常用句型In respond to the problem of …, as well as to… (improve? prevent?), the arguer concludes that … This recommendation is based on the following claims: …, and …, as evidenced by the fact that …/is based on the claim that … Several reasons/evidences are cited in support of the argument: first, second, third.At first glance, the argument is seemingly somewhat convincing, but further reflection reveals that the argument fails to address some important concerns which are necessary to substantiate the argument.Mix up correlation and causationThis argument is a classic instance of "what happens first is the cause" reasoning. The only evidence put forward to support the causal claim that (AA is the cause of BB) is that (AA preceded BB). However, the sequence alone of two events is insufficient to constitute the causal claim. (Although the trend/tendency cited in the study has remained stable for the past 10 years, there is no guarantee that it/the same trend will continue.)Actually, the speaker overlooks other factors that might also contribute to the result. (The author overlooks the changes of environment where XX and YY happen)具体举例：For instance, may…/ it is entirely possible that … ( In addition, …may…/perhaps that…)In short, without considering and ruling out all of these and other possibilities, the credibility of the arguer’s conclusion is really open to doubt for the reason that each of the possibilities, if true, would serve to undermine the arguer’s conclusion.常见逻辑错误(1)无端假设（还是找其他可能）Most conspicuously, the argument rests on thegratuitous assumption that~~~（假设内容）The author, however, cite no evidence to support this assumption. This assumption is dubious in two aspects. For one thing, it’s entirely possible that~~~For another, even it is true that~~~the mere fact ~~~does not necessarily indicate that ~~~ Lacking this assumption, the expectation of ~~~ to ~~~is entirely unfounded.(2)错误类比（找不同点）The argument is unconvincing also because it is based on afalse analogy. Differences between the ~~~ clearly outweigh the similarities, thus making it highly doubtful to apply facts drawn from ~~~ to ~~~. For example, (例如：problems of ~~~all affect the food industry but are virtually absent in the~~) Therefore, without sufficient information showing that most or even all of the conditions in A and B is similar or the same, the argument is doubtful.(3)错误调查（调查的样本数、多样性存在问题）A threshold problem with this argumentinvolves a research itself. The number of the participants, XX, might be just an insufficiently small sample which cannot represent ~~ Also, the sample might be not necessarily representative of (所有群体), for ~~ Unless it can be shown that the sample is typical of all general group, it’s unwarranted to draw any conclusion at all.(4)情况变化（赖以存在的条件发生变化）The argument is based on the poorassumption that all conditions have remained unchanged since~~~(时间)(at different time or different locations). Apparently, the author fails to take into account that ~~~might have changed. Without this consideration, it’s unsound to conclude that~~~(5)必要非充分（找其他的因素、选择）The author unfairly assumes that~~~and~~~aremutually exclusive alternatives and there is no room for a middle ground. However,A andB might not be the only options and there might be other better alternativessuch as ~~~and ~~~ and so on. Therefore, this argument is unwarranted without ruling out other choices.(6)入不敷出（某一措施的收益可能小于花费）A will not possibly earn a substantial profitby~~~ while it is entirely possible that the cost of ~~~is prohibitively high, even preventing ~~~ from making a profit/resulting in heavy financial burden. In short, without weighing revenue/gains against expenses the author’s notion is premature at best.结尾：In conclusion, the plan/recommendation/solution/argument that … is seriously undermined by the numerous logical flaws identified above. To strengthen the argument, the author should provide reliable evidence about …, eliminate relevant factors that may result in …, or take into consideration other issues discussed above. 举例分析1.The following appeared as part of an annual report sent to stockholders by Olympic Foods, a processor of frozen foods:"Over time, the costs of processing go down because as organizations learn how to do things better, they become more efficient. In color film processing, for example, the cost of a 3-by-5-inch print fell from 50 cents for five-day service in 1970to 20 cents for one-day service in 1984. The same principle applies to the processing of food. And since Olympic Foods will soon celebrate its 25th birthday, we can expect that our long experience will enable us to minimize costs and thus maximize profits." Discuss how well reasoned ... etc.翻译：下面摘自一家冷冻食品处理商（processor）奥林匹克食品提交给股东的年报：随着时间流逝，由于机构了解了做好事情的方法进而提高了效率，处理的成本会降低。
