国际统计年鉴2018全球世界各国社会经济发展指标：8-8 中央政府财政盈余占GDP比重

Country Subject Descriptor Units Afghanistan Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Albania Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Algeria Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Angola Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Antigua and Barbuda Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Argentina Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Armenia Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Aruba Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Australia Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Austria Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Azerbaijan Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars The Bahamas Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Bahrain Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Bangladesh Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Barbados Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Belarus Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Belgium Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Belize Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Benin Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Bhutan Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Bolivia Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Bosnia and Herzegovina Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Botswana Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Brazil Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Brunei Darussalam Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Bulgaria Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Burkina Faso Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Burundi Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Cabo Verde Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Cambodia Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Cameroon Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Canada Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollarsGross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Central African RepublicChad Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Chile Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars China Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Colombia Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Comoros Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollarsGross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Democratic Republic of tRepublic of Congo Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Costa Rica Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars C魌e d'Ivoire Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Croatia Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Cyprus Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Czech Republic Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Denmark Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Djibouti Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Dominica Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Dominican Republic Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Ecuador Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Egypt Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollarsEthiopia Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Fiji Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Finland Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars France Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Gabon Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars The Gambia Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Georgia Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Germany Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Ghana Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Greece Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Grenada Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Guatemala Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Guinea Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Guinea-Bissau Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Guyana Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Haiti Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Honduras Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Hong Kong SAR Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Hungary Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Iceland Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars India Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Indonesia Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollarsGross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Islamic Republic of IranIraq Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Ireland Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Israel Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Italy Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Jamaica Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Japan Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Jordan Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Kazakhstan Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Kenya Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Kiribati Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Korea Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Kosovo Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Kuwait Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Kyrgyz Republic Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Lao P.D.R.Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Latvia Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Lebanon Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Lesotho Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Liberia Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Libya Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Lithuania Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Luxembourg Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Macao SAR Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars FYR Macedonia Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Madagascar Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Malawi Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollarsMauritania Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Mauritius Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Mexico Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Micronesia Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Moldova Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Mongolia Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Montenegro Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Morocco Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Mozambique Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Myanmar Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Namibia Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Nauru Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Nepal Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Netherlands Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars New Zealand Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Nicaragua Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Niger Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Nigeria Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Norway Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Oman Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Pakistan Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Palau Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Panama Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Papua New Guinea Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Paraguay Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Peru Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Philippines Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Poland Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Portugal Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Puerto Rico Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Qatar Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Romania Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Russia Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Rwanda Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Samoa Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars San Marino Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars S鉶 Tom?and Pr韓cipe Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Saudi Arabia Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Senegal Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Serbia Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Seychelles Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Sierra Leone Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Singapore Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Slovak Republic Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Slovenia Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Solomon Islands Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Somalia Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars South Africa Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars South Sudan Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollarsSt. Vincent and the GrenGross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Sudan Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Suriname Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Sweden Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Switzerland Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Syria Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollarsGross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Taiwan Province of ChinaTajikistan Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Tanzania Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Thailand Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Timor-Leste Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Togo Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Tonga Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Trinidad and Tobago Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Tunisia Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Turkey Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Turkmenistan Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Tuvalu Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Uganda Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Ukraine Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars United Arab Emirates Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars United Kingdom Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars United States Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Uruguay Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Uzbekistan Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Vanuatu Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Venezuela Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Vietnam Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Yemen Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Zambia Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars Zimbabwe Gross domestic product, current prices U.S. dollars International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2018Scale Country/Series-specific NotesBillions See notes for: Gross domestic product, current prices (National currency). Billions See notes for: Gross domestic product, current prices (National currency). Billions See notes for: Gross domestic product, current prices (National currency). Billions See notes for: Gross domestic product, current prices (National currency). Billions See notes for: Gross domestic product, current prices (National currency). Billions See notes for: Gross domestic product, current prices (National currency). Billions See notes for: Gross domestic product, current prices (National currency). Billions See notes for: Gross domestic product, current prices (National currency). Billions See notes for: Gross domestic product, current prices (National currency). Billions See notes for: Gross domestic product, current prices (National currency). Billions See notes for: Gross domestic product, current prices (National currency). Billions See notes for: Gross domestic product, current prices (National currency). 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2018年全球宏观经济分析2017年至2018年一季度，全球经济处于强劲复苏阶段，全球制造业景气上升，大宗商品价格上涨，进出口增速加快，主要和新兴经济体增速提升，但从四月份开始受两个主要事件影响全球经济发生逆转。

一是四月占全球经济总量40%前两大经济体中美贸易战正式开打并持续升级，美欧、美日摩擦也开始加剧，除美之外主要经济体的制造业复苏、进出口规模、经济增速、经济信心均受贸易战阴霾影响；二是三月末美联储由之前海伦的鸽派加息变为鲍威尔的鹰派加息，加息次数从三次升为四次，四到八月美元强势上涨了5%，人民币快速贬值10%，日元、欧元贬值5-7%，并相继引发了土耳其、阿根廷、南非和印尼等新兴经济体的货币危机。

受这两个主要因素影响，全球大宗商品价格大幅回落，制造业景气转为低迷、进出口增速掉头减速，中欧日和新兴经济体二三四季度经济增速持续下滑，IMF调低2018-2019年全球经济增速预期。

美欧经济继续向好。

截至目前，全球经济的复苏态势并无放缓迹象。

而从中国最大的贸易伙伴，美国和欧盟看，二者经济均延续向好态势。

美国三季度GDP环比折年率创下2014年四季度以来新高3.3%，美联储12月会议将2018年美国经济增速预测由此前的2.1%上调至2.5%，失业率预测由4.1%下调至3.9%，体现了对美国经济的乐观预期。

欧元区12月制造业PMI初值创下数据发布以来新高60.6，景气程度继续向好，欧央行近期也将欧元区2018年经济增速预测自1.8%上调至2.3%。

相对2017年，中东北非地区宏观经济在2018年有所改善。

报告预计布伦特原油价格将由2017年每桶54.8美元上涨至均价每桶65美元，为此该地区石油输出国财政收入将会增加，相应财政支出增长将会带动地区经济活动发展。

该地区石油进口国的经济则会因受结构性改革以及政治局势趋稳的推动而有所改观。

报告认为，2018年中东北非地区整体经济形势乐观，这一地区实际国内生产总值将达3%，高出对2017年的预计水平（2.6%）。

2018年全球竞争力报告2018年全球竞争力报告于近日发布，引起了全球范围内的广泛关注。

这份报告涵盖了全球范围内的经济、科技、教育、创新等方面的数据和分析，对于全球竞争力的状况和趋势进行了深入的研究和解读。

本文将对这份报告的主要内容进行介绍和分析。

全球竞争力报告对世界各国的经济竞争力进行了全面评估，其中包括了国家的经济规模、经济增长率、创新能力、企业环境、人才储备等多方面的指标。

通过对这些指标的分析比较，报告显示，全球竞争力的格局正在发生深刻的变化，新兴经济体的崛起正在对传统发达国家的竞争力产生重要挑战。

报告指出，中国、印度、巴西等新兴国家的经济增长速度迅猛，创新能力不断提升，逐渐成为全球经济竞争的重要力量。

这一趋势不仅对传统的发达国家构成了挑战，也为全球经济的格局带来了新的变化和机遇。

报告还对全球科技行业的竞争力进行了深入分析。

随着人工智能、云计算、物联网等新兴技术的涌现，科技创新对于国家的竞争力越来越重要。

报告显示，美国、中国、日本等国家在人工智能和云计算等领域的技术积累和应用上处于领先地位，而其他国家在这方面的投入和成果相对滞后。

这一趋势引发了国际社会的广泛关注，人们开始重新审视各国在科技领域的优势和劣势，以及未来的发展方向。

在教育领域，全球竞争力报告也进行了相关的研究。

教育是国家竞争力的重要支撑，而世界各国在教育投入和教育质量上存在着明显的差异。

报告指出，芬兰、新加坡等国家在教育水平和质量方面处于领先地位，而一些发展中国家的教育投入和教育质量还有待提升。

这也反映了不同国家在人才培养和科技创新方面的差距，值得各国政府和社会各界的深思和重视。

全球竞争力报告还对企业环境、人才储备、投资环境等方面进行了综合评估，为国际社会提供了一份全面的竞争力分析报告。

这份报告的发布引起了广泛关注，也为全球经济和科技领域的发展提供了重要的参考和借鉴。

从这份报告的内容和研究成果来看，全球竞争力的格局正在发生着深刻的变化。

2018年全国国民经济和社会发展总体情况一、综合初步核算，全年国内生产总值900309亿元，比上年增长6.6%。

其中，第一产业增加值64734亿元，增长3.5%；第二产业增加值366001亿元，增长5.8%；第三产业增加值469575亿元，增长7.6%。

第一产业增加值占国内生产总值的比重为7.2%，第二产业增加值比重为40.7%，第三产业增加值比重为52.2%。

全年最终消费支出对国内生产总值增长的贡献率为76.2%，资本形成总额的贡献率为32.4%，货物和服务净出口的贡献率为-8.6%。

人均国内生产总值64644元，比上年增长6.1%。

国民总收入896915亿元，比上年增长6.5%。

全国万元国内生产总值能耗[4]比上年下降3.1%。

全员劳动生产率为107327元/人，比上年提高6.6%。

年末全国大陆总人口139538万人，比上年末增加530万人，其中城镇常住人口83137万人，占总人口比重（常住人口城镇化率）为59.58%，比上年末提高1.06个百分点。

户籍人口城镇化率为43.37%，比上年末提高1.02个百分点。

全年出生人口1523万人，出生率为10.94‰；死亡人口993万人，死亡率为7.13‰；自然增长率为3.81‰。

全国人户分离的人口[6]2.86亿人，其中流动人口2.41亿人。

表12018年年末人口数及其构成年末全国就业人员77586万人，其中城镇就业人员43419万人。

全年城镇新增就业1361万人，比上年增加10万人。

年末全国城镇调查失业率为4.9%，比上年末下降0.1个百分点；城镇登记失业率为3.8%，下降0.1个百分点。

全国农民工总量28836万人，比上年增长0.6%。

其中，外出农民工17266万人，增长0.5%；本地农民工11570万人，增长0.9%。

全年居民消费价格比上年上涨2.1%。

工业生产者出厂价格上涨3.5%。

工业生产者购进价格上涨4.1%。

固定资产投资价格上涨5.4%。

2018财政风险：全球总体舒缓，局部压力聚集2018年，全球财政赤字水平将延续上一年的回落趋势，财政风险总体降低。

新兴市场与发达经济体的财政状况同步改善，是全球财政失衡总体舒缓的主要原因。

但是，2018年财政巩固的实施进程仍将面临较大不确定性，局部地区的财政风险正在聚集。

以巴西、沙特为代表，拉美国家和石油出口国可能率先陷入财政危机，并形成严重的外溢冲击。

这一威胁亦将强化石油出口国的“去美元化”需求，推动其转向石油人民币、石油欧元等多元化石油计价结算体系。

全球财政失衡总体舒缓根据IMF预测数据推算，总量层面，2018年全球财政赤字总额为2.55万亿美元，较上年下降0.13万亿美元。

全球赤字率（财政赤字/GDP）为3.03％，较上年回落0.36个百分点，虽然仍高于危机初期2007年和2008年的0.65％和2.16％，但是已经接近3％国际警戒线。

分布层面，2018年，在全球有统计数据的191个经济体中，158个经济体预计将出现财政赤字，数量较上年减少3个，仍高于危机初期2007年和2008年的98个和119个。

结构层面，2018年，有82个经济体的财政赤字率高于3％，同比减少10个，仍高于2007年和2008年的34个和53个。

有40个经济体的财政赤字率高于5％，同比减少9个，高于2007年和2008年的19个和21个。

从以上数据可知，2018年，全球财政失衡虽然不会恢复到危机前水平，但总体将延续2017年的向好趋势，出现普遍且明显的舒缓。

中、高风险的经济体数量持续下降，全球财政风险的覆盖范围开始收窄。

新兴、发达两翼同步改善2018年，随着全球多元化再度涨潮，新兴市场与发达经济体的财政状况同步改善，扭转了2017年新兴市场的落后态势。

变动趋势层面，根据IMF的预测数据，2018年发达经济体的总体财政赤字率为4.17％，较上年下降0.23个百分点。

2018年新兴市场的总体财政赤字率为2.26％，较上年下降0.47个百分点。