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“十四五”时期中国经济潜在增速测算作者：刘哲希陈彦斌来源：《改革》2020年第10期摘要：“十四五”时期，我国经济增长需要保持一定的速度，这样才能既巩固全面建成小康社会的伟大成就，又为建成社会主义现代化强国打下坚实基础。
基于生产函数法测算发现，由于“十四五”时期中国经济将处于资本和劳动等“老动力”减弱而TFP和人力资本等“新动力”不足的过渡期，基准情形下中国经济潜在增速将下降至5.1%左右。
考虑到外部环境、新冠肺炎疫情以及经济与金融风险三大主要不确定性因素的影响，潜在增速有可能进一步下滑，对此需要高度警惕。
结合本文的测算结果，预计中国将在2023年前后人均国民总收入达到高收入国家的门槛值，但这不能简单地等价于跨越“中等收入陷阱”。
中国真正跨越“中等收入陷阱”，还面临经济增长方式转型和壮大中等收入群体等重要挑战。
为此，中国应采取进一步深化市场化改革以加快经济增长动力转换、推进收入分配制度改革以扩大中等收入群体等一系列举措，从而保证中国经济平稳健康发展，为实现第二个百年奋斗目标打下扎实基础。
关键词：经济增长;潜在增速;中等收入陷阱;社会主义现代化中图分类号：F124 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1003-7543（2020）10-0033-17“十四五”时期对于中国经济发展具有重要的战略意义，是“两个一百年”奋斗目标的历史交汇期，肩负着承上启下的重要使命。
以全面建成小康社会为新起点，“十四五”时期中国将开始向建成社会主义现代化强国的第二个百年奋斗目标迈进。
虽然社会主义现代化的内涵是广泛的，但不可忽视的是，经济体量的较快增长与人均收入水平的持续提升是一个国家迈向现代化的重要基础。
刘伟、陈彦斌从跨越“中等收入陷阱”、跻身创新型国家前列以及迈向发达经济体三个维度进行分析后认为，中国要到2035年基本实现社会主义现代化，需要在2020—2035年至少完成人均实际GDP水平翻一番的任务，年均GDP实际增速达到4.8%左右[1]。
地区各地合计2015年2014年2013年2012年2011年2010年北京市72682.437446.026873.446847.066112.45578.935402.95天津市74325.2511814.5710490.379130.257934.87067.676278.09河北省187420.6428905.7426147.223194.2319661.316389.3315083.35山西省81691.7213744.5911979.9611031.898863.37073.066063.17内蒙古自治区106454.7313529.1517431.0514217.3811875.710365.178926.46辽宁省179283.717640.3724426.8325107.6621836.317726.2916043.03吉林省85228.5112508.5911254.849979.269511.57441.717870.38黑龙江省80416.369884.289587.0911453.089694.77475.386812.56上海市78506.366349.396012.975647.795117.64962.075108.9江苏省304657.1145905.1741552.7536373.3230854.226692.6223184.28浙江省163900.242664.7223554.7620782.1117649.414185.2812376.04安徽省140384.9823803.9321069.2418621.915425.812455.6911542.94福建省118618.920973.9817911.7115327.4412439.99910.898199.12江西省100347.821699314677.0412850.2510774.29087.68772.27山东省307776.447381.4641599.1336789.0731********.6823280.52河南省206617.7334951.2830012.2826087.462145017768.9516585.86湖北省145473.1326086.4222491.6719307.3315578.312557.3410262.7湖南省134042.4124324.1720575.3317841.414523.211880.929663.58广东省216843.8329950.4825843.0622308.3918751.517069.215623.7广西壮族自治区89127.9515654.9513287.611907.679808.67990.667057.56海南省19931.013355.43039.462697.932145.41657.231317.04重庆市82917.8814208.1512136.5210435.248736.27473.386688.91四川省161068.1624965.5622662.2620326.111704014222.2213116.72贵州省43903.5510676.78778,47373.65717.84235.923104.92云南省76479.9713069.3911073.869968.37831.161915528.71西藏自治区7079.181295.681069.23876670.5516.31462.67陕西省106194.5118231.0316840.4414884.1512044.59431.087963.67甘肃省47016.978626.67759.626527.9451453965.793158.34青海省16980.483144.172788.912361.091883.41435.581016.87宁夏回族自治区19464.263144.173093.922651.142096.91644.741444.16新疆维吾尔自治区51537.683426.429058.317732.36158.84632.143423.24注：从2011年起，城镇固定资产投资数据发布口径改为固定资产投资（不含农户），固定资产投资（不含农户）等于原口径的城镇数据来源：网络整理1990年-2015年中国各省及直辖市自治区固定资产投资统计(亿元)2009年2008年2007年2006年2005年2004年2003年2002年2001年4616.923814.733907.23296.382827.232528.212169.261796.141513.324738.23389.792353.151820.521495.141245.661039.39807.5170512269.88866.566884.685470.244139.693218.762477.982020.381912.534943.163531.162861.462255.741826.581443.881100.86813.36663.587336.795475.414372.883363.212643.61787.951174.66707.91503.6312292.4910019.077435.235689.644200.452979.592076.361605.551421.19 6411.65038.923651.362594.341741.091169.1969.03834.23701.75028.833655.972833.522361737.271430.821166.181046.17963.585043.754823.154420.373900.043509.663050.262499.142213.722004.6418949.8715300.5512268.0610069.228165.386557.0552333450.122823.210742.3293238420.437590.226520.075781.354740.273477.472834.948990.736746.965087.533533.562525.111935.251418.691074.46893.376231.25207.684287.752981.822316.721892.921496.371253.081172.916643.144745.433301.942683.572176.61713.21303.22889.04631.8419034.5315435.9312537.711111.429307.36970.625315.143483.312788.6813704.510490.648010.115904.714311.633099.382262.971725.931544.067866.895647.014330.363343.472676.582264.811809.451605.061486.557703.385534.044154.763175.522629.072072.561590.321347.961174.312933.1210868.679294.267973.376977.935870.024813.23850.783484.435237.243756.412939.672198.721661.171236.51921.3750.33655.63988.32705.42502.37423.89367.17317.05280.02225.41213.325214.283979.593127.742407.361933.161537.051161.51899.26697.0311371.877127.815639.84412.883585.182818.422336.341902.721617.522412.021864.451488.81197.43998.25865.23748.12632.97536.014526.373435.932759.032208.61777.631291.541000.12814.61738.45378.28309.91270.34231.14181.39162.36133.96106.5883.266246.94614.423415.022480.691882.181508.891200.68915.35773.43 23631712.781304.161022.59870.36733.94619.82526.21460.37 798.23583.24482.84408.54329.81289.18255.62232.35196.351075.91828.85599.8498.75443.25376.2317.99226.98191.082725.452259.971850.841567.051339.061147.15973.39800.09706产投资（不含农户）等于原口径的城镇固定资产投资加上农村企事业组织的项目投资。
中国主要年份固定资产投资概况统计(1990-2012)指标单位1990年2000年2011年2012年全社会固定资产投资额亿元451732917.7311485.1374675.7按登记注册类型分内资亿元30311.5292768.3353861.4 港.澳.台商投资亿元1293943110184.5 外商投资亿元1313.29285.910629.7按资金来源分国家预算资金亿元3932109.514843.319244.4 国内贷款亿元885.56727.346344.550212.1 利用外资亿元284.61696.250624509.4 自筹资金亿元2954.422577.1229346.8278060.6 其他资金亿元50387.557254.3按隶属关系分中央项目亿元6433.821797.221663 地方项目亿元26483.9289687.9353012.7按构成分建筑安装工程亿元3008.720536.3200195.7243456.2 设备工器具购置亿元1165.57785.665152.378139.8 其他费用亿元342.74595.946137.153079.7新增固定资产亿元3995.326842.2192964.4238490.8房屋建筑面积施工面积万平方米13717126329410355191165406 住宅万平方米180634574910614586 竣工面积万平方米107952181974329073334323 住宅万平方米86425134529197452194703房地产开发房地产开发投资额亿元253.34984.161796.971803.8新增固定资产亿元3698.629051.733541.4开发房屋竣工住宅面积万平方米3527206037431979043摘编自《中国统计摘要2013》。
指标名称固定资产投资价格指数:北京固定资产投资价格指数:天津固定资产投资价格指数:河北频率年年年19781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991107.30112.50106.80 1992112.20119.40129.30 1993126.60122.90124.80 1994116.20111.90110.00 1995113.90107.60106.90 1996108.20102.50103.90 1997102.70100.80101.50 1998100.8098.9097.80 199999.9099.2099.40 2000101.0099.90101.10 2001100.6099.7099.90 2002100.4099.5099.50 2003102.20102.60102.30 2004104.30107.30107.00 2005100.70101.20101.90 2006100.40100.70101.70 2007102.80102.60103.80 2008107.80109.20109.60 200997.0697.6296.45 2010102.50102.60103.70 2011105.66105.70105.50 2012101.3099.95100.28 201399.8999.4899.93 201499.98100.50100.20数据来源:Wind资讯1978-2004年是固定资本形成价格指数105.90 107.80107.10108.20 116.80109.30121.00 124.80124.50136.40 108.30106.70117.40 106.80103.90104.90 104.90105.30102.20 101.5099.70102.3098.80101.7099.8099.70101.90100.00 101.80101.90101.10 101.70100.80100.40 100.50101.00100.70 102.90102.60102.50 105.20105.00104.80 103.00103.70102.80 101.50103.30102.10 104.10103.80104.30 113.30108.10109.10 98.1498.5096.95 103.70105.40103.30 105.49106.25106.64 101.19101.60100.96 100.4599.58100.02 99.5999.8299.66111.90107.60107.30 116.40113.50113.00 128.80127.90131.40 107.30109.00108.80 109.60106.50103.10 102.90103.40106.90 104.40102.70100.50 100.80100.8098.40 102.2099.7098.10 102.00101.50100.00 101.10100.10100.70 101.30100.20100.40 101.10102.30102.40 104.40105.00106.90 102.00102.20100.80 102.20102.10100.10 103.90104.50103.50 107.30109.00107.90 99.4497.5597.03 102.40105.20103.80 105.55107.45106.46 100.36100.8199.44 99.97100.14100.16 100.2199.97100.47104.50114.80 112.10119.80 138.80138.80123.00 114.60112.40120.10 107.40107.20106.50 103.20101.30103.40 99.2099.50101.30 98.4097.60100.00 98.3098.2099.30 101.10100.30101.60 100.80100.4099.50 101.70100.50101.30 104.30103.50103.70 109.40105.90106.10 100.90100.30101.00 101.20101.50101.90 104.90104.40105.40 110.00109.30109.40 97.7196.6795.97 105.10104.70105.40 106.82107.49108.13 98.6399.23100.97 100.4599.97100.15 101.09100.58100.31固定资产投资价格指数:福建固定资产投资价格指数:江西固定资产投资价格指数:山东年年年108.60110.40112.40114.90110.10119.40134.10129.80122.10107.30114.60115.80104.80107.20106.60104.70105.80103.10101.10101.40100.4098.00102.1099.2098.5098.6099.60100.20101.40102.4099.5098.90101.40100.00100.00101.30101.40105.10102.90103.40107.40107.40100.70100.50102.90102.00103.20101.80105.90105.40104.00105.90110.40107.7097.9996.1396.89103.30104.80103.60106.17108.36106.84100.30100.98100.84100.07100.42100.39100.36100.12100.27固定资产投资价格指数:河南固定资产投资价格指数:湖北固定资产投资价格指数:湖南年年年101.20104.50105.20108.80109.10119.20105.70106.30107.30 109.40108.30108.10119.80117.00116.40126.70127.40129.50106.00107.90113.50105.90105.00109.50103.90104.00104.90102.90102.10101.8098.70100.50102.7098.0099.50100.50102.90101.70102.30100.40100.10101.3098.7099.80100.60103.80103.30102.80110.10106.00105.50101.40102.20103.60101.60101.80103.10104.60104.10105.80109.00109.40109.9096.4098.8399.71103.50104.70104.00107.37107.31107.24101.00101.78101.6999.90100.48101.3399.95100.95101.54固定资产投资价格指数:广东固定资产投资价格指数:广西固定资产投资价格指数:海南年年年101.70117.90131.20131.20112.30112.30103.40103.40103.60103.60100.30100.3099.9099.9096.1096.10101.40101.80 100.20102.00100.30100.00100.6098.20102.20101.80103.20106.70104.60105.60101.60101.40101.20100.70101.20101.00102.40102.30106.10108.60107.90113.3096.6697.8697.67103.00103.00105.20105.53106.22106.42101.52100.59102.04101.37100.0599.25101.45101.57100.60固定资产投资价格指数:重庆固定资产投资价格指数:四川固定资产投资价格指数:贵州年年年100.0099.80105.20107.50107.80105.30109.90112.30105.30108.10110.60113.90120.20133.20126.90 108.90107.30113.10104.20101.20107.60108.10104.80105.40101.70102.20101.4098.7097.50100.00100.50100.5099.40102.50100.90102.20100.80101.50100.40100.70100.50100.20102.90102.20102.30105.10106.80104.90102.30103.90101.40101.70102.90101.10105.50104.70103.50110.20112.50108.9097.7698.33100.53102.10102.50102.70105.91105.16105.41101.75101.03101.48100.52100.38100.94100.32100.54101.06固定资产投资价格指数:云南固定资产投资价格指数:陕西固定资产投资价格指数:甘肃年年年106.80105.60112.10112.90116.50117.60119.10117.40135.40129.50126.20113.60111.70112.60104.00107.90109.40104.30107.80104.90105.40105.30102.70101.80101.80100.30100.70101.20101.00101.60103.60103.30101.00103.60102.00100.00107.00100.20102.20101.70101.70108.00104.50105.50104.60103.70102.20101.80102.60104.10104.20104.00102.80107.40109.50106.7098.1099.28101.46102.70103.60103.50104.64105.94104.70101.38102.60102.05101.05102.01100.36100.95101.08100.13固定资产投资价格指数:青海固定资产投资价格指数:宁夏固定资产投资价格指数:新疆年年年119.50110.40114.80115.10117.30117.00125.90123.00126.50108.40112.60112.30105.30109.30106.20103.50107.40105.60103.00102.20103.2098.50102.10102.00100.1099.7099.00101.60104.50103.60100.30101.20102.50103.50100.70100.20103.00102.30103.40102.90104.90104.50101.80102.10102.80102.40101.30102.20104.20103.20104.40110.50109.00111.20100.91100.2398.00103.80104.20104.60106.51107.51107.07102.22101.52100.56101.5499.80100.48100.94100.78100.28。
