨金融危机对房地产业的影响，并分析可能出现的一些变化。

一、金融危机对销售市场的影响金融危机的出现往往会导致人们对经济前景的担忧，这种担忧会对房地产销售市场产生直接影响。

首先，由于人们对未来的经济不确定性，他们可能会更加谨慎地购买房地产。

此外，金融危机往往导致银行对于房地产贷款的紧缩，使得购房者难以获得贷款，从而降低了购房的意愿。

因此，金融危机往往会导致房地产销售市场的疲软。

二、金融危机对价格的影响金融危机会对房地产市场价格产生重要的影响。

一方面，房地产市场的疲软会导致供过于求的局面，从而使得价格下跌。

购房者会更倾向于观望，等待价格下降再入市，这进一步扩大了供大于求的现象。

另一方面，房地产开发商也面临资金链紧张的问题，他们可能会采取减价的方式促销，以尽快变现。

因此，金融危机会导致房地产市场价格的下降。

三、金融危机对土地市场的影响金融危机对土地市场也会产生重要影响。

由于经济的不确定性，开发商会更加谨慎地购买土地，这减少了土地市场的交易量。

另外，金融危机导致资金链紧张，开发商面临着较大的融资压力，从而限制了他们对土地的购买能力。

因此，金融危机可能会导致土地市场的疲软。

四、金融危机对投资市场的影响房地产作为一种投资工具，会受到金融危机的影响。

一方面，金融危机导致股市下跌和金融市场动荡，投资者可能会将资金从金融市场转移到相对稳定的房地产市场，以寻求保值增值的机会。

这可能促使房地产市场的投资需求增加。

另一方面，金融危机也可能导致投资者对房地产市场的担忧，他们可能会减少对房地产的投资，转而选择其他避险资产。

综上所述，金融危机对房地产业产生了重要的影响。

它对销售市场、价格、土地市场和投资市场都带来了一定的变化。

房地产行业应该密切关注金融危机的动态，及时调整策略，以应对可能出现的市场变化。

全球金融危机对中国房地产市场的影响近年来，全球金融危机对各行各业都产生着不小的影响，其中最明显的之一就是对房地产市场的影响。

中国作为一个快速发展的经济体，在这次金融危机中同样受到了不小的冲击。

那么，全球金融危机对中国房地产市场究竟造成了什么影响呢？一、销售放缓全球金融危机对中国房地产市场最直接的影响就是带来了销售放缓的现象。

受金融危机影响，全球经济不景气，外资流入中国的投资也有所减少，这就导致了房地产市场的销售放缓。

此外，随着金融危机的发展，许多企业的生产减少，导致了员工的裁员和失业率的上升。

这也导致了人们购买住房的积极性下降，加剧了房地产销售放缓。

二、价格下降由于销售放缓，以及政府的调控政策，中国房地产市场的价格也出现了下降的趋势。

而由于过去几年来房价一直处于高位，导致很多人购买房屋时负担过重，这也就加剧了价格下降的影响。

此外，由于金融危机的持续性导致了全球经济萎缩，中国出口也受到了较大的影响，这意味着人们购买力的下降，也会影响房地产市场价格。

三、资金链断裂随着金融危机的不断发展，中国房地产市场的资金链也有所断裂。

过去几年里，中国的房地产市场一度呈现出资金过热的现象，而这次金融危机则打破了这一局面。

许多房地产企业陷入了财务困境，为了维持资金链，不得不大规模借贷和卖地。

这就使得房地产市场的供应过剩，从而影响了价格和销售。

四、政策调控为了缓解金融危机对中国房地产市场的影响，政府也不断推出了相关的调控政策。

例如，在今年4月，中国人民银行宣布实施商业性个人住房公积金缴存比例下调政策，以缓解房贷压力。

同时，还有一系列政策措施出台，以促进房地产市场的健康稳定发展。

总的来说，全球金融危机对中国房地产市场的影响是广泛而深远的。

尽管市场出现了波动，但政府的调控政策和经济基本面的良好趋势也为中国房地产市场的发展带来了一定的保障。

未来，我们也需要根据市场情况和政策调控情况，适时调整投资策略，以实现房地产市场的健康发展。

保险金融房产课件课件：保险、金融与房产教学内容：1.保险的基本概念与原理2.金融市场的功能和运作3.房地产市场的特点与投资方式教学准备：1.教学投影仪或电子白板2.讲义和练习题3.实例分析和案例研究4.学生互动讨论的环境教学目标：1.了解保险的存在意义以及风险管理的重要性2.理解金融市场对经济发展的影响和作用3.掌握房地产市场的运作机制和投资策略4.培养学生的风险意识和理财能力设计说明：本课程通过结合理论与实践，介绍保险、金融和房产三个重要领域的知识。

通过讲解原理、示范实例和案例分析，帮助学生更好地理解相关概念和运作机制，培养学生在保险、金融和房产方面的基础知识和思维能力。

教学过程：1.保险部分：–介绍保险的定义和基本原理–讲解不同类型的保险和其应用场景–实例分析让学生更好地理解保险的重要性和作用2.金融部分：–介绍金融市场的定义和功能–解释股票、债券和基金等金融工具的特点和作用–分析金融危机对经济的影响，并讨论风险管理的重要性3.房产部分：–介绍房地产市场的特点和分类–解释购房和投资房产的基本原则–分析不同投资策略的风险与回报课后反思：通过本次课程，学生对保险、金融和房产三个重要领域的知识有了初步了解。

课程设计中融入了实例分析和案例研究，帮助学生将理论与实践相结合，提高了他们的学习兴趣和参与度。

但在教学过程中，可能还需要更多实例和案例来加强学生对知识的理解和应用能力。

此外，针对学生的不同水平，可以适当调整教学内容的深度和难度，以提高教学效果。

教学内容：1.保险的基本概念与原理2.金融市场的功能和运作3.房地产市场的特点与投资方式教学准备：1.教学投影仪或电子白板2.讲义和练习题3.实例分析和案例研究4.学生互动讨论的环境教学目标：1.了解保险的存在意义以及风险管理的重要性2.理解金融市场对经济发展的影响和作用3.掌握房地产市场的运作机制和投资策略4.培养学生的风险意识和理财能力设计说明：本课程通过结合理论与实践，介绍保险、金融和房产三个重要领域的知识。

ChapterⅠ Introduction1.1 Brief Introduction of the Financial CrisisThe sub-loan crisis is also called as the subprime mortgage crisis and translated as the subprime lending crisis. It refers to a financial storm that occurred in the United States due to the bankruptcy of the sub-mortgage agencies, the forced closing of the investment funds, and the severe turbulence of the stock market. It led to the crisis in lack of liquidity at the world's major financial markets. The U.S. "Sub-Loan Crisis" began to emerge from the spring of 2006. From August of 2007, it started to sweep through the United States, the European Union, Japan, and other major financial markets in the world.Sub-loan means "subprime mortgage loan". “Sub” means the poor side corresponding to “high” and “excellent”, while in the "sub-loan crisis" it refers to the low credit and low debt-repaying capacity.Subprime mortgage loan is a high-risk and high-yield industry, which refers to the loans offered by a number of lending institutions to the borrowers with poor credit and low income. Comparing to the traditional standard mortgage loans, the subprime mortgage loans demand low levels on the borrowers’ credit history and repaying ability, but its corresponding lending rate is much higher than the normal mortgage loans. Those who are refused on high-grade mortgage loans by the bank for their bad credit history or weak repaying ability may apply for the subprime mortgage loans to buy houses.When the house price is going up, the subprime mortgage loans business is booming. Even if the borrower’s cash flow can not repay the loan, they may obtain re-loans from the value-added real estate to fill the gap. However, when the house price maintains or goes down, there will be a funding gap and then the bad debts.The subprime mortgage loan is a kind of housing mortgages abroad, to supply loans to the people with less income or lower-level credit history. The reason for supplying loans to these people is that the lending institutions can receive a mortgage interesthigher than the good credit mortgage. When the house prices rise, the loans will have no problems as a result of adequate value in pledge; but when the house prices fall, value in pledge is no longer sufficient, while the mortgager has less income, thus the loan contract may be breached and the house may be returned to the bank. It will cause the increase in the bad debts of the mortgager, the collapsed cases of the mortgage providers and the risks in the financial markets.1.2 Importance of Real Estate Industry on Beijing's GDP(Proportion)The added value of real estate industry accounts for more than 5% of the gross domestic product (GDP) in our country. As a pillar industry, it has played an important role in the national economy.Yu Xiuqin, the spokeswoman of Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics said on October 14, 2004, that Beijing’s GDP in the first quarter increased 13% over the same period of the previous year. The released Real Estate Investment Report by the Fixed Assets Investment Division of Beijing Municipal Development and Reform Commission on October 15 indicated that the investment growth rate in the first three quarters reduced to 20.3% from 40.6% in the first quarter, "ranking in a more reasonable range." But the Report also pointed out that the great dropping in the real estate investment "leading indicators (land development, etc.)” undoubtedly affected the potential growth of investment in real estate. The delayed impact from macro-control measures shall be paid attentions to." This Report obviously reminded that the development and investment in real estate may maintain the downward trend due to the impact of macro-control, and it may further have a certain impact on Beijing’s economic growth.What impact can macro-control br ing on Beijing’s GDP? Ding Xiangyang, Director of Beijing Municipal Development and Reform Commission, said when he reported to Beijing People's Congress Standing Committee on the implementation of nationaleconomic and social development plan during the first half year, that a series of land policies in Beijing such as the moratorium on agricultural land requisition, the ceasing of agreed land transfer, and the clean-up of investment projects in development zones, as well as the macro-control, had probably effected an investment of about RMB 120 billion yuan, with about 2-3 percentage points on affecting the annual economic growth in the next few years. The Report of the Fixed Assets Investment Division finally showed that from the investment in recent years, the proportion of real estate investment had always been maintained at above 55%, which did not match the direction of industrial restructuring on developing high-tech industries and modern manufacturing sectors. In order to maintain the consecutive and stable economic growth of the city and optimize the industrial structure, it is necessary to intensify the investment structure adjustment and increase the proportion of industrial investment, especially under the circumstances that the potentials in the real estate industry are affected."We can see such a logic relationship: the real estate investment maintains a high proportion in recent years, while the macro-control reduces the real estate investment growth rate, which will annually decrease several p ercentage points of Beijing’s GDP in the next few years. Real estate has an extraordinary impact on Beijing's economy. The proportion of real estate investment is too large? According to the planning of National Development and Reform Commission, Beijing City has cleaned up the fixed assets projects in the city. From the information of Beijing Municipal Development and Reform Commission, there are more than 6000 projects being cleaned up, in which more than 600 projects involved in violations. Among them, there are 53 projects being stopped the construction or cancelled and 554 projects being suspended the construction for rectification, with a total investment amount of RMB 164 billion yuan, accounting for 1/5 of the total number in our country. From the project clean-up situation, there is still more than 50% of investment concentrated in the real estate field among all the city's investment projects being constructed or planned for construction. Figures show that the real estate investment in Beijingaccounts for 56.5% of the total investment in the entire society, far exceeding the national average level of 18%. The Report of the Fixed Assets Investment Division of Beijing Municipal Development and Reform Commission suggests that the proportion of real estate investment is too large, "and this does not match the direction of industrial restructuring on developing high-tech industries and modern manufacturing sectors."However, Ren Zhiqiang, President of Huayuan Group who researches much on the economic indexes said, "Beijing originally has a lot of lands for use, but the Capital has not implemented constructions for a long time, and now the construction develops after conquering great difficulties, a higher proportion of real estate investment is normal." Professor Y e Jianping, Head of the Land Management Division of Renmin University of China, considered that demands for housing and the supply in Beijing in recent years had promoted the proportion growth of investment, although this proportion of 56.5% was much higher than the international average level. However, it is very difficult to evaluate whether it is right or not at special stages in a specific period." Nevertheless, there must be problems if such proportion maintains in a long period." Someone in the Fixed Assets Investment Division of Beijing Municipal Development and Reform Commission said that a higher proportion in real estate investment has certain rationality at the present stage on accelerating urban transformation, urbanization and economic growth. And now all aspects of the real estate industry are still within the safety line in general. A large number of bubble phenomenon such as housing vacancy or price skyrocketing have not occurred. But he also pointed out at the same time that it was very easy to emerge bubbles as the real estate industry was greatly affected by the policy. Therefore Beijing, as a large-sized city, if the proportion of real estate investment is too large, the city’s whole economy will accordingly become more vulnerable.Who is the largest contributor to GDP? The official data from Beijing Municipal Development and Reform Commission show that the direct pulling role of real estate on Beijing’s GDP is between 5% and 10%. Experts believe that the direct contributionof the real estate industry to GDP completely results from the demand growth in the real estate market. It is reported that the volume of demolition in Beijing reduces at the annual rate of 20% for 5 consecutive years. There were about 100,000 removing households in Beijing 5 years ago, but in 2004 there were only 20,000. In the past a considerable portion of the demand in Beijing real estate market consists of urban renewal, infrastructure construction as well as a large number of demolitions invested by the government. Now although the government demolitions decline a lot, the consumption amount has not reduced, thus the real estate market remains a strong demand. "With this demand, the relatively high proportion of real estate in GDP is quite normal, because Beijing's real estate is not for Beijing City only, but for the whole country and even the world."In addition to the pulling role of the strong demands in real estate market on Beijing’s GDP, it is well known that the real estate industry drives its upstream and downstream industries. Someone in Beijing Municipal Development and Reform Commission disclosed: "According to the sales estimation, the proportion of real estate and the relevant industries such as its driven raw materials and service industry is about 1:1.2." "Real estate investment can drive a dozen of or a hundred of related industries." Ren Zhiqiang had his personal experience. He considered that from an investment view, the real estate industry could stimulate many affiliated industries, thus it had a great impact on the whole GDP. But he also said that the current method of calculating GDP was on the basis of the net investment amount, excluding the consumption, whereas the related consumption of real estate such as second-hand housing transaction was a very important part of the real estate industry. Therefore he thought that the statistical methods on GDP was not entirely correct, which could not calculate accurately the specific contribution value of the real estate industry. What he implicated was that: the present statistics were incomplete, and the polling function of the real estate industry on GDP had been underestimated.Macro-control on the balance beam: more than one expert warned that the long-term development of a city could not rely on continuous investment though real estateplayed an important role in driving the fixed assets investment and GDP. It should develop more industries. Only the driving industries can bring sustainable development, no matter what it is the first, second or third industry. Someone in the Investment Division of Beijing Municipal Development and Reform Commission introduced that for the adjustment of investment structure, the Municipal Development and Reform Commission at present had established a long-term guideline aiming at reducing the proportion of real estate in the fixed assets investment in Beijing: to change the structure with so large real estate investment at present by increasing the investment on other industries and fields, rather than limiting the current real estate projects, in order to increase the growth points of the city and avoid large effects on the whole economy resulted from the changing real estate industry. At the same time, we shall strengthen market monitoring and analysis, guide the restructuring of real estate products, focus on developing the mid-priced residential houses, and expand the size of second-hand housing market etc. "But the government has the responsibility to control the real estate for avoiding major fluctuations." The staff in the Investment Division of the Development and Reform Commission said that people in the real estate industry were more psychologically vulnerable to the effects of the outside world. Therefore the misconduct may result in insufficient investment in real estate, declining engineering volume, effecting the development of the relevant service and raw material industries, and finally directly or indirectly affecting the entire GDP growth." So the real estate investment, no matter it is up or down, should be a smooth process. It shall follow the principle of ensuring a smooth and stable development in real estate, to prevent the sharp ups and downs." The information on our country’s real estate and construction of 2007 shows that there are 63,000 real estate development enterprises in 2007, with a total employment of 1,720,000 people; the completed investment on real estate development is RMB 2.5289 trillion yuan, with an increase rate of 30. 2%.Statistics show that the asset-liability ratio of China's real estate development enterprise in 2007 was 74.4%; the real estate development enterprises realized a totalprofit of RMB 290 billion yuan, with an increase rate of 48.4%.The released information also shows that China's real estate industry in 2007 still has problems such as irrational housing supply structure, high housing prices and so on. Statistics show that in 2007 the affordable housing investment accounts for 4.6% in the commercial residential investment, reducing 0.5 percentage points; residential housing under 90 square meters only accounts for 23.3% in the commercial residential housing; the real estate sales areas reduced a lot at the end of the year.ChapterⅡ Financial CrisisThe real estate industry is the leading industry of China's national economy, which ranks a decisive position in the modern social and economic life. After more than ten years of development, China's real estate industry is in the transition period towards to a large-scaled, branding and standardized operation. The growth means of the real estate industry is changing the focus on from speed and scale to benefit and market segmentation, and the relied aspects from the government’s policy c ontrol to market regulation and corporate self-regulation. In the first half of 2006, the rigid housing demand in Beijing released a lot, and the supply in the commercial forward delivery housing market turned on a recovering trend. There were four features showed in Beijing’s real estate market in 2006: the investment growth in real estate recovered and the residential investment increased a lot; new construction area increased fast, but the completion area of residential buildings reduced; the sales in the housing market boomed, but the vacant space lessened; the residential price index continued to increase, but at a stable rate.Beijing’s investment in real estate increases rapidly. From January to June in 2006, the completed investment in real estate development in Beijing was RMB 64.01 billion yuan, increasing 20.8% over the same period in the previous year, with an increased rate of 12.7 percentage points. From January to June in 2006, the completedland development area of the real estate development enterprises in Beijing reached 1,964,000 square meters, increasing 130% over the same period in the previous year; the vacancy space decreased for the flourishing market demand and supply reduction. At the end of June in 2006, the vacancy space of commercial housing in Beijing covered an area of 9,652,000 square meters, with 4,090,000 square meters less than that at the beginning of the year, with a decreasing rate of 29.8%. From January to June in 2006, the fund in place of Beijing’s real estate developmen t enterprises was RMB 126.52 billion yuan, increasing 20.3% over the same period in the previous year, in which the financial loans was RMB 33.95 billion yuan, increasing 40.1% over the same period in the previous year. It accounted for 26.8% of the fund in place that year, raising 3.8 percentage points.Since 2006, the housing sales price index in Beijing City showed a slight upward trend. From January to June in 2006, the total price index of newly-built commercial houses accumulated at 107.7%, increasing 0.6 percentage points than that of the previous month, and increasing 1 percentage point than that at the same period of the previous year; of which the residential price index accumulated at 108.5%, increasing 0.5 percentage points than that of the previous month, and increasing 1.3 percentage points than that at the same period of the previous year; the second-hand residential price index accumulated at 109.5%, almost the same as that of the previous month, and increasing 3 percentage points than that at the same period of the previous year. The price increasing rate of ordinary residential housing exceeded that of the high-grade residential houses. From January to June in 2006, the average residential price index in Beijing’s newly-built residential houses accumulated at 110%, exceeding 4.2 percentage points than that of the high-grade residential houses.The competition in Beijing’s real estate industry has become increasingly fierce and white-hot. As for the developers, Sunco’s entry into Beijing, the establishment of Beijing Capital Development Holding Group, together with the macro-control policy of the past two years, the rising interest rates, 8.31 Land Revolution (The agreed land transfer was prohibited since August 31, 2004), the introductions of the State’s 8Articles and 6 Measures on controlling the real estate market, the entry of overseas real estate funds, all of these made the competition war even more interesting. Accompanied by the clank of horns, the developers are making every effort to win in the real estate market. The agency industry has also begun the price war. In the future the industries will be fully integrated, which is a general trend.ChapterⅢ Overall Conditions of Beijing Real Estate after theFinancial CrisisComparing with the previous two years, Beijing’s real estate market in 2008 had much more challenges. The Olympic opportunity existed with the financial crisis and the real estate market advanced slowly in the year. In the first half of the year, the theory of the turning point in real estate market was very popular, "the concept of the Olympic Games" deeply rooted in people’s hearts did not bring about the active transactions in the real estate market. "Wait-and-see" has become the pronoun of the real estate market. In the second half after the Olympic Games, the real estate transactions had not fully warmed up, and the global financial crisis came. Thus the second-hand housing prices began to fall, and the government decreased the deposit and lending rates to stimulate the market consumption. The redemption and reform policies in the second-hand housing transaction taxes and fees came out, but they had no obvious effects on the one-year sluggish real estate market. In a word, the Olympic Games opportunity and the financial crisis existed together in 2008, and Beijing’s second-hand housing market was on the fence.In 2009, the global economy may appear the first negative growth after the Second World War. In addition, the economic recession, low inflation, the release of potential risks in the economic and financial fields and so on, reveal that the world’s economic recession and risk are amplifying step by step. In order to stabilize the financialmarkets and stimulate the economic growth, each country has introduced measures. However, the economic recovering signs in major economic unions are still rare. From the latest data of 2009, the economic recession of major developed economies is deepening, and the financial crisis is sweeping rapidly from the developed countries to the developing countries with a growing impact on the global real economy. Confronted with the changing economic situation and the unprecedented challenges brought about by the international financial crisis, China has begun a new round of macro-controls with unprecedented efforts. The implementation of an active fiscal policy and an appropriately loose monetary policy conveys a clear signal: the macro-controlling measures on expanding domestic demand, maintaining the growth and adjusting the structure will help China's economy come out of the woods and enter into the new stage of development. On September 15, 2008 the central bank announced that the lending rate was firstly down after 6 years. In November of 2008, ten measures to expand domestic demand were made out. The Central Economic Work Conference reaffirmed the goal of guaranteeing the growth. The revitalization policies on ten industries policy were intensely approved. Facing the crisis, China is taking a decisive and strong action.ChapterⅣ The Real Estate Industry in Beijing the FinancialCrisis4.1 The Impact on House Prices and Sales V olume4.1.1 People’s Living StandardsBeijing residents have a proximate RMB20, 000 average total incomes for household, specially speaking, it is RMB19, 533.3, which goes up 14.1% than the previous year. The working salaries are the major one in household income, and it has a RMB13,666.3 working salaries per capita.4.1.2 Macro-ControlHere comes on the "inviting, auction, and nominating" policy from government, all the land should be through the inviting public bidding, auction and nominal quotation before joining the market in the "831 the end".1). 2004 in land policy, there are two forms of constructional land, one is allocation, and the other is making agreement to sell.From August 31st, 2004, all the operational land must be sold by public auction. In other words, before in August 31st, 2004, every provinces, regions and municipalities are banned to use the historical legacy issues to sell the usufruct of the national land in the agreement way, protocol selling the land is prevailing once, but it was prohibited by the government. The document also stipulates that after 31 August, 2004, developers are required to pay the land transfer payments in time, and if the lands are not developed within two years, the government will withdraw it. “8.31" is also treated by the public opinion in China as "the real estate sector of the agrarian revolution" and "Sunshine of Lands".2).Financial policy: the People's Bank put into practice the purposes of including raising deposit and loan rates, increasing the statutory reserve rate as well as other industry-specific credit policy and other means to tighten the flexibility of the market, and also reducing the monetary supply thereby curbing inflation so as to achieve the purpose of tightening monetary policy.3). Sales policy: the pre-sale system is practicableThe overall circumstances of macro-manipulation:<1>.The circumstance is squeezing at the two ends: the standards of land and thepurchase of houses are undergoing the compression, for example, less than 70 percent houses are constructed under 90 m2 according to the requirements.<2>. Middle-squeeze: For example, tightening monetary policy.4.1.3 Developers:The prices of commercial houses are formed by land, construction and raw materials. After 2007, it costs RMB10, 000 to buy 1m2 of lands, which give rise to4.2 The Effect of Financial Crisis to Consumers, Policies and Developers:4.2.1 Consumers:The restriction of people who purchase the economically affordable houses. The listed trades, however, have a limit of the autonomy of more than five years, in the past, the original real estate is treated as an investment, but now it can be only used as personal residences.4.2.2 The Current Policy (After the Financial Crisis)1).Land policy: reducing the land supply, majority of them are policy-based houses (both affordable housing and limited room)2).Financial policy: which is used to control the loan. Facing the outbreak of the serious financial crisis, the financial sectors should try their best to reduce the risk and preserve their original property.3). Sales policies: which is aimed at the developers, they are not allowed to sale inadvance. After 2008, if meeting the demand of the national pre-sale conditions, which is, obtaining the evidence of the land, land permits, planning permits and construction permits are qualify to apply for the pre-sale permit.Secondly, restrictions on second-hand housing market are indispensible, such as, people should own the affordable housing more than five years before they can conduct transactions, which controls of the market, the phenomenon of real estate speculation and building speculation, and thus prices will decline.4.2.3 Aiming for Developers:After the outbreak of the financial crisis, great changes have taken place in consumers’ mind, they unconsciously develop a minds et of waiting to buy with cash in hand, developers are also holding a breath and waiting for the rise of the prices by rare sale, because if the original land cannot be sold, it will certainly have the impact on the return of funds, thereby they are unable to develop new properties, which results in a vicious circle. That is, the originally land bought from the market with a price will not be able to develop, which caused cash flow difficulties. Since October, with the financial crisis becomes increasingly intense, the consumers have more seriously wait-and-see attitude to the real estate market, meanwhile, the government, however, lowers the loan interest rate twice, moreover, it simultaneously issued a policy about the reform of taxation expenses of second-hand houses, which, to some extents, stimulates the recovery of property market.ChapterⅤ Conclusion5.1 Consequences and T endencyThere are three years that Beijing housing sale market has been undergoing declining. Nevertheless, thanks to the consecutive reduction of the interest for five times last second half year and a series of provoking house-purchase policies from government, the growth of the first-quarter appears this year.In 2008, the Wall Street crisis in the United States was not only quickly spread to the global financial markets, but also extended from the virtual economy to the real economy. What is worse, the unprecedented financial crisis was most likely to expand into the American dollar crisis and the economic recession, the worst pa rt is that the risks, which the global economy may get caught into a severe recession, are skyrocketing day by day. With the huge effect of the American Financial Crisis, on the one hand, the global financial markets were fiercely shaken, one the other hand, the primary stocks were overwhelmed in a vast scale, fear and a crisis of confidence over the whole market. Although the United States carried out a large-scale rescue package, it might still failed to prevent the slump the global stock markets. Under the U.S. financial crisis, the world's major financial institutions have experienced several consecutive quarters of declining profits and growing for asset write-downs and credit losses. More seriously, the current major economies decline in extremely high speed, signing the obvious economic recession over the world.Because of the effects of the global financial crisis, Chinese economy was decelerating the growth rate. Besides, there are still some factors, such as increasing cost and decreasing profit etc., have already have impact on the investment willingness and ability of some enterprises, thus restrict the rising consuming. As far as now, some essential Chinese industries are running down, just like steel, electric power, vehicle industries. In order to resist the adverse effect of international。

房地产市场与金融风险的关系在当代社会中，房地产市场被视为经济发展的晴雨表。

然而，房地产市场也是金融风险的重要来源之一。

本文将探讨房地产市场和金融风险之间的关系，并分析其潜在的影响。

首先，房地产市场的波动性对金融体系的稳定性有着重要影响。

房地产市场的繁荣与萧条往往会引发金融风险的蔓延。

当房价剧烈上涨时，可能导致购房者借贷过度，产生过高的杠杆比率，进而威胁银行体系的稳定。

一旦房地产市场出现下跌，购房者负债过重，可能出现无力偿还贷款的情况，从而引发银行不良贷款风险。

此外，房地产行业的垄断性和不合理的市场价格也可能导致金融体系的不稳定。

如果开发商为了追逐高额利润，虚报房产价格，投资者可能会在市场泡沫破灭时遭受损失，进而引发金融风险问题。

其次，房地产市场的投机性使其面临着金融风险的挑战。

房地产市场的繁荣吸引了大量投资者，但这也同时加剧了金融风险的存在。

投机者的入市行为往往导致市场过热，进而形成泡沫。

一旦泡沫破灭，投资者可能面临巨大的损失，从而引发金融风险。

此外，房地产市场的投机性还可能引发投资需求的不稳定。

由于投机者的存在，房价可能无法反映真实的供需关系，从而导致不合理的价格波动。

这种价格波动不仅给购房者带来不确定性，也可能对金融体系的稳定性构成威胁。

此外，房地产市场的融资贷款也是金融风险的重要来源之一。

众所周知，房地产开发商需要大量的资金来进行项目开发。

他们往往通过银行贷款和债券发行等方式来融资。

然而，当房地产市场出现下滑时，开发商可能无法按时偿还贷款，从而引发金融风险的传导。

此外，房地产市场的融资也可能导致信贷市场的不稳定。

当银行过度依赖房地产行业时，一旦房地产市场出现问题，银行的资金链可能会受到影响，从而对整个金融体系造成巨大冲击。

然而，房地产市场与金融风险之间的关系并非完全消极。

适度的房地产市场可以促进经济发展，并提供贷款机会。

通过购房和投资房地产，个人和企业可以以房产作为资产抵押来获得贷款，从而提升其经济活力。

金融业协助政策执行
金融机构在政策执行过程中，提供必要的资金支持和专 业指导，确保政策的有效实施。
政策调整与优化
金融业反馈市场动态
金融业通过监测和分析市场数据，为政策制推动政策优化
基于市场反馈和实际操作经验，金融业提出政策优化 的方案和建议，提高政策效果。
政策监督与评估
稳定市场波动
风险管理
金融业通过提供各种风险管理工具和服务，帮助房地产投资者和开发商应对市场风险，减少市场波动对房地产市 场的影响。
资金监管
金融业对资金流向进行监管，确保房地产市场资金来源合法、透明，防止市场出现过度投机和泡沫，从而稳定市 场波动。
提高市场效率
信息披露
金融业通过信息披露制度，要求房地产开发 商和投资者公开相关信息，提高市场透明度 ，降低信息不对称，提高市场效率。
降低融资成本
金融市场的竞争和金融创新有助于降 低房地产融资成本，提高投资回报率 。
投资决策
市场分析
金融业通过提供市场分析、趋势预测 等服务，帮助投资者判断房地产市场 的走势，制定合理的投资策略。
项目评估
金融业对房地产项目进行全面的评估 ，包括财务状况、风险因素等方面， 为投资者提供决策依据。
风险管理
风险识别
金融业通过风险评估工具和方法，帮助投资者识别潜在的风险因素，如市场风险 、信用风险等。
风险控制
金融业提供风险分散、对冲等工具和服务，帮助投资者降低风险敞口，保障投资 安全。
资产评估
价值评估
金融业通过专业的资产评估方法和技术 ，对房地产资产进行客观、公正的价值 评估。
VS
资产优化
金融业提供资产优化建议，帮助投资者实 现资产的保值增值，提高投资回报。

土地储备贷款风险
地方政府为推进土地储备和基础设施 建设，大量举债，其中部分债务存在 违约风险，可能波及金融体系。
个人住房贷款风险
随着房价上涨，个人住房贷款规模不 断扩大，但部分购房者还款能力有限 ，存在违约风险。
市场波动对金融体系影响
01
02
03
房地产市场波动
房价大幅上涨或下跌都会 对金融体系产生冲击，影 响银行信贷资产质量和抵 押物价值。
支持优质房地产企业通过发行债券、股票等方式 在资本市场融资，拓宽融资渠道。
03 金融监管
加强对房地产金融市场的监管，规范市场秩序， 防范金融风险。
02
房地产金融政策面临问题
信贷风险问题
房地产开发贷款风险
部分开发商过度依赖银行贷款，一旦 市场波动或销售不畅，可能引发连锁 反应，导致银行信贷资产质量下降。
供需关系失衡
房地产市场供给与需求之间的不 平衡是导致市场波动的主要原因 之一。当供大于求时，房价下跌
；当求大于供时，房价上涨。
政策调控影响
政府对房地产市场的调控政策对 市场波动具有重要影响。例如， 限购、限贷、土地供应等政策的
调整都会对市场产生影响。
金融市场变化
金融市场的变化也会对房地产市 场产生影响。例如，利率的变化 、贷款政策的调整等都会影响购
信贷结构调整与优化建议
Байду номын сангаас信贷结构调整方向
优化信贷期限结构，增加中长期贷款 投放；调整信贷行业投向，支持优质 房地产企业和项目。
优化建议
建立动态调整机制，根据市场变化和 风险状况及时调整信贷政策；加强与 其他金融机构的合作，共同防范和化 解信贷风险。
市场波动对金融体系影响及
04

房地产的金融风险及防范化解措施大家好，今天我们来聊聊房地产的金融风险及防范化解措施。

房子是老百姓最大的资产，也是最容易让人陷入困境的东西。

那么，我们该如何在这个充满变数的市场中，避免金融风险呢？接下来，我将从以下几个方面给大家分享一些心得体会。

我们要了解房地产市场的基本情况。

俗话说：“知己知彼，百战不殆。

”在投资房地产之前，我们要对市场有一个全面的了解，包括房价走势、政策调控、供需关系等。

这样，我们才能在投资过程中做出明智的选择，避免盲目跟风，降低金融风险。

我们要关注房地产金融产品的收益率。

市面上有很多房地产金融产品，如信托、基金、私募股权等。

我们在选择这些产品时，要注意分析其收益率和风险。

一般来说，收益率越高，风险也越大。

所以，我们要根据自己的风险承受能力，合理配置资产，实现收益最大化的尽量降低金融风险。

我们要学会分散投资。

俗话说：“不要把所有的鸡蛋放在一个篮子里。

”在投资房地产时，我们要遵循这个道理，将资金分散投资到不同的地区、不同的项目上。

这样，即使某个项目出现问题，我们的整体投资也不会受到太大影响，从而降低金融风险。

我们还要关注房地产市场的政策动态。

政策的变化往往会对房地产市场产生重大影响。

我们在投资房地产时，要密切关注政策动向，以便及时调整投资策略。

我们还可以通过参加一些行业交流活动，如中国房地产业发展论坛等，了解行业最新动态，提高自己的投资水平。

我们要学会理性看待房价波动。

房价的涨跌是市场供求关系的反映。

在房价上涨时，我们要保持冷静，不要盲目跟风；在房价下跌时，我们也不要过于悲观，要相信市场总会有起色的时候。

我们还要关注政策调控的影响，做好长期持有的准备。

在房地产市场中，我们要时刻保持警惕，关注市场动态，理性分析投资风险。

只有这样，我们才能在这片波诡云谲的市场中，稳扎稳打，实现财富增值。

这里的建议仅供参考，具体操作还需结合个人实际情况进行判断。

希望我的分享能对大家有所帮助，谢谢大家！。

次贷危机对我国房地产业的影响及启示美国次贷危机已经演化成了全球金融危机的导火索,本文在分析次贷危机对我国房地产业造成影响的基础上,分析了房地产泡沫生成的机理,并在此基础上提出了自己的模型,运用该模型对我国房地产进行了测度并得出结论,最后提出当前我国房地产业各相关方在次贷危机下的应对策略。

标签：次贷危机泡沫投机启示一、引言美国次贷危机是以美国房地产泡沫破灭为导火索,美国金融业产能过剩为核心原因的一场经济危机。

疾风骤雨般的美国次贷危机(Subprime Mortgage Crisis)已近三年了,在过去的两年中,次贷危机从美国金融业蔓延到美国实体经济,并进一步的危及到全球经济,对全球未来几年的经济前景造成了深远的影响。

回顾美国次贷危机爆发前后,也是我国房地产行业井喷与萧条快速转换的时期,次贷危机到底给我国房地产业带来了怎样的影响?次贷危机爆发三年后,我国房地产泡沫是否还存在?未来我们应该采取哪些积极地措施应对可能的风险?笔者尝试在本文中做出回答。

二、次贷危机对我国房地产业的影响分析在经济全球化和金融一体化的当今世界,这次由次贷危机引发的全球金融危机必然也会直接或间接对中国房地产市场产生深远的影响。

根据对区域房地产市场的调查,其影响渠道包括直接和间接两类。

1.直接的资金传导房地产行业虽说是属于第三产业,但却属于“资金密集型”行业,资金对于房地产行业的重要性可见一斑。

从外资投资来看,国外发生金融危机和经济动荡首先最直接的影响必然是外商延缓在我国房地产行业的投资进度乃至取消潜在的投资项目。

金融危机导致全球流动性收紧,尤其是处于重灾区的西方发达国家。

从房地产整个行业观察,近期如果人民币升值预期出现反转,极有可能出现较为集中的大规模境外资金抽逃,而即使是轻微程度的资金流出,都可能对目前处于脆弱平衡的我国房地产市场形成难以度量的冲击。

2.直接的需求传导时下全球金融危机已经引起实体经济的动荡,对我国而言,必然引发外部需求快速萎缩从而影响我国居民的收入水平和消费需求。

金融危机对房地产市场的影响在全球化的今天，金融危机越来越成为许多国家面临的共同问题。

金融危机不仅会对银行业、证券业等行业造成破坏性的影响，也会对房地产市场产生影响。

本文将从多个方面分析金融危机对房地产市场的影响，并提出相应的对策。

一、房地产市场的融资难度加大金融危机给银行业造成冲击，直接导致银行的贷款审批标准变严格，所以对于中小型房地产开发商而言，融资难度加大，房地产开发项目的资金链会变得紧张，这样也会对市场的供给和价格带来一定的影响。

对此，政府可以采取缓解措施，比如减免税费、降低房地产开发的融资门槛等方式，保障房地产开发商的融资渠道畅通，促进行业的发展。

二、房价下跌导致市场信心下降金融危机与房地产市场的关系是相互影响的。

如果金融危机导致股市暴跌，人们在保值方面会更偏向于购买房地产，这可能会使房价增长。

但是，如果金融危机导致市场信心下跌，导致房价下跌，购房者会感到被愚弄。

此时，如果市场信心下降，购房的人会减少，这就会对房地产市场形成一定压力。

政府可以通过稳定市场情绪和加强对市场的宣传、营销等方式，让购房者重新提振购房信心，从而推动市场回暖。

三、对不良资产的清理金融危机后，一些银行大量的不良资产出现，导致该银行在房地产市场方面的投资变得谨慎。

此外，由于银行行业大量不良资产的出现，银行也倾向于将贷款收敛到安全的房地产开发商和购房者中。

政府应该清理不良资产，让市场回归到正常的轨道上来。

对于那些持有不良资产的机构，政府应该采取积极的措施，比如重组和拆分等方式，将这些不良资产转变为有价值的东西，从而成为长期发展的基础。

四、加强行业合作房地产市场与金融行业有着千丝万缕的联系。

当金融行业受到的冲击达到一定程度时，房地产市场会难以避免地被波及。

如果房地产行业不存在信心缺失、市场化程度不足的问题，那么房地产市场就能够通过与金融行业合作，保持交锋，进一步发展和巩固。

因此，政府应鼓励房地产业参与金融产业的合作，共同打造互利共赢的产业生态。

2008金融危机对中国房地产行业的影响来源：一、金融危机前国内房地产市场状况2008年7月到10月,我在重庆房地产市场“一哥”—龙湖地产做置业顾问,有幸在一线见证了国内房地产市场的实际销售状况;我所在的项目是龙湖MOCO中心,一个占地26亩的小户型高层住宅,在毛坯房和延缓两年交房的条件下,还卖到了7000左右的均价,且不论重庆地区的人均收入在全国的靠后排名,单看这个销售价格已经超过了绝大部分老百姓的承受能力了,重庆地区的房市如此,就更不用讨论北京、上海、深圳等一级城市的房市了,其火爆程度可见一斑;金融危机在2008年逐渐向房地产等资金密集型行业产生影响,我们暂且先讨论2008年前的房地产市场情况;总体来看,2007年全国房地产市场供求两旺,房价涨幅比2006年有所增加,国房景气指数逐月上升达到近三年来的新高水平;其市场运行状况呈现以下三个特征：1、房地产开发企业购置土地面积出现近5年来首次大幅增加,土地价格快速上涨,涨幅达到5年来新高,高于同期房屋销售价格涨幅从全国数据来看, 2007年3月以来,房地产企业购置土地面积增幅逐月增加,1-10月同比增长%,增幅增加了近20个百分点;此外,2007年全国70个大中型城市土地交易价格出现大幅上涨,前3季度平均同比上涨%,高于同期房屋销售价格%的涨幅;其中,1-3季度各季度土地交易价格涨幅分别为%、%、15%,涨幅逐季增加达到2000年以来的最高涨幅;第四季度由于国家的调控交易价格略有下降;2、商品住宅市场景气旺盛带动整个房地产市场供求两旺,2007下半年房价涨幅逐月增加,创出近三年新高;商品住宅投资占房地产开发投资的比重超过70%,2007年商品住宅市场景气旺盛带动整个房地产市场供求两旺;1-10月,房地产开发完成投资亿元,同比增长%,增幅比去年同期增加个百分点,前10个月,房地产开发投资增幅逐月增加,由1-2月的%增加到1-10月的%,其中10月增幅为%,达到近三年来新高;1-10月,商品房施工面积、新开工面积和竣工面积分别同比增长%、%和%,增幅比去年同期分别增加个、4个和个百分点;1-10月,商品房销售面积同比增长%,增幅增加个百分点;其中,现房销售面积为同比增长%,增幅增加个百分点；期房销售面积同比增长%,增幅增加个百分点;2007年前4个月,国房景气指数持续下降,后7个月,国房景气指数快速上升;10月,国房景气指数为,达到近三年来的最高水平;3、住房保障体系进一步完善,商品住宅供给结构调整效果逐步显现在2007年,住房保障体系建设得到了中央政府前所未有的高度重视,各级地方政府的经济适用房和廉租房建设也逐步付诸实施;从商品住宅的供给结构来看,2007年以来,商品住宅市场结构调控的效果逐步显现,经济适用房和90平方米以下普通住宅在商品住宅中的投资比重分别由1-2月的%和%,提高到1-10月的%和%,90平方米以下住宅投资比重每月增加1个百分点左右;据初步统计,全国36个直辖市、计划单列市、省会城市,2006-2007年年度新开工商品住房中90平方米以下普通商品住房占总开发面积的%;二、金融危机形成及影响1、什么是次贷危机次贷即“次级按揭贷款”subprime mortgage loan,“次”的意思是指：与“高”、“优”相对应的,形容较差的一方,在“次贷危机”一词中指的是信用低,还债能力低;次级抵押贷款是一个高风险、高收益的行业,指一些贷款机构向信用程度较差和收入不高的借款人提供的贷款;与传统意义上的标准抵押贷款的区别在于,次级抵押贷款对贷款者信用记录和还款能力要求不高,贷款利率相应地比一般抵押贷款高很多;那些因信用记录不好或偿还能力较弱而被银行拒绝提供优质抵押贷款的人,会申请次级抵押贷款购买住房;在房价不断走高时,次级抵押贷款生意兴隆;即使贷款人现金流并不足以偿还贷款,他们也可以通过房产增值获得再贷款来填补缺口;但当房价持平或下跌时,就会出现资金缺口而形成坏账,形成次贷危机;2、金融危机的形成这次全球经融危机的源头是由美国的次贷危机所引发的;而美国次贷危机是产生的原因是由于美国房地产业泡沫破裂所导致的;描述一下这次次贷危机的演变过程:美国次债危机--美国信贷危机--全球信贷危机和美国经融危机--全球经融危机,最后影响全球实体经济;影响全球实体经济的后果就是全球经济增速放缓、人们消费欲望降低、企业盈利水平的下降、失业人口的增加、就这样一直的恶性循环下去,直到信贷危机结束才会慢慢有所好转3、经融危机对我国经济的影响1次贷危机主要影响我国出口;次贷危机引起美国经济及全球经济增长的放缓,对中国经济的影响不容忽视,而这其中最主要是对出口的影响;2007年,由于美国和欧洲的进口需求疲软,我国月度出口增长率已从2007年2月的%下降至12月的%;美国次贷危机造成我国出口增长下降,一方面将引起我国经济增长在一定程度上放缓,同时,由于我国经济增长放缓,社会对劳动力的需求小于劳动力的供给,将使整个社会的就业压力增加;2我国将面临通货膨胀和经济增长趋缓的双重压力;由于国际大宗商品价格居高不下,以及我国冰雪地震等自然灾害的影响,我国的农产品、生产资料、生活消费品等价格持续上涨,目前已形成成本推动型通货膨胀;2008年1—5月份累计,全国居民消费价格总水平同比上涨%,流通环节生产资料价格同比上涨%;同时,人民币升值又将进一步影响中国出口增长;最后,次贷危机将加大我国的汇率风险和资本市场风险;三、经融危机对中国房地产市场的打击1、2008年1-11国内房地产市场的运行状况1房地产开发完成情况;1-11月,全国完成房地产开发投资26546亿元,同比增长%,增幅比1-10月回落个百分点;1-11月,全国房地产开发企业房屋施工面积亿平方米,同比增长%；房屋新开工面积亿平方米,增长%；房屋竣工面积亿平方米,增长%;其中,住宅竣工面积亿平方米,增长5%;1-11月,全国房地产开发企业完成土地购置面积亿平方米,同比下降%；完成土地开发面积亿平方米,同比下降%;2商品房销售和空置情况;1-11月,全国商品房销售面积亿平方米,同比下降%;其中,商品住宅销售面积下降%；商品房销售额19261亿元,同比下降%;其中,商品住宅销售额下降%;截至11月末,全国商品房空置面积亿平方米,同比增长%,增幅比1-10月提高个百分点;其中,空置商品住宅7084万平方米,同比增长%,增幅提高个百分点;3房地产开发企业资金来源情况;1-11月,房地产开发企业本年资金来源33404亿元,同比增长%;其中,国内贷款6416亿元,增长%；企业自筹资金13444亿元,增长%；其他资金12942亿元,同比下降%;其中,个人按揭贷款3046亿元,下降%;470个大中城市房屋销售价格指数;11月份,全国70个大中城市房屋销售价格同比上涨%,涨幅比10月份低个百分点；环比下降%;新建住宅销售价格同比上涨%,涨幅比10月份低个百分点；环比下降%;5全国房地产开发景气指数;11月份,全国房地产开发景气指数为,比10月份回落点,比去年同期回落点;点评：从全国房地产开发景气指数及各项分类指数延续回落的态势来看,此轮房地产行业的调整仍在继续,房价同比涨幅已经回落到%,基本上与去年同期持平;在前段期间货币政策松动、地方政府及中央政府救市政策的不断刺激下,只有部分地区的成交量呈现明显回暖的趋势,如上海市、重庆市、广东省等11月商品房销售面积较10月分别增加了29%、40%和9%,但从全国来看,11月商品房销售面积较10月依然减少了3%;由此可以看出,尽管一系列政策的出台减少了购房者的支付成本,但短期来看对刺激消费需求释放的作用是有限的,消费者对房价继续下调的预期以及宏观经济的不确定性致使观望氛围依然浓郁;2、预计中国今后的房地产市场趋势总体来看,目前全国市场呈现量价齐跌的形态;从去年年底开始,中国房地产市场开始调整,今年以来下行速度加快,下滑幅度加大,房地产价格也随之开始回落;从区域上看,以深圳、广州为代表的珠三角城市最先开始调整,接着长三角、华北、中西部也开始调整;今后两年我国房地产市场走势非常不乐观;我们认为:2008年房屋成交量同比2007年将出现大幅下滑,估计萎缩3-4成,但由于全国房价拐点出现在第三季度,因此2008年全年房价同比2007年,依然呈正增长,不过涨幅将由2007年的18%商品房大幅回落到5%左右的可能性较大预计与2006年%的涨幅相近;至于2009年,全国房屋成交量将依然在低位徘徊,但全年成交价格将比2008年出现负增长;2010年全国楼市触底反弹的可能性最大四、中国房地产市场应该采取的措施从目前政府发布的救市政策来看,一是11月1日起首次购房契税降至1%；二是个人买卖住房暂免征印花税；三是个人卖房暂免征土地增值税；四是首套房首付比例降低至20%；五是公积金贷款利率下调%；六是商贷利率最高可享7折优惠；七是加大保障性住房建设规模;从近期政府出台的政策来看,主要是为了稳定楼市消费,减少消费者交易过程中的成本、税费以及减缓其购房压力;在当前市场环境下,住房需求无法得到释放的主要原因是首付及月供问题,房产新政则解决了刚性需求购房者的成本、压力等问题;各地地方政府已陆续落实政策实施,但市场信心较为不足,消费者对新政出台后反映较为冷淡;预计下阶段政府对房地产市场调控的主要方向可能是提升市场信心问题;提升房产市场信心可采取“组合拳形式”的政策来调控;新政以降低购房者置业成本为主要导向,虽然政府鼓励居民购房,但在全球经济形势不景气的局面下,购房者信心严重受挫;购房者信心不足反映到市场中,就是除了刚性需求少量释放外,改善型需求、多次置业需求及投资需求因其自身不缺乏住房而持币观望;多次置业者积聚着最多的社会财富,是城市经济发展的主要购买力,他们的观望必将影响整个房地产市场的发展;预计当前市场环境下,提升房产市场信心可能需要采取“组合拳形式”政策来调控;1、后期或将连续降息;贷款利率下调降低了企业贷款成本,但贷款利率微调对挽救低迷楼市的作用有限,国内房地产投资约占总投资额的1/4,仅次于制造业;在全球经济发展放慢的环境下,如果政府要保证经济平稳发展,对房地产信贷资金捆绑将有可能放松,从而刺激资本市场信心;2、二套住房限制的松绑;对居民首次购买普通自住房和改善型普通自住房的贷款需求,金融机构可在贷款利率和首付款比例上按优惠条件给予支持；对非自住房、非普通住房的贷款条件,金融机构适当予以提高;改善型普通自住房暗含了二套房,这等于是给二套房贷的即将松动埋下了伏笔;同时,多次置业者拥有城市最多的财富和资源,其对房地产市场的信心必将影响整体市场的信心提升问题;3、降低房产交易营业税;减免二手交易税是最直接受益的政策,交易成本可以大幅度降低,减税立竿见影的效果会出现在二手房市场,对于房地产市场的未来预期也会起到很大的稳定作用;4、购房落户政策;在当前市场环境下,部分地方政府出台购房落户政策似乎成为一种趋势,尤其在上海等一线城市将会刺激外地需求的释放;目前市场消费群体关注点集中在总价和首付上,所以购房落户政策要和首付、银行利率等下调政策配合或将发挥更好的效果;综上所述,中国房地产业发展走向将影响整体国民经济的发展,在全球经济陷入困境之时,市场信心的提升,楼市消费的稳定,并不是短时间内就可改变的;现阶段主要问题集中在如何恢复市场信心,从政策的出发点来看,政策的出台并不是为了刺激房价的上涨,而是为了促进消费,提升成交量,从而恢复消费者的购房信心;从政策对楼市的影响力度来看,目前的政策更多的是导向性的,表明原则性态度的,主要是因为房地产市场区域明显的差异化,决定了政策的出台必需结合当地实际情况,有针对性才能达到预期目标;。

金融危机对中国房地产市场影响的研究一、引言全球金融危机对全世界经济产生了不可估量的影响，而这种影响不仅仅限于金融行业，房地产行业同样也受到了波及。

在中国，由于经济制度的特殊性和位于全球经济的位置，房地产市场一直是许多人关注的焦点。

本文主要研究全球金融危机对中国房地产市场的影响和变化。

二、全球金融危机对中国市场的影响全球金融危机对中国经济的影响不仅局限于国内市场，同样影响了中国企业的海外经营和跨国并购，并对全球市场的流动性和稳定性造成严重影响。

同时，由于中国的大量外汇储备和近年来的经济增长，中国成为全球金融危机爆发后资本的主要吸引点。

与此同时，全球市场对中国业务的信心也得到了提高。

三、房地产市场受到的影响1. 价格金融危机后，银行不再像以前一样愿意贷款给房地产开发商，投资者变得谨慎，房价下跌。

截至 2020 年底，中国房价已连续三年下降。

同时，政府在全国各省市实施了房地产调控政策，如土地政策、房贷政策等措施限制了内地房地产市场。

2.交易量在全球金融危机爆发之前，中国的房地产市场交易量一直处于高位。

然而，由于危机期间产生的财务压力，投资者的需求变得谨慎，不敢冒险，导致交易量下降。

此后，中国房地产市场的交易量逐步恢复。

3.商业地产由于全球金融危机导致许多企业陷入困境，逾期还款或倒闭，商业地产租赁市场受到严重打击，这对整个房地产市场产生了负面影响。

4.高端市场在金融危机中，中国的高端房地产市场的确定性受到了不小的影响。

此时，国内外富人集中出售房地产资产，以应对危机。

导致合同不确定性和交易量的大幅下降。

四、政府应对的政策和策略为提高整个房地产市场的抗风险能力，中国政府开展了一系列政策来引导市场，稳定市场，包括：1. 基础设施建设：中国政府加大了基础设施建设的投资，以带动其他行业的发展，加快了房地产市场的建设。

2. 调控市场：多个市政府驱动了房地产投机市场的规范。

在土地管理、房贷和税收等方面禁止了投机性行为，并对购房人采取了严格的身份证和资产验证措施。

股市崩盘
投资者信心丧失，大量抛售股 票，导致股市价格大幅下跌。
货币贬值
为了增强出口竞争力，货币价 值下降，这进一步加剧了通货 膨胀和资本外流。
金融危机产生的原因
不良资产
金融机构持有的不良资产（如坏账和呆账）不断增加，导致其资产负 债表出现不平衡。
过度杠杆化
金融机构通过借入短期资金来购买高风险资产，以获取高额利润。当 市场环境恶化时，这些债务无法得到偿还，导致金融机构破产。
1 2
鼓励房地产企业多元化融资
除了银行贷款外，探索股权融资、债券融资等多 种融资方式。
降低企业融资成本
通过政策引导，降低房地产企业的融资成本，减 轻其财务负担。
3
建立房地产企业信用评价体系
通过建立信用评价体系，提高企业的融资能力， 降低融资难度。
提高企业风险控制能力
加强企业内部控制
建立健全内部控制体系，提高企业的风险防范意识和 能力。
政府通过调整土地供应、土地出让方式等土地政策来调节市场。
税收政策调整
政府通过调整房产税、土地增值税等税收政策来调节市场。
国际市场的变化
国际经济形势影响
国际经济形势的变化对国内房地产市场产生影响，如外资流入、汇率波动等。
国际房地产市场的传导
国际房地产市场的变化可能通过投资、贸易等方式传导至国内市场。
房地产投资减少
经济环境恶化使得投资者对房地产市场的预期变 得悲观，减少了对房地产市场的投资。
金融机构收紧贷款条件，使得投资者难以获得融 资，进一步减少了房地产投资。
房价下跌使得投资者对房地产市场的信心降低， 减少了投资意愿。
03
金融危机对房地产 企业的挑战
融资困难
金融机构信贷收紧

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK THE BOHAI SEA在现代经济中，房地产不仅是一种重要的、能够直接用于生产和消费的物质财富，其虚拟资产的特性也在不断增强，从而使房地产成为除金融资产以外的另一种重要的虚拟资产。

由于房产价格的特殊性，个人房地产投资者或出于自住需求或出于投机需求，往往需要通过融资来实现投资。

简单的看，在房地产上升阶段由于金融环境的宽松，给房价上涨提供了足够的资金空间。

由于房价飞涨也产生了大量的投机者，投机者为获利而加速推动了房价上涨，若金融机构继续提供资金，房价将继续上涨，如此循环泡沫就此产生了。

房地产泡沫是导致很多国家经济发展出现重大波折甚至一蹶不振的根源。

2008年以来恰恰是房地产泡沫的破灭导致了严重的世界性经济危机。

美国次贷危机是房地产市场泡沫和金融市场泡沫互动,导致次贷危机升级，主要内因是次贷产品自身的缺陷和操作漏洞，主要外因是货币政策的大幅调整，导致信用评级失实、衍生产品无度、交易监管错位以及风险预警失灵等问题。

我国的房地产泡沫会不会反作用金融环境，形成中国式的次贷危机继而导致我国经济走向低迷，但目前我国房地产环境和金融环境存在的一些问题值得关注。

目前我国房地产市场现状及金融环境对其影响（一）我国的房地产市场情况房地产市场在经历了2008年的拐点之后，不论是房价还是建筑规模都有突飞猛进的发展。

从2009年初到2010年底，一些项目价格将近翻了一番。

2011年国家出台一系列调控政策，各地方政府也相继出台地方相应政策，以调控房价并遏制投机。

调控政策旨在规范房地产市场中间各个环节，增加供给的同时控制需求。

以天津为例，今年3月1日执行津十条以来，尤其限购令的执行有效的控制了投机需求，商品房销售量环比一直下降。

大量推出的保障性住房建设，包括限价房、廉租房、公租房及经济适用房四种，有效的解决了一部分刚性需求。

加强了经营性土地证后监管，保证开发商在取得土地后，两年内土地闲置收回，从签订土地合同就约定了开竣工时间表，严格按照合同约定监管，保障商品房市场供给；加强了商品房销售监管，对房屋价格严格审查申报制度、一房一价，建立房屋信息、销售情况公示制度，监督投诉电话必须公示，最大限度做到公开、公平，杜绝了捂盘行为。

金融危机对房地产市场的影响及对策近年来，全球范围内的金融危机给各个行业带来了极大的冲击，房地产市场也不例外。

本文将探讨金融危机对房地产市场的影响，并提出相应的对策。

一、金融危机对房地产市场的影响1. 信贷紧缩：金融危机导致银行对于贷款审批更加谨慎，信贷供给减少，使得购房者难以获得合适的资金支持，购房需求锐减。

2. 宏观经济问题：金融危机引发了全球经济衰退，大规模的失业和收入减少使得民众购买力下降，进一步抑制了房地产市场的发展。

3. 房价下降：金融危机引发的经济不稳定性导致房价下降，购房者对于未来房价的不确定性增加，进一步抑制了购房需求。

4. 投资者信心下降：金融危机对投资者信心造成了严重的打击，很多投资者转移了资金流入较为稳定的资产类别，如债券等，而对于房地产市场的投资意愿降低，造成房地产市场的投资热情不高。

二、金融危机对房地产市场的对策1. 加强金融监管：针对金融危机造成的信贷紧缩问题，应加强金融监管，完善风险防范机制，减少金融市场的不确定性，为房地产市场提供稳定的资金支持。

2. 推动经济复苏：加大财政支持，通过减税降费等措施，增加购房者的购买力，促进经济复苏，提振房地产市场信心。

3. 优化土地政策：通过改革土地供应政策，增加土地供给，降低楼盘成本，从而拉动购房需求，促进房地产市场的稳定发展。

4. 多元化房地产市场发展：注重培育住房租赁市场，发展租赁行业，吸引投资者充分参与，减少对于购房市场的依赖，降低全局风险。

5. 提高房地产市场透明度：加强相关政策的引导和监管，提升房地产市场的透明度，减少信息不对称，增加购房者和投资者参与的积极性。

结语：金融危机对于房地产市场造成了不可忽视的影响，但同时也提供了改革和发展的机遇。

政府和各界应加大力度，通过积极的政策引导和监管，为房地产市场提供稳定的发展环境，适应金融危机带来的挑战，推动房地产市场的健康发展。

只有如此，我们才能在金融危机中寻求到机遇，实现房地产市场的可持续发展。

金融危机对房地产市场的影响在过去的几十年里，金融危机成为全球经济的一部分。

这些危机主要由经济下滑、金融系统崩溃以及信贷紧缩等因素引起。

这些事件的发生不仅对股票市场和国家的整体经济产生了巨大的影响，还对房地产市场产生了深远的影响。

本文将从几个方面讨论金融危机对房地产市场的影响。

首先，金融危机常常导致经济衰退。

在经济衰退期间，人们的购买力下降，以及对未来的不确定性，导致了房地产市场的寒冬。

随着企业倒闭和人们失去工作，购房需求显著下降。

这导致了房地产市场的供给过剩，房价下跌。

由于价格下跌，许多房地产开发项目被推迟或停工，开发商面临了巨大的困境。

其次，金融危机导致了信贷收紧。

在金融危机期间，银行和金融机构严格审查借款申请，减少了贷款的供应。

对于那些依赖银行贷款购买房屋的人来说，这意味着他们更难获得救赎。

即使他们能够获得贷款，银行的严格审查流程也使得贷款利率上升，借款人需付出更高的成本。

这使得购房成本上升，更多的人选择延迟购房或放弃购房。

房地产市场的需求持续疲软，价格进一步下跌。

第三，金融危机对房地产市场的影响还表现在投资者心态的变化上。

在金融危机期间，投资者对风险更为警惕，对房地产市场的投资兴趣下降。

投资者更喜欢将资金投入到相对安全的资产，例如黄金或政府债券。

房地产市场的投资需求减少，通常会导致价格的进一步下跌。

另外，金融危机常常导致房地产市场的泡沫破裂。

在危机爆发之前，很多地区的房地产市场都处于泡沫状态。

投资者过度乐观，推高了房价，使得市场对未来增长的预期过高。

然而，金融危机爆发后，这些泡沫很快破裂。

投资者纷纷撤离，房价急剧下跌，市场遭受重创。

这种突然的市场调整可能导致更多的问题，例如银行不良贷款激增、产业链的崩溃等。

然而，尽管金融危机对房地产市场的影响通常是负面的，它也为一些机会提供了发展。

在金融恢复的过程中，许多房地产项目被推迟或终止，这使得一些购房者发现了更多的选择和折扣。

此外，金融危机迫使房地产开发商更加审慎地选择项目，减少了市场上不理性的竞争。