金融:理财细则落地
- 格式:pdf
- 大小:1000.72 KB
- 文档页数:4
SWS Research Co. Ltd is a subsidiary of ShenwanHongyuan Securities. 99 East Nanjing Road, Shanghai | +86 21 2329 7818 www.swsresearch.com
Industry Research Bringing China to the World
8 Oct,2018
Overweight
Unchanged 理财细则落地
银行业
Analyst
Vivian Xue
A0230511110001
BBE746
(+86) 21 23297273 xuehr@swsresearch.com
Related Reports
The company does not hold any equities or derivatives of the listed company mentioned in this report (“target”), but then we shall provide financial advisory services subject to the relevant laws and regulations. Any affiliates of the company may hold equities of the target, which may exceed 1 percent of issued shares subject to the relevant laws and regulations. The company may also provide investment banking services to the target. The Company fulfills its duty of disclosure within its sphere of knowledge. The clients may contact compliance@swsresearch.com for relevant disclosure materials or log into www.swsresearch.com under disclosure column for further information. The clients shall have a comprehensive understanding of the disclosure and disclaimer upon the last page. 2018年9月28日,中国银行保险监督管理委员会印发了《商业银行理财业务监督管理
办法》。2018年10月7日,央行宣布从2018年10月15日起,下调大型商业银行、股份制商业银行、城市商业银行、非县域农村商业银行、外资银行人民币存款准备金率1
个百分点。
此次理财新规正式稿与2018年7月的征求意见稿内容基本一致,监管基调未有大方向变化,对“打破刚兑、限制错配、限制嵌套、规范资金池”等核心问题均保持了与资管
新规相同的要求。
一、打破刚性兑付:(1)明确理财业务不得承诺保本保收益,商业银行已经发行的保证收益型和保本浮动收益型理财产品应当按照结构性存款或者其他存款进行规范管理。(2)打
破刚性兑付,不得为理财产品投资的非标准化债权类资产或权益类资产提供任何直接或
间接、显性或隐性的担保或回购承诺。(3)禁止资金池,确保每只理财产品与所投资资产相对应,做到每只理财产品单独管理、单独建账和单独核算。(4)实行净值化管理,要求
理财产品实行净值化管理。新规后银行存款准备金、资本和拨备计提压力上升,但由于
保本理财规模有限,影响相对可控。由于存量银行理财产品中净值型产品占比仅为10%,投资者对净值型理财产品的广泛接受仍需时日,这将导致短期理财产品需求放缓。
二、严格非标准化债权类资产投资要求:(1)商业银行理财产品不得直接投资于信贷资
产,不得直接或间接投资于本行信贷资产和本行信贷资产受(收)益权,不得直接或间接投资于本行或其他银行业金融机构发行的理财产品。(2)商业银行理财产品所投资的资
产管理产品不得再投资于其他资产管理产品(公募证券投资基金除外)。(3)商业银行全
部理财产品投资于单一债务人及其关联企业的非标准化债权类资产余额,不得超过本行资本净额的10%;(三)商业银行全部理财产品投资于非标准化债权类资产的余额在任何
时点均不得超过理财产品净资产的35%,也不得超过本行上一年度审计报告披露总资产
的4%。
三、限制期限错配:(1)商业银行发行的封闭式理财产品的期限不得低于90天。(2)
商业银行理财产品直接或间接投资于非标准化债权类资产的,非标准化债权类资产的终
止日不得晚于封闭式理财产品的到期日或者开放式理财产品的最近一次开放日。理财新规严格限制了非标资产的期限错配,这将对银行理财投资非标资产带来较大难度。目前
非标资产在存量非保本理财产品中的占比约为15%,在这部分理财产品到期后,银行需
要寻求其他基础资产来配置,而企业也需要寻求债券或者贷款来替代原有的非标融资,这将导致银行理财业务规模增速放缓,收益率下降,资本计提压力提升,实体经济融资
可得性降低。
与资管新规相比,此次理财细则和7月的央行补充通知有一些边际上的宽松,体现在:
一、理财业务负债端:公募理财的投资门槛由现行的5万元下调至1万元,这将拓宽银
行理财业务的客户群,一定程度上对冲老产品转型带来的理财产品需求下降。此外,根
据央行补充意见,过渡期内,银行类货基产品和半年以上定期开放式理财能够运用摊余成本法计价,这将有利于银行更平稳实现产品过渡,增强过渡期内债券和现金管理类理
财的定价优势,缓解由银行理财负债端紧张对金融市场和实体经济融资造成的冲击。
二、理财业务资产端:(1)明确公募理财也可以投资非标。(2)理财细则和央行通知都未限制公募理财产品投非标的比例,公募投非标的可行性大幅提升。(3)在过渡期内
允许发行老产品投资新资产和存量未到期资产,将降低表外融资难度,缓解银行回表压
力。(4)表外非标资产的存续和回表受到更大支持。(5)理财新规明确银行理财资金能够投资于权益类资产,允许公募理财产品通过投资各类公募基金间接进入股市。总体
来看,非标业务监管边际放松,将有利于银行非标业务调整平稳过渡,缓解表外融资集
中回表对银行资本水平和实体经济融资造成的冲击。
短期估值修复可期,中长期价值重估存疑:相比4月份出台的资管新规,7月的央行通
知和此次的理财细则使得银行在过渡期内开展理财业务的可操作性大幅提升,这有利于
缓解银行理财业务调整带来的压力,同时也有利于改善目前实体经济融资紧张的现状。但是从中长期来看,非标资产面临的不仅仅是银行理财配置力量的缺失,在中国经济找
到新的增长点之前,在监管核心原则没有改变之前,银行板块难以实现价值重估。
SWS Research Co. Ltd is a subsidiary of ShenwanHongyuan Securities. 99 East Nanjing Road, Shanghai | +86 21 2329 7818 www.swsresearch.com
Industry Research Bringing China to the World
Investment highlight:
The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) officially promulgated rules on
banks’ wealth management businesses on 28 September, following which, on 7 October, the
People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a cut to its required reserves ratio (RRR) of 1ppt,
applicable tolarge commercial banks, joint stock commercial banks, urban commercial banks and
non-county rural commercial banks and effective from 15 October. The rules keep control over
wealth management products (WMPs)tight, largely in line with the previously released draft,
although we note some loosening in the in 4Q, raising the prospect of a valuation improvement.
Tight WMP control. The regulation forbids commercial banks to offer “rigid” payments, either on
principlesor yields,in WMPs.As of end 2017, listed banks recorded a total WMP balance of
Rmb3.4tn, while off-balance sheet WMP amounted to Rmb15.8tn; on-balance sheet WMPs
represent just 14.5% of total WMP (3.1% of total deposits). The regulation may lead to rising
reserves and provisioning requirements, but we see impact as limited. The regulation also set strict
requirements on bank WMPs invested in alternative asset classes. As of end-August 2018,
outstanding bank WMP without guaranteed principle reached Rmb22.3tn, of which 70% was
invested in bonds, deposits and money market instruments; a further 15% was invested in
alternative debt assets.Finally, the regulation requires bank to maintain a minimum durationfor
closed WMPs of longer than 90 days, and closed WMPs(or the nearest date on which WMPs open)