自由现金流
自由现金流估值模型
20092010201120122013
PE/3026.2522.518.7515
cap spending/share 2.5 2.35 2.55 2.75 2.95
LT bet2750025000240002300022000
shares18101810180317971790
ESP1 1.75 2.28 2.82 3.35
Working Capital1278017100184131972721040
cash flow calculation
porfit after tax18153175412050656010
Interest after tax761.1691.9664.2636.5608.9
Chg Working Cap 4320131313141313
Depriciation60006000600060006000
Cap Spending4253.54595.84938.25280.5terminal value FCFE1293.44875.45449.36025.4108880 FCFF-1898.53211.23812.84416.563180.49 Current Beta0.95
Unlevered Beta0.725
terminal growth0.03
tax rate 0.385
r-debt0.045
risk free rate0.035
market risk prem0.08
Debt/value0.340.30.270.230.2
Levered beta0.950.9170.8860.8590.834
K equity0.1110.1080.1060.1040.102
WACC0.082670.0840.0850.0860.087
现值因子 ｆｏｒ ＦＣＦＦ10.9220.850.7830.72
现值因子 ｆｏｒ ＦＣＦＥ10.9020.8160.7390.671
Ｐｒｅｓｅｎｔ ｖａｌｕｅ
ｐｖ ＦＣＦＦ 119341444266433878145
ｐｖ ＦＣＦＥ -171326202819296358574
al value
公司价值权益价值每股价值920856458535.68
652626526236.06