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文献、资料题目:EMA Gas Power Generation 文献、资料来源:期刊

文献、资料发表(出版)日期:2006

院(部):热能工程学院

专业:能源工程及自动化

班级:能源112

姓名:王彪

学号:2011031307

指导教师:于畅

翻译日期:2015.06

外文文献:EMA Gas Power Generation

Foreword

The National Energy Board (the NEB or the Board) is an independent federal agency that regulates several aspects of Canada's energy industry. Its purpose is to promote safety and security, environmental protection and economic efficiency in the Canadian public interest within the mandate set by Parliament in the regulation of pipelines, energy development and trade. The main functions of the NEB include regulating the construction and operation of pipelines that cross international or provincial borders, as well as tolls and tariffs. Another key role is to regulate international power lines and designated interprovincial power lines. The NEB also regulates natural gas imports and exports, oil, natural gas liquids and electricity exports, and some oil and gas exploration on frontier lands, particularly in Canada's North and certain offshore areas.

The NEB collects and analyzes information about Canadian energy markets through regulatory processes and market monitoring. From these efforts, the Board produces publications, statistical reports and speeches that address various market aspects of Canada’s energy commodities. The Energy Market Assessment (EMA) reports published by the Board provide analyses of the major energy commodities. Through these EMAS, Canadians are informed about the outlook for energy supplies in order to develop an understanding of the issues underlying energy-related decisions. In addition, policy makers are informed of the regulatory and related energy issues that need to be addressed. On this note, the Board has received feedback from a wide range of market participants across the country that the NEB has an important role and is in a unique position to provide objective, unbiased information to federal and provincial policy makers.

This EMA report, titled Natural Gas for Power Generation: Issues and Implications, is an assessment of the possible issues arising from the growing use of natural gas for electricity generation in North America. A key objective of this report is to provide a broad understanding and a perspective on the potential implications, challenges and opportunities for Canadian natural gas and electricity markets associated with the development of gas-fired generation.

During the preparation of this report, the NEB conducted a series of informal meetings and

discussions with gas and electricity industry officials, government departments and agencies, consultants and industry associations. The NEB appreciates the information and comments provided and would like to thank all participants for their time and expertise.

If a party wishes to rely on material from this report in any regulatory proceeding before the NEB, it may submit the material, just as it may submit any public document. Under these circumstances, the submitting party in effect adopts the material and that party could be required to answer questions pertaining to the material.

Introduction

In its previous reports, looking ahead to 2010 –Natural Gas Markets in Transition and Outlook for Electricity Markets (2005-2006) the Board noted that the demand for electricity in Canada and North America will continue to grow and that a significant part of the incremental demand will be met through electricity generated from natural gas. The reports also highlighted that there are uncertainties with respect to future natural gas supply and infrastructure that may be needed to meet the growing requirement for electricity, the largest growth market for demand of natural gas.

Driven by a combination of increasing population, economic growth and the greater use of electrical equipment, the demand for electricity is expected to continue to grow steadily in the coming years. Much of the rising need for electricity is likely to be met through natural gas-fired generation. In fact, since 1998, of the almost 211 500 MW of incremental electricity generation capacity installed in the United States, over 200 000 MW or 96 percent is capable of using natural gas.

Although gas-fired generation does not make up as large a percentage of total capacity in Canada as in the United States, it has grown substantially. Since 1998, 57 percent of the new generating capacity in Canada has been gas-fired. In 1995, natural gas-fired generation made up only four percent (4 500 MW) of Canada’s total generating capacity, whereas in 2004, it made up around nine percent (10 514 MW). Growth in industrial demand, such as the oil sands development, will further increase the demand for natural gas and electricity supply. While the growth in gas-fired generation has not been as rapid as in the United States, the trend is likely to intensify in Canada.

Today, over 45 percent of installed electricity generation capacity in the United States is

capable of using natural gas as fuel compared with about 30 percent a decade ago. This substantial and rapid increase in potential demand and dependency on natural gas has led to uncertainties regarding the adequacy of existing natural gas and electricity infrastructure and concerns over the reliability of future natural gas and electricity supply.

This EMA examines the potential impacts of growing natural gas-fired generation on Canadian natural gas markets and infrastructure, and the potential changes that may be experienced in natural gas flows and natural gas services.

Scope of this Report

The objective of this report is to present a historical examination of trends in natural gas-fired generation in North America and to provide a perspective on issues and potential implications of increasing reliance on natural gas. In particular, the discussion will focus on potential changes to Canadian energy consumers, natural gas infrastructure and services, and on potential implications for Canadian natural gas and electricity prices. While discussions will emphasize Canadian situations and issues, energy markets are integrated and “gas for power” trends may reflect developments outside of Canada. Therefore, much of the analysis and discussion presented in this report will be from a broader regional and continental perspective.

Chapter 2 examines the historical trend toward natural gas-fired generation of electricity in the United States and Canada and provides a general overview of the potential issues for Canadian natural gas markets, infrastructure and services. Although, incremental gas-fired generation has been installed in most regions, the utilization and impacts of new gas generation has varied across regions depending on the availability of natural gas and diversity of alternate generation options.

Chapters 3, 4 and 5 examine these issues in closer detail from a regional perspective and discuss the changes in generation and natural gas markets in three regions: western, eastern and central North America. The implications and questions that arise from the analysis of specific regional supply, demand and infrastructure situations are examined in Chapter 6.

Background

For more than a decade, natural gas has been the fuel of choice for new power generation in North America, especially in the United States. In fact, over the last five years alone, total generating capacity in the United States has increased by more than 25 percent with natural

gas-fired generation accounting for 96 percent of the additional generation (Figure 2.1). Overall, natural gas-fired generation in the United States has doubled since 1990 (Figure 2.2).

In Canada, the development of electricity generation has proceed ed at a slower pace as demand for electricity has been relatively stable. As well, while incremental electricity generation in Canada is increasingly fueled by natural gas, the trend has been less consistent and much slower due to the varying availability of natural gas and the presence of other generation options across regions. In most provinces where natural gas is available, gas-fired generation has had to compete with other traditional sources of generation such as coal, hydro and refurbished nuclear power, which have been relatively abundant in the past. Nonetheless, the portion of Canadian electricity generation that is gas-fired has increased from four percent in 1995 to nine percent in 2004.

Despite recent cost increases, gas-fired generation, particularly cogeneration facilities, continues to be an attractive option. These cogeneration plants operate at very high efficiency and provide a low cost source of process heat for end-use requirements. Hence, natural gas-fired cogeneration facilities are being developed in conjunction with the growing number of oil sands and in situ bitumen projects.

As a result, Alberta has experienced the largest growth in gas-fired electricity generation capacity in Canada. In 2004, about 40 percent of installed electricity generation capacity in Alberta was

natural gas-fired.

As would be expected, many regions across North America have witnessed the development of natural gas-fired generation. The significant growth in natural gas-fired generation capacity in North America has largely been attributed to low capital cost, a relatively short construction lead time for gas-fired plants, low natural gas prices (especially during the summer or cooling season) throughout the 1990s, and the preference for natural gas over other fossil fuels for its cleaner burning properties. Moreover, there has generally been less public opposition to building new natural gas-fired plants than to building coal-fired, hydroelectric or nuclear facilities.

As a result, facilities capable of using natural gas now make up more than 45 percent of the approximately 1 000 000 MW of electricity generation capacity in the United States and about ten percent of the 118 000 MW electricity generation capacity in Canada (Figure 2.3).

This rapid build of North American gas-fired generation, often referred to as the “dash to gas”, exceeded the market need for these facilities in some regions. Consequently, many plants have been under-utilized or not utilized at all. The overall low utilization of gas-fired generation has been exacerbated recently by higher natural gas prices over the past few years. So, despite the relatively large natural gas component of total generation capacity, actual generation fuelled by natural gas is much less relative to the available capacity (Figure 2.4).

On the surface it would appear that the gas-fired generation fleet is too large and that it will take some time for the overall utilization of the fleet to expand to match its share of total generating capacity. While there has indeed been an overbuild of gas-fired generation, much of this occurred in certain markets that either couldn’t support the amount of incremental generation or where gas supply infrastructure limited the utilization of some plants.

Today, natural gas-fired generation continues to be developed across North America. In addition to the advantages of gas-fired generation noted earlier, new gas-fired generation facilities employ rapidly evolving technologies that provide significant cost advantages. For example, new cogeneration and combined-cycle gas plants are more efficient than older coal, natural gas or oil-fired generation. As well, smaller gas-fired facilities built closer to market loads may offer cost savings over construction of new power transmission lines fro m other generation sources.

As a direct result of the trend to gas-fired generation, projections for natural gas demand in

North America indicate a significant and continuing increase. The Board estimates, partially based on the 2005 U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) outlook, that the combined Canadian and U.S. demand for gas will increase by almost 15 percent, or 283 million m3/d (10 B c f /d), by 2015, with gas?fired generation making up about one-half of that growth. Convergence of Natural Gas and Electricity Markets

Although demand for electricity in both the United States and Canada has grown steadily and is expected to continue to grow at a relatively steady rate, changes in how the electricity is generated can be much more dramatic.

In the 1990s, natural gas was used to produce about 13 percent of the total electricity in the United States. This proportion has continued to increase with the addition of significant new capacity for gas-fired generation. In 2004, almost 18 percent of electricity generated in the United States was produced from natural gas.

Even so, the generation of electricity from natural gas could have been even higher. High and volatile natural gas prices, less volatile power prices and regional gas supply constraints since 2001 slowed the utilization of gas for power generation . Despite this, new gas-fired generation continues to be installed in order to meet growing electrical demand, as new plants offer better technologies that are more efficient and economical. While natural gas consumption for electricity generation has been stable at around 510 million m3/d (18 Bcf/d) since 2000, the amount of available gas-fired generation in Canada and the U.S. has increased by over 50 percent in this period with the construction of about 160 000 MW of gas-fired generators. This has resulted in a surplus of available gas-fired generation capacity in many regions that could be utilized to meet growing requirements for electricity, assuming availability and access to gas supply.

As the consumption of natural gas for power generation increases, this will lead to greater connection between gas and power markets within many regions. Not only will electricity prices be influenced by those of natural gas but, with power generation becoming the fastest growing sector of natural gas demand, natural gas prices will also be increasingly influenced by electricity markets. To illustrate, natural gas consumption for gas-fired generation has doubled over the past ten years and in 2005 it accounted for almost 27 percent of combined Canadian and U.S. gas consumption (Figure 2.6).

Moreover, as the electricity and natural gas industries become more integrated, reliability and operational issues in one can exacerbate the effects on supply and demand in the other; this may result in extreme and volatile energy prices at times. In regions where electricity and gas demand are particularly weather sensitive, peak demand in both markets may coincide, resulting in short-term escalation in electricity and natural gas prices. This is especially the case where available gas supply is limited, thereby resulting in competition between gas and electricity markets.

The degree to which this can occur will vary greatly across regions depending on the availability and diversity of gas supply, reliance on gas-fired generation, operation and coordination between gas and electricity markets, availability of other coal-fired and nuclear generation, and the effect of other influences on gas supply and demand such as conditions fo r hydroelectric generation and demand sensitivity to weather. These factors and the implications of convergence in regional natural gas and electricity markets on Canadian gas flows and markets are examined further in Chapters 3, 4 and 5.

Environmental Considerations

Although high and volatile natural gas prices since 2001 may have slowed the utilization of gas for power generation and the pace of adding new gas-fired generation capacity, natural gas remains attractive with many potential advantages over other forms of generation (as outlined in Section 2.2). Natural gas is a cleaner burning fuel with lower emissions and impact on air quality compared with many other fossil fuels. This is likely to perpetuate the trend to more gas-fired generation, at least in the near future, until new technology and advances in alternative and renewable generation or clean coal combustion can provide appreciable contributions to North American electricity supply.

Current government initiatives in both Canada and the United States to control air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions have not only placed limitations on the use and development of oil and coal?fired generation, but have also added to the appeal of gas-fired generation. However, critics question the benefits and ability to sustain the continued growth in gas-fired generation.

While there are economic concerns with respect to over-reliance on natural gas and the implications this could have on prices, energy security and adequacy of natural gas infrastructure, generation from natural gas also has its environmental challenges. These include the impact of

activity to find and develop new gas supplies in sensitive areas, incremental air emissions and pollutants from added fossil fuel generation, and impacts from new infrastructure that may be required to produce or deliver new energy supplies. The response to these challenges has varied across regions, often reflecting the different interests and priorities of jurisdictions.

Depending on how the various government initiatives and policies play out across jurisdictions, there could also be significant implications for gas and electricity markets in each region.

Future Natural Gas Supply

The increased use of natural gas for electric power generation has raised concerns over the adequacy of additional natural gas supply and infrastructure at a time when gas supply and demand has been in relatively tight balance.

High natural gas prices resulting from the tight balance between North American gas supply and demand has been a key factor in encouraging more gas drilling. However, increases in gas production that have resulted from the high levels of drilling have not kept pace with growth in demand. Rather, high levels of drilling activity have managed mostly to offset the higher decline rates and lower productivity of new wells. In other words, the producing sector needs to drill more wells each year just to keep production flat.

Overall, the outlook for natural gas supply in Canada and the U.S. is that production will grow marginally by 2006 to approximately 1 936.5 million m3/d (68.4 B c f /d). This level of production has been relatively flat over the past six years (Figure 2.7). The Board expects that average annual U.S. gas production will rise slightly over the projection period to approximately 1 458.9 million m3/d (51.5 B c f /d), with growth coming mainly from the U.S. Rockies.

The Board also expects a slight increase in Canadian gas deliverability to about 477 million m3/d (16.9 B c f /d) by 2006. For further details on Canadian production and projections, refer to the NEB s report on Short-term Canadian Natural Gas Deliverability, 2005 – 2007.

These production increases alone are not sufficient to meet the projected future requirements for natural gas demand, including power generation. Consequently, any increases in demand for gas?fired generation would necessitate a reduction in gas consumption by other consumers and the development of further sources of gas supply.

A key supply source for North America is expected to be the rapidly developing global

liquefied natural gas (LNG) market. Proven reserves of natural gas worldwide are about 20 times larger than the proven natural gas reserves of North America. Furthermore, advances in liquefaction and transportation technologies have lowered the unit cost of LNG by 30 percent over the past decade, enabling the use of LNG as a cost competitive source of gas supply in North America.

In the past few years, existing North American LNG receiving terminals have undergone expansions and by early 2006 these terminals had the capacity to import about 147 million m3/d (5.2 B c f /d). Further, in anticipation of growing natural gas requirements, numerous new receiving facilities and expansions of some existing terminals have been proposed, including sites in Canada.

Given the potential changes to gas supply and demand in North America, significant investments will be required to enable the continuing development of gas from existing supply areas to develop and provide access to gas from new regions and LNG. A key determinant in the growth of gas?fired generation is the availability of adequate gas supply and infrastructure at competitive prices.

Furthermore, the development of market area gas storage, distribution, fuel diversification, and other services may also be required to effectively manage dynamic electricity and natural gas markets and to provide natural gas supply in the reliable and timely manner needed to serve fluctuating and weather sensitive electricity and natural gas markets.

中文译文:EMA天然气发电

引言

国家能源局( NEB 或董事会)是一个独立的联邦机构,管理加拿大能源产业的几个方面。它的目的是在加拿大的公共利益管道调节议会设置的授权范围内促进安全、环保和经济的效率,能源发展和贸易。NEB 的主要功能包括调节管道跨国际或省际边界的建设运营,以及过路费和关税。另一个重要作用是调节国际电力线和指定省际电力线。NEB 也调节天然气的进口和出口,石油,液化天然气和电力出口,在边境土地上的一些石油和天然气的勘探,特别是在加拿大的北部和一定的近海地区。

NEB 通过管制的程序收集而且分析关于加拿大能源市场。从这些努力,董事会发表的出版物,统计报告和演讲,解决加拿大的能源商品市场方面的各种问题。经董事会公开的能源市场评估(EMA)报告提供主要的能源日用品分析。通过这些均线,加拿大人了解为了能源供应,开发潜在能源相关的决策问题的理解观此外,政策制定者了解监管和相关能源问题需要解决。在这方面,董事会已从一个广泛的市场参与者遍布全国各地, NEB 有一个重要的角色而且在一个独特位置提供客观、没有偏见的数据给联邦和消费者。

这一项 EMA 报告,题为天然气发电:问题与意义,是为北美的电力越来越多的天然气使用出现的可能议题的一个评估。本报告的主要目的是提供对潜在影响的广泛理解和透视,加拿大的天然气和电力市场与燃气发电发展相关的挑战和机遇。

在这一项报告的准备期间, NEB 和瓦斯和电力业官员引导了一系列非正式的会议和讨论,政府部门和代理商,顾问和工业协会参与了这一讨论。NEB 赞赏的信息和评论提供,要感谢所有的参与者对他们的时间和专业知识。

如果一方希望依靠材料从这个报告在 NEB 获得任何监管程序,可以提交材料,正如它可以提交任何公开文件,正如它可能委托任何民众文件。在这种情况下,提交党实际上采用的材料,方可要求回答有关的材料问题。

介绍

在它的早先报告中,展望了 2010–天然气市场转型和电力市场( 2005-2006)。董事会指出,在加拿大和北美国的电力需求将继续增加,增量需求很大一部分将通过天然气发电提供。报告还强调,有对未来的天然气供应和基础设施可能需求满足的不确定性,对电力的需求日益增长,对天然气的需求使其成为最大的增长市场。

结合人口增长的带动下,经济增长和电力设备的大量使用,对电力的需求预计将在未

来几年继续稳步增长。多用电需求的上升可能是通过天然气发电提供。事实上,自 1998 以来,在美国几乎 211500 兆瓦发电装机容量的增加,超过 200000 兆瓦或百分之九十六能够使用天然气。

虽然燃气发电在美国不像在加拿大在总产量中占很大比例,它已经大幅增长了。自1998 年以来,在加拿大,新的发电能力的百分之 57 已经是煤气炉。1995,天然气发电只占加拿大的总发电能力的百分之四( 4 个 500 兆瓦),而在 2004,它完成大约 9%(10514 MW)的增长点。工业需求的增长,如油砂的开发,将进一步加大对天然气的需求和电力供应。而在燃气发电的增长并没有在美国迅速增长,这一趋势可能在加拿大加剧。

今天,和十年前的大约 30% 相比较,在美国超过 45% 的已安装的电力生产设备以天然气作为燃料。这一实质,对天然气的潜在需求和依赖快速增长导致其不确定性,对于引导了充足现有天然气和电力基础设施的可靠性,未来的天然气和电力供应产生担忧。

这一 EMA 考察在增长天然气发电在加拿大天然气市场和基础设施的潜在影响,和可能有天然气流量和天然气服务潜在的变化这一范围内。

本报告的范围

本报告的目的是提供一个在美国北部天然气发电趋势的历史考察及提供增加对天然气的依赖问题和潜在影响的视角。特别是,讨论集中在加拿大的能源消费者的潜在变化,天然气的基础设施和服务,加拿大天然气和电力价格的潜在影响。虽然讨论会强调加拿大的情况和问题,能源市场一体化和“气”的趋势可能反映了加拿大以外的能源市场评估的发展。因此,本报告的分析和探讨,提出了会从一个更广泛的区域和大陆的视角。

第 2 章在美国和加拿大调查接近电力的点燃天然气世代的历史趋势而且为加拿大天然气提供潜在议题的一个概要市场、系统内各部分和服务。虽然,增量燃气气发电机组已经安装在大多数地区,新的天然气利用方式在不同地区根据交替生成可用性和多样性的天然气。

章节 3,4 和 5 更详细的从区域的角度研究这些问题,讨论在三个地区发电和天然气市场的变化:在北美国的西部,东部和中部从特定区域供给分析时的意义和问题,要求和系统内各部分情形的分析时出现的疑问在第 6 章研究。

背景

十多年来,在北美洲,特别是在美国,天然气已经成为新的发电燃料的选择。事实上,在过去的五年中,在美国总发电能力增加了25个百分点,通过增加天然气发电占百分之96

个百分点。总的来说,燃气发电世纪90年代以来,在美国天然气发电,增加了两倍之多。在加拿大,电力的发展已经开始维持在电力需求一直相对稳定的慢节奏。

同时,在加拿大,增量发电越来越多的使用天然气燃料,由于不同的可用性的天然气和跨地区的其他生成选项的存在,这种趋势已经变得不再一层不变也慢得多。在大多数省份已使用天然气,燃气发电已与其他传统发电资源产生竞争,像煤炭发电,翻新水电核电等,这些发电方式在过去一直很流行。加拿大发电行业,燃气发电的部分已经从1995的百分之四增加到2004的百分之九。

尽管最近的成本增加,燃气发电,特别是热电联产设施,仍然是一个有吸引力的选择。这些热电厂运行的效率非常高,为最终使用要求提供一个低成本的加热过程。因此,天然气热电联产设施正在与油砂和原位沥青项目开发有越来越多连接发展。因此,阿尔伯塔经历了加拿大燃气发电容量最大的增长。2004,在阿尔伯塔总的安装的发电容量有百分之40的部分是以天然气为燃料。

美国的发电力增加,1990-2003

铭牌容量

来源EIA

正如被期望的那样,在美国北部的许多地区,见证了天然气发电的发展。在北美天然气发电量显著增长,在很大程度上归因于较低的资本成本,和在相对较短的时间内建成了燃气电厂,在上世纪90年代,天然气价格较低(尤其是在夏季或冷季),而且相对于传统化石燃料天然气更清洁。此外,很少有公众反对建设天然气设施而支持建设煤炭设施和核能设施。

因此,在美国天然气设施大约能够生产1 000 000兆瓦电力超过发电容量的百分之四十五,在加拿大约118000兆瓦的发电能力占发电容量的百分之十。

这种快速的北美燃气发电建设,通常被称为“冲气”,在某些地区超过了对这些设施的市场需求。因此,许多工厂已经出现使用或不使用的情况。在过去几年中燃气发电的总体利用率低加剧了最近更高的天然气价格。所以,尽管天然气发电占总发电容量的组分比较大,实际发电,以天然气为燃料的可用容量相对较少。

表面上看来,燃气发电车队太大,它要为总体舰队扩大到符合其总发电量的份额需要花费一些时间。确实存在过度建设燃气发电设施的情况,多发生在要么无法支持燃气设施数量的增值或燃气供应设施限制了一些植物的利用的某些市场。

如今,天然气发电将继续在美国北部进行开发。除了前面提到的燃气发电的优势,新的燃气发电设施使用的技术也在迅速发展,可提供显著的成本优势。例如,新的热电联产和联合循环燃气电厂比煤炭、天然气或石油发电更高效,。同时,较小的燃气设施的建成更接近市场负荷,或许可以为新的输电线路与其他发电能源建设提供成本。

作为燃气发电趋势的直接结果,在美国,预计天然气需求将显著和持续的增长。该委员根据2005年美国能源信息管理局(EIA)的前景估计,,认为联合加拿大和美国的天然气需求在2015年将增加近百分之十五也就是283000000 m3 / d(10立方英尺/天),气?发电约占其增长的一半。

虽然在美国和加拿大的电力需求稳步增长,而且预计将持续在一个相对稳定的增长速度,但是更戏剧性的是电力发展将如何变化。

在上世纪90年代以,在美国天然气生产的电力约占总电力的百分之十三。由于燃气发电重要新产能的添加这一比例一直在增加。2004,在美国几乎百分之十八的电力是利用天然气发电产生的。

即便如此,天然气发电有可能取得更好的发展。天然气价格的高昂和波动性,能源价格的低波动性和天然气供应的区域限制都减缓了燃气发电的发展。尽管如此,为了满足电力需求增长新的燃气发电设施将继续安装,且为新工厂提供更好的技术,更高的效率和效益。而自2000年以来用于发电的天然气消费量一直稳定在510000000 m3 / d(18亿立方英尺/天),在这一时期加拿大和美国的可燃气发电量增加了百分之五十,燃气发电机组生产了约160000兆瓦电力。这在许多可以满足电力需求增长,燃气供应的地区导致了可燃气体发电容量的过剩。

随着用于发电的天然气的消费增加,这将导致在许多地区天然气和电力市场之间更大的连接。不仅电力价格将受天然气影响,发电业将成为天然气需求增长最快的行业,天然气价格也将对电力市场产生越来越大的影响。例如,在过去的十年中燃气发电的天然气消

费量增加了一倍,,2005年其占了近联合加拿大和美国的天然气消费量的百分之二十七。

此外,由于电力和天然气行业变得更加协调,可靠和可操作性,任何一方可能会加剧对另一方供给和需求的影响;这有时会造成能源价格的极端和波动。在一些电力和天然气的需求对天气特别敏感地区,市场需求高峰重合,导致短期内电力和天然气价格的升高。在天然气供应有限的特别情况下,将导致天然气和电力市场之间的竞争。

各地区根据天然气供应的可用性和多样性,对燃气发电的依赖,天然气和电力市场的运作和协调,其他燃煤和核能发电的可用性,以及其他影响天然气供应与需求如水力发电和需求敏感的天气条件的影响这一程度发生的。在地区天然气和电力市场对加拿大天然气流动和市场的因素和收敛性的影响在第3,4和5章中将进一步检查。

自2001年以来,尽管天然气价格高企和波动可能利用天然气发电和放缓的步伐添加新的燃气发电容量,天然气仍吸引许多潜在优势其他形式的一代(如2.2节中列出)。天然气是一种清洁燃烧的燃料较低的排放,对空气质量的影响与很多其他化石燃料。这可能会使这一趋势更多的燃气发电,至少在不久的将来,直到新技术和先进的可替代和可再生发电或洁净煤燃烧可以提供北美电力供应明显的贡献。

现任政府计划在加拿大和美国控制空气污染和温室气体排放不仅将限制石油和煤炭的使用和发展-发射了一代,但也增加了对燃气发电的吸引力。然而,批评人士质疑的好处和维持燃气发电的持续增长的能力。

虽然有经济问题对于过度依赖天然气,这可能影响价格,能源安全和充足的天然气基础设施,天然气的生成也有它的环境挑战。这些包括活动的影响来寻找和发展新的创作敏感地区的天然气供应,增加空气和污染物排放化石燃料发电,从新的基础设施和影响,可能需要生产或交付新的能源供应。应对这些挑战不同地区,通常反映了不同利益和优先事项的司法区。

这取决于各种政府计划和政策在司法管辖区,也可能有重大影响在每个地区的天然气和电力市场。

未来天然气供应

当为了发电而增加使用的天然气已经超出天然气供应能力和基础设施承受范围时,天然气的供应和需求已经处于一个相对紧张的状态。

由于北美天然气紧张的供需局势导致天然气价格的高涨成为鼓励建设更多的气体钻井的关键因素。然而,天然气产量的增加,导致钻井水平并没有跟上需求的增长。相反,高水平的钻探活动已大多用于抵消较高的下降率和新建气体钻井的低生产率。换句话说,生产部门每年需要钻更多的气体钻井以维持生产水平。

总的来说, 在加拿大和美国天然气供应的前景,生产将2006年小幅增长到大约9.365亿m3 / d(68.4供应量/ d)。这种程度的生产一直相对平坦的在过去的六年里(图2.7)。董事会预计年均美国天然气产量将小幅升值在投射期间大约4.589亿m3 / d(51.5供应量/ d),增长主要来自美国落基山脉

董事会还预计略有增加在加拿大天然气产能约4.77亿m3 / d到2006年预计将(16.9 / d)。详情在加拿大生产和预测,是指在短期内的报告加拿大天然气产能,2005 - 2007。这些生产增加本身并不足以满足天然气需求预测未来需求,包括发电。因此,任何对天然气的需求增加——解雇代将需要减少天然气消费其他消费者和进一步的发展,天然气供应的来源。

北美的主要供应源预计将迅速发展的全球液化天然气(LNG)市场。全球天然气探明储量约20倍北美的已探明天然气储量。此外,液化和运输技术的进步降低了单位成本的液化天然气30%在过去的十年中,使使用液化天然气作为北美天然气供应的成本竞争力的来源。

在过去的几年里,现有的北美液化天然气接收终端进行了扩张,到2006年初,这些终端能力进口约1.47亿m3 / d(5.2供应量/ d)。进一步的预期日益增长的天然气需求,众多新接收设施和扩张的一些现有的终端被提出,包括加拿大的网站。

考虑到北美天然气供应与需求的潜在变化,为了维持现有供应区的持续发展并且开发和提供新的地区的天然气和液化天然气需要有一个显著投资。在燃气发电增长的关键因素是充足的天然气供应的有效利用和基础设施要有一个有竞争力的价格。

此外,天然气储存市场,配送,燃料多元化的发展,和其他服务可能还需要有效地管理动态的电力和天然气市场,并且提供可靠、及时的天然气供应服务于波动、敏感的电力和天然气市场。

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