英国2011年经济回顾(英文版)

Economic Review - December 2011Author Name(s): Malindi Myers, Office for National StatisticsAbstractThis note provides some wider economic analysis to support the Statistical Bulletin relating to the latest GDP release and other major economic releases during the latest month. By drawing on the wider array of economic releases surrounding the GDP release, for example the labour market, trade, retail sales and inflation releases, this note attempts to provide a more comprehensive picture of how the economy has performed in the latest quarter and, where relevant, the latest month. SummaryEconomic statistics for October and November suggest a continuation of the subdued economic conditions that have prevailed in recent months. Manufacturing output fell in October, and construction activity remained weak. Labour market indicators were also weak, with a further rise in unemployment in the latest three months, accompanied by continuing modest earnings growth. Bright spots were relatively narrowly confined – for instance the strong growth in exports in October, albeit from a low September base, and the continuing buoyancy of on-line retail sales in November. And consumer price inflation eased for the second month running to an annual rate of 4.8 per cent in November.The latest GDP estimates for the third quarter of 2011 also show patchy growth. Even in the services sector, which provided the mainstay of aggregate economic growth, strength wasnot broadly based, being confined to a small number of sub-sectors. In terms of expenditure components, the main drivers of sustainable growth – household consumption, business investment and overseas trade – were all noticeably weak.GDP growth in Q3GDP grew by 0.6 per cent between the second and third quarters of 2011, revised up slightly from the previous estimate of 0.5 per cent. The output and income estimates grew slightly faster than this, with the expenditure estimate growing more slowly at 0.4 per cent.In all three measures of GDP – based on output, expenditure and income estimates - growth is concentrated in a relatively narrow range of components. The chart below illustrates the limited sources of growth in the expenditure and income components. In terms of the output components too, growth in services sector output is confined to a few sub-sectors.Contributions to GDP growth using expenditure and income measuresConstant prices for expenditure components and current prices for income componentsDownload chartXLS format(16 Kb)Note: ‘Households’ is an abbreviated form of households’ final consumption expenditure.‘Government’ is an abbreviation for general government final consumption expenditure. ‘Inventories’includes the alignment adjustment.There have been small upward revisions to the estimates of quarterly GDP growth in 2010 Q1, revised up by 0.2 percentage points to +0.4 per cent, and in 2011Q2, down by 0.1 point to show zero growth in the quarter. In terms of expenditure components, the level of households’ final consumption has been revised up during 2010 and 2011, with government expenditure now estimated to have grown more slowly than previously estimated during 2011. By income component, the biggest revisions have been to the level of compensation of employees, although this was revised down in the latest quarter.Household consumption has fallen in real terms over the past year, and in the latest quarter is only one per cent above its lowest level during the recession in 2009. This is in keeping with the weak financial position of households and low levels of consumer confidence. Real household disposable income is now estimated to have fallen slightly in 2010 and, while modest growth resumed in the latest two quarters, it remains below the low level seen in 2010.With lower incomes and higher spending than previously estimated, the household saving ratio has been revised down slightly during 2010 and 2011. The saving ratio rose from 6.4 per cent to 6.6 per cent in the third quarter of 2011, but most of the adjustment in household saving that occurred during the recession remains in place.Changes in inventories account for the whole of growth in GDP between the second and third quarters of 2011. Such a rebuilding of inventories cannot provide a sustainable source of GDP growth, which typically relies on the key expenditure drivers of household consumption, investment and net exports. Summing them together, these categories of expenditure have on average been broadly flat through 2010 and 2011, and slightly negative through 2011. In other words, GDP growth in recent periods has been heavily reliant on government current expenditure and inventory changes. There has also been a steadily rising statistical discrepancy over this period, indicatinga shortfall between relatively weak growth in the expenditure measure compared with that of the average estimate of GDP.Index of productionThe output of production industries fell by 0.7 per cent between September and October, and was 1.7 per cent lower than in October 2010. This decline in output continues a weakening trend -October was the eighth successive month of falling output growth compared to a year earlier. The production sector as a whole has been a drag on the economy throughout 2011. Output in October was 2.4 per cent below its level in December 2010.Within the sector, manufacturing output also fell by 0.7 per cent between September and October, but was still higher than a year earlier. The 0.3 per cent year-on-year growth in October was 2.4 percentage points lower than the average of the corresponding figures for 2011 as a whole. Manufacturing output growth during the year has been narrowly concentrated in a few sectors, principally food, beverages & tobacco, transport equipment, and other machinery.Month on month a year agoDownload chartXLS format(13.5 Kb)Construction outputOutput in the construction sector fell by 2.7 per cent in October compared with a year earlier. In the third quarter, using seasonally adjusted data, construction output grew by 0.3 per cent compared to the second quarter. Repair and maintenance saw a 1.1 per cent increase, with private commercial new work rising by nearly 3 percent between the two latest quarters.Although the construction sector was hit badly by the recession, shrinking by just over 18 per cent through the recession, it recovered strongly during much of 2010. Output is now 7 per cent lower than it was prior to the recession.Services sector outputThe services sector continues to hold up GDP growth, expanding by 0.5 per cent in the third quarter. However, this growth has been concentrated in just a few sub-sectors, primarily scientific administration & support, finance & insurance activities, education and health. Growth in a number of sectors that are orientated towards the household sector, such as wholesale & retail, real estate and other services, are relatively weak by comparison.2011 Q3, Quarter on quarter growthDownload chartXLS format(13.5 Kb)Retail SalesRetail sales growth eased slightly in November, with volumes growing by 0.7 per cent compared with a year earlier, slightly lower than the average growth in the last three months. Sales volumes fell by 0.4 per cent between October and November.By value, sales fell by 0.1 percent between October and November, but rose by 4.6 per cent compared with a year earlier reflecting the high rate of consumer price inflation. The implicit price deflator rose by 3.6 per cent in the year to November, down sharply from the 4.4 per cent rate of increase in October.Month on month a year agoDownload chartXLS format(13.5 Kb)During 2011, retail sales growth has been held up by strong performances in non-store retailing (internet sales) and predominantly fuel sales growth. These two components together make up just 15 per cent of the total retail sales index (RSI), but contributed 1.3 percentage points to overall retail sales volume growth in the year to November. In other words, sales volumes through stores – predominantly food and predominantly non-food stores – have as a whole held down retail sales growth over the past year.Month on month a year agoDownload chartXLS format(14 Kb)Overseas tradeThe trade deficit narrowed significantly in October, by £2.6 billion, driven by the deficit on trade in goods, albeit from a particularly large deficit in September. The value of exports of goods rose by £2 billion between the two latest months while the value of imports of goods fell by £0.5 billion.Within the rise in goods exports, £1.7 billion was due to semi-finished and finished manufactures. The strength of exports of manufactures and semi-finished manufactures contrasts somewhatwith the recent lacklustre performance of manufacturing output. The decrease in imports of goods was driven by a fall in semi-manufactures and reflects the weakening performance in the domestic manufacturing sector.Growth of manufacturing output compared to growth of exports of manufacturesMonth on month a year agoDownload chartXLS format(14 Kb)Since March, the trade deficit has been made up by an average of around 40 per cent of EU27 trade and around 60 per cent of non-EU trade. However, the improvement in October was made up of a £1.5 billion improvement in the EU27 trade deficit, whilst the non-EU trade deficit improved by £1.2 billion. So whilst both deficits improved, more of the improvement came from the EU27 balance of trade. The last time both deficits improved compared to the previous month was in April.Change in the trade deficit with EU and non-EU trading partnersMonth-on-monthDownload chartXLS format(13.5 Kb)Export price growth rose relatively strongly between February and May to 5.2 per cent (latest three months compared with the previous three months). But since July, the rate of export price growth has dropped below that of imports, with prices falling in August-October compared with the previous three month period. The decline in export and import price growth was driven by EU27 trade rather than non-EU trade.Export and import price growth (goods)3 month on 3 monthDownload chartXLS format(14 Kb)The balance of paymentsThe current account balance plus the capital balance reflects the extent to which the UK is a net lender or net borrower with the rest of the world. In 2010, the UK ran a current account and capital account deficit of £44.9 billion, the highest on record, and in the third quarter of 2011 the current account and capital account deficit was £14.2 billion, also the highest on record. The two main drivers of these unprecedented current account deficits were:- the significant trade deficit, which is primarily driven by the goods trade deficit, and- the fall in the income surplus which resulted from UK owned banks abroad and foreign subsidiaries of UK private non-financial corporations making lower profits, or losses, whilst foreign owned banks operating in the UK made larger profits.The trade deficit in the third quarter of 2011 acted to pull down GDP growth, as discussed in the trade section above. Despite some improvement in export growth, particularly during 2010 but also in some months of 2011, import growth has tended to remain fairly solid despite weak domestic demand, so perpetuating the goods trade deficit. Import growth has remained relatively solid due toimports of fuels, materials and semi-manufactures which feed the production industries, but export growth of manufactures has been falling since the start of 2011, with the exception of October 2011. The labour marketThe latest Labour Force Survey data showed a continuation of the weakness displayed in the summer months with a further weakening in employment and an increase in unemployment in the period August to October compared with May to July. In contrast, workforce jobs (WFJ) data –based on a survey of employers rather than the household based estimates of the Labour Force Survey (LFS) - showed an increase in the number of jobs of 150,000 between June and September.Over a longer timeframe, workforce jobs have been broadly stable at just above 31 million since late 2009. The LFS estimate of employment has first risen and then fallen back during the same period, and was some 200,000 higher at the end of this two-year period than at the start.The decline in LFS-based employment in recent months has been mitigated by an on-going trendof rising self-employment. The numbers of self employed rose by 166,000 between the two latest three month periods, to reach 4.14 million, the highest since comparable records began in 1992. Both full time and part time self employment have been rising. The chart below shows the change in the level of employment and self-employment, and illustrates that the sharp fall in employment in the three month period of August to October was partly offset by the rise in self-employment. The risein self-employment may reflect the weakness of the labour market, with people setting up their own businesses in the absence of being able to find work as an employee.Changes in the level of employed and self-employedQuarter on quarterDownload chartXLS format(13.5 Kb)The level of public sector employment fell by 67,000 between June and September, continuingits downward trend. Private sector employment increased by 5,000 over the quarter and isnot generating sufficient new jobs to absorb the decline in public sector employment. A similar conclusion can be drawn on an annual basis, with public sector employment falling by 276,000 whilst private sector employment increased by 262,000.Change in the level of public and private sector employmentQuarter on quarterDownload chartXLS format(13.5 Kb)The increases in the claimant count in October and November have been the lowest this year. Compared to a year ago, the claimant count has risen by 139,000. The increase in the LFS estimate of unemployment in the year to August-October has also been 139,000.Unemployment among 18-24 year olds has risen further in the period August to October compared to the two previous three month periods (February to April and May to July). And a higher proportion of the youth unemployed are now in the longer period brackets of unemployment.Unemployment levels of 18-24 year olds by durationDownload chartXLS format(13.5 Kb)Total weekly hours increased in the August – October period compared with the May to July period. Total weekly hours are broadly unchanged from the level in early 2009, after falling for both men and women throughout 2008. The latest figures are therefore substantially below their 2008 Q1 peak. The fall in total weekly hours since 2008 Q1 is driven by men who in total are now working over 25 million hours less per week, perhaps reflecting the sharp falls in output during the recession in male-dominated industries such as manufacturing, construction and transport and storage. Total weekly hours for women have also dropped but by around 5 million hours.With job security a greater concern for many people than wage bargaining, earnings growth remains subdued in the whole economy and real earnings growth remains negative. In the three months to October, average regular pay was 1.8 per cent up on a year earlier, both in the private sector and in the public sector excluding financial services. This is far lower than November’s 4.8 per cent rate of consumer price inflation.Total pay growth is higher in the private sector than in the public sector (excluding financial services) due to the growth in private sector bonus payments. In the three months to October, total pay growthin finance and business services has eased to 3.3 per cent, down from the 5-6 per cent growth seen in the summer months.InflationThe annual rate of consumer price inflation fell to 4.8 per cent in November, down from 5.0 percent in October. This is the second successive monthly fall following the peak in September at 5.2 per cent. The main downward pressures were from food, petrol, furniture and clothing. The retail prices index has also fallen from 5.6 per cent in September to 5.2 per cent in November for similar reasons.As global commodity prices have begun to flatten off or even decline, so some of the external upward pressure on inflation has eased and price growth has started to come down. This is also reflected in the moderation of producer input price inflation, which has come down from 18 per cent in September to 13.4 per cent in November. Economic forecasters expect that the rate of inflation will continue to fall in 2012, in part because the increase in the rate of VAT from 17.5 to 20 per cent in January 2011 will drop out of the annual inflation figures from January 2012.Public sector financesThe public sector’s current budget deficit (excluding the temporary effects of financial interventions) has continued to improve in November in comparison with the same month of 2010. In the first eight months of the 2011/12 financial year, the deficit was £5.9 billion lower than in the corresponding period of 2010/11. The decrease is driven by a 4.8 per cent increase in tax revenues, significantly helped by the new 20 per cent VAT rate for 2011, against a lower increase in current expenditure. The year-on-year fall in net borrowing was larger, with a fall of £10.4 billion comparing the April-November periods in each year, reflecting cuts in public sector net investment.。