工信部许志远：苹果若按现有周期出新品创新或受挫

放弃x86，全面拥抱ARM苹果的下一个时代作者：***来源：《微型计算机》2020年第21期在2006年前，苹果曾经将旗下个人电脑等设备所使用的计算架构从Power转向至x86，这次改变使得苹果的产品在性能方面追赶上了市场上的主流产品，并拥有了更广阔的发展空间。

斗转星移，14年后，苹果在WWDC 2020上宣布旗下Mac产品线将会在两年内转移至ARM架构的Apple Silicon——Apple Silicon是苹果对自家ARM架构芯片系统和封装体系的总称。

那么，苹果为什么会再—次转换“跑道”，它又将如何完成这一过程？CCX模块采用全新设计2020年WWDC最大的新闻莫过于苹果宣布要将整个Mac产品架构从x86转移至ARM。

虽然在这个消息正式公布之前，苹果曾经在多个场合表示对现有产品架构的异议，并且大量小道消息也显示苹果正在积极谋划新的产品线，尤其是在苹果iOS生态系统和相关A系列SoC 大获成功之后。

但是只要靴子没有落地，人们的议论和猜测就一天不会停止。

现在，消息已经明朗。

苹果宣布大概需要两年时间来完成这次架构迁移过程。

但是，就像苹果之前发布的大量公告信息那样，它所提供的消息有限，只有部分比较笼统的消息，这些消息吊起了开发人员和消费者的胃口，同时缺乏真正的细节。

因此，本文的内容在很大程度上也基于现有的消息和情况，更多的内容可能要等到苹果在2020年下半年真的推出了基于ARM 的Mac产品之后才会进一步明确。

从市场角度来看，苹果公司的下一个目标是垂直整合整个Mac产品线。

从性能指标和用户体验来看，苹果目前在iOS生态上成功的最核心原因之一就是垂直整合。

苹果的想法就是，既然在iOS上能够取得成功，那么在Mac设备上也可以如法炮制。

垂直整合的优势在于，即使从用户界面看起来操作系统没有什么大的变化，但是苹果将底层硬件架构和SoC有机融合后能够使得操作系统更为充分地调用soc的所有设计和特殊功能，比如电源控制、ISP、视频编解码、神经网络引擎等，这些都将是被重点关注的内容。

苹果的另一面给我们的启示摘要:苹果采用的是高度聚焦的产品战略、严格的过程控制、突破式的创新和持续的市场营销。

苹果远离那些用低端产品满足市场份额的要求，也不向公司不能占据领导地位的临近市场扩张。

苹果公司以其时尚设计和创新技术，推出了iPad、iPhone 等一系列IT产品，引发市场销售的阵阵狂潮。

然而，在时尚靓丽的外表后面，苹果的产品却有着不为人知的另外一面：污染、侵犯和毒害。

苹果的承诺不等于苹果的表现。

关键词：商业链；子公司；重金属超标；环境苹果是一家市值位居全球IT行业之首的巨无霸企业，每一款新产品上市都会引发全球粉丝彻夜排队等候；它的产品成为全球潮流，旗舰店甚至与奢侈品商店毗邻，这也是一家承诺确保供应链有安全的工作条件，确保工人受到尊重并享有尊严，同时确保生产过程对环境负责的企业。

每年，它都会发布一份《供应商社会责任进展报告》，然而，随着这份名为《苹果的另一面》的调研报告的发布，在中国，美国苹果公司被推到了风口浪尖。

由公众环境研究中心牵头的五家环保组织公布了一份美国苹果公司在中国供应链的污染地图，这是中国环保组织针对苹果公司所做的第二季调查报告，加上今年一月初第一季报告公布的污染问题，共有27家工厂在环境污染和劳工保护问题上黑榜有名，这些企业散布在中国的各个地区。

调查报告指出在供应链的职业安全环境保护劳工权益等方面，苹果公司都违反了自己的承诺，环保组织将苹果公司的产品称作为“毒苹果”。

其中苹果的在华供应商如深圳富士康科技集团、名幸电子有限公司、联建科技、运恒五金、东莞万士达、富港电子、南玻集团等。

名幸电子(武汉)有限公司在环保组织的污染调查报告中榜上有名，环保组织在《苹果的另一面》中指出由于这家工厂的超标排污，工厂旁边的南太子湖受到严重污染。

从公开资料中我们得知名幸电子武汉公司是一家制造高密度印刷电路板的企业，苹果、索尼、佳能等许多知名品牌的电子产品用的都是它生产的元器件，由于印刷电路板要大量使用电镀工艺。

苹果手机的市场命门IPHONE 5终于面市了。

这两天大家对于它品头论足的时候，重点说的是它在技术上并没有太重大的革新，而主要是在薄轻长的外形表现上的特征。

有些微博桥段还把它与杜蕾丝产品做了比较，似乎多少是嘲讽它似乎并没有达到一代机的要求，最多也就算IPHONE4L的程度。

对于我来说，再次回到我在去年年初对于IPHONE的分析，就是乔布斯后的IPHONE如果没有革命性的前进，IPHONE5问世的时候，苹果手机将有可能被三星在市场意义上超越。

我原来预计的这个时间点大致说的是到明年即2013年上半年。

在IPHONE5出来之后，我的这个分析应该说更加确定了。

有果粉现在为IPHONE5辩护的时候说，其实并不需要每款手机完全需要颠覆性与革命性的技术进步，只要是市场欢迎的适用技术就可以了。

我对这个观点不持异议，但是我得到的结论恰恰是苹果手机沿用的产品市场策略严重滞后了。

到IPHONE5为止，我们基本上可以得到的结论是，苹果手机与三星手机的技术差距似乎基本拉平了，因此市场转换的关键比拼就到了市场策略上，而苹果手机会在以下三个方面全面受到三星挑战：一是细分市场对应策略，到IPHONE5为止，苹果手机沿用的是one fits all 的策略，这个策略的有效期到IPHONE4S的时候就到了极限，目前的市场上已经到了一个公司里面，老板、高管、中管、一般办事员人手一个苹果手机的消费共和时代已经过去，而分别推出适用于高中平不同层次市场的机型才是更有效的市场渗透策略，而实施这一策略的是三星而不是苹果；二是界面友好策略，苹果固执地实行独立接口与外设的策略，甚至在IPHONE4、IPHONE4S、IPHONE5之间的外设通用都可能存在问题，比如IPHONE5的充电接口就比IPHONE4S的更小，你需要另外专门去买一个与新型配套的充电线，这样的做法在产品本身已经不是大牛产品的时候，将是对于原来客户的纵向升级的大敌，这恰恰对于三星来说不是一个问题；三是市场优先覆盖模式，看来在苹果手机的布局中，虽然包括中国市场在内的新兴市场的地位有所拉升，但还是排在美欧之后的，这种市场判断对于一个美国上市公司来说无可厚非，但是就市场价值判断而论则是有所滞后的，在一个不那么技术凌厉的产品上，我个人预期大约美国市场的反应热度很难与前面的新型比拼，而在新兴市场上将显著落后于显然更给予优先关注度的三星。

内部资料严禁翻印测量系统分析参考手册第三版1990年2月第一版1995年2月第一版；1998年6月第二次印刷2002年3月第三版©1990©1995©2002版权由戴姆勒克莱斯勒、福特和通用汽车公司所有测量系统分析参考手册第三版1990年2月第一版1995年2月第一版；1998年6月第二次印刷2002年3月第三版©1990©1995©2002版权由戴姆勒克莱斯勒、福特和通用汽车公司所有本参考手册是在美国质量协会（ASQ）及汽车工业行动集团（AIAG）主持下，由戴姆勒克莱斯勒、福特和通用汽车公司供方质量要求特别工作组认可的测量系统分析（MSA）工作组编写，负责第三版的工作组成员是David Benham（戴姆勒克莱斯勒）、Michael Down （通用）、Peter Cvetkovski（福特），以及Gregory Gruska（第三代公司）、Tripp Martin（FM 公司）、以及Steve Stahley（SRS技术服务）。

过去，克莱斯勒、福特和通用汽车公司各有其用于保证供方产品一致性的指南和格式。

这些指南的差异导致了对供方资源的额外要求。

为了改善这种状况，特别工作组被特许将克莱斯勒、福特和通用汽车公司所使用的参考手册、程序、报告格式有及技术术语进行标准化处理。

因此，克莱斯勒、福特和通用汽车公司同意在1990年编写并以通过AIAG分发MSA手册。

第一版发行后，供方反应良好，并根据实际应用经验，提出了一些修改建议，这些建议都已纳入第二版和第三版。

由克莱斯勒、福特和通用汽车公司批准并承认的本手册是QS-9000的补充参考文件。

本手册对测量系统分析进行了介绍，它并不限制与特殊生产过程或特殊商品相适应的分析方法的发展。

尽管这些指南非覆盖测量系统通常出现的情况，但可能还有一些问题没有考虑到。

这些问题应直接向顾客的供方质量质量保证（SQA）部门提出。

行业分析Industry Analysis事件背景从2011年4月开始，苹果公司在美国起诉三星侵犯了其知识产权，由此引发两公司之间的诉讼战迅速扩展到全球范围，双方先后在美国、韩国、日本、德国、荷兰、澳大利亚等国家发起了一系列诉讼案。

苹果起诉三星侵权的专利集中在苹果擅长的领域，其中，触摸面板相关专利为4件，GUI等操作界面相关专利为4件(附表1)。

三星起诉苹果侵权的专利共有12件，均为发明专利(附表2)。

2012年8月24日，韩国首尔中央地方法院做出判决，认定苹果侵犯三星提出的5项专利中的2项、三星侵犯苹果提出的10项专利中的1项。

8月25日，美国加利福尼亚州北部地区联邦法院陪审团判定三星侵犯苹果6件专利权(附表3)，赔偿苹果10.5亿美元，并驳回三星的所有诉讼主张。

苹果与三星的专利诉讼，不仅是占据全球手机行业利润95%的两大巨头之间的市场利益争夺，更是苹果的iOS系统和谷歌的Android系统两大阵营的直接交锋，预示未来两大生态体系的竞争进一步白热化，对产业的影响广泛深远。

诉讼案的影响深刻1. 对Android阵营的影响相比三星在美国的败诉，其实更值得关心的是这次专利诉讼究竟会对未来Android平台的发展走势和格局产生怎样的影响。

对于美国法院做出的判决，谷歌公司发布声明撇清关系，称“法院将审查侵权和专利要求的有效性，这些基本上不涉及Android的核心操作系统，只有几个在接受美国专利局的重新审查。

”言下之意，此次苹果诉三星的重点是软件应用和外观设计上的抄袭，与Android无关。

然而，Android阵营的龙头三星遭遇此次打击，向来是Android短板的高端市场形势将更加严峻和惨淡。

9月，iPhone 5面世，苹果继续巩固市场优势；随后，诺基亚的Windows Phone 8手机发售，开始抢占市场；Android阵营不得不面对群龙无首的尴尬境地。

所以，在iPhone 5和Windows Phone 8的夹击下，短期内恐怕无法拿出应对措施的Android平台必然将面临市场份额下滑、市场影响力下降以及用户流失的问题，而最后引起的连锁反应或许将影响到市场和广大厂商对Android平台乃至Google的信心。

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该产品对婴儿构成窒息危害。

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CPSC2024年1~2月召回中国产品危害小结新闻公告：24-101召回时间：2024-02-01召回数量：250危害简介：儿童睡衣不符合美国儿童睡衣阻燃规定，对儿童构成烧伤风险。

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产品名称：双层折叠凳产品名称：便携式无缸热水器产品名称：儿童睡衣产品名称：玩耍床垫产品名称：儿童睡衣产品名称：枪支保险箱产品名称：儿童睡衣产品名称：玩耍床垫产品名称：儿童睡衣产品名称：儿童连帽法兰绒浴袍新闻公告：24-128召回时间：2024-02-22召回数量：2.200危害简介：枪支保险箱的生物识别锁会被未经授权者打开，构成严重受伤和死亡风险。

所有安卓设备厂商发布会上，又多了一条可以用来宣传打败苹果手机的爆点了）其实从交互的角度来看，这也的的确确就是一个错误，并且在交互设计时特别容易被忽视。

即及时反馈的效果，在通常的场景下是成立的，而在某个特殊的场景下，这个反馈便失效了。

场景图如下：iPhone计算器反馈与用户场景关系序号用户场景反馈效果1计算结果与最后一次输入数值不同最后一次输入数值刷新显示为计算结果2计算结果与最后一次输入数值不同无变化这样的反馈失灵，很多时候是惯性思维导致。

即使再优秀的产品经理也可能会出现，再举个栗子：MIUI(不要问我为什么又是小米，你也可以送拉面君一台iPhone 6P)是业内认为比较人性化的ROM了，但里面也有类似的反馈失灵问题。

MIUI里有项比较人性化的功能，即在接耳机的模式下，将音量从10档调到11档前(共15档)，界面会先提醒用户”将音量调节到推荐级别以上？长时间聆听高音量可能会损伤听力”，即提醒用户目前为带耳机的最佳音量范围，用户需要点击确认后才能继续提高到11档及以后的音量。

这个功能说到这里，是个极好的人性化的及时反馈；美中不足的是，如果用户是在锁屏的情况下提高音量，此时在10档无论连续按几次音量+键，都不会增加到11档或以后，MIUI此时默认的以为已经对用户进行了提示。

MIUI音量增大时反馈与用户场景关系序号用户场景反馈效果1屏幕亮屏状态下继续加大音量可能损伤听力提示2锁屏状态下（通常公交车上听歌）无反馈可见，在设计及时反馈时，遍历用户场景并思考该反馈是否在所有场景下均有效，这对于交互产品经理而言，虽然繁琐，却是非常重要并且不可忽视的一项作业，必要时可能还要多问问多个“用户”的意见，以避免思维惯性导致的遗漏。

这里也留个包袱供有兴趣的人探讨下，微信的消息“撤回”功能，里面有没有“反馈失灵”的地方？本文为作者匿名投稿发布，转载请注明来源于人人都是产品经理并附带本文链接人人都是产品经理（）中国最大最活跃的产品经理学习、交流、分享平台。

深度召回是保障消费者不受产品缺陷伤害的最后一道防线，体现出消费者参与、舆论监督、行业自律的质量共治理念。

我国召回制度实施十六年来，制度体系逐步健全，工作体系不断完善，召回数量稳步增加，全社会的召回意识都在不断加强。

回顾 2020年，有哪些典型召回事件？我们一起回顾。

2020年b r e a k i n g news国内产品召国内产品召回大事件回大事件【点评】 日本电装公司成立于1949年，是世界大型汽车零部件供应商。

由高田气囊召回事件可知，一旦零部件巨头的产品出现缺陷，受影响的汽车生产者往往不止一家。

为此，在相关召回案例发生后，市场监管总局通过进一步调查，确认到更多车辆可能由于搭载了不合格的燃油泵，存在导致车辆无法正常供油等的安全隐患，促使多家汽车生产者先后实施了扩大召回。

【点评】2020年，奔驰共召回34次，涉及汽车超过80万辆，为2020年召回次数最多的汽车品牌。

频繁召回，一方面说明车企能够承担产品责任，为消费者负责，另一方面也暴露出企业在质量管理上可能存在漏洞。

召回的目的在于消除产品缺陷，促进企业生产设计、质量的提升，否则召回再多也是治标不治本。

沃尔沃主动安全系统受限【事件回顾】2020年3月，因主动安全系统受限，浙江豪情汽车制造有限公司、大庆沃尔沃【点评】自动驾驶是继新能源汽车后又一全球化发展趋势，近年来，随着国内汽车智能化水平的提高，相关的安全问题也逐渐显现。

沃尔沃一直以“安全”著称，此次召回既是企业自身的反思，也给行业以警示——随着汽车电子与信息通讯技术的深度融合，汽车在迎来数字化转型升级机遇的同时，也将更多的安全风险引入其中。

如何规避可能出现的软硬件漏洞？值得业内深入思考和应对。

【点评】这本是一起普通的召回活动，但特斯拉随后的一番言论耐人寻味，明确表示车辆没有质量问题，悬架不存在缺陷，而是车主使用不当所造成的，特斯拉这种敷衍、傲慢、随意“甩锅”的行为引发“众怒”。

不止于此，2020年，特斯拉汽车异常加速、起火、远程升级等质量安全问题不断，却始终未给消费者一个合理的交代。

第四章管理决策练习题一,单选题1、决策的本质是一个（A ）A、过程B、分析阶段C、择优过程口、心理分析阶段2、当代决策应遵循（B ）原则A、极优B、满意C、极佳D、最优3、决策的依据是（C ）A、经验B、逻辑C、信息D、学识4、投资方向的选择属与（A ）决策A、战略B、业务C、程序D、战术5、环境的多变性要求决策的（B ）性A、可行B、动态C、过程D、目标6、古典决策理论对人的假设是（C ）人4自我实现B、管理C、经济D、社会7、威廉大内将决策视为（D ）现象A、经济B、社会匚心理D、文化8、当代决策理论认为人人都是（A ）者A、决策B、管理C、指挥D、协调9、（B ）决策法鼓励决策构思越新越奇越好A、德尔菲B、头脑风暴C、个人D、群体二多选题1、决策的表述中正确的有（ABCDE ）A、主体是决策者8、其本质是个过程匚目的是解决问题D、决策主体可以是单个管理者也可以是决策小组E、目的也包括利用机会2、古典决策理论的主要内容有（ABCD ）A、决策者须全面掌握信息B、决策者须充分了解备选方案C、决策者应建立合理的执行体系D、目的始终在于使组织获利最大化E、只求满意结果3、行为决策理论的主要内容有（ABCD ）A、人是有限理性的B、决策易受知觉偏差影响C、选择理性的相对性D、只求满意结果，而且在风险型决策中对待风险的态度起重要影响E、目的始终在于使组织获利最大化4、决策过程包括（ABCDE ）A、识别机会或诊断问题B、识别目标与拟定备选方案C、评估方案D、作出决定与选择实施战略E、监督和评估5、决策的影响因素包括（ABCDE ）A、环境B、以往决策C、对风险的态度D、伦理E、组织文化与时间6、集体决策方法有（ABC ）A、头脑风暴法B、名义小组法C、德尔菲法D、线性规划法E、量本利法7、有关活动方向的决策方法有（AB ）A、波士顿矩阵法B、政策指导矩阵法C、线性规划法D、量本利法E、最大最小值法8、非确定型决策方法有（ABC ）A、大中取小法B、小中取大法C、最小最大后悔值法D、量本利分析法E、线性规划法9、依据波士顿矩阵分析法，企业经营单位的产品类型有（ABCD ）A、明星B、现金牛C、问题或幼童D、瘦狗£、童心10、头脑风暴法的组织原则是（ABCD ）A、对他人建议的不评价原则B、建议多多益善原则C、独立创新原则D、补充完善原则E、评头品足原则三■填空国1、决策的主体是（管理者2、决策的依据是（当代决策遵循的是（满意）原则。

Communicatio ns World Weekly21亿台A B I R e sear ch 预测，到2016年，装有H TM L5浏览器的终端将从2010年的1.09亿台增长到21亿台以上。

H T M L 5打破智能手机操作系统“围墙”标准进展缓慢成不确定因素中国电信广州研究院|李俭伟H TML 5具备图像增强、Web 数据存储和离线数据存储等功能，完整支持H T ML 5的浏览器因而有了更强的本地数据处理能力，可以部分代替操作系统。

>>HT ML 5具有跨平台的特点，开发者可以在一定程度上摆脱现有操作系统主导者构建的“围墙”。

目前，智能终端已成为用户使用移动互联网业务的重要入口，而操作系统则扮演了主导智能终端发展的核心角色，并对现阶段整个移动互联网的生态链和发展格局产生了关键影响。

为了打破操作系统的封闭效应，基于浏览器的HTML5等标准快速崛起，浏览器也随之日益成为移动互联网后续发展中的新热点。

操作系统形成封闭效应操作系统是连接硬件和应用/内容之间的环节，在目前大量应用程序依靠操作系统自带的运行库来调用硬件能力的情况下，操作系统在智能终端发展中扮演了核心角色。

为了吸引上下游资源的加入，操作系统主导者需要具备相当的产业链游戏规则设计、开发和运营的能力。

正因为操作系统已经成为影响智能终端发展的核心能力，一个企业要想在智能终端乃至移动互联网领域获取竞争力和主导地位，就必须首先在操作系统上有所作为，否则就会丧失对产业链的主导权。

事实上，在现阶段的移动互联网发展中，对操作系统的掌控能力直接决定了相关竞争者的发展地位。

目前，智能终端的操作系统主要由谷歌、苹果两家企业主导，微软也在发力追赶，这三家企业实际上成为了目前在移动互联网领域内的暂时领先者和主导者。

而在智能操作系统领域缺乏话语权和影响力的企业，无一例外在发展上陷入了逆境，、诺基亚、摩托罗拉、黑莓皆是如此。

HTML5冲击原有生态链从最终用户看，苹果、谷歌、微软分别掌控生态链所导致的最明显影响就是应用的封闭化，一个热门的应用要分为iOS 版、Andriod 版和Wind ows 版，而即使Andriod 版本的应用在某些An driod 衍生操作系统上也可能产生兼容性问题，这种状况不仅跟互联网的开放理念相背离，也对应用开发商造成了现实的困扰。

C ommun icatio ns World Weekly2011（第五届）移动互联网国际研讨会TD-LTE终端产业获规模推进单模终端、芯片基本成熟中国移动TD-LT E规模试验一阶段测试结果显示，TD-L TE单模终端在功能、性能、外形设计等方面较技术试验阶段有所改进，已经基本成熟。

本刊记者|陈琛相比其它方案，中国移动尤其重视T D-L T E多模双待单卡智能手机的发展。

本届研讨会智能终端分论坛上，来自中国移动、工信部电信研究院、中兴通讯、华为、谷歌、微软、诺基亚、大唐电信、腾讯等的主流厂商代表集聚一堂，分别就智能终端发展现状与趋势，以及各自的特色终端实践等话题进行了交流与探讨。

目前，苹果、谷歌等先行者已以操作系统为利器，推动移动互联网以及智能终端进入规模发展阶段。

在这一阶段，传统ICT产业格局已经重构：ICT知识产权将呈现愈加聚集的趋势，各个业务应用也以操作系统为平台实现聚合，此外，随着K ik、V oIP等应用的盛行，语音、短信等传统通信业务的价值正在降低，并可能逐步被各种移动互联网应用所取代。

面对上述产业趋势，我国智能终端产业相关方已以操作系统、网络演进等为抓手，进行了重点布局与实践。

其中，操作系统方面，虽然我国已经或计划推出自有操作系统的企业超过十家，但是目前仍已小型生态系统为主，并未形成核心竞争力；而在网络演进方面，经过各方努力，TD LT芯片终端产业实现了快速稳步发展，目前单模芯片及终端已基本成熟，未来中国移动还将联合各方推出多形态终端产品，为移动互联网产业发展注入更强动力。

SNS、应用商店已成互联网核心作为直接与用户实现对接的媒介，智能终端是移动互联网发展的焦点。

事实上，移动互联产业也正是以苹果为代表的智能终端厂商真正开启的，其通过革命性的终端与应用商店拉开了移动互联时代的序幕。

在上述产业背景下，传统ICT产业的各个层次都在发生着重大变革。

“目前，信息产业正在发生前所未有的变革，涉及上层业务平台、核心业务平台、浏览器、操作系统、硬件平台、外围硬件等各个层面，其中智能终端操作系统是核心。

< your body language shapes who you are > So I want to start by offering you a free no-tech life hack, and all it requires of you is this: that you change your posture for two minutes. But before I give it away, I want to ask you to right now do a little audit of your body and what you're doing with your body. So how many of you are sort of making yourselves smaller? Maybe you're hunching, crossing your legs, maybe wrapping your ankles. Sometimes we hold onto our arms like this. Sometimes we spread out. (Laughter) I see you. (Laughter) So I want you to pay attention to what you're doing right now. We're going to come back to that in a few minutes, and I'm hoping that if you learn to tweak this a little bit, it could significantly change the way your life unfolds.0:58So, we're really fascinated with body language, and we're particularly interested in other people's body language. You know, we're interested in, like, you know —(Laughter) —an awkward interaction, or a smile, or a contemptuous glance, or maybe a very awkward wink, or maybe even something like a handshake.1:22Narrator: Here they are arriving at Number 10, and look at this lucky policeman gets to shake hands with the President of the United States. Oh, and here comes the Prime Minister of the —? No. (Laughter) (Applause) (Laughter) (Applause)1:37Amy Cuddy: So a handshake, or the lack of a handshake, can have us talking for weeks and weeks and weeks. Even the BBC and The New York Times. So obviously when we think about nonverbal behavior, or body language -- but we call it nonverbals as social scientists -- it's language, so we think about communication. When we think about communication, we think about interactions. So what is your body language communicating to me? What's mine communicating to you?2:04And there's a lot of reason to believe that this is a valid way to look at this. So social scientists have spent a lot of time looking at the effects of our body language, or other people's body language, on judgments. And we make sweeping judgments and inferences from body language. And those judgments can predict really meaningful life outcomes like who we hire or promote, who we ask out on a date. For example, Nalini Ambady, a researcher at Tufts University, shows that when people watch 30-second soundless clips of real physician-patient interactions, their judgments of the physician's niceness predict whether or not that physician will be sued. So it doesn't have to do so much with whether or not that physician was incompetent, but do we like that person and how they interacted? Even more dramatic, Alex Todorov at Princeton has shown us that judgments of political candidates' faces in just one second predict 70 percent of U.S. Senate and gubernatorial race outcomes, and even, let's go digital, emoticons used well in online negotiations can lead to you claim more value from that negotiation. If you use them poorly, bad idea. Right? So when we think of nonverbals, we think of how we judge others, how they judge us and what theoutcomes are. We tend to forget, though, the other audience that's influenced by our nonverbals, and that's ourselves.3:31We are also influenced by our nonverbals, our thoughts and our feelings and our physiology. So what nonverbals am I talking about? I'm a social psychologist. I study prejudice, and I teach at a competitive business school, so it was inevitable that I would become interested in power dynamics. I became especially interested in nonverbal expressions of power and dominance.3:56And what are nonverbal expressions of power and dominance? Well, this is what they are. So in the animal kingdom, they are about expanding. So you make yourself big, you stretch out, you take up space, you're basically opening up. It's about opening up. And this is true across the animal kingdom. It's not just limited to primates. And humans do the same thing. (Laughter) So they do this both when they have power sort of chronically, and also when they're feeling powerful in the moment. And this one is especially interesting because it really shows us how universal and old these expressions of power are. This expression, which is known as pride, Jessica Tracy has studied. She shows that people who are born with sight and people who are congenitally blind do this when they win at a physical competition. So when they cross the finish line and they've won, it doesn't matter if they've never seen anyone do it. They do this. So the arms up in the V, the chin is slightly lifted. What do we do when we feel powerless? We do exactly the opposite. We close up. We wrap ourselves up. We make ourselves small. We don't want to bump into the person next to us. So again, both animals and humans do the same thing. And this is what happens when you put together high and low power. So what we tend to do when it comes to power is that we complement the other's nonverbals. So if someone is being really powerful with us, we tend to make ourselves smaller. We don't mirror them. We do the opposite of them.5:24So I'm watching this behavior in the classroom, and what do I notice? I notice that MBA students really exhibit the full range of power nonverbals. So you have people who are like caricatures of alphas, really coming into the room, they get right into the middle of the room before class even starts, like they really want to occupy space. When they sit down, they're sort of spread out. They raise their hands like this. You have other people who are virtually collapsing when they come in. As soon they come in, you see it. You see it on their faces and their bodies, and they sit in their chair and they make themselves tiny, and they go like this when they raise their hand. I notice a couple of things about this. One, you're not going to be surprised. It seems to be related to gender. So women are much more likely to do this kind of thing than men. Women feel chronically less powerful than men, so this is not surprising. But the other thing I noticed is that it also seemed to be related to the extent to which the students were participating, and how well they were participating. And this is really important in the MBA classroom, because participation counts for half the grade.6:33So business schools have been struggling with this gender grade gap. You get these equally qualified women and men coming in and then you get these differences in grades, and it seems to be partly attributable to participation. So I started to wonder, you know, okay, so you have these people coming in like this, and they're participating. Is it possible that we could get people to fake it and would it lead them to participate more?6:57So my main collaborator Dana Carney, who's at Berkeley, and I really wanted to know, can you fake it till you make it? Like, can you do this just for a little while and actually experience a behavioral outcome that makes you seem more powerful? So we know that our nonverbals govern how other people think and feel about us. There's a lot of evidence. But our question really was, do our nonverbals govern how we think and feel about ourselves?7:24There's some evidence that they do. So, for example, we smile when we feel happy, but also, when we're forced to smile by holding a pen in our teeth like this, it makes us feel happy. So it goes both ways. When it comes to power, it also goes both ways. So when you feel powerful, you're more likely to do this, but it's also possible that when you pretend to be powerful, you are more likely to actually feel powerful.7:57So the second question really was, you know, so we know that our minds change our bodies, but is it also true that our bodies change our minds? And when I say minds, in the case of the powerful, what am I talking about? So I'm talking about thoughts and feelings and the sort of physiological things that make up our thoughts and feelings, and in my case, that's hormones. I look at hormones. So what do the minds of the powerful versus the powerless look like? So powerful people tend to be, not surprisingly, more assertive and more confident, more optimistic. They actually feel that they're going to win even at games of chance. They also tend to be able to think more abstractly. So there are a lot of differences. They take more risks. There are a lot of differences between powerful and powerless people. Physiologically, there also are differences on two key hormones: testosterone, which is the dominance hormone, and cortisol, which is the stress hormone. So what we find is that high-power alpha males in primate hierarchies have high testosterone and low cortisol, and powerful and effective leaders also have high testosterone and low cortisol. So what does that mean? When you think about power, people tended to think only about testosterone, because that was about dominance. But really, power is also about how you react to stress. So do you want the high-power leader that's dominant, high on testosterone, but really stress reactive? Probably not, right? You want the person who's powerful and assertive and dominant, but not very stress reactive, the person who's laid back.9:37So we know that in primate hierarchies, if an alpha needs to take over, if an individual needs to take over an alpha role sort of suddenly, within a few days, that individual's testosterone has gone up significantly and his cortisol has dropped significantly. So we have this evidence, both that the body can shape the mind, at least at the faciallevel, and also that role changes can shape the mind. So what happens, okay, you take a role change, what happens if you do that at a really minimal level, like this tiny manipulation, this tiny intervention? "For two minutes," you say, "I want you to stand like this, and it's going to make you feel more powerful."10:19So this is what we did. We decided to bring people into the lab and run a little experiment, and these people adopted, for two minutes, either high-power poses or low-power poses, and I'm just going to show you five of the poses, although they took on only two. So here's one. A couple more. This one has been dubbed the "Wonder Woman" by the media. Here are a couple more. So you can be standing or you can be sitting. And here are the low-power poses. So you're folding up, you're making yourself small. This one is very low-power. When you're touching your neck, you're really protecting yourself. So this is what happens. They come in, they spit into a vial, we for two minutes say, "You need to do this or this." They don't look at pictures of the poses. We don't want to prime them with a concept of power. We want them to be feeling power, right? So two minutes they do this. We then ask them, "How powerful do you feel?" on a series of items, and then we give them an opportunity to gamble, and then we take another saliva sample. That's it. That's the whole experiment.11:28So this is what we find. Risk tolerance, which is the gambling, what we find is that when you're in the high-power pose condition, 86 percent of you will gamble. When you're in the low-power pose condition, only 60 percent, and that's a pretty whopping significant difference. Here's what we find on testosterone. From their baseline when they come in, high-power people experience about a 20-percent increase, and low-power people experience about a 10-percent decrease. So again, two minutes, and you get these changes. Here's what you get on cortisol. High-power people experience about a 25-percent decrease, and the low-power people experience about a 15-percent increase. So two minutes lead to these hormonal changes that configure your brain to basically be either assertive, confident and comfortable, or really stress-reactive, and, you know, feeling sort of shut down. And we've all had the feeling, right? So it seems that our nonverbals do govern how we think and feel about ourselves, so it's not just others, but it's also ourselves. Also, our bodies change our minds.12:36But the next question, of course, is can power posing for a few minutes really change your life in meaningful ways? So this is in the lab. It's this little task, you know, it's just a couple of minutes. Where can you actually apply this? Which we cared about, of course. And so we think it's really, what matters, I mean, where you want to use this is evaluative situations like social threat situations. Where are you being evaluated, either by your friends? Like for teenagers it's at the lunchroom table. It could be, you know, for some people it's speaking at a school board meeting. It might be giving a pitch or giving a talk like this or doing a job interview. We decided that the one that most people could relate to because most people had been through was the job interview.13:20So we published these findings, and the media are all over it, and they say, Okay, so this is what you do when you go in for the job interview, right? (Laughter) You know, so we were of course horrified, and said, Oh my God, no, no, no, that's not what we meant at all. For numerous reasons, no, no, no, don't do that. Again, this is not about you talking to other people. It's you talking to yourself. What do you do before you go into a job interview? You do this. Right? You're sitting down. You're looking at your iPhone -- or your Android, not trying to leave anyone out. You are, you know, you're looking at your notes, you're hunching up, making yourself small, when really what you should be doing maybe is this, like, in the bathroom, right? Do that. Find two minutes. So that's what we want to test. Okay? So we bring people into a lab, and they do either high- or low-power poses again, they go through a very stressful job interview. It's five minutes long. They are being recorded. They're being judged also, and the judges are trained to give no nonverbal feedback, so they look like this. Like, imagine this is the person interviewing you. So for five minutes, nothing, and this is worse than being heckled. People hate this. It's what Marianne LaFrance calls "standing in social quicksand." So this really spikes your cortisol. So this is the job interview we put them through, because we really wanted to see what happened. We then have these coders look at these tapes, four of them. They're blind to the hypothesis. They're blind to the conditions. They have no idea who's been posing in what pose, and they end up looking at these sets of tapes, and they say, "Oh, we want to hire these people," -- all the high-power posers -- "we don't want to hire these people. We also evaluate these people much more positively overall." But what's driving it? It's not about the content of the speech. It's about the presence that they're bringing to the speech. We also, because we rate them on all these variables related to competence, like, how well-structured is the speech? How good is it? What are their qualifications? No effect on those things. This is what's affected. These kinds of things. People are bringing their true selves, basically. They're bringing themselves. They bring their ideas, but as themselves, with no, you know, residue over them. So this is what's driving the effect, or mediating the effect.15:35So when I tell people about this, that our bodies change our minds and our minds can change our behavior, and our behavior can change our outcomes, they say to me, "I don't -- It feels fake." Right? So I said, fake it till you make it. I don't -- It's not me. I don't want to get there and then still feel like a fraud. I don't want to feel like an impostor. I don't want to get there only to feel like I'm not supposed to be here. And that really resonated with me, because I want to tell you a little story about being an impostor and feeling like I'm not supposed to be here.16:06When I was 19, I was in a really bad car accident. I was thrown out of a car, rolled several times. I was thrown from the car. And I woke up in a head injury rehab ward, and I had been withdrawn from college, and I learned that my I.Q. had dropped by two standard deviations, which was very traumatic. I knew my I.Q. because I had identified with being smart, and I had been called gifted as a child. So I'm taken out of college, I keep trying to go back. They say, "You're not going to finish college. Just,you know, there are other things for you to do, but that's not going to work out for you." So I really struggled with this, and I have to say, having your identity taken from you, your core identity, and for me it was being smart, having that taken from you, there's nothing that leaves you feeling more powerless than that. So I felt entirely powerless. I worked and worked and worked, and I got lucky, and worked, and got lucky, and worked.17:01Eventually I graduated from college. It took me four years longer than my peers, and I convinced someone, my angel advisor, Susan Fiske, to take me on, and so I ended up at Princeton, and I was like, I am not supposed to be here. I am an impostor. And the night before my first-year talk, and the first-year talk at Princeton is a 20-minute talk to 20 people. That's it. I was so afraid of being found out the next day that I called her and said, "I'm quitting." She was like, "You are not quitting, because I took a gamble on you, and you're staying. You're going to stay, and this is what you're going to do. You are going to fake it. You're going to do every talk that you ever get asked to do. You're just going to do it and do it and do it, even if you're terrified and just paralyzed and having an out-of-body experience, until you have this moment where you say, 'Oh my gosh, I'm doing it. Like, I have become this. I am actually doing this.'" So that's what I did. Five years in grad school, a few years, you know, I'm at Northwestern, I moved to Harvard, I'm at Harvard, I'm not really thinking about it anymore, but for a long time I had been thinking, "Not supposed to be here. Not supposed to be here." 18:07So at the end of my first year at Harvard, a student who had not talked in class the entire semester, who I had said, "Look, you've gotta participate or else you're going to fail," came into my office. I really didn't know her at all. And she said, she came in totally defeated, and she said, "I'm not supposed to be here." And that was the moment for me. Because two things happened. One was that I realized, oh my gosh, I don't feel like that anymore. You know. I don't feel that anymore, but she does, and I get that feeling. And the second was, she is supposed to be here! Like, she can fake it, she can become it. So I was like, "Yes, you are! You are supposed to be here! And tomorrow you're going to fake it, you're going to make yourself powerful, and, you know, you're gonna —" (Applause) (Applause) "And you're going to go into the classroom, and you are going to give the best comment ever." You know? And she gave the best comment ever, and people turned around and they were like, oh my God, I didn't even notice her sitting there, you know? (Laughter)19:13She comes back to me months later, and I realized that she had not just faked it till she made it, she had actually faked it till she became it. So she had changed. And so I want to say to you, don't fake it till you make it. Fake it till you become it. You know? It's not —Do it enough until you actually become it and internalize.19:33The last thing I'm going to leave you with is this. Tiny tweaks can lead to big changes. So this is two minutes. Two minutes, two minutes, two minutes. Before you go into the next stressful evaluative situation, for two minutes, try doing this, in the elevator,in a bathroom stall, at your desk behind closed doors. That's what you want to do. Configure your brain to cope the best in that situation. Get your testosterone up. Get your cortisol down. Don't leave that situation feeling like, oh, I didn't show them who I am. Leave that situation feeling like, oh, I really feel like I got to say who I am and show who I am.20:09So I want to ask you first, you know, both to try power posing, and also I want to ask you to share the science, because this is simple. I don't have ego involved in this. (Laughter) Give it away. Share it with people, because the people who can use it the most are the ones with no resources and no technology and no status and no power. Give it to them because they can do it in private. They need their bodies, privacy and two minutes, and it can significantly change the outcomes of their life. Thank you. (Applause) (Applause)中文翻译：首先我想要提供给你们一个免费的非科技的人生窍门你只需这样做改变你的姿势二分钟时间但在我要把它告诉你们之前，我想要请你们就你们的身体和你们身体的行为做一下自我审查那么你们之中有多少人正蜷缩着自己? 或许你现在弓着背，还翘着二郎腿? 或者双臂交叉有时候我们像这样抱住自己有时候展开双臂(笑声) 我看到你了(笑声) 现在请大家专心在自己的身上我们等一下就会回溯刚刚的事希望你们可以稍微改变一下这会让你的生活变得很不一样0:58所以，我们很真的很执着于肢体语言特别是对别人的肢体语言感兴趣你看，我们对(笑声) 尴尬的互动，或一个微笑或轻蔑的一瞥，或奇怪的眨眼甚至是握手之类的事情感兴趣1:22解说员:他们来到了唐宁街10号，看看这个这位幸运的警员可以和美国总统握手噢，还有来自....的总理?不(笑声) (掌声) (笑声) (掌声)1:37Amy Cuddy:所以一个握手，或没有握手我们都可以大聊特聊一番即使BBC和纽约时报也不例外我们说到肢体行为或肢体语言时我们将之归纳为社会科学它就是一种语言，所以我们会想到沟通当我们想到沟通，我们就想到互动所以你现在的身体语言正在告诉我什么? 我的身体又是在向你传达什么?2:04有很多理由让我们相信这些是有效的社会科学家花了很多时间求证肢体语言的效果或其它人的身体语言在判断方面的效应而我们环视身体语言中的讯息做决定和推论这些结论可以预测生活中很有意义的结果像是我们雇用谁或给谁升职，邀请谁出去约会举例而言，Tufts大学的研究员，Nalini Ambady表示人们观赏一部医生和患者互动的30秒无声影片他们对该医生的和善观感可用来预测该复健师是否会被告上法庭跟这个医生能否胜任工作没有太大关系重点是我们喜不喜欢他和他们是如何与人互动的? 进一步来说，普林斯顿的Alex Todorov 表示我们对政治人物脸部的喜好判断大概可用来对美国参议院和美国州长的竞选结果做70%的预测甚至就网络上在线聊天时使用的表情符号可以帮助你从交谈中得到更多信息所以你千万别弄巧成拙，对吧? 当我们提起肢体语言，我们就想到我们如何论断别人别人如何论断我们以及后果会是什么我们往往忘记这点，受到肢体动作所影响的那群观众就是我们自己3:31我们也往往受自己的肢体动作，想法感觉和心理所影响所以究竟我说的是怎样的非语言? 我是一位社会心理学家，我研究偏见我在一所极具竞争力的商业学院上课因此无可避免地对权力动力学感到着迷特别是在非语言表达对权力和支配的领域3:56权力和支配的非语言表达究竟是什么? 嗯，让我细细道来在动物王国里，它们和扩张有关所以你尽可能的让自己变大，你向外伸展占满空间，基本上就是展开关于展开，我说真的透视动物世界，这不仅局限于灵长类人类也干同样的事(笑声) 不论是他们长期掌权或是在某个时间点感到权力高涨他们都这么做特别有趣的原因是它让我们明白权力的展现从来是如此地一致，不管古今世界这种展现，被认为是一种荣耀Jessica Tracy研究表示视力良好无碍和先天视障的人在赢得比赛时都做了同样的事当他们跨过终点线赢得比赛之际无论能否看的见他们都做这样的动作双臂呈V字型朝上，下巴微微抬起那我们感到无助的时候呢?我们的行为正相反我们封闭起来。

召回中国产品危害小结CPSC 2023年3~4月召回时间：2022-04-27召回数量： 6,000危害简介：毛绒猴子玩具的眼睛会脱落，对儿童构成小部件堵塞气管危害。

召回时间：2022-04-27召回数量： 4,300危害简介：珠宝项链含铬超量。

铬如果被儿童吞入口中是有毒的，会引起不良健康反应。

新闻公告：23-194产品名称：毛绒猴子玩具新闻公告：23-192 产品名称：珠宝项链召回时间：2022-04-27召回数量：4,000危害简介：青少年全地形车不符合美国联邦安全标准。

某些型号的青少年全地形车超过原意为十岁或十岁以上的儿童车辆设置的最高时速，构成因高速驾驶而撞车的风险；另外一些型号的全地形车刹车不能阻止车辆移动，如果车辆停在有坡度的地面上时对消费者构成撞车危害；不符合美国强制性安全规定的全地形车构成严重受伤或死亡风险。

召回时间：2022-04-27召回数量：40危害简介：泳池排水盖不符合《弗吉尼亚-格雷姆-贝克泳池和水疗安全法》关于羁绊保护的标准，对游泳者和洗浴者构成羁绊危害。

召回时间：2022-04-27召回数量：116危害简介：泳池排水盖不符合《弗吉尼亚-格雷姆-贝克泳池和水疗安全法》关于羁绊保护的标准，对游泳者和洗浴者构成羁绊危害。

召回时间：2022-04-27召回数量：100危害简介：泳池排水盖不符合《弗吉尼亚-格雷姆-贝克泳池和水疗安全法》关于羁绊保护的标准，对游泳者和洗浴者构成羁绊危害。

新闻公告：23-191 产品名称：青少年全地形车新闻公告：23-749 产品名称：泳池排水盖新闻公告：23-750 产品名称：泳池排水盖新闻公告：23-748 产品名称：泳池排水盖召回时间：2022-04-20召回数量：110危害简介：儿童睡衣不符合美国联邦儿童睡衣阻燃标准，对儿童构成烧伤风险。

召回时间：2022-04-20召回数量：13,400危害简介：青少年直排轮滑鞋的后刹车支撑会断裂或与滑轮鞋分离，这会减低使用者的稳定性，从而增加跌倒的风险。

《大模型时代的基础架构》读书笔记目录一、内容描述 (2)二、大模型时代的挑战与机遇 (3)2.1 大模型带来的挑战 (5)2.1.1 计算资源的限制 (6)2.1.2 数据隐私与安全问题 (7)2.1.3 模型可解释性与透明度 (9)2.2 大模型带来的机遇 (10)2.2.1 新算法与新架构的出现 (11)2.2.2 跨领域合作与创新 (12)三、大模型时代的基础架构 (14)3.1 硬件架构 (15)3.1.1 GPU与TPU的发展与应用 (16)3.1.2 其他硬件技术的发展 (18)3.2 软件架构 (19)3.2.1 深度学习框架的功能与特点 (21)3.2.2 软件架构的可扩展性与灵活性 (22)3.3 优化与加速 (23)3.3.1 模型压缩技术 (24)3.3.2 知识蒸馏技术 (26)四、大模型时代的基础架构发展趋势 (27)4.1 技术融合与创新 (28)4.1.1 硬件与软件的融合 (29)4.1.2 多种技术的综合应用 (31)4.2 用户需求与市场导向 (32)4.2.1 用户需求的变化 (34)4.2.2 市场导向的影响 (35)五、结论 (37)一、内容描述《大模型时代的基础架构》是一本关于人工智能和深度学习领域的重要著作，作者通过对当前最先进的技术和方法的深入剖析，为我们揭示了大模型时代下的基础架构设计原则和实践经验。

本书共分为四个部分，分别从基础架构的概念、技术选型、部署和管理以及未来发展趋势等方面进行了全面阐述。

在第一部分中，作者首先介绍了基础架构的概念，包括什么是基础架构、为什么需要基础架构以及基础架构的主要组成部分等。

作者对当前主流的基础架构技术进行了简要梳理，包括云计算、分布式计算、容器化、微服务等。

通过对比分析各种技术的优缺点，作者为读者提供了一个清晰的技术选型参考。

第二部分主要围绕技术选型展开，作者详细介绍了如何根据项目需求和业务场景选择合适的基础架构技术。

数字化时代下市场营销策略创新研究目录一、内容概览 (2)1.1 背景与意义 (3)1.2 研究目的与问题 (4)1.3 研究方法与范围 (5)二、数字化时代市场营销策略的理论基础 (6)2.1 数字化与市场营销 (7)2.2 市场营销策略理论 (8)2.3 数字化时代市场营销策略的发展趋势 (9)三、数字化时代市场营销策略的创新模式 (10)3.1 数据驱动的营销策略 (12)3.2 社交媒体营销策略 (13)3.3 移动互联网营销策略 (13)3.4 大数据营销策略 (15)3.5 AI与市场营销策略 (16)四、数字化时代市场营销策略的创新实践 (18)4.1 企业案例分析 (20)4.2 创新策略的实施与效果评估 (21)4.3 面临的挑战与应对策略 (22)五、数字化时代市场营销策略的创新趋势与未来展望 (23)5.1 新兴技术对市场营销策略的影响 (24)5.2 跨界融合与创新路径 (25)5.3 未来发展趋势与机遇 (27)六、结论与建议 (28)6.1 研究总结 (29)6.2 对企业的建议 (31)6.3 研究局限与未来展望 (32)一、内容概览随着数字化时代的全面到来，市场营销策略正经历着前所未有的变革与创新。

本论文聚焦于这一变革背景，深入探讨了数字化时代下市场营销策略的创新方向与实施路径。

我们分析了数字化时代对市场营销环境的深刻影响，指出技术进步、消费者行为变化以及信息传播方式的革新共同构成了市场营销创新的基石。

在此基础上，论文详细阐述了数字化营销与传统营销的区别，强调了数字化营销在提升营销效率、降低成本、增强品牌互动等方面的显著优势。

论文围绕数字化时代市场营销策略的创新重点进行了深入剖析。

内容涵盖了数字化营销战略的制定、数字化渠道的选择与运用、大数据在市场营销中的应用、社交媒体营销的策略与实践、内容营销的魅力与挑战、个性化与定制化营销的发展趋势，以及移动营销的新机遇与挑战等多个方面。

制造商的商业模式有哪些？【推荐郑翔洲博士《新商业模式赢天下》DVD时代光华】所谓的商业模式是指企业根据自己的战略性资源，结合市场状况与合作伙伴的利益要求，而设计的一种商业运行组织，这种商业运行组织一般会设计到供应商，制造商，经销商，终端商以及消费者等综合性利益，因此，商业模式是一种多赢价值体系下，主导企业一种战略性构思。

商业模式不同于单一的渠道策略，商业模式更多地是一种基于利润结构为导向的组织结构性设计，而不是简单的一种渠道铺货策略。

制造商，品牌商，经销商，终端商，都有自己比较独特的商业模式。

这里主要针对快速消费品与耐用消费品制造企业，因此，所说的商业模式主要是为制造商（含品牌商）商业模式。

目前，制造商的商业模式主要有如下六种形式。

【制造商的商业模式】第一、直供商业模式。

主要应用在一些市场半径比较小，产品价格比较低或者是流程比较清晰，资本实力雄厚的国际性大公司。

直供商业模式需要制造商具有强大的执行力，现金流状况良好，市场基础平台稳固，具备市场产品流动速度很快的特点。

由于中国市场战略纵深很大，市场特点迥异，渠道系统复杂，市场规范化程度比较低，在全国市场范围内选择直供商业模式是难以想象的，因此，即使强大如口可可乐，康师傅等跨国企业也开始放弃直供这样商业模式。

但是，利润比较丰厚一些行业与产业还是会选择直供方式商业模式，如白酒行业，很多公司就选择了直供的商业模式。

云峰酒业为了精耕市场，在全国各地成立了销售性公司，直接控制市场终端，广州云峰酒业，西安云峰酒业，合肥云峰酒业，湖北云峰酒业等公司在当地市场上均具备一定的实力与良好的基础；如很多OTC产品也会选择直供市场。

【制造商的商业模式】第二、总代理制商业模式。

这种商业模式为中国广大的中小企业所广泛使用。

由于中国广大的中小企业在发展过程中面临着两个最为核心的苦难，其一是团队执行力比较差，他们很难在短时间内构建一个庞大的执行团队，而选择经销商做总代理可以省去很多当地市场执行面的困难；其二是资金实力上困难，中国中小企业普遍资金实力比较薄弱，选择总代理制商业模式，他们可以在一定成为上占有总代理上一部分资金，更有甚者，他们可以通过这种方式完成最初原始资金的积累，实现企业快速发展。