中国统计年鉴2020英文版全国地区社会经济发展指标：Increased Production Cap

外部融资依赖、金融发展与出口贸易增长一、引言作为驱动经济增长的重要因素，国际贸易与金融发展的关系一直受到学界的关注。

国外学者的研究认为，金融发展对贸易的影响在于完善的金融体系可以降低外部融资成本、扩大融资规模。

Kletzer & Bardhan （1987）指出，一国的金融发展水平可以被视为和资源禀赋、技术水平一样的比较优势决定因素，外部融资依赖度高的产业在金融体系完善的国家更具有贸易比较优势。

Raja & Zingales （1998）的研究结果从行业层面证明金融体系能够通过便利资产交易、降低融资成本提高资源配置效率，对外部资金依存度较高的产业将发展更快、出口份额更高、贸易获利更大。

Beck （2000，2002，2003）从金融市场动员储蓄的功能角度分析了金融部门对贸易模式的影响，并在一般均衡模型中引入规模经济，采用多国多行业数据进行实证检验，得出规模收益越高的制成品对外部融资的依赖性越强、规模收益与外部融资需求具有正相关关系的结论。

Svalery & Vlachos （2005）和Ma nova （2008）通过实证研究证明金融发展水平较高的国家在外部融资依赖度较高部门的出口份额较大。

Bena & Ondko （2012）利用1996—2005年欧盟国家的相关数据检验了金融市场的资源配置效率，认为金融发达国家的企业需要借助外部融资实现高速增长，为企业成长提供外部融资是金融体系的重要功能。

国内学者对于金融发展与贸易关系的研究主要集中在实证分析。

朱彤等（2007）使用中国23 个行业的相关数据对金融发展影响比较优势的传导机制进行了经验分析，研究结果表明，金融发展能够通过外部融资支持并提高外部融资依赖较强行业的比较优势。

谈儒勇（2007）选取31个省区20个行业的1 860个样本，通过在模型中引入金融发展与外部融资程度的乘积项发现，金融发展对不同省区不同行业增加值增长的影响会随行业外部融资依赖度的不同而不同；在金融相对发达的地区，适合引导外部融资依赖度高的行业发展，而对外部融资依赖度低的行业则宜于到金融相对不发达的地方发展。

区域物琉能力与区域经济炭展的其型租芙分析——基于全国面板数据李全喜，金凤花，孙磐石(吉林大学管理学院，长春130025)摘要：从物流基础设施、物流经济产出、物流产业规模等方面的指标体系人手，构建包含区域经济产出、社会物资需求、基础设施投资等方面的区域经济指标体系。

基于2003—2008年中国31个省市的面板数据，利用典型相关分析方法对区域物流能力与区域经济发展进行实证分析。

结果表明区域物流能力与区域经济发展高度相关，并结合其他统计分析结果数据提出了促进区域物流能力发展的建议。

关键词：区域物流；区域物流能力；区域经济发展；典型相关分析；面板数据中图分类号：F259．22文献标识码：A文章编号：100l一8409(2010)12—0075—05A nal ysi s of C anoni cal C or r el at i on bet w een R egi onal L ogi s t i csC apabi l i t y and R egi onal Econom i cD e vel opm ent——B ased o n N at i o nal Panel D a t aL I Q uan-xi，JI N F e ng—h ua，S U N Pan-shi(School ofM anagem ent，埘i n U n i ver si t y，Chang chun130025)A b st r a ct：T hi s pa per cons tr uct s t he i ndex sys t em of r egi o nal l o gis t ie s capab i l i t y f r o m l ogis ti cs i nfr as tr uctur e，l og i s t ics out puta nd l o gis t ic s i n dus tr i al scal e，w h i ch i ncl udes t he i nde x of r egi o nal e cono m y f r om e eono m y out put，s oci al m at er i al dem and，i nfr as t ruct u r e i nves t m ent，et e．I t a nM yz es t he r el at i ons be t w een r egional l ogis ti cs capab i l i t y a nd r egional ec ono m i c deve l op-m ent by ca nom c a l corr el at i on analys i s ba sed on t he pa nel dat a of31pr o vi nces i n C hi na．T he r esul t s s how t he hi gh cor r el a-t i o n be t w een r egional l o gis t ic s cap abi l it y a nd r egi o nal ec on om i c dev el opm ent．Fi nal l y i t pr opo ses s ugges t i o ns f or r egional10-gis ti cs capabil i t y de vel opm ent acc or di ng t o t he ana l ys i s．K e y w or ds：r egi on al l og i s t i es；regi on al l ogis ti cs capabi l i t y；r egi onal ec ono m i c dev el op m ent；can oni c al cor rel at i on a na lys is；panel dat a一、引言区域物流作为区域经济的子系统，其发展规模、层次依赖于区域经济发展的同时，也为促进区域经济的迅速发展、产业结构的优化等提供了必要的支持。

第25卷第1期2024年2月南华大学学报(社会科学版)Journal of University of South China (Social Science Edition )Vol.25No.1Feb.2024[收稿日期]㊀2023-10-12[基金项目]㊀河南省哲学社会科学规划项目 郑州都市圈经济融合发展研究 资助(编号:2021BJJ095)[作者简介]㊀庞玉萍(1969 ),女,河南洛阳人,郑州大学商学院副教授,博士㊂1郑州大学商学院硕士研究生㊂数字经济对城乡居民收入差距影响研究兼论城镇化的门槛效应㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀庞玉萍,杨子钰1(郑州大学商学院,河南郑州450001)[摘㊀要]㊀数字经济为缩小居民收入差距带来了新机遇,而 数字鸿沟 又可能引发新的贫富差距㊂研究数字经济对城乡居民收入差距的影响,对于认识和缩小差距,实现共同富裕具有重要意义㊂文章基于2011 2020年31个省域面板数据,通过构建静态㊁动态面板模型及门槛模型,分析数字经济对城乡居民收入差距的影响㊂研究发现:省域层面上,数字经济显著缩小城乡居民收入差距,且该影响具有单一门槛效应㊂在城镇化水平较低时,数字经济对城乡收入差距的影响不显著;当城镇化水平越过门槛值,数字经济水平显著影响城乡收入差距的缩小㊂异质性分析发现,我国南北地区呈现出不同的效应,北方省份城乡收入差距受数字经济水平影响较小,而南方较大㊂[关键词]㊀数字经济;㊀城乡居民收入差距;㊀门槛效应[中图分类号]㊀F124.7;F49㊀[文献标识码]㊀A [文章编号]㊀1673-0755(2024)01-0063-08DOI :10.13967/ki.nhxb.2024.0011㊀㊀当前,数字化浪潮正凭借强大的渗透能力快速而广泛地与社会经济各个领域相融合㊂2022年 十四五 规划纲要提出要 建设智慧城市和数字农村 ,2023年中央一号文件指出 要深入实施数字乡村发展行动 ,让数字技术加速向农村延伸和渗透,引导资本㊁技术㊁人才等要素流向农村,为畅通城乡经济循环㊁破解城乡发展失衡问题提供契机㊂数字经济发展助力农业增效㊁农民增收,有望弥合城乡收入差距,实现共同富裕㊂然而,由于农村地区的数字信息技术相对比较落后㊁人口老龄化严重以及对数字技术的认识度和接受度较低,数字经济对缩小城乡收入差距可能起相反作用㊂那么,数字经济究竟会对城乡收入差距产生怎样的影响?对于不同地区的影响是否存在异质性?回答这些问题不仅能为缩小城乡收入差距提供新思路,还对促进城乡融合㊁实现共同富裕具有重要现实意义㊂一㊀文献综述(一)数字经济对城乡居民收入差距的影响 数字经济 这一概念源自20世纪90年代㊂数字经济之父Don Tapscott 指出,在数字经济中,信息流的呈现不依赖于实体,而是以数字化的方式通过网络流动和传输[1]㊂现有文献在关于数字经济的定义上各有侧重,但达成的基本共识是:数字经济是以数据为关键生产要素[2],以数字基础设施为发展载体[3],以数字产业化和产业数字化为数字价值呈现形式的经济活动[4]㊂这一定义对后文构建数字经济指标体系具有极大借鉴意义㊂当前,已有学者关注到数字经济对城乡居民收入差距的影响并进行研究,主要形成三类观点:第一类观点认为,数字经济能够缩小城乡收入差距㊂由于数字具有低成本重复查询和调用的特点,可降低农村居民的信息搜寻成本㊁工作搜寻成本以及商品运输成本[5]㊂一方面,有助于农户做出最优生产决策和市场决策,从而降低生产成本㊁提高农业收入[6]㊂另一方面,能够促使农村剩余劳动力由农业部门转向非农部门,增加农户的非农就业收入[7]㊂第二类观点认为,数字经济会加剧城乡收入差距㊂城乡经济发展的巨大反差以及城市强大的虹吸效应逐渐引致了 城乡数字鸿沟 ,进一步加深多维贫困的程度[8]㊂第三类观点认为,数字经济对城乡收入差距的影响呈现非线性关系㊂如程名望等采用2003 2016年31个省份的数据考察互联网普及与中国城乡收入差距之间的关系,发现二者呈现 倒U型 发展趋势,并指出现阶段我国处于曲线拐点右侧,即利用数字技术缩小城乡收入差距的机遇期[9]㊂王军等基于2013 2019年省级面板数据研究发现,数字经济发展与城乡收入差距呈 U 型 关系,全国大部分地区处于数字经济发展有利于缩小城乡收入差距的阶段[10]㊂(二)数字经济影响城乡居民收入差距的作用机制已有文献主要从资源优化配置㊁产业结构升级㊁技术创新水平提升等多个角度解析数字经济与城乡收入差距之间的影响机理和理论逻辑㊂第一,数字经济可以通过提升各类生产要素的配置效率,加深城乡间土地㊁人口㊁资金㊁技术㊁信息等要素市场的联动[11],促进非农生产活动的扩散,从而影响城乡收入差距㊂第二,数字经济凭借高技术㊁高渗透㊁低成本的优势,动摇传统分工基础,推动城乡产业链深度融合和产业升级[12],进而影响城乡收入差距㊂第三,数字经济发展产生了技术创新效应,数字化创新工具的全面铺开可以带动农业农村实现高质量发展,对城乡收入差距产生影响㊂如韩先锋等认为,互联网发展可以驱动区域创新效率,中西部区域具有 后发优势 从而获益更多,有助于缩小发达地区和落后地区的创新差距[13]㊂此外,也有学者关注到城镇化水平可能影响数字经济的共同富裕效应㊂如柳江等研究发现,数字经济发展与城乡收入差距之间存在城镇化的门槛效应,认为在城镇化水平程度较低阶段,其缩小城乡收入差距的作用更大[14]㊂总体上,现有文献为本文提供了有益参考,但依然存在一些不足:第一,关于数字经济对城乡收入差距影响的研究仍较少;第二,鲜有文献关注到城镇化水平的门槛作用,而城镇化是关系我国城乡融合的重要内容,忽略其作用可能会导致对数字经济与城乡收入差距之间关系的认识偏误;第三,现有文献大多利用静态面板模型进行分析,不能反映数字经济对城乡收入差距影响的滞后现象㊂基于此,本文以2011 2020年31个省份的面板数据为样本,建立静态㊁动态面板模型以及门槛模型,分析数字经济对城乡居民收入差距的影响及其异质性,并进一步探讨城镇化的门槛效应㊂二㊀理论分析与研究假设(一)数字经济发展对城乡居民收入差距的影响机制数字经济通过节约农业生产成本㊁促进产业融合㊁影响农民就业能力等渠道而影响城乡收入差距,见图1㊂图1　数字经济发展对城乡居民收入差距的影响机制㊀㊀第一,数字经济节约农业生产成本和信息获取成本㊂具体而言,农户可依托大数据测防系统实现对气象灾害的精准防控和病虫害精准防治,科学规避农业经营风险,避免农产品大量减产;从互联网获取新品种㊁新技术㊁新模式等农业科技信息,提高农业生产经营能力和农业生产效率[15],实现农业增值,缩小城乡收入差距㊂第二,数字经济促进一二三产业相互融合㊂数字经济发展过程中,产业创造价值的方式不再是独立的,只有与其他产业实现有效融合,才能找到新的成长空间㊂当前的社会需求也不单是产品的数量增加,更多的是产品的质量提升㊂数字经济时代,城乡间要素流通以及跨产业链上下游之间的交流愈加频繁,驱使农村第一产业与城市二三产业深度融合,同步提升生产和供给能力使农业增产,即提升农村特色资源优势的同时满足城市高质量消费需求[12],最终缩小城乡收入差距㊂第三,数字经济提升农民的就业能力和创业活力㊂一方面,随着互联网普及的深化,农民可以通过社交平台或参与线上培训掌握更多数字信息知识和46㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀南华大学学报(社会科学版)㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀2024年技术,提高就业能力㊂另一方面,金融机构贷款效率在云计算㊁区块链等技术手段下得到极大提升,能够为农户创业提供更加灵活快捷的小额贷款服务和充足稳定的资金来源,缓解农民融资约束[16],激发创业活力,提高农村居民收入,逐步缩小城乡收入差距㊂基于此,提出如下假设:假设1:数字经济有助于缩小城乡收入差距㊂(二)城镇化水平在数字经济对城乡收入差距的影响中存在门槛效应数字经济作为一种新经济㊁新业态,具有一定的城镇偏向[17]㊂因此,当城镇化水平处于较低水平时,城乡间数字鸿沟和人力资本差距较为明显,数字经济红利会优先被城镇高收入居民享有[18],使其对该地城乡收入差距的收敛作用较小㊂但随着城镇化水平的逐步提高,数字经济红利更加 普惠 ,无论城镇还是农村的人力资本㊁产业结构㊁市场潜能都将被深刻优化,从而弥合城乡间的数字鸿沟,缩小城乡收入差距㊂据此,提出以下假设:假设2:数字经济缩小城乡收入差距的效应会受城镇化水平的影响,随着城镇化水平的提升,数字经济对城乡收入差距的收敛效应增强㊂三㊀模型构建、变量说明与数据来源(一)模型构建1.基准回归模型本文构建基准回归模型,为了考察数字经济对城乡收入差距的影响,建立如下计量模型:Theil it=α0+βDe it+δX control+μi+λt+εit(1)其中,i表示省份,t表示年份;Theil it为衡量i省份在t年份的城乡收入差距的泰尔指数;De it表示i省份在t年份的数字经济发展水平;X control为一系列控制变量;μi表示个体效应,λt表示时间效应,εit为随机扰动项㊂式(1)为静态面板模型,但考虑到城乡收入差距可能存在路径依赖,即过去的城乡收入差距会影响当期城乡收入差距,因此将城乡收入差距指数的一阶滞后项作为解释变量引入模型,构建如下动态面板模型:Theil it=α0+α1Theil i,t-1+βDe it+δX control+μi+λt+εit(2)其中,Theil i,t-1表示城乡收入差距指数的一阶滞后项㊂2.面板门槛模型为判断城镇化水平在数字经济与城乡收入差距关系中的门槛作用,本文构建如下门槛回归模型: Theil it=α0+β1De it I(ln Urban itɤγ)+β2De it I(ln Urban it>γ)+δX control+μi+λt+εit(3)其中,ln Urban it为门槛变量城镇化水平;γ为待估门槛值㊂I(㊃)为示性函数,若括号内条件成立,则I=1,反之则I=0㊂式(3)为存在单个门槛值的情况,若存在多个门槛值,则模型设定为: Theil it=α0+β1De it I(ln Urban itɤγ1)+β2De it I(γ1<ln Urban itɤγ2)+β3De it I(ln Urban it>γ2)+δX control+μi+λt+εit(4)(二)变量选取1.被解释变量:城乡居民收入差距(Theil)目前衡量城乡居民收入差距的常用指标主要有三种,分别为城镇与农村人均可支配收入之比㊁基尼系数和泰尔指数㊂综合考虑,虽然城乡人均可支配收入比的计算方法简单,却无法充分体现城乡人口份额和收入份额的变化所带来的影响㊂基尼系数为各个收入组之间差距的加总平均,无法反映各个收入组的动态变化过程㊂相比之下,泰尔指数将城乡人口结构变化因素考虑在内,也对收入的两级变动更为敏感㊂因此,本文采用泰尔指数测算城乡收入差距,具体公式如下:Theil it=ð2r=1I r,it I it()ln I r,it IitP r,itP it()(5)其中,r=1和r=2分别表示城镇和农村地区, I r,it和P r,it分别表示t时期i省份城镇或农村居民的可支配收入和人口数量;I it和P it分别表示t时期i 省份的总收入和总人口数量㊂该数值越大,表示城乡收入差距越大㊂2.解释变量:数字经济发展水平(De)本文基于数字经济内涵,借鉴王军等[21]㊁陈贵富等[22]的方法,并结合数据可得性,从数字基础设施㊁数字产业化㊁产业数字化三个方面构建了包含5项具体指标的数字经济发展水平指标体系,对指标进行标准化处理,并使用熵值法确定各指标的权重,然后进行加权求和得到综合指数值㊂具体指标及其权重见表1㊂56第1期庞玉萍,杨子钰:数字经济对城乡居民收入差距影响研究表1㊀数字经济发展水平指标体系一级指标二级指标衡量标准(单位)指标属性权重数字基础设施宽带互联网基础每百人国际互联网用户数(户)+0.1277移动互联网基础每百人移动电话年末用户数(户)+0.1197数字产业化信息产业基础信息传输㊁软件和信息技术服务业从业人员占比(%)+0.4482电信产业产出人均电信业务总量(万元)+0.1165产业数字化数字金融数字普惠金融指数+0.1879㊀㊀3.控制变量本文选取如下控制变量:(1)产业结构水平(IS),用第二㊁三产业增加值占GDP的比重来表示;(2)财政支农水平(Agr),采用农林水事务支出占GDP的比重来表示;(3)金融发展水平(Finance),以金融产业增加值占GDP的比重来表示;(4)受教育程度(lnEdu),以每十万人口高等教育平均在校生人数的对数来表示;(5)市场化水平(Market),借鉴樊纲等(2001)[23]的研究,用市场化指数来衡量;(6)城镇化水平(lnUrban),采用城镇常住人口占总人口的比例的对数值来表示㊂(三)数据来源与描述性统计本文的数据样本由2011 2020年31个省的面板数据组成㊂其中,数字普惠金融指数来源于北大数字金融研究中心所公布的数字普惠金融指数①,其他数据均来源于EPS数据库和各省份的统计年鉴㊂表2为各变量描述性统计结果㊂表2㊀主要变量描述性统计结果变量符号观测值均值标准差最小值最大值城乡居民收入差距Theil3100.09070.03980.01800.2020数字经济发展水平De3100.23440.18100.03110.9999产业结构水平IS3100.90200.05230.74200.9970财政支农水平Agr3100.03800.03740.00790.2621金融发展水平Finance3100.07140.03040.02650.1963受教育程度ln Edu3107.82300.2918 6.98668.6328市场化水平Market3107.7215 2.1828-0.160012.1067城镇化水平ln Urban310 4.03500.2339 3.1224 4.4954四㊀实证分析(一)基准回归分析首先,使用静态面板模型估计数字经济对城乡居民收入差距的影响,固定效应模型的回归结果见表3的列(1)㊂结果显示,数字经济的回归系数在5%的水平上显著为负,即数字经济能够显著缩小城乡收入差距㊂其次,运用动态面板模型进行估计,使用差分GMM模型(DIFF-GMM)和系统GMM模型(SYS-GMM)来考察数字经济与城乡收入差距的关系,估计结果见表3的列(2)和列(3)㊂由回归结果可以看到,无论是使用差分GMM还是系统GMM,数字经济的回归系数均在1%的水平上显著为负,数字经济的发展对城乡收入差距具有显著的收敛效应㊂此外,两个模型的AR(2)值都大于0.05,表明只存在一阶序列相关不存在二阶序列相关,即通过了自相关检验;Sargan检验的P值接近1,接受所有工具变量都有效的原假设,即表明工具变量不存在过度识别问题㊂因此,差分GMM和系统GMM的估计结果可靠且一致㊂66㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀南华大学学报(社会科学版)㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀2024年表3　数字经济发展与城乡居民收入差距的关系解释变量被解释变量:城乡收入差距(1)FE(2)DIFF-GMM(3)SYS-GMML.Theil0.8420①(0.0498)0.8360①(0.0273) De-0.0143②(0.0056)-0.0275①(0.0023)-0.0144①(0.0021) IS0.0543①(0.0084)-0.0015①(0.0003)-0.0001(0.0002) Agr-0.3689①(0.0561)0.0743①(0.0204)0.0449①(0.0084) Finance0.2170①(0.0316)-0.0149(0.0116)-0.0552①(0.0150) ln Edu-0.0269①(0.0019)-0.0278③(0.0169)0.0616①(0.0119) Market-0.0073①(0.0011)-0.0189①(0.0015)-0.0158①(0.0016) ln Urban-0.1247①(0.0100)0.0076(0.0097)-0.0112②(0.0044) Constant0.8134①(0.0253)0.0817②(0.0393)0.1410①(0.0284) AR(2)0.58890.1741 Sargan检验0.9968 1.0000观测值310248279㊀㊀注:括号内为标准误㊂①表示在1%的水平上显著㊂②表示在5%的水平上显著㊂③表示在10%的水平上显著㊂㊀㊀静态面板模型和动态面板模型估计结果都显示数字经济对城乡收入差距的影响系数显著为负,说明当前的数字经济发展显著缩小城乡收入差距㊂而对于其他控制变量,估计结果存在一定的差异㊂因为静态面板模型没有考虑到可能存在的遗漏变量和内生性问题,且动态面板模型考虑了时间的影响,所以本文主要以动态面板模型的估计结果为准㊂进一步考虑,系统GMM比差分GMM的估计偏差更小㊁效率更高,本文主要依据系统GMM的两步估计结果进行分析㊂表3中系统GMM的估计结果表明,金融发展水平(Finance)有助于缩小城乡收入差距,由于资金的利用效率提高,较多闲置的存款资金以各类贷款的形式投入到生产之中,加速经济和金融的发展,促进城乡整体发展㊂市场化水平(Market)有利于城乡差距的收敛,市场化进程的推进使城乡间资源要素流动加速㊁利用效率提升,这能为农民增收创造良好条件㊂产业结构水平(IS)的优化也有助于缩小城乡差距,但收敛效果尚不显著㊂财政支农水平(Agr)会扩大城乡差距,可能的原因在于,虽然财政支农补贴一定程度上增加了农民收入,但同时也强化了小农经营模式,阻碍农业规模化生产和集约化经营,抑制了农业生产效率㊂另外,财政支农政策还存在 福利依赖效应 ,可能陷入财政支农补贴得越多㊁农民对支农政策的依赖效应就越强㊁城乡差距越大的恶性循环㊂对于受教育程度(lnEdu)会扩大城乡差距的原因可能是,当人们的受教育程度提高后,不再满足于在本地区能够获取到的各种资源,导致大量人才流向大城市,留在农村的大多是劳动能力较弱且对新知识㊁新技术接受能力与意愿都比较低的老年人,不利于农村人力资本的提升,导致城乡差距扩大㊂(二)稳健性检验为进一步验证结果的有效性,本文采用替换解释变量和剔除部分样本两个方面进行稳健性检验㊂首先,替换解释变量㊂将解释变量替换为北京大学数字普惠金融指数(DIF),该指数衡量了数字金融的发展程度,部分学者将其作为评估数字经济的指标之一,在一定程度上反映了数字经济发展水平㊂如表4的列(1)回归结果显示,数字经济对城乡收入差距的收敛效应依然显著,与基准回归结果一致,说明实证结果稳健㊂其次,剔除部分样本数据㊂将北京㊁天津㊁上海和重庆这四个直辖市样本数据剔除,继续使用双向固定效应模型进行回归分析㊂如表4的列(2)回归结果显示,数字经济系数仍显著为负,实证结果稳健㊂76第1期庞玉萍,杨子钰:数字经济对城乡居民收入差距影响研究表4㊀稳健性检验变量(1)替换解释变量Theil (2)剔除部分样本数据TheilDIF-0.0003①(0.0003)De-0.0459①(0.0132) Constant0.8706①(0.8706)0.6500①(0.0369)观测值310270R-squared0.79580.7191控制变量是是地区固定效应是是时间固定效应是是㊀㊀注:括号内为标准误㊂①表示在1%的水平上显著㊂(三)异质性分析经济进入新常态以来,我国南北发展差距逐渐扩大, 南快北慢 格局成为制约我国区域协调发展的重要障碍[24]㊂长期以来,南方数字技术和实体经济融合程度更高,而北方数字化转型较慢㊂同时,南方地区比北方地区的城镇化水平㊁市场化程度更高,可能加剧南北之间数字化转型的差异,影响数字经济对城乡居民收入差距的收敛效果㊂因此,为观察地理区域上的异质特征,本文以秦岭 淮河一线为划分标准②,将样本分为北方与南方地区进行分地区检验,检验结果见表5㊂由表5可知,数字经济能够显著缩小南方地区省份的城乡收入差距,而对北方地区省份则不显著,呈现出明显的地区异质性㊂从 南北差异 角度分析原因,除上述市场化㊁城镇化水平等影响因素外,南方地区拥有更合理的经济结构㊁更强的创新能力,因此数字经济对缩小南方省份城乡收入差距的作用更为明显;北方地区高度依赖重工业,导致数字化转型较慢,因此现阶段数字经济对北方省份城乡收入差距的影响尚不明显㊂表5㊀异质性分析变量(1)北方地区Theil(2)南方地区TheilDe-0.0085(0.0084)-0.0673①(0.0157)IS0.0920②(0.0288)0.1698①(0.0333)Agr-0.2545①(0.0487)0.6778②(0.2828) Finance0.0252(0.0827)0.2298①(0.0564) ln Edu-0.0166①(0.0038)-0.0601①(0.0085) Market-0.0088①(0.0019)-0.0030(0.0026) ln Urban-0.0903①(0.0189)-0.0809①(0.0146) Constant0.5761①(0.1087)0.7422①(0.0589)观测值160150R-squared0.71820.9161地区固定效应是是时间固定效应是是㊀㊀注:括号内为标准误㊂①表示在1%的水平上显著㊂②表示在5%的水平上显著㊂(四)门槛效应分析1.门槛效应检验表6为城乡收入差距以城镇化水平为门槛变量的检验结果㊂结果表明,城镇化水平在单一门槛下估计值通过了显著性检验,而其他门槛均未通过显著性检验㊂因此,本文使用单一门槛模型来研究数字经济对城乡收入差距的影响㊂表6㊀门槛效应自抽样检验门槛变量门槛个数F值P值Bootstrap次数临界值10%5%1%城镇化水平单一门槛49.740.0070100028.584634.205246.3731双重门槛13.150.5720100027.437833.440442.9512三重门槛12.280.6270100028.221734.395244.9828㊀㊀表7为单一门槛估计值,城镇化水平的单一门槛值为4.1125,对应的城镇化率约为61.10%㊂2.门槛效应回归结果表8为城镇化水平的门槛效应回归结果,在不同的城镇化水平下产生的影响有所不同㊂当城镇化水平低于门槛值4.1125时(即城镇化率低于61.1%时),数字经济发展对城乡收入差距的影响系数为负但不显著,说明此时数字经济对城乡收入差距的收敛效应较弱㊂而当城镇化水平大于门槛值4.1125时(即城镇化率高于61.1%时),数字经济86㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀南华大学学报(社会科学版)㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀㊀2024年发展对城乡收入差距的影响系数在1%水平下显著为负,此时数字经济能显著缩小城乡收入差距㊂原因可能在于,随着城镇化水平的提高,城市溢出效应增强,城乡之间的分化逐渐缩小,农村地区所享受的数字红利逐步增加,从而城乡收入差距缩小㊂该结论验证了本文最初提出的假设,即随着城镇化水平的提升,数字经济对城乡收入差距的收敛效应增强㊂同时也进一步印证了前文关于异质性分析的讨论结果,即数字经济对城乡收入差距的作用效果会受到城镇化水平的影响,该效果在城镇化水平较高的南方地区省份表现得更加显著,而北方地区省份仍受城镇化水平的制约而无显著效果㊂表7㊀门槛估计值和置信区间门槛变量门槛值估计值95%置信区间城镇化水平单一门槛检验γ 4.1125[4.1068,4.1198]表8㊀门槛效应回归结果变量TheilDe(ln Urbanɤ4.1125)-0.0279(0.0211) De(ln Urban>4.1125)-0.0647①(0.0204)IS-0.0915(0.0615)Agr-0.1710②(0.0816)Finance-0.2270②(0.0829)ln Edu-0.0685①(0.0081)Market-0.0018(0.0014)Constant0.7580①(0.0745)观测值310R-squared0.8390㊀㊀注:括号内为标准误㊂①表示在1%的水平上显著㊂②表示在5%的水平上显著㊂五㊀结论与建议本文在探讨数字经济对城乡居民收入差距的影响机制的基础上,以2011 2020年31个省级面板数据为样本,利用静态和动态面板模型进行实证分析,并进一步运用门槛模型探究城镇化水平的门槛效应㊂研究发现:第一,2011 2020年在省域层面上数字经济的发展能够显著缩小城乡居民收入差距,该结论具有稳健性㊂第二,数字经济对城乡居民收入差距的影响存在地区差异性㊂对于南方地区省份,数字经济能够显著缩小其城乡收入差距,而对于北方地区省份,数字经济对城乡收入差距的影响并不显著㊂第三,数字经济对城乡居民收入差距的影响具有单一门槛效应㊂在城镇化水平较低时,数字经济对城乡收入差距的影响不显著;当城镇化水平越过门槛值达到较高水平后,数字经济对缩小城乡收入差距的效果显著增强㊂该检验结果与异质性分析中的结论保持一致㊂上述结论的政策启示是:第一,进一步做大做强做优数字经济,缓解城乡居民收入不平衡现象㊂加强农村数字基础设施建设,畅通城乡要素流通渠道,吸引数字技术人才扎根农村干事创业,激活农村经济活力㊂第二,统筹考虑区域产业基础㊁资源禀赋,制定差异化发展策略㊂北方地区应加快 数字赋能 的步伐,鼓励企业数字化转型,提高数字技术在产业中的应用,充分释放数字经济红利,更好地缩小城乡收入差距㊂南方地区需夯实数字经济的共同富裕效应,并充分发挥辐射带动作用,进一步提升乡村等落后地区的数字经济水平㊂第三,鼓励和引导城镇化有序发展,更好地发挥数字经济对城乡收入差距的收敛作用㊂一方面积极推进就地城镇化,缓解传统城镇化模式下大规模空间迁移带来的城乡失衡问题;另一方面开展新型城镇化建设,推动城乡公共服务均等化,激发城乡发展活力,推动城乡间㊁区域间的整体发展,最终实现共同富裕㊂注释:①数据来源于数字经济开放研究平台(https://www. /research/numberdata#hotChart)㊂②根据秦岭淮河一线分界线,南方地区包括上海㊁江苏㊁浙江㊁安徽㊁福建㊁江西㊁湖北㊁湖南㊁广东㊁广西㊁海南㊁重庆㊁四川㊁贵州㊁云南㊁西藏等16个省(区㊁市),台湾省因数据缺失不包括在样本中,北方地区包括北京㊁天津㊁河北㊁山西㊁内蒙古㊁辽宁㊁吉林㊁黑龙江㊁山东㊁河南㊁陕西㊁甘肃㊁青海㊁宁夏㊁新疆等15个省(区㊁市)㊂[参考文献][1]㊀TAPSCOTT D.The Digital Economy:Promise and Perilin the Age of Networker Intelligence[M].New York:McGraw-Hill,1996.[2]㊀李海舰,赵丽.数据成为生产要素:特征㊁机制与价值形态演进[J].上海经济研究,2021(8):48-59. [3]㊀白俊红,陈新.数字经济㊁空间溢出效应与区域创新效率[J].研究与发展管理,2022,34(6):67-78.[4]㊀刘钒,余明月.长江经济带数字产业化与产业数字化96第1期庞玉萍,杨子钰:数字经济对城乡居民收入差距影响研究。

40特别报道Special Report显高于900万人以上的预期目标，完成全年目标的131.8%。

2020年年均城镇调查失业率为5.6%，低于6%左右的预期目标。

2020年末，城镇登记失业率为4.24%，低于5.5%左右的预期目标。

全年农民工总量28560万人，比上年减少517万人，下降1.8%。

其中，本地农民工11601万人，下降0.4%；外出农民工16959万人，下降2.7%。

农民工月均收入水平4072元，比上年增长2.8%。

外贸正增长，机电产品出口占比59.4%全年货物进出口总额321557亿元，比上年增长1.9%。

其中，出口179326亿元，增长4.0%；进口142231亿元，下降0.7%。

进出口相抵，顺差为37096亿元。

机电产品出口增长6%，占出口总额的59.4%，比上年提高1.1个百分点。

一般贸易进出口占进出口总额的比重为59.9%，比上年提高0.9个百分点。

民营企业进出口增长11.1%，占进出口总额的比重为46.6%，比上年提高3.9个百分点。

居民收入增长与经济增长基本同步全年全国居民人均可支配收入32189元，比上年名义增长4.7%，扣除价格因素实际增长2.1%，与经济增长基本同步。

按常住地分，城镇居民人均可支配收入43834元，比上年名义增长3.5%，扣除价格因素实际增长1.2%；农村居民人均可支配收入17131元，比上年名义增长6.9%，扣除价格因素实际增长3.8%。

城乡居民人均收入比值为2.56，比上年缩小0.08。

全国居民人均可支配收入中位数27540元，比上年名义增长3.8%。

全国人均消费支出21210元全年全国居民人均消费支出21210元，比上年名义下降1.6%，扣除价格因素实际下降4.0%。

按常住地分，城镇居民人均消费支出27007元，名义下降3.8%；农村居民人均消费支出13713元，名义增长2.9%。

房地产开发投资14.1万亿元，同比增长7%2020年1—12月，全国房地产开发投资141443亿元，比上年增长7.0%。

中国经济区划研究及再划分内容摘要：目前，中国经济区划已脱离了经济区划的初衷，东中西部已成为一个经济发展水平的代名词，已不能因地制宜地指导地区经济发展，有必要重新界定我国经济区划。

关键词：中国经济区划再划分中国经济区划的演变与发展当我们进行地区间比较分析时，必须首先明确中国的经济区划。

中国经济区划经过一个漫长的演变过程。

建国以后的较长时期，中国经济区划一直采用“两分法”，即全国划分为沿海与内地。

1954年又建立了东北、华北、华东、华中、华南、西南、西北七大经济协作区。

1961年华中区与华南区合并为中南区，全国划分为六大经济协作区。

在《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第七个五年计划的建议》中提出，要“正确处理中国东部、中部、西部三个经济带的关系”，由此提出东中西三个经济带。

在20世纪80年代中期，以杨素珍为代表的，为了揭示中国不同层次的社会劳动地域分工的规律和特点，将全国划分为十大经济区，即东北区、华北区、华东区、华中区、华南区、西南区、西北区、内蒙古区、新疆区、西藏区。

“九五”期间又形成七大经济区，即东部地区、环渤海地区、长江三角地区、东南沿海地区、中部地区、西南和东南部分省区、西北地区。

1984年5月，在“中国经济发展中的地区发展战略研究”学术研讨会上，经济学家于光远先生发表了中国经济区域划分的看法，先按降雨量为400毫米的等降雨线把中国划分为西部和北部、东部和南部两半，并且从人口、经济发达程度等诸多方面进行辅证，支持其两分法。

1985年8月，在兰州举行的“中国西部地区经济发展讨论会”上，与会学者将内蒙古、新疆、宁夏、陕西、甘肃、青海、西藏、广西、云南、贵州和四川界定为西部地区，至此“西部地区”、“西部经济”的概念和思想便形成了。

与西部地区界定的同时，“中部地区”的构想已经在酝酿之中了。

1985年11月在南昌召开的“全国地区发展战略研究工作交流会”上，学术界开始提出中国经济“三分法”，即东、中、西三部分。

2020中国统计年鉴2020中国统计年鉴一、引言中国统计年鉴是中国国家统计局每年发布的一本全面反映国家及各行业经济、社会发展情况的综合性年度统计资料参考书。

本文对2020年中国统计年鉴进行全面解读和分析，以期对中国经济社会发展做以深入了解。

二、综述2020年，中国面临着严峻的挑战，全球疫情对经济社会发展造成了重大冲击。

然而，中国通过坚定的领导和科学的措施，在疫情防控和经济复苏方面取得了显著成效。

从GDP总量看，2020年中国的国内生产总值为101.60万亿元，比上年增长2.3%。

这表明中国经济在疫情冲击下保持了相对稳定的增长态势。

尤其是在第四季度，中国GDP增速加快至6.5%，为全球经济复苏注入了强劲动力。

三、人口与就业2020年，中国的总人口增长持续放缓，年末总人口为14.79亿人，较上年增长0.39%。

同时，城镇化进程持续推进，城镇人口比例达到了60.6%。

在就业方面，2020年全国城镇新增就业1182万人，实现了连续多年的稳定增长。

同时，失业率也保持在较低的水平上，这得益于中国经济的强劲复苏和政府的积极就业政策。

四、农业与农村中国的农业产量在2020年保持了相对稳定的增长，全年粮食产量为6.42亿吨，比上年增长0.9%。

与此同时，农村地区的基础设施建设和公共服务水平也有了显著进步。

农村贫困问题在2020年得到了进一步解决，全年农村贫困人口减少了1100万人。

这主要得益于中国政府对扶贫工作的持续投入和多项扶贫政策的有效实施。

五、工业与服务业2020年，中国的工业产能稳步提升，工业增加值比上年增长2.8%。

尤其是高技术制造业和装备制造业的增长速度更加显著，为中国经济的结构调整和转型升级注入了新的活力。

服务业在2020年发挥了重要的支撑作用，全年增加值比上年增长2.2%。

尤其是信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业以及金融业的增长速度明显加快，为中国经济的创新发展提供了重要支持。

六、投资与消费2020年，中国的固定资产投资增长速度放缓，比上年下降3.1%，这主要受到疫情影响和减少地方政府融资平台投资的影响。

China's Remarkable Economic GrowthChina's economic development has been nothing short of astounding, transforming the country from a predominantly agricultural society into a global economic powerhouse. Over the past few decades, China has achieved remarkable growth rates, becoming one of the largest economies in the world. This transformation is a testament to the country's resilience, innovation, and determination to modernize and industrialize.One of the key factors driving China's economic growth has been its commitment to market-oriented reforms. Since the late 1970s, China has gradually opened up its economy to foreign investment and trade, fostering a vibrant business environment that has attracted companies from across the globe. This process of globalization has not only brought capital and technology into the country but has also created millions of jobs and lifted millions out of poverty.Moreover, China's vast population and growing middle class have provided a庞大的市场 for consumer goods and services. This has spurred the development of variousindustries, including manufacturing, construction, and technology. China has become a leading exporter of goods such as electronics, textiles, and toys, while its domestic market has become increasingly lucrative for foreign brands and investors.Another significant aspect of China's economic growthis its commitment to infrastructure development. The country has invested heavily in roads, railways, bridges, airports, and other critical infrastructure, which has facilitated the movement of goods and people across the vast country. This infrastructure development has also created jobs and driven economic growth in rural and underdeveloped areas.However, China's economic growth has not been without challenges. The country faces issues such as environmental degradation, income inequality, and overdependence on exports. To address these challenges, China has embarked on a series of structural reforms, including shifting its focus from investment-driven growth to consumption-led growth and promoting sustainable development.Despite these challenges, China's economic future remains bright. The country continues to invest in research and development, fostering innovation and technological advancements. China is also gradually opening up its financial markets, allowing for greater integration with the global economy.In conclusion, China's economic development is a remarkable success story that has transformed the country and lifted millions out of poverty. Its commitment to market-oriented reforms, vast population, and growing middle class, along with significant investments in infrastructure, have been key drivers of this growth. While challenges remain, China's economic future remains promising, with the potential for continued growth and prosperity.**中国经济的显著增长**中国的经济发展可谓惊人，使中国从一个以农业为主的社会转变为全球经济强国。

考研英语二翻译真题、参考答案和来源分析"Sustainability" has become a popular word these days, but to Ted Ning,the concept will always have personal meaning. Having endured a painful period of unsustainability in his own life made it clear to him that sustainability-oriented values must be expressed through every day action and choice.当今，“可持续性”已经成为了一个流行的词语.但是，对特德宁来说，它对这个词有着自身的体会.在忍受了一段痛苦的、难以为继的生活之后，他清楚地认识到，以可持续发展为导向的生活价值必须通过日常的活动和做出的选择表现出来.Ning recalls spending a confusing year in the late 1990s selling insurance. He'd been through the dot-com boom and burst and, desperate for a job, signed on with a Boulder agency.宁回忆了在上个世纪90年代末期的某一年，他卖保险，那是一种浑浑噩噩的生活.在经历了网络经济的兴盛和衰败之后，他非常渴望得到一份工作，于是和一家博德的代理公司签了合约.It didn't go well. "It was a really bad move because that's not my passion," says Ning, whose dilemma about the job translated, predictably, into a lack of sales. "I was miserable. I had so much anxiety that I would wake up in the middle of the night and stare at the ceiling. I had no money and needed the job. Everyone said,” Just wait, you'll turn the corner, give it some time.''事情进展不顺，“那的确是很糟糕的一种选择，因为那并非是我的激情所在，”宁如是说.可以想象，他这种工作上的窘境是由于销售业绩不良造成的.“我觉得很悲哀.我太担心了，以至于我会在半夜醒来，盯着天花板.没有钱，我需要这份工作.每个人都会说，等吧，总会有转机的，给点时间吧.”原文：原文是来自一份杂志，叫“experience life”，出题人做了部分改动，原文和改动的文章如下：Sustainability has become something of a buzzword(出题人把这个单词改为popular word) these days, but to Ted Ning, the concept will always have personal meaning. Having endured a painful period of unsustainability in his own life made it clear to him that sustainability-oriented values must be expressed through everyday action and choice.Ning, director of LOHAS (Lifestyles of Health and Sustainability), the Boulder, Colo.–based information clearinghouse on sustainable living, recalls spending a tumultuous（出题人把这个词改为了confusing） year i n the late ’90s selling insurance. He’d been through the dot-com boom and bust（出题人似乎把这个词改为burst了） and, desperate for a job, signed on with a Boulder agency.It didn’t go well. “It was a really bad move because that’s not my passion,” says Ning, whose ambivalence about the job translated, predictably, into a lack of sales. “I was miserable. I had so much anxiety that I would pull alongside of the highway and vomit, or wake up in the middle of the night and stare at the ceiling.I had no money and needed the job. Everyone said, ‘Just wait, you’ll turn the corner, give it some time.’”Ning stuck it out for a year because he simply didn’t know what else to do, but felt his happiness and health suffer as a result. He eventually quit and stumbled upon LOHAS in a help-wanted ad for a data analyst. “I didn’t know what LOHAS was,” he says, “but it sounded kinda neat.” It turned out to be a better fit than he could have ever imagined.At the time, the LOHAS organization did little more than host a small annual conference in Boulder. It was a forum where progressive-minded companies could gather to compare notes on how to reach a values-driven segment of consumers —the LOHAS market — who seemed attracted to products and services that mirrored their interest in health, environmental stewardship, social justice, personal development and sustainable living.In contrast with his disastrous foray into the insurance business, Ning’s new job felt like coming home. Growing up in the foothills of the Rockies outside of Denver, he’d developed a love of the outdoors and a respect for the earth, while his parents provided a model of social activism —the family traveled widely, and at one point his parents created and operated a nonprofit that offered microcredit loans to small businesses in Vietnam and Guatemala. He has three adopted sisters from Vietnam and Korea. He studied international relations and Chinese at Colorado University and slipped easily into the Boulder lifestyle — commuting by bike, eating organics, buying local and the rest —though he stopped short of the patchouli-and-dreadlocks phase embraced by many of his peers. (He opted instead for the university’s ski team and, after graduating, wound up coaching the Japanese development team during the Nagano Olympics in 1998.)From his ground-level job, Ning moved quickly up the ranks in the organization, becoming its executive director in 2006. “When I got the job, LOHAS was a sleepy conference in Boulder,” says Ning. Today, the forum is booming, the organizationis expanding and the market is evolving. Ning has more than grown into the position he stumbled on in the want ads. “I don’t consider this a job. It is really more of a calling.”Ning, 41, coordinates the conference and oversees the organization’s annual journal and Web site (), while compiling research on trends and opportunities for businesses. He also travels the country promoting —and explaining —the LOHAS concept and the burgeoning market it represents.First identified by sociologist Paul Ray in the mid-1990s as “cultural creatives,” the U.S. market segment that embraces LOHAS today has grown to about 41 million consumers, or roughly 19 percent of American adults. But those LOHAS consumers are powerfully influencing the attitudes and behaviors of others (witness the rise of interest in yoga, all-natural products, simplicity and hybrid vehicles). Which is why LOHAS-related products now generate an estimated $209 billion annually.“Over the last two years a green tidal wave has come over us,” says Ning. Riding that wave, says Ning, is not about jumping on a trend bandwagon. It’s connecting with — and acting on —a set of shared, instrinsic values. “People know what is authentic. You can’t preach this lifestyle and not live it,” he says. He and his wife, Jenifer, live in a solar-powered home, raise organic vegetables in their backyard and drive a car that gets 48 miles to the gallon. He even buys carbon offsets to negate the global warming impact of his cell phone.Ning emphasizes that there are many different ways of “living LOHAS.” Ultimately, it’s really about finding a way of life that makes sense and feels good —now and for the long haul. “People are looking internally,” he says, “asking themselves,‘What really makes me happy?’ Is it the fact that I can go out and buy that giant flat-screen TV, or is it that I can have a quiet evening with my family just hanging out and playing a game of Scrabble?”For Ning, it’s a no-brainer. He’ll take Scrabble ev ery time.Laine Bergeson is an Experience Life senior editor.考研英语二翻译真题、参考答案和来源分析Who would have thought that, globally, the IT industry produces about the same volumes of greenhouse gases as the world’s airlines do-rough 2 percent of all CO2 emissions?全球范围内，信息技术行业与航空业产生的温室气体总量相同——约占二氧化碳排放总量的2%，这有谁曾想到过？Many everyday tasks take a surprising toll on the environment. A Google search can leak between 0.2 and 7.0 grams of CO2 depending on how many attempts are needed to get the “right” answer. To deliver results to its users quickly, then, Google has to maintain vast data centres round the world, packed with powerful computers. While producing large quantities of CO2, these computers emit a great deal of heat, so the centres need to be well air-conditioned, which uses even more energy.许多日常工作对环境造成的损失大得惊人.每一次谷歌搜索能释放0.2到0.7克的二氧化碳，这取决于为了获得“正确”答案你试过多少次.为了迅速向用户提供搜索结果，谷歌不得不在世界各地建立大型数据中心，安装一台台强大的计算机.这些计算机不仅产生大量的二氧化碳，还释放大量热能，因此这些数据中心需要良好的空调设备，这甚至会耗费更多的能源.However, Google and other big tech providers monitor their efficiency closely and make improvements. Monitoring is the first step on the road to reduction, but there is much to be done, and not just by big companies.然而，谷歌和其他大型技术供应商严密地监控其效果，并做出改进.监控是减排的第一步，仍有太多问题需要解决，并且不只是由大公司来解决.原文：Who would have thought that, globally, the IT industry produces about the same volume of greenhouse gases as the world's airlines do - roughly 2 per cent of all CO2 emissions?Many everyday tasks take a surprising toll on the environment. A Google search can leak between 0.2 and 7.0 grams of CO2, depending on how many attempts are needed to get the "right" answer. At the upper end of the scale, two searches create roughly the same emissions as boiling a kettle.To deliver results to its users quickly, Google has to maintain vast data centres around the world, packed with powerful computers. As well as producing large quantities of CO2, these computers emit a great deal of heat, so the centres need to be well air-conditioned - which uses even more energy.However, Google and other big tech providers such as BT, IBM, Microsoft and Amazon monitor their efficiency closely and make improvements. (Google claims to be more efficient than most.) Recently, industry and government agencies from theUS, Europe and Japan reached an agreement, orchestrated by the Green Grid, an American industry consortium, on how to benchmark the energy efficiency of data centres. Monitoring is the first step on the road to reduction, but there's much more to be done, and not just by big companies.Simple things - such as turning devices off when they are not in use - can help to reduce the impact of our love affair with all things digital. Research from the National Energy Foundation in the UK found that nearly 20 per cent of workers don't turn their PCs off at the end ofthe day, wasting 1.5 billion kWh of electricity per year - which equates to the annual CO2 produced by 200,000 small family cars.Technology could have a huge role to play in reducing energy consumption - just think of the number of car and bus journeys saved by something as simple as online banking. But the sector must still work harder to get its own house in order.Jason Stamper is NS technology correspondent and editor of Computer Business Review考研英语二翻译真题、参考答案和来源分析When people in developing countries worry about migration, they are usually concerned at the prospect of their best and brightest departure to Silicon Valley or to hospitals and universities in the developed world. These are the kind of workers that countries like Britain, Canada Australia try to attract by using immigration rules that privilege college graduates.发展中国家的人们若为移民问题操心，往往是想到硅谷或发达国家的医院和大学去创造自己最辉煌的未来.英国、加拿大和澳大利亚等国给大学毕业生提供的优惠移民政策，就是为了吸引这部分人群.Lots of studies have found that well-educated people from developing countries are particularly likely to emigrate. A big survey of Indian households in 2004 found that nearly 40% of emigrants had more than a high-school education, compared with around 3.3% of all Indians over the age of 25. The “brain drain” has long bothered policymakers in poor countries. They fear that it hurts their economies, depriving them of much-needed skilled workers who could have taught at their universities, worked in their hospitals and come up with clever new products for their factories to make.诸多研究表明，发展中国家受过良好教育的人才往往可能有移民倾向.2004年，曾针对印度家庭进行过一次大型调查，结果发现，近40%有移民倾向的人受过中学以上教育，而25岁以上的印度人只有约3.3%受过中学以上教育.“人才流失”问题长期以来一直让发展中国家的决策者很苦恼，他们担心这种情况会危及其经济发展，夺去他们紧缺的技术人才，而这些人才本该在他们自己的大学任教，在他们自己的医院工作，为他们自己的工厂研发新产品.原文：WHEN people in rich countries worry about migration, they tend to think of low-paid incomers who compete for jobs as construction workers, dishwashers or farmhands. When people in developing countries worry about migration, they are usually concerned at the prospect of their best and brightest decamping to Silicon Valley or to hospitals and universities in the developed world. These are the kind of workers that countries like Britain, Canada and Australia try to attract by using immigration rules that privilege college graduates.Lots of studies have found that well-educated people from developing countries are particularly likely to emigrate. By some estimates, two-thirds of highly educated Cape Verdeans live outside the country. A big survey of Indian households carried out in 2004 asked about family members who had moved abroad. It found that nearly 40% of emigrants had more than a high-school education, compared with around 3.3% of all Indians over the age of 25. This “brain drain” has long bothered policymakers in poor countries. They fear that it hurts their economies, depriving them of much-needed skilled workers who could have taught at their universities, worked in their hospitals and come up with clever new products for their factories to make.Many now take issue with this view (see article). Several economists reckon that the brain-drain hypothesis fails to account for the effects of remittances, for the beneficial effects of returning migrants, and for the possibility that being able to migrate to greener pastures induces people to get more education. Some argue that once these factors are taken into account, an exodus of highly skilled people could turn out to be a net benefit to the countries they leave. Recent studies of migration from countries as far apart as Ghana, Fiji, India and Romania have found support for this “brain gain” idea.The most obvious way in which migrants repay their homelands is through remittances. Workers from developing countries remitted a total of $325 billion in 2010, according to the World Bank. In Lebanon, Lesotho, Nepal, Tajikistan and a few other places, remittances are more than 20% of GDP. A skilled migrant may earn several multiples of what his income would have been had he stayed at home. A study of Romanian migrantsto America found that the average emigrant earned almost $12,000 a year more in America than he would have done in his native land, a huge premium for someone from a country where income per person is around $7,500 (at market exchange rates).It is true that many skilled migrants have been educated and trained partly at the expense of their (often cash-strapped) governments. Some argue that poor countries should therefore rethink how much they spend on higher education. Indians, for example, often debate whether their government should continue to subsidise the Indian Institutes of Technology (IITs), its elite engineering schools, when large numbers of IIT graduates end up in Silicon Valley or on Wall Street. But a new study of remittances sent home by Ghanaian migrants suggests that on average they transfer enough over their working lives to cover the amount spent on educating them several times over. The study finds that once remittances are taken into account, the cost of education would have to be 5.6 times the official figure to make it a losing proposition for Ghana.There are more subtle ways in which the departure of some skilled people may aid poorer countries. Some emigrants would have been jobless had they stayed. Studies have found that unemployment rates among young people with college degrees in countries like Morocco and Tunisia are several multiples of those among the poorly educated, perhaps because graduates are more demanding. Migration may lead to a more productive pairing of people's skills and jobs. Some of the benefits of this improved match then flow back to the migrant's home country, most directly via remittances.The possibility of emigration may even have beneficial effects on those who choose to stay, by giving people in poor countries an incentive to invest in education.A study of Cape Verdeans finds that an increase of ten percentage points in young people's perceived probability of emigrating raises the probability of their completing secondary school by around eight points. Another study looks at Fiji.A series of coups beginning in 1987 was seen by Fijians of Indian origin as permanently harming their prospects in the country by limiting their share of government jobs and political power. This set off a wave of emigration. Yet young Indians in Fiji became more likely to go to university even as the outlook at home dimmed, in part because Australia, Canada and New Zealand, three of the top destinations for Fijians, put more emphasis on attracting skilled migrants. Since some of those who got more education ended up staying, the skill levels of the resident Fijian population soared.1、最困难的事就是认识自己。