2016 MCM Problem B 原题及翻译
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2016 MCM Problem B
Space Junk
The amount of small debris in orbit around earth has been a growing concern. It is estimated that more than 500,000 pieces of space debris, also called orbital debris, are currently being tracked as potential hazards to space craft. The issue itself became more widely discussed in the news media when the Russian satellite Kosmos-2251 and the USA satellite Iridium-33 collided on 10 February, 2009.
A number of methods to remove the debris have been proposed. These methods include small, space-based water jets and high energy lasers used to target specific pieces of debris and large satellites designed to sweep up the debris, among others. The debris ranges in size and mass from paint flakes to abandoned satellites. The debris’ h igh velocity orbits make capture difficult.
Develop a time-dependent model to determine the best alternative or combination of alternatives that a private firm could adopt as a commercial opportunity to address the space debris problem. Your model should include quantitative and/or qualitative estimates of costs, risks, benefits, as well as other important factors. Your model should be able to assess independent alternatives as well as combinations of alternatives and be able to explore a variety of import ant “What if?” scenarios.
Using your model, determine whether an economically attractive opportunity exists or no such opportunity is possible. If a viable commercial opportunity exists as an alternative solution, provide a comparison of the different options for removing debris, and include a specific recommendation as to how the debris should be removed. If no such opportunity is possible, then provide innovative alternatives for avoiding collisions.
In addition to the required one-page summary for your MCM submission, your report must include a two-page Executive Summary that describes the options considered and major modeling results, and provides a recommendation for a particular action, combination of actions, or no action, as appropriate from your work. The Executive Summary should be written for high level policy makers and news media analysts who do not have a technical background. 2016 MCM
问题B
太空垃圾
地球附近的在轨小碎片数量已日益受到关注。
据估计，目前监测到有超过50万块的空间碎片，也被称为轨道碎片，对空间飞船造成了潜在危害。
当俄罗斯卫星Kosmos-2251和美国卫星Iridium-33在2009年2月10日相撞后，这个问题本身，成为新闻媒体更加广泛讨论的话题。
已经提出许多方法用于消除碎片。
这些方法包括小的、基于空间的水射流和高能激光器，用于消除碎片的特定部分；大型卫星旨在清扫碎片，等等。
从大小和质量方面，碎片小到漆片，大到被废弃的卫星。
碎片的高速轨道造成捕获困难。
开发一个依赖时间的模型，确定最佳的alternative或者combination of alternatives，
提供给一个私有公司采用，作为一个商业机会来解决太空垃圾问题。
你的模型应该包含对成本、风险、收益，以及其他重要因素的定量和/或定性估计。
你的模型应该能够评估独立alternatives以及combinations of alternatives，并能够探索各种重要的“What if?”情景。
使用你的模型，确定是否存在经济上有吸引力的机会，或者根本没有这样的机会。
如果一个可行的商业机会存在可以作为一个alternative solution，提供用于去除碎片的不同options的比较，并包括一个如何去除碎片的特定建议。
如果没有这样可能的机会，那么提供用于避免碰撞的创新方案。
除了需要提交的一页纸的summary，你的报告必须包括一份两页纸的Executive Summary，描述考虑的options和主要模拟结果，并为一项特定行动，或者行动的组合，或者不采取行动，根据你们的工作，提供了一个合理的建议。
执行摘要应该是写给高层决策者和新闻媒体分析师，他们并不具有技术背景。
